European Tribune

LQD : 1215 and all that

by Helen
Wed Apr 2nd, 2008 at 01:17:09 PM EST

Steve Richards wrote an illuminating column in the Independent last week about the probable line of reasoning used by Tony Blair to justify the war in Iraq.

When there are highly controversial policy areas, Labour worries hugely that the Conservatives might be on the more popular side of the argument. It is determined always to keep Rupert Murdoch's newspapers on board. It is fearful of its own past, including perceptions that it was anti-America and soft on defence............

If he stayed close to the US on Iraq, he could never be accused of being anti-American and indiscriminately pro-European. On this basis alone, Mr Blair was never going to break with George Bush over an issue as multi-layered in its complexity as Iraq. It was too risky...........................

Yet Mr Blair supported Mr Bush partly because of where it left him in relation to the US, Europe, the Conservatives, his party's vote-losing past and the media. It was, from his fearfully defensive perspective, the least bad option.


Or, to put it bluntly, Blair went to war to for electoral considerations. My excerpts do the argument poor justice but it is laid bare. It explains so much of what was done then and later, the ridiculous sending in of tanks to Heathrow, the increasing length of detention without trial, the enthusiastic embrace of Guantanamo. All done to impress a Sun-reading public that they were safe with Tony.

Which brings us now to Gordon Brown, the current PM and as determined as Blair to avoid being outflanked on security issues by the Tories. So he has attemptied to raise the detention-without-charge limit from 28 days, which is already the longest in the West by some margin, to 42. This gradual rise strikes to the heart of habeas corpus; the UK doesn't have a Constitution but the nearest thing we have is the Magna Carta of 1215 and the prohibition against detention without trial is central to it. So Brown he failed to learn the central lesson of Blair's defeat over 90 day detentions, the worm has turned and enough is enough.

Has there been any evidence such a raise is required ? Simon Jenkins in the Guardian says no;-

Unfortunately for Brown, 42-day detention has stuck in the throats of virtually every independent voice, far beyond the usual suspects. It is opposed by the Conservative and Liberal Democrat leaderships. It is unsupported by senior members of the security establishment such as the head of counter-terrorism at the Crown Prosecution Service, Sue Heming, who should know. The Metropolitan police chief, Sir Ian Blair, though reportedly in favour, could offer no evidence in support to parliament, nor can the government's spineless security adviser, Lord West, who was a sceptic on 42 days until leaned on by Downing Street.

The bill is opposed by the former attorney general, Lord Goldsmith, the former lord chancellor, Lord Falconer, the former lord chief justice, Lord Woolf, and the former head of the Met, Lord Condon. Lord Dear could not find a fellow police chief in favour. Brown's bible, the Daily Mail, is against it, as is the Daily Telegraph. As many as 52% of Labour supporters think the bill will aid terrorism and just 9% back it.

Steve Richards again (in a different essay);-

Last summer, when he was successfully portraying himself as the apolitical father of the nation, the debate over detaining suspects without charge must have seemed politically attractive. Probably, Mr Brown calculated that he could succeed where Mr Blair had failed, reinforcing another part of his pre-election strategy of appearing more Blairite than Mr Blair.

Right-wing newspapers would support him. The move was popular with voters. The Tories would look "soft" on terror and be in the "wrong position over this" (a favourite Brownite phrase in relation to the Conservatives and policy areas).

Mr Brown thought he had a way of pulling off the move, reassuring liberals that there would be more parliamentary scrutiny while wooing those who supported Mr Blair's stance in the first place. This was his third way. No doubt he assumed that, in the early days of his leadership, goodwill and a sense that he was less messianic in relation to these issues would be enough to help him prevail. The father of the nation would have made us safer while displaying a fresh concern for civil liberties........................

But crude political calculations can mix easily with loftier thoughts. Like Mr Blair, Mr Brown has a tendency to use legislation because of its symbolic value, as if Parliament was little more than a newsroom. Both of them think all the time in terms of headlines, how things will be perceived.

As a double whammy it looks as if the Government will lose the vote (over increasing detentions to 42 days). If that happens Mr Brown would have tried to please everyone and ended pleasing no one, as Mr Blair managed to do on the much larger canvass of the war in Iraq. Mr Brown would be more culpable as he had no need to act, while, as I argued last week, Mr Blair was trapped either way the moment President Bush had decided to remove Saddam.

Shabby instincts for political advantage are driving this dishevelled Government. It's no surprise that the Tory opposition are doing so well at the polls. Brown is an unprincipled coward and both he and Blair's decisions reveal how the New Labour project was always a hollow electoral machine with no thought of what power was for or how it might improve the country.

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This is what happens when you do things not because you believe in them, not because objective evidence points towards them, but because you want to wrong foot the opposition.  You become more like the opposition themselves, and the overton window takes another step to the right.  This is why Clintonian "triangulation" is being rejected in the US.  This is why a conviction politician such as Obama is being embraced.  This is why Churchill/Thatcher - whatever you might think of them as politicians - are remembered as leaders whereas Blair is considered a poodle.  Wrong footing the opposition is ok as an occasional tactic, employed as a strategy, it causes people to forget why they voted for you in the first place.  You are worse than the opposition because at least they are standing up for their beliefs.  You are betraying your own side.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Wed Apr 2nd, 2008 at 01:35:02 PM EST
You are worse than the opposition because at least they are standing up for their beliefs.

yeah, but they play at that game too, with cameron pretending to be mr. environment, outlefting the lefties...

not hard to do with the gutless wonders labour has left, now claire short has split, especially only symbolically...

thanks helen, this one was made for your scalpel.

bunch of sleazy opportunists, dressing up their purely expedient moves with lofty rhetoric, debasing language and any shreds of ideals  as they go.

they think we can't see through them, and their pasteboard ploys, because they've convinced themselves they're so swift, surrounded as they are by sycophantic yes-men.

thanks to analysis like this, their games become so pathetically predictable.

i'd love to see a pol running on truth for a change, but how would he/she make a dent against such a monolithic, self-indulgent idiocy?

Peace is not the absence of war -- peace is the absence of fear. Ursula Franklin

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Wed Apr 2nd, 2008 at 10:03:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
While it would be nice to think that Obama is something other than a classic triangulator in the Clinton mold, and while I can certainly understand why masses of people seem to want to think that, I'm afraid I'll be convinced that there's real leadership there, real fight against the corporations and financiers, only when I see my first example of it.  In fact, it might require more than one example.  I'm not saying I won't vote for him if it comes to that; only that I've lowered my expectations.
by keikekaze on Thu Apr 3rd, 2008 at 03:52:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'll reiterate my theory that the political landscapes of modern democracies are evolving into two closely matched camps chasing the "median voter" on the key issue of (literally) the day, and doing so quite efficiently given the progress in market research and propaganda. Each of the main camps will have a "core" party and a number of satellite parties, except possibly in first-past-the-post systems. The satelite parties are single-issue or policy-oriented, represent niche pockets of voters, and serve to move the Overton window. The two "core" parties tend to have virtually indistinguishable platforms and actual policies, and differ mostly in the core constituency they "tribally" represent.

It'd be nice if the battle were only against the right wingers, not half of the left on top of that — François in Paris
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Apr 3rd, 2008 at 04:56:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes and no.  The problem with the two major parties competing for the centre to such a degree that they become almost indistinguishable  is that people say "a plague on both your houses", *they're all the same" and turn-out plummets.  

With turnout generally going down it helps sometimes to polarise an issue to mobilise your base - thus Reagan/Thatcher went far right but got elected because in a low poll (or an unfair first past the post system) you don't really need a majority to actively support you, just mass indifference and a very active minority who will fund/mobilise and actually turn out the vote.  (Do I recall Thatcher getting elected with 25% of the vote of the total electorate?)

The Lib Dems are being squeezed by Blair/Brown/Cameron triangulation which depends on Labour/Tories managing to retain the residual loyalty of their core voters (and the generalised perception that in most constituencies they haven't much of a chance anyway).

But its a dangerous game.  If Cameron/Brown disillusion their core voters sufficiently, the increasing floating vote could go anywhere in protest - Lib Dems, Greens, UKIP, BNP etc. - and once the majority is flipped - and the Lib Dems become one of the big two -its a different game entirely.

I have this theory that middle England may reject the Scotsman Brown - paving the way for greater Scottish alienation and possibly even  independence.  Then the Tories will be shown in their true colours, as English Nationalists with a faddish fringe that can embrace environmentalism in the same way the country squire wants to preserve his grouse moor.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Thu Apr 3rd, 2008 at 10:15:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, your analysis is probably correct. Brown will almost certainly lose the next election because the Labour support is slumping in disillusion. We are in Republican vs republican-lite territory now; if you want a republican you'll take the red-meat version.

But people who want an alternative have nothing on offer. I am distraught that the Lib-Dems have chosen exactly the wrong moment to re-invent themselves as yet another economically neo-liberal party.

Yet Scotland (and Wales) are going in different directions, with policies that are very different and becoming very popular. they will increasingly refuse to take the Conservative policies for Great Britain. Equally the conservatives will cement in their electoral advantage by barring Scottish MPs from voting on English issues. Independence will be the logical next step, and I wish them well.

Meanwhile the loss will cause the Labour Party will disintegrate. Too many genuinely hate the right wing stance Blair/Brown have taken, yet know history will be harsh at their cowardice in failing to confront it before it was too late. Following it to some sort of illogical conclusion of wishful thinking, I see a three way split;-

One third becoming tories.

One third becoming some sort of "Real Labour" socialist revival, featuring assorted clueless sad gits who haven't noticed Marx is discredited.

One third joining hte Lib Dems and becoming the official opposition. By 2016/7 the Lib Dems could well be forming a government.

But too many last chances will have slipped away in the meantime, I foresee a difficult thrid decade for the UK in the 21st century.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Apr 3rd, 2008 at 10:47:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Helen:
I foresee a difficult thrid decade for the UK in the 21st century.

Impressive!  A prophet in her own land...! :-)

On the other hand, the Tories could also easily be discredited if they are perceived as having precipitated the Break up of the UK.

However the upmarket brand normally has greater resilience than the cheapo one - even in times of economic stringency.  Count on old fashioned snobbery to keep the Tories in power even if they are demonstrably incompetent

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Thu Apr 3rd, 2008 at 11:16:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I can't see the tories suffering by the break up of the UK because they are, as you say, the English National party. It wouldn't be hard to re-construct their attitude as getting rid of ungrateful Celts.

Mind you, they'd have to do something about the official name, The Conservative and Unionist party

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Apr 3rd, 2008 at 11:24:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Frank Schnittger:
Yes and no.  The problem with the two major parties competing for the centre to such a degree that they become almost indistinguishable  is that people say "a plague on both your houses", *they're all the same" and turn-out plummets.  
I never said that was not a problem, I was just describing the reality of the situation as I see it.

That said, 1) voters would vote for the "core" parties on "tribal identification" (think Fine Gael/Fianna Fail); 2) under proportional-representation systems, disaffected "core" voters will just vote for third parties (think SPD defectors to Die Linke).

It'd be nice if the battle were only against the right wingers, not half of the left on top of that — François in Paris

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Apr 3rd, 2008 at 12:03:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Or, to put it bluntly, Blair went to war to for electoral considerations. My excerpts do the argument poor justice but it is laid bare. It explains so much of what was done then and later, the ridiculous sending in of tanks to Heathrow, the increasing length of detention without trial, the enthusiastic embrace of Guantanamo. All done to impress a Sun-reading public that they were safe with Tony.

Kissinger, that wily old villain, used to say that "Israel has no foreign policy, only domestic politics."  It seems to be a syndrome for nation-states -- they can easily fall into a political tailspin where the only thing that matters is the election cycle and the management of internal public opinion, a kind of mass solipsism.  The mentality of a garrison state is both an outgrowth of this condition and very conducive to it...  A very dangerous "Truman Show" kind of mentality where nothing Outside is really real, it's all just a backdrop for political struggles Inside.


The difference between theory and practise in practise ...

by DeAnander (de_at_daclarke_dot_org) on Thu Apr 3rd, 2008 at 12:56:33 AM EST


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