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by Migeru
Tue May 20th, 2008 at 05:51:57 PM EST
I commented after the recent Spanish general election that Rajoy, the PP leader, had won everything except for the election itself: more votes, higher vote percentage, more seats than in 2004. However, the party is planning a Congress for next month, and those faithful to Aznar, the hardliners on nationalism and terrorism, and their allied press, have been questioning Rajoy's leadership and laying the groundwork for a challenge to his leadership by Madrid regional president Esperanza Aguirre. Yesterday, former PM Aznar joined the fray on the side of the hardliners, as expected.
| Aznar apoya a los 'duros' del PP frente a un Rajoy que quiere "mover" el partido · ELPAÍS.com | | [Former Spanish PM] Aznar supports the hardliners of [Spain's] PP against [party leader] Rajoy who wants to "move" the party - ElPais.com | | La crisis del Partido Popular | | The crisis of the [Spanish] People's Party | | [...] El ex presidente reivindica la confianza y los principios del PP, como hizo San Gil - El líder del PP cree que el PSOE no da motivos para criticar su política antiterrorista | | [...] The former PM defends the PP's self-confidence and principles, as [the leader of the Basque PP, Maria] San Gil did - The PP leader [Rajoy] thinks that the PSOE is not giving reasons to criticise its counter-terrorism policy |
Maria San Gil is a prominent Basque politician who takes a very confrontational stance against Basque nationalism, partly motivated by the fact that ETA murdered her mentor gregorio Ordóñez in her (and others') presence years ago. | Hasta ahora, Mariano Rajoy tenía como rival a un creciente y voluntarioso equipo de miembros del sector duro. Desde ayer, todo el PP sabe que el líder tiene enfrente a un miembro de la primera división, un miura casi imposible de controlar: José María Aznar. El ex presidente, que había mantenido un discreto silencio incluso después de la crisis de María San Gil -fue su esposa, Ana Botella, quien defendió a la dirigente vasca-, lo rompió ayer con estruendo: "En la vida política, la confianza y la defensa de los principios es siempre esencial". Palabras casi calcadas a las de San Gil, que ha lanzado un órdago a Rajoy porque, según le dijo a la cara, ya no confía en que él defienda los principios del PP. | | Up to now, Mariano Rajoy was facing a growing and willful team of hardliners. Since yesterday, the whole PP knows that the leader is facing a top-division opponent, a raging bull difficult to control: Jose Maria Aznar. The former PM, who had maintained a discreet silence even after the crisis involving Maria San Gil - it was his wife, Ana Botella, that defended the Basque leader -, broke it yesterday with a bang: "In political life, self-confidence and the defence of one's principles is always essential". Words almost copied from those of San Gil, who is betting the house against Rajoy because, as she told him to his face, she no longer trust him to defend the PP's principles. |
Below the fold, a full commented translation of the El Pais piece.
| Aznar entraba así en la guerra interna del PP, colocándose, como se esperaba, del lado de los duros que critican a Rajoy por su "tacticismo", una palabra que utilizó ayer el ex presidente. Y, sobre todo, reivindicaba su forma de hacer política, resumida con una idea que ayer repitió -"sin complejos"- frente a las supuestas dudas de Rajoy. | | Thus, Aznar entered the PP's internal warfare taking, as expected, a position on the side of the hardliners who criticize Rajoy for his "tacticism", a word that the former PM used yesterday. And, above all, he defended his own way of doing politics, summed up in one idea that he repeated yesterday - "without complexes" - as opposed to Rajoy's doubts. |
The hardliners take a position of ideological purity, and accuse Rajoy of triangulating. The fact is that Rajoy didn't triangulate at all before the general election, though it seemed at times that he wasn't fully committed to staying on message as dictated by the PP's allied press, and was weary of four years of confrontation. "Tacticism" (i.e., "triangulation") is shaping to become a codeword for people to place themselves in the hardline faction. | El líder del PP, que sabía que se iba a enfrentar a otro doloroso lunes -además de Aznar se esperaba la gresca en el PP vasco por la convocatoria del congreso interno-, decidió, por una vez, adelantarse. | | The PP leader, who knew he would face another painful Monday - apart from Aznar [joining the fray], a fight was expected in the Basque PP due to the convening of the internal congress -, decided, for once, to act preemptively. |
Here, El Pais revels in Rajoy's string of difficult Mondays, as well as qualifying his pre-emptive strike against Aznar by saying it is out of character for Rajoy to act decisively. Note how the following paragraph starts by suggesting that showing himself and taking questions from the media is unusual for Rajoy. | En contra de lo habitual, Rajoy presentó una conferencia del barón gallego Alberto Núñez Feijóo -uno de sus más fieles apoyos- y aceptó preguntas. A la primera sobre la situación interna, lanzó una parrafada que parecía preparada con un mensaje claro de respuesta a los duros: "Yo soy el que he sido siempre, pero creo que en la vida de cuando en cuando hay que moverse. Lo único que no podemos hacer es no movernos y estar siempre en el mismo sitio, porque eso no lo hace nadie en ninguna faceta de la vida". | | Against his habits, Rajoy introduced a presentation by the Galician 'Baron' Alberto Núñez Feijóo - one of his most faithful supporters -, and took questions. At the first one on the [party's] internal situation he released a seemingly planned tirade with a clear message in response to the hardliners: "I am the same I have always been, but I think that in life one has to move every so often. The only thing we cannot do is never move and always be in the same position, because nobody does that in any aspect of life". | | Frente a quienes le critican el acercamiento al Gobierno en materia antiterrorista -hubo foto unitaria después del último atentado-, Rajoy esgrimió un argumento: "Nadie discute que apoyemos al Gobierno, si es que el Gobierno lógicamente vuelve a los principios del Pacto Antiterrorista. No tengo ningún dato en esta legislatura que me diga que no va a volver a esos principios. La mayoría de los españoles quiere que apoyemos al Gobierno en este tema". | | Against those who criticize his approach to the Government on counter-terrorism matters - there was a show-of-unity photo taken after the latest [ETA] attack -, Rajoy wielded an argument: "Nobody challenges that we support the government, if the Government is returning to the principles of the Counter-terrorism Pact. I don't have any data in the present [parliamentary] term telling me that [the Government] is not going to return to those principles. The majority of Spaniards want us to support the Government on this matter". |
Actually, to show unity with the government is a sea change after four years of acrimonious confrontation and even accusations that ZP was selling Spain cheap to ETA. So these developments are quite significant. Note, however, that the article suggests there has been criticism of this approach from the PP's ranks as this is not "on message". | El líder dejaba claro así que no puede ser duro en el asunto antiterrorista, como le reclaman, porque el Gobierno está haciendo lo que siempre le han pedido: mano dura contra ETA y Batasuna. Sin embargo, los matices en el PP se ven cada vez más claros. El domingo, Esperanza Aguirre, la más clara alternativa a Rajoy, exigía a José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero que no reciba al lehendakari hoy en La Moncloa, como protesta por la aprobación de una moción sobre la tortura en el Parlamento vasco. Rajoy, por el contrario, no le pidió que no lo reciba, sino que le escuche para decirle "no a sus ensoñaciones". | | Thus the [party] leader made it clear that he cannot be hard [on the Government] on counterterrorism, as is being demanded of him, because the Government is doing what they [the PP] have always demanded: heavy hand against ETA and [its political arm] Batasuna. However, nuances within the PP are becoming ever clearer. On Sunday, [Madrid region president] Esperanza Aguirre, the clearest alternative to Rajoy, demanded from [PM] José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero that he not receive the Basque regional president at [the PM's residence at] La Moncloa, in protest over the approval of a motion on torture in the Basque Parliament. Rajoy, on the contrary, didn't ask [ZP] not to receive him, but to listen to him in order to tell him "no to his daydreaming". |
Esperanza Aguirre is clearly out of line here asking the Prime Minister to refuse to receive a regional president, but in fact Rajoy would have been expected to make similar outlandish demands before all through the previous parliamentary term. Note also that Esperanza Aguirre is the presumptive hardline challenger to Rajoy's leadership and so she would be the one chosen to make these statements. | Las dos almas del PP, cada vez más divididas, quedaron en evidencia no sólo por las palabras de Aznar, también por su auditorio. El ex presidente inauguró un curso de FAES, la fundación que preside, para recordar los 10 años de entrada de España en el euro. Y allí no había ningún miembro del equipo de Rajoy. Ni de los habituales de Génova, ni de la actual dirección, como Miguel Arias-Cañete, ni del grupo parlamentario. Sólo Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo, significativamente la única representante del ala dura en la dirección del grupo parlamentario. Tampoco estaban personajes moderados pero distanciados de Rajoy como Juan Costa -que suspendió su anunciada presencia a última hora- y Rodrigo Rato, que a pesar del asunto -el euro- no asistió. Por el contrario, Aznar contó entre su auditorio con Esperanza Aguirre, Ignacio González, la mano derecha de ésta, y varios consejeros de Madrid. | | The two souls of the PP, increasingly separated, became evident no only because of Aznar's words, but also because of his audience. The former PM opened a course by the FAES, the foundation he presides, to commemorate the 10 years since Spain joined the Euro. And there was not one member of Rajoy's team there. Not even the usual suspects from [the Party HQ at] Genova [St.], nor from the parliamentary group. Only Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo, significant for being the only representative of the hardliners in the directory of the parliamentary group. Absent were also moderate characters estranged from Rajoy such as Juan Costa - who withdrew his pre-announced presence at the last minute - and Rodrigo Rato, who didn't come despite the topic - the Euro - didn't attend. On the contrary, Aznar counted among his audience Esperanza Aguirre, her right-hand mand Ignacio González, and several other members of the Madrid regional cabinet. |
It is an open secret that Rodrigo Rato didn't get along with Aznar, and rumour has it that he accepted the position of IMF chair as a way to avoid a damaging contest to succeed Aznar, which Rajoy won by default. When Rato left the IMF early for "personal reasons" last year it was widely assumed he was positioning himself to replace Rajoy but this was on the assumption that Rajoy would have remained loyal to Aznar and on the hardliner camp. With Rajoy taking a moderate stance it is unlikely that Rato will enter the fray. In any case, it is a significant snub though not unexpected that Aznar's finance minister of 8 years would miss an event organized by Aznar to commemorate the Euro. | Hace un par de semanas, cuando se empezó a lanzar la idea en los mentideros del PP de que Aznar estaba muy preocupado y molesto con la gestión de Rajoy, un diputado aznarista señaló a EL PAÍS. "Nadie puede hablar en boca de Aznar. Cuando quiera entrar, lo hará, y será con estruendo". El ex presidente cumplió ayer las previsiones de este parlamentario. En algunos momentos incluso llegó a usar la fórmula del "no me resigno" con la que Esperanza Aguirre hizo temblar a todo el PP en su amago de presentación de candidatura alternativa. | | A few weeks ago, when the idea started to be thrown around in the PP rumour mills that Aznar was very worried and botherd by Rajoy's management, an Aznarite MP indicated to El Pais "Nobody can put workd in Aznar's mouth. When he feels like entering [the fray] he will, and it will be with a bang". The former PM met this MP's expectations yesterday. At times he even used the expression "I do not resign myself" with which Esperanza Aguirre shook the entire PP in her feint of presenting an alternative candidacy [to the party's leadership]. | | Aznar no citó en ningún momento a Rajoy, y más bien se refirió a la época de la entrada de España en el euro, pero sus consejos sonaban como cuchilladas contra el líder, porque hurgaban en la herida abierta por las acusaciones de quienes dudan de Rajoy. | | Aznar never mentioned Rajoy, and referred rather to the period when Spain joined the Euro, but his advice sounded like stabs against the leader, because they dug in the wound open by the accusations of those who doubt Rajoy. |
El Pais again enjoys the internal strife in the PP and reads meaning even in what was not said. | El ex presidente aseguró que uno de los criterios que han inspirado su actuación en política es el de "buscar la integración y la suma en torno a objetivos compartidos ya fueran éstos la refundación del PP o, ya desde el Gobierno, la incorporación al euro". Precisamente a Rajoy le acusan, especialmente Jaime Mayor y Francisco Álvarez-Cascos, dos personas con mucho poder en la época de Aznar, de no contar con todo el partido, de refugiarse en los más fieles y dejar fuera a gente de mucho peso. | | The former PM asserted that one of the criteria that inspired his political actions is that of "seeking integration and adding people around shared goals be it the refoundation of the PP or, once in Government, joining the Euro". Precisely, Rajoy is accused especially by Jaime Mayor and Francisco Álvarez-Cascos, two people with a lot of power in Aznar's time, of not counting on the whole party, of seeking refuge in those most loyal to him, and of leaving out some heavyweights. |
Jaime Mayor was Minister of the Interior in Aznar's first cabinet, then bid unsuccessfully for the Basque government (thinking you can win a Basque regional election coming from the Interior Ministry borders on the delusional) and is now an MEP. Alvarez-Cascos comes from Asturias and was Minister of the Interior, Minister of kickbacksInfrastructure and one of Aznar's vicepresidents (Rato being the other one). He's always been a hardliner. To me, it appears that this is a case of projection. Aznar got rid of older cadres who could have been troublesome (such as Miguel Herrero de Miñón), surrounded himself with loyalists and even alienated people like his first Labour minister Manuel Pimentel as well as cracking down on moderate catalan PP leader Aleix Vidal Quadras (now in exile as an MEP) who was so beaten down that he even replaced the Catalan Aleix with the Madrid-"posh" form Alejo. | Rajoy sólo recibió un ligero respiro cuando, unas horas después, uno de los que siempre están en todas las quinielas para sucederle, Alberto Ruiz-Gallardón, le prometió en público fidelidad, al menos hasta el congreso de junio. Gallardón recordó que Rajoy le dejó fuera de las listas al Congreso, pero insistió en que él es el líder para este momento. Casi todo el partido asume que Rajoy tendrá una reválida en las elecciones gallegas y europeas previstas para 2009. | | Rajoy only got a break when, a few hours later, one of those who are always in all the bets on who will succeed him, Alberto Ruiz-Gallardón, pledged loyalty in public, at least until the June congress. Gallardón recalled that Rajoy left him out of the party's lists for the recent Parliamentary elections, but insisted that [Rajoy] is the leader for the moment. Almost all the party assumes that Rajoy will have an exam in the Galician and European elections scheduled for 2009. |
Rajoy has returned the favour by announcing that Gallardón will be part of his slate in the leadership contest in the upcoming party congress in June. It should be noted that Gallardón is reviled by the hardline faction and the PP's allied press. Being mayor of Madrid, and with the Madrid regional president Esperanza Aguirre being the presumptive hardline candidate for leader, it will come as no surprise to you that there was an extremely virulent confrontation between Gallardón's and Aguirre's factions for the leadership of the Madrid regional party. Also, Gallardón's attempt to get on the party lists for the general election was widely interpreted as an attempt to position himself as a moderate challenger to then-hardline Rajoy in anticipation of an electoral defeat and a leadership contest. Aguirre would have been at a disadvantage as a hardline candidate to replace Rajoy if Gallardón had been in parliament and she not, and so she manoeuvered to prevent Gallardón from getting on the lists. He then threatened with resigning as Mayor after the election, which hasn't happened. | Y mientras, aún retumbaba la cantinela de Aznar. "Nosotros renovamos España sumando a muchos y no prescindiendo de nadie"... En el PP ya se ha instalado la broma de que la nueva canción oficial del partido será I don't like mondays, un éxito de Bob Geldof que fue número uno en Inglaterra en 1979. | | Meanwhile, Aznar's refrain still resounded. "We renewed Spain by adding people and not doing without anyone"... In the PP they are already joking that the new official song of the party will be I don't like Mondays, a hit by Bob Geldof which was #1 in England in 1979. |
So, how is this going to resolve itself? There will probably be a hardline leaderhip challenge to Rajoy with Aguirre as candidate. Right now I will put the odds at 50/50. If Rajoy wins I don't expect the harliners to accept the result and I predict a splinter party forming to the right of the PP with Rajoy leading the moderates to a more centrist position. If Aguirre wins, I doubt the moderates have the spine to form a splinter, though many of them may leave active politics if not the party altogether. Also, a hardline win will mean the PP will no longer try to attract centrist votes and it may all but disappear from the nationalist regions. In any case, the right will win fewer seats in future elections because of either reduced support having taken a more extreme position, or because Spain's electoral system is skewed towards larger parties and splitting the vote loses seats.
But maybe this is all wishful thinking on my part. What is undisputable is that the PP is living interesting times.
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