Rhetoric for the passive, reforms for the active

by DoDo
Wed May 28th, 2008 at 07:06:31 AM EST

Looking over my diaries on Hungarian politics, it's apparent I spent more ire on main opposition party Fidesz than the governing Socialists. "But DoDo," you may ask, "even if you hate nationalism and have bad memories, surely you are closer to their economic platform than the 'reformist'-dominated so-called 'left-liberals' on the other side?" And point me say to my Referendum question diary. You'd also mention their civil rights platform.

My answer would be that socialistic rhetoric is all nice and well, but I don't trust Fidesz for a second to govern accordingly once they get back in power. Now I can bring the latest leaked tape scandal in Hungary as evidence.

I will also cover recent developments on police brutality cases.


You'll remember that the far-right kicked off its riots in Budapest after someone leaked a speech of the PM at a closed-door Socialist Party meeting, the "I lied!" speech (see IdiotSavant's diary with my comments). Now a closed-door leak hit former (and prospective future) PM and Fidesz leader Viktor Orbán.

A few weeks ago, Orbán met the students of a politologist. He was surprisingly open about his views. He was full of self-confidence/self-praise/hubris, he used some strong language about the current PM - and also talked about his plans for when he gets back in power in 2010.

Orbán suggested that in the first two years, "a lot of people will be hurt in many ways". For after the two hard years, Orbán projected the standard right-wing programme of helping the middle-class and those active in the labour force. As for those beyond - pensions would be freezed.

So an austerity programme, and worse than what they opposed the current government in. And current retired and otherwise inactive supporters be damned. In fact, he cynically said that he didn't really want to win in 2006 (when he promised all kinds of spending, including a 14th-month pension), knowing the bad state of the economy; and that he thinks that after four years of talk from Gyurcsány about how bad the economy is, people will accept the austerity programme from him.

Government supporters and neoliberals took this as another proof that, you guessed it, "there is no alternative" to the 'reforms'...

Orbán also said he'd stop major state spending, and re-start only if re-negotiation gets at much lower prices: he named highway construction (well I'd support that actually) and the over-budget Budapest subway line 4. On the latter, he thinks Russian firms would have done it much cheaper; and he wants Chinese, Arab and Russian capital - funny contrast with recent anti-Gazprom rhetoric.


Orbán also mentioned the far-right paramilitary, the Hungarian Guard: he thinks the solution is more policemen in the countryside, and he would do with the Guard what Horthy [between-world-wars head of state] did to the Arrowcrossers [hardcore Hungarian fascists]: "give them two slaps, and hunt them home". [Note that later on, the Nazis blackmailed Horthy into making the Arrowcrosser leader PM.] So police is only evil if you don't control it, and the far-right is untouchable only until voting day.


A final juicy tidbit: apparently, one of the politologist students caught Orbán exposing that he heard the tape of Gyurcsány's "I lied!" speech before it got into the media (but, ever the seasoned politician, Orbán reacted with "then maybe my memory is wrong [about the timeline]").

:: :: :: :: ::

Meanwhile, there is actually some shift away from neoliberalism: the new Socialist-only minority government (see diary on the break with the liberals) went on with 'reform'-stalling corrections in the wake of the referendum, and yesterday, parliament voted with four-party support (only the liberals against) to abolish most of the brand-new, not-yet-in-effect healthcare privatisation law.

:: :: :: :: ::

Another issue where I am closer to Fidesz rhetoric than so-called 'left-liberal' rhetoric and practice is opposition to police state measures. (A civil resistance act by Fidesz is referred to in this diary.)

The latest defeat of the police/government line on this front is a new ruling by the Constitutional Court.

Since the riots, police dispersed a number of protests on the basis that they weren't announced three days ahead; in accordance with the law on assembly (with the reasoning that police should have time organising security and traffic diversions). And not just rioting far-righters. (And they tolerated the anti-fascist protest, 'outraging' the fascists.) But today, the Constitutional Court annulled the section on the police obligation of automatic dispersal.

Meanwhile, the trial into the case of a high-profile case of police brutality ended without success.

As I reported, when police hunting far-right rioters proceeded to attack peaceful people leaving from Fidesz's mass rally on the 50th day of the 1956 Revolution, they also beat Fidesz member of parliament Máriusz Révész unconscious. The trial failed to find the then police bosses responsible, or to identify the policemen clubbing Révész.

Here is a video from Index, in which Révész comments an amateur video from the night; first he is seen walking towards police, then you see the last blow with the baton against the man lying on the pavement (but invisible because of other policemen arround), tovards the end Révész is again visible when trying to stand up. (I spare you a translation of Révész's commentary; he over-interprets the already damning images, with political overtones.)

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Do you have any examples of similarly high-profile leaks of openly sounded views similarly far from official rhetoric in other countries?

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Tue May 27th, 2008 at 02:17:02 PM EST
Ah, to be a fly on the wall...

We had a case in 2002 which has some similarities. A documentary was filmed with hidden cameras as an unknown journalist pretended to be an openly racist voter asking running politicians for their views on the bloody immigrants.

It was released in the lead up to the 2002 election and dented the numbers significantly for Moderaterna (the big right wing party). I think they lost mainly to other parties in the right bloc, so overall election result (Soc.Dems. ruled on) was not much affected.

They filmmakers found politicians from many parties willing to in private damn the immigrants. The reason Moderaterna as hit the worst was in part that the show focused more on them, but also that their aftermath differed. All affected parties condemned (in various trong wording) the politicians in question and in all parties the condemned withdrew their candidacys. Except on guy in Moderaterna who had come off really bad in the program (going off in a clearly racist rant, and then when shown the secretly taped film commented: "eh, well, eh... Thats not me!"), who was a local and popular bigwig who were not going to give up his position. Thus on day 2 of the scandal all parties had manage to withdraw from the spotlight except Moderaterna.

The politicians in question were caught lying (finding somewhere they professed their ardent anti-racism would be an easy task) and resigned. The question left hanging was how many was lying in public and how many simply lied when faced with a voter whos vote appeared up for grabs if they expressed a bit of racism...

by A swedish kind of death on Wed May 28th, 2008 at 09:04:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The main 'left' daily Népszabadság published a first poll (done by also Socialist-close Szonda-Ipsos) on the most headlined points in Orbán's leaked plans, of course finding majorities against.

  • Freezing pensions at the level of inflation: opposed by 65%, including 51% of Orbán's own voters, 70% of the unsure, 53% of even the 18-39-year-old, and of course 83% of the retired.

  • Stopping the construction of Budapest Metro Line 4 [note: no nuance in the question about an eventual re-start after re-contracting, a line now repeated by Fidesz representatives at all levels]: 56% strongly against, including 45% of opposition voters, and even 52% of those least benefitting: inhabitants of other large cities.

  • Stopping highway construction: 55% strongly against (sadly but not unexpectedly to me), including 45% of opposition voters.


*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Wed May 28th, 2008 at 03:05:45 AM EST
The politologist who invited Orbán to this closed meeting is in an awkward situation: not only must he now take into account that anyone he'd invite in the future would be less willing to talk to his students openly, but he is vulnerable to suspicions because he is close to the Socialists himself.

So you can imagine his public outrage at the leak. He rushed to give interviews in right-wing media. He speculated on the basis of erroneous visual details in the news articles (for example: Orbán is said to have drunk a glass of wine, but the politologist says there was no alcoholic bewerage) that the even was taped by outsiders using secretly installed microphones, rather than anyone attending. Right-wing media even turned this into an accusation of the secret service.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Wed May 28th, 2008 at 03:12:34 AM EST
What is left from your account is that he stressed his support for free higher education, for free universal health care, etc.
We don't know what will be his final answer. Given the enormous swing to the left within electorate this game is not over, yet.
by Dr Minorka on Wed May 28th, 2008 at 05:30:47 PM EST
Is this another example of the main two parties triangulating each other to the point where one doesn't know who's right and who's extreme right any longer?

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 28th, 2008 at 06:07:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No. In public, Fidesz is definitely very much on the left economically.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Thu May 29th, 2008 at 04:24:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So this diary is showing that that's just a hypocritical stance to get votes?

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu May 29th, 2008 at 05:01:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes. But Dr. Minorka reminded me that Orbán also suggested no reneging on two key points.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Thu May 29th, 2008 at 05:14:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Fidesz is definitely very much on the left economically.

I mean, apart from occasional rumblings about tax cuts, and being left behind by the economic miralces of our (flat-taxing) neighbours.

Also, since it wake up from the shock of the leak, the Fidesz spin machine geared up. They began to issue rhetoric to the tune that "Orbán said nothing we won't back in public", but of course with lots of added nuance. (So now Orbán says that subway lines are necessary, lots of them, only cheaper - well, yes, with that I totally agree.) And thus rhetoric about actives and the middle class is back in their repertoire.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Thu May 29th, 2008 at 05:40:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
gotta love the region's politics. Poland's closest equivalent - the twins, are actually a bit more genuine in their economic populism in the sense that they have zero interest in economic policy.  Their party does include some with a neoliberal slant, though less than there used to be. It also has plenty who genuinely detest neoliberal policies. In their recent stint in power, they didn't come anywhere near to implementing the full spectrum of their anti-neoliberal campaign promises, but they certainly shifted things to the left from the previous 'left' i.e. post communist government.

The SLD incidentally are the folks who tend to be the most cynical in the contrast between left wing populism and neolib/kleptocratic policies. The PO - that is the hardcore neoliberals who are currently in power, have wound up governing to the left of their opposition era rhetoric - the practical consequences of having the PSL (Peasant Party) as a coalition partner.

Or in other words you've got three main political forces in Poland - the two post-Solidarity groupings, one center left on economics, very right wing on other stuff, the other very right wing on economics and center to center left on other matters. Then there are the post communists who are left on non-economic matters, technically center left on econ, in reality center right.

The Law and Justice camp is also riven between its mainly Pilsudkist leadership (interwar version, not the turn of the century Marxist national liberation incarnation) and a strong Endek (Polish fascist tradition) faction in its rank and file.

by MarekNYC on Thu May 29th, 2008 at 09:56:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know about "etc.", but indeed he seems to keep on to his referendum line on free higher education and healthcare. He reportedly put that in this context:

"Sokaknak fog fájni": Orbán Viktor 2 év kőkemény megszorításra készül"It will hurt many people": Viktor Orbán prepares for 2 years of stone-hard austerity [measures]
Majdani kormányfőként továbbra is az aktívakra akar támaszkodni, a vállalkozókra a középrétegekre, az inaktívak közül pedig olyanokat emelne be, akiket az állami szerepvállalással, az ingyenes felsőoktatással és az ingyenes egészségüggyel meg tud tartani, a márciusi népszavazáson igennel szavazók közül. Az egészségügyről egyébként azt mondta: átalakítanák a jelenlegi rendszert, de az még dilemma, hogy a hozzájárulást adóvá vagy járulékká alakítsák-e át.As future PM, [Orbán] wants to continue with reliance on those active [in the labour force], the middle class; and of the inactives, he would include those from among the Yes voters in the March referendum, whom he can hold to with state ..., free higher education and free healthcare. For that matter, on healthcare, he said: they would change the present system, but it is still a dilemma whether the contributions should be modified into a tax or a contribution.

I haven't yet made up my mind on the significance of the last part.

At any rate, I do hope that that "enormous swing to the left within electorate" you note [was it a swing at all? wasn't the majority 'there' already?] will be sustained, will prove Orbán wrong, and he [or someone else] will have a difficult time selling policies that hurt as necessary to right the economy.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Thu May 29th, 2008 at 04:53:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Er, forgot, I was struggling to find the right equivalent for one term:

whom he can hold to with state ...

state engagement/government involvement.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Thu May 29th, 2008 at 05:13:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I was unable to find an adequate term like "state engagement/involvement", this was the reason of my "etc."...:)
"I haven't yet made up my mind on the significance of the last part." Just like me.
"wasn't the majority 'there' already?]"
Definitely yes. But this majority is growing. - And let me put a smiley here :) -
Much depends on the Hungarian Left. I mean those people who are not part of the terminally ill "left-liberal" establishment. The situation is "open".
by Dr Minorka on Thu May 29th, 2008 at 08:04:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I was unable to find an adequate term like "state engagement/involvement", this was the reason of my "etc."...:)

I read that line to mean that "state engagement/involvement" is not an extra point but pertinent to higher education and healthcare, with a "," used where a ":" would have been clearer. Could be wrong.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Thu May 29th, 2008 at 08:54:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I interpreted it as a rejection of the much propagated principle of self-reliance. But of course could be wrong, too.
by Dr Minorka on Thu May 29th, 2008 at 09:12:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
  • According to speculations both in the right-wing and in the liberal media, the Socialists plan to replace Gyurcsány, probably in the autumn of this year. Supposedly, the change could come once and if the repeat leadership election of the liberals (I reported) results in a new chairman, which could be an opportunity to re-establish the coalition on new terms.

    As for who could replace Gyurcsány, the front runner is supposedly no more Gordon Bajnai, the current head of the oxymoronic ministry for local self-governments (who is a yuppie from the financial sector like Gyurcsány), but Péter Kiss, the grey man currently pulling the strings behind the scenes as minister of the PM's office. I don't like either.

  • Meanwhile, the 'left-liberal' media speculated about Fidesz's plans for the Christian Democrats (KDNP), curently a Potemkin party entirely dependent on and in line with Fidesz. Since in the next elections, Fidesz will likely gain a wide absolute majority on its own, media claim the plans are to put KDNP in the opposition, but re-tailored from its present defender-of-conservative-values role as Christian socialist counter to the future government - to keep economic-left voters from returning to the Socialists.


*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Thu May 29th, 2008 at 05:33:04 AM EST
For those who enjoyed my summary of the longest-running soap opera in Hungarian politics in Für and Deutsch:

Deutsch-Für Tamás has just declared (in the flagship of the Hungarian rainbow press no less) that he is divorcing his second wife after five years together. He claims it has nothing to do with his dispute with his father-in-law over his membership in the Hungarian Guard.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Thu May 29th, 2008 at 10:06:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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