European Tribune

European Salon de News, Discussion et Klatsch - 23. June

by Fran
Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 03:25:12 PM EST

On this date in history:

1889 - Anna Akhmatova, a Russian poet with a largely credited influence on Russian poetry, was born (d. 1966)

More here and here


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by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 03:25:49 PM EST
German Minister Wants More Troops in Afghanistan | Germany | Deutsche Welle | 21.06.2008
German Defense Minister Franz Josef Jung will next week announce plans for the future strength of German troops in Afghanistan, a spokesman said on Saturday, June 21. It's thought another 1,000 troops could be deployed.

Jung wants to increase German deployment in the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) from the current upper limit of 3,500.

 

Media reports have said the figure could rise to 4,500. A defense ministry spokesman said Jung would make clear the exact number at the end of next week.

 

Jung said in a radio interview Saturday that any increase in troop strength would be used for training and civil reconstruction projects.

 

"We want to increase training three-fold. Next year we want to train 7,500 Afghan troops. To achieve this we need to formulate a new upper limit for our mandate which will give German troops greater flexibility," he told German public radio.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 03:30:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Germans to boost Afghan mission

Germany is preparing to send more troops to Afghanistan following repeated requests from the US and other Nato countries, but it is unlikely to give in to pressure to deploy forces in the embattled south of the war-torn country.

(...)

German troops are deployed as part of the Isaf peacekeeping force, mostly in the relatively stable north. Angela Merkel, the chancellor, said at the time that she had "absolutely no time" for such a redeployment, arguing that "continuity and stability" were more important.

This stance has essentially not changed, according to government officials and defence experts in Berlin. The defence ministry refused to comment.



In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 03:50:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
World's Biggest Solar Plant Goes Online in Germany | Germany | Deutsche Welle | 22.06.2008
A solar power plant described by its operators as the biggest in the world began generating electricity at the site of a former East German air base on Sunday, June 22.

The Waldpolenz Solar Park is built on a surface area equivalent to 200 soccer fields, the solar park will be capable of feeding 40 megawatts into the power grid when fully operational in 2009.

 

In the start-up phase, the 130-million-euro ($201 million) plant it will have a capacity of 24 megawatts, according to the Juwi group, which operates the installation.

 

The facility, located east of Leipzig, uses state-of-the-art, thin-film technology. Some 550,000 thin-film modules will be used, of which 350,000 have already been installed. The direct current produced in the photovoltaic solar modules will be converted into alternating current and fed completely into the power grid.

 

After just a year the solar power station will have produced the energy needed to build it, according to the Juwi group.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 03:32:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Turkey's power struggle an old feud - International Herald Tribune

ISTANBUL: As Turkey's governing party braces for a high court ruling that could close it down and bar many of its members from politics, party officials like to talk about what they did that caused so much trouble.

"Watch out, you're talking to a sinner," said Sadullah Ergin, an official in the party, Justice and Development, whose founders, some of them former Islamists, now want Turkey to be a more open society for practicing Muslims.

Ergin's offense, detailed in a more than 160-page indictment of the party and its officials that has paralyzed Turkish politics since it was filed in March, was saying that a ban on women wearing head scarves in universities violated human rights, adding his signature to a draft law that helped cancel it and talking about it on a television talk show.

Most of all, his crime lay in his association with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the leader of the party, known as AK, the initials of its Turkish name. With its control of the presidency, the Parliament and the government, the party has come further than any other in modern Turkey in breaking the grip of the secular establishment on power.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 03:34:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Marijuana Is In, Tobacco Is Out Under Netherlands' Smoking Ban -  Bloomberg.com: Europe

June 20 (Bloomberg) -- Starting July 1, marijuana will be the only leaf that can be smoked in public places in the Netherlands. Cannabis devotees aren't celebrating.

Local pot smokers, who usually cut joints with tobacco, and owners of the ``coffee shops'' where they are allowed to light up will have to change their habits when the nation implements the indoor tobacco ban. Puffing a pure marijuana cigarette in public will still be permitted; smoking one with tobacco will merit coffee shop owners a 300-euro ($466) fine for the first offense and 2,400 euros for a fourth.

``Every customer will have to learn how to smoke pure,'' said Robert Kempen, co-owner of The NooN and Mellow Yellow in Amsterdam, which sell marijuana and hashish. The rule makes him ``sick to death,'' he said, rolling himself a joint.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 03:35:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I never tried mixing them directly together.  I did used to remove the tobacco from the end of one of my Sherman cigarettes and replace it with Vitamin M.  I even lit those up on airplanes once the "smoking lamp was lit."  By the time the odor had spread, the evidence was gone, except for my dilated pupils, the blood vessels in the whites of my eyes and the smile on my face.  Being able to smoke on an airplane gives you an idea how long ago that was.

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (argeezer a in a circle yahoo dot com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 04:31:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's usually hash (resin), and not grass, that's mixed with tobacco.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 04:39:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I see.  The resin can be a bit nasty.  Tiny chips of hash also worked great in the ends of Shermans.

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (argeezer a in a circle yahoo dot com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 04:52:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The EU Meets in Brussels: Europe's Summit of Paralysis - International - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News

Optimism was the name of the game at the European Summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday. Still it was clear: After the Irish rejection of the Lisbon Treaty, the European Union doesn't know what to do next. And more hurdles are just over the horizon.

Everything was supposed to look just as it always had. The 27 European Union leaders smiled broadly and slapped each other on the back; optimism was on full display when they stepped to the microphones. The EU summit in Brussels even came to an end just when it was supposed to on Friday evening. No delays and, most importantly, not a hint of crisis.

 Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen didn't have any more answers than the rest of Europe at the EU summit in Brussels. There was even progress made, if one believes the list of successes read out by Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who holds the EU's rotating presidency until the end of the month. There were new employment measures to announce, visa policy for the Balkans had been improved and Slovakia's adoption of the common European currency, the euro, was discussed. All of it, said Jansa, was "a clear sign that the EU works." His foreign minister, Dimitrij Rupel, echoed Jansa by saying that the summit had been "encouraging."

And as for "our Irish friends," as European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso put it, "they have asked for more time and they will get more time."

Yet despite all of the forced bonhomie, it was difficult to conceal the truth about the Brussels gathering: It was a summit of paralysis. It was so short because there was nothing to discuss or negotiate. In answer to the central question -- what to do now that the Irish have rejected the Lisbon Treaty in a referendum a week and a half ago -- there was silence. The EU decided to wait until the next summit in October to talk about it.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 03:36:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
for neoliberal "reforms", that's for sure. These will continue, unabated.

Thank you Ireland. (and thank you, French left)

For some reason, the "elites" that get blamed for being out of touch are only the instinctively socialist and meddlesome bureaucrats, not the "reformist" politicians and pundits who have the power.

Bleh. The "non" voters endorse that system, they get what they deserve. Nice.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 04:03:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Al Jazeera English - Europe - UK court upholds Masri extradition

Britain's high court has ruled that Abu Hamza al-Masri, a Muslim preacher, should be extradited to face terrorism charges in the United States.

Al-Masri, who is currently serving a seven-year sentence in Britain for inciting his followers to murder non Muslims, has been indicted in the US on 11 charges.

Justice Igor Judge and Justice Jeremy Sullivan, who heard al-Masri's appeal at a lower court ruling, gave his lawyers two weeks to apply to the House of Lords for a further appeal.

Al-Masri, 51, who says he lost his hands and the sight of one eye in Afghanistan, once led Finsbury Park mosque in London.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 03:36:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Abdul Qadeer Khan denies supplying Tinners with nuclear plans - swissinfo
A Sunday newspaper has added a new twist to the controversy over the Swiss government's shredding of nuclear documents.

The NZZ am Sonntag carries an interview with Abdul Qadeer Khan, "the father of Pakistan's atom bomb", in which he denies supplying the Swiss Tinner family with the plans for a nuclear weapon which the government destroyed at the end of 2007.

The Tinners - father Friedrich and sons Marco and Urs - are accused of helping to supply parts for Libya's nuclear weapons programme through a trafficking ring run by Khan. The weapon plans were seized as part of the investigation into the Tinners' activities.

Khan told the Zurich-based newspaper that neither Pakistan nor he himself "had anything to do with what Tinner or his sons had on their computers."

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 03:37:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A similar interview appeared last week in la Repubblica. Crackpot Kahn legends have been around for at least a decade.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 05:28:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nobel Prize winner Shirin Ebadi has criticised Micheline Calmy-Rey over her trip to Iran. - swissinfo
Iranian Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi has criticised Swiss Foreign Minister Micheline Calmy-Rey over her recent controversial trip to Iran.

The lawyer and human rights campaigner was in Geneva on Monday taking part in a panel discussion on human rights abuses in Iran.

Shirin Ebadi, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2003 for her work on human rights and democracy, said she disagreed with Calmy-Rey's conduct during her visit. She has spoken out on human rights issues in Iran and has defended clients in a number of high profile rights cases.

During a one-day trip to Tehran in March, Calmy-Rey held talks on Iran's nuclear policy and on human rights, and attended the signing of an agreement on gas supply between Tehran and a private Swiss energy company, EGL

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 03:38:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nobel Prize winner Shirin Ebadi has criticised Micheline Calmy-Rey over her trip to Iran. - swissinfo
swissinfo: During their recent visits to Iran, both Calmy-Rey and UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Louise Arbour wore headscarves. What's your position on this issue?

Shirin Ebadi: I really don't care if they cover their hair or not. What disappointed me was Calmy-Rey's attitude during her visit. She knew about the human rights situation in Iran; I even had the chance to speak to her about it beforehand.

But once there she never mentioned the human rights situation in Iran, nor met any human rights defenders, not even myself. The only thing of interest to her was the business deal.

Louise Arbour had quite a different attitude. On the first day she met members of civil society and visited women's prisons and showed that these people were also important.

swissinfo: In your last report you talk about human rights abuses in Iran. What are these exactly?

S.E.: In Iran any criticism is assimilated under "action against national security". There are more and more arrests of journalists, students and women for this reason. This is the case if a woman disagrees with her husband taking a second wife.

Newspapers are being closed. Recently a very progressive women's rights monthly newspaper was closed down. Followers of the Bahá'í faith (founded by Baha'u'llah in Iran in the 19th century) are arrested for "actions against national security" and unable to speak to lawyers.

In 1975 Iran ratified the pact on social, economic, cultural, civil and political rights, which forbids corporal or degrading punishment, like torture. But the government continues to practice flogging, amputation and stoning.

Although the number of death sentences fell by 70 per cent in China, it rose by 60 per cent in Iran, compared with previous years. Even blasphemy is punishable by the death penalty.

In Iran it's legal to execute minors. Under the law, the age of criminal responsibility is nine for a girl and 15 for a boy. Today, more than one hundred youngsters under 18 are waiting to be executed.



... all progress depends on the unreasonable mensch.
(apologies to G.B. Shaw)
by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 05:59:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Followers of the Bahá'í faith (founded by Baha'u'llah in Iran in the 19th century) are arrested for "actions against national security" and unable to speak to lawyers.

A sometime client of mine in L.A. is a Baha'i from Iran. He obtained a degree in Electrical Engineering at U of Kentucky and has for about 15 years had his own Consulting Engineer practice in L.A. He has the sort of business ethics that requires him to correct my invoices upward substantially in cases where otherwise I would never know.  Turns fixed price jobs into hourly jobs when it is to my benefit.  

He told me that since the Iranian Revolution, the Iranian government will not even let self professed Baha'i attend school.  Persia was an empire.  The national minorities have suffered greatly since the revolution.

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.

by ARGeezer (argeezer a in a circle yahoo dot com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 06:56:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Two Iranian acquaintances in Tokyo, in their late 20s and early 30s, converted to Christianity, and now live in fear of the Iranian secret religious police that -- they allege -- even operates in Japan.

Still, I am skeptical that Iran would jeapordize its relationship with Japan -- and its international reputation -- by persecuting apostate Iranians even living overseas in Japan.

... all progress depends on the unreasonable mensch.
(apologies to G.B. Shaw)

by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 10:00:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I am skeptical that Iran would jeapordize its relationship with Japan.

We can hope. I don't blame them for being more cautious. The Savak under the Shaw was fearsome and now a fundamentalist zeal has been added to that fearsomeness.

I spent about six months total in Saudi Arabia back in the mid 80s, helping recycle petro-dollars.  Part of the time I was the sole representative of my company and was working out of the office of a local company headed by an Australian with a Saudi partner.  He had an associate whose father came from one of the Gulf Emirates and whose mother was English. He was naturally multi-cultural and multi-lingual.  

He invited me to dinner one night.  His wife was Persian and had excellent English. We were having  a wide ranging discussion of world conditions, and it seemed like a really good evening.  At one point I brought up something from a book I had recently read by Idiries Shah, Seeker after Truth. The wife got this stricken look on her face and asked me: "You have a book by Shah?  You have a book by Shah?"  I assured her that the book wasn't by Mohammed Pahlavi, the former Shah of Iran and apologized if I alarmed her.  I tried to explain who the author was, an Indian, perhaps a Parsi.  Her husband understood, but she had trouble regaining her composure.  Fortunately, it was getting late.  For those who have lived under those circumstances their whole lives can be blighted by the equivalent of PTSD.


If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.

by ARGeezer (argeezer a in a circle yahoo dot com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 11:25:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Al Jazeera English - Business - Iraq may supply gas to Europe

Iraqi energy experts have told Al Jazeera that oil and gas fields in the western Anbar province may soon begin pumping gas to European markets.

Mukhtar al-Ani, an Iraqi oil consultant, said: "In early January, the Ministry of Oil held talks with a number of potential companies regarding development of the huge Akkas gas field in the north-western desert of Anbar province."

According to the ministry, Akkas, which lies 40km from the Syrian border, is believed to contain up to seven trillion cubic feet of gas, which accounts for six per cent of Iraq's estimated total of 112 trillion cubic feet. The field is capable of producing up to 500 million cubic feet per day if fully developed.

Akkas is also close to existing Syrian gas facilities.

"Iraq earlier signed a preliminary agreement with Syria to supply it with 50 million cubic feet of gas a day from the existing five wells in Akkas ... The Syrians are eager to revive this agreement," al- Ani said.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 03:38:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Perhaps this could be a rather large bone for the Iraqi Sunis.  

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (argeezer a in a circle yahoo dot com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 04:39:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
EU seeks to overhaul air traffic control - International Herald Tribune

BRUSSELS: Faced with congested skies, airport delays and growing carbon emissions from aircraft, the European Union will this week seek to overhaul its aviation management system in a move that could save €2 billion to €3 billion in fuel costs and cut carbon dioxide output by up to 16 million tons a year.

With air traffic likely to double by 2020, the European Commission, the EU's executive arm, says it believes that changes to Europe's complex and unwieldy air traffic control structure are vital if the bloc is to manage the growth in aviation and keep to its ambitious climate change targets.

The plan for a "single European sky" proposes a big shake-up of air traffic control in Europe, which is currently divided into 650 units administered from 60 air traffic control centers in the 27 nations. By contrast the United States manages double the number of flights for a similar cost from 20 control centers, according to the commission.

Under the proposals, scheduled to be released Wednesday, European countries would agree to accelerate the creation of a network of larger air traffic control units, made up of adjacent nations, known as functional airspace blocks, probably by 2012.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 03:49:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The EU, via EUROCONTROL, is working on it since a long time. For instance from this month:

Press release EUROCONTROL 17/06/2008

EUROCONTROL recently initiated a first series of flight trials at Arlanda Airport in order to validate the airborne controlled time of arrival (CTA) functionality.

On 5 June Scandinavian Airlines flights SK049, SK1013, SK009, SK1045 and SK011 were assigned times to the entry point approximately 25 minutes before reaching the Stockholm terminal area (TMA).

The pilots of these flights then relied on onboard functions to ensure that the aircraft arrived at the assigned times with an (initially estimated) accuracy of +/- 10 seconds....

The initial wave of flight trials, which will continue until the end of July, will be followed by a second wave - running from September to December 2008.

These trials will further investigate the accuracy of the aircraft flight management system in meeting times to points within the terminal area, including the runway.

Trials will also be carried out London Heathrow and Amsterdam Schiphol airports.

By March 2009, Cassis will deliver a concept of operations based on the SESAR concept as well as a description of the steps that will bring CTA applications into operation. For Stockholm Arlanda, where downlinks of estimated times of arrival and 4D trajectories have been ongoing during live trials, the process of validating CTA applications will continue, using commercial revenue flights.              



The struggle of man against tyranny is the struggle of memory against forgetting.(Kundera)
by Elco B (elcob at scarlet dot be) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 04:31:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There could also be a europe wide air fuel duty, that'd kill a large part of the amrket.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 09:55:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
EJP | News | France | France condemns attack on Jewish teenager in Paris, recalls murder of Ilan Halimi

Some 300 people gathered Sunday evening at the Beth Haya Mouchka Lubavitch synagogue in Paris's 19th district  to pray for the recovery of the Jewish teenager savaged Saturday evening by a gang of youths of Black African origin.

The synagogue is located on 49 Rue Petit, near the place where the 17-year-old Rudy Haddad, a member of the local Lubavitch community, was attacked by the youths who beat him with metal bars and smashed his skull.

The victim, who suffered several broken ribs and a fractured skull, was placed in intensive care at Cochin hospital in central Paris. ...

The multi-ethnic area, which is harbouring several synagogues, has been the stage of several anti-Jewish incidents in the last months, Raphael Haddad, had of the union of French Jewish students (UEJF), said.

Speaking on French tv, the new chief rabbi of France, Gilles Bernheim, who was elected on Sunday, mentioned the fact that young Jewish girls fear to walk in a neighborhood park on Sabbath."



... all progress depends on the unreasonable mensch.
(apologies to G.B. Shaw)
by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 07:09:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Left unsaid is that the teenager had been some times ago arrested by the police for carrying brass knuckles ; and that he was a member of a group, which regularly fought with other groups of youth. Kinda changes the perspective.

Auferre, trucidare, rapere, falsis nominibus imperium; atque, ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 09:46:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
France 24 | 50 escape from burning migrant detention centre | France 24
Around 50 non-EU nationals without visas or work permits escaped Sunday from a Paris immigrant detention centre following a fire that police said was started deliberately.
   
"Some 50-odd detainees have yet to be accounted for," an official from the police headquarters covering the Vincennes district south-east of the French capital told AFP.
   
A fresh roll-call was being conducted Sunday evening at France's biggest clandestine immigrant processing centre.

News | Africa - Reuters.com

A 41-year-old Tunisian immigrant died in the Vincennes centre on Saturday, and police said he died from a heart attack while alone in his bedroom.

An investigation into his death has been opened, but the MRAP organisation against racism said the death showed that detention conditions in French deportation centres were poor.

Sarkozy's applying Le Pen's program, expelling illegal immigrants very harshly. For example, see the story of an elderly Algerian who has all his children and grandchildren in France being illegally expelled because he didn't appeal fast enough .

Auferre, trucidare, rapere, falsis nominibus imperium; atque, ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 09:10:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Africans Storm Spanish Enclave in Morocco | Europe | Deutsche Welle | 22.06.2008
Up to 70 African would-be immigrants to Europe on Sunday tried to push through a border post of the Spanish enclave of Melilla in Morocco, but most of them were repulsed, Spanish authorities said.

The Africans were seeking to start news lives in Europe and tried to force their way past border guards on the North African coast on Sunday.

 

"Between 60 and 70 people from sub-Saharan Africa tried to force their way into Melilla at dawn through the Beni-Enzar border post," the local Melilla authorities said in a statement.

 

"The majority of them were pushed back by security forces," it said, adding that "the situation is normal on the border."

 

But several border guards suffered injuries, the statement said.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 01:36:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What are they talking about? The situation is not normal at the border.



When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 03:04:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Compare with the fire -started by the detainees- in the Paris immigrants' detention center, with fifty escaping. The immigration policy is pretty much unsunstainable - and highly murderous.

Auferre, trucidare, rapere, falsis nominibus imperium; atque, ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 04:29:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
FT.com / Columnists / Wolfgang Munchau - Ireland is wrong to put its miracle at risk

After a week of what European leaders call reflection, another Irish referendum beckons, to be held early next year. Without it, there might well be an attempt to oust the Irish from the European Union.

A Yes vote in a second referendum is not certain, even if the Irish government were to succeed in securing another rent-extracting, treaty-amending protocol. At a time when the Irish economy is about to fall off a cliff, enthusiasm for the EU and its treaties will not increase. In other words, holding a referendum would be as risky as not holding a referendum. A fine mess.

So within a couple of weeks, the chances of Ireland ending up outside the EU have turned from zero to a distinct possibility. The same goes for the Czech Republic, another potential non-ratifier. I do not want to get into the legal details of how a country's departure from the EU could be accomplished. Suffice it to say that it can be done within European law as long as there is political will.

What strikes me the most about this extraordinary turn of events is the perception in Ireland that a break with the EU would be no big deal. I received a large number of letters from Ireland last week from readers who steadfastly maintain that the country's economic success had nothing to do with the EU and everything to do with domestic policy - in particular with low corporate taxes and skilled labour.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 01:43:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Isn't the "miracle entirely down to low corporate tax, and isn't Ireland insisting on keeping "tax sovereignty" which was never under threat by Lisbon?

Oh, you mean Structural Funds? Those who need them in the rural areas voted no. Shows how much they know.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 02:59:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"Shows how much they know."

Well, I'm not sure about that.
I doubt Ireland will be kicked out (it's part of the Eurozone...), so those people may want as much of a statu quo as possible.
I'm not sure that the ratification of the Treaty would have meant more structural funds for them...

"The womb that spawned that thing is fertile yet"

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 03:56:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The treaty had bugger all to do with tax sovereignty or with structural funds.

We have people giving contradictory reasons why they are unhappy about the EU anyway: they want both more EU intervention in social welfare policies but they want to be able to retain their low corporate tax. They want the EU to get involved in protecting local cultural heritage against national infrastructure development, and at the same time they want to strengthen "subsidiarity and proportionality".

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 05:36:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Democracy is hard work, you need an engaged electorate. but what we have across most of the world are highly dis-engaged electorates who feel utterly disenfranchised by governments that promise the moon and then steal the earth from beneath their feet.

Governments will start telling the truth when there are media that bother to report what they say with sincerity and fairness. Until then, dirty truth remains politically dangerous

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 10:01:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
UK banks accused of boycotting Cuba | World news | The Guardian

Leading British banks have been accused of operating a covert embargo of Cuba out of deference to the US. The accusation comes after revelations that Lloyds TSB and Barclays Bank have been telling clients who trade with Cuba to take their accounts elsewhere.

Although none of the major banks are prepared to go on record over their policy towards Cuba, the Guardian has learned that Lloyds TSB, Barclays Bank, the Royal Bank of Scotland and HSBC are all complying with the US blockade of the island that was condemned in the UN earlier this year by a vote of 184 to four. The US has taken legal action in the courts against multinational companies that deal with Cuba and have offices in the US.

Last week a London cigar importer and a Somerset natural food company, which imported Cuban sugar, were told by Lloyds TSB that the bank could no longer carry out transactions involving Cuba. Phil Markey, relationship director at Lloyds TSB, told one client in a letter: "I would like to find a way to continue to make these payments for you - the decision, however, is down to a full risk assessment process within Lloyds TSB."

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 02:03:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is almost certainly good news for Cubans.  UK banks aren't exactly rocking the goalposts...
by paving on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 02:28:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
WORLD
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 03:26:14 PM EST
Obama unveils clampdown on oil speculators - Yahoo! News

WASHINGTON (AFP) - White House hopeful Barack Obama pushed Sunday for a clampdown on energy speculation with new proposals that his campaign argued would more than halve the record-high price of oil.

The Democrat attacked the so-called Enron loophole, a 2000 deregulation of oversight by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that critics say opened the way to a speculative free-for-all in the oil markets.

"For the past years, our energy policy in this country has been simply to let the special interests have their way -- opening up loopholes for the oil companies and speculators so that they could reap record profits while the rest of us pay four dollars a gallon," Obama said in a statement.

"My plan fully closes the Enron loophole and restores common-sense regulation as part of my broader plan to ease the burden for struggling families today while investing in a better future," the Illinois senator said.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 03:29:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
US energy chief says 'speculators' not forcing up oil prices - Yahoo! News

JEDDAH, Saudi Arabia (AFP) - US Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman said on Saturday that speculators were not forcing up global oil prices, which nearly hit 140 dollars per barrel this week.

"There is no evidence that we can find that speculators are driving futures prices," Bodman told a press briefing ahead of Sunday's summit in Jeddah that will bring together consuming and producing nations to address the global energy crisis.

"It is clear that financial markets have seen unprecedented movement of capital into commodities in recent years. Our view is that this capital is following the market upward, it is not leading that movement."

"That is our position. We believe that it is backed up by the facts, and that is the case that we will be making here in Jeddah tomorrow."

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 03:30:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

U.S. energy sec: more oil needed to tame price

JEDDAH, Saudi Arabia (Reuters) - Producers must pump more to ease the pain felt in the United States and elsewhere from record fuel prices, U.S. Energy Secretary Sam Bodman said on Saturday.

He blamed tight supplies for fuelling a rally which lifted oil close to $140 a barrel this week, sparking protests across Asia and Europe.

(...)

Bodman said prices would soar higher if more oil was not forthcoming.

"In the absence of any additional crude supply, for every one percent of crude demand, we will expect a 20 percent increase in price in order to balance the market."



In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 03:47:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How do we know how much "unsatisfied demand" there is?

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 03:58:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"It is exactly as unsatisfied as I say it is!" ?

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (argeezer a in a circle yahoo dot com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 04:42:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A 20% price increase = +1% unsatisfied demand. Simple.

By contrast, Obama's "plan" to halve prices will add 2.5% satisfied demand. Burp.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 04:50:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
as mentioned in this piece?

FT.com / Wealth - Politicians' oil argument is flawed

When I wrote last month about the US politicians' attacks on oil and grain speculators, I assumed the issue would dry up and blow away after some useful airtime had been collected. I assumed that while people such as Senator Joseph Lieberman would never admit their analysis was flawed, they would quietly postpone any real action until a tomorrow that would never arrive.

I was wrong. This Tuesday, Senator Lieberman will resume his hearings on whether institutional investors in commodities are responsible for the increase in oil and grain prices. It is quite possible legislation restricting institutional investors' positions in commodities will pass Congress, though it could be vetoed by this president. If reintroduced during a Democratic administration, though, it would probably become law.

<...>

The institutional investors Senator Lieberman is frothing about do not buy physical product; they buy futures, or total return swaps that in turn are hedged with futures by the dealers. Those dealers, in turn, may hedge part of their exposure by buying receipts for physical product at a location such as Cushing, but that would account for only a small part of their total positions. The trading volume for the WTI contract would be in the order of 500m barrels a day, but, as noted above, only 20m of that is sitting in tanks in Cushing.



... all progress depends on the unreasonable mensch.
(apologies to G.B. Shaw)
by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 07:27:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Too bad he had to stick this piece of junk in at the end of the piece:

The US could also conserve more, in part by shifting more of the tax burden to energy. It could allow more domestic drilling, and eliminate programmes such as ethanol subsidies. None of that will happen. Instead, we will get more volatility inducing static such as Senator Lieberman's hearings, and ineffective, ill-conceived new laws.


... all progress depends on the unreasonable mensch.
(apologies to G.B. Shaw)
by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 07:35:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Just a minor question. speculators have been parasitizing the financial markets and, by extention, us for the best part of 40 years. they have made zillions by forcing up the price of goods unnecessarily. and politicans have swarmed all over them glad-handing them, amazed by their wealth, wanting contributions, willing to lionize them as real capitalists, change the laws any way they want.

this was their idea of capitalism, greed was good, greed works, greed cuts through, greed was what made America great and all the other bs. Now suddenly speculators are nasty slimeballs.

No. they have either always been slimeballs, or they're still what makes america great. They can't be mix and match according to convenience.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 10:27:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Obama's campaign closely linked with ethanol - International Herald Tribune

When VeraSun Energy inaugurated a new ethanol processing plant last summer in Charles City, Iowa, some of that industry's most prominent boosters showed up. Leaders of the National Corn Growers Association and the Renewable Fuels Association, for instance, came to help cut the ribbon -- and so did Senator Barack Obama.

Then running far behind Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton in name recognition and in the polls, Obama was in the midst of a campaign swing through the state where he would eventually register his first caucus victory. And as befits a senator from Illinois, the country's second largest corn-producing state, he delivered a ringing endorsement of ethanol as an alternative fuel.

Obama is running as a reformer who is seeking to reduce the influence of special interests. But like any other politician, he has powerful constituencies that help shape his views. And when it comes to domestic ethanol, almost all of which is made from corn, he also has advisers and prominent supporters with close ties to the industry at a time when energy policy is a point of sharp contrast between the parties and their presidential candidates.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 01:41:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Fran:
Obama is running as a reformer

Minor correction: Obama was running as a reformer.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 05:20:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, Edwards ws the refromer candidate, the guy who would change things.

Obama has no intention of doing any such things. Sure, the lobby thing is nice, but the idea that he would invent a whole new way that Washington is run is bs. He's never been about that. The Audacity of vapid woolly aspiration.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 10:21:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You know, getting the low-grade corn used for Ethanol out of the food supply is probably a good thing for world health.  That's the same stuff they like to use to make corn syrup sweeteners that are increasingly linked to diabetes...
by paving on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 02:34:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Stop killing the Taliban - they offer the best hope of beating Al-Qaeda | Simon Jenkins - Times Online

The British expedition to Afghanistan is on the brink of something worse than defeat: a long, low-intensity war from which no government will dare to extricate itself. With the death toll mounting, battle is reportedly joined with the Taliban at the very gates of the second city, Kandahar. There is no justification for ministerial bombast that "we are winning the war, really".

What is to be done? In 2001 the West waged a punitive retaliatory strike against the hosts of the perpetrators of 9/11. The strike has since followed every law of mission creep, now reduced in London to a great war of despair, in which the cabinet can do nothing but send even more men to their deaths.

In seven years in Afghanistan, America, Britain and their Nato allies have made every mistake in the intervention book. They sent too few troops to assert an emphatic presence. They failed to "hit hard and get out", as advocated by Donald Rumsfeld, the American defence secretary. They tried to destroy the staple crop, poppies, and then let it go to warlords who now use it to finance suicide bombers, among others.

They allowed a corrupt regime to establish itself in the capital, Kabul, while failing to promote honest administration in the provinces.

[Murdoch Alert]
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 03:31:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
After all he offers the best hope of beating Al-Qaida in Iraq, too...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 03:51:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You think you're joking...

Daniel Pipes: A Strongman for Iraq? (New York Post, April 28, 2003)

...

This state of affairs leaves coalition forces in a bind: As vanquisher of the Saddam Hussein regime, they aim to rehabilitate the country, which means sticking around. As liberator of the country, they must respond to Iraqi wishes, which means getting out fast.

What to do? If coalition forces leave Iraq precipitously, anarchy and extremism would result. Stay too long, they will face an anti-imperialist backlash of sabotage and terrorism. Hold elections too fast, the Khomeini-like mullahs will probably win. Keep the country under an occupation force, and an intifada would rear up.

...

Therefore: Iraq needs - and I write these words with some trepidation - a democratically-minded Iraqi strongman. This may sound like a contradiction, but it has happened elsewhere, for example by Atatürk in Turkey and Chiang Kai-shek in Taiwan. Yes, it goes against every American instinct ("Democracy Now!" is the name of a national radio show) but that's not a reason to reject it.

...




When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 04:02:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
with the added advantage that he'll need to buy replacement weapons.

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 04:10:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If he's enough of a strongman to rule Iraq, he knows where Saddam really hid the WMDs.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 04:56:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They'lll bloody make sure he's got some for next time.

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 05:01:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Shall we all assemble around a table in a darkened room?

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (argeezer a in a circle yahoo dot com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 04:43:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bill Maher joked about bringing Saddam back for the longest time, and gradually he seemed to become quite serious about it.

Personally, I think it would be a great idea, if he weren't dead.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 04:48:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Has Tariq Aziz been tried yet?

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 05:09:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He hasn't been executed.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 05:12:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
well he always had a western friendly face at the UN

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 05:13:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Since Aziz is Christian, I doubt that would play well.

Ah, if only the media could have figured out the difference between Arab nationalism and Islamic fundamentalism, say about January 2003...

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 01:00:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, that would make him neutral among shias and sunnis.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 02:55:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
if only the media could have figured out the difference between  Arab nationalism and Islamic fundamentalism

But that would have required an entirely different America leading the invasion than the one that actually did. One that does planning, does nation building, can build a road and maintain it. Sod Saddam, bring back FDR.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 10:07:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The true irony is that in Iraq you did have a large Communist/Arab Socialist contingent that could have been given power.  Further, if the CPA hadn't maintained Saddam's laws against independent labor organization, the establishment of unions in government owned industries could have formed the basis for a party system that would have been pro-democratic and supportive of women's rights and many of the other issues that typically are the hangups when it comes to Arab democracy.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 03:23:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Even if Saddam were alive he couldn't put the genie back in the bottle now.  Too much of his apparatus has been destroyed and its effect has been diluted by the rise of the Shi'ites.  The Ba'athists never really were Arab socialists.  More like soviet style internal security apparatus grafted onto a traditional Arab culture in region with lots of religious and ethnic groups.  If things ever settle down it will be because those groups decide to stop killing and being killed and to come to some accommodation instead.  About the only thing the US accomplished was getting >1,000,000 Iraqis killed or driven into exile.

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (argeezer a in a circle yahoo dot com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 07:10:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
About the only thing the US accomplished was getting >1,000,000 Iraqis killed or driven into exile.

A million killed and about 5 in exile according to Juan Cole.

The plural of anecdote is bullshit.

by generic on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 08:31:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC NEWS | Africa | Mugabe rival quits election race

Zimbabwe's opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai says he is pulling out of Friday's presidential run-off, handing victory to President Robert Mugabe.

Mr Tsvangirai said there was no point running when elections would not be free and fair and "the outcome is determined by... Mugabe himself".

He called on the global community to step in to prevent "genocide".

But the ruling Zanu-PF said Mr Tsvangirai had taken the decision to avoid "humiliation" in the poll.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 03:32:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
'Mugabe declared war and we will not be part of that war' - Africa, World - The Independent

Zimbabwe's hopes of democratic salvation ended yesterday amid clouds of tear gas and intimidating mobs of armed men who blocked opposition attempts to hold a legal rally in the capital. Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of the Movement for Democratic Change, responded by pulling out of a run-off against President Robert Mugabe, saying that conditions for an election had become impossible, that the result was preordained and that his supporters were being murdered in a "genocide" which should be stopped by the UN.

"We can't ask the people to cast their vote ... when that vote will cost their lives," he said. "We will no longer participate in this violent sham of an election. Mugabe has declared war, and we will not be part of that war."

That war has already claimed at least 86 lives, according to independent observers. Dozens more are feared dead and thousands have been beaten.

The decision to withdraw from the contest came after thousands of ruling party militia armed with sticks and rocks blockaded a Harare stadium where the MDC had been due to hold a legally sanctioned rally. Trucks full of Zanu-PF thugs circled the venue and opposition supporters were beaten, with at least two people seriously injured. Journalists and African election monitors were driven away.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 01:44:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No justice for Congo's child soldiers as trial of militia chief fails - Africa, World - The Independent
International Criminal Court to hold hearing this week to consider the release of Thomas Lubanga

Victim number A105 was 10 years old when he was kidnapped from his village near the gold fields of central Africa and conscripted into the militia. Like thousands of others, the child - his name has been replaced with a number to keep him safe - was forced to fight in the armed wing of the UPC movement in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), under orders to slaughter all their enemies: men, women and children. Friends and comrades who tried to escape the horror were shot.

On Tuesday, Thomas Lubanga, the man allegedly responsible for that horror, should have been facing justice at the start of the first trial by the International Criminal Court (ICC). Instead, with the proceedings lying in ruins, the court will hold a hearing to consider his release.

Judges have ruled that the former warlord cannot get a fair trial because the prosecution has failed to hand over documents to the defence or court which could potentially prove his innocence or mitigate any sentence. A105 and the other child soldiers involved in this case are unlikely to see justice done.


by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 03:33:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
France's Sarkozy in Israel on fence-mending visit

TEL AVIV (Reuters) - French President Nicolas Sarkozy arrived in Israel on Sunday for a three-day visit aimed at reinforcing his image as an ally of the Jewish state and reversing a trend of difficult trips there by French leaders.

After taking office last year, Sarkozy announced a "break" with the policies of his predecessor Jacques Chirac, seeking to mend ties with Washington damaged by the war in Iraq and repeatedly proclaiming himself a friend of Israel.

His statements of support for the Jewish state contrasted with those of previous presidents from Charles de Gaulle to Francois Mitterrand and Chirac, who were widely viewed as more pro-Arab.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said in his welcome speech the visit was a gesture of friendship by a man who understood the challenges faced by Israel and was personally committed to the "security of Israel and to maintaining its qualitative advantage in the region".

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 03:44:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why should he do that? Good relations with Israel are more of a liability than an asset.

The plural of anecdote is bullshit.
by generic on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 05:22:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
cos it proves to america he's a good guy.

I think real friends of Israel would be critical of their behaviour. PArents hwo indulge their children's bad behaviour are bad parents. Friends who indulge their friends antisocial behaviour are bad friends etc etc.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 10:30:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Or it's a thank you for giving Total a chunk of Iraq's oil and buying refuel plains from EADS, along with sending more troops to Afghanistan.

The plural of anecdote is bullshit.
by generic on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 02:51:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Saudi oil boost fails to alleviate concerns

Saudi Arabia's decision to pump more oil than it has in nearly 30 years risks being completely negated by the sharp drop in output caused by attacks on production facilities in Nigeria.

Nigeria now pumps less than 1.5m barrels a day, its lowest level in 25 years, rather than the 2.5m b/d it has the ability to produce, according to officials attending Sunday's high-level meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.



In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Sun Jun 22nd, 2008 at 03:53:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Economic War Between OPEC and the U.S. Financial System - Moon of Alabama

Oil markets are in a bubble driven by speculation. While peak oil is a real concern, it does not explain recent short term price moves. People drive less now in the U.S., China has increased its subsidized oil prices by 17.5% and airlines have stopped flying certain routes. Supply has stayed fairly constant. Still prices are going up.

The speculation is driven largely by U.S. financial entities that trade in unregulated commodities with over the counter derivative contracts. F. William Engdahl has explained how the mechanisms works and Pam Martens points to the massive involvement of Citibank and other big players.

The OPEC folks are pissed. They know the prices they are selling their oil for are far below the top prices in the commodity markets and they know that some of the barrels they offer find no buyers. They do know that it is speculation that drives this. The current too high prices will make people develop other energy sources and will destruct the long term demand for their product. They learned that lesson in the 1970s and do not want to repeat it.

At the same time there is a serious systematic attack on OPEC underway in U.S. politics. A year ago Ed Koch, the former mayor of New York, called for more legislative and presidential action to take on OPEC in the Jewish World Review. In May Hillary Clinton said OPEC 'can no longer be a cartel'. This week saw calls for action against OPEC from mainly Democratic legislators and op-eds on the issue in two major papers. On the same day the LA Times and the  NY Times headlined these Sue OPEC.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 01:53:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This week saw calls for action against OPEC from mainly Democratic legislators and op-eds on the issue in two major papers. On the same day the LA Times and the  NY Times headlined these Sue OPEC.

More pissing in the wind by our naked emperors.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 04:11:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Exactly. what are they gonna do ? If they try any punitive action they'll turn off the taps and then the US will be in a worse jam. Dtrouble is that the ynaks are so used to banging their fist and getting what they want or they'll blow their enemy out of the water that thye dont know how to react when the solesupplier of their drugs explains that this is how it is.

btw since when has being a foreign cartel been against the law ? The constitution doesn't even apply in the USA anymore, so how come US law governs how business is done globally ?

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 10:15:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Speculation is just the froth at the top of the wave. I'll just shut up on this now.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 05:54:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm a bit irritated at the moaning over speculation. Imagine that you for some reason believed that oil would be more valuable in the future than it is today. What would you do then? You would invest in oil, maybe in oil companies, maybe in oil futures. If you were right, you would enrich yourself handsomely. If not, you would lose part or all of your invested capital.

But wouldn't this be evil dastardly speculation? That's exactly what it would be! So it should be banned, right?

Nope.

Every individual is continually exerting himself to find out the most advantageous employment for whatever capital he can command. It is his own advantage, indeed, and not that of the society, which he has in view. But the study of his own advantage naturally, or rather necessarily, leads him to prefer that employment which is most advantageous to the society.

[...]

He generally, indeed, neither intends to promote the public interest, nor knows how much he is promoting it. By preferring the support of domestic to that of foreign industry, he intends only his own security; and by directing that industry in such a manner as its produce may be of the greatest value, he intends only his own gain, and he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention.

[...]

It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their self-love, and never talk to them of our own necessities but of their advantages.

Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations

When the speculator drives up (or down) prices he is supplying the community with a valuable service. Because if prices will be higher in the future, we should prepare for it now, should we not? That's exactly what the actions of the speculator results in. Investments in preparation which would otherwise not happen before the crisis itself sets in can be made right now.

Off course, speculation can result in irrational exuberance, bubbles. Which is why speculation, like almost all other things, must be regulated one way or another.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (