European Tribune

Please act surprised

by Colman
Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 07:22:46 AM EST

Britain and Europe will be forced to fundamentally rethink a central part of their environment strategy after a government report found that the rush to develop biofuels has played a "significant" role in the dramatic rise in global food prices, which has left 100 million more people without enough to eat.

The Gallagher report, due to be published next week, will trigger a review of British and EU targets for the use of plant-derived fuels in place of petrol and diesel, the Guardian has learned.

The study marks a dramatic reversal in the role of biofuels in the fight against global warming. As recently as last year, corn ethanol and biodiesel derived from vegetable oil were widely seen as important weapons in that fight - and a central plank of Gordon Brown's green strategy. Now even their environmental benefits are in question.(Guardian)

There's no way anyone could have predicted that a year or two ago. Oh, wait.


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It would be terribly rude to point out that a couple of people on the Intertubes could predict this two years ago by doing a bit of research in their spare time.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 07:29:04 AM EST
I didn't realize other countries seriously entertained corn ethanol.  Was Brown hoping to win the Iowa caucuses?

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 07:32:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, if your politicians who don't know the last thing about their own country's or continent's agricultural productions and don't have the time to spend two afternoons googling and punching numbers into a calculator, you get all kinds of wonders.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 07:40:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But corn strikes me as a very odd choice for the UK.  Do y'all even produce corn there?  It certainly wasn't a big part of the typical English diet at the pubs.  I can't recall having eaten anything with corn while I was over there, now that I think about it.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 07:44:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
An old friend of mine here in the UK is involved in converting rapeseed oil to biodiesel. Though Europe does produce a fair amount of maize, mostly for animal feed. According to the data afew and I used for our paper two years ago, the EU25 had between 6 and 7 million hectares of Maize, and is not self-sufficient in that particular crop.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 07:49:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
According to Eurostat, the UK produces no grain maize (corn) at all. (The major EU producers are France, with 13 million tonnes in 2006, and Italy with 10 million tonnes).

But wheat and barley (though with lower sugar content), can go into making ethanol.

UK 2006 production:

  • wheat 15 million tonnes
  • barley 5 million tonnes

So can sugar beet, UK 2006 production:

7 million tonnes

But I think it's really a question of support (or not) for the EU policy Andris Piebalgs is still backing, rather than British policy per se.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 09:36:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Gaianne on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 01:27:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In case anyone is wondering, This comment thread is where we did it.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 09:35:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You mean we were right....? :)

reality keeps on amazing me, really.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 10:28:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As recently as last year, corn ethanol....

Right, because we haven't known corn ethanol was a joke forever.  Hell, The West Wing was covering the absurdity years ago.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 07:31:11 AM EST
It's prudent to run the numbers, but like ice on mars, I mean, we already knew the answer.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Fri Jun 20th, 2008 at 02:35:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually, a LTE to that effect might not be a bad idea - I have to run out, so I can't do it.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 07:31:36 AM EST
Supplemental thought: why do politicians love biofuels so much.

  • Rich commercial interests are behind them.
  • Looks like a solution with minimal dislocation to the existing system - easy to sell to people.

Add your own.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 07:37:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They're graspong at straws, if a businessman with a silver bullet can get their ear, off they go.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 07:41:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Also - politicians are stupid.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 08:42:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They're quite good at getting elected.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 08:50:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Voters have to choose between the ones who are there.

Which is why (imo) some voters feel bloody-minded come referendum time.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 09:41:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Would The Guardian accept an Op-ed or give ET a collective gig on CiF?

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 07:42:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But it's happening already, here's a link: here ;-)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 08:40:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
that the common wisdom on this topic has been so comprehensively moved in the right direction so quickly, to be honest.

Maybe there is hope on other topics, if reality intrudes enough (as seems to be the case).

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 08:39:14 AM EST
That only took two years, so yes - by the time oil is around $250-300/bl we can look forward to someone serious noticing there might be a bit of a problem.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 08:43:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And they'll blame Gazprom for predicting it.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 08:45:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think it's scary how close we are to the limits, if reality intrudes so quickly.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 08:44:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
that's the flip of the same coin, indeed.

But i think it's fair to say that what is really remarkable these days is indeed the number of limits we're bumping into at the same time.

This was on the FP on the FT yesterday:


Rare metals soar on demand for efficient jets

The airline industry's fight for survival in the face of soaring oil prices has triggered a massive jump in the price of a number of obscure and scarce metals that are used to improve the fuel economy of jet engines.

Traders said demand for minor metals such as rhenium, chromium, cobalt and titanium is booming as Rolls-Royce, General Electric and Pratt & Whitney buy them for new super-alloys that help cut aircraft fuel consumption.

The jump in the price of rhenium - an extremely rare metal that was the last naturally occurring chemical element to be discovered - is the most striking example of the new environment.

The rhenium price on Tuesday surged to a record of $11,250 a kilogram, more than double last year's level and up from about $1,000 in early 2006, traders said.

In the process of avoiding one limit, you immediately bump into another. There is no longer any easy alternative.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 09:03:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Please act surprised.

Haven't we been documenting this for over two years, now, as well? Like your Peak tires (April 21st, 2006) about how there were not enough giant rubber tyres for the giant trucks used in giant open-pit mining operations.

And there aren't enough foundries to forge enough nuclear reactor cores, and...

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 09:17:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
don't worry, a modern economy doesn't need any industry, just finance firms.

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 09:41:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You know, I'm reading Veblen's Theory of Business Enterprise and already 100 years ago he was describing that feature of modern capitalism. Except that back then financialisation hadn't happened yet. So his writing remains extremely relevant. Almost prescient.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 10:18:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think we can blame bumping into a number of limits not on a lack of stuff in the ground, but on above ground factors like the fact that there have been no investment and no engineers trained in these sectors for 20 years, as everyine has wantoed to work in "modern" things like finance, media and "technology".

(Please hire me CERA).

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 04:02:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
[Migeru's Crystal Ball of Doom™ Technology]

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 09:18:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think that needs a "Muahahahahahahaha!".  Just not right to have an Item of Doom with the maniacal laugh.
by Zwackus on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 05:19:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
[Zwackus' Maniacal Laughter™ Technology]



When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 05:23:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There's no way anyone could have predicted....

- Jake

Ceterum censeo Chicago esse delendam

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 09:17:00 AM EST
.. should get a great huge recognition...

together with Migeru....

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 10:35:34 AM EST
I promise to act surprised as soon as I can quit laughing hysterically.
by vicki on Fri Jun 20th, 2008 at 12:07:47 PM EST


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