European Tribune - LQD: UK on recession watch

LQD: UK on recession watch

by Migeru
Fri Jun 27th, 2008 at 06:00:16 AM EST

Monetarists are at it again...

[Murdoch Alert] Mervyn King moves to calm fears of imminent rate rises

Mr King re-iterated that the Bank still expects inflation to rise to more than 4 per cent before the end of the year and highlighted that controlling inflation was the Bank's only concern.
"I am confident that we will bring inflation back to the target, but I cannot tell you what level of interest rates we will need to set to achieve that, " he said.
Economists say that while there is widely expected to be an increase in interest rates, it is not expected as soon as next month.

(my emphasis)

That's paragraph 9 of the Times' story (which includes a video of King speaking to the Commons), which chooses to obfuscate by headlining the reassurances that no, interest rates will not rise next month while deep in the article we learn that King is getting ready to pull a Volcker.

Meantime, in business reporting, the need to cause an "economic slowdown" is taken for granted...

Boolmberg: King Sees `Weak' Housing Market in Britain, Higher Inflation

King reiterated that economic growth needs to cool to bring inflation under control.
``The economic slowdown will need to be sufficient to ensure that inflation does not persist above the target,'' King said. ``But at the same time, we need to avoid a slowdown that is so pronounced that it would pull inflation down, not just to the target, but below.''

The Guardian focuses on a different aspect of King's speech, the "unwinding" and "deleveraging" of the asset bubble. The credit crunch, you see, is still not over.

The Bank of England governor, Mervyn King, warned yesterday that the credit crunch had entered a new phase he dubbed "the great unwinding", in which banks would dispose of risky assets built up in the past decade.
The phase would take some time to work through, King told the Commons Treasury select committee yesterday but he offered little prospect of interest rate cuts to counteract it. "We are now seeing the great unwinding, or deleveraging as it is known in the US, of banks' balance sheets," King told MPs.
"It is larger and faster than people had realised at the outbreak of the crisis," he said, adding that the "extraordinary" build-up of new, riskier assets on balance sheets over the past five to 10 years would be "substantially wound down".

Apparently this is good news for the Pound, at least with respect to the dollar.

Reuters: Sterling hits 2-mth high as dlr resumes slide

Sterling rose on Thursday to a two-month high as the dollar resumed its decline a day after the U.S. Federal Reserve disappointed the market by giving no hint on when it would start raising interest rates.
That helped offset comments from Bank of England policymakers which caused markets to slightly pare expectations of early interest rate rises, a move that would normally be negative for the pound.
Governor Mervyn King said the BoE wanted to avoid a marked economic slowdown that might pull the inflation rate below target.

. Home
. About
. Contact
. New User Guide
. FAQ
. Search
. Search (Google)
. Archives (Wiki)
Art, Economics, Energy, Environment, EU Politics, Mech & Tech, By Country

Username:
Password:

. Make a new account
. Reset password

LQD: UK on recession watch | 48 comments (48 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (4.00 / 3)

[Migeru's Crystal Ball of Doom™ Technology]

Right, Mervyn King believes inflation in the UK is caused by runaway economic growth...

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 27th, 2008 at 06:01:43 AM EST

Ouch (n/t) (none / 0)

Ceterum censeo Chicago esse delendam

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Jun 27th, 2008 at 06:08:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (4.00 / 2)

He's not being totally ridiculous.

King said there is a risk that slowing economic expansion will bring inflation too far below the central bank's target next year. While four policy makers testifying with King said they considered increasing interest rates this month after inflation reached a decade-high, a move may also exacerbate the economic slowdown.
`Not Sensible'
``It's not sensible to bring inflation back to target in the next six months,'' King said. ``That would lead to a deep recession and that would be silly.''

Rock, meet Hard Place.

I expect there will be a point or so on interest rates for show, inflation will continue to rise, the Tories will win the next election, the BoE's independent economic policy will mean that rates will rise by 5-10%, and the country will spiral into a depression with mass bankruptcies and repossessions.

No one who is officially serious will suggest raising reserve requirements.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Jun 27th, 2008 at 06:49:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (none / 1)

According to Wikipedia UK reserve requirements are voluntary.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 27th, 2008 at 06:56:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (4.00 / 3)

He's not being totally ridiculous. You're right. He's screwed, and trying to grind down those last two percentage points of inflation in so short a time period would almost undoubtedly put Britain in a deep recession. The housing crash is only in its beginning stages over there, and King surely knows this, so there's no decision to really be made until he can get some idea of what's coming.

Whether he'll read the situation correctly is another matter, and I'm not terribly confident.

But, hey, think of it this way: At least King can be held responsible for his own fuck-ups, since he's been in office the whole time. Greenspan timed his departure perfectly, just before the shit hit the fan here, and little Ben got left to take all the blame.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Fri Jun 27th, 2008 at 09:20:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (4.00 / 2)

The Oil Drum: Europe UK Inflation: the only way is up, baby (by Chris Vernon on June 18, 2008)

... King suggests this period of "above-target inflation" is temporary (the target is 2%). This is explained by the inflation being driven by commodity prices rising relative to the prices of other goods and services yet the amount of money being spent in the economy not increasing quickly. ...
...
Then against all expectations King suggests:
It is possible that commodity prices will rise further in the coming months - oil prices have now been rising for four years. But in the absence of further unexpected increases in oil and commodity prices, inflation should peak around the end of the year and begin to fall back towards the 2% target.
Further unexpected increases? Unexpected by whom? For sure, if oil and commodity prices stop rising inflation will fall but I'd hardly call further rises unexpected.
...
An admission that taking the actions required to lower inflation would damage the economy too much so all he can offer is to wait for the sharp rises to drop out of the rolling year and hope there aren't further sharp rises. Waiting and hoping doesn't fill me with confidence. And with no reason to believe current price trends will moderate, at least not before they have wrought havoc with the economy, we're left with an unchecked rise in the rate of inflation.

So, if oil prices stabilize around $150/bbl, non-monetary inflation will subside, and that is what King is pinning his hopes on.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 27th, 2008 at 09:29:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (none / 0)

Well, you yourself said that there was no reason to expect prices to increase much more than $150/bl, because of the issue that alternatives would then become viable if it got much beyond that point, and because of expectations being set. I'm not sure $150 is enough to really get it done.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Fri Jun 27th, 2008 at 09:34:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (4.00 / 3)

No, not me originally... Francois in Paris:

It's riding on the installed base but from an energy cost POV, $135 / 87 &euro is a really poor deal.

For comparison sake, a barrel of oil is about 6.12 GJ / 1,700 KWh. At 87 &euro / bbl, that's 0.051 &euro / kWh, pretty much similar to the actual "bulk" cost of electricity in most Western countries for industrial users. So if you buy oil, you pay the same for an unrefined source of energy before including any conversion loss than you would pay for a similar amount of energy under the most versatile form and "low entropy" form there is.

The premium of portability offered by oil is really starting to be stiff.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 27th, 2008 at 09:44:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (4.00 / 5)

They're not really comparable though. The reality is that if you want to run a car, you have to put refined oil in it. If you want to change to a different kind of car which doesn't use oil - you can't, and you won't be able to for a few years yet. If you want to switch to public transport - often, you can't. If you want to sell your house because you can't afford the commute any more - you can't.

Which is yet another example of the markets creating healthy competition, increasing consumer choice and lowering prices through sound strategic planning, innovation, and foresight, clearly.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Jun 27th, 2008 at 03:49:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (none / 1)

I agree. What this means is that prices might well go up to $500 per barrel within the next 5 years. As this happens, alternative technologies will become very profitable (in fact, the argument is that they already are) and may be developed. When that happens, oil prices may well collapse to $150 again.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 27th, 2008 at 03:52:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (none / 0)

If prices double from $140 to $280, a typical driver driving a typical car in the UK, doing an average annual mileage, will have to find an extra £200-£300/month to keep driving.

At $500/bl that's around £350-£550/month.

The first figure is more or less possible, with severe pain, for maybe two thirds of the population.

The second is possible for around 5% of the population.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Jun 27th, 2008 at 04:54:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (none / 0)

At 10% financing for 5 years, an extra £200, £300, £350 or £550 correspond to a purchase price of £9600, £14000, £17000 and £26000 respectively. How far away can electric cars for those prices be? The G-Wiz costs £8000.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 27th, 2008 at 05:20:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (none / 0)

Is that including the electricity?

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Jun 27th, 2008 at 06:20:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (none / 1)

Hmm, these are additional costs over the current cost of fuel which (see Francois above) is commensurate with the wholesale cost of electricity, which is converted in electric cars at a higher efficiency than in internal combustion engines.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 27th, 2008 at 06:39:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (none / 0)

Assuming a 50A charge current and 10,000,000 cars - which is one third of the current UK total - that would need a potential extra worst case peak capacity of 110GW.

You can smear that out because not everyone will plug in at exactly the same moment, but if a third of the cars are charging at once, that's 36GW - which is around half the UK's current peak capacity of 75GW.

You can design trade-offs, where a lower charge current - 13A would be ideal - takes longer, but then you get into all kinds of interesting situations where people can be marooned at remote destinations or trapped at home waiting for their cars to charge.

You can also enforce off-peak charging, which might solve the capacity problem, but can create similar difficulties for those times when someone needs transport immediately.

Also - cost and complication. And security. Not everyone has a garage. Whether you charge at 50A or 13A, you're going to have mains cables poking out of houses and running across pavements - extra fun when it rains. And good luck trying to park more than 10m from your home. Or streets will have to be rewired with charging points and some kind of billing system.

And so on. It's not a simple 'Let's go electric.' There are some serious practical issues to solve before electric driving becomes a realistic alternative.

So there has to be a push, either in the form of government subsidy, or in much lower prices, before people will accept these restrictions. I suspect many consumers who can afford to will continue to pay an insane petrol tax, and won't sit down and do a comparative calculation to see how much they could save unless someone holds a gun to their heads.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Jun 27th, 2008 at 07:52:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (none / 0)

Right, it's not easy but it's not impossible. And at $200/bbl people there will be an incentive for car manufacturers to produce electric cars that cost less than £50k...

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jun 28th, 2008 at 05:04:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (none / 1)

It's not the cost of the cars, it's the cost of the infrastructure.

I used to live in a flat in a Gergian terrace with - almost uniquely for Bath - plenty of parking space outside.

How would I recharge my car? With a long lead out of a window?

And let's not think too hard what happens if someone has visitors over. If they all want to recharge overnight, how is that going to work? What happens if someone can't find a socket and needs to be at work tomorrow?

You can't just swap to electric cars overnight - you need to replace the current petrol distribution infrastructure with something equivalent. Which is not a small job.

Aside from generation, some areas won't have enough local distribution capacity, and you have to solve that final connection problem. Putting pavement level sockets in front of a terrace for a couple of hundred cars wouldn't be cheap or simple - never mind working out a billing system that works fairly. The sockets would have to be everywhere that cars park regularly, otherwise people and cars will be stranded.

Once you add security and accounting, it turns into an impressively untrivial and very much uncheap country-sized project.

You can either go down that route, or you can keep the existing infrastructure and replace it with industrial high-current filling stations which can recharge a car in a few minutes. But then you need a kA delivery and battery system, and that technology isn't available yet.

So the best you can hope for from the current state of the art is some mitigation for the middle classes and upwards, who have garages and will be able to pay for the extra installation costs. It will take some pressure off petrol prices, but it's not - yet - a realistic alternative.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Jun 28th, 2008 at 11:43:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (none / 1)

I keep thinking synthetic fuels (such as DME) from renewable electricity should be part of the answer because they reduce the required amount of retrofitting of the infrastructure, but those will be more expensive than current fuels and we can't deploy them immediately either.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jun 28th, 2008 at 11:48:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (none / 1)

Absolutely.

This ties in with "stranded wind", and liquid fuels as an energy vector.

Norway's Norsk Hydro "fixed" nitrates from cheap

hydro power

since 1907.

I'm sure I read somwhere recently about some US academic who has invented a new process for fixing CO2 and H2O into hydrocarbons with a great deal of potential for getting the costs right down.

The cost of synthetic hydrocarbons should essentially place a "cap" on non-renewables.

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sat Jun 28th, 2008 at 09:36:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (none / 1)

The cost of synthetic hydrocarbons should essentially place a "cap" on non-renewables.

Except for the delay in building the industrial plant to manufacture the synthfuels.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 29th, 2008 at 02:07:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (none / 1)

How would I recharge my car? With a long lead out of a window?

Plug it into the block heater outlet.

If they all want to recharge overnight, how is that going to work?

Plugs are cheap, and I'm sure an extra block heater outlet or two per house can be afforded.

I've been having some talks with my local housing organization board or however you translate it (ie the elected board running the finances of the building) after I moved in about were I could recharge my electric scooter. We found a couple of outlets on a wall and it worked out fine.

Now, the good thing is that this got my good neighbours (ie the board) thinking: what are they going to do when everyone else in the house starts buying electrics and plug-in hybrids?

So they are already looking at the capacity of the wires, and where to put the outlets and so on.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sat Jun 28th, 2008 at 05:01:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (4.00 / 2)

Every Finnish apartment parking space has electric outlets for each car. They are used for preheating the oil in the sump during the winter. Most of them are on timers, so they are only 'live' from say 6 am to 8 am. You plug in when you get home at night and the car warms up quickly in the morning.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sat Jun 28th, 2008 at 06:37:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (none / 1)

Okay - I checked the ratings for these, and the power is around 350W for a typical heater.

A typical car is going to need at least 3KW, and possibly 30kW if you want a much faster charging time.

So this will work for scooters, but not for cars.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Jun 29th, 2008 at 07:52:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (none / 1)

I agree. I was pointing out that some of the infrastructure exists in the Nordic countries. These sockets are also provided at corporate parking spaces. BTW both these domestic and corporate outlets are rarely used with our increasingly mild winters - at least in the south of Finland.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Jun 29th, 2008 at 08:33:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (none / 0)

I think they are electronically limited, or something like that, to 6A. So that would make it almost 1400 W. But I'm not sure. I do know I've pulled 900 W from one ot these as I have this tiny cheap multi-metre.

You absolutely won't need 30 kW as trickle charge would be the thing. A full charge could take 8 hours without creating a fuss.

If a PHEV will have a battery of 10 kWh and a true electric 30 kWh (WAG's), 1.25 kW and 3.75 kW respectively would suffice.

For fast charging (like 10-15 minutes) three phase power at a filling station would be the reasonable alternative.

Such a filling station would need some really impressive power lines by the way. Say you want to be able to charge six 30 kWh electrics at the same time, in 15 minutes. Then you'd need 0.72 MW's.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sun Jun 29th, 2008 at 12:21:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (4.00 / 2)

If the heater plugs are wired directly back to the individual dwelling unit, so that the billing stays together, there should be no problem. Even at 115VAC, as in the USA, 3 #12AWG wires will carry sufficient current to charge a car for more than 200 feet. At the higher voltages used in Europe, the situation improves. I find it hard to imagine that any builder installed conduit less than one half inch trade size, American. Wires will fit, it is a specific application, and if necessary, codes could be amended to allow reuse of existing pathways for such a use, especially if access is purpose metered.

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.

by ARGeezer (argeezer a in a circle yahoo dot com) on Sun Jun 29th, 2008 at 01:55:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

By the way (none / 1)

It's not the cost of the cars, it's the cost of the infrastructure.

I disagree completely with that. A back of the hand calculation will show that upgrading the grid a bit and building some new reactors will be far cheaper than buying millions of electric cars.

I wouldn't be surprised if the cost of the new cars will be a magnitude, or two(!) bigger than that of the new infrastructure.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sat Jun 28th, 2008 at 05:05:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: By the way (none / 1)

Not in the UK. I've never seen a block heater before, and I have no idea what it does.

Who pays for the electricity you use if you plug yourself into it?

There are around a hundred parking spaces in front of the terrace I mentioned, and maybe another thirty spaces around the back. At 13A that's an extra distribution capacity of around 400kVA.

I don't know how much it costs to upgrade a distribution transformer, but I'd guess it's at least equivalent to a handful of cars. Then add a billing and accounting system, and it's Not Simple.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Jun 28th, 2008 at 06:15:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: By the way (none / 1)

My scooter uses so little electricity that we have decided just to ignore it and put the cost on the building, that is, everyone in the building pays a few cents a year on their rent to finance my scooter recharging.

Eventually as everyone get these things and charge cars instead of scooters, it will become a relevant cost.

But if you look at the picture of the outlet, it has a lock. Only with the right key can it be used. And measuring the consumption should not be hard. After all, it is probably already done somehow. Or possibly you can use as much power as you want when you manage to get hold of one of the leased parking spots, which all have these outlets. The you also get the key.

All household power consumption data in this city is remotely measured and sent directly to the power company. I don't know if they use the internet, the GSM net or even the power lines themselves, but somehow they do it. But I guess you could play around a little with the wires and software and integrate the heaters into this system, if it's not already done.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sat Jun 28th, 2008 at 07:34:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: By the way (none / 1)

Eventually as everyone get these things and charge cars instead of scooters, it will become a relevant cost.

But if everyone is charging their vehicles, then it can still be a shared cost.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 29th, 2008 at 02:05:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: By the way (4.00 / 2)

Not everyone will be, because not everyone will own a car.

Car ownership in that terrace isn't more than 50%, so it's going to be hard to persuade the other 50% that they should share the cost.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Jun 29th, 2008 at 07:55:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: By the way (none / 0)

The easiest thing if you don't want to fiddle with electronics would be to put the additional costs on top of the rental cost to have a reserved parking lot. Everyone who drives would use about as much power and that amount needn't be regsitered, as electricity is so cheap compared to gasoline.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sun Jun 29th, 2008 at 12:17:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (4.00 / 3)

Putting pavement level sockets in front of a terrace for a couple of hundred cars wouldn't be cheap or simple - never mind working out a billing system that works fairly. The sockets would have to be everywhere that cars park regularly, otherwise people and cars will be stranded.

Having some experience in contracting I can say that such a prospect would set Consulting Electrical Engineers and Electrical Contractors to drooling. Electrifying your 200 car lot would be simple in an underground or indoor lot. Buried utilities in an outdoor lot would be more expensive. I used to figure $100/foot for concrete encased underground conduit. Line the cars up nose to nose on 10' centers and you would have 1000' of trench.

More likely, folks would learn to love the sight of painted, exposed galvanized, rigid conduit for a fraction of that price. With an exposed installation time to install would probably be well less than a month. Such a project on a nationwide scale would definitely stimulate the economy. It would be a good time to be an electrical contractor. It ain't rocket science.

Designing a metering system that would accommodate time of day dependent rates and that could read I.D. codes embedded in the electric vehicle and in a card carried by the user is mostly a problem of selecting and getting agreement on standards. Were conduit laid out to accommodate a full allotment of 200 vehicles, wire and metering devices could be added as demand builds. This would allow time to upgrade the distribution infrastructure as required. I have seen estimates that existing generating capacity would suffice for charging cars were the load shifted to minimum load hours, such as 12:00-5:00 AM.

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.

by ARGeezer (argeezer a in a circle yahoo dot com) on Sun Jun 29th, 2008 at 01:15:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (none / 1)

In the UK you could solve the metering problem with charging keys. People who don't pay their bills regularly here have a plastic key with the inevitable microprocessor inside it, and they can top it up at newsagents. Using a similar system would make supply independent of house metering, which would be a good thing. There are other alternatives, like radio ID tags for the car. But any fair system is literally going to need millions of meter units.

I don't think you can run exposed conduits here, because most of these installations won't be in lots, they'll be on pavements. You can't run conduits across pavements without turning them into an obstacle course. So they'd have to be suspended or run underground. £100/ft might be reasonable in the UK. The terrace is maybe 600ft long, and you'd need access points on both sides of the street. Let's call it 1000ft in total.

£100k, not including metering - for one terrace, with a few hundred people living in it. Scale that to the entire city and the total is upwards of £100m.

Now - you could make people pay for the installation, but it's going to add a £2k-£3k premium to the price of the car, and you may get a mess if you do things that way.

Top down £100m wouldn't be impossible, but it would need some serious cheerleading from both local and national government. Bath wasted £35m (!) getting a showcase spa project finished, but councils are usually less keen to spend money on essential infrastructure than on giant white elephant projects.

Either way it's something that has to be organised - there are only so many electric cars you can sell to people with garages, and if you want ordinary people to start using them, the transition is going to cost money.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Jun 29th, 2008 at 08:21:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (none / 0)

Double the cost for your 200 car parking terrace to include the cost of meters and wiring. At 200K for the complex the payoff would be around 2000/month. Assume two cars per residence and divide by 100 and you have a 20/household monthly infrastructure charge, plus, of course, the cost of electricity, and that is for two cars. For those who need less than 100km/day of range this could be a very affordable solution. I wonder if enterprising sorts will devise wholesale electric conversion processes for gasoline powered vehicles. Replace the engine and gas tank with an electric motor and batteries. If that could be done at a fraction of the cost of a new electric vehicle it would greatly reduce the size of the pile of redundant vehicles.

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.

by ARGeezer (argeezer a in a circle yahoo dot com) on Sun Jun 29th, 2008 at 01:42:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You're being disingenuous (4.00 / 4)

Inflation is caused by virtual economic growth causing too high monetary growth - or directly by moetary growth, which happens to create apparent economic growth at the same time.

Inflation is generally a sign that economic growth is not really there, or was generated in unsustainable ways, and must now be paid for.

In any case, I don't know why you'd want the current economic "growth", which benefits only a few, to continue (not to mention wider resource/sustainability issues).

The fact that the focus is on leverage unwinding is most proper, because that's where the crisis, and the artifical macroeconomic numbers, come from.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Fri Jun 27th, 2008 at 07:26:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You're being disingenuous (none / 0)

Unless inflation is caused by global commodity prices, food and fuel primarily.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 27th, 2008 at 07:30:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

There need not be inflation (none / 0)

higher oil prices can lead to lower prices for other goods, at least those whose oil/commodity content is low, and whose purchase can be avoided, to keep overall prices stable.

ie changes in relative prices need not bring about inflation.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Fri Jun 27th, 2008 at 08:29:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: There need not be inflation (4.00 / 2)

Sure, in theory. Does it happen in practice?

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 27th, 2008 at 08:31:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Usually? (none / 1)

No.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Fri Jun 27th, 2008 at 08:35:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Usually? (4.00 / 3)

Has it ever happened?

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Jun 27th, 2008 at 03:49:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: There need not be inflation (4.00 / 2)

How do you do that ?

all food need energy to be produced, transported, sold, which is addition of the price increase in commodity.
I have hard time to believe that this "exogenous" inflation is negligible and could be tamed by rates increase.
no offense but where is the economical growth you are talking about ?

These inflation targets seem quite irrational to me. not every things is equal.

by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Fri Jun 27th, 2008 at 09:19:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You're being disingenuous (4.00 / 2)

I'm not the one conflating asset bubbles with "growth" - King is.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 27th, 2008 at 07:33:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

ok (none / 1)

fair enough.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Fri Jun 27th, 2008 at 08:34:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You're being disingenuous (none / 1)

And it could be we aren't looking at inflation at all. It could simply be that petroleum, food, precious metals, and the US dollar have broken loose from price points that were maintained by unsustainable market manipulations and are now seeking equilibrium. In other words, we have taken the red pill and left The Matrix.

by rifek on Sat Jun 28th, 2008 at 11:20:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (none / 1)

This is London: The royal recession: Queen hit by credit crunch (27.06.08)

Official statistics showed the economy grew by only 0.3 in the first three months of the year. It was the slowest rate of expansion for three years and was met with shock in the City where experts said there was now a chance of an economic collapse.
Recession is defined as two successive quarters of financial decline - not seen in Britain since the early Nineties.
The figures were published as the Queen was revealed to have been hit by costs soaring by nearly twice the official rate of inflation and her budget being frozen. Accounts from Buckingham Palace show the bill for running the monarchy soared by 5.3 per cent to £40 million last year.

I have no idea what the Queen's rising costs have to do with the credit crunch, but it made for entertaining headlines today...

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 27th, 2008 at 03:03:48 PM EST

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (none / 1)

The article doesn't claim any connection, just that they happened at the same time...

Associated Press has an explanation for some of the increased costs:

He [Sir Alan Reid, Keeper of the Privy Purse] said the increase in overseas travel spending is a result of a higher number of requests from the Foreign and Commonwealth Office for the queen and other senior royals to make official visits abroad.
A palace spokeswoman said this applies to the queen's side trip to the Kentucky Derby as well. She said that Foreign Office officials had asked her to travel to the United States and that the entire journey was part of an official visit when she was representing Britain as head of state.
"All of that trip was undertaken at the request of the Foreign Office on behalf of the government," said the spokeswoman, who asked not to be identified because of the monarch's press policy.

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Fri Jun 27th, 2008 at 04:19:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LQD: UK on recession watch (none / 1)

The article doesn't, but the headline does...

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 27th, 2008 at 04:21:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

LQD: UK on recession watch | 48 comments (48 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Go to: [ European Tribune Homepage : Top of page : Top of comments ]