An opportunity for Europe to remove the U.S. from Iraq

by Magnifico
Fri Jun 6th, 2008 at 08:30:16 PM EST

There is possibly an upcoming opportunity for Europe to remove the U.S. from Iraq.

If you've been following Patrick Cockburn's reports for The Independent over the past couple days, then you will no doubt be aware of how the Bush administration is using threats to force the Iraqis to allow the United States to stay indefinently.

On Thursday, came the headline Revealed: Secret plan to keep Iraq under US control. In which, Cockburn outlined an agreement that Bush is demanding from the Iraqis. The Bush administration wants 50 military bases in Iraq, control of the country's airspace below 29,000 feet, and legal immunity for all American soldiers and contractors. In addition, Bush is demanding "the right to pursue its 'war on terror' in Iraq, giving it the authority to arrest anybody it wants and to launch military campaigns without consultation."


On Friday, the follow-up story explained how George W. Bush intends to get Iraq to give up it's sovereignty. In US issues threat to Iraq's $50bn foreign reserves in military deal, Cockburn reports that:

The US is holding hostage some $50bn (£25bn) of Iraq's money in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to pressure the Iraqi government into signing an agreement seen by many Iraqis as prolonging the US occupation indefinitely, according to information leaked to The Independent.

US negotiators are using the existence of $20bn in outstanding court judgments against Iraq in the US, to pressure their Iraqi counterparts into accepting the terms of the military deal...

Iraq's foreign reserves are currently protected by a presidential order giving them immunity from judicial attachment but the US side in the talks has suggested that if the UN mandate, under which the money is held, lapses and is not replaced by the new agreement, then Iraq's funds would lose this immunity. The cost to Iraq of this happening would be the immediate loss of $20bn. The US is able to threaten Iraq with the loss of 40 per cent of its foreign exchange reserves because Iraq's independence is still limited by the legacy of UN sanctions and restrictions imposed on Iraq since Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in the 1990s. This means that Iraq is still considered a threat to international security and stability under Chapter Seven of the UN charter. The US negotiators say the price of Iraq escaping Chapter Seven is to sign up to a new "strategic alliance" with the United States.

So, will the members of the U.N. Security Council allow the Bush administration to extort a security agreement from Iraq? Or, will they allow Bush to rob billions for the Iraqis? According to the Washington Post, Iraq May Request Extension For U.S., the Security Council may have a say in Bush's scheme.

The Iraqi government may request an extension of the United Nations security mandate authorizing a U.S. military presence, due to expire in December, amid growing domestic criticism of new bilateral arrangements now being negotiated with the Bush administration, according to senior Iraqi officials...

Failure to reach an agreement on the arrangements, which must be approved by the Iraqi parliament, would leave the negotiations over a future U.S.-Iraqi relationship and the role of U.S. forces in the country to the next American president.

Iraq is rightfully balking at Bush's election year demands. Iraq is being blackmailed and there is something that the three European members of the United Nation's Security Council -- Britain, France, and Russia -- could possibly do about it.

"Bush wants to push it through by the end of next month so he can declare a military victory and claim his 2003 invasion has been vindicated," according to first report in The Independent. However, there is little chance that Iraq will capitulate so quickly. Instead, Iraq is going to ask for an extension from the U.N. that would permit the U.S. to continue its occupation.

From the Post:

The Iraqi official, who said he could speak candidly only with anonymity, said there was virtually no chance that the July deadline, set by Bush and Maliki last fall, would be met. He said an Iraqi request to extend the U.N. mandate might come as early as next week, when Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari is to brief the U.N. Security Council.

For U.S. troops to remain in Iraq, a senior U.S. official said, "they either have to have U.N. authority or bilateral authority. You've got to have one or the other to have a basis for [a military] presence."

Iraq appears to being the route of the U.N. rather than a bilateral agreement between the U.S. and them. So, this would give the U.N. Security Council a say and a veto.

I doubt that Britain will veto the request, but it would allow Gordon Brown an opportunity to do something bold to save Labour's chance in future elections. Such a move might even save his job as prime minister, but still the U.K. will not veto. France? Equally ridiculous with Nicolas Sarkozy apparent friendship with George W. Bush and his desire to cozy France up with the United States.

So, it falls upon Russia. Would the Dmitry Medvedev / Vladimir Putin Russia veto? Russia opposed the invasion back in 2003 and has not supported the occupation since then. And Putin, as recently as last fall, described the U.S. in Iraq as being "pointless".

Unlike Europe, Russia is not been afraid to use its diplomatic and economic power to block the U.S. Bush is a lame duck and there is little, if anything, to be gained by capitulating to his tantrums and demands. Could Russia say nyet?

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Just a guess, but letting the US bleed out in Iraq is very compatible with Russia's most likely aims and strategies.  

Not that the US would leave anyway.  Which reopens the possibility of nyet as a very popular gesture with no real downside.  

I suppose it really depends on whether Russia wants to heat-up or cool down the discourse.  They have been staying pretty low-key in the Middle East so far.  

by Gaianne on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 12:23:02 AM EST
So, you're saying Europe should extend the UN mandate for the US to stay in Iraq in order to remove the US from Iraq?

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 07:36:32 AM EST
Huh? Exactly the opposite of that.

I'm saying Europe should block a U.N. extension of the mandate. France, Britain, or Russia should use their Security Council veto to block any such extension and should also use their diplomatic clout to prevent the U.S. from stealing the $20bn of Iraq's funds.

by Magnifico on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 01:24:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I see three possibilities.

  1. Either the US get a renewal of its UN mandate
  2. Or they get the Iraqi government to agree to a "permanent presence"
  3. Or they don't get authorization from either.

You're suggesting 3. is best; it's possible that that is not the case. That would free up the US troops to attack Iran. The US could also ignore it and topple the Iraqi government, trying to get a more puppety puppet to give them 2. which is what they really want in order for Bush to "declare victory and leave".

Russia (and China) would be only too happy to extend the UN authorization for the US to stay bogged down and bleeding in Iraq.

For Britain or France to oppose a request from the Iraqi government (as opposed to by the US) to extend a US mandate would be politically difficult to justify.

Since the "permanent presence" is a disaster I think granting the Iraqi government's request for an extension of the US presence is the least bad option. It keeps the US bogged down, it frustrates their attempt to declare victory and leave, and it helps the Iraqi government to resist US government pressure.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 05:29:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The troops are plenty "freed up" to attack Iran. Where the U.S. comes up short is having enough troops to occupy Afghanistan and Iraq, let alone Iran.

Regardless if victory is declared or not, getting the U.S. to leave is the problem. The current setting is the U.S. will not leave without this nebulous "victory", but once Bush has his "victory" the U.S. won't be leaving either.

As you say, Russia and China are likely to be content with letting the U.S. drive itself into the ground by remaining in Iraq. Europe (France and Britain) can go along with extending the U.N. mandate and still gain the benefit of a U.S. ruining itself.

Regardless of a "victory" moment, the U.S. isn't leaving Iraq.

by Magnifico on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 10:48:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The troops are plenty "freed up" to attack Iran. Where the U.S. comes up short is having enough troops to occupy Afghanistan and Iraq, let alone Iran.

You know what I'm really afraid of? A scenario in which the US becomes a serial killer of states, causing state failure one country at a time. Failed states don't compete for resources, and the US is safe in North America with two shining seas to protect it from spillover.

It is very easy to bomb a country to the stone age and move on. And another. And another. And on and on.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 8th, 2008 at 03:11:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The EU could give Iraq $20bn...

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 09:56:17 AM EST
Yeah, well, we could also give them some hard currency instead...

- Jake

640 kiloton should be enough for anybody

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 10:17:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I've maintained since before the war started that the US had several objectives in Iraq.
  1. Replace bases lost in Saudi Arabia
  2. Install Iraqi client regime that will supply oil at favorable terms
  3. Intimidate neighboring states
  4. Keep resources away from China

The progress:
  1. The US has built four megabases and about 15 smaller bases in Iraq. The bigger bases have complete airfield capabilities, US style housing and amenities such as McDonald's and entertainment and sports facilities. When McCain says we will be in Iraq for 100 years he is referring to these bases and using Korea and Germany as the model. Why would the US have spent billions on construction if is was planning to leave? Formalizing the arrangement that was planned from the beginning is just paperwork.
  2. Partially successful, The oil supply is increasing, but the client regime is not yet functional. Remember the oil ministry was the only building protected after the invasion.
  3. Syria and Libya are behaving "better". Egypt and Jordan are not problems so the intimidation is partially successful. The fact than Iran has failed to be impressed is like a burr under the saddle to the Bushies. It is causing them to overreact, or at least to make people think they will overreact.
  4. China has been blocked from Iraq, but while the Bushies were preoccupied has been locking up deals in Africa and elsewhere. Count this objective as a loss.

I think Chalmers Johnson explained the base issue in one of his books a couple of years ago. There is nothing new here except that the asleep-at-the-switch press has started to notice.

Policies not Politics
---- Daily Landscape
by rdf (robert.feinman@gmail.com) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 05:09:45 PM EST
I agree, of course the U.S. is not planning on leaving -- "victory" or not.

I disagree about the oil flowing in Iraq. If it's flowing it's being "stolen".

What Syria has been doing is being less of a target than Iran. Syria is not behaving "better" if Israeli attacks on their alleged nuclear facility are to be believed.

Lastly, China has not been blocked from Iraq at all. In some ways, the Iraqis seem to be viewing China as their "best option" partner for oil exploration and exploitation.

For example:

Oct 2006: Iraq, China to revive Saddam-era oil deal as Baghdad seeks investment

China and Iraq are reviving a 1997 deal worth US$1.2 billion (€850 million) signed by Beijing and Saddam Hussein's government to develop an Iraqi oil field, Baghdad's oil minister said Saturday.

Officials will meet next month to renegotiate the agreement over the al-Ahdab field, said Iraqi Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani. He was wrapping up a three-nation tour to secure investment to revive his country's oil industry...

The new Baghdad government courted Beijing because Chinese producers have been willing to invest in Angola, Sudan and other countries that are considered too dangerous or politically isolated...

Beijing had been thought to be out of the running for major contracts in postwar Iraq...

April 2008: Iraq qualifies four Chinese companies for oil contracts

Four Chinese oil companies were among 35 companies that qualified to participate in Iraq's coming licensing round for oil and gas contracts, the Iraqi Oil Ministry said on Tuesday.

A statement issued by the ministry said that CNOOC China LTD, CNPC, Sinochem and Sinopec Group won rights to bid tenders to develop oil and gas fields in Iraq.

From 120 applicants around the world, only 35 companies and consortia, were qualified in accordance to criteria put by the Iraqi Oil Ministry, according to the statement.

Plus, as you note, China has been securing oil resources everywhere else in the world too.

by Magnifico on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 11:04:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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