European Tribune

Financial crisis: the next scam to fleece US taxpayers

by Jerome a Paris
Sat Aug 2nd, 2008 at 07:45:29 AM EST

As if Bear Stearns ($50 billion in loans plus $29 billion in loss guarantees to JP Morgan) and Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac ($4 trillion in liabilities dumped back on the government's balance sheet) stories were not enough, investment bankers seem to have come up with a new scheme to loot those smallers banks that are about to go bankrup in droves in the near future, and leave the bill with the taxpayer.

The magic tool is "covered bonds." Here's how it goes.

with thanks to ARGeezer for pointing out the links and the scenario

Brought across by afew


Covered bonds are, in themselves, a very safe form of debt, in use in Europe for more than 2 centuries. Their principle is that the debt is backed by both the issuer and by a pool of financial assets subject to strict guidelines.

The main difference with the now infamous mortgaged-backed securities (which are backed by pools of mortgages) is the first point: ie the entity launching the bonds is still liable for them, so it has a direct interest in ensuring that the pool of assets backing the bonds have real value, otherwise it will be on the hook (as opposed to the creators of MBSs, which did not care what happened to their products once they had sold them, and thus took less than perfect care in building up their pools of assets).

The other difference is that the requirements with respect to the quality of the underlying assets tend to be much more stringent and specific, thus ensuring that they won't collaspe like the mortgages used in MBSs did.

Covered bonds are seen as a way for weakened financial players to extract liquidity from their otherwise illiquid long term assets, and therefore to free up balance sheet capacity to extend new mortgages. The Us Treasury has thus issued new guidelines to help develop that asset class, to help support the mortage market and beleaguered US banks.

So far, so good.

But in an intriguing twist noted by London Banker, the FDIC (the public entity in charge of protecting depositors from failing banks, and dealing with the aftermath of such bankruptcies) has provided a new policy statement with respect to covered bonds, which provides for an "expedited access to collateral pledged for certain covered bonds."

What this means is that lenders under covered bonds to banks that go bankrupt will have priority access to the underlying assets even during the bankrupcy process (whereas ordinary creditors will ony have access on a collective basis to the remaining unsecured assets, the quality of which is likely to be relatively poor, given that the bank went under).

This makes sense as a way to ensure that covered bonds are genuinely safer than the alternatives, an incentive that is probably required in today's markets to ensure that more liquidity becomes available.

But here's how that can go awry, as per London Banker:


If I had to guess, I suspect what we will soon see is something near to the following scenario:

Lists will circulate of troubled banks likely to go into FDIC receivership. Blogs have been full of such lists as of this week, quite suddenly, as it happens. The FDIC has to have a list because there are so many banks approaching insolvency that they are queued for FDIC receivership rather like planes circling Heathrow waiting for runway clearance to land.

Several of the central players in the recent market dramas - particularly those investment banks and hedge funds on close terms with Mr Paulson (naming no names, but initials GS comes to mind) - will go strong and aggressive for the covered bond market. They will go around to their list of troubled banks, which of course they will have compiled independently using Texas Ratio maybe, rather than having any foreknowledge of FDIC concerns. They will issue covered bonds to these trouble banks against any assets with real, proveable value left on the banks' balance sheets.

They will be praised to the heavens by their friends in Washington as providing timely and necessary liquidity to a troubled banking system, proving the efficiency of the free market, bravely bearing the risk of new credit in exchange for troubled bank assets.

When the troubled bank nonetheless fails, our golden circle creditors get the good collateral in an expedited release from FDIC under its new policy statement. The FDIC is left with all the toxic waste assets and liability for depositor insurance claims, with no prospect of recovery of any value from the insolvent bank liquidation.

In other words, unscrupulous investment bankers might see an opportunity in helping weaker banks launching covered bonds; given their circumstances, these banks will have to provide top notch collateral, ie their best remaining assets, and will probably not get a great price for them (ie the bonds will be both overcollateralised and expensive). If that cash is stll not enough to solve these banks' problems - and give nthe scale of the crisis, it's likely not to be in many cases - then these banks will indeed go bankrupt, a little later than expected, but at that point they will have been sucked dry of their best assets, leaving only the junk behind - and leaving the cost of protecting depositors to FDIC, ie ultimately taxpayers, once the existing reserves of FDIC are drained.

And the investment banks will have (i) made fat fees on the covered bonds and (ii) grabbed good quality assets from the balance sheet of these banks in "expedited" fashion.

As ARGeezer duly noted, they are likely to get away with it because:


One: Very few people will pay close enough attention to notice what is happening.  It sounds wonky.

Two: If they speak out, they are endangering the contributions from these banks to their re-election campaigns.

Three: They can always say that they didn't expect THIS to happen.

Just a scenario at this point, but who would be willing to bet against the greed of the investment bankers and the cluelessness of the smaller banks when relief (even of the temporary kind) comes knocking at their door in desperate times?

But just for the record: the US Treasury will have been fully complicit.

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In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Thu Jul 31st, 2008 at 08:43:41 AM EST
So the big investment banks are essentially going to drain the small troubled banks of their good assets and leave the rest of us holding the bad shit.

Capitalism!

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Jul 31st, 2008 at 09:07:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the cluelessness of the smaller banks
How come the people in charge of these smaller banks are so stupid? In my naivety I thought you'd need certain skills and a rather sharp intellect to become in charge of a bank, even if it's relatively small.

[discussing a financial scandal]

Sir Desmond Glazebrook: They've broken the rules.

Sir Humphrey: What, you mean the insider trading regulations?

Sir Desmond Glazebrook: No.

Sir Humphrey: Oh. Well, that's one relief.

Sir Desmond Glazebrook: I mean of course they've broken those, but they've broken the basic, the basic rule of the City.

Sir Humphrey: I didn't know there were any.

Sir Desmond Glazebrook: Just the one. If you're incompetent you have to be honest, and if you're crooked you have to be clever. See, if you're honest, then when you make a pig's breakfast of things the chaps rally round and help you out.

Sir Humphrey: If you're crooked?

Sir Desmond Glazebrook: Well, if you're making good profits for them, chaps don't start asking questions; they're not stupid. Well, not that stupid.

Sir Humphrey: So the ideal is a firm which is honest and clever.

Sir Desmond Glazebrook: Yes. Let me know if you ever come across one, won't you.



Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Thu Jul 31st, 2008 at 11:33:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How come the people in charge of these smaller banks are so stupid?  In my naivety I thought you'd need certain skills and a rather sharp intellect to become in charge of a bank, even if it's relatively small.

You don't understand.  This is America.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Jul 31st, 2008 at 11:39:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They are looking at their jobs going down with the bank.  While it would be shocking for them to receive "commissions" or other considerations for decisions favorable to the "covered bond" pedaler, it could just happen.  My bet would be on the "other consideration" option.  

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (argeezer a in a circle yahoo dot com) on Thu Jul 31st, 2008 at 02:31:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I had something to say, so I decided to turn it into a separate diary, rather than a comment. Perhaps Jerome, as the banker, can set me straight on anywhere I've gone wrong.

Real Estate Meltdown!

Policies not Politics
---- Daily Landscape

by rdf (robert.feinman@gmail.com) on Thu Jul 31st, 2008 at 11:45:12 AM EST
So who here at ET is in touch with

  1.  The Obama campaign,

  2.  Democracy Now/ Amy Goodman

  3.  Countdown/ Keith Olbermann

  4.  fill in the blank

in order to give these folks a heads-up before it happens.  These people love to look smart; "I warned you about this and was ignored."  Think Obama and the Iraq invasion.

McCain/Palin ... total sacks of SHIT!
by THE Twank (paszeski__aaaaaaatttttt__yahoo.com) on Thu Jul 31st, 2008 at 02:16:36 PM EST
Please do anything you think useful.  I am composing letters to my congressional representatives and letters to the editor.

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (argeezer a in a circle yahoo dot com) on Thu Jul 31st, 2008 at 02:34:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not a finance guy.  Please explain/debunk the following:

The US is being looted willy-nilly and my gut feeling is, is that this cannot go on forever.  Eventually the bill is going to come due; the US will run out of creditors/good will.

How is this CRASH likely to manifest itself?  What other countries will go down with the US?  Are we talking food/fuel shortages in the US?  Should I be dusting off my late '60s riot gear?  CSN&Y "OHIO" anyone?

McCain/Palin ... total sacks of SHIT!

by THE Twank (paszeski__aaaaaaatttttt__yahoo.com) on Thu Jul 31st, 2008 at 02:45:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is a picture of "the" crash -- the federal reserve bank system crash to be specific. The reserve "system" comprises about 8,000 depository banks which are of course publicly traded corporate entities. These banks lend money to depositors and commercial entities such as brokerages and retailers. They also have been selling their debt assets to investment banks (i.e. FRB "primary dealers).

Left: non-borrowed reserves; right: borrowed funds. The FRB lends funds by selling T-bills, redeeming USD from foreign central banks and SIVs. The trend is not reversing. In fact, the FRB opened a new discount window for the Fannies and extended availability to all term credit facilities into Q2[?] 2009. The business press focusses on private-equiy/hedge fund losses because the bottom-line is too broad and too ugly to contemplate.

The various types of collateral accepted from borrowers (banks and "prime dealers" and their borrowers) is pro forma, professional courtesy, if you will, as these assets are otherwise worthless. Like establishing covered bond market of the same underlying, non-performing assets.

As you see, the reserve banks have a cash flow problem, which business analysts and economists attribute to "subprime" borrower defaults. Alas, the data engross also corporate borrowers who have been dependent on short-term (QoQ)"liquidity" provided by those banks to meet their operating expenses. You may have read recently about same-store closings and layoffs across a number of industries; I predict such crude cost avoidance will persist into Q4 2009 in order to create free cash flows for debt payments. Similarly, this graph, afaik, doesn't include savings & loan and credit union cash flows although these corporate entities are regulated by US treasury bureaus. They can't directly sell debt in foreign markets. So as far as I can tell FDIC is mostly reporting (small cap) S&Ls and community bank failures quarterly. I predict reserve banks will acquire their assets, cheaply.

Ultimately, food/fuel shortages in the US will be dependent on (1) decelerating production volume (2) producer price inflation which passes through to consumers such as yourself, specifically, how much of either you are willing and able to purchase.

If you're out of a job and unemployment insurance or you can't liquidate your portfolio, you may well find yourself at a "faith-based" pantry to collect "means-tested" rations.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by MarketTrustee (pbing@estudioinc.com) on Thu Jul 31st, 2008 at 06:22:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why is it I don't understand what "If you're out of a job and unemployment insurance or you can't liquidate your portfolio, you may well find yourself at a "faith-based" pantry to collect "means-tested" rations." means, it doesn't leave me with a warm and fuzzy feeling?

McCain/Palin ... total sacks of SHIT!
by THE Twank (paszeski__aaaaaaatttttt__yahoo.com) on Thu Jul 31st, 2008 at 07:05:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Could you provide links to the source of these graphs?  FRB St. Louis?

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (argeezer a in a circle yahoo dot com) on Thu Jul 31st, 2008 at 08:35:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Over the months I've picked off images from a number of blogs as convenient and obviously public domain. Note none of the regional reserve banks are hiding data or analytic research (pdf) of historical interest. In general, FRBNY publishes the most info about developing "primary dealer" accounts and regulatory changes. At US Treasury, FDIC and OCC by far offer the most current, detailed, and interactive tools to observe or compare reserve bank balance sheets.

See research.stlouisfed.org for the series above.

The other I believe may originate from econopicdata.blogspot. Ritholz at TheBigPicture frequently posts Jake's graphs. (The data set above though will have come ultimately from the FRB, federalreserve.gov, Statistics: Releases and Historical Data)


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by MarketTrustee (pbing@estudioinc.com) on Thu Jul 31st, 2008 at 11:52:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's a neat trick to grab best assets. Just get on the top of the creditor list at the last moment... Did it happen before in the covered bonds history on a big scale?

The United States might not be a monarchy, but Wall Street is a prince there, at the very least.

by das monde on Thu Jul 31st, 2008 at 11:33:17 PM EST
Responses For US Citizens:

  1. Google: Paulson, covered bonds and find the July 29 article in the paper of record for your state, and send a letter about this looming looting episode to them.

  2.  Send a letter to your senators and your representative warning them and giving them a heads up.

  3.  A copy of one of my letters: (They have to be brief.)  Get links from Jerome's post if needed.

The July 29, '08 AR Dem/Gazette reported that B of A, City, Morgan, etc were getting behind Sec. Paulson's recommendation of "covered bonds" as a means of recapitalizing banks with toxic balance sheets.  A covered bond is a bond for which the bank must hold AAA assets as colateral.  About the same time the FDIC announced expedited procedures for the release of the assets covering the bond to the bond originator in case of default.  There are lists of over 100 banks in danger of default in circulation.

Consider the following scenario.  B of A approaches a bank on the default list with an offer of a "covered bond" to provide additional capital against which the bank can lend.  The bank rounds up all of its AAA assets, performing mortgages, etc. and uses them to "cover" the bond.  The bank gets the proceeds of the bond.  It is not enough to keep the bank from failing.  It fails due to toxic paper still on its books.  B. of A gets all the AAA assets as surity for its bond.  FDIC gets all of the toxic paper.

Repeat a few times and the FDIC will be coming to the taxpayers for its own bailout.  The "covered bond" originators make out like bandits.  The taxpayer gets shafted.  How is this not government sponsored looting of the financial system?  By the folks who brought us the response to Katrina.

The potential for abuse is obvious and massive.  The only real solution to the "sub-prime" and CDO mess is to write down the losses and clean up the mess.  Don't let a few "covered bond" originators get away with everything of real value.  It is bad enough already.  Don't say you were not given a heads up.  DON'T LET THIS HAPPEN!

Thank you,




If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (argeezer a in a circle yahoo dot com) on Fri Aug 1st, 2008 at 12:10:20 AM EST
Here's a comment of mine to the "Baltimore Sun"


Consider the following scenario.  

Bank X approaches a bank on the default list with an offer of a "covered bond" to provide additional capital against which the bank can lend.  The bank rounds up all of its AAA assets, performing mortgages, etc. and uses them to "cover" the bond.  The bank gets the proceeds of the bond.  

The Bank in trouble will still fail because of all the toxic waste it still has.  Bank X gets all the AAA assets as collateral for its bond.  FDIC gets all of the toxic waste.

Repeat a few times and the FDIC will be coming to the taxpayers for its own bailout.  

Result?

The "covered bond" originators make out like bandits:  the taxpayer gets shafted.

Privatised profits: socialised losses.

No solution based on debt can work: the Capital to support the  amount of credit necessary is not available.

We need a solution based on a new take on investment. ie "Equity" - but not as we know it, Jim" through new forms of generic Real Estate Investment Trusts ("REIT'S")

There is no possible solution based upon debt.

We need instead to reinvent Equity on a fairly cosmic scale, but the money is there to do it.

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Fri Aug 1st, 2008 at 04:24:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From Tom Petruno's blog, Money & Co. in the Saturday, Aug. 3, '08 LA Times
FDIC takes control of Fla. bank, fourth to fail since July 11

7:36 PM, August 1, 2008

We all can start getting used to this: Friday is going to be Bank Failure Day in the U.S.A.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said late today that it took control of First Priority Bank of Bradenton, Fla., marking the eighth bank failure this year -- and the fourth just since July 11, when the feds seized IndyMac Bank of Pasadena.

First Priority had assets of $259 million and deposits of $227 million...

-skip-
SunTrust Banks Inc. of Atlanta agreed to buy First Priority's insured deposits and to take over the bank's six branches. But the uninsured depositors, as in IndyMac's case, will be paid 50% of those balances upfront and then will have to wait to see what the FDIC gets as it liquidates First Priority's assets.

The FDIC prefers to close or sell insolvent banks on Fridays and reopen them on Mondays under government control or under a new owner.

FDIC Chairwoman Sheila Bair has been upfront in preparing the public -- and Congress -- for a surge in bank failures ahead, as real estate loan losses wipe out more lenders' capital.

The FDIC is required by law to resolve bank failures in whatever way costs its insurance fund the least amount of money. That can depend on how much an acquiring bank is willing to pay for all or part of a failed institution.

Now if Sheila Bair would only explain why she is facilitating investment banks' efforts to grab all of the real assets with "covered bonds."  Didn't sound like she was concerned with the FDIC's solvency when she approved "expedited release" of assets pledged to "covered bonds."

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.

by ARGeezer (argeezer a in a circle yahoo dot com) on Sat Aug 2nd, 2008 at 06:22:54 PM EST


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