European Tribune

European Salon de News, Discussion et Klatsch - 22. August

by Fran
Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 03:00:34 PM EST

On this date in history:

1862 - Birth of Claude Debussy, a French composer, whose music virtually defines the transition from late-Romantic music to twentieth century modernist music. (d. 1918)

More here and video


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Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 03:01:55 PM EST
BBC NEWS | Europe | Spain grieves for Madrid victims

Spain is grieving for the 153 victims of Madrid's plane crash, as experts begin to look into why the jet crashed and burnt shortly after take-off.

The country's prime minister has visited some of the 19 survivors, while King Juan Carlos met relatives of the victims at a makeshift mortuary.

Three days of mourning have been declared and flags are at half-mast.

Of the survivors of the Spanair flight JK 5022 crash on Wednesday, several remain critically ill.



Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 03:13:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC NEWS | World | Europe | Shock and anger after Madrid crash

But in stark contrast to the rival theories about who was responsible for the 2004 bombings, this time, a single would-be culprit is emerging - at least in the eyes of the Spanish media.

Spanair and its business troubles are being put under the microscope - from the $81bn losses in the first sixth months of 2008, to the axing of routes, and the proposal to cut up to 1,200 jobs.

Just hours before the crash, Spanair representatives of the pilots' union, Sepla, had issued a statement, denouncing "organisation chaos" at Spain's second biggest carrier.

Threatening strike action, the pilots alleged that company bosses were forcing cockpit and maintenance staff to work abusively long hours, in order to compensate for "endemic problems" of organisation and structure.

Those claims are denied by Spanair executives, together with the suggestion that economic woes were a direct cause of Wednesday's crash.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 09:53:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In El Pais today, (my translation from Spanish)
INTERVIEW: Air Disaster in Madrid - The investigation -  JOSÉ MARÍA VÁZQUEZ President of SEPLA [airline pilots' union] and Spanair pilot

"To attribute the accident to the firm's situation is barbaric"
by LARA OTERO - Madrid - 22/08/2008

José María Vázquez has been at the helm of the pilots' union SEPLA for 9 months and in Spanair for 20. He has seen the company be born and grow. He is critical of the airline's management but defends its actions on maintenance and safety. He was one of the pilots who flew the relatives of the victims from Las Palmas to Madrid on Wednesday night. He can't (and won't) help getting emotional recalling the personal dramas he was told of during that two-hour flight

(My emphasis)

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 05:05:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The pilot aborted a first takeoff attempt because an air intake temperature gauge was detecting overheating. The maintenance staff decided the gauge was faulty and turned it off. This allowed take-off and Spanair claims the temperature gauge is not necessary for flight according to the maintenance standards. The engine then caught fire on takeoff.

Question: is it possible that the gauge was detecting overheating not of the incoming air (incorrect) but of the engine itself, that the maintenance staff failed to notice anything wrong with the engine and so (wrongly) declared the gauge faulty and disabled it?

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 06:50:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I rather imagine the maintenance engineers will face those same questions in a rather more formal and intimidating atmosphere sometime in the next few days.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 07:27:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I rather imagine they've been facing them in the dark of the night for last few days.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 07:31:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How about the guys at MacDonnell-Douglas who wrote the maintenance manual? Are they going to be facing the same questions?

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 07:33:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Initial reports seem to have been misleading. The story now is that the fault was in a heating element designed to prevent ice buildup on the engine turbines. The determination was made that in summer weather the risk of ice buildup was minimal and the plane is able to fly with that element disabled for 10 days according to the maintenance manual. The fault is believed to not be related to the crash. Also, reports that the engine caught fire on takeoff and caused the crash are incorrect according to a video taken by AENA, the airport operator. Instead, the plane passes the point of no return but fails to attain enough lift and crashes, bouncing several times before catching fire. (sources: El Pais, including this editorial demanding an end to wild speculation)

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 03:18:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The story now is ...

They can't possibly know the triggering event at this stage of the investigation, way too early.  

I presume they've collected the 'Black Box' Flight Data Recorder and are doing preliminary analysis of the information.  However, that only gives the data the avionic system was passing around and what the pilot, co-pilot, and flight engineer were seeing/saying.  

Important Point: the FDR does not give the actual state and condition of the mechanics of the airplane but only what the avionics thought their condition was.  That thermometer was doing what a thermometer does: record temperature.  WHAT was causing the temperature rise will not be known until the US NSTB and Spanish authorities reassemble the bits and pieces of the plane and conduct a visual inspection and analysis.  

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Sun Aug 24th, 2008 at 12:57:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC NEWS | Europe | Strasbourg unfit for EU session

The temporary relocation of the European Parliament to Brussels next month from Strasbourg has reignited a row about where it should be based.

An EU official has confirmed to the BBC that the building in the French city cannot be used yet because part of its ceiling has collapsed.

About 200sq m (2,152sq ft) of the ceiling caved in on 7 August. Nobody was in the chamber at the time.

European law obliges the parliament to meet in Strasbourg 12 times a year.



Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 03:14:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Laws can be changed. Brussels/Strasburg made sense in the limited EU of the 70s. Now it's too western-centric. Brussels/Vienna or even Budapest makes more sense.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 05:51:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What is this obsession of the Brits with Strasbourg about? Seriously. Especially as you suggest to continue to use more than one site.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 07:13:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I wasn't aware of a general obsession.

However, whilst I would prefer a single location on grounds of cost and efficiency, I rather imagine that the co-sited HQ is rather traditional now.

Then, if we agree that, in the modern EU, the Brussels/Strasburg axis is too far to the west, then one or the other should be sacrificed for a more eastern location. Brussels has a lot going for it, but it's a crowded and expensive town with little room for expansion. Strasburg is actually better in these aspects, but is hamstrung by not being a transport hub in the way that Brussels is. So, and it is reluctantly, Brussels gets my nod for the western arm.

But, y'know, if you think I'm just trashing your hometown out of anti-French spite, there's little I can do to persuade you otherwise.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 07:25:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
but that of the British media, which come on this story over and over and over and over and over again. Any news about Strasbourg is an opportunity to bitch about the Parliament and more genrally about "wasteful" Europe, etc...

But I do note that you pile on on the topic almost each time it's posted in  a Salon. I know you're trying to bring a note of rationality to what is just stupid blather by the media, but the effect is to reinforce the notion that it is actually a topic with merit.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 07:32:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Again : I had not noticed the tendency in the British media. I am not masochistic enough to keep banging my head on the brick wall that is the FT, the Murdoch or Daily Mail media empires, so remain oblivious of these obsessions.

However, your pardoning is undermined when you note that I "pile on the topic..". Maybe that has a different connotation for you, but I understand it to mean that I press an unfair advantage to give an undeserved kicking. Not quite the same as introducing the "note of sanity", is it ? So you do feel I am demonstrating anti-French bias.

As I said, there's nothing I can do about that, but it's disappointing to say the least.

Would you prefer that I say that the Brussels/Strasburg axis makes excellent sense, that what was true in the 70s remains true now ? When it is so blatantly untrue and the situation is absurd ?

But I can see your so sensitized to the subject that we are unable to discuss it reasonably here, so I'll withdraw.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 08:09:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's anti-Europe.

The French barely bother to defend Strasbourg's role, in general. It's the Germans who are the most attached to Strasbourg.

The constant harping on this topic (like the same harping on a caricatured version of expenses) is just anti-European (waste, bureaucracy, corruption, bla, bla, bla). I don't know that it is anti-French, although it might be that too.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 09:08:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This whole "one site" issue is a huge red herring, on both sides.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 09:09:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There is a general obsession with the "circus". In fact it's one of the issues the Liberals all over Europe (ans particularly Dutch and British ones) have latched on to in order to demonstrate to the voters that they're not uncritically pro-EU. <sigh>

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 07:36:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Come on. There is no reason to have the parliament moving back and forth. In fact it makes no sense what so ever. It's the poster child of the "wasteful EU bureacracy".

Put it in Bruxelles and be done with it. This would make the EU more popular, especially in the Netherlands, UK and Nordic nations.

The real estate in Strasbourg could be used to create an European elite technical university, as is often proposed.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 08:09:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As this has been coded into the treaties, only the Council can change it. The European Parliament mostly agrees two sites is a waste.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 08:13:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The parliament could break the treaty rules and see what happens.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 08:36:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But on the other hand, wouldn't it be even costlier if the locations were farther apart?

Anyway, I'd like to throw in the city of Mariehamn into contention as the home of the EU parliament.

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde

by NordicStorm on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 07:55:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The distance travelled is the least of the cost. There are high speed rail links to vienna, just as there are to Strasburg, and the extra 3 hours is neither here nor there.

Plus, of course, until recently they travelled by plane where the main waste of time was probably spent hanging around in the terminal shopping on expenses.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 08:12:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The truck caravan with all the papers is a PR disaster on wheels.

It doesn't really matter if it exists in the real world or not (does it exist?), as long as it exists in the minds of the public.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 09:12:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
She suggests having the EU institutions divided among more than one city, not having the Parliament have more than one site. The reason this won't work is that the Parliament is in Brussels by its own choice:
The [Espace Léopold] complex is not the official seat of Parliament, which is the Immeuble Louise Weiss in Strasbourg, France, but as most of the other institutions of the European Union are in Brussels, Parliament built the Brussels complex in order to be closer to their activities. A majority of the Parliament's work is now geared to its Brussels site, but it is legally bound to keep Strasbourg as its official home.
As to why the official seat of parliament is not in Brussels,
The city of Strasbourg (France) is the official seat of the European Parliament. The institution is legally bound to meet there twelve sessions a year lasting about four days each, other work takes place in Brussels and Luxembourg city (see Location of European Union institutions for more information).[5][6]


A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 11:03:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
British security services colluded in unlawful detention of terror suspect, court rules | UK news | guardian.co.uk

British security services colluded in the unlawful detention and facilitated the interrogation of a UK resident detained in Pakistan six years ago, the high court ruled today.

Two judges found that the foreign secretary had a duty to hand over to Binyam Mohamed's legal team secret information that could support his case that he was tortured in Pakistan and Morocco before being sent to Guantánamo Bay.

Lord Justice Thomas and Mr Justice Lloyd Jones found that the British security service "facilitated interviews by or on behalf of the United States incommunicado and without access to a lawyer in Pakistan" (pdf) in 2002.

The detention was unlawful under Pakistani law, the judges said.



Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 03:27:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So, now everybody is trying to make like the rule of law is sacrosanct. As the cousins like to say "A day late and a dollar short".

Where were your scruples when this was going on ? When we knew it was happening and scumtrash Straw was denying, denying, denying in the House of Commons ? (Why isn't it illegal to lie in the HoC ?).

No, this does not prove the britain is a country of law, it demonstrates the complete opposite, the use of law for political convenience. One day you can torture and frame and it doesn't matter, then the wind changes and we'd better tidy up the mess so that it looks good to the fools fed on Murdoch and Daily Mail bs about forever middle class england of warm beer and cricket on village greens.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 05:57:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
FT.com / Europe / Brussels - Little sign of Eurozone growth recovery

Economic growth has shown scant sign of returning to the eurozone in August with private sector output contracting for the third consecutive month, an influential survey revealed on Thursday.

Purchasing managers' indices suggested the 15-country zone remained on the brink of recession, with the performances of Germany and France deteriorating noticeably in August. However, improvements in Spain and Italy led to a modest improvement in the region's composite index, covering industry and services, from 47.8 in July to 48 this month.



Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 03:36:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
End of the Prague Spring: Western Spies Were Out in the Cold - International - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News

Forty years ago this Thursday, the Soviet Union ended the so-called Prague Spring with a massive invasion of troops and tanks. Intelligence files from that era show that the largest military operation in Europe since 1945 took the West by surprise.

When it was over, Western officers, awkwardly, seemed surprised. Against their will they had to admit the camouflage hiding the march of Warsaw Pact troops into Prague had been "good," and the speed of their divisions "impressive." The way the Kremlin led units out of the western part of the Soviet Union "unnoticed" was also noteworthy. The enemy, in short, had scored a "tactical victory."

The museum of Communism in Prague had some interesting displays on this topic.

Ad astra per aspera

by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 03:51:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
EU to pay Palestinian authority wages - EUobserver

The European Union has announced it will boost its financial aid to the Palestinian Authority by €40 million in a bid to secure salaries for government workers.

"This extra package is a clear indication that we are continuing and reinforcing our commitment to the Palestinian people," EU's external affairs commissioner Benita Ferrero Waldner said in a statement on Wednesday (20 August).

EU has decided to add extra €40 million on its aid cheque for Palestinians

The financial injection comes on top of €256 million provided so far by the EU this year by other instruments. It follows an international conference last December where various donors pledged €5.2 billion in aid to the Palestinians over three years.

But most of the package was earmarked for long-term projects while many Arab donors have not met their commitments, leaving the Palestinian government struggling to pay public employees over recent months.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 03:55:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What leads the EU to lift its economic embargo of the PA 2 years later?

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 04:24:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There's an election in the US, so they've forgotten to put the frighteners on the EU for a couple of months

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 06:00:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
elarus frees final prisoners in EU sanctions bid - EUobserver

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - Belarus on Wednesday (20 August) pardoned two more dissidents, Syarhei Parsyukevich and Andrei Kim, clearing its jails of major political prisoners in a bid to improve relations with the EU.

Mr Parsyukevich and Mr Kim had been serving two-and-a-half and one-and-a-half year sentences, respectively, after taking part in street protests in January.

Street protests in Minsk are a risky business

Their release comes just two days after Minsk freed opposition leader Alexander Kazulin, with no more long-term prisoners of conscience now left behind bars, despite some concern over a US lawyer, Emanuel Zeltser, arrested in March.

The latest move comes as Belarus heads toward parliamentary elections on 28 September, in which a handful of pro-democracy opposition figures are expected to gain seats in the legislature for the first time.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 03:58:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why should Belarus care what the EU thinks ?

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 06:01:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They're not even in the Council of Europe, and that's saying something.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 06:10:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Grey's Anatomy, ER draw objections in Italy | Entertainment | Reuters

By Eric J. Lyman

ROME (Hollywood Reporter) - Television programs with medical and hospital themes get so many details wrong, according to a leading Italian medical group, that Italy's main broadcasters should refrain from airing them.

Annalisa Silvestro, president of the National Federation of Medical Colleges, said that offending programs include imported fare such as "ER," "House," "Grey's Anatomy" and "Scrubs," along with a host of Italian-made productions, several of which are scheduled to premiere with state broadcaster RAI or Silvio Berlusconi's Mediaset when new schedules start in September.



Peace is not the absence of war -- peace is the absence of fear. Ursula Franklin
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 05:06:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A deeper shade of blue
Tories are now drawing on a radical conservative past that foretold flaws in Thatcher's market dogma

When economic paradigms shift, ideology follows. Just as the Keynesian model broke down in the 1970s and ushered in the rise of Thatcherism, so the present crisis of neoliberal economics is precipitating a philosophical change in the Conservative party. The Tories are now speaking of sharing the benefits of growth and wealth, and the need for markets to generate fair outcomes. Moreover, they are distancing themselves from the current socioeconomic settlement because they recognise that it produces inequality and reinforces class barriers. They know that the community culture they want to resurrect was not only destroyed by the socialist state, but by the capitalist market. Say it softly, but the Tories could be poised to finally break with Thatcherism and its winner-takes-all monopoly capitalism.

(...)

 the much-derided new civic philosophy of conservatism is actually key to reversing all the malign consequences of the Thatcher-Blair years. A genuinely local economy requires not just freedom from the target-driven, ethos-destroying logic of the state, but also liberation from the corporate business model. Corporate norms have obliterated owner-occupiers of small businesses and have created clone towns where every high street is the same, or ghost towns where the economies of scale kill off local enterprises. A revived localism inspires a diverse ecology of agriculture, industry and innovation, and a renewed sense of regional identity, reversing an economic monoculture predicated on finance and the City.

There are signs, therefore, that this localism is becoming the fulcrum around which conservatism could change. One example is Cameron's frustration at Policy Exchange's recent report that, in a disturbing echo of the rightwing "mobility of labour" argument, called for the abandonment of northern cities for the job-rich south. Likewise, the Conservative campaign against post office closures and the "disappearing Britain" campaign to save local shops all suggest a new distaste for the homogenising consequences of neoliberalism.

Interesting - and worrying for the left. Should I front page this tomorrow?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 07:06:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Should I front page this tomorrow?"

Gets my vote.  There was a time when Tories held that there were things that needed to be conserved.  Could they add provincial economies, towns, industries, jobs, homes and families to Queen and Church they might establish the basis for a renewal of Labor.

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.

by ARGeezer (argeezer a in a circle yahoo dot com) on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 09:23:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Certainly worth front paging.

The main worry is that they'll claim these are Tory innovations, but personally I don't care how they're tagged as long as there's some move away from corporate piracy towards a more manageable culture.

If this were honest - which it probably isn't - it would be the biggest philosophical shift in UK politics since the end of the 70s.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 09:48:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
McCain runs ads here in California that paint him as a liberal (valiantly taking on corporate greed!), so yeah, a bit skeptical over here.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 12:28:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We've had neo-Conservatism and neo-Liberalism so why not give neo-Syndicalism a shot?

Front page by all means.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 01:48:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Worrying for the what?
You appear to be using a word that has no present meaning in the English language.

"The womb that spawned that thing is fertile yet"
by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 04:43:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, that was a very interesting essay. I wanted to do some background as the ideas looked worth exploring, even if they come from a different political perspective than mine. At least they weren't transparently rubbish.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 06:03:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Fear not...

FT.com: London's calling (August 21 2008)

As a global city and leading international financial centre, London is at the heart of Britain's economic success. So the victory of the Conservative candidate in the capital's mayoral election in May was widely seen as an augury of success for the UK opposition at the next general election. However, Boris Johnson's first few weeks in City Hall have raised disturbing questions about the fitness of the Tories for office.


A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 06:44:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And that's in the FT?

They're not wrong. But do they think anyone is fit to lead?

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 12:57:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
http://www.antiwar.com/rep/laughland18.html

In the past, these methods have led to appalling exaggerations of the numbers of people killed in conflict. In the Kosovo war of 1999, Human Rights Watch stated categorically that the number of people killed unlawfully by the Serbs was "certainly" more than 4,300. This was the number of bodies which had by then been exhumed. Moreover, Human Rights Watch claimed to have itself documented 3,453 killings, based on interviews. But the legal indictment against Slobodan Milosevic, the former president of Yugoslavia, refers to 564 killed, not thousands.
...Some of the evidence is clearly unreliable. One report quotes a man saying, "They blindfolded us ... and then they put us in Landcruisers with shaded windows." But how could he know the make of the car, or the colour of the windows, if he was blindfolded? The same man claims to have escaped alive from a mass grave, a story I have heard too many times in Kosovo to find easy to believe.

Another exposure of NGOs...this time HRW...and guess who is among those on the Board of HRW? Kati Marton, wife of Richard Holbrooke. Lol!
by vbo on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 09:31:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2008/08/georgia-quotes.html?cid=127357502#comment-127357502

A poster in a thread several below wondered about Human Rights Watch and their pronouncements on the conflict. I believe HRW speculated that there were something like fifty dead in Tshinvali. Today they are talking about unexploded cluster bombs in Gori.
by vbo on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 09:35:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
FT.com / World - Sterling tumbles as UK economy grinds to a halt
Sterling tumbled on Friday as official figures showed UK economic growth ground to a halt in the second quarter of this year, strengthening fears the economy is already contracting.

The Office for National Statistics revised its first estimate of second quarter growth by more than expected as it said output had been flat quarter on quarter, the lowest figure since the second quarter of 1992.

Gross domestic product was 1.4 per cent higher than in the second quarter of 2007, the lowest year-on-year growth rate since the end of 1992.



"Ne te courbe que pour aimer..." René Char
by Melanchthon on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 08:01:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
FT.com / World - UK fuel suppliers raise bills by 20%
The pressure on household finances increased on Thursday when Scottish and Southern Energy and Eon became the latest energy suppliers to raise bills, by averages of 25 per cent and 22 per cent respectively, following steep rises in wholesale gas and electricity prices.

The moves follow similar increases from EDF Energy and Centrica, owner of British Gas, late last month and will contribute to a further increase in the rate of inflation, which is expected by many economists to hit 5 per cent by the end of the year.

Consumer groups said the rises would push more people into fuel poverty. A household buying its gas and electricity from SSE will now pay an average of £105 a month, up from £73 a month at the beginning of the year - a 44 per cent increase.



"Ne te courbe que pour aimer..." René Char
by Melanchthon on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 08:34:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
FT.com / World - Investors quit Russia after Georgia war
Investors pulled their money out of Russia in the wake of the Georgia conflict at the fastest rate since the 1998 rouble crisis, new figures showed on Thursday.

Russian debt and equity markets have also suffered sharp falls since the conflict began on August 8, with yields on domestic rouble bonds increasing by up to 150 basis points in the last month.

The moves come as President Dmitry Medvedev faces pressure from business leaders concerned that the impact of the global credit crisis is starting to be felt in Russia.

Credit conditions are to be discussed at next month's "summit of oligarchs", the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs meeting that former President Vladimir Putin held annually to discuss economic issues.



"Ne te courbe que pour aimer..." René Char
by Melanchthon on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 08:04:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
FT.com / World - Police investigate lost prisoner data
Police officers were on Friday morning beginning an investigation into how and why a data stick containing confidential data on up to 130,000 offenders and prisoners was lost earlier this week.

The Conservatives warned that taxpayers could foot a large compensation bill if any of the thousands of criminals affected by the blunder decided to sue the government.

The loss was a "massive failure of duty", said Dominic Gieve, shadow home secretary. "The British taxpayer will be absolutely outraged if they are made to pick up the bill for compensation to serious criminals," he said.

The names, addresses and expected release dates of all 84,000 prisoners in England and Wales were on the computer memory stick lost by PA Consulting, a contractor working for the Home Office.



"Ne te courbe que pour aimer..." René Char
by Melanchthon on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 08:05:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Areva reactor project given all-clear

Areva's troublesome EPR reactor project in Finland on Wednesday received a clean bill of health after welding work overseen by Bouygues, the French nuclear group's subcontractor, was last week called into question.

Petteri Tiippana, assistant director of STUK, the Finnish nuclear safety authority, said that a government-commissioned inquiry into quality and safety allegations made by the environmental lobby group Greenpeace had found no evidence of transgressions.



Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 08:12:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
FT.com / World - UK sees drop in Europeans seeking work
The number of eastern and central Europeans registering to work in the UK has fallen to the lowest level since their countries joined the European Union four years ago, according to Home Office figures published on Thursday.

The fall in the value of the pound and improved job prospects in their home countries appears to be reducing the appeal of the UK to migrant workers from the so-called A8 accession countries - the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.

The number of A8 migrants registering to work in the UK fell by more than 27 per cent to just under 38,000 in the second quarter of this year, compared with the same period last year. It was the biggest year-on-year fall since the UK opened its borders to the new EU members.

More than 875,000 eastern and central Europeans, two-thirds of them from Poland, have registered to work in the UK since May 2004.



"Ne te courbe que pour aimer..." René Char
by Melanchthon on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 08:16:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
q.v. 'British economic success', as quoted in the FT.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 12:59:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
WORLD

Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 03:02:44 PM EST
Russia stops co-operation with Nato allies - World Politics, World - The Independent

Russia told Nato today that it had suspended military cooperation activities with alliance countries until further notice, the Western military pact said.

"Russia has informed us through military channels that the minister of defence of the Russian Federation has taken a decision to halt international military cooperation events between Russia and Nato countries ... until further instructions," Nato spokeswoman Carmen Romero said.

Nato members Norway, Estonia and Latvia have already said they had received notice of the step, which emerged after the alliance agreed this week that normal ties with Moscow were not possible until it had withdrawn troops from Georgia in line with efforts to end the South Ossetia conflict.



Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 03:06:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC NEWS | Special Reports | Russians halt Nato co-operation

Russia has told Nato that it is halting military co-operation over the continuing crisis in Georgia, an alliance spokeswoman has said.

The move follows a statement by Nato that there would be no "business as usual" with Russia unless its troops pulled out of Georgia.

However, the alliance had stopped short of freezing co-operation with Moscow.

Meanwhile, Georgia's breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia have held mass rallies calling for independence.



Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 03:15:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
U.S. sees much to fear in a hostile Russia - International Herald Tribune
The president of Syria spent two days in Russia this week with a shopping list of sophisticated weapons he wanted to buy. The visit may prove a harbinger of things to come.

If the conflict in Georgia ushers in a sustained period of renewed animosity between Russia and the West, Washington fears that a newly emboldened but estranged Moscow could use its influence, money, energy resources, United Nations Security Council veto and, yes, its arms industry to undermine American interests around the world.

The list of ways a more hostile Russia could cause problems for the United States extends far beyond Syria and the mountains of Georgia. In addition to increased arms sales to other anti-American states like Iran and Venezuela, policymakers and specialists here envision a freeze in cooperation on counterterrorism and nuclear nonproliferation, manipulation of oil and natural gas supplies, pressure against U.S. military bases in Central Asia and the collapse of efforts to extend Cold War-era arms-control treaties.

"It's Iran, it's the UN," said Angela Stent, who served as the top Russia officer at the U.S. government's National Intelligence Council until 2006 and now directs Russian studies at Georgetown University. "It's all the counterterrorism and counternarcotics programs, Syria, Venezuela, Hamas - there are any number of issues over which they can be less cooperative than they've been. And of course, energy."



"Ne te courbe que pour aimer..." René Char
by Melanchthon on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 08:40:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC NEWS | South Asia | Pakistan bombers hit arms factory

At least 63 people have been killed and dozens injured in twin suicide bombings outside Pakistan's main munitions factory in the town of Wah, police say.

The attack is the deadliest on a military site in Pakistan's history.

Police say one man is in custody for the attack, which occurred some 30km (18 miles) north-west of Islamabad.

A spokesman for the Pakistani Taleban said they had carried out the attacks, which he said were a response to army violence in the country's north-west.

Speaking to the BBC, Maulvi Umar of the Tehrik-e-Taleban Pakistan said the bombings in Wah were in retaliation for the deaths of "innocent women and children" in the tribal area of Bajaur.

He said more attacks would take place in Pakistan's major urban conurbations unless the army withdrew from the tribal areas.



Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 03:08:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That the Taleban are able to range so freely suggests they have assistance from their allies in the pakistani secret services (ISI) who are still working to an agenda quite different from that of the government or the population.

It would help enormously if Pakistan were able to determine its strategic goals and get all branches of the govt to work towards them, cos right now they're all working against each other.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 06:16:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wah is right next to the "Nort West Frontier Province" whish is rugged terrain and the home turf of the Taliban. There is no need to assume the ISI let it happen on purpose.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 06:22:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
not the ISI as an organisation, but there is within the ISI a group of people who regard the Taleban as their plausibly-deniable military wing and are willing to provide them cover and covert support on a quid pro quo basis.

ISI regard control of Afghanistan and Kashmir as legitimate Pakistani foreign policy objectives and the use of the Taleban to sow discord in such regions is a long standing policy going back 25 years. As an example of the priorities, remember the recent "War on Terra" grants from the US were spent on upgrading F-16s that have only ever been used in Kashmir, never against the Taleban.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 08:20:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC NEWS | Africa | Scores killed in Somali clashes

At least 50 people have reportedly been killed in clashes in the Somali capital Mogadishu and the port of Kismayo.

Some 30 people have been killed in two days of fierce fighting between Islamists and a clan militia in Kismayo, a BBC reporter says.

Some mortars landed near the compound of President Abdullahi Yusuf, who is currently out of the country.

Another landed near a mosque in the busy Bakara market, killing at least six people, a witness told the BBC.



Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 03:19:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

FDIC to modify IndyMac loans
The agency plans to cut interest rates and extend payments for some in hopes of limiting foreclosures.
By E. Scott Reckard, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
August 21, 2008
The regulators operating failed IndyMac Bank said Wednesday that they would try to modify about 25,000 troubled mortgages by slashing interest rates to as low as 3% for five years, extending payments over 40 years and in some cases charging interest on only part of the loan balance.

The plan, aimed at about 37% of IndyMac's seriously delinquent borrowers, is the start of a modification program that eventually could involve thousands of other borrowers at the savings and loan. Sheila Bair, chairwoman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., said she hoped it would become a model for the reeling mortgage industry.

-Skip-

Soon after it took over IndyMac, the FDIC said it was freezing foreclosures on the almost 40,000 loans still owned by the thrift. Those loans amount to 6% of the 637,000 existing IndyMac-serviced mortgages at the end of July. The FDIC also has broad powers to change the terms of 225,000 loans that were pooled to back debt securities under the IndyMac name.

But the remaining 372,000 mortgages serviced by IndyMac, nearly 60%, can't be modified easily because of complications in the terms under which they were sold to investors or bought or guaranteed by mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

-Skip-

The borrowers, most of whom initially stated their incomes without proof, must fully document their earnings to obtain modified loans and sign a statement pledging to live in the home. They must have enough income to devote no more than 38% of their gross earnings toward principal and interest on a modified first mortgage, along with home insurance and taxes.

The fact that many borrowers took on hefty second mortgages and have credit card, automobile and other debts will also complicate the picture, FDIC officials said.

But the most difficult pill for borrowers to swallow may be the large majority who won't qualify for the program because IndyMac doesn't own all the loans it services. The FDIC will try to help those borrowers when they get in trouble on their loans despite not being able to use its standard model to modify them, Bair said.

-Skip-

To achieve the 38% debt-to-income ratio, the FDIC may extend the loan term to 40 years and reduce the interest rate -- now typically 7.51% on IndyMac-owned loans -- to as low as 3%. After five years, the rate would rise by 1 percentage point a year until it reached the current Freddie Mac survey rate for conforming mortgages, now about 6.5%, where it would be permanently capped.

The FDIC also may suspend interest on a portion of the loan amount, although the principal not earning interest will still have to be paid off if the home is sold or the loan is refinanced. Michael Krimminger, a policy advisor to Bair, said that option had limited use because it tended to substantially reduce the value of loans.

This is the first action I have seen by Federal agencies that seems to move in the right direction, i.e., recognizing that the loans are worth only a fraction of their face value.

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.

by ARGeezer (argeezer a in a circle yahoo dot com) on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 03:25:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bloomberg.com: Worldwide
Nobel laureate Daniel McFadden, who teaches at the University of California, said in Landau that a financial equivalent of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration should be established to monitor and certify new financial instruments.


"Ne te courbe que pour aimer..." René Char
by Melanchthon on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 05:14:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In the beginning of this century financial instruments have destroyed a lot more people than poisonous patent medicines ever did at the start of the last century.

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (argeezer a in a circle yahoo dot com) on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 09:07:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, but weren't the US food and drink regulatory bodies starved of funds to the point where they couldn't even check on abattooirs regarding CJD, leading ot the problems reported earlier this year.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 06:20:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Correct.  Protections put into place by the Progressives and Theodore Roosevelt have been greatly undercut, especially during the first six years of GWB.

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (argeezer a in a circle yahoo dot com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 11:40:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bloomberg.com: Worldwide
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two largest mortgage finance companies, ``don't have any net worth,'' billionaire investor Warren Buffett said.

"The game is over" as independent companies said Buffett, the 77-year-old chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., in an interview on CNBC today. ``They were able to borrow without any of the normal restraints. They had a blank check from the federal government.''



"Ne te courbe que pour aimer..." René Char
by Melanchthon on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 08:55:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Listening to Buffet is always worthwhile.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 09:09:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bloomberg.com: Worldwide
Secretary Henry Paulson's response to the sinking fortunes of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac might boil down to picking which investors get hurt and by how much.

At stake if Paulson does intervene: the fate of worldwide bondholders of $5.2 trillion of agency and mortgage-backed debt and scores of large banks, insurers and pension funds that own the firms' common and preferred shares.

Paulson's choices probably include buying Fannie's and Freddie's bonds, a special class of preferred shares or preferred shares convertible into common stock, analysts and investors said. The terms and conditions of any purchases would put the government ahead of other creditors and stockholders, while ensuring that bondholders are protected, they said.

"The presumption" is that holders of the government- chartered companies' subordinated bonds ``will be covered,'' McCulley said in an interview on Bloomberg Television from Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Common shareholders would be wiped out, he predicted.



"Ne te courbe que pour aimer..." René Char
by Melanchthon on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 08:59:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No deal reached over future of US troops in Iraq | World news | guardian.co.uk

US negotiators have not yet succeeded in getting Iraqi officials to agree to keep US troops well into the next US president's first term, the US secretary of state confirmed yesterday.

On a surprise visit to Baghdad, Condoleezza Rice, denied earlier reports this week that the two sides had ironed out the last disputes in a heavily-contested draft agreement that is due to replace the UN mandate covering the US occupation.

President Bush wants the pact to authorise a troop presence at least until 2011 so that he can trumpet it as proof of his policy's success. But the Iraqi prime minister, Nouri al Maliki, has adopted the rising nationalism in the Iraqi parliament and public and is insisting on a clear withdrawal timetable, the lifting of judicial immunity for US troops who commit abuses, and an Iraqi veto on US military operations, including the arrest of Iraqis.



Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 03:29:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
FT.com / Markets - Oil surges above $120 as tensions rise

Oil roared above the $120 a barrel level on Thursday and gold prices jumped amid mounting geopolitical tensions following Russia's decision to suspend military co-operation activities with Nato in response to a missile shield agreement between the US and Poland.

Nymex October West Texas Intermediate touched a session high of $122.04 before easing back to trade $5.89 higher at $121.45 a barrel while ICE October Brent rose $6 to $120.36 a barrel.

Moscow said it would respond with more than a diplomatic protest to a deal to place part of a US missile defence system in Poland. It also made it clear that it has no intention of bowing to calls for a withdrawal to positions held before the invasion of Georgia.



Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 03:33:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Clusterfuck Nation by Jim Kunstler
     It's one thing that US foreign policy wonks imagined that Russia would remain in a coma forever, but the idea that we could encircle Russia strategically with defensible bases in landlocked mountainous countries halfway around the world...? You have to ask what were they smoking over at the Pentagon and the CIA and the NSC?
      So, this asinine policy has now come to grief. Not only does Russia stand to gain control over the Baku-to-Ceyhan pipeline, but we now have every indication that they will bring the states on its southern flank back into an active sphere of influence, and there is really not a damn thing that the US can pretend to do about it.
     We could have spent the past ten years getting our own house in order -- waking up to the obsolescence of our suburban life-style, scaling back on the Happy Motoring, reconnecting our cities with world-class passenger rail, creating wealth by producing things of value (instead of resorting to financial racketeering), protecting our borders, and taking the necessary measures to defend and update our own industries. Instead, we pissed our time and resources away. Nations do make tragic errors of the collective will. The cluelessness of George Bush is nothing less than a perfect metaphor for the failure of a whole generation.

...

This must be an equally sobering moment for Europe, and an additional reason for the recent plunge in the relative value of the Euro, for Europe is now at the mercy of Russia in terms of staying warm in the winter, running their kitchen stoves, and keeping the lights on. Russia also exerts substantial financial leverage over the US in all the dollars and securitized US debt paper it holds. In effect, Russia can shake the US banking system at will now by threatening to dump its dollar holdings.
     The American banking system may not need a shove from Russia to fall on its face. It's effectively dead now, just lurching around zombie-like from one loan "window" to the next pretending to "borrow" capital -- while handing over shreds of its moldy clothing as "collateral" to the Federal Reserve.



Peace is not the absence of war -- peace is the absence of fear. Ursula Franklin
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 05:09:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

for Europe is now at the mercy of Russia in terms of staying warm in the winter, running their kitchen stoves, and keeping the lights on.

No it's not.

That's been repeated so many times that everybody believes it to be true. But it's not.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 06:41:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My reaction too. It was a pointless thing to say within an essay about US foreign policy.

So I can only assume it's a cultural tendency to say "yes things are bad, but poor Old Europe is worse". As if it somehow excuses anything they're doing wrong.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 06:27:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Jerome a Paris: That's been repeated so many times that everybody believes it to be true. But it's not.

Dear Professor Krugman,

I am a huge fan, but regarding a statement you made in a recent column, "The Great Illusion" --

After all, Russia has already used gas as a weapon: in 2006, it cut off supplies to Ukraine amid a dispute over prices.

-- please see "Don't Blame Gazprom for Europe's Energy Crunch" by Jérôme Guillet of the European Tribune.

Best regards,
...



Cynicism is intellectual treason.
by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 09:47:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think Prof Krugman might be bemused to receive your email as the article was writeen by Jim Kunstler.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 10:40:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You might want to follow the link to "The Great Illusion"...

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 10:48:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
well, what is the truth?

i know some gas comes from n. africa, but why are all these pundits so uninformed?

even after years here, i thought it was true, at least mostly.

leave aside the 'weapon' stuff, i don't buy that, they need the money...

Peace is not the absence of war -- peace is the absence of fear. Ursula Franklin

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 09:56:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think Jerome's view is most clearly stated in A pipeline is like a marriage with kids (December 16th, 2005)
Thus Ukraine has never paid for the gas it needs to import from Russia, as it can simply tap the transit gas. That happened in 1992 and 1992, when Russia tries to cut them off and Ukraine reduced transit by the same volume. Since then, both countries have agreed to "swap" transit rights for free deliveries, which is actually a pretty cheap price for Russia to pay to protect exports which make 25% of its hard currency earnings, and, some years, the same proportion of its federal tax income.

Today's noise is an attempt to try to scare off the Europeans again into putting pressure on the Ukrainians to behave, but it stands exactly zero chance of success, because Russia will never cut its gas deliveries to the West. Its credibility as a supplier is too vital an asset for it to endanger it.

That situation shows the interesting thing about pipelines - they create lasting dependencies that force countries to talk and find peaceful agreements, because otherwise both get hurt economically. Pipelines are pretty much like kids in a marriage - they tie you for a long time, force you to talk - but in this case, they cannot even be hurt...

(my emphasis)

Marco might want to direct Krugman to that post, too.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 10:03:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
thanks migeru

that's exactly what i needed to read and understand.

Peace is not the absence of war -- peace is the absence of fear. Ursula Franklin

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sat Aug 23rd, 2008 at 05:58:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
At the moment West Texas is booming due to oil.  Everyone there is keenly aware of how transient the last boom proved to be.  The locals are trying to use the benefits to put their lives in order.  A popular bumper sticker in Midland-Odessa reads: Oh Lord, please let there be another boom.  I promise not to piss it away this time!"

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (argeezer a in a circle yahoo dot com) on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 09:32:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A second major contributor to the West Texas Waltz (brilliantly written by songwriter Butch Hancock, and performed by Joe Ely), or perhaps the main component of the boom, is the several billion dollar/year input from the wind industry. Texas, meaning West Texas, now has 5,600 MWs installed, with another 3,100 plus under construction.  That's easily $5B this year alone.



Skennah Kowa

by Crazy Horse on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 05:30:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oil speculators held great sway over prices, data suggest

At one point in July, a Swiss trading firm is believed to have held 11% of futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange for profit rather than for lining up fuel supplies.

By David Cho, The Washington Post      August 21, 2008

WASHINGTON -- Regulators had long classified a private Swiss energy conglomerate called Vitol as a trader that primarily helped industrial firms that needed oil to run their businesses.

But when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission examined Vitol's books last month, it found that the firm was in fact more of a speculator, holding oil contracts as a profit-making investment rather than a means of lining up the actual delivery of fuel. Even more surprising was the massive size of Vitol's portfolio -- at one point in July, the firm held 11% of all the oil contracts on the regulated New York Mercantile Exchange.

The discovery revealed how an individual financial player had gained enormous sway over the oil market without the knowledge of regulators. Other CFTC data showed that a significant amount of trading activity was concentrated in the hands of just a few speculators.

The CFTC, which learned about the nature of Vitol's activities only after making an unusual request for data from the firm, now reports that financial firms speculating for their clients or for themselves account for about 81% of the oil contracts on the Nymex.

Some lawmakers have blamed those firms for the volatility of oil prices, including the tremendous run-up that peaked earlier in the summer.

-Skip-

CFTC documents show Vitol was one of the most active traders of oil on the Nymex as prices reached record levels. By June 6, for instance, Vitol had acquired a huge holding in oil contracts, betting prices wou