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Tuesday Open Thread

by Jerome a Paris
Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 09:37:02 AM EST

If you don't have Georgia on your mind

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Tuesday Open Thread | 108 comments (108 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (none / 1)

Okay, assuming the georgia thing is now down and dusted, I want to return to a previous thing that has been bugging me terribly for the last few days.

How come John McCain is still polling about 40% ? Actually, how come he's still polling about 14% ?

they guy's a joke as a candidate, doesn't know what he's saying from one of a sentence to the other. doesn't know anything aobut the world, energy or economics. His total grasp of military ideas is simply to bomb the shit out of anything that's not american.

I genuinely thought the deal was that America would not vote for an idiot this time round. That's the deal. How come they're going back on it ?

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 09:46:28 AM EST

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (none / 1)

Don't forget which country we are writing about.

"C'est un scandale !"

by redstar on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 09:47:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Racism and the Race (4.00 / 2)

I genuinely thought the deal was that America would not vote for an idiot this time round. That's the deal. How come they're going back on it ?

Sadly, I believe the answer to your question can be found in this column:

According to a July New York Times/CBS News poll, when whites were asked whether they would be willing to vote for a black candidate, 5 percent confessed that they would not. That's not so bad, right? But wait. The pollsters then rephrased the question to get a more accurate portrait of the sentiment. They asked the same whites if most of the people they knew would vote for a black candidate. Nineteen percent said that those they knew would not. Depending on how many people they know and how well they know them, this universe of voters could be substantial. That's bad.
<...>
If the percentage of white voters who cannot bring themselves to vote for a black candidate were only 15 percent, that would be more than all black voters combined. (Coincidentally, it also would be more than all voters under 24 years old.) That amounts to a racial advantage for John McCain.
<...>
Also, remember that during the Democratic primaries, up to 20 percent of white voters in some states said that the race of the candidate was important to them. Few of those people voted for the black guy.

Cynicism is intellectual treason.

by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 10:15:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Racism and the Race (none / 1)

I thought that only applied in the Appalchians, and I think Drew has a view on even how true that is.

Obama scored well among all demographics in the rest of the US. White blue collar males were only an issue in Deliverance country.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 10:26:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Racism and the Race (none / 0)

Drew or someone else has probably deconstructed this poll (if so, please point me to it):

Poll Finds Obama Isn't Closing Divide on Race - NYTimes.com

The nationwide telephone poll was conducted July 7-14 with 1,796 adults, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. In an effort to measure views of different races, the survey included larger-than-usual minority samples -- 297 blacks and 246 Hispanics -- with a margin of sampling error of six percentage points for each subgroup.
<...>
There was even racial dissension over Mr. Obama's wife, Michelle: She was viewed favorably by 58 percent of black voters, compared with 24 percent of white voters.
Among black voters, who are overwhelmingly Democrats, Mr. Obama draws support from 89 percent, compared with 2 percent for Mr. McCain. Among whites, Mr. Obama has 37 percent of the vote, compared with 46 percent for Mr. McCain.

Cynicism is intellectual treason.

by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 10:36:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Racism and the Race (4.00 / 2)

Too lazy to point to the deconstructions that came out with the article, but one thing that struck me: He's a fricking democrat. Unless you're clueless about US voting patterns, or named Mark Penn (but I repeat myself), you know that Dems do worse among whites than Republicans. I believe the last time a Dem won a majority of the white vote was in 1964, and that came in a twenty point blowout. If we lose the white vote by seven points, we've won.

by MarekNYC on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 11:23:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Racism and the Race (4.00 / 2)

Ya know, if you go around spouting this reality-based kinda stuff you will, eventually, be labeled "Un-Serious."

One of McCain's (and the GOPers in general) message-points is the hysterical cry, "OMFG! Teh Negros Are Coming!!! Teh Negros Are Coming!!!"

One undercurrent in Democratic politics is a boner for the New Deal -- when white working class voters were a solid Democratic group.

Together they result in exactly the type of nonsense you're talking about.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 11:44:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Racism and the Race (4.00 / 2)

Actually, if you discount the old 'solid south' the Dems aren't doing so badly. Yes, worse than in the blowout FDR victories, but guess what - the Republicans are doing worse than in '72 and '84. In return we got large numbers of black voters, plus large majorities among the rest of the (growing) non-white vote. And of course we do very well among non-Christian whites (though Bush won hands down with Muslims in 2000 - good social conservative, and clearly far less hawkish on the ME than Gore - heh).

by MarekNYC on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 11:57:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Racism and the Race (4.00 / 2)

The Conservative and "Southern Strategy" of the GOP started with Goldwater, achieved success with RayGuns, and has been the ruling coalition since. The country has been ruled Center-Right, or Right, for 27 years. The pundits, political operatives, and pollsters accept this as 'normal' and the conditions of this rule are considered 'The Way to Success.'

As things change ... things change. (Duh) ;-)

Setting aside Bush's massive foul-ups, demographics (and distaste and ... boredom?) provide the opportunity for a new ruling coalition to arise. Naturally, those whose minds are firmly stuck in the old environment will discount or ignore these factors.

Going back to '00 and '04 ...

If Gore had gotten Kerry's vote total he would have won by 9,000,000 votes and we wouldn't be having this discussion.

If Rove hadn't succeeded in patching together the ruling coalition, one more time, Kerry would be president and we wouldn't be having this conversation.

In '06 we may have seen The Point at which historians will look at for the collapse of the Goldwater-Bush era. This election may provide that point. Or it could be in the future. But it IS coming and I think the break was the Congressional elections of '06 and will be confirmed by Obama winning in '08.

But just as the New Deal dragged into the Goldwater-Bush years they will drag on into the next era.

White voters will be the largest voting block in the US for decades, if not centuries, to come. It will be necessary to capture a plurality of these voters to win elections. The margin-of-victory, tho', will be the 'minority-majority.' The GOP, in its current incarnation, can't appeal to these groups.

The single biggest danger, as I see it, to a Center or Center-Left realignment are the Blue-Dog Democrats who are an active part of the current ruling block.

Oddly, the actions needed: health care reform, concentration on domestic issues, re-investment in cities, infrastructure, and the US generally, are exactly the kinds of governmental programs that would most benefit the white working class as well as Latinos and AAs.

And it's the Blue Dogs who stand in the way.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 12:47:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

shoot the Bush Dogs (4.00 / 2)

Absolutely !!

But I'm sure I saw something on dKos recently that many Blue Dogs aren't even being primaried. That is just so wrong. You might understand if Blue dogs represented raw meat Red constituencies, but most of them don't.

Incomprehensible

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 12:57:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: shoot the Bush Dogs (4.00 / 2)

Nature of Go-Along/Get-Along politics. How many New Labourites are being challenged in their districts? (If that's what they're called Over There.)

Remember the way the Powers-that-Be came riding to the rescue of (asshole) Lieberman. Even when we primaried and beat the son-of-a-bitch it was to no avail.

Realignment is a long, slow business. Many, many people have to make the decision to get into politics at the local level, win locally, and then start moving against the asshats. These people have to join together to pressure their Congresscritters from the inside AND they have to have enough clout to force 'em to listen.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 01:11:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: shoot the Bush Dogs (none / 0)

How many New Labourites are being challenged in their districts?

It's a comletely different process. Tis easier for a rich man to get through the eye of a needle than it is for somebody without "connections" to become a Labour MP. Among the reasons I left the Labour party was disenchantment with the waste of committed talent in favour of mediocre get-alongs as they just couldn't get through the log-jam of favours and vested interests.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 01:45:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: shoot the Bush Dogs (none / 0)

Well, yeah. That's how it works in the US as well. It's fairly easy to become a low-level grunt: precinct manager, even county chair. There's a real battle to rise higher. Those that Is want to remain and will stomp on anyone attempting to threaten their power and are feral in protecting their people.

Going outside the system rarely works. The primary system, with its low voter turn-out, favors them that Is as they have the organization and numbers in their pocket -- that's how they got to be an Is.

Those high-up in the hierarchy are dependent on the state Is's and generally have close back-scratching ties going back decades. The higher-ups are the Status that is quo and want to keep the system that brought them to prominence.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 01:59:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: shoot the Bush Dogs (4.00 / 3)

From what I can tell the way people rise is by getting some close, close ties to the senior people in the party machine and/or elected officials. Then when a slot opens up, you get the nod and the organization that goes with it. Of course NYC might be a bit unusual given that it has both a powerful old style party machine and is basically a one party town where with the exception of Staten Island and Eastern Queens, the only election that matters is the primary. The typical route for a realistic anti-incumbent challenge is very strong local grass roots organizing experience along with a cadre of devoted workaholic volunteers. Money is relatively unimportant for local and state legislative races - media costs are so high that they just don't make sense for anyone. Citywide and federal office stuff is of course a very different matter - those cost fortunes.

by MarekNYC on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 02:06:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Racism and the Race (4.00 / 2)

It's been deconstructed many times. As Frank Newport over at Gallup pointed out, Obama's doing about what we expect Dems to do among whites. A little better now, actually. McCain needs about 60% of whites to win, because of Obama's over-performance among blacks and Latinos compared with past Dems and the fact that America is becoming more diverse as time goes on.

The NYT's lame headlines are beaten only by the fantastically stupid ones from the AP.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 12:12:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Racism and the Race (none / 1)

Standard media trolling. Plenty of urban liberals want to know they're still better than all the racist hicks out in the country.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 01:06:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Racism and the Race (none / 0)

It applies most to Appalachians. Scots-Irish/Scottish whites who live kinda-sorta near blacks but not among them -- most of all Appalachian whites in sparsely populated areas near where the Appalachian Mountains meet the Piedmont Plateau -- have real issues voting for blacks. Whites in the cities are fine with blacks, as are whites out in rural western America (where there are very few blacks and thus no real history of fearmongering).

In fact, the rural western whites, especially (and ironically) in the more heavily Mormon areas, seem to have an unusual tendency to support Obama compared with past Dems. For some reason that makes sense to me, and there are a variety of reasons that come to mind, but I don't know how to put my finger on it.

Obama's actually winning blue-collar whites. And, were it not for Appalachia, I bet it'd be by an impressive margin.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 12:21:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (none / 1)

Dave Pollard has some dystopian views on this issue. I don't agree with him overall, but it is thought provoking (although to some degree nothing that poemless and others have not already said.)

How to Save the World

Why McCain Will Win: I've been predicting a McCain win since I spoke with Joe Bageant and read his book. Now the polls are tipping his way, and others are trying to explain it by blaming the media. But people don't believe the media much -- they believe their friends, and the people they see and hear. The 40% who are uneducated, white, working-class Americans therefore believe McCain when he says the Iraq war is winnable, and that he cares about their values. That's all they need to hear. To win, Obama needs 84% of the remainder of voters, an impossible stretch. And as Elizabeth Kolbert reports, McCain has thrown away all his previous principles and jumped on the pro-big-business, anti-environment bandwagon to line up the big right-wing corporatist campaign donors. On top of all that, says Sara Robinson, Obama supporters are from the Quaker/Puritan cultural heritage who don't fight back, giving advantage to the muckraking and mudslinging McCain supporters from the Scots/Irish/Cavalier heritage. Thanks to Dale Asberry for the Robinson link.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 10:28:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (none / 1)

Well he's certainly right about the inability of the Democrats to fight for anything they might believe in. One of my pet theories is that the public view the Dems as the unprincipled party because they always compromise, something republicans never do. So they're seen as the group with no belief and no core principles.

Democrats practice bipartizanship and get creamed, repugs only talk about it (especially when they're losing) but never, ever give in on anything they want.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 11:12:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (none / 1)

To win, Obama needs 84% of the remainder of voters, an impossible stretch.

I'm curious to know how Pollard managed to graduate middle school with those math skills. Obama is ahead right now (I think that's generally agreed to), thus Obama would need less than 50% of remaining voters to win.

Consensus seems to hold that Obama's ahead by four or five points (depending on methodology), which is roughly what it was a month ago, and two months ago, etc. So I'm not sure where he gets the idea that the polls are moving to McCain. There's been a tad bit of movement since McCain started going negative, but it's so small that it could just as easily be statistical noise, and it actually seems that things are moving a tad back to Obama lately, which, again, suggests noise.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 12:31:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (none / 0)

Wossname over on OpenLeft (no cite) made the point yesterday that the race has been static since June when Obama clinched.

He used state polls to prove it - actually the places where we elect a president.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 12:51:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (4.00 / 2)

That's basically true. But note, as I said the other day, that we've seen these little "pops" in Obama's favor, when good things happen (clinching the nomination, Berlin, etc). He's able to jump out to double-digit leads in the regular polls, and very high single-digit leads in the trackers, leading me to believe that there's a group out there that is "undecided" but essentially with Obama, and it gives him roughly 50%+1. Beyond that group, like I said, I think the undecideds -- the real ones -- are split about evenly, or perhaps with a very slight lean towards McCain.

Enough to get Obama a five- or six-point win, I'd guess now (nothing wild but pretty respectable in recent election history), which would basically net him Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Virginia, along with perhaps Ohio and Nevada, and maybe Indiana and/or North Carolina.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 01:01:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (none / 1)

I do understand Rasmussen's predilection for Likely Voters over Registered Voters. GOP has recently been much better at GOTV than Dems.

This time, it's looking like the Dems have the advantage.

Obama is opening offices all over the frickin' place, just like Rove did in '04. McCain is lagging way behind just like Kerry. There's even getting to be a wee bit of hysteria about McCain's sloth in GOPer circles. With Rove on-board Obama's current advantage should decline ... but how much? How many Christian-Righters in Rove's rol-a-dex can he get back to work after so many years? How many of them are still alive?

GOTV organization are crucial, crucial, crucial in getting loosely attached (most Independents) to the booth. Without one, determining and getting your 72-hour Deciders to the booth is impossible. Both of these groups are notorious for sitting on the asses come Election Day.

This is said because the voting percentages for either candidate depend on the final vote tally. Meaning the 'support' for a candidate doesn't necessarily translate on Election Day. Obama could easily have a 4-6% polling lead and a greater percentage of the actual vote. I worked on a campaign in the 70s where we were polling in the single digits but our tally came in at 17% -- IIRC. We still got slaughtered - the story of my political life - but we got our people to the booth and the other side didn't make the effort. This magnitude disparity won't happen in November but it is indicative.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 01:33:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (none / 1)

ATinNM:

How many of them are still alive?

How many of them aren't on trial or in prison?

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 02:17:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (4.00 / 2)

For the record, while I agree with the conclusion OpenLeft made, I also think Bowers and Stoller often behave like morons peddling some of the lamest pop-sociology I've read on the big blogs.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 01:03:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (none / 1)

they guy's a joke as a candidate,

well we now know then that 40% are a joke as voters

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.

by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 12:26:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (none / 1)

Two decades of a hardening electorate is what's happened. That's why I think the political science models are silly when they predict Obama margins of ten to fifteen points. You could put Roosevelt on the ballot in Obama's place, and it wouldn't be that wide.

I wouldn't worry too much. He's winning right now, it's only August, and it looks like the Obama campaign has found what could be an effective bit with their ads. And don't underestimate Obama's massive ground game compared with McCain's almost nonexistent one.

The polling average is also kept tighter than it should be because of Rasmussen's stupid insistence on polling likely voters right now instead of the customary registered-voter model that works better (and that everyone else uses) so far out from the election. The consensus is still Obama in the high-40s, McCain between 40% and 43%. All things considered, it ain't a bad place to be.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 12:43:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (none / 1)

That's why I think the political science models are silly when they predict Obama margins of ten to fifteen points.

I agree. (But I'd like a stash of whatever they're smoking! ;-)

My WAG is McCain will revert to the 50 million Bush got in '00 and Obama will get between 55 and 59 (the Kerry vote) million. How that plays-out in EVs is anybodies guess. Obama will do very, very well in total vote from states he is going to win anyway, e.g., DC and Illinois, upping the total vote but not necessarily translating into Electoral College Votes.

The more McCain falls under the 50 million and the greater the distribution of Obama's vote over the states the more likely of an Obama win or, even, landslide.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 01:03:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Rogue Nation (4.00 / 2)

How come Bush's approval hovers around 30 percent?

At 40 percent, McCain has only 10 percent more approval than Bush. He's the Republican candidate, he's the heir to Bush, and he's been branded as a 'war hero'. So take the Bush base, and tack on 10 percent of Americans who will vote for the war vet or who cannot vote for a black man or a Democrat and you get McCain's 40 percent.

Anyway, I think Americans will keep voting for idiots as long as the rest of the world funds our debt. When the rest of the world stops funding the U.S. debt, my cynical view is that we Americans will vote for the candidate that hints at waging war on the rest of the world.

The U.S. has a huge war machine with lots of missiles and bombs. America will get to a point where it is use it or lose it.

I highly doubt that my fellow Americans will go softly into the night. If America is going to collapse, I suspect my fellow Americans make the world suffer as well... out of spite.

by Magnifico on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 12:48:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (4.00 / 4)

BBC NEWS | Europe | Le Pen sells party HQ to Chinese

France's anti-immigrant party, the National Front, is selling its headquarters to a Chinese university, according to the party leader.
<...>
Mr Le Pen, 79, has campaigned to become president several times under the slogan "Keep France for the French".
<...>
"A formal sale offer has been signed with a university in Shanghai," the National Front's press service said, quoted by AFP.
The unnamed Chinese higher education institution has reportedly paid between 12 and 15m euros ($18 - 22m; £9.4m - 11.7m) for the sprawling mansion in the western Paris suburb of Saint Cloud, known as The Cruiseliner.
The university is reportedly considering turning the building into a French language school.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 10:20:48 AM EST

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (4.00 / 2)

What good news this would be, if it weren't the result of Sarkozy taking over Le Pen's voter base.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 10:24:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

And now for some VERY important news: (4.00 / 7)

Giant dog turd wreaks havoc at Swiss museum | World news | guardian.co.uk

A giant inflatable dog turd created by the American artist Paul McCarthy was blown from its moorings at a Swiss museum, bringing down a power line and breaking a window before landing in the grounds of a children's home.

by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 10:50:07 AM EST

Re: And now for some VERY important news: (4.00 / 2)

Do you think the children from the children's home will start to worship the giant flying dog turd?

"Ne te courbe que pour aimer..." René Char

by Melanchthon on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 10:57:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

OT (none / 1)

I emailed you a couple of days ago, did you get it ?

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 11:13:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OT (none / 1)

I got it today (I've had some troubles with my mailbox) and answered.

"Ne te courbe que pour aimer..." René Char

by Melanchthon on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 11:32:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And now for some VERY important news: (4.00 / 5)

Only a third of them. It has been foretold:
The Bible - Revelations Chapter 8

8:8  The second angel sounded, and something like a great dog-turd was seen in the sky. One third of the sea became sewage,

8:9  and one third of the living creatures which were in the sea defecated abnormally. One third of the ships were covered in poo.

8:10  and of those that saw the great dog-turd, a third had their eyes burnt. One third turned away and towards the LORD. One third fell to their knees, and praised the turd, and worshipped it.

by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 11:18:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And now for some VERY important news: (4.00 / 3)

a picture of the dog turd, though not flying.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 03:45:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And now for some VERY important news: (4.00 / 2)

Thank you I shall sleep well tonight.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 03:48:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And now for some VERY important news: (none / 1)

Complex shit, batman!, that someone gets paid to put that up outside a fair grounds.

Frolicking hippos?

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. --Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 05:07:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And now for some VERY important news: (none / 1)

I don't see the problem with addressing it. We all shit. What is so fantastic about it? The deritrus of our human lives is one of the biggest problems on the planet. We need to think about it.

And don't get me started on masturbation.....

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 05:17:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And now for some VERY important news: (none / 1)

What is so fantastic about it? Exactly!

I wish looking at that would help us all, but it just helps us pass the time.

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. --Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 05:24:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And now for some VERY important news: (none / 1)

When I first saw it, I could hardly believe my eyes - thats why I took the picture. And to think that this is considered art. <shaking head>

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 05:27:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And now for some VERY important news: (4.00 / 3)

Fran - then you don't understand what Art is about ;-)

Aesthetics (look it up) is not solely (or even mostly) about beauty. Artists explore. Most of them do not know where they are going - they are just going into a map where a lot of areas are still coloured white, or marked Terra Incognita. If you are an explorer you don't need to know the destination - just a vague theory.

Art is not about decoration! Art is about challenging how we see or feel the world. Art is not meant to make you comfortable. Art challenges what you think and feel about the world around you.

Otherwise it is called Interior Design ;-)

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 06:06:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And now for some VERY important news: (4.00 / 3)

It's still crap though. :)

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 08:57:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And now for some VERY important news: (4.00 / 2)

You know Sven, you are absolutely right, if this is supposed to be art, I am an absolute ignoramus of art. :-)

Art for me is something that touches deeply and uplifts. And also something were I feel, it is more than anything I could ever do. Now the dog poop is not something if feel is uplifing and beyond my own talents.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 13th, 2008 at 01:19:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And now for some VERY important news: (none / 0)

Fran - that uplift is one aspect of Art, and one that is historically the result of patronage from the nobility and the church. But there are many other aspects. ;-)

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Wed Aug 13th, 2008 at 11:52:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And now for some VERY important news: (4.00 / 2)

But if there is ONE thing I have learned - it is that taboos restrict debate. I include all religions in this ;-)

If we are going to solve problems, then we have to accept a much broader interpretation of what it is to be alive..... :-)

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 05:34:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And now for some VERY important news: (4.00 / 2)

I agree with your comment here, I never been respectful of taboos and they should be challenged. Now if you want to discuss dog boop with me, even for hours your are welcome, I have no problem discussing that kind of stuff - I just refuse to call it art.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 13th, 2008 at 01:22:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And now for some VERY important news: (none / 0)

Fran, I am not defending this particular piece of 'art'. I am defending the right of artists to make mistakes in exploring the relationship between artwork and audience.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Wed Aug 13th, 2008 at 11:55:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And now for some VERY important news: (4.00 / 2)

And don't get me started on masturbation.....

you mean you can't start on your own?

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.

by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 10:21:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And now for some VERY important news: (none / 1)

Obviously, not OUR someone!

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. --Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 05:18:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And now for some VERY important news: (4.00 / 2)

Looks like someone ate the flying spaghetti monster.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 11:01:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Georgia on my mind (4.00 / 3)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 10:59:41 AM EST

how about (none / 1)

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.

by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 12:43:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: how about (none / 0)

Ughhh !! I've always hated that song, epsecially as it was rammed down us rockers throats at an otherwise great rock disco by a DJ who'd always start the evening with a load of ~~shite~~ southern boogie that used to drive us all mad.

Thanks Steve, I'll always hate ~~shite~~ southern boogie cos of you.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 01:03:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (4.00 / 2)

FT.com / Companies / Financial services - UBS unveils shake-up as losses widen

UBS, the biggest European casualty of the US credit crisis, on Tuesday announced a raft of measures to improve its performance as it reported widening losses and further writedowns of $5.1bn related to risky credit-related investments.
The changes came as the group said it lost a net SFr358m in the second quarter after a further $5.1bn of writedowns on its troubled credit positions. The latest hit took the bank's total writedowns since the start of the crisis last year to about $43bn.
These losses have led shareholders to question the corporate governance and risk profile at UBS, as well as its so-called integrated business model which combines wealth management and investment banking.
UBS, the world's biggest wealth manager, confirmed it had suffered massive net outflows of money in the second quarter as its subprime problems damaged client confidence in other businesses. The core wealth management business suffered outflows of SFr17.3bn. Some SFr2bn moved out of the business banking Switzerland operation, while global asset management suffered a net reduction of SFr24.5bn in funds under management.
The total net outflows of SFr43.8bn in the second quarter compared with inflows of SFr34bn in the same period last year.
Adding to the gloom, the bank provided a grim outlook for the year, saying that it saw no let up to the tough financial conditions facing it.
"In the second half of this year, UBS does not expect to see any improvement in the adverse economic and financial market trends that affected this quarter's results.

"Ne te courbe que pour aimer..." René Char

by Melanchthon on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 11:04:00 AM EST

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (4.00 / 3)

It looks more and more (even if I knew it before) that it simply does not matter whom Americans will vote for president. After reading this:
http://www.barackobama.com/2008/08/09/statement_from_senator_barack_3.php
it is so obvious that USA foreign policy will be TOTALLY the same no matter who wins election. What's the difference there? Wording...that's all.
After GW Bush it became obvious to me that USA presidents are just a decor. They do not decide about single thingy.
Prior to GW Bush this decoration was useful for domestic as well as for outlandish use. After Bush they will be useful only domesticly. After an idiot as Bush world is ready for an old senile clown as Mc Cane. Even if it is not funny any more...
Decision makers on the other hand are not that much visible...and all though they have all the wealth and brains and technique on their hands they are not necessarily smart...actually their greed makes any smart decision impossible.

by vbo on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 11:05:17 AM EST

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (none / 1)

Ok Mc Cain...wrong spelling

by vbo on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 11:11:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (4.00 / 5)

Exactly why I'm not a fan of Obama.

But it is a mistake, IMO, to equate him with McCain.

US foreign policy has centered on military adventurism to support the US economy, especially the large corporations and international corporations that profit by such actions, since 1940. Almost the entirety of a president's primary and secondary support staff: advisers, political operatives, aides, etc., have grown up, and acquired their positions, in this environment. Both parties, both campaigns, both men draw from this pool and rely on this pool. Further, there is wide-spread public support for these policies and actions.

Until that changes the president of the US is held 'hostage' to the status quo.

McCain, I submit, is essentially unteachable. His public persona as well as his personality is firmly embedded in the Cold War. Thus, presented with a Cold War analysis will automatically accept it.

Obama, I submit, opens the possibility - and only the (slight?) possibility - of breaking with the Cold War mentality and the military-economic elite that have controlled the US since 1940. (In my view, both have to be discarded simultaneously in order to move forward.) Obama is now receiving information from the Bush administration. Within this administration the two, normally hostile, camps will and have united over the Georgian conflict because it fits both the neo-con and Cold Warrior schemata. To the neo-cons the Russian action is an affront to "The New American Century" paradigm. The Cold Warriors look to "contain" the Soviet Union. As such, it is very likely Obama is receiving a unified message from the White House, the military, and the Dept. of State and so is toeing their line.

Obama, I think, is more interested in domestic policy. Should he decided to concentrate on this the money, time, and effect spent on foreign policy must, necessary, decrease relative to the administrations since 1940. Certainly, given the economic problems of the US, the amount of money available for military actions has declined during the Bush administration. Certainly the logistic infrastructure of the US military: tanks, AFVs, quality of the soldiers, bullets, bombs, beans, & etc., is broken and to bring it back will require hundreds of billions -- a perfect 'out' should the O-man take it.

None of this is to say Obama WILL do such and such. I merely point out he is the best of the two, one of which WILL be president.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 11:33:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (4.00 / 4)

Having to choose one of the two I agree it should be Obama but frankly I do not harbor any hopes for worlds better fortune with USA foreign policy any time soon...

by vbo on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 11:46:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (none / 1)

I haven't had any hope since 1980.

The US Ruling Class, and their lap-dogs in the US government, are going to continue their imperial ways until the US military is broken beyond repair and the US electorate decides enough is enough.

We're not at either point, yet.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 12:07:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (4.00 / 2)

A new Presidential administration in the US typically has a very large effect on domestic politics but a much smaller one in terms of foreign policy. Expect no miracles there.

Foreign policy change in the US requires a major catalyst, as you saw with 9-11, for example. The trick is to have someone with a clue in charge when a catalyst is presented. Unfortunately we have had a Bush in charge both times this has occurred in recent history.

by paving on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 04:52:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (none / 0)

Looks like we are about to witness more "fireworks" soon...
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=9799

by vbo on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 11:35:37 AM EST

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (4.00 / 2)

Well, I wouldn't call the "Earl of Stirling" a reliable source...
It looks like a normal carrier group rotation.

"Ne te courbe que pour aimer..." René Char

by Melanchthon on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 11:47:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (none / 1)

Let's hope so...

by vbo on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 11:51:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes, let's hope so. (none / 0)

Hate to be alarmist, but I am really worried about the next six months. There are really three groups there now, including the Indian Ocean group. Plus, we have no idea where the nuke-missile subs are cruising.

The simple fact is that, if Israel starts something, the Persian Gulf fleets will get involved, with or without provocation. If they are decimated, or if Iran attacks U.S. forces in Iraq, I have little hope that Bushco will forego nuclear.

paul spencer

by paul spencer (spencerinthegorge AT yahoo DOT com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 12:07:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes, let's hope so. (none / 0)

Wanna bet against somewhere in the Pentagon or White House some neo-con idiot is suggesting the US pop a nuke to provide "evidence" for an Iranian bomb?

I won't. That's the sort of thing those yahoos do.

I don't think any nukes have been released to the field. There's no reason for 'em. I don't think the military brass would go along and their 'buy-in' is absolutely vital for such a plan to succeed.

I do think we're entering an extremely dangerous time. Cheney and the other neo-cons are looking at 4 to 8 years of political eclipse. That much time means the next administration can make the moves to prevent their "New American Century" from ever happening. They've got to be desperate and that's not a good place to be when making critical decisions.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 12:16:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes, let's hope so. (none / 1)

Well, firstly, the cold war may be over, but noone turned their detectors off yet, the moment anyone tried any stupid shit like that alarm bells would be ringing all over the world. For that reason the big missiles are out, although their range would mean that you could launch them fromthe Atlantic, or the Arctic circle to hit Iran (Possibly the most stupid place to launch from) A launch from a cruise missile would be a violation of several treaties, not that the Bush white house has been overly woried about that before.

If the Yahoos were to do something like that, firstly they'd need control of the blast area to prevent forensic analysis of the waste which would link the explosion back to the source reactors. secondly you'd need an absolutely fault free missile. and we all know how unlikely that is normal missiles fail fairly regularly, i've seen figures of up to 20% failure on high tech whizz-bang technology, and thats hoping that they dont fly off in the wrong direction into any of Irans neuclear armed neighbours

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.

by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 01:45:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes, let's hope so. (4.00 / 2)

I don't think it is likely.

I'm just working out my paranoia in my Group Therapy Session.

;-)

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 02:05:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes, let's hope so. (none / 1)

the problem is every time my therapist reckons i've got it licked, the white house does something to wreck my hard won mental equilibrium.

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.

by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 02:27:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes, let's hope so. (4.00 / 2)

That's why (you have a bunch and) I have one, permanent, full time, in-house,
furry therapist.

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. --Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 02:32:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes, let's hope so. (none / 1)

oh yes, but they decided to take it in turns waking me up through thenight, I think they must have thought I was in danger of having Georgia based nightmares.

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.

by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 02:52:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes, let's hope so. (none / 0)

Why to nuclear. If you really want to completely screw Iran, and are willing to pay a high cost, but aren't indifferent to costs, then there's a much easier way - destroy their energy export capability. Unlike many of the other oil exporting states Iran isn't saving up the windfall, but rather spending it.

by MarekNYC on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 12:18:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes, let's hope so. (4.00 / 4)

I still maintain there are 150,000 plus hostages for america/Israel's good behaviour sitting right next door to Iran.

There are potentially over a million men at arms beholden to various Shi'ite groupings who might, for money and the craic, get involved in taking thousands of US hostages into Iran. I really don't see anything that could stop that happening, the sheer force of numbers would overwhelm long before re-inforcements cold be organised. You can't bomb a prisoner convoy, you can't attack it. And once the bombs start dropping in Tehran they've got nothing to lose.

Not even Dick Cheney would fire a missile at a silo with a load of US prisoners lined up outside it.

Iran is only america's to lose (again).

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 12:48:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (4.00 / 2)

I wouldn't call 'Global Research' a reliable source - no shortage of oil, no man-made greenhouse effect, 9/11 conspiracy theory crap are some of their pet causes...

by MarekNYC on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 12:09:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (none / 0)

The same piece on the Earl of Stirling's blog. (Scroll down for the "About Me").

Just a further blood-curdling quote:

Massive US Naval Armada Heads For Iran

The two-ton elephant in the living room of the neo-con strategy is the advanced biowar (ABW) that Iran, and to a lessor extent Syria, has. This places the motherlands of the major neo-con nations (America, France, the United Kingdom), as well as Israel, in grave danger. When the Soviet Union fell the Iranians hired as many out-of-work former Soviet advanced biowar experts as possible. In the last 15 or so years they have helped to develop a truly world class ABW program utilizing recombination DNA genetic engineering technology to create a large number of man made killer viruses. This form of weapon system does not require high tech military delivery systems. The viruses are sub-microscopic and once seeded in a population use the population itself as vectors. Seeding can be done without notice in shopping malls, churches, and other public places. The only real defense to an advanced global strategic biowar attack is to lock down the population as rapidly as possible and let those infected die off.

I believe the Earl of Stirling signed our anti-Blair petition.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 12:39:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (4.00 / 2)

Jesus.

The US Naval forces being assembled include the following:
Carrier Strike Group Nine
USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN72) nuclear powered supercarrier
with its Carrier Air Wing Two
Destroyer Squadron Nine:
USS Mobile Bay (CG53) guided missile cruiser
USS Russell (DDG59) guided missile destroyer
USS Momsen (DDG92) guided missile destroyer
USS Shoup (DDG86) guided missile destroyer
USS Ford (FFG54) guided missile frigate
USS Ingraham (FFG61) guided missile frigate
USS Rodney M. Davis (FFG60) guided missile frigate
USS Curts (FFG38) guided missile frigate
Plus one or more nuclear hunter-killer submarines
Peleliu Expeditionary Strike Group
USS Peleliu (LHA-5) a Tarawa-class amphibious assault carrier
USS Pearl Harbor (LSD52) assult ship
USS Dubuque (LPD8) assult ship/landing dock
USS Cape St. George (CG71) guided missile cruiser
USS Halsey (DDG97) guided missile destroyer
USS Benfold (DDG65) guided missile destroyer
Carrier Strike Group Two
USS Theodore Roosevelt (DVN71) nuclear powered supercarrier
with its Carrier Air Wing Eight
Destroyer Squadron 22
USS Monterey (CG61) guided missile cruiser
USS Mason (DDG87) guided missile destroyer
USS Nitze (DDG94) guided missile destroyer
USS Sullivans (DDG68) guided missile destroyer
USS Springfield (SSN761) nuclear powered hunter-killer submarine
IWO ESG ~ Iwo Jima Expeditionary Strike Group
USS Iwo Jima (LHD7) amphibious assault carrier
with its Amphibious Squadron Four
and with its 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit
USS San Antonio (LPD17) assault ship
USS Velia Gulf (CG72) guided missile cruiser
USS Ramage (DDG61) guided missile destroyer
USS Carter Hall (LSD50) assault ship
USS Roosevelt (DDG80) guided missile destroyer
USS Hartfore (SSN768) nuclear powered hunter-killer submarine
Carrier Strike Group Seven
USS Ronald Reagan (CVN76) nuclear powered supercarrier
with its Carrier Air Wing 14
Destroyer Squadron 7
USS Chancellorsville (CG62) guided missile cruiser
USS Howard (DDG83) guided missile destroyer
USS Gridley (DDG101) guided missile destroyer
USS Decatur (DDG73) guided missile destroyer
USS Thach (FFG43) guided missile frigate
USNS Rainier (T-AOE-7) fast combat support ship
Also likely to join the battle armada:
UK Royal Navy HMS Ark Royal Carrier Strike Group with assorted guided missile destroyers and frigates, nuclear hunter-killer submarines and support ships.
Various other US Navy warships and submarines and support ships. The following USN ships took part (as the "enemy" forces) in Operation Brimstone and several may join in:
USS San Jacinto (CG56) guided missile cruiser
USS Anzio (CG68) guided missile cruiser
USS Normandy (CG60) guided missile cruiser
USS Carney (DDG64) guided missile destroyer
USS Oscar Austin (DDG79) guided missile destroyer
USS Winston S. Churchill (DDG81) guided missile destroyer
USS Carr (FFG52) guided missile frigate

This may be a relief force for the ships currently operating in Iraqi (and Iranian) waters. It may be an effort to reinforce NATO operations in Afghanistan, which are sorely in need of support. One can hope, eh? Or it may be reinforcements for an attack.

One bad thing: the Navy has been pretty much idle during the Iraqi War so they haven't experienced the attrition of the Army and Marines. US naval forces are intact. Together with the Air Force, always possessed by delusions of competence, they could present the illusion, to the decision-makers, of conducting a successful attack on Iranian uranium enrichment sites.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 12:02:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (none / 1)

I think it adds the two carrier strike groups and the expeditionary strike group currently deployed in the Gulf area and the groups coming to relieve them.

The lists don't differ from the normal composition of a carrier strike group (1 carrier, 1 cruiser, 3 to 5 destroyers and frigates, 1 attack submarine)

"Ne te courbe que pour aimer..." René Char

by Melanchthon on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 12:36:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (4.00 / 2)

As I remember there was a similar thing happening this time last year, in fact I'm sure I highlighted a dKos diary about it.

I guess once bitten, twice shy and I'm much less concerned this time aorund.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 12:40:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tuesday Open Thread (4.00 / 2)

The hysteria created by the "3rd carrier group in the gulf" last year was embarrassing.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 02:06:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Honeymoon is Over for Europe (4.00 / 2)

Economic Malaise Threatens To Undermine European Unity
By Anthony Faiola, Washington Post

... Spain's problems underscore a reversal of fortune for Europe, only a few months ago seen as a much-needed pillar of strength in a global economy that is sharply slowing alongside shocks from the U.S. financial crisis and soaring prices for energy and food. Europe is joining the United States and Japan in what is turning into First World economic malaise, leaving the still-healthy emerging giants of Asia and Latin America to sustain global growth for the first time.
The downturn is confronting Europe with a disturbing reality: Revised predictions show that it will slow as much, if not more, than the United States over the next 18 months, while some of its problems may prove harder to fix.
The vastly more generous social safety nets in Europe have made it so Europeans are likely to suffer less than Americans from the global slowdown. But as the once-sizzling economies in Europe go cold, discontent with the notion of the E.U. appears to be growing. Ireland, for instance, dealt a blow to the future of the union in June by rejecting a treaty that would have, among other things, created a full-time E.U. president.
"The deteriorating economic condition is putting new stress on Europe, which seems to be even weaker now than the U.S.," said Tom Mayer, chief economist for Deutsche Bank. "Some pessimists even talk now about the euro area breaking apart. I would not go that far, but we do know the honeymoon is over and this is the first real test of the marriage that we have seen."

Personally, I figure the U.S. press runs stories like this when the American economy and world clout is in decline to persuade Americans from bolting. See Europe is Doomed! Don't try to move there. America is great! I think it has less to do with Europe, but the perception the U.S. corporate media wants to project of Europe.

by Magnifico on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 12:39:23 PM EST

Me first (4.00 / 3)

Europe.Is.Doomed...So.Doomed.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 01:00:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Me first (none / 1)

Note that it's Thomas-Mayer-the-Deutsche-Bank-economist who's taking shots at the Eurozone once again. He's a specialist.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 01:26:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Honeymoon is Over for Europe (4.00 / 2)

They're primarily concerned with Americans demanding their middle class lifestyle back. As Europe provides better for the masses with less money, "they" want to hide it from American view, or if that fails, claim it is unsustainable (Europe is doomed) or immoral (socialism / communism).

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 02:24:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Honeymoon is Over for Europe (none / 1)

BBC NEWS | Business | Pound suffers as dollar rebounds

The dollar has hit a six-month high against the euro and its highest in almost two years against the pound.
The US currency has bounced back from record lows against euro on fears that European growth may slow sharply.
The UK is also struggling with high inflation and faltering growth, causing a slide in sterling.
The European currency hit a six-month low of $1.4812, while the pound hit a 21-month low of $1.9012 in trading on Tuesday morning.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 02:27:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Honeymoon is Over for Europe (none / 0)

Meh, these things go up and down. A year from now, I suspect the pound will be a fair bit weaker against the dollar. I expect the euro to be about where it is now. But who knows?

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 02:42:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Honeymoon is Over for Europe (none / 1)

drop drop drop! Millman wants to spend more than one month in yerp!

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 04:00:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Inflation up - good for the economy (none / 0)

Guardian - Inflation surges to 16-year high

Inflation soared to 4.4% last month - the biggest jump in the cost of living in more than 16 years - on the back of rocketing food prices, clouding hopes that the Bank of England will move to cut interest rates in coming months
[.....]
"Hundreds of thousands of families now have the threat of negative equity hanging over them, businesses are cutting back, unemployment is creeping up and this morning's inflation figures are yet another worrying signal for families desperately trying to make ends meet," said Cameron at his monthly press conference today.

Yet, don't worry !! All is well. Here's an ex-Editor of the Economist to tell us that if we look at things the other way round, up is down, black is white and poverty is wealth for all...hooorah !!

Guardian - Bill Emmott - Crisis, what crisis? Enough kerfuffle, it's just a slowdown

For the past year has actually not been very bad at all - unless you are a banker, a bank shareholder or Gordon Brown; and few will shed tears for any of those. Unemployment, that traditional begetter of rebellions against capitalism, hasn't risen at all. In fact it has dropped from 5.4% to 5.2% of the workforce. The economy grew in the year to the second quarter by, oh my gosh, just 1.6%. Earnings have been rising by - yikes! - 3.8% a year. Let's all head for the hills.
The only statistics that point strongly in a downward direction are those for bank shares, house prices and mortgage lending. So far this has really been a crisis just for the Daily Mail and the Financial Times. Oh, and the IMF. Most ordinary people have been affected more by inflation, in the form of rising petrol and food prices, than by anything connected to the supposed crisis of capitalism

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 01:39:31 PM EST

Re: Inflation up - good for the economy (none / 0)

Jeebus, that's -- what, 2.2x the target now? At least the Fed doesn't pretend to give a shit about inflation anymore. But the BoE, well....

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 01:57:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ceiling Comes Down on European Parliament (4.00 / 2)

(...)

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 01:49:49 PM EST

Re: Ceiling Comes Down on European Parliament (4.00 / 3)

See, Europe is collapsing ;)

by MarekNYC on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 01:55:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ceiling Comes Down on European Parliament (4.00 / 2)

Absolutely. Europe.Is.Doomed

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 04:00:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ceiling Comes Down on European Parliament (4.00 / 2)

The secret plan to move the parliament permantly out of france is well underway I see.

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.

by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 10:27:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Woah (none / 1)

Could it be? Could Ted Stevens have conceivably handed Alaska to Barack Obama?

Obama 45
McCain 40
Nader 2

The poll was commissioned by the Electrical Workers, done by a firm called Hays Research, which is apparently respectable in Alaska. A swing, from about a five-point McCain lead to a five-point Obama lead, isn't inconceivable, given that every big-name GOPer has a scandal up there.

Very interesting.

And must be good news for John McCain, of course.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 03:38:10 PM EST

Re: Woah (none / 0)

The last Alaskan poll by Rasmussen July 17 had:

McCain 53
Obama 42

McCain's dropped 13%? In ALASKA!?!

But also note Obama has only raised 3%.

We've got to consider this an outlier until another polls confirms.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 04:50:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Woah (none / 0)

53-42? Last Ras poll had it McCain 48-42 Obama that I see.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 04:54:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oops, Sorry for the Wrong Info (4.00 / 3)

I blame the internets.

Somehow I googled to an older poll and missed the August one.

So sometime between July 17 and August 7 McCain took the slippery slope to disaster. And this recent Hays poll confirms the Rasmussen findings.

Wow.

So a swing of Montana and Alaska, assuming the Kerry States, would clinch it for O.

Wow²

Hey! You kids! Get the HELL off my Political Map!

:-)

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 05:27:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oops, Sorry for the Wrong Info (none / 1)

It's our political map now, my friend. We just let you borrow it here and there from now on. ;)

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Aug 12th, 2008 at 05:37:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oops, Sorry for the Wrong Info (none / 1)

An aside: How damned cool would it be to nab Alaska and Montana?

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.co