European Tribune - Community, Politics & Progress.

3 million workers fear unemployment

by In Wales
Thu Aug 28th, 2008 at 04:41:21 AM EST

Taken from a TUC press release based on a YouGov poll:

More than 3.3 million workers (13 per cent of the workforce) are not confident they will still be in their job in a year’s time.
...
Workers in Wales are the least confident of keeping their jobs. 20 per cent of workers in Wales say they are “not very confident” or “not at all confident” when asked how confident are you “that you can keep working for your current employer over the next 12 months if you want to.” Scottish workers are next with 17 per cent not confident of keeping their jobs.

Workers in medium sized businesses are the least confident with 18 per cent of staff in those with 50 to 249 workers saying they are not confident of being in their jobs in a year, compared to 12 per cent in big workplaces (more than 1000 employees).
Those in low paid jobs are less secure than those in better paid jobs. The least confident about keeping their job earn between £10,000 and £15,000 and the most confident earn more than £50,000. Union members were more optimistic than non-members, with 48 per cent of trade unionists very confident that they would be in their job in a year’s time, compared to 40 per of workers not in a union.

People are clearly worried about economic slowdown and the impact this could have on remaining employed. Added to the credit crunch, higher oil and food prices is there a danger that this could turn into a self fulfilling prophecy, making the downturn deeper than it needs to be?

Would the usual suspects of those in less secure and less well paid employment be the first to suffer, as they fear most?

Any similar polls elsewhere in Europe to compare with this?

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3 million workers fear unemployment | 12 comments (12 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Good thing their interests are being (none / 1)

represented by the "Labour" Party...

Ah, New Labour...

"C'est un scandale !"

by redstar on Thu Aug 28th, 2008 at 06:31:35 AM EST

Re: 3 million workers fear unemployment (none / 1)

In general, I think it is not yet a topic here. At least I do not hear people talk about. Unless they work for one of the big banks, especially UBS, that are now restructering to make up for their losses in the US hausing market and mortage crash.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Aug 28th, 2008 at 09:03:22 AM EST

Re: 3 million workers fear unemployment (none / 1)

It gets better, too. The housing crash has officially hit, and the recession has almost undoubtedly begun there.

Bloomberg | UK House Prices Drop Most Since 1990, Retail Index Plunges:

Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house prices declined at the fastest annual pace in almost two decades and an index of retail sales plunged to a 25-year low in August as Britain's economy edged closer to a recession.
The average value of a home fell 10.5 percent to 164,654 pounds ($301,500), the biggest drop since the final quarter of 1990, Nationwide Building Society said today. A gauge of retail sales fell to minus 46 from minus 36 the previous month, the Confederation of British Industry said in a separate report. That's the lowest since its survey began in July 1983.
Today's reports indicate Britain is heading for its first recession since the early 1990s after stagnating in the second quarter as higher living costs hurt spending and the credit squeeze ripples through the economy. As the outlook worsens, economists at banks including Societe Generale SA and Bank of America Corp. now forecast the Bank of England will be forced to set aside inflation concerns and cut interest rates this year.
``The big issue is how long and how severe'' the U.K.'s recession is going to be, said Jim O'Neill, head of global economic research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. ``We're in it. It shouldn't be news anymore.''

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Aug 28th, 2008 at 10:07:47 AM EST

Re: 3 million workers fear unemployment (none / 1)

It is a classic declining spiral of confidence. People always have more month a the end of the money, the credit bluff has now been called and now people know there is no magic way out of debt.

So they spend less, which hits the high street. which causes redundancies which only make the situation worse.
People can't save and can't borrow, so estage agents and finance houses have lower volumes, so they have redundancies.

Sector by sector there is less economic activity, which means there is less employment, so there is even less economic activity. And so on.

It's not helped by having a useless government with an even worse option waiting in the wings. With all three major parties being economically right-wing and two of them being social authoritarian, we're kinda short on choice.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Aug 28th, 2008 at 10:09:41 AM EST

Re: 3 million workers fear unemployment (4.00 / 2)

And thinking that the solution might be actually fairly easy. Increase salaries so that people have the money to spend. Reduce top salaries and with the left over employ more people so more people can earn money that can be circulated.

Don't know, I am not an economist and it might just be a, as we say here, Milchmädchenrechnung (Milk maiden accounting). :-)

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Aug 28th, 2008 at 10:14:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 3 million workers fear unemployment (none / 1)

I'm finding it difficult to avoid making some lewd comment about accounting for all the milk maids. I shall resist.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Aug 28th, 2008 at 10:15:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 3 million workers fear unemployment (none / 1)

Don't you know Keynesianism is passé? We're all monetarists now - or something.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Aug 28th, 2008 at 10:18:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 3 million workers fear unemployment (none / 1)

A huge government programme of affordable rent social house building would help. Not privatised, not contracted out, but people directly employed to build houses of the type needed in the places where need is greatest.

but ever since thatcher sold off the council houses, low waged accomodation opportunities have been wrecked and the labour party are too scared of the Daily mail to do what is necessary.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Aug 28th, 2008 at 10:20:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 3 million workers fear unemployment (none / 0)

Yes, but that's not going to solve the problem. It'll just soften the blow. At the end of the day, it's the same story as America, but with even higher household debt levels and an even greater fall in house prices needed to bring real estate back into the realm of sanity.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Aug 28th, 2008 at 10:32:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 3 million workers fear unemployment (none / 1)

Yesterday there was some panicky story or other in one of the London free commuter newspapers. Roughly, the average price of a property in England (don't ask how that average is computed for all properties in all of England...) was about £180k and now that lenders are requiring 40% down for a mortgage, the average (don't ask) borrower would need to save up "two years' take-home pay". So we're talking about an "average" property value of 5 years' take-home pay for the average borrower. Ouch.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Aug 28th, 2008 at 10:36:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 3 million workers fear unemployment (none / 0)

That's not surprising. It's closer to ten to twelve years' pay in London (median income ~GBP30,000 vs median house price GBP300-350,000).

Absolutely insane.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Aug 28th, 2008 at 11:04:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 3 million workers fear unemployment (none / 1)

What is a sane ratio? Assuming you allow 3x take-home pay for the loan value and you require 40% down payment you get the current "average" figure of 5x take-home pay for the property value.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Aug 28th, 2008 at 11:17:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

3 million workers fear unemployment | 12 comments (12 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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