European Tribune

Monday Open Thread

by Jerome a Paris
Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 10:20:02 AM EST

Are you going to be bailed out today?


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I made it back to the office for my meeting with 2 minutes to spare!  Thanks for the lift this morning!

Thanks to everyone for a great weekend. It was so cool to meet people who I hadn't met before and to see others again.  I'm not in this evening so my photos will have to wait a day or two before I can post.

Back to the real world again...

Ad astra per aspera

by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 10:27:39 AM EST
But I have just heard from Izzy, who missed her plane because of an impromptu strike on the train to the airport. Thankfully, she has been able to change her ticket to a flight tomorrow morning, and we'll get to enjoy her company one more evening.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 10:35:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What a thing to happen!  I'm glad she'll get back tomorrow, and as you say, an extra night in Paris is no bad thing.

Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 10:40:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
unless you've spent the whole time on a striking train.

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 10:42:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
France is so much fun :-)

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 10:44:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Heh. My worst experience with customer service was at CDG. There was an intense flash storm which knocked out the RER on the way. They sent shuttle buses, but it delayed things and by the time I got to the counter it was only fifty, yes 50, minutes to departure. No go they said, one hour minimum. I argued, but they were firm. I asked to be put on the next flight, nope - you need to buy a new ticket, at the outrageous last minute price. I declined and went over to customer service. Same response. Fifteen minutes of arguing later, with me barely restraining myself from screaming, they finally agreed  to give me a spot on another flight, for a mere service charge of a couple hundred francs (this was a while ago). In the meantime a large line had formed, with considerable confusion going on with the other customer service agents. It turns out that the Air France customer service office in the international departures area had zero English speakers.  Oops. I ended up half volunteering/half dragooned into spending the next hour and a half as a translator. That and pacifier, since they tried to extort the price of a new ticket from every single person, and some didn't manage to restrain themselves from screaming and cursing, whether in English, their own language, or both, as applicable.

The French living up to every negative stereotype. Which is very rare in my experience, and I've been to France, hmmh, I guess in the literal sense of crossing the border and back it would be hundreds of times.

by MarekNYC on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 11:06:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Air France used to be (and I'm thinking back to the '70s and '80s) the most appallingly rude, obdurate, hopeless customer service outfit imaginable. I believe they've got better since.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 12:09:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This was in the late nineties.
by MarekNYC on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 12:15:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I would second that: the flying Quai d'Orsay, they were nicknamed. Except that the folks at the Quai d'Orsay actually know a thing or two about diplomacy...

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
by Bernard on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 04:24:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I once flew with them from Paris to Quebec. I couldn't open the bottle of wine, as the seal was broken. When I asked the flight attendant for help, you could see the expression of contempt for the stupid American who couldn't open a bottle of wine - until he couldn't open it either...
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 12:21:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
but they have become really good in recent years - lots of genuinely friendly and helpful people. And they don't all know at first that I have my big shot frequent flyer card!

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 01:55:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Good to hear. This was like walking into a bad American parody of French people. "why should we speak English, it's not our problem if people don't speak French. You Americans think everybody should speak English, I've never met one who speaks a foreign language'. Huh? What language do you think we're speaking here? Not to mention the fact that the majority of people I was translating for weren't native English speakers. That conversation came as a result of my only one quarter joking suggestion that if they can't be bothered to hire English speakers, they should pay me for my time, or at least wave the damn service fee they charged me. Plus the fun  constant refrain that people should get to the airport on time, and if not pay the price, regardless of the fact that the fricking train to the airport had decided to get stuck halfway there since the rain had shorted out the system.

But I guess I should take Air France off my mental list of airlines not to take unless the price difference is at least a hundred bucks. (the others being Lot and every American one)

by MarekNYC on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 02:57:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They have improved quite a bit over the last ten years (and merged with KLM, and learned some English, and...)
But yeah, their reputation for French snootiness will take a long time to fade...

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
by Bernard on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 04:30:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Did she orchestrate the strike?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 11:49:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually, the strike was mentioned on the radio and TV, but since it was only a handful of commuter lines, it was relegated to somewhere between soccer results and the weather forecast.

A handful of commuter train lines, but it also included RER B, serving CDG airport... Same thing expected Tuesday.

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.

by Bernard on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 04:37:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I got caught up in the strike too, but managed to find one of the few trains out and got to the checkin desk with 3 mins to spare...

Back in rainy Yorkshire after sunny Paris, with lots of good memories...

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 11:55:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I've got great memories as well, came back from warm blue Paris to cold grey Remscheid just as you in Yorkshire, having made my train easily.  For some reason i slept most of the Thalys way, but did get to an hour of drafting comments on a report due soon.

How neat that Izzy gets to stay another day.  Hope you make the most of it.  I also was forced by an airline to spend an extra night in Paris in 1999,  with attendant lovely memories.

Like to thank Helen publicly again for the cool Red Cloud version of the Homeland Security t-shirt.  Photo soon?

You're all amazing.

Skennah Kowa

by Crazy Horse on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 02:07:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Crazy Horse:
For some reason i slept most of the Thalys way



"Ne te courbe que pour aimer..." René Char

by Melanchthon on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 02:47:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Did the British contingent put lemon juice in their Caol Ila?

(They use it on/in everything else so ...  :)

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 02:50:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We would burn them at the stake if they did!

By the way, we came very close to a serious diplomatic incident between UK and France when a waiter brought Helen a beer with a slice of lemon in it...

"Ne te courbe que pour aimer..." René Char

by Melanchthon on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 03:04:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
totally bloody ruined it as well. If I could find the person who thought it was clever to put a slice of lemon in wheat beer, even Cheney would admire the carnage.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 03:29:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
{snigger}

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 03:34:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Izzy, did you have Coca-Cola in your bag?

Does this word "strike" mean what I think it means?

<coded message>

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 12:14:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Are you going to be bailed out today?

Apparently, yes.  By a banker no less.  Just doing my small bit with the table-turning and all that...

Maybe we can eventually make language a complete impediment to understanding. -Hobbes

by Izzy (izzy at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 03:31:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That was a Lucky Strike.

No one got photos of Izzy's shoes?

by Maryb2004 on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 05:19:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some missing shoe photos (and some missing photos for Sven) are on In Wales camera, so they'll turn up in hte next couple of days.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 05:25:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, I should be able to get these photos up tonight.
Shoes in a variety of poses, and of course a photo for Sven. Mwah ha ha ha.

Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 07:34:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, well I had a perfectly pleasant drive through northern france, plundered Carrefour in Calais for cheese and pate and drifted home in a state of serenity.

Even the M25 and the Thames crossing were sane, which for 6:30 in the evening was exceptional.

And back to a lamb shank stew - luvverly {{{SMUG}}}

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 03:32:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
somehow I just could not bring myself to give this comment a 4 just yet.  Im still bitter.

Maybe we can eventually make language a complete impediment to understanding. -Hobbes
by Izzy (izzy at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 03:43:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yea right. You're in paris and I'm in london. Exactly which of us won ?

But it was a pleasant trip and I have stuff to do tomorrow that couldn't wait.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 03:55:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Just came in the door from my Paris trip. Paris was fun, thank you to all who made it such a great experience! :-)
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 04:09:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 10:29:11 AM EST
Thanks Jerome, for a great week-end and some fine meals.  You seem to be bailing out ET quite a bit...  You have managed to collect quite an eclectic/eccentric/extraordinary bunch of people of people around ET, and hopefully the community will grow to become a real influence for the better in Europe and the world.

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 11:01:37 AM EST
Warning: Best Warning Sign Ever Doesn't Mess With Idle 'High Voltage' Threats
High voltage electrics plus risk of sparky, smoky death plus humorous engineer equals excellent warning sign. I'd keep well away, after reading that.

Follow the link and have a snort.

Somewhere in cyberspace, the ghost of de Chardin is smiling.

by budr on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 11:04:48 AM EST
and looking on from there

Cellphones: Cellphone Use While Pregnant Causes Kids To Go Haywire, Study Says

Pregnant women should probably add cellphones to the list of things they need to avoid, along with alcohol, sushi and cat poo. A giant study that surveyed over 13,000 children found that women who used mobile phones when pregnant were more likely to give birth to kids with behavioral problems.


Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 11:16:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Did they screen for "distracted parenting" as a co-contributor to said behavioral problems?

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (argeezer a in a circle yahoo dot com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 02:23:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There's an even better one in the discussion on that link:

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 11:23:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Interesting set of options. Do not pass go, do not collect £200

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 03:38:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
MSNBC.com | Stocks fall after bank bailout proposal

NEW YORK - Wall Street fell in early trading Monday as investors nervously awaited further news about the government's plan to buy $700 billion in banks' mortgage debt. The Dow Jones industrials were down more than 150 points while the credit markets remained nervous, but not showing the signs of panic that Treasury trading saw last week.

Investors are relieved that federal authorities are taking action to relieve the nation's banks of their toxic assets. But it is not sure yet how successful the plan will be in loosening up the credit markets and propping up the sinking housing market.

Bush administration officials and congressional leaders have been meeting on the rescue plan, the main thrust of which congressional leaders have endorsed.

"Mars, Bitches!"

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 11:37:05 AM EST
BBC NEWS | The Reporters | Robert Peston
Bye bye bulge-bracket
  • Robert Peston
  • 22 Sep 08, 09:43 AM

That the last two bulge-bracket firms standing, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, have become licensed deposit-taking banks is extraordinary.

It is precisely the opposite of what happened after the Great Crash of 1929.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 11:59:46 AM EST
The age of the independent investment houses is over.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 12:02:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The repeal of Glass-Steagall is complete!

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 04:18:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We're all investment bankers now.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 05:30:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Horses and barn doors.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 06:10:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is precisely the opposite of what happened after the Great Crash of 1929.

Is that reassuring?

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 12:04:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Onward to the Great Boom of 2009!

Juan Cole is not happy:

Informed Comment

I have concluded that Americans, who pretend in public to be straightlaced, are in fact rabid masochists addicted to whips, black leather and the application of fists. It turns out that large numbers of people throughout the world are accidentally asphyxiated every year because they need to be choked for maximum pleasure.

The diagnosis of national masochism is the only thing that can satisfactorily explain the poll numbers in the presidential race.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 12:08:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That has been my major question all weeekend....how are they still over 40% ?

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 03:40:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's a short blog so I didn't want to quote it all because of fair use etc. - but basically, no, Peston sees this as a bad thing.

Perhaps I should have left the line about it being the opposite of 1929 because it's the opposite of the Glass-Steagall approach, in.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 12:40:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Just seen a talking head on a news channel telling how the dollar is in freefall against the Euro, he didn't quite say that this of course means that Europe is doomed. He also said that the majority of US small busines leaders who expressed a preference see Palin as the best choice of the four presidential and vice presidential candidates to run their businesses.

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 01:23:42 PM EST
euro up against the dollar: Europe has a problem (as in: it will suffer)
euro down against the dollar: Europe has a problem (as in: it is weak)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 01:53:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
To be honest, perhaps 15 years ago there might have been some sense to that. However, it points to the unimaginative and blinkered view of commentators that they haven't yet noticed that, in a world of considerable non-american economic powers, the USA is not the only market for european hi-tech goods.

After all, the I-35 bridge has always stood, so it always will. The USA is the only serious economic force in the world, so it always will be.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 03:46:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The markets are not happy with the bailout plan.  It's been denounced by everyone from Paul Krugman to Bill Kristol.  I shit you not.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 02:10:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks to a link from siegstate I was able to sent faxes to my former representatives in California denouncing Paulson's power grab, noting that what he was proposing wouldn't work because it didn't recognize the losses in value of the underlying assets and pointing out that our foreign creditors were not going to be fooled by such a scam.  Got through to everyone I tried except Pelosi.  Also sent a fax to Harry Reid.  A fax at least will give them a piece of paper to deal with.  Do ye therefore likewise.

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (argeezer a in a circle yahoo dot com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 02:30:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But it's a panic mode of "we need to do something !! This is something, let's do it"

Given the panic going on do you think there's a chance they'll risk the electoral unpopularity that might come from being seen as against delivering a "solution" ? The fact that it won't work and might even make things worse is irrelevant, this is politics.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 03:59:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There have been bipartisan reports of a voter reaction that is "furious" about Paulson's proposal.  Perhaps they will ignore my faxes and e-mails, perhaps they have some effect in combination with others.  I have to act as though they do.  That could be why the Bush Administration has agreed to oversight and to allowing bankruptcy judges to write down mortgages, etc.  I am going to keep at it, hoping that it at least will help. I don't really see any harm.

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (argeezer a in a circle yahoo dot com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 05:45:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So, are they roaring in disapproval?

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 04:16:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, some of the Wall Street types on Friday thought that all of their sins had been forgiven and Monday morining was Christmas morning.  Some had visions of sugar plums dancing in their heads.  They sobered up today.

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (argeezer a in a circle yahoo dot com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 05:47:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some had visions of sugar plums dancing in their heads.

They always get that on Mondays.  It's from all the coke snortin', glue huffin', and crack smokin' over the weekend.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 05:56:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Has anybody tried to correlate the volatility of the LSE with the quantity of cocaine found in the Thames river ?

Auferre, trucidare, rapere, falsis nominibus imperium; atque, ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 04:39:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hard to separate out from the volatility of urban living, I would have thought ;-)

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 05:23:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
are you arguing for there being more, as bankers drown their sorrows in an orgy of drugtaking? or a vast reduction as they can no longer afford it?

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 05:41:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Seen from another vantage point...

Bloomberg.com: Commodities

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil climbed more than $24 a barrel, the biggest gain ever, as the dollar weakened the most against the euro since January 2001, boosting the appeal of commodities as a hedge.

...

Crude oil for October delivery rose $23.95, or 23 percent, to $128.50 a barrel at 2:23 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures climbed as much as $24.33 to $128.88 a barrel, the highest since Aug. 28.

The October contract expires today. The more-active November contract rose $6.65, or 6.5 percent, to $109.40 a barrel.



*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 02:31:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
$24?

Someone tell me seriously that this price isn't being driven by a speculative bubble.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 03:07:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's the invisible hand in action
by MarekNYC on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 03:09:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Chris Dodd has produced his alternative to the Paulson Plan.  Politico has it here.  Good reviews from Krugman so far.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 03:05:33 PM EST
Obama leads in Virginia by 6 now, according to SUSA (O51-45M), which lines up with the trends in other states and at the national level.  He's also beating McCain like a rented mule in both Iowa (various polls with double-digit leads) and New Mexico (O53-42M, per PPP).

A strong performance Friday would go a long way to shutting this thing down.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 03:28:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hell, even those laughably stupid CNN polls show an Obama surge nationally:

Registered Voters
Obama 51
McCain 46

Likely Voters
Obama 51
McCain 47

The next few weeks are going to be nasty.  Me thinks Grandpa Simpson and his band of Merry Morans must be freaking out by now.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 04:40:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...adding...CNN sez Obama made most of his gains with seniors because of the financial crisis (and perhaps from Social Security being discussed too?).  If Obama closes the gap with old folks, this election's over, and it ain't even gonna be close.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 04:48:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now thats news thats got to make the McCain campaign wince.

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 05:24:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Can you confirm the internals?  I can't find the bloody thing on CNN.

A poster over at Der Orange Platz said White Men had moved to Obama and the Seniors were breaking to Obama.

Gawd.  If true this may be the tipping-point to the run-away.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 06:05:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Erm, there's a story up on Political Ticker at CNN that, I think, had the internals...

...here it is.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 06:07:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
OBeeOnCanOBee: (voice over) Read the Fucking Thread, Moran!

Ok.

Cool.

Nevermind

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 06:08:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Another Virginia poll, with almost the same result:

ABC News/WaPo:

Obama 50
McCain 44

So averaging the two polls for the day from VA, we get O50.5-44.5M.

If Obama's up six in Virginia, I have to believe that he may have finally pulled into the lead in North Carolina, that he's closing the gap in West Virginia, and that Pennsylvania will start looking pretty good soon.

Michigan looks good.  Minnesota looks good.  Wisconsin, I'm sure, will look good when we get numbers.

Senate candidates are booming too.  Good stuff.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 06:05:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If Virginia holds these numbers we can assume the Democratic coalitions in Pennsylvania and Michigan will also hold.

Meaning Obama is the next President of the US and the question now becomes: By how much will he win.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 06:15:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Michigan's holding just fine.  Obama up 8 in tonight's Ras poll, O52-44M.  And Ras's methodology doesn't really allow him to pick up the big swings we've seen in the polls in the last week or so, so it may even be bigger.

I'll be interested to see the next few Colorado polls, because New Mexico's moved a lot -- now a double-digit lead for Obama.  So I suspect Colorado will have moved at least a fair bit.  Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico -- that's a solid win.  Throw Nevada on for good measure.  That's 291.  If we eek out North Carolina, we're up to 306.

Everything seems to be moving in the right direction except Ohio and Florida.  Which is just fine by me.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 06:32:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Going to take a wild swing here: let's assume the younger Cuban community in Dada County goes with the rest of the Latino vote.  That's not going to be easily picked-up by polling but would swing 2-3% from McCain to Obama.  Further assumption: a 1% swing in elderly women (the Palin Affect) from McCain to Obama.

That's a 3-4% switch of votes which translates into a 4 - 8% swing in total votes from McCain to Obama and a very narrow Florida pick-up.

Not saying is it going to happen, illustrating how it could very easily happen and happen below the radar.

 

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 06:46:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Could be.  My honest guess is that we come up about four points short in FL.  It's the only state in which the Reps can compete on the ground, and it's really old.  Love to have it though.


Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 06:51:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bush took Florida 52.10 to 47.09.

My assumptions are that would switch to something like 49/51.  

I agree "Florida is really old" which is why I only switched 1% of the elderly vote.  Really an Obama win comes down to Dade county and the younger Cuban vote.  

Granted my two assumptions are Out There.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 07:21:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I got one for ya: the Humane Society has just endorsed Obama.  They've never endorsed a presidential candidate.  Thank you Caribou Barbie!

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 06:57:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I bet their membership has an age profile that is going to suck a few votes from McCains more favourable demographic groups.

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 07:01:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Exactly, and Caribou Barbie horrified animal lovers.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 07:51:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
LOL

The Gramps and Gidget ticket takes another bullet in the 'Weirdest Election Ever.'

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 07:26:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here is the text:

Humane Society Legislative Fund Endorses Obama-Biden

One of the guiding principles of the Humane Society Legislative Fund is that we evaluate candidates based on a single criterion: where they stand on animal protection policies. We don't make decisions based on party affiliation, or any other social issue, or even how many pets they have. We care about their views and actions on the major policy debates relating to animal welfare.

It stirs controversy to get involved in candidate elections. But we believe that candidates for office and current lawmakers must be held accountable, or they will see the animal protection movement as a largely irrelevant political constituency. In order to have good laws, we need good lawmakers, and involvement in elections is an essential strategy for any serious social movement, including our cause.

While we've endorsed hundreds of congressional candidates for election, both Democrats and Republicans, we've never before endorsed a presidential candidate. We have members on the left, in the center, and on the right, and we knew it could be controversial to choose either party's candidate for the top office in the nation. But in an era of sweeping presidential power, we must weigh in on this most important political race in the country. Standing on the sidelines is no longer an option for us.

I'm proud to announce today that the HSLF board of directors -- which is comprised of both Democrats and Republicans -- has voted unanimously to endorse Barack Obama for President. The Obama-Biden ticket is the better choice on animal protection, and we urge all voters who care about the humane treatment of animals, no matter what their party affiliation, to vote for them.

Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has been a solid supporter of animal protection at both the state and federal levels. As an Illinois state senator, he backed at least a dozen animal protection laws, including those to strengthen the penalties for animal cruelty, to help animal shelters, to promote spaying and neutering, and to ban the slaughter of horses for human consumption.  In the U.S. Senate, he has consistently co-sponsored multiple bills to combat animal fighting and horse slaughter, and has supported efforts to increase funding for adequate enforcement of the Animal Welfare Act, Humane Methods of Slaughter Act, and federal laws to combat animal fighting and puppy mills.

In his response to the HSLF questionnaire, he pledged support for nearly every animal protection bill currently pending in Congress, and said he will work with executive agencies such as the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the Department of the Interior to make their policies more humane. He wrote of the important role animals play in our lives, as companions in our homes, as wildlife in their own environments, and as service animals working with law enforcement and assisting persons with disabilities. He also commented on the broader links between animal cruelty and violence in society.

Obama has even on occasion highlighted animal protection issues on the campaign trail, and has spoken publicly about his support for animal protection. In reaction to the investigation showing the abuse of sick and crippled cows which earlier this year led to the largest meat recall in U.S. history, he issued a statement saying "that the mistreatment of downed cows is unacceptable and poses a serious threat to public health." He is featured in Jana Kohl's book about puppy mills, A Rare Breed of Love, with a photo of Obama holding Baby (shown above), the three-legged poodle rescued from an abusive puppy mill operation, and his political mentor, Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), is the author of the latest federal bill to crack down on puppy mills.

Importantly, Obama's running mate, Sen. Joe Biden (D-Del.) has been a stalwart friend of animal welfare advocates in the Senate, and has received high marks year after year on the Humane Scorecard. Biden has not only supported animal protection legislation during his career, but has also led the fight on important issues. He was the co-author with Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) in the 108th Congress on legislation to ban the netting of dolphins by commercial tuna fishermen. He was the lead author of a bill in the 107th Congress to prohibit trophy hunting of captive exotic mammals in fenced enclosures, and he successfully passed the bill through the Senate Judiciary Committee.

On the Republican ticket, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) has also supported some animal protection bills in Congress, but has been inattentive or opposed to others. He has voted for and co-sponsored legislation to stop horse slaughter, and voted to eliminate a $2 million subsidy for the luxury fur coat industry. But he has largely been absent on other issues, and has failed to co-sponsor a large number of priority bills or sign onto animal protection letters that have had broad support in the Senate.

The McCain campaign did not fill out the HSLF presidential questionnaire, and has also not issued any public statements on animal welfare issues. He was silent during the downed animal scandal and beef recall, which played out during a high-point in the primary fight. Yet he did speak at the NRA convention earlier this year, and is the keynote speaker this weekend in Columbus, Ohio, at the U.S. Sportsmen's Alliance rally--an extremist organization that defends the trophy hunting of threatened polar bears and captive shooting of tame animals inside fenced pens.

While McCain's positions on animal protection have been lukewarm, his choice of running mate cemented our decision to oppose his ticket. Gov. Sarah Palin's (R-Alaska) retrograde policies on animal welfare and conservation have led to an all-out war on Alaska's wolves and other creatures. Her record is so extreme that she has perhaps done more harm to animals than any other current governor in the United States.

Palin engineered a campaign of shooting predators from airplanes and helicopters, in order to artificially boost the populations of moose and caribou for trophy hunters. She offered a $150 bounty for the left foreleg of each dead wolf as an economic incentive for pilots and aerial gunners to kill more of the animals, even though Alaska voters had twice approved a ban on the practice. This year, the issue was up again for a vote of the people, and Palin led the fight against it -- in fact, she helped to spend $400,000 of public funds to defeat the initiative.

What's more, when the Bush Administration announced its decision to list the polar bear as threatened under the Endangered Species Act, Palin filed a lawsuit to reverse that decision. She said it's the "wrong move" to protect polar bears, even though their habitat is shrinking and ice floes are vanishing due to global warming.

The choice for animals is especially clear now that Palin is in the mix. If Palin is put in a position to succeed McCain, it could mean rolling back decades of progress on animal issues.

Voters who care about protecting wildlife from inhumane and unsporting abuses, enforcing the laws that combat large-scale cruelties like dogfighting and puppy mills, providing humane treatment of animals in agriculture, and addressing other challenges that face animals in our nation, must become active over the next six weeks to elect a president and vice president who share our values. Please spread the word, and tell friends and family members that an honest assessment of the records of the two presidential tickets leads to the inescapable conclusion that Obama-Biden is the choice for humane-minded voters.



Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!
by ATinNM on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 08:59:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ARG has Bush approval at 19%.

A collapse of 10 points in one week.  Even the wingers are being to bail.


Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 07:31:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He failed to meet their crazy expectations. Abortion still legal ("threatened" isn't goo enough), porn everywhere, freedom of religion still intact, Mecca unnuked.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 07:44:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And they weren't even able to get the Ten Commandments on the flag.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 08:29:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Another NC polls from Civitas, backing up PPP's dead heat yesterday:

Obama 45
McCain 45

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 08:21:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ARRRGH!

"beginning" not "being"


Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 08:56:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ARRRGH!

"beginning" not "being"

Ah, I thought the "ARRRGH!" was for ARG.  You know, if the monkey with the dart at ARG says Bush's approval is 19%, you're not supposed to believe it.

Could just as easily be 91%.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 09:17:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here's the first difference:
LIMITATION ON AUTHORITY.--
(1) IN GENERAL.--The Secretary may not purchase, or make any commitment to purchase, any troubled asset unless the Secretary receives contingent shares in the financial institution from which such assets are to be purchased equal in value to the purchase price of the assets to be purchased.



A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 04:22:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Further:
SEC. 3. FINDINGS.
Before establishing a program under this Act, the Secretary shall make a finding that such program is necessary--
(1) to provide stability or preventing disruption to the financial markets or banking system; and
(2) to protect the taxpayer.



A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 04:24:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It also establishes an Emergency Oversight Board, a Credit Review Commitee, and monthly reports to Congress by the Secretary of the Treasury.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 04:25:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Krugman is totally right when he says
Very serious stuff -- and a major challenge to Paulson's approach. Treasury should now be required to explain why this isn't a much, much better way to do this rescue.

More when I'm not in a car, almost unable to read my screen.



A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 04:27:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Krugman needs to get an iPhone and stop fooling with those God-awful BlackBerrys.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 04:31:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
McCain invented BlackBerrys, you know.

Right after he invented mud tablets, pointy sticks, and cuneiform.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 05:40:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Right.  According to Bloomberg and Barney Frank, the Dems are basically getting everything they demanded: equity share, loan modification and foreclosure prevention on any mortgages the government buys, compensation limits, more oversight, earlier sunset clause, etc.

Nothing like a good 400-point drop in the Dow to get Bush off his ass, eh?

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 04:28:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Dems getting everything they're asking for and treating Poulson's Putsch as a negotiating position is possibly the most exotic and strange thing to happen this year.

Isn't there a hidden freakazoid downside lurking in the long grass?

I'd guess 'the markets have slumped' means that they'd rather drive off the cliff in a fit of petulance because this new deal includes oversight and responsibility than loot $700bn in free cash and crash the dollar later.

Decisions...

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 04:44:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Except now CNBC says no deal.

(shrug)

The Reps are getting blamed for this.  It's their funeral....

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 04:49:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I thought getting a sensible deal through that quickly was out of character. Where's the drama? Where's the fear and smear?

I'd guess Wall St will crash more tomorrow, the Paulson Putsch will be back on the table, and we'll see how much spine the Dems have.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 05:08:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Bush administration is the lamest of lame ducks, McCain is in the shithouse, and the Democrats are being led by a person with the vaguest hint of a spine - Obama.  Furthermore, a Left-Right Popular Front has formed against the Paulson Plan.  

Ain't gonna happen as she is writ.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 05:53:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

How We Became the United States of France

Now our laissez-faire (hey, a French word) regulation-averse Administration has made France's only Socialist president, Francois Mitterand, look like Adam Smith by comparison. All Mitterrand did was nationalize France's big banks and insurance companies in 1982; he didn't have to deal with bankers who didn't want to lend money, as Paulson does. When the state runs the banks, they are merely cows to be milked in the service of la patrie. France doesn't have the mortgage crisis that we do, either. In bailing out mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, our government has basically turned America into the largest subsidized housing project in the world. Sure, France has its banlieues, where it likes to warehouse people who aren't French enough (meaning, immigrants orAlgerians) in huge apartment blocks. But the bulk of French homeowners are curiously free of subprime mortgages foisted on them by fellow citizens, and they aren't over their heads in personal debt.

We've always dismissed the French as exquisitely fed wards of their welfare state. They work, what, 27 hours in a good week, have 19 holidays a month, go on strike for two days and enjoy a glass of wine every day with lunch -- except for the 25% of the population that works for the government, who have an even sweeter deal. They retire before their kids finish high school, and they don't have to save for a $45,000-a-year college tuition because college is free. For this, they pay a tax rate of about 103%, and their labor laws are so restrictive that they haven't had a net gain in jobs since Napoleon. There is no way that the French government can pay for this lifestyle forever, except that it somehow does.



In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 03:35:34 PM EST
Why "sigh" ? He's totally taking the piss out of the failures of the US in comparison with all the countries they've spent 50 years slagging off.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 03:53:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Exactly as I read it - a back-handed compliment.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 04:16:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
well, like I said in the other thread, it's uninformed, prejudiced, stupid and racist.  I guess it's a compliment that it's possible to be all these things about the French without triggering any reaction.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 04:27:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Jerome, the guy's writing about 103% tax rates and 19 holidays per month.  I'm pretty sure he's mocking the United States for the caricature of France that's been painted repeatedly for so many years.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 04:36:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
it is like with the New Yorkers picture of Obama as islamic fundamentalist and Jerome doesn't get it.

Lich King/Caribou Barbie 08
Pain brings Katharsis
by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 04:39:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At the beginning of the article he says so explicitly:
Put it all together, and the America that emerges is a cartoonish version of the country most despised by red-meat red-state patriots: France. Only with worse food.
But he does get carried a way a bit too much later...
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 04:42:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Carried away a bit perhaps, but I thought it was pretty funny, personally.  Then again, this kind of humor is straight up my alley, and people find me weird.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 04:52:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's exactly how I read it too. Was almost expecting to find an "I fart in your general direction" line inserted somewhere for good measure...

Similar reaction a few years ago when it was turned out that the cheese eating surrender monkeys were actually right about Iraq...

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.

by Bernard on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 04:52:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
For someone that doesn't seem to like France very much, that's a positive article.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 03:59:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Also, there is a serious attempt at irony in there (103% tax rate), even if in the full article, some stereotypes seem reinforced rather than lampooned.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 04:16:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I thought it was pure snark. It's attitudes which are being questioned, not Frenchiness.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 04:45:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Since you all think this is harmless fun:


When the state runs the banks, they are merely cows to be milked in the service of la patrie.

Government milks state-owned companies. We so love those caricatures that show government in a wonderful light


Sure, France has its banlieues, where it likes to warehouse people who aren't French enough (meaning, immigrants or Algerians) in huge apartment blocks.

The French are uber-racist.


Mitterand's nationalization program and other economic reforms failed, as the development of the European Market made a centrally planned economy obsolete.

Except it did not fail, and it did not make planning obsolete. But hey, let's keep on repeating it, it will be true.


The Rothschilds got their bank back, a little worse for wear.

Tha nationalisations saved most of these banks from collapse, then.


These days, France sashays around the issue of protectionism in a supposedly unfettered EU by proclaiming some industries to be national champions worthy of extra consideration -- you know, special needs kids