European Tribune - Sunday Afternoon Open Thread

Subheads are as tricky as haiku. Headlines are easier - just client Rorschach - it's the 'in a nutshell' subheads that require endless distillation. And no, it's not anything I could research. Sadly.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 01:27:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday Afternoon Open Thread (4.00 / 4)

Keep going - you'll have another 980 in no time ;-)

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 01:27:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday Afternoon Open Thread (4.00 / 3)

Start with the visual and use that for inspiration.

Such as:

Buy this junk or our Sales Staff WILL call.

Madness takes its toll. Have exact change ready

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 02:49:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nice sig...But we're frikking with you (Nordic humour). It actually means "I could kill a wee malt whiskey, I'm a typical Dem"

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 03:39:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Awhh, give us another chance and you'll have it done in 10 mins....

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. --Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 05:28:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's done. Not brilliant, but serviceable. My watchword.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 05:58:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

not good, but good enough?

Give a politician an inch, and he'll think he's a ruler

by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:13:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Serviceable (none / 1)

I deal in audiences, Ceebs. I know what turns people on - I just have to decide how far my morals will stretch.

If I were sure I was doing the right thing, I'd always let my conscience be my guide. But my conscience is torn by thousand alternatives.

But come Jérôme's revolution, I will not be taking up arms. Though it is deserved. I will be using words as weapons.

I'm a sleeper. In both the terrorist and Gurdjieffian sense.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:58:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Serviceable (none / 1)

I'm a sleeper. In both the terrorist and Gurdjieffian sense.

in the School of Economic Science sense? 8-O

Give a politician an inch, and he'll think he's a ruler

by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 07:39:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Serviceable (none / 1)

No. In the School of Are you feeling lucky, punk, sense.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 07:45:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Serviceable (none / 1)

thank god for that.

Give a politician an inch, and he'll think he's a ruler

by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 07:59:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That's OK, I just changed my sig line anyway.

Madness takes its toll. Have exact change ready

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:32:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You wanna me cum over dere an teach you some finnish, hombre?

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:59:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I have no idea what you are referring to.

:-þ

Madness takes its toll. Have exact change ready

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 07:38:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Don gimme none o' that Cyrillic shit, baby - you knows that to which I iz referring.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 07:48:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

All meant in good humor. No offense intended.

While I have your attention, note the 'Head's Up' I just posted, below.

Madness takes its toll. Have exact change ready

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 07:53:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You tawkin Taos homes, boy? How come a white boy gwine wid dis green shit?

Oh sorry, I picked up Beverly Hills Cop numero uno tonight at Filmtown, and Axel Foley has temporarily invaded my persona. Not only that but my black slang dates back to the skiffle era, if not before.

I can do you a very good Rauma Finnish accent, but the subtleties would be lost here ;-)

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 08:19:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yep.

All us folks in these hyar parts done be goin' green.

Madness takes its toll. Have exact change ready

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 08:39:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Campaign News (none / 0)

Tracking Polls:

Ras
Obama 50
McCain 44

GOS/R2K
Obama 50
McCain 43

The R2K poll also had Obama up 51/42 last night, which would be his best one-night total yet, if I'm not mistaken.

Gallup hasn't released results yet, but one of their guys went on MSNBC this morning with news that Obama's lead has expanded to 8 points. That, depending upon the Diageo/Hotline poll, puts Obama's average lead at 7 points for the day, up from 5.5 yesterday. Still gaining a bit over a point per day, and it might even be accelerating.

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 11:44:02 AM EST

I am beginning to get the feeling that the polls are just beginning to show suggestions that the poll gap is widening slowly but surely. The phoney pre-convention war is done and the convention reactions are sorted.

Palin started well but has flamed out badly dragging McCain down.
Biden is beginning to be used well whilst on a short leash.
McCain has begun to do badly now he's having to answer questions instead of just throw inanities at fans. Nobody liked his behaviour at the first debate where he looked annoyed all the time and has apparently done himself no favours in an interview with Stephanopolous this morning. He looked ridiculous last week and is beginning to have to paddle uphill just to stay in contact.
Obama isn't doing great, but he doesn't have to. He just has to avoid potholes and is doing that with ease. He didn't have to land a blow on McCain, he just had to avoid leading with his chin. Easy...job done.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 12:04:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Because of the nature of tracking polls, it might well be the case that Obama's lead is growing at a fairly brisk pace and will simply take a few days to show. If Gallup is right, it sounds like Obama is going to come close to the record (3 or 4 points for John Kerry) for a "debate bounce," and he may even beat it.

We'll find out Tuesday when all polling will be post-debate.

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 12:14:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't think it's a post debate bounce, it seemed to me it was beginning from tues/wed. The debate response may accelerate the trend, but I just get a feeling from what I'm seeing I'd call "america has made up its mind" and it's not looking good for McCain. He's now in one of those places where nothing he tries goes right and the more desperate he is to change the game the worse things get for him.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 12:33:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well, Obama's rise has been going on for two weeks now, slowly and steadily, so I don't think we can really point to anything. But you're right: McCain seems to be throwing gasoline on the fire. The more he and Palin do crazy shit, the more Obama goes up.

McCain's also hurting badly in the money fight. $84m is a lot of money for McCain. But the Obama base could conceivably raise that in a month, especially given how the growth in his donor base seems to be accelerating. Hell, Obama's going to spend half that much in Florida alone as they ramp it up for the final stretch.

And the RNC's going to see its donations dry up if Obama starts crippling McCain, which means the ground game -- what little of it they have (and what little they have is almost all in Florida for some reason) -- will collapse. Their senatorial and congressional committees are already in dire straits, financially. If the RNC's cashflow starts disappearing, they're going to be defenseless.

They just poured $750k into Indiana. Yes, Indiana. A state Bush won by twenty points.

You can see how things start piling on them in one state after another.

And I'd imagine Obama will likely re-enter Missouri and maybe even Georgia or Montana if things really start moving. At some point, if this continues, too little money could combine with being too spread out, and Obama would simply bleed them to death.

The pundits are, so far, spectacularly wrong. Obama has redrawn the map. And it's starting to show finally.

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 12:47:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Of course he's redrawn the map. FiveThirtyEight has the 'identical map to 2004' scenario at 0.0%. It's quite obvious that Obama - even in bad weeks - is doing better in a lot of states than Kerry. But also not as good in one or two (New Hampshire, mainly). The pundits are stupid.

One more bit of new CW: McCain gets two more shots at winning this, and it will be on territory that's bad for him. Of course expectations for McCain will be lower, but expectations management doesn't matter now. He needs to land a knock-out either in the second, or preferably in the third debate and needs to outperform Obama in both.

And you know, this is a guy who just is not interested at all in domestic issues. In McCain's case, that tends to show. Eehm... understatement. It tends to bleed through the screen.

P.S. John McCain: Stuntman. Or John 'Stunt' McCain. How does it sound? McCain's ability to do anything ground-changing outside of the debates should by all rights be dead now. News media = still bad, but not '04 swiftboat-era bad anymore. It helps that McCain has very bad taste in stunts.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 04:11:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

John McCain, Stuntman - NJVoices: Jim Dooley

Eh, nothing new of course. Oldest reference I could find in 2 minutes:

Senator McCain has just now pulled a political stunt, and is making no bones about it. Such it is, such is the man, such is the state of American politics on the big stage of political theater. We have something to marvel over for an hour.
It is in the nature of stunts that they appeal not to reason but to our sense of wonder. Holy smoke, did you see that? What the .... was that?
We are a people who have been made by Hollywood, comic books, and the boob tube, so grabbing our attention with a stunt is not as easy as it once was. We present ourselves lately as a different kind of rube. Generally speaking, it is reality that knocks us for the loop, though usually not for long and without much effect. Before long we are back to our usual entertainments. But to give McCain his due, he has pulled off a good one that featured plenty of risk. The question is for how long will it play.

That was after the Palin pick. And now for your Hollywood reference.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 05:24:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

OH NOEZ!!! (4.00 / 2)

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 05:53:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OH NOEZ!!! (none / 1)

That's a joke, right?

I never know anymore.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 05:56:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OH NOEZ!!! (4.00 / 5)

see Sarah Palin pictures

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:02:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OH NOEZ!!! (4.00 / 4)

Check this out. You really can't make this shit up anymore:

Inside John McCain's campaign the expectation is growing that there will be a popularity boosting pre-election wedding in Alaska between Bristol Palin, 17, and Levi Johnston, 18, her schoolmate and father of her baby. "It would be fantastic," said a McCain insider. "You would have every TV camera there. The entire country would be watching. It would shut down the race for a week."

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:09:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OH NOEZ!!! (4.00 / 5)

cos everyone loves a shotgun wedding right. The bride looking radiant with her bump out front and the bridegroom, flanked by his minders, resplendent in hockey shirt, rhinestone jeans and sneakers shouting "look, I'm doing it okay, you don't have to push"

Ah the happy scene. As traditional an american scene as they come, authoritarianism and forced pregnancy all wrapped up in a small town megamedia bonanza, brought to you exclusively by the highest bid network live in your sitting room.....and now a word from our sponsor

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:18:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OH NOEZ!!! (4.00 / 3)

I'm constantly amazed at the kinds of things conservatives will say out loud. That anyone in the campaign has even considered this is amazing, but to say it out loud is a special kind of stupid.

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:21:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A special kind of stupid (4.00 / 2)

is fit for a lawn sign

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:58:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Poster, but replace the "Doh! (blahblahblah)" with "A Special Kind of Stupid":

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 07:13:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A special kind of stupid (none / 1)

That poster is brutal.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 07:14:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A special kind of stupid (none / 0)

The Aunt Jemima bottles replacing the fighter jets had me unable to get any work done for probably a good half-hour.

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 07:15:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Forgot one for poemless:

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 07:23:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A special kind of stupid (none / 1)

What does the original poster look like?

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 29th, 2008 at 03:01:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The original has the words "Peace is Born of Wisdom" up in the middle, and McCain '08 at the bottom, along with the fighter jets at the top.

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Sep 29th, 2008 at 07:27:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

And that wasn't satirical??

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 29th, 2008 at 07:28:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 29th, 2008 at 07:31:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Surely you've noticed by now that one of the McCain campaign's goals is obviously to render political satire obsolete.

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Sep 29th, 2008 at 08:50:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A special kind of stupid (4.00 / 6)

Hang on, I got more. This one's for ceebs (or was it afew?):

And my fav:

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 07:20:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Damn that was good.

I laughed so hard I nearly crapped in my pants.

Madness takes its toll. Have exact change ready

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 08:00:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

*ROFL* (4.00 / 3)

Holy gravy, you're damn close to killing me here Drew.... It's been a while since I hung limp across my desk with hysterical laughter.

Gold.... pure gold... The Dr. Evil poster is genius....

by Nomad on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 08:21:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The newest GOP 527 speaks out:

Madness takes its toll. Have exact change ready

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 11:57:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Here you go (4.00 / 6)

Give a politician an inch, and he'll think he's a ruler

by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 07:48:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OH NOEZ!!! (4.00 / 2)

Dare I ask: What if young Master Levi doesn't show up to the wedding?

Many...so many...jokes....

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:26:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OH NOEZ!!! (4.00 / 2)

vice president, hunting accident, it almost writes itself dosn't it.

Give a politician an inch, and he'll think he's a ruler

by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 07:53:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Kinda buried it. (4.00 / 2)

nanne:

It helps that McCain hasvery bad taste in stunts.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:20:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What -- the quote at the bottom?

No, Mig, I'm afraid this as real as it gets.

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:06:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No, I had read the excerpts from Couric's interview. I mean the poster.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:41:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh. Well, no, the poster is a joke.

But if they're doing the wedding, the poster is totally believable.

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:55:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OH NOEZ!!! (4.00 / 2)

Have you watched the Katie Couric interview? It has to be seen to be believed. This is like some of the experiences I had in high school when I did not prepare my presentations. Except... worse.

Tina Fey part-literally copied the stumbling lines in the latest Saturday Night Live skit (see this Clemons post). Very effective.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:19:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OH NOEZ!!! (4.00 / 5)

The funniest - or possibly saddest - part is how clearly you can see Couric thinking 'ZOMG!!! Epic W! T! F!'

Only in a more professional and measured way, obviously.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:31:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Did you catch the SNL skit from last night?

I kid you not: Tina Fey used Palin's exact words.

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:56:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OH NOEZ!!! (none / 1)

I saw that.

What can you say? Tina Fey is more credible as VP.

And if she doesn't want to be VP, she could always play one on TV.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 07:05:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Gallup:

Obama 50 (+1)
McCain 42 (-2)

So the consensus among R2K, Gallup and Ras is now O50-43M. The RealClearPolitics average is now up to Obama +4.8, roughly in line with the CBS/NYT poll (50-44) and the Marist poll (49-44) of a few days ago.

My guess is that the regular polls would probably put the race at about a ten-point lead for Obama now.

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 01:26:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If I can count correctly, todays polls are the first to reflect McCain's decision to suspend his campaign.

This is turning into a slaughter.

Madness takes its toll. Have exact change ready

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 02:54:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A slaughter isn't enough. to even begin to unwind this stuff, people should face trial for crimes against the constitution, including half the USSC.

There should be an augean scale clearout

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 03:11:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The entire Bush administration needs to be shipped to the Hague to stand trial for War Crimes.

Not Going to Happen.

Even the "augean scale clearout" isn't going to happen. The US is going to be dealing with Bushies in the Federal Bureaucracy for decades to come.

Most likely for the rest of my life. sigh

Madness takes its toll. Have exact change ready

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 03:27:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

One can hope that enough of them are authoritarian followers that, if their side is defeated and they are left without support, they'll lose their nerve and either quit, or convert.

by Zwackus on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 05:38:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. We don't know if this lead is going to hold up.

Still need ten Senate seats.

If we can hold the ones Nate has us winning, and then add Hagan, Franken, and Lunsford, we'll have made it to 60 if you count Lieberman. I kind of think Obama's going to at least get close enough in NC to allow Hagan to pull it off. And I kind of think Franken's going to pull it off in Minnesota.

Lunsford's race in Kentucky will be tough, but the capacity is there. He ought to hammer McConnell on the economy and Wall Street.

Need Musgrove to come through in Mississippi to get to 61. We already know from polling that it can be done, but it's a damned hard one.

Things are moving though. Watch the race in Georgia between Chambliss and Martin. I think the race tightening there, if it does, will be what tells you we've got a real shot at 60 seats (without Lieberman). I don't think we can win that seat, but a loss in the mid- to high-single digits probably means we get the above ones.

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 03:28:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes, you're right. Even assuming that McCain has dropped over the event horizon, the Senate seats matter as well. Jeez, why is it so hard to win 10 more seats. Repugs should be falling over everywhere.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 03:58:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The second hardest task in US politics is knocking off an incumbent Senator. It is almost impossible. (And Lord knows I've helped try.)

Second, if you look at the map on Pollster.com (here) and look at the solid McCain states (2 Senators per state) that translates into a bedrock of 35 GOP Senate seats with a potential maximum of 40.

There's very little slop available.

Madness takes its toll. Have exact change ready

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 04:20:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Senate races are actually moving even faster for us than the presidential.

Kay Hagan, for example, shot up to a six-point lead in North Carolina while Obama began coming in at a tie or perhaps a slight lead. My guess is that Hagan may be approaching double digits now, and that Obama might -- might -- be seeing something akin to the Virginia numbers from last week.

Certainly if Obama wins the state, I expect Hagan to win handily. All he's really got to do is keep it close enough to the point that he can't drag on her at all. She might even help him get over the finish line.

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 04:28:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes, first round to fully reflect the suspension. First round to reflect one day's worth of polling on the debate. Gallup and R2K are picking up an Obama bounce last night. We'll see if it continues with Ras and Diageo picking it up tomorrow.

If it spreads out to a 10- or 12-point lead, I think we can start talking about a slaughter.

That said, a seven-point win is a pretty big win looking at the last twenty years or so.

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 03:19:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

With the Pacific Coast, New England, and the ACELA states going Obama the national trackers may be skewing higher than a reasonable EV count. Countering this is the McCain dominance in the deep south.

We need to start giving more emphasis on the state polls. Tis there where: rubber meet road.

Madness takes its toll. Have exact change ready

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 03:54:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

We need more state polls from the good pollsters. Ras pretty reliably gets us a poll per week from the big states. SUSA needs to get off its ass. So does Quinnipiac.

Nate's got Obama above 80% to win now, with 325 EVs on average. Florida has flipped, along with Indiana. (That's actually 349 EVs.) North Carolina and Missouri are down to 1.1 and 1.7 leads for McCain, respectively.

Impossible not to love that the incredible trend has continued. Look at this damned thing:

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 04:17:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Did some figuring from the information on the Pollster.com site.

They have:

Solid Dem: 229 EVs.

Battleground:

Colorado (9,) Florida (27,) Indiana (11,) Minnesota (10,) New Hampshire (3,) Nevada (5,) Ohio (20,) Pennsylvania (21,) Virginia (13) for a total of 119 EVs.

Need to tip:

Missouri (11) and W. Virginia (5) for 16.

Outside Chance:

Montana (3,) North Dakota (3,) and Nebraska 2nd Congressional (1) for 7.

Giving an estimated Upper Limit of 371 EVs as of today.

In theory Obama could take Texas (34) and Arizona (10) with a massive AA turnout and if the Latino vote swings hard for a grand total of 415 EVs. But that, as far as I can see is it.

Madness takes its toll. Have exact change ready

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 04:37:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ultimately, I think we're going to get Virginia and Colorado. (I suspect we're seeing the same thing in VA that we saw in the primaries: Slightly underestimated turnout for young people and significantly underestimated turnout and share of black folks.) I think Minnesota, Pennsylvania and NH come home (should look better in all three once we get some more polling).

It gets tougher after that, but that gets us to 286.

I think we're better than 50/50 to take Nevada. That brings us to 291.

The rest -- your guess is as good as mine. We'd need about 75% of the Latino vote to put Tejas in play and balance out the white vote.

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 04:48:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Österreichische Nationalratswahlen 2008

Odds over at 538:

Obama Win: 80.5%
Obama Landslide: 25.54%
McCain Win: 19.5%

Whoa nelly!

Madness takes its toll. Have exact change ready

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 09:29:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday Afternoon Open Thread (4.00 / 5)

First results from the Austrian elections (it's a slaughterhouse!)

Auszählungsgrad 46.96% (17:28)
Partei % Mandate
SPÖ 29,5 58
ÖVP 26,0 52
GRÜNE 9,4 18
FPÖ 18,4 36
BZÖ 9,7 19
FRITZ 2,0 0
LIF 1,7 0

Pretty much none of the cities have reported yet, so the results might yet move up for the SPÖ. Haider's far-right BZÖ seems to be outperforming the polls. FPÖ about level with the polls, might yet drop. Not a good day for the conservative ÖVP, that much is already sure.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 11:46:08 AM EST

So there will be another Grand Coalition with the nationalists as the major opposition. Doesn't sound too comforting.

"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." Sun Tzu

by Turambar (sersguenda at hotmail com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 11:56:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday Afternoon Open Thread (4.00 / 4)

Thanks, and could you repost in my half-hour late FP story?

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 12:28:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday Afternoon Open Thread (4.00 / 3)

(Which is one-third yours anyway)

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 12:29:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Any word on how the 16-18 year old cohort went?

Madness takes its toll. Have exact change ready

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 03:55:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not yet, only fluff stories. According to exit polls, in the age group up until 30 years old the FPÖ came in first, with 25%, before the ÖVP (23) and SPÖ (21). But the 16 to 18 year old cohort is only a small part of that, of course.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 04:30:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Something that bothers me (4.00 / 2)

This is due to expire in 2009.

In other words, that's one more thing the next president of the US will have to deal with.

It worries me. But then, lots of things about the next four years worry me.

More here.

I'd write about this, but I'm kind of lazy today.

by Plutonium Page (page dot vlinders at gmail dot com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 11:56:31 AM EST

Re: Something that bothers me (none / 1)

well, according to that page the agreement is between the USA and the Soviet Union, which means that technically it has been non-operative for 19 years.

I imagine that the process for these talks will very much depends on whether the next President slows down the Czech and Polish missile installations. If he does, then frankly it won't matter. grown ups will be back in charge who can deal with this stuff.

The US has real financial problems and the huge military may become a price it can no longer easily afford. I wonder if Putin's supposed nuclear modernisation is a version of what Star Wars did to the soviets. An encouragement to go broke. I rather imagine that START will expire but the US will signal a we-will-pretend-it-still-works-if-you-will.

Course if McCain gets in, we're probably all dead anyway, but fortunately that's looking increasingly unlikely.

You should have come to Paris. I hear you're a beer person.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 12:29:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Something that bothers me (4.00 / 2)

Russia has spent considerable time and effort trying to get the Bush administration to realize they won't stand for the US putting that stupid, worthless, anti-missile system in Central Europe and to reach a diplomatic solution.

Recently, they've given up and gone for the military solution.

It's going to be up to the new US administration to convince them that the adults are now in charge and to walk this mess back.

Madness takes its toll. Have exact change ready

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 03:02:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Something that bothers me (none / 1)

Long time no see! Welcome back.

Hopefully with a sane person in the White House, START will be renegotiated. But the Russians are not going to just roll over like under Yeltsin - they will have to be given a fair deal.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:39:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's been a nice if cool day here, but probably the last of the year. Weather forecast looks pretty miserable for the foreseeable future.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 11:56:46 AM EST

No, no, no. I am going 'on location' to Ogmore beach with my photography group tomorrow evening. We want good weather. Just for one more day.

Ad astra per aspera

by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 12:27:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday Afternoon Open Thread (4.00 / 8)

Just in: first projection of the Bavaria state election.

CSU (conservatives) 43% (-18!)
SPD (social democrats) 19% (-1)
Greens 9% (+1)
FW (independent conservatives) 10% (+6)
FDP (neoliberals) 8% (+5)
Linke (socialists) 4,5% (+4,5)

Threshold: 5%.

"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." Sun Tzu

by Turambar (sersguenda at hotmail com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 12:08:55 PM EST

Re: Sunday Afternoon Open Thread (4.00 / 5)

that's quite a movement. try painting that into the "europe tending right" narrative.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 12:21:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday Afternoon Open Thread (4.00 / 6)

ARD exit poll of Bayern has the CSU at 43 percent!

That's down from over 60% and the first time sine the 50s that they're getting so few votes...

Participation expected to be lower than 57 percent in 2003

The big winners are the FDP and the localist Freie Wähler. Greens win a little.

SPD remaining hopeless at 19 percent; Left Party expected to be around 4.5 percent (5 percent required to get into the Landtag). Should become an exciting evening for the Left Party.

Story in German, here.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 12:09:02 PM EST