European Tribune

Thursday Open Thread

by afew
Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 10:56:23 AM EST

Get your needles out, here's some thread


Login
. Make a new account
. Reset password

Display:
Yesterday, FatBoy Clarke wrote an article for the UK soft-left political weekly, The New Statesman.

New Satesman - FatBoy Clarke - Time to end "Just William" Politics.

The article is more a defence of the Blairite politics of opportunism, dressed up in a sort of babbling apparatchik-speak that suggest all are to blame for the current woes, except the author. however, the bit that the UK media have seized upon is the closing apragraph.

Blairism as a concept offers little by way of rescue. It is certainly not a guide to action. Equally, however, it is inaccurate and misleading to dismiss as some kind of Blairite rump those who fear that Labour's current course will lead to utter destruction at the next general election.

Similarly, there is no Blairite plot, despite rumours and persistent newspaper reports. There is, however, a deep and widely shared concern - which does not derive from ideology - that Labour is destined to disaster if we go on as we are, combined with a determination that we will not permit that to happen.


As this is somewhat divorced from the thrust of the article, I presume it's just a clever way to get a little publicity for what is, in all other senses, a lightweight self-justification from a pompous and largely discredited politician. He is, after all, known to have hated Gordon Brown from almost the dawn of time. So it is only natural that he seeks to suggest Brown has laid waste to all the good work Blair (and he) did.

However, there is a response in the Guardian today from Neal Lawson, who heads up  Compass, which is slightly more left wing grouping of MPs who are trying for a more liberal left social democratic politics than we're currently getting.

Guardian - Neal Lawson - To change direction, Labour must first decide where it's going

At least Charles has the benefit of having always been sceptical about the leadership qualities of Gordon Brown and he is right to state that we are heading for disaster. But that is as good as it gets from Charles because he goes on to say we need to change but offers few policy clues about what that change means.

Worse than that he seems to disown ideology as the basis of change. And so we end up with a debate basically about personalities while the underlying politics of the party remain as they were - essentially Blairite. We need to remember that Tony Blair was removed from office because his politics were failing. Brown flourished briefly in the summer of 2007 when he first took over precisely because he looked like a change of direction from Blairism. When he started to adopt some of the worse policies and tactics of New Labour he plummeted in the polls. If we are to change direction we need to know where to, why and how. That requires a clear set of values and an organising framework to enact them - an ideology, if you like.

Sadly the article doesn't really discuss much beyond that observation, valuable though that is in itself. He admits there isn't a credible candidate worth supporting to replace Brown, but believes that only a more radical change in policy direction than Clarke could support will be needed to avert the disaster all now expect.
All of which means that Labour is doomed when it goes to the polls and the wilderness years could be long and bloody while the party re-discovers a purpose beyond the mere messianic politics of personality.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 11:09:57 AM EST
Why is it that anytime I pay attention to politics, it boils down to the characteristics of the politicians and NEVER about solutions to DEFINED problems?  At this pace, it will be "stay the course" simply because NO-ONE has described a NEW course.  How about some old fashioned problem solving?

Am I watching the ship sink? Is this how people on the Titanic felt?
by THE Twank (paszeski__aaaaaaatttttt__yahoo.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 11:28:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Politics is tribal, policy is for nerds.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 11:29:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Migeru is back from vacation with a vengeance it seems. ;)

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 11:44:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well it does explain the summer quietness

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 11:48:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, well wait till you're starving your ass off and see who you turn to.  

Am I watching the ship sink? Is this how people on the Titanic felt?
by THE Twank (paszeski__aaaaaaatttttt__yahoo.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 01:06:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now you're being a nerd.

If you don't like the answer don't ask Why is it that anytime I pay attention to politics, it boils down to the characteristics of the politicians and NEVER about solutions to DEFINED problems?

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Sep 5th, 2008 at 05:48:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is not a comment, this is a diary!

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 12:59:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes it probably is in hindsight. I just never think of my fairly stuff as being worth a diary until someone says so.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 01:06:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Withering of Labour

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:22:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Labour is an absolute disaster at this point.  They're the Republicans without the great marketing.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 01:05:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If true, that is sad.

Am I watching the ship sink? Is this how people on the Titanic felt?
by THE Twank (paszeski__aaaaaaatttttt__yahoo.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 01:07:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's true.  They're not as nasty and heartless, but their political standing in Britain is roughly the same as in America, except that Britain's electorate hasn't been hardening for two decades and can still swing wildly to one side or another.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 01:09:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Are you British or a well informed American?  I'm an ignorant American.

Am I watching the ship sink? Is this how people on the Titanic felt?
by THE Twank (paszeski__aaaaaaatttttt__yahoo.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 01:15:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
American, but I studied European politics at university, and studied over in Britain (very) briefly.  I try to keep up with it, although I haven't as much lately with the election going on here.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 01:18:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks afew, you just reminded me, that I still have a plaid that I started knitting a while ago and maybe it is time to get it out again.

I sometimes knit when I listen to music or talks on the mp3 player, keeps my hands busy.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 11:31:53 AM EST
I have no idea how you embed anything other than Youtube, so go to this dKos diary featuring Jon Stewart for mucho hilarity regarding repugnican hypocrisy.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 01:18:08 PM EST
dKos reports that Obama is leading in N Dakota. Translate please

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 01:18:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ignore it.  The poll was done and internal one by a Democratic outfit, so I don't buy it (especially if it was made public, which suggests an agenda).

It was done before Obama's speech, too, I believe, and obviously before the RNC.

Still, ND has been pretty tight the whole way.  About even, which is stunning, given that Bush won it by 20 or 30 points in 2004.  So, given Bush's score, it would be damned impressive if Obama won it.  Astonishing, actually.

But Obama plays well in the Upper Great Plains and the Mountain West relative to other Dems, and a little worse in the Rust Belt (I think), although he's beating Kerry everywhere.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 01:23:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
North Dakota is a sparsely population (~ 667,000) state located exactly in the north central, borders with Canada, of the US.  Primarily settled by German/Scandinavian immigrants it has experienced a steady decline in population due to young, educated, people leaving to find jobs.  The remaining population is white, very religious, rural, and dependent on resource extraction - agriculture, mining, & so on.

The politics are mixed.  ND has been reliable GOP regarding Presidential voting (Bush carried it 67% in '04) but the state has Democratic Senators.

With few Electoral College votes (3?, damnifno) North Dakota isn't important in and of itself but it can be looked at as a 'sample' of how people in the rural, inter-Mountain West are breaking.  

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 01:30:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Primarily settled by German/Scandinavian immigrant

Lots of the German immigrants actually came from Russia, so it's a rather peculiar background.

by MarekNYC on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 01:35:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ya, you betcha.

Off hand, there should be commonalities between North Dakota and rural western Iowa.  Last I checked, McCain was losing that area that, again, went heavily for Bush in '04.  

More support for Drew's conclusion the McCain people freakeing over the internals triggered the Palin nomination.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 01:43:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
GOP convention is a flop so far.  McCain's stagnated in the Rasmussen poll and lost a point in Gallup.  That only includes the Tuesday night speeches, though, which would be the Crypt Keeper, Grandpa Munster and Holy Joe.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 01:20:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Other than the signage at the airport and one blocked highway exit to downtown St. Paul, I couldn't tell that anything special was going on. No local buzz whatsoever.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 01:26:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
True, the turnout in St Paul has blown goats, but it's a liberal city.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 01:35:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Pliis, vas is das meanink - the blowing of the goats?

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:25:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It just means turnout has been lousy.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:38:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Senk yoo. I vill use it at de earliest opportunity in conwersation. I am attracted to the images it creates.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:56:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Attracted?  Should we be concerned?

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:07:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Let's just say ..... nah, I won't say it. :)

Am I watching the ship sink? Is this how people on the Titanic felt?
by THE Twank (paszeski__aaaaaaatttttt__yahoo.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:35:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Goats and Republicans always remind me of this old post from the Rude Pundit.

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
by Bernard on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 04:33:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Gustav canceled Monday.

Tuesday was boring-as-hell, unwatched, and unattended.

I consider, YMMV, National Polls as a 3-day trailing indicator so I'll wait to see the convention impact from the first two days tomorrow.  That also means I think we'll get the first idea about how effective Palin was in gathering support for the ticket on Sunday.  

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 01:37:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Tomorrow will give us our first taste of what to expect, though.  I've little doubt, without watching, Palin's speech energized the GOP base, but I don't know if it did more than that.  And there just aren't that many Republicans left to be had for McCain, since he's already polling near capacity with them.

Did you see the speech?  What was your take as it related to undecideds/Indies/etc?

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 01:50:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The KosKids who aren't hysterical seem to be coalescing around the view that the red meat base loved it, but anyone to the left of the red meat base, including the indies, utterly hated it.

I suppose there are reasons why they're called the base, and Palin's speech revealed exactly what those reasons are.

Viewing figures are interesting at around 21 million, but I wonder how many of those were democrats tuning in for the freak show.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:04:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The focus groups I've seen seem to range from the speech being a wash to being very bad for McCain-Palin.  The Michigan focus group universally panned it.  The Nevada one was split.

Have to be careful of the ones on there who don't seem hysterical, because there's also an overly-calm group at dKos.  The first reaction sounded like they were worried, and the second followed the "pumped the base, lost the indies" line.  My experience is that the first reaction is usually right, but we'll see.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:08:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
McCain is down in the nationals and has lost Iowa and New Mexico.  He can't lose anymore states.  He needs to change the dynamic and a wash in Nevada won't cut it.

I'm wondering what affect Palin will have on the 'Good Government' voters in NE Virginia.  

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:19:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
and here's an interesting survey from Pew:



Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:30:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Palin won't play well at all in NoVa.  The core neighborhoods in NoVa went 66/33 for Kerry.  I have trouble believing Obama will do worse.

I don't know if I buy those CNN/TIME polls, honestly.  If Obama wins by 12 and 15 in NM and IA respectively, he's going to win by 10-12 in CO and 7-9 in NV.  Ohio would be a wider margin than it is, too, and Virginia would probably go blue.

At that point, there's obviously nothing to talk about, hence my being skeptical.  But, then again, if he's up 6 nationally, then maybe those make sense.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:36:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I believe the New Mexico polls.  The GOP party here is fractured, the Hispanos HATE the border fence, and we've had news story after news story relaying the GOP's anti-furriner stuff.

To a wingnut in Wisconsin an immigrant is a Them.  Here they're talking about Uncle Jose.

I can see Iowa as well.  My experience is 10 years old but there are lots of people in Iowa who really care about Good Government, run by competent people.  Grassley is the Poster Child for this group and the GOP needs them to win.

Basically, the GOP can't win either state with the base and they can't win without 'em, either.   The more they push their (damaged) brand the less appeal to the broader swath of voters.


Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:43:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I will never understand how Latinos can vote Republican.  I guess it's slightly more reasonable than black folks voting Republican, but only slightly.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:51:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The effing Roman effing Catholic effing Church sermonized for Bush up north.  Bush ran a strong series of radio/TV ads as well as a direct mail outreach.  Their GOTV was good.  

Kerry didn't bother to work the state - we got 1, ONE! piece of mail from him - and still only lost by ~5,500 votes.  If he'd bother to campaign he could have won it.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:57:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, yes, the Catholic thing would've been my guess, but that'll die as Latinos assimilate.

I think Obama will win NM comfortably.  I'm less sure of Colorado (which would seal the election), although I'm inclined to think he gets it.

What his speech may have done is put the Kerry states in the Rust Belt out of reach for McCain.  Note the RNC is now pouring resources into the Deep South.  They've now admitted North Carolina is in play.  Sounds like Obama may be beating them back to the SC/NC border for now.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:06:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Good.  

The bucks they put into the Deep South - which should be safe for them - the less they have for Florida and Ohio.

Thinking about it ...

Wouldn't that be a hoot if NORTH CAROLINA is the state that puts Obama over the top?

(This election is so strange.)

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:14:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I still have my eye on Georgia.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:20:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
which one?
by MarekNYC on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:22:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The American one, of course.  Why worry about the European one when we have Caribou Barbie to guard against Putin?

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:28:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If the Soviet Union Russia will get those damn tanks out of Atlanta ....

:-)

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:40:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
 There are a bunch of neo-cons in the Republican party, and I'm not referring to the neoconservatives here.
by MarekNYC on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:41:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You've mentioned Georgia before.  As an outsider I kinda have to figure it will only happen when pigs come flying back to Capistrano.  

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!
by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:48:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
are supposed to be entrepreneurial and family-oriented. Thus Republican. (the theory goes)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 05:24:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
All my above stuff said, Ohio might well be a wider margin than the actual O47-45M result presented by CNN.  Could be O51-41M, but could also be M49-43O.  Won't know what to think until I see another poll there.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:53:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Won't know what to think until I see another poll there.

Ain't that the truth.

For me this is the worst time in a campaign.  We've got the previous numbers, lots of stuff be happening, and we don't have much information about the effects.

So I obsess over minutia.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:04:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I want to know where the fuck SurveyUSA is.  They haven't been polling much since the primaries.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:08:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's personal.

They hate you and are trying to get you fired, destroy your relationship, and drive you out into the streets.

Soon, my young friend, you will be wandering Pennsylvania Avenue with a cardboard sign reading:

THE WORLD IS COMING TO AN END?

Yes 4%
No 12%
Undecided 84%

:-D

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 04:30:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here's an interesting tidbit for ya: Gallup says there are only 9 points worth of undecideds left.  Undecideds have been breaking 2-to-1 for Obama.

Say that holds (unlikely) with the last 9%.  The result:

Obama 56
McCain 44

Compare with Abramowitz's model:

Obama 57
McCain 43

Like I said, not expecting it, but I found it interesting.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:13:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A 13/14 point win intimates 400+ EVs, a gain of 20 to 30 House Seats and 10+ Senate seats ...

and the collapse of the GOP into a fringe, nutburger political party for the next decade.

That's is the kind of thing that happens during re-alignment elections.  So it's not impossible.  Interesting, even hopeful, but ... yeah, "don't expect it."

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:38:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not necessarily. Think Reagan in 1984 - twenty point win, +2 in the Senate +16 in the House for the Republicans. Ok, but no landslide.
by MarekNYC on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:47:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, I agree.  That's why "intimates."  

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!
by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:54:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And any kind of terrorist attack that Bush/Cheney et al allow to occur in th US does WHAT to the dynamic?

Am I watching the ship sink? Is this how people on the Titanic felt?
by THE Twank (paszeski__aaaaaaatttttt__yahoo.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 04:03:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not a clue.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!
by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 04:34:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There you have it.  Regardless of everything, ball is in the Repubs court to do as they will.  Fun.

Am I watching the ship sink? Is this how people on the Titanic felt?
by THE Twank (paszeski__aaaaaaatttttt__yahoo.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 04:40:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
(Maybe not the bestest of slogans ...)

If NoVa goes Obama then Richmond is the key.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:45:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Richmond will go for Obama by an obscene margin.  It's the stuff between Fairfax County and Richmond that will decide it.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:49:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Are you talking about the I-95 corridor?

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!
by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:52:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, mostly, although some stuff W of I-95, too.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:54:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Richmond proper, sure, but the suburbs? I always thought that outside NoVa the state displayed fairly typical Southern voting patterns.

There's also the area down by Norfolk which has a lot of people - lots of blacks, lots of military, lots of industry (big, big naval base and shipbuilding area) I have no idea how they vote.

by MarekNYC on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:25:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes and no.  Along the Potomac and the Chesapeake, it's liberal.  The western suburbs of Richmond are conservative, the eastern ones are Tim Kaine.  Like I've said, Richmond is kind of like Atlanta: massive core of Dems, with wingers to the W and moderates to the E.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:41:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I love seeing adults in cowboy hats.  Where else can you look juvenile and asinine and get away with it, other than Halloween.

Am I watching the ship sink? Is this how people on the Titanic felt?
by THE Twank (paszeski__aaaaaaatttttt__yahoo.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:39:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
heh, focks just reported the nielsen numbers for her speech as 37 mill, coincidently the same number obama got.

Peace is not the absence of war -- peace is the absence of fear. Ursula Franklin
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 04:44:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Good.

This thing may be over more quickly than we think.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 06:03:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why do you say that?

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 06:19:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Mostly due to McSame's structural weaknesses and problems as well as the State of the Election.  If the GOP has been forced to send money to shore-up the Deep South, they've got serious problems.

One problem he has solved is enthusiasm.  Palin has done that.  At the same time she cemented her image as Caribou Barbie, gun-totin' Attack Witch of the North.  That's NOT an image that resonates outside of their base.  They can't walk that back.  They can't do much to change it.  They can only nuance it, a bit, while hoping the Obama campaign -- so far the best presidential campaign I've ever seen -- massively screws up their response.  

So they got the base, now what?

McCain can't win with just the base so they have to figure-out a strategy to win back some of the Middle.  Tonight McCain, a lousy speaker, has to feed the enthusiasm of the while winning over Undecideds.  This is unopposed camera-time they've got.  They can put anything out without fear of immediate contradiction.  But what to do with it?

Tune in to find out.

It's apparent Rove is now in charge of the message.  We can be pretty sure the speech is going to be long on attack politics, short on policy politics.  Rove neither knows, nor understands, policy.  OK that's more red meat for the base.  Does it do anything for the Undecideds or convince Democrats?  Not if the Palin response carries across.  Which it should.  Rove is pushing his standard line which everyone has long ago made-up their minds about.  And its been rejected, by and large.

They may be smart enough to bring McCain to the Middle but even there he has to be 'Right' enough to keep the base from thinking he's selling them out and appeal to the Middle.  I don't think it can be done.  We'll see.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 07:18:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This illustrates the above.

At this point, 42% of registered voters say they are certain to vote for Obama, up from 36% immediately before the convention. Thirty-seven percent are now committed to McCain, up slightly from 34%. Thus, with 79% of voters committed to one candidate or the other, 21% are "swing voters" who could vote for either candidate or for a third-party candidate.

<snip>

To some degree, it appears as if swing voters are uncommitted this year because they still have doubts about Obama's and McCain's ability to handle issues that are not their known areas of strength, namely, the economy for McCain and foreign affairs (especially terrorism) for Obama. Thus, both candidates stand to gain support if they can address voters' concerns in these areas between now and Election Day.

Once again it is the Swing Voters who will decide our next President.  

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 07:31:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, but my hypothesis has been all along that a goof chunk of those undecideds are actually soft Obama, thus we see these mini-"pops" for him, spiking to about 50-51%.  My best guess for now is that Obama spikes to that level, and that undecideds split roughly evenly beyond that, with perhaps a slight lean towards McCain.  A 5- to 8-point win for O would be my best guess.

That breakdown on undecideds, given today's 49-42 result, would give you 53-47 roughly.  If they continue going 2-to-1 for Obama, it gives you 56-44.  (I'm stealing these projections from a guy at OpenLeft, for the record, so anything incorrect in that math should be blamed on him, and I take no responsibility.)

54-46 feels like the right result right now.  That'd give Obama the three obvious swing states (Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado), along with likely Ohio (barely) and Virginia (a bit better than barely).

I could be completely full of shit, of course.  MfM's argument about Michigan certainly has some potential merit to it, but I think Obama ultimately gets Michigan by a bit wider a margin than Kerry.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 07:55:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Didn't see it, read it.  That's why I still have a computer monitor sullied by my fist.

(Full Disclosure: I read it until I got a belly-full of her bullshit.)

My take is it was a straight-forward attack speech by a politico with no national standing.  The Right loved it, as they should: it was directed at them.  Outside of that group I don't think it did anything to change the basis and fundamentals of the election.  Meaning it didn't do McCain any good, may have done some harm, and we'll know in a week.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:11:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Meanwhile from bizarro world we have:

Two of these things are not like the other two. But which is which?

Inevitably someone else had thought of the similarities first, hence the photo collection.

Occasional ETer ignatzuk posted some other interesting thoughts about soap operas.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 04:06:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I had it on Tuesday nite, but couldn't bear to watch.  I was in another room paying bills and heard music that sounded like the soundtrack to a '50s Western!  I went back in to see if the poltergeist had changed the channel only to see the same old RCon.  The sound track probably felt like a warm jacket to most of the audience.

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (argeezer a in a circle yahoo dot com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 05:27:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
RTFNUG.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Sep 5th, 2008 at 05:59:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm back from the Twin Cities. I got an Al Franken for senate button at the Minnesota State fair, and I avoided downtown St. Paul for obvious reasons. I ate cheese curds, got some sunburn, and hung out with the family.

Local coverage of the RNC protests were as expected - strong attempts to over-dramatize what didn't even qualify as low level rioting, and interviews with the least articulate protesters the media could find.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 01:24:43 PM EST
Any sense of how the Minnesota Senate race is going?

I can't imagine the message coming out of the GOP convention is playing well in MN.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 01:47:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's going alright for now.  Importantly, Coleman's favorables are apparently down to 38%.  So the opportunity's there for Franken.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 01:56:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not as plugged in as you and Drew, but Coleman has no real draw beyond the "R" after his name. He's about as vapid as they come. At the same time, I don't see Franken energizing the voting populace the way Ventura did in 1998, which was certainly required for victory in the case of Ventura as an independent. Franken has the D endorsement, but as a celebrity candidate like Ventura I think he needs to inject more excitement into the voters than he is. Without even looking at the polls, I assume it will be a tight vote.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:08:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Minnesota polls are all over the place.  See Pollster for a worrisome graph ... but then look at the figures.  A snarky person would comment, "They are all outliers."

:-)

As of now, neither one is winning, but neither is losing.  This looks like a nail biter.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:35:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
1) German media was awash yesterday with the news that "Left Party overtakes SPD". The news is less sensational with the subtext that this result was shown not in a national, but a Saarland state poll - Saarland is the home base of Left Party co-chairman (and former SPD chairman booted by Schröder) Oskar Lafontaine.

Wahlumfragen - Saarland

Institut Quelle Befragte Datum   CDU SPD GRÜNE FDP Sonstige
Forsa stern 1.001
25.08.-29.08.
03.09.2008   37 % 23 % 5 % 7 % Die Linke 24 %
Sonst. 4 %

(Grüne = Greens, Sonstige = Others [those not in the current regional parliament], Die Linke = Left Party)

2) In Bavaria, the Left Party dithers permanently on the verge of the 5% limit. Erwin Huber, the leader of the Christian Socialists (CSU), the Bavarian sister of the CDU, announced a "crusade" against the Left Party entering the Bavarian regional parliament (elections on 28 September)! He used the standard centre-right tactic I was sooo disgusted with back in the Kohl era two decades ago, equating the hard left with the far-right (the extremist parties of the Republicans, DVU and NPD). However, given the SPD's voes, in polls the CSU still looks to barely retain its absolute majority.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:03:14 PM EST
On 1); I'd love to see the SPD being forced to decide between being a junior partner in a Grand Coalition or a red-red coalition, but Red Oskar still has one year to blow his chances.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:06:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Looks like the Linke has come out of nowhere. In the lists from 1999 and 2004 they are not even mentioned. Looks like they are gaining quite a bit of their votes from the SPD. But the CDU seems to be loosing too, compared with 1999 and 2004.

DoDo, what is your hunch for the German elections next year?

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:15:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
By extrapolation of present trends, CDU/CSU+FDP government... But in all German federal elections I have followed so far, extrapolation of trends didn't work, there was always some scandal or stupidity or peformance that changed the chances of one party in a major way. So who knows - maybe Wolfgang Tiefensee will launch a chancellorship bid out of nowhere, maybe Merkel gets personally tainted in a major scandal, maybe a new Ypsilanti government in Hessen and a shock result in Bavaria will double the Left Party vote... or, on the opposite, maybe the SPD will fall apart, maybe the CDU wins supermajority, maybe Koch or Wulff attempt a successful coup against Merkel...

So it's somewhat like guessing the oil price.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:35:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In a dynamic environment statistical trend extrapolation doesn't cut it.  Asymmetrical information: scandals, stupidities, & etc, come from nowhere to radically alter the situation.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!
by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:07:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Go, Oskar!

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Sep 5th, 2008 at 05:50:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ha, just found out the tribtex translate function doesn't work anymore. First time I tried since downloading the new Mozilla.

Any recommendations how I can fix that?

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:31:44 PM EST
Change back to the old Firefox...

You are the third person to have this problem. I failed to find a solution yet. Or, more precisely, it's the same problem if ratings don't work, either (that is: try out if your ratings are registered).

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:38:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem with the old firefox is, I was not able to access ET.
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:41:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have no problems with the ratings.
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:42:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well indeed, you just rated me... Then I don't know. Maybe security settings?

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:46:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Does the Search for replies feature work?

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:48:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is that the one that jumps to the next new comment? then yes that works.
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:48:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, that's what you'll find as lasat menu point when you click Tools[Werkzeuge? Mittel? No idea what it is in German] on top of the Firefox window. The feature that is supposed to look for unread replies to your comments.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:01:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The last feature I find in 'Extra' is translate. :-) but it does not work either.

I do not find any features looking for unread comments.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:27:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hm. Then I think you don't have the latest version of TribExt installed! The old version is definitely not Firefox 3 compatible.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:42:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now I even seem to recall you having said that you won't install it until 'problems are sorted out' or something.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:43:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
When I click on translate it does open a new tab, but it stays blanck.
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:48:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Does the copy function work?
Have a look in
c://Documents and Settings/Application Data/Mozilla/Firefox/Profiles[numbers and letters].default/extensions/tribext@someone/chrome/content
See if there is a file called trtmp.js
Right click on it, and select properties. Make sure it is writable, i.e. not read-only.
by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:30:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
All I can find is trtmp but it has not .js to it and is called 'JScript Script File' and I can not open it.
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:54:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry! I can open it and should be able to write in it.
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:57:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As per upthread, please check your TribExt version.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 04:42:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Okay, just downloaded the newest version. Thanks DoDo and someone for the help.

Should be okay now.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 04:54:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Just tested my ratings-they're OK.

I finally got my computer back this afternoon, and, after one more wtf moment when I discovered it had been returned without a visible/accessible network cable port, I uploaded Firefox 3.000001 or whatever it is, which has got rid of the can't-validate-the-security-certificate messages I'd been getting ever since I uploaded Firefox 3.0

I could be getting on with my backlog of photographs, except that tonight I have to summarise and rewrite a 140 page book to make the language accessible to children who have special needs or who have recently arrived in the UK.

Actually, that job is done.  Scribbled onto 20 pages of A4 while providing a seat for the cat.  I just wish I were a faster typist.  Coffee!

by Sassafras on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 04:49:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Tomorrow's photography blog will have an animals theme.
Be there or have your carpet weed on by a puppy.

Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:55:39 PM EST
should have a proper internet connection tomorrow, not a borrowed one, so will be able to upload.

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 04:27:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How's the moving coming along?
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 04:33:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
well I've a 250 mile round trip on Saturday to pick up a load of stuff from the old house. But that will still leave another trip with a rented van to pick up some of the larger remaining stuff. (Thank god we didn't have someone else moving in straight away so we had to have it all cleared out) I've two rooms sorted out, (the kitchen and  one of the upstairs rooms) so I can start unloading  boxes onto shelves.

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 04:48:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hurrah!

Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 04:42:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Display:
Go to: [ European Tribune Homepage : Top of page : Top of comments ]