European Tribune - Community, Politics & Progress.

Where Zero Tolerance works

by DoDo
Wed Jan 21st, 2009 at 09:34:14 AM EST

Thanks to increased passive and active car safety, the spread of roundabouts, and more police controls, road traffic deaths are declining across Europe for over a decade (see Eurostat). However, in deaths per million inhabitants, there are strong differences within the EU, with Greece and the 10+2 new EU members minus Malta well above the rest of the EU-15.

The EU called on governments to address the problem. The Hungarian government promised a reduction of 30%. The initial success was spectacular: last year, traffic deaths fell by more than 20%.

This fall was clearly the result of two new policies against speeding and drunken driving.

A year ago, in addition to increased fines and more controls by police on the streets, Hungary introduced:

The policy of "objective responsibility". Speeders not fined on the spot often got away when they were billed as car owners by claiming that it wasn't them who drove, but some unidentified family member or friend. In the new system, the car owner was made responsible: if the driver can't be identified, s/he'll pay.
The policy of zero tolerance for drunken driving. In most of the East Bloc, the limit for blood alcohol content was zero. When limits were raised to West European levels (usually 0.08%; see Wikipedia, also see earlier Salon discussion), drunken driving accidents increased, and a backlash started. At the start of 2008, Hungary not only returned to 0%, but the new rule is that people lose their drivers' licence on the spot if both the breath test and subsequent blood test prove positive.

Indeed, while overall, the number of road traffic incidents decreased by 6.9% (from 20,635 to 19,217), that of accidents caused under the influence of alcohol fell 20%, and accidents caused due to speeding also fell strongly.

The government said it wants to cut traffic deaths by 300 (31%) this year, with two additional measures:

hundreds of fixed speed controllers are being installed along roads (including Big Brother-ish average speed calculating systems at two ends of a road),
crunching statistics (why did they get that idea only now?), police identified 300 accident hotspots, which will be augmented with new tables and such.

Here is a graph showing road traffic deaths per million inhabitants in all EU countries. (I wonder what's the story in Portugal, with the most consistent and spectacular decrease over the entire period Eurostat had data for.)

As a commentary, I think road traffic incidents are a good example of both the failure of Libertarian ideas of self-regulation, and of externalities (drivers don't just endanger themselves).

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Where Zero Tolerance works | 37 comments (37 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Seed comment/Tip jar (4.00 / 2)

Given the negative connotations of "zero tolerance" more recently, an off-topic historicalpoint: it is my understanding that "zero tolerance" was turned from a sensible policy invented by a New York City police chief (get people for smaller violations, too, hoping to net harder criminals by the way and have an educational effect) into a standard-fare authoritarian policy "owned" by New York major Giuliani (harsh punishments for everything, random police controls that seem to focus on certain groups of people, leniency towards police brutality).

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Wed Jan 21st, 2009 at 09:39:36 AM EST

Zero Tolerance (4.00 / 3)

It's a matter for criminologists, I think. There are benefits to having a large chance of being caught and having certainty that a price has to be paid. The 'broken window' hypothesis is also basically correct.

On the other hand you see zero tolerance being used to destroy communities by taking a large part of the male and a substantial part of the young female population away into prison for victimless crimes.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Jan 21st, 2009 at 11:38:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zero Tolerance (4.00 / 3)

Zero tolerance works for many things, because people that won't do something illegal if they are the only one will do it if someone else does it.

If there is litter on the ground, people will throw more.
If a car goes onto a previosuly empty bus lane, it will be followed by several more right away.
If enforcement of traffic laws is random and patchy, people will be unhappy to be caught, and won't change their behavior.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Jan 21st, 2009 at 02:31:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zero Tolerance (4.00 / 2)

taking a large part of the male and a substantial part of the young female population away into prison for victimless crimes.

The authoritarians transformed "zero tolerance" from an enforcement of existing laws into the implementation of new Draconian laws and regulations.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Wed Jan 21st, 2009 at 03:06:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Seed comment/Tip jar (4.00 / 2)

In the specific case of NY, Giuliani also tried to apply his "zero tolerance" to bicycle riders and pedestrians, which resulted in less enforcement of laws for drivers. I can't find the figures, but I seem to recall that this resulted in an increase in the death rate from traffic accidents, that more or less balanced out (at least initially) the reduction in the death rate from murders.

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Wed Jan 21st, 2009 at 12:31:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Portugal (none / 1)

When last I drove in Portugal - many years ago - there seemed to be a policy of only overtaking on blind corners and a sense that you had a right to overtake any time you wanted to. If that has changed, I'm not surprised the death rate has plummeted.

PS - I find the graph impossible to follow. Do you have a table with the data?

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Wed Jan 21st, 2009 at 10:18:25 AM EST

Re: Portugal (none / 0)

The table is the Eurostat table linked in the above-fold part.

Do you see x marks on some lines? I too thought the graph is hard to follow, and updated it by adding marks to some of the lines with too many similar colours. If you see the previous version, reload the page. If it's the current version... any suggestions on what I could add? Maybe the country names next to the lines on the graph rather than a separate box?

(Either way, I'll do that only oncew I get home, say around 18h CET.)

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Wed Jan 21st, 2009 at 10:24:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Portugal (4.00 / 1)

The table is the Eurostat table linked in the above-fold part.

(Except for Hungary 2008, which I calculated.)

Perhaps it helps until I'm back: the bright light blue line in the middle (Belgium) is a good separator, all other EU-15 countries except Greece are below it, all new members above (at least in 2007).

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Wed Jan 21st, 2009 at 10:28:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Many thanks (none / 0)

The table shows a relatively consistent downward trend everywhere except Lithuania, and Western Europe generally being much better than Eastern Europe.

The reduction in Ireland has been achieved though stricter laws, stricter enforcement, harsher penalties (penalty points), more consistent enforcement, greater public education and advertising programmes, better road design, driver training and vehicle quality/reliability inspections. Attitudes to drink driving have changed remarkably.

Given that this has been achieved despite greater car utilisation and traffic density it has been a good achievement - although not yet as good as some other countries.

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Wed Jan 21st, 2009 at 07:09:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Portugal (4.00 / 2)

Congratulations! You survived!

Actually i guess the case in Portugal is one of making it a sort of national cause. And a cause for national shame, since, as you can tell by the graphic we were at the very top of the chart to begin with.

From advertising campaigns to very strict laws and heavy fines it all worked together. Traffic accidents always make the news, as well as police control operations during heavy traveling periods, like Christmas and Easter, or long weekends.

Having said this, the sense around here is that still too many people die on the streets and roads, and too many people have reckless and irresponsible behavior.

Being caught driving with amounts of alcool that should induce coma can still make you a sort of popular hero, in some parts.

by Torres on Wed Jan 21st, 2009 at 01:11:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Portugal (none / 1)

I updated the graph again; hope it is sufficiently decluttered this way (with country names next to the lines, and the colours of some lines changed manually).

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Wed Jan 21st, 2009 at 01:48:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Where Zero Tolerance works (4.00 / 2)

and that is nothing compared to what goes on in Malta

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Jan 21st, 2009 at 11:13:27 AM EST

Re: Where Zero Tolerance works (none / 1)

The Danish graph is a story in and of itself... One of the first things the Fogh government did when they came to power in the winter of 01/02 was to raise the speed limits on a lot of highways.

If you eyeball the line for Denmark, you'll see that it bottoms out around 02/03...

I haven't run the numbers, so I can't be sure that it's signal rather than noise, though.

I'd quibble with your topmost graph, though. One outlier is not evidence. I have no doubt that in a few years, we will in fact be able to see a trend, but we can't yet.

- Jake

"Terraforming your own planet to make it uninhabitable hardly counts as epic win." - ThatBritGuy

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Jan 21st, 2009 at 11:26:47 AM EST

Re: Where Zero Tolerance works (none / 1)

You should not rely only on empiric methods, but as well on analysis. If you have a change of the situation, that from other analysis makes a lot of sense, that it will have an effect, an outlier is something quite different.
Or in other words. Frequentist methods sucks, compared to Baysian approaches, that figure in a priori probability densities. I take dodo's graph with the explaination any time as a evidence that the methods proposed in Hungary work.

Nevertheless:
Freie Fahrt für freie Bürger ;-p

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Wed Jan 21st, 2009 at 01:24:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Where Zero Tolerance works (none / 0)

That's true. But I'd like to have something a little more solid to put into my prior than a general belief in the value of speed limits :-P

I'm quite sure the conclusion is correct, but the argument would be improved by drawing on similar experiences from other countries.

- Jake

"Terraforming your own planet to make it uninhabitable hardly counts as epic win." - ThatBritGuy

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Jan 21st, 2009 at 02:03:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Preemptive quotation (none / 0)

Just preemptively as you seem to develop a theoretician like focus on formalisable argument over better, but only qualitativly arguments, I cite N.N. Taleb's The Black Swan:

When mathematicians say "handwaving" [and the idea that speed limits help reduce traffic victims is certainly handwaving] disparagingly, about someone's work, it means that the person has a) insight, b) realism, c) something to say , and it means d) he is right, because that's what critics say wehen they can't find anything more negative.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Thu Jan 22nd, 2009 at 04:53:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Preemptive quotation (none / 0)

Bah.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 22nd, 2009 at 05:31:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Where Zero Tolerance works (none / 1)

Freie Fahrt für freie Bürger ;-p

You too would have made a nice Grand Coalition with onetime ET regular Ritter :-)

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Thu Jan 22nd, 2009 at 02:32:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Where Zero Tolerance works (none / 1)

Statistical variation depends on sample size. This is apparent on the second graph: check the lines for the Baltic countries or Luxembourg. For larger countries, you have a signal not noise.

The large bump you see for Slovakia is the result of the April 1997 general speed limit raise (50 to 60 in cities, 110 to 130 on highways).
In the Czech Republic, several road safety measures were implemented until 2006, when they switched to a points system, too. In 2007, the new government even talked about raising the limit on highways to 160 km/h...
The 22% drop in the Netherlands in 2004 doesn't seem to have a single reason, but it seems a major fuel-efficient driving campaign combined with the peaking of roundabout construction that year.
For Hungary, the next biggest change, the steep rise in 2001-2002 coincides with the introduction of the points system in an (initially) lenient form and a raise of speed limits by 10 km/h.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Wed Jan 21st, 2009 at 03:02:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oops (none / 0)

That was the Slovenian graph I was looking at, not the Danish...

Ah well, confirmation bias can be fun while the music is playing...

- Jake

"Terraforming your own planet to make it uninhabitable hardly counts as epic win." - ThatBritGuy

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Jan 21st, 2009 at 05:53:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oops (none / 0)

Heh... on the other hand, that uptick in 2007 is quite spectacular, even considering the size of Denmark's population -- could you check if it had a specific reason? (And was it discussed in Danish media?)

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Thu Jan 22nd, 2009 at 02:34:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oops (none / 0)

the size of Denmark's population

Erm, having checked, it's not that small...

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Thu Jan 22nd, 2009 at 02:35:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oops (none / 0)

I don't recall anything from the news. But I don't pay much attention to the car side of the infrastructure anyway. Tends to do bad things for my blood pressure.

- Jake

"Terraforming your own planet to make it uninhabitable hardly counts as epic win." - ThatBritGuy

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Jan 22nd, 2009 at 03:58:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oops (none / 0)

:-)

Two weeks on the train to Salzburg, I overheard an exchange between an older passenger and the young conductor (both Austrians). The passenger praised the train's smooth ride and made some comparison with a car, to which the conductor replied cheerfully but with emphasis, "I wouldn't know - I don't drive a car!" Kindred spirit, I thought.

For me, the interesting part of this story is the regulation/self-regulation aspect. (Plus, enforced and/or lowered speed limits on roads will make trains more competitive :-))

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Thu Jan 22nd, 2009 at 06:15:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oops (none / 1)

Yeah, that's my favourite response when asked how to find a parking spot in Copenhagen: You don't. You go by train.

- Jake

"Terraforming your own planet to make it uninhabitable hardly counts as epic win." - ThatBritGuy

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Jan 22nd, 2009 at 08:39:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Where Zero Tolerance works (none / 1)

Swedish road authorities has worked with a "zero vision" for a decade or so now. That is zero deaths in traffic.

Sweden has had a 0,02% limit, which is low enough that you should not drive if you are hung over. And certainly not if you have had anything to drink. This has been longstanding policy.

The main tool has been identifying and rectifying statistical death traps. The focus on building roads that are safer (combined with existing sobriety laws) has dropped death rates significantly (60 to 50 is significant).

There are high numbers of speeding cameras along the roads (that snap if you speed) but even higher numbers of speeding camera props. There are also measurers (without cameras) that measure the speed and if you speed a sign flashes to tell you so.

I think what is left in Sweden are some drunk driving accidents, the winter accidents (slippery road, bus or other large vehicle gets out of hand) and the fall-asleep-at-the-wheel accidents (though their death toll on bystanders in the other lane has been cut through sturdy railings in the middle of the road).

Now there are discussions on the big brother type solutions also, different ways to have permanent control of vehicle positions. They will not help any of the aources of deaths left. But as general surveilliance seems to be standard measure wheter it works or for the given reason, I think it will be introduced.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Jan 21st, 2009 at 02:24:39 PM EST

France (none / 1)

This is one of the bright spots of the second Chirac presidency: he made traffic accidents a serious issue, and implemented tougher and consistent enforcement of some kinds of violations. A big plan of automated radar speed controls (with public locations, and signs on the road forearning of their presence) worked because enforcement was automatic and not dependent on what your access to elected officials was. Systematic ad campaigns also get the message through.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Jan 21st, 2009 at 02:28:37 PM EST

Re: France (none / 0)

Regarding the measures for next year, a Hungarian police representative also stressed to media that the new breath alcohol detectors register every measurement without an option to delete them, thus patrolling policemen can't get away with pocketing the fine. (Which was a bit funny to hear from a policeman...)

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Wed Jan 21st, 2009 at 03:12:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Czechs are blaming trees for road deaths (none / 1)

Some puzzling news from today in the Czech Republic (don't have access to the full article, alas):

http://praguemonitor.com/2009/01/21/trees-alongside-roads-200-dead-last-year

It is worse elsewhere, but the tendency here to go bumper to bumper at all speeds is beyond reason. I've tried asking what goes on at driving school but never get a straight answer. One suggestion is that the big new Skodas like to dominate the old Skodas, but who knows.

I was keenly aware of the go slow road marking propaganda on Hungarian motorways this summer - for me it was good reinforcement, but keenly aware too that for others it's an incentive to get aggravated and do the opposite. I've only been done once for speeding in 17 years, and that was in Lithuania. It was a cold, dark night, north of Vilnius, on a country highway, and our car was alone, with the exception of one police car

by MaBozza (greig.aitken AT gmail.com) on Wed Jan 21st, 2009 at 05:06:03 PM EST

Re: Where Zero Tolerance works (none / 0)

Are there statistics of deaths per mile driven, and if so, what sort of drop do they show? 2008, after all, is the year of high gas prices, which probably meant that people drove less.

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Thu Jan 22nd, 2009 at 03:17:27 AM EST

Re: Where Zero Tolerance works (none / 0)

No such data yet; but (1) the effect of a 1-3% recession on (road) traffic would be a magnitude less even in Western countries, (2) here, such an effect would be opposed anyway by the on-going expansion of highways, avoiding routes and ex-urban malls (gah...); (3) The economy of Hungary is on a different curve than most of the rest of the EU: GDP growth fell to a (by regional standards) snail-pace 1.1% already in 2007, then stayed around that level (with a relatively minor effect of the crisis until Q3/2008 even in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter data [last row in linked table], compare Germany [last column in that table]).

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Thu Jan 22nd, 2009 at 06:37:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Where Zero Tolerance works (none / 0)

I doubt the situation in bulgaria will change for the better. It's a very dangerous place to drive for several reasons.

The amount of money you need to bribe an examining officer for a licence is more or less the same as taking the test. Unsurprisingly most bulgarians believe that fully 30 - 40% of drivers on the road have had no training (and I can believe it).

The road traffic laws in bulgaria don't make sense and roads are a nightmare of speed restrictions that render overtaking a forlorn hope unless you have a high powered car or are prepared to take risks in the short sections where it is permitted (bends notwithstanding).

there are almost no dual carriageways and you have international lorries, local soviet diesels capable of 30 kph on a good day, ladas and mercedes all competing for right of way. So the need to overtake to make any progress is overwhelming.

All straight sections of road seem to have a speed limit. Also, it is dangerous to ignore these as bulgarian police get little pay, so they often perform speed checks to get bribed to make it go away (20 lv or 10 euros).

So you're left with overtaking where it is dangerous, often alongside drivers who haven't the training to assess the risk. If it's safe, it's invariably illegal.

It's terrifiying. One of the reasons I wanted my land rover was the reassurance that if one of those idiots hit me head on, I'd be okay.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Jan 22nd, 2009 at 01:32:23 PM EST

Re: Where Zero Tolerance works (none / 0)

Which model?

I hate to counter this, but I must. In standard tests the Freedlander seems at least good for the driver, the Discovery, less so, while both are deadly to pedestrians. But, as well known about US SUVs, sense of safety and actual safety is not the same. Renault Espace vs. Land Rover Discovery:

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Thu Jan 22nd, 2009 at 02:51:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Where Zero Tolerance works (none / 0)

Oh, I see model year counts a lot, too: above I linked to the 2007 Freelander, but the 2002 Freelander has abysmal crash safety for the driver. The 2002 Range Rover on the other hand is identical(ly mediocre) to the Discovery.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Thu Jan 22nd, 2009 at 02:59:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Where Zero Tolerance works (none / 0)

A 98 discovery. but it's what you're going to hit that matters. Most cars in bulgaria are somewhat small and primitive. I expect most of the cars I might have been likely to hit would disintegrate before my bumpers bent.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Jan 22nd, 2009 at 04:44:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Where Zero Tolerance works (none / 0)

For your car, it's only the mass and relative speed that counts, what you hit may well be plastic, the same motional energy has to be absorbed.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Thu Jan 22nd, 2009 at 07:02:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Romania (none / 0)

In Romania the increase in road accidents is due to the undeveloped infrastructure combined with an increase of the second hand cars purchased from the EU. Also , due to the fact that the government was a minority and the interior minister a weak one the police did not manage to "calm" the drivers. For 2008 and 2009 I think that the accident numbers will increase since no new highways are to be opened this year and a lot of roads will have to be repaired .

by cavver on Fri Jan 23rd, 2009 at 04:14:22 AM EST

Where Zero Tolerance works | 37 comments (37 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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