Saturday Open Thread

by afew
Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 10:51:41 AM EST

You don't have to speak Latin to Do The Open Thread


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Whistly-windy down this way, but it seems to be moving on. Catalans watch out, 180-200 km/hr winds on the shore (at least on this side of the Pyrenees).

We had a pretty long power cut, but by some miracle the DSL line is still up. The rest is just trees down, litter of branches, stuff flying round.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 10:57:35 AM EST
good to see you've not been disconnected by the storm. How is it ?

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 10:58:06 AM EST
Not as bad as feared, here at least. It's a combination of a deep depression with high-atmosphere jet-stream. It isn't a hurricane but the winds are hurricane strength. It's done a lot of damage (a million homes without power at midday), but here it's mostly trees and stuff. Gale-force winds still blowing though, no sense in going out.

It's now blowing hardest on the Mediterranean coast and will move over towards Italy.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 11:08:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Death toll rises as storms batter Mediterranean | World news | guardian.co.uk

Four children were killed today when the roof of a sports centre near Barcelona collapsed, as destructive storms swept through the Mediterranean for a second day.

Four other people were killed in northern Spain and French emergency forces reported the first fatality as winds of up to 108mph (174km/h) battered the region.

Catalan emergency services said four children had died and 16 people were injured when part of a sports centre collapsed in the town of Sant Boi de Llobregat, near Barcelona, Reuters reported.

Stronger winds than that have now been reported.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 11:17:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sounds pretty nasty. A bit like "Hurricane" Fish here back in 1987.

btw, is it just me and thee tonight ?

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 11:23:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In Plaça Lesseps, near Park Guell in Barcelona they've recorded winds of 120 km/h. Hundreds of very old trees fell down in the wooden areas behind Tibidabo. A really severe storm.
by amanda2006 on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 11:40:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Glad you're OK, Amanda. On the other side of the mountains, in Perpignan, there were gusts at 184 km/h this afternoon.

Apart from the 4 children killed in Barcelona, 4 people died on the French side. There are 1.7 million homes without electricity this evening. A lot of damage everywhere, and flooding.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 02:17:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks, afew. It's been worst in the southern and western periphery of Barcelona, along the Llobregat river, than here. Only in Catalonia, the emergency services have received 20.000 phone calls since midnight. Apart from the 4 children, three more people got killed by the falling of trees.
by amanda2006 on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 03:55:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A good editorial cartoon in the Guardian.

tho the Obama looks more like Will Smith to me.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 11:00:41 AM EST
At least we know who'll star in the Obama biopic.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 11:13:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I dunno, the biopic won't be for a coupla decades at least, if ever.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 11:20:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Seriously, I read a piece on that already... where was it?

HuffPo. Of course.

Obama Would Pick Will Smith To Play Him In Movie: "He Has The Ears!"

Actor Will Smith is Obama's pick to play him if a movie is made about his life, something the two have discussed.

"Will and I have talked about this because he has the ears!" the Illinois senator said in an interview slated to air Tuesday and Wednesday.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 11:26:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A real "well waddaya expect" moment for an American on a Turkish plane

NY Post - Plane Crazy

A US citizen was booted from a Turkish Airlines flight from Istanbul to New York after he complained there were "Arab types" on board, Turkish news media reported.

h/t + funny comment at The Poor Man's Institute

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 11:06:10 AM EST
You are now officially a Harold & Kumar movie.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 11:34:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Scratches head.

How, exactly, does one get to Istanbul from the US without sharing transport with any Person of Vaguely Non European Appearance?

And did he imagine that Turkish Airlines shares his prejudices and only employs white-skinned, Christian pilots?

by Sassafras on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 01:40:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He probably thinks that the lack of skyscrapers in Istanbul is down to there being too many pilots of the Islamic faith.

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 01:44:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
List of the tallest buildings of Istanbul

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 02:00:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I know,  but if he's that surprised to find people who aren't American on Aircraft, he cant have been looking at anything higer than his shoes in the period he's been there.

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 02:12:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Obsessively looking at his shoes? Get him off the plane!
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 02:19:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well those shoe bombers are tricky

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 02:24:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's probably close to the average on big American cities.

Penis-envy!

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 02:15:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One article says
After escorting Pincus off the plane, all other passengers were forced off the flight to undergo security checks in accordance with international practice. The flight eventually took off after a delay of about two hours. Pincus was released by police and later caught a flight to London.
Are they going to warn him that there are lots of Muslims in London, too?
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 08:24:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What I'm wondering is how he got to Istanbul without any suspicious swarthy types being around. And what was he doing there? I say this is clearly a terrorist seeking to distract attention from his own nefarious plans.
by MarekNYC on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 08:35:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Moustache of Greenderstanding

for Drew

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 11:27:43 AM EST
Opps, sorry This is the Moustache of Greenderstanding

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 11:28:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Maurice Allais, prophère maudit

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 11:30:55 AM EST

click for larger

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 11:39:03 AM EST
Nobody could've predicted....

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 11:40:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, and...

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

[Drew's WHEEEEE™ Technology]

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 11:40:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Apparently China is likely in recession, according to Roubini.

All kinds of awesome.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 12:05:30 PM EST
china has problems. If they use this downturn to re-point their manufacturing away from being massively polluting and put in a lot of capital effort (with lots of jobs) into cleaning up their rivers it could do them some good. But I don't think the chinese see it this way.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 01:10:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's much deeper than a recession, the social dislocation going on here is extremely dangerous.

There are people who left their villages during the past few years, and have taken jobs in the cities.  When they did so, many turned over their land to friends or family.

Now a lot of these families are returning home, and land disputes are already breaking out.  The alternative for the returning families is to try to find work in the village that is not in the fields.

In order to escape from this, the Chinese have to discover how to build a functional economy, because the one they've built depended upon selling products elsewhere.  Because, the pay was so low that Chinese workers couldn't buy the products that they were manufacturing.  And because of this, they had to export in order to grow.

This model of economic development is parasitic, and contrasts pretty strongly with the way that Spain and Ireland were integrated into the European market.

Labor repressive development is unsustainable in the long term, because if the parasite is large enough it ultimately kills off the host.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 02:46:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

McDonald's defies downturn

McDonald's is planning to this year create 12,000 jobs and open 240 new restaurants across Europe, it emerged on Friday, as the fast-food chain shows signs of being one of the few global companies to benefit from the financial crisis.

In stark contrast to the multinational groups announcing record job cuts and losses, McDonald's plans for expansion in Europe are its biggest in five years.

"We're certainly not slowing down," said Denis Hennequin, president of McDonald's Europe as he outlined to the Financial Times his plans to hire 50 people at each of the 240 new restaurants, mostly in Spain, France, Italy, Russia, and Poland.

Not since 2003, when McDonald's revamped its global business strategy to focus on making money from sales at existing restaurants, rather than simply by adding new ones, has it added so many jobs or opened so many restaurants in Europe.

The chain's low-priced menus are attracting a customer base that was already expanding as a result of improved store designs and new menu choices. Company executives argue that food price inflation has made its fast food "a better deal than necessarily eating at home".



In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 12:26:39 PM EST
Company executives argue that food price inflation has made its fast food "a better deal than necessarily eating at home".

they have got to be kidding. Insipid white bread "bun" cake, a couple of bits of genetically modified grass and brown cardboard with worcester sauce type flavour additives does not make a meal...happy or sad.

I like their shakes, but that's about it.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 01:07:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ick, can't stand their shakes.  I can cope with their breakfast stuff if I'm really hungry and in a rush, but the regular food always made me feel like I was going to die.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 01:31:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's a freakin' amazing argument. Food prices are high... but cheaper at Joe's, and, believe me, it's all such fine-quality stuff we put out there, come on over and Eat.At.Joe's.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 02:09:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I blame you French.  You've made it civilized by serving wine.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 02:17:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wine prices are high, but cheaper at... Whatever, come on over and Get.Wino'd.At.Joe's.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 02:22:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
wine is pretty cheap down your way, compared with Burgundy.

Oh god, I'm beginning to feel the booze obsession kicking in, that'll be fatal for my absention.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 02:26:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Just think of Budweiser.  You'll be fine.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 02:34:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
but surely the point is...it's not cheaper !!

Case in point, for a family of four it'd probably cost in the region of 10 -12 euros at McD. Now I know for an absolute fact I can put good nutritious tasty food for four on a table for about 8 - 10. It won't be the finest meal you've ever had but it won't need half of monsantos chemistry set and half a ton of salt to make it seem palatable

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 02:23:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Make that 18-20 euros for a family of four, from recent "experience". You can get much better stuff without even trying hard.

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
by Bernard on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 03:42:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh yeah? Reinvent yourself | Guardian | last week sometime

Sales of supermarkets' 'value' products have soared in the recession. But, as Jay Rayner has discovered, the quality is dire. Here he asks why highly profitable supermarkets force the poor to buy and eat such low-grade food ...

In short, they can afford to take the hit - because it really wouldn't cost much at all. I asked a food technologist, David Harrison, who has huge experience of the mass-market food business, to re-engineer some standard value-range products. I didn't want him to make a gourmet beef pie. That would be easy. Just throw money and some quality sirloin at the problem. I wanted to make a better pie, keeping within reasonable financial parameters. He started by analysing all the cheapest pies on the market and found that, on average, they had just 18% beef plus a few more percentage points of that connective tissue. (It can go much lower. I came across a minced beef and onion pie that declared a beef content on the label of just 7%.) ...

Unsurprisingly, the supermarket business doesn't quite see it this way. As far as it is concerned, it has never stopped striving to improve the quality and value of its products. "Supermarkets are constantly looking at their ranges, both in terms of the quality and the price that they can offer it at to customers," Andrew Opie of the British Retail Consortium told me. "It's what they do and it's what they do well. So all of the supermarkets will be undergoing reviews of their ranges on a regular basis to examine what's the best-quality products they can get on the shelves at the right price. This is nothing new to the supermarkets."



Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 04:28:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In France at least, 10-12 € at McD's will feed a monoparental family with a single child, but nobody else...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 06:25:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Be careful. When one of the "Slow Food" members said
Raspelli referred to McDonald's hamburgers as "rubber," and French fries as "malodorous," tasting like "cardboard."Ê He went on to equate McDonald's food to "gasoline," describing it as "repellent."
McDonald's sued him for defamation. (I've no idea what the outcome was).
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 08:31:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In France is it possible to argue that because your comments are true it is not defamation?  If so I will enjoy this trial.
by paving on Sun Jan 25th, 2009 at 12:46:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yer makin' my 'merican mouth water, talkin' 'bout those yummy Mickey Dee's dinners!

Here is the problem: You and your minivan loaded up with a pack of rug-rats are driving along on Interstate 80 in Nebraska, and you start to get hungry. Option 1 is the greasy spoon at the truck stop where they sell chicken fried steak with biscuits and gravy at $15 a pop. Option 2 is McDonald's. Which do you choose?

by asdf on Sun Jan 25th, 2009 at 12:06:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The truck stop.  You'd really take a Big Mac and those awful fries over some proper chicken fried steak with biscuits and gravy?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Jan 25th, 2009 at 12:35:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is what economists call them.

In terms of in-country vacations, I don't know. But for McDonalds, it fits.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 06:19:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And what about eating out elsewhere? McDonalds tends to be more expensive than similar Italian restaurants in Italy. Where in Italy are they expanding? I've noticed several closing down, but not any new ones.
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 08:26:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'll admit to eating at McD's about once a week on this trip. Back home I eat there probably once a year, but when I'm too tired to even judge the likelihood of a food stall selling Bad Stuff, McDonalds is there and it's uniformly predictable.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 09:22:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The consistency of product has always been the key feature of McDonald's and their knock-off fastfood brethren.  Sure, this caters to irrational fears, excessive conservatism and promotes the idea that in life you can control your experience but they do succeed at offering the same lousy food from truck stop "A" to truck stop "Z"

also, in the US McDonald's is inarguably cheap.  actual poor people skip the soda and fries and have say two hamburgers for $2.  A man can live on that if he has to.  

by paving on Sun Jan 25th, 2009 at 12:49:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So here I am in the

Olympic Hotel

in Teheran.

It's a bit weird.

It's sort of tacked on to a big sports centre facility, and it has built in conference rooms etc

There were a couple of seven foot tall US basketball players wandering around looking a bit bemused cos (as in the website) there's not much English signage around.

So this is clearly a domestic facility. Just as well my presentation for tomorrow has been translated to Farsi - which went down really well a few months ago, when I was the only international speaker to make the effort/have the common courtesy/ actually care if I was understood (well....the language anyway! )

But the room's nice enough, it's got cheap wifi that works OK and the food is adequate.

Off to bed in a bit - I can never sleep on planes and it's now over 30 hours since I got solveig her breakfast coffee....

Modern conservatives engage in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy: the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.Galbraith

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 01:06:47 PM EST
I thought americans, 7 foot tall or not, were about as banned from Tehran as from Cuba.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 01:08:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Depends I suppose if they win or not....

Lose the game and spend the next several years in Guantanamo for consorting with the enemy must be a real aid for a coach in team motivation.

<slaps forehead> I'm still thinking old regieme aren't I (will get the hang of new friendly america, I promise)

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 01:33:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nothing like.

There's lots of US sports and cultural trips here. It's commercial sanctions the US are involved in, and thst is completely self-defeating.

First, the fact the Iranians are frozen out of the global banking system means they didn't lose their  arses like everyone else in the Credit Crunch.

Secondly, the US apparently for ages made it very difficult for Iran to get decent internet pipes/connections, when in fact that would be the most subversive thing - apart from dollar loans "Economic Hit Man" style - that they could do...

And it is really good value, the people are really friendly, just a shame about the bloody traffic.

Modern conservatives engage in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy: the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.Galbraith

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 01:35:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the US apparently for ages made it very difficult for Iran to get decent internet pipes/connections, when in fact that would be the most subversive thing - apart from dollar loans "Economic Hit Man" style - that they could do...

But that would have required thought and a touch of reality based politics. Talking tough with stupid politics is easier to sell to your base than complicated stuff like reason based policy; it might be bad for america but it works (err, worked)  domestically.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 02:30:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In an otherwise meandering and pointless essay Matt Frei exposes why the BBC are clueless wihen it comes to the USA.

Guardian - Matt Frei - Taming the cyber beast

The 2008 election was a popular insurrection against the paranoia, secrecy and high-handedness of the Bush era. It was also a shot fired across the bows of the Clintons and the mouldy scent of dynastic entitlement.

Yea, 2008 was all about the Clintons.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 02:38:30 PM EST
The Beeb is lost, I'm afraid.  Like I said, its people aren't even Villagers but simply useful idiots for the Villagers.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 02:52:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
also, I think the only serious TV news station left is Al Jazeera. It reminds me of American news reporting 25 years ago (yes, I can remember what it was like when I was six years old, because I was imitating my parents by watching it intently).

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 09:25:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, Al Jazeera is quite good.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 10:21:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd add: It's sad to see the Guardian taking BBC correspondents seriously.  Are we going to be left with the Indie as the only sane newspaper?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 02:56:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
not for long I fear. The Indie is seriously ailing and may well go under this year.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 03:08:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's a shame.  Good paper.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 03:58:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Lastly: Plus, you know how the Clintstones drive the press insane.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 03:02:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

When I see some detailed, argued criticism, like Jerome's of the FT, I might take some of this kind of stuff seriously.

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice. Blog - Nice Experience
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 05:42:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Far from being a "meandering and pointles essay" Frei's article is an intelligent reflection on how Obama has used the new media, the selected sentence is from this paragraph:


Since 9/11 Americans have been told that the so-called war on terror required the government to know everything about its citizens while they needed to know as little as possible about the process of government. It was a Faustian pact that both Democrats and Republicans always felt uncomfortable with. It nurtured the fungus of corruption in an administration that shunned accountability and invited the opposite of trust. The 2008 election was a popular insurrection against the paranoia, secrecy and high-handedness of the Bush era. It was also a shot fired across the bows of the Clintons and the mouldy scent of dynastic entitlement. Instead of Molotov cocktails and rocks these polite rebels used the web and the ballot. Barack Obama has created a friendly beast that roared for him and wants to be stroked. He will have a tough time keeping it tame.



Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice. Blog - Nice Experience
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 05:53:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Since 9/11 Americans have been told that the so-called war on terror required the government to know everything about its citizens while they needed to know as little as possible about the process of government. It was a Faustian pact that both Democrats and Republicans always felt uncomfortable with. It nurtured the fungus of corruption in an administration that shunned accountability and invited the opposite of trust. The 2008 election was a popular insurrection against the paranoia, secrecy and high-handedness of the Bush era. It was also a shot fired across the bows of the Clintons and the mouldy scent of dynastic entitlement.

Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong.

While plenty of people rejected Hillary on dynasty grounds, the elephant in the room remains Iraq.  Why people in the press are too stupid to get that, I've no idea, because it should be quite obvious.  Had Hillary voted against the war, she would probably be president right now.  There wouldn't have been any oxygen for Obama.

Here, too, is an example of the BBC as Useful Idiot to the Village problem, because it's an easy guess why the press here, with a few exceptions, refuses to acknowledge the role that Iraq played.  It would require the press to acknowledge how hopelessly out of touch it has become with the electorate.

The election was most certainly not "a popular insurrection against the paranoia and high-handedness of the Bush era."  It was a popular insurrection against what was, by any measure, a disastrous presidency.  Bush started off his second term by (1) trying to privatize Social Security, (2) trying to intervene in the Terri Schiavo case, and (3) surrendering New Orleans to the Gulf of Mexico.  All of which people found horrifying.  Then came the corruption scandals of the 2006 cycle, with Jack Abramoff and half the GOP getting caught.  By 2007 and 2008, the banks were failing.  By the time we got to the fall of 2008, things had gone completely to shit.  House prices were collapsing, people's 401(k)s were basically cut in half, the recession became one of the longest of the post-war era, etc.

It's not rocket science.  Things sucked, and the public decided GOP ideas were at least partly the cause of the suckage.  That's what normally happens when a party loses power, except to say that the degree to which Bush sucked was much greater.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 09:57:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The election wasn't a popular insurrection against anything. McCain did pretty well, considering that he is a zombie. If the Republicans had put up Romney they would have walked all over Obama...
by asdf on Sun Jan 25th, 2009 at 12:11:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nah.  Romney lacked McCain's indie cred, ran a terrible campaign, was generally kind of a joke of a candidate, and would've likely wound up roughly where McCain wound up.  You could run a dead guy these days and still get 45% on either side (unless you're running against John Ashcroft, of course, in which case you may actually win).

The only logic to Romney was Michigan, but Obama won Michigan by -- what, 16?  Doesn't matter who you put on the ballot.  Even Romney couldn't have overcome that.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Jan 25th, 2009 at 12:32:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Romney would have been able to capitalize on his economic credibility (however fictional) in a way that would have introduced some real drama to the campaign come October.  Americans, remember, are quite stupid.
by paving on Sun Jan 25th, 2009 at 12:54:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I highly doubt it.  The other problem with Romney is that a good chunk of the GOP didn't even buy his used-car salesman shtick.  While GOPers could hold their noses and vote McCain across the board, I think you'd find that, while Romney might've wound up getting only mildly embarrassed in Michigan and states, like Nevada, that have a fairly large number of Mormons (nearly all of whom vote GOP anyway), compared with what McCain suffered, he might well have lost them Georgia and Missouri.

Romney had serious problems in the South, for obvious reasons.  He did alright in Florida, which is much more secular than other states in the region, but he did quite poorly elsewhere.

To the economic point, I think you'd find Romney to be an even easier hit than McCain.  Romney also just happened to make his money by essentially gutting companies, fire workers, and selling them off.  Combine that with the fact that Romney's positions changed faster than anyone could keep up with, and that he was a pretty lousy debater (even by the pretty lousy standards of McCain and Obama), I think you would've found Romney flaming out in short order.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Jan 25th, 2009 at 11:46:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
...adding...I think another important point, as it relates to the general election, is the Latino vote.  Here's a point on which Bush was the only Republican with a clue and -- here's where McCain gets tossed out -- something of a spine, because he worked very hard to win Latinos.  The rest of the GOP's behavior towards them during the '08 cycle was truly disgusting, and, consequently, Obama grabbed nearly 70% of the Latino vote, compared with 53% for Kerry.

Romney's problem on that would've been much bigger than McCain's (maybe Obama at 80% instead of 68%), as Romney was second only to Tom Tancredo -- indeed, he received Tancredo's endorsement -- on the anti-Latino hatred.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Jan 25th, 2009 at 12:22:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Hilary

Excellent point Mr. Jones. She definitely lost me there. I vowed right then to never vote for anyone who was on that side of the aisle.

That and all the other points add up to: Another person with the same charisma as Obama, and the operation and nearly flawless campaign, but lacking the race issue, would have slaughtered McCain.  

Never underestimate their intelligence, always underestimate their knowledge.

Frank Delaney ~ Ireland

by siegestate (siegestate or beyondwarispeace.com) on Sun Jan 25th, 2009 at 01:34:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
and all the more amazed that McCain still got 46% of the vote.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jan 25th, 2009 at 05:36:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree, but, like I said throughout the year, I think that's more structural than anything.  Nobody's won the presidency by a margin of greater than 10 points since the '84 landslide.

The other thing I think is neglected: McCain was, throughout the GOP primary season, the only Republican who polled with ten of Obama.  Taking the myth of McCain the Maverick -- and don't forget that everything must be good news for John McCain -- and the fact that most Americans at least had some idea of who McCain was (while 70% of the country hadn't even heard of Obama until the primaries ramped up), I think it makes some sense.

McCain was the only one who had a prayer of not being completely humiliated.  Romney polled about 15 points behind Obama.  Huckabee polled about the same.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Jan 25th, 2009 at 11:34:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
when bushin30seconds.org started?

Now it´s up to 8 minutes without taking a breath:

http://troyshouse.blogspot.com/2009/01/8-years-of-bush-in-8-minutes.html  

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Sun Jan 25th, 2009 at 06:39:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ted Welch:
Since 9/11 Americans have been told that the so-called war on terror required the government to know everything about its citizens while they needed to know as little as possible about the process of government. It was a Faustian pact that both Democrats and Republicans always felt uncomfortable with.

This is a typical case of sneaking in bullshit. What kind of evidence does Matt Frei have that Republicans 'always felt uncomfortable' with this? Republicans always seemed perfectly at ease with it to me. They're happy when people are under surveillance and kept ignorant. I'm not even sure about a lot of Democrats.

Otherwise, it's a one sided piece that manages to miss both Howard Dean and the personal charisma side of Obama in discussing the way Obama used the internet in the elections. Its predictions are wrong: the 'beast' Obama created is entirely dependent upon Obama's infrastructure. If he chooses not to listen to his roots, they will dissipate and fall back to blogs, facebook groups and moveon.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Jan 25th, 2009 at 03:36:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
At the beginning of 2008  Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard and Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland presented a paper at the American Economics Association meeting in January.  
(In that paper they) provided an historical analysis comparing the run-up to the 2007 U.S. subprime financial crisis with the antecedents of other banking crises in advanced economies since World War II.  (They) showed that standard indicators for the United States, such as asset price inflation, rising leverage, large sustained current account deficits, and a slowing trajectory of economic growth, exhibited virtually all the signs of a country on the verge of a financial crisis---indeed, a severe one."
In  this paper they have expanded the study and focused on the depth and duration of the effects of contractions triggered by financial crises going back to Norway, 1899 and including the results, where reliable data are available, for markets other than the USA and Europe.  Their paper, available as a PDF, is well worth a read, not least for the graphical presentation of data which I would present here were I able to do so.  Meanwhile, this will have to do:
Broadly speaking, financial crises are protracted affairs. More often than not, the
aftermath of severe financial crises share three characteristics. First, asset market
collapses are deep and prolonged. Real housing price declines average 35 percent
stretched out over six years, while equity price collapses average 55 percent over a
downturn of about three and a half years. Second, the aftermath of banking crises is
associated with profound declines in output and employment. The unemployment rate
rises an average of 7 percentage points over the down phase of the cycle, which lasts on
average over four years. Output falls (from peak to trough) an average of over 9 percent,
although the duration of the downturn, averaging roughly two years, is considerably
shorter than for unemployment. Third, the real value of government debt tends to
explode, rising an average of 86 percent in the major post-World War II episodes.
Interestingly, the main cause of debt explosions is not the widely cited costs of bailing
out and recapitalizing the banking system. Admittedly, bailout costs are difficult to
measure, and there is considerable divergence among estimates from competing studies.
But even upper-bound estimates pale next to actual measured rises in public debt. In
fact, the big drivers of debt increases are the inevitable collapse in tax revenues that
governments suffer in the wake of deep and prolonged output contractions, as well as
often ambitious countercyclical fiscal policies aimed at mitigating the downturn.


As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer at eurotrib.com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 03:54:08 PM EST
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 05:09:11 PM EST
that looks like a lot of fun

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 05:28:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 05:45:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I arrived in Bangkok last night. It's 10:30am and I'm about to head out for some temple photography.

My energy levels are really flagging - it was tough to eat well in Malaysia. It's all meat, noodles, and rice. "Vegetables are for poor people" is what I've heard. Thailand should be a bit better, but for the moment I'm running myself on Red Bull.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Sat Jan 24th, 2009 at 10:30:14 PM EST
I ate really well and really cheaply all across Thailand, so hopefully you will be able to get your energy back there.

Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Sun Jan 25th, 2009 at 03:28:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I may just be worn out as well - my brain is running at 150% daily due to all the new stimulus. I'm going to pay for that when I get home, I know...

The food in Malaysia was very tasty, by the way. So far here I've only had Pad Thai, which I absolutely had to start with.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Sun Jan 25th, 2009 at 06:34:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I found that I ate about 3 times my usual amount to keep enough energy in me in Thailand.  A mix of the heat and mostly being on the move, I guess.  But any excuse for eating lots of lovely food is a good one in my book.

Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Sun Jan 25th, 2009 at 11:08:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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