Now they tell us

by Colman
Mon Jan 5th, 2009 at 03:48:27 AM EST

Martin Wolf, writing in the FT, takes some lessons from Keynes on how to think about the current economic crisis:
The third and most important lesson is that one should not treat the economy as a morality tale. In the 1930s, two opposing ideological visions were on offer: the Austrian; and the socialist. The Austrians – Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich von Hayek – argued that a purging of the excesses of the 1920s was required. Socialists argued that socialism needed to replace failed capitalism, outright. These views were grounded in alternative secular religions: the former in the view that individual self-seeking behaviour guaranteed a stable economic order; the latter in the idea that the identical motivation could lead only to exploitation, instability and crisis.

Keynes’s genius – a very English one – was to insist we should approach an economic system not as a morality play but as a technical challenge. He wished to preserve as much liberty as possible, while recognising that the minimum state was unacceptable to a democratic society with an urbanised economy. He wished to preserve a market economy, without believing that laisser faire makes everything for the best in the best of all possible worlds.

This same moralistic debate is with us, once again. Contemporary “liquidationists” insist that a collapse would lead to rebirth of a purified economy. Their leftwing opponents argue that the era of markets is over. And even I wish to see the punishment of financial alchemists who claimed that ever more debt turns economic lead into gold.

Yet Keynes would have insisted that such approaches are foolish. Markets are neither infallible nor dispensable. They are indeed the underpinnings of a productive economy and individual freedom. But they can also go seriously awry and so must be managed with care.

Markets are tools, not an end in themselves. Society needs to set their rules and their objectives rather than simply allowing them to run wild.

If, like me, you missed it while on holiday, you should probably read Jérôme's comments on this.


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He also says:
The objective is also clear: to preserve an open and at least reasonably stable world economy that offers opportunity to as much of humanity as possible. We have done a disturbingly poor job of this in recent years. We must do better. We can do so, provided we approach the task in a spirit of humility and pragmatism, shorn of ideological blinkers.

Would it be unfair of me to snicker at this point?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Jan 5th, 2009 at 03:49:47 AM EST
Capitalism has already failed before?

Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Mon Jan 5th, 2009 at 04:38:46 AM EST
in an earlier thread: here

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Jan 5th, 2009 at 04:40:19 AM EST
Missed that while on holidays.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Jan 5th, 2009 at 05:08:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Save Capitalism From Itself, Part XVIII.

That Wolf thinks this is not ideological, or that "to preserve as much liberty as possible, while recognising that the minimum state was unacceptable to a democratic society" is not a moral position, is just ridiculous.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Mon Jan 5th, 2009 at 05:51:55 AM EST
...I should also mark his dualism. Now Keynes is the middle-of-the-road between the extremes of the "Austrian school" and "socialism". However, in truth there were several different versions of both, not to mention the then still not Austrian school-related debate of American liberals and libertarians, and anarchists in Europe.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Jan 5th, 2009 at 05:54:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'll forgive him that on the grounds that he has a word-count to stay within.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Jan 5th, 2009 at 05:58:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
However, his placement of himself in a comfortable middle (which now somehow became Keynesianism, formerly also lumped together with socialism) depends on this simplification.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Jan 5th, 2009 at 06:37:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Isn't it fantastic that Keynesianism, seen as extreme just a few years ago (Krugman: "I'm a member of the radical left, previously known as the center"), that same Keynesianism is now seen as the middle ground.

I don't think we've ever seen an Overton window zip past that fast.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Mon Jan 5th, 2009 at 06:45:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, at the meta level, Wolf's positioning is truly great news.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Jan 5th, 2009 at 06:48:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think that Wolf has always been open to argument, but unfortunately has tended to base his cool rationality on bollocks assumptions.

For instance, he - like Sam Brittan - has for some time been approving of Land Value Taxation,which is not actually grounded in the conventional anthropocentric economic assumption that ONLY individuals can be "productive". As opposed to Capital - of which Land has been classified as a sub-set to obfuscate things even more conveniently.

If you deny that Land has a "Value" (ie is "productive") then you are heading off the possibility of a tax on the privilege of exclusive ownership of this Commons, which is what Land Value Tax actually is. In fact even Milton Friedman regarded it as the least worst tax.

I digress.

It does look like there is a major shift in assumptions going on, and not just by Wolf.

Modern conservatives engage in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy: the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.Galbraith

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Mon Jan 5th, 2009 at 10:22:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You do realise that giving money to rich people to bail them out of their epic mistakes isn't actually Keynesianism?

It's nice that people are at least talking about a change, kind of, more or less, but Keynesianism isn't necessarily a 21st century kind of an answer.

And so far we haven't seen much of a move to practical Keynesianism anyway - more the usual corporate welfare, leveraged by guile, panic, and threats of extortion.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Jan 5th, 2009 at 07:05:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
more the usual corporate welfare, leveraged by guile, panic, and threats of extortion.

This is the Bush administration we're talking about, so who should be surprised?

If you haven't read it yet, I strenously recomend the long article in todays Salon de News on the bungled American handling of the financial crisis, primarily because they didn't try to handle it as much as just protect the crass class interests of their backers.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Mon Jan 5th, 2009 at 07:16:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is the Bush administration we're talking about...

Not just.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Jan 5th, 2009 at 11:06:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's also interesting to see the people who fall past the (Overton) window, Monty Python-style. von Mises and von Hayek have gone from being geniuses to being Austrians (and that's in Europe so you know it's gotta be bad).

Real capricorns don't believe in astrology.
by tomhuld (thomas punkt huld at jrc punkt it) on Mon Jan 5th, 2009 at 08:26:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sure, Serious People don't like to think of themselves as ideological. Setting the aims of a democratic society (whatever that means) is always a moral, political discussion.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Jan 5th, 2009 at 05:59:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Indeed. But isn't some form of "this is a technical, not ideological reform" argument being made all the time? I suppose reality is moving too fast these days for people's ideological blind spots to catch up with it.

You're clearly a dangerous pinko commie pragmatist.
by Vagulus on Mon Jan 5th, 2009 at 08:45:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There seem to be a lot economists around here. I'm not one of them. Has anyone an opinion about the video by Paul Grignon on YouTube 'Money as Debt'? I still can't understand how debt creates 'wealth'. But that's me: hopelessly wealthless.
by Quentin on Mon Jan 5th, 2009 at 07:42:21 AM EST
This one?

The first half or so is pretty decent. The second half goes a bit heavy on the hyperbole and conspiracy theories for my taste, and I'm not entirely convinced that it gets all the details right either.

If you want a more detailed exposition on how (US) banks work, I found this series very helpful myself.

The main shortcoming of the latter series is that it fails to show what happens when a banker sets out to deliberately scam people out of their stuff (which is a large part of what has been happening recently...).

- Jake

"Terraforming your own planet to make it uninhabitable hardly counts as epic win." - ThatBritGuy

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Jan 5th, 2009 at 06:48:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks. Yes, that's the one. The banking videos you recommend are informative.
by Quentin on Tue Jan 6th, 2009 at 04:56:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Paul Krugman - Fighting Off Depression - NYTimes.com
We weren't supposed to find ourselves in this situation. For many years most economists believed that preventing another Great Depression would be easy. In 2003, Robert Lucas of the University of Chicago, in his presidential address to the American Economic Association, declared that the "central problem of depression-prevention has been solved, for all practical purposes, and has in fact been solved for many decades."

Milton Friedman, in particular, persuaded many economists that the Federal Reserve could have stopped the Depression in its tracks simply by providing banks with more liquidity, which would have prevented a sharp fall in the money supply. Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, famously apologized to Friedman on his institution's behalf: "You're right. We did it. We're very sorry. But thanks to you, we won't do it again."

It turns out, however, that preventing depressions isn't that easy after all. Under Mr. Bernanke's leadership, the Fed has been supplying liquidity like an engine crew trying to put out a five-alarm fire, and the money supply has been rising rapidly. Yet credit remains scarce, and the economy is still in free fall.

Friedman's claim that monetary policy could have prevented the Great Depression was an attempt to refute the analysis of John Maynard Keynes, who argued that monetary policy is ineffective under depression conditions and that fiscal policy -- large-scale deficit spending by the government -- is needed to fight mass unemployment. The failure of monetary policy in the current crisis shows that Keynes had it right the first time. And Keynesian thinking lies behind Mr. Obama's plans to rescue the economy.



"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char
by Melanchthon on Mon Jan 5th, 2009 at 10:31:25 AM EST
NBBooks had a comment on one of Jerome's diaries on DKos the other day that illuminates the nature of Anglo Disease finance a century and a half ago, complete with some very pertinent quotes from the original Bagehot.  Several people noted that it was more than a comment and urged him to revise it to a diary and cross post here and elsewhere.  Sometimes things stand revealed more starkly at the beginning and probably there was less need for obfuscation 150 years ago.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer at eurotrib.com) on Mon Jan 5th, 2009 at 04:20:28 PM EST
NBBooks' comment was to Jerome's diary Paulson Blames China and Germany on DKos, which itself should be read if you missed it. Jerome cross posted it on ET here.  Both comment threads have valuable material.

There have been some extraordinary diaries and comment threads on ET over the holidays.  While I did read the  Dec. 24 comment thread of Jerome's, the link for which Coleman provides above, I found it well worth a re-read.  A lot to chew on.  These are extraordinary times.  We seem to be having almost daily epiphanies occurring regarding our societies and economic systems which might have gone un-noticed by too many of us without such diaries and comments as these.   Now if some of this will penetrate into the minds and alter the mindsets of enough people beyond the blogospehere,  perhaps we can avert some of what otherwise awaits us all.    

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer at eurotrib.com) on Mon Jan 5th, 2009 at 05:03:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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