European Salon de News, Discussion et Klatsch - 20 October

by Fran
Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 04:10:15 PM EST

 A Daily Review Of International Online Media 


Europeans on this date in history:

1656 – Nicolas de Largillière, French painter, was born. (d. 1746)

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by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 11:35:42 AM EST
BBC News - Gavin Hewitt's Europe: President of precisely what?
Imagine drafting a controversial proposal. Among its key recommendations is a new job. With a mixture of persuasion and muscle the proposal is accepted. The job has an attractive title but it turns out there is little agreement over its precise role. So only after the signature pens have been put to paper do the real discussions begin as to how the job will be defined.

This is the curious case of the president of the European Council.

As European leaders expect the last country, the Czech Republic, to sign the Lisbon Treaty, attention turns to not just who will fill the post of president but what this person will actually do. The job spec, as laid out in the treaty, is spare on detail. The president of the council shall "chair it and drive forward its work". He/she "shall endeavour to facilitate cohesion and consensus within the EC".

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 11:44:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The job spec may be spare on detail, but not as spare as he makes it out later in the article, even though he quotes it.

The French president is honest, suggesting that no one has decided what job it should be: "Should there be a strong and charismatic President or one who searches for consensus and organises the agenda?"

The French president is NOT honest, he is spinning. What could the obligatory "chair it and drive forward its work" possibly entail if not what Sarko pretends to be one of two opposed options?...

And Gavin Hewitt doesit himself.

"The president of the EC shall... ensure the external representation of the union on issues concerning its common and security policy."

That last sentence has been taken to define the post.

Taken by whom? Taken by Big Presidency proponents. And he continues:

The president will be the face of the European Union.

Except you placed an end point where there was none, amd 'forgot' to quote what follows...

policy, without prejudice to the powers of the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

If the article wouldn't pain itself to be neutral on Blair, I would say, blatant.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 06:09:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Telegraph (leader): David Cameron must be true to his word on Europe
President Vaclav Klaus of the Czech Republic was transformed this weekend from a Eurosceptic hero - "the last man standing", whose opposition to the Lisbon Treaty might save Britain from its tentacles - to something verging on a traitor. He has caved in, say opponents of the treaty; perhaps even been "got at" by EU threats to marginalise his country. President Klaus is now expected to sign the document, completing its Europe-wide ratification. And that means that the Lisbon Treaty will be in force when a future Conservative government comes to power (if it does).

To put it simply: Mr Klaus's signature makes the prospect of a British referendum on Lisbon vanishingly small. David Cameron made his position plain as long ago as June 2008, when he told an audience in Harlow, Essex: "We may have to say, well look, we're not happy with this situation, here are some of the powers we'd like to have back. But we can't give you that referendum on the Lisbon Treaty because it's already been put in place across the rest of Europe."

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 11:47:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I have two words for the Torygraph: "Article 50".

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 12:13:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Are you sure it's 50 ? Isn't that to do with the free movement of servie providers or something ?

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 04:23:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
See the consolidated treaty.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 04:50:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Article 50 (Consolidated Treaty, p59 in the pdf), begins:

Article 50

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.



When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 02:16:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
News - 19-10-2009 17:10 - Radio Prague
Government prepares for constitutional clash

The government is prepared for a constitutional confrontation with President Václav Klaus if he persists in blocking the Lisbon treaty, the magazine Respekt reported on Monday. It says the government is considering asking the Czech Constitutional Court to rule whether President Klaus can continue to refuse signing the EU's reforming treaty if his current demands are met and the court rules that the treaty is not in conflict with Czech law. Respekt says the government would ask the court's permission for the prime minister to ratify the treaty if it ruled against the president. The government is prepared to inform EU leaders of its stance at a summit at the end of this month, it adds.



*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 02:32:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
His problem is that he cannot possibly honour that promise. It's impossible, unless the UK were to leave the EU, which is politically impossible. Or rather it's not impossible, I'm quite sure a referendum would pass it, but it would split the tory party apart. What's more, even the tories know it would ruin what's left of the economy if they did leave.

So Cameron is left dangling in the worst of all possible europes. One where he can't have his lisbon referendum (he was really banking on Ireland voting no) but having provided too much encouragement to those europhobes hwo want him to make trouble.

I may hate the tories and their attitude ot europe but I look forward to being vastly entertained as they twist in the wind on it.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 04:28:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
EurActiv: 'Good socialist' sought for EU foreign top job
As secret negotiations continue across Europe over the new Lisbon Treaty 'top jobs', the dominant European centre-right is waiting for the left to make its move and propose "credible candidates" for the position of High Representative for Foreign Affairs.

José Manuel Barroso famously said that there are 'good socialists and bad socialists', when, during his grilling in the European Parliament before securing a second term as Commission president, the Parliament's centre-left group insisted on obtaining the EU foreign affairs minister job envisaged under the draft Lisbon Treaty (EurActiv 10/09/09).

Barroso's statement alluded to the fact that the socialists failed to name any candidates for the position, and he insisted that candidates eventually proposed by the left would not be automatically given the job simply by virtue of being a socialist.

Consequently, the European left's strategy has been to push strongly for a centre-left politician to be given the new job of High Representative (HR) for Foreign Affairs, in part capitalising on the good record of Javier Solana, a Spanish socialist, as foreign policy chief.


(with bonus anti-Blair reporting further down)
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 11:52:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
EurActiv.com - 'Good socialist' sought for EU foreign top job | EU - European Information on EU Treaty & Institutions
The high-ranking centre-left source told EurActiv that "the Socialist family has a number of well-qualified names" for the HR job, though he would not name names. Speculation has been mounting that if their Blair strategy fails, the British Labour party may push to have current UK Foreign Minister David Miliband installed as HR. Rumours also abound in France that Sarkozy may push for former centre-left Minister of Foreign Affairs Hubert Védrine. 

Rumours also abound that Kouchner wants the job. Védrine would be a great deal more authoritative and compentent (and so much less of a grandstander).

I saw him interviewed on French TV last week. For various reasons, I couldn't follow the interview in detail, but it was not assumed that he was a candidate for the post of HR. I did catch the main point he emphasized, which was that Europe's foreign policy should be led by the Britain-France-Germany troika. In which he's probably right on the Sarko line.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 02:33:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
EurActiv: Communicating EU 'impossible' without member states
Governments and national parliaments must cooperate with the European institutions in communicating EU policies to the public if citizens' trust in the European Union is to be improved, Siim Kallas, a vice-president of the European Commission, told EurActiv in an interview.

Asked what more can be done to boost citizens' confidence in the European project, the former Estonian prime minister said his "heretical view" is that "it goes via governments".

"If national governments exercise, in their country, cheap criticisms of the European Union, then no-one can overcome this," said Kallas, explaining that "it's impossible to establish direct links from Brussels to Estonia or France, circumventing national governments".

"For national parliaments it's the same. If national elites are exercising an anti-European attitude, then citizens will take this attitude. If national parliaments and governments are pro-European, then citizens are pro-European as well," he declared.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 11:54:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
EUobserver: EU gives free online access to its archives
The EU on Sunday (18 October) used the book fair in Frankfurt to launch its online digital library of official documents issued in the last 50 years.

The EU's so-called digital bookshop puts more than 12 million scanned pages online, to be downloaded for free by anyone interested. The oldest document is a 1952 speech by Jean Monnet which inaugurated the High Authority of the Coal and Steel Community, later to become the EU.

"The digital library frees the memory of the European Union tied to paper since its beginning," EU commissioner for multilingualism Leonard Orban said.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 11:56:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
European Voice: EU-Moldova to start partnership talks
The EU has said that it intends to soon start talks to replace its partnership agreement with Moldova, with the aim of creating a successor that would act as "a powerful tool to promote deeper co-operation and approximation between Moldova and the EU".

Carl Bildt, the foreign minister of Sweden, said on Friday during a visit to Moldova that the "the EU decision to start negotiations testifies to the progress made by Moldova in implementing reforms and its commitment to continuing on the reform path".

The announcement comes during a period of substantial change in Moldova, where the Communist government was removed from power in April in elections that were judged to be free and fair by international observers.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 11:58:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC News: Fury as Berlusconi judge filmed
Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi has come under fire after a TV channel he owns secretly filmed a judge who ruled against him in a bribery case.

Mr Berlusconi's Canale 5 channel aired footage of the judge taking a walk, smoking and visiting a barber shop.

A lawyers' association reported the incident to Italy's privacy watchdog and declared a "state of protest".

Earlier this month, Judge Raimondo Mesiano found Mr Berlusconi "co-responsible" of bribing legal officers.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 12:02:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Godz, what's he gonna do next ? Leave a horse's head in someone's bed.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 04:30:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This occurred several days ago. Since Sunday Berlusconi is attacking a prominent Repubblica reporter, Corrado Augias, alleging he was a Czech spy.

Curiously the dossier Vittorio Feltri reports on is amazingly similar to the dossier against Ruggero Orfei produced by Mario Scaramella in March 2006. Just change the names and circumstances, both as false as the Dino Boffo farrago two months ago.

Today the author of the attack on Judge Mesiano apologized, no doubt with an eye on the plummeting polls. He of course threw in the line that he too was a victim of a smear campaign for having "done his job"- whatever that is.

With this there's supposed to be some sort of truce: The free press stops criticising Berlusconi and he will stop his smear campaigns.

All of this is pre-political. Berlusconi expects everyone to play by his rules as some sort of loyal opposition before talking begins. Those who don't will be assassinated by his media. As Helen puts it, it's an offer you can't refuse- although we damn well will refuse.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 05:49:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Berlusconi will have to start fulminating internationally - the EU parliament has set the diary on discussing press freedom and the role of Berlusconi in Italy. Predictably, the EPP tried to block it, but failed.
by Nomad on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 03:50:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I believe that happened about two weeks ago, the EPP attempt to block it. Is it on the agenda today or this week? The last I read it will be a general resolution on press freedom in Europe with a specific citation of the Italian situation. I'm looking forward to it.

This of course does not change Italy's systematic non-compliance with EU directives and Strasbourg Court sentences, such as the Riolo Affair vs. Italy judged of July 17, 2008. The court has already condemned Italy for press censorship but Italy, which like all European states is obliged to bide by Strasbourg sentences, continues to ignore the ruling at the expense of State and, further, the reporters and editors who were sued and still must pay damages and trial costs despite the European Court rulings. The intent is to sue dissent off the map with costly trials. Blogs and small editors can't afford to report facts. Riolo is just one of many- and this government is set on making it impossible for reporters and editors to disclose whatever is not agreeable to Berlusconi's gang.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 04:20:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC News: France detains 'top Eta leader'
French police have arrested two suspected Eta members, including a senior political leader of the Basque separatist group, officials say.

Aitor Elizaran Aguilar is a joint political chief of the group, Spanish anti-terrorism experts say.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 12:32:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The tug-of-war continues in Romania:

The designated PM starts consultations today for a new government - Top News - HotNews.ro

PSD leader Mircea Geoana announced on Sunday that the four parties - PSD, PNL, UDMR and the national minorities - do not support Croitoru. They will propose the named PM to hold a common meeting on Tuesday, at the Parliament's Palace, "out of politeness".

"It is much clearer that he is being used as a rabbit by Mr. Basescu and that he does not stand any chance to find Romania's Parliament support", Geoana opinionated on Croitoru.

PNL, PSD, UDMR and the national minorities announced that they will back the mayor of Sibiu - Klaus Johannis - for the premiership, but the proposal was rejected by President Traian Basescu. The chief of state announced that he designated Lucian Croitoru to form the new Government.   

Background. The one pulling all the strings in Romania is popular President Traian Băsescu, who is soon up for re-election. A week ago, he engineered a collapse of the governing grand coalition of his [right-wing] liberal democrats (PDL) and the (post-commie) Soc-Dems (PSD).

Băsescu had free hand in deciding the PM's fate, but went for accepting the no-confidence and choosing a new candidate for PM. The upcoming parliamentary vote on the candidate gives him multiple options to keep control of the government: the Romanian tradition of splitting off individual MPs from other parties, or calling new elections.

But PSD and the former main opposition parties (national-liberals [PNL] and Hungarian minority party [RMDSz-UDMR]) unexpectedly found a common line, and that rather quickly, and stick to it: that ethnic German mayor from a city in Transsylvania, whose person shall secure the votes of the smaller minority representatives too.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 02:22:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
39374

About 450 in 24h.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 04:05:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
39948

Slowed down to about 10 per hour...

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Oct 22nd, 2009 at 08:48:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Slovak PM says to back Lisbon Treaty while safeguarding national interests _English_Xinhua
PRAGUE, Oct. 19 (Xinhua) -- Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said that his country would continue to back the European Union (EU)'s Lisbon Treaty while seeking to safeguard national interests, according to news reaching here Monday from Bratislava.

During a TV program, Fico said his country would act under the principle of neither threatening the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty nor causing damage to the national interests of his country

   Fico said his country was faced with two options: either to veto in the European Council a Czech proposal of being exempted from a part of the Treaty or to insist that it also applies to Slovakia.

"Continue to back"? What's he smoking?

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 04:12:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
 ECONOMY & FINANCE 

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 11:37:56 AM EST
NRC: Plans A to Z fail for DSB Bank
All attempts to save the DSB Bank, which was put under central bank supervision a week ago, have failed. On Monday morning the Amsterdam court made the bankruptcy final, after it had given the consumer bank three respites to find an alternative solution.

Dirk Scheringa, the founder and owner of DSB, on Friday announced an American investor was seriously interested in buying his company. He has previously tried to persuade a consortium of Dutch banks to take over his ravaged bank after it succumbed to negative publicity surrounding its mortgages and insurance policies.

NRC Handelsblad discovered Saturday that Lone Star Funds, an investment firm from Texas, had approached DSB. The private equity firm specialises in buying distressed companies and assets, such as toxic mortgage loans. But on Sunday the company pulled out of negotiations after studying DSB's books.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 12:05:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
to bad banking. Bankruptcy was bound to happen since last week, and the last week was a series of delaying the inevitable.

Attempted a sketch of a diary, but developments kept on coming, carried by tempestuous waves of media storm.

Scheringa, who seems to blame everyone except himself, has pointed fingers to minister of Finance Wouter Bos and the DNB, the central bank, blaming them for "destroying" his company. He also hints that Lone Star Funds pulled out after they phoned someone at the ministry. Probabaly a reference check.

Now, if a locust company such as Long Star Funds doesn't even want to salvage the DSB - what does that say of the status of the DSB?

by Nomad on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 03:58:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bloomberg: U.S. Said to Target Wave of Insider-Trading Networks
Federal investigators are gearing up to file charges against a wider array of insider-trading networks, some linked to the criminal case against billionaire hedge-fund manager Raj Rajaratnam that shook Wall Street last week, people familiar with the matter said.

The pending crackdown, based on at least two years of investigation, targets securities professionals including hedge- fund managers, lawyers and other Wall Street players, the people said, declining to be identified because the cases aren't public. Some probes, like the one focused on Rajaratnam, rely on wiretaps. Others stem from a secret Securities and Exchange Commission data-mining project set up to pinpoint clusters of people who make similar well-timed stock investments.

Investigators have struggled to build cases against large institutional investors such as hedge-fund managers, who often deflect regulatory queries about suspiciously timed bets, arguing they're statistical flukes amid millions of trades. The case against Rajaratnam, built on recorded conversations within a web of alleged conspirators, offers a glimpse of how U.S. investigators are using more aggressive tactics to cut through the blizzard of trading and trace the flow of information.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 12:40:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bloomberg: Raj Rajaratnam Became Billionaire Demanding Edge
Every weekday at 8:35 a.m., Galleon Group's 70 analysts, portfolio managers and traders pack into a conference room on the 34th floor of the IBM Building, a gray- green polished granite skyscraper on New York's Madison Avenue. Tardy arrivals are fined $25.

At the head of the table, Chief Executive Officer Raj Rajaratnam fires off questions to the staff of his $3.7 billion hedge fund firm: Which companies' margins are peaking? What would change your mind about this stock? What's the risk of that company failing to win an expected contract? The 52-year-old billionaire expects his analysts to have an edge: better information than anyone else, say people who have attended the meetings.

U.S. prosecutors allege that Rajaratnam's own edge was illegal. He was arrested on Oct. 16 at his home on Manhattan's Sutton Place, charged with using inside information to trade shares including Google Inc., Polycom Inc., Hilton Hotels Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc., according to complaints. Five other defendants also were arrested in New York and California in a $20 million scheme that prosecutors say is the largest-ever insider trading case involving hedge funds.

"Every trader wants an edge, and there are many gray areas when it comes to aggressive research," said Ron Geffner, a lawyer at New York-based Sadis & Goldberg LLP, whose clients include hedge funds. "But if you trade on material, non-public information that comes from a company insider who is breaching his fiduciary duty, odds are that it is illegal."

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 12:51:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
U.S. Plans to Charge 10 More After Rajaratnam Arrest

Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Federal investigators plan to charge at least 10 securities professionals with insider trading, some linked to the criminal case against billionaire hedge-fund manager Raj Rajaratnam that shook Wall Street last week, people familiar with the matter said.

The pending crackdown, more than two years in the making and among the biggest undercover operations into insider trading, may yield charges against hedge-fund managers and their associates as early as this week, the people said, declining to be identified because the cases aren't public. Authorities had planned to arrest Rajaratnam this week as part of a broader sweep, expediting it after learning he had bought a plane ticket to travel to London on Oct. 16, one person said.

The case against Rajaratnam, built on recorded conversations within a web of alleged conspirators, offers a glimpse of how U.S. investigators are using more aggressive tactics to identify illegal trades hidden within a blizzard of hedge-fund investments. Additional probes stem from a secret Securities and Exchange Commission data-mining project set up to pinpoint clusters of people who make similar well-timed stock investments. Some probes, like the one against Rajaratnam, rely on wiretaps.

"If you're going to shoot the king, you better shoot to kill," said Bradley Bennett, a law partner at Baker Botts LLP in Washington who formerly focused on insider-trading cases as an SEC investigator. "If they're going to take on a billionaire, they need to have the strongest possible cases. The defendant's own words are the strongest possible evidence."



If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer at eurotrib.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 09:36:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
FT.com / Columnists / Wolfgang Munchau - Countdown to the next crisis is already under way
On the surface, this looks like 2003 and 2004 when the previous housing, credit, commodity and equity bubbles started to inflate, helped by low nominal interest rates and a lack of inflation. There is one big difference, though. This bubble will burst sooner.
...
In mid-September both measures concluded that the US stock market was overvalued by some 35 to 40 per cent. The markets have since gone up a lot more than the moving average of earnings. You can do the maths.
...
We could be in for a period of extreme price instability, in both directions, as central banks lose control.

This is exactly what the economist Hyman Minsky predicted in his financial instability hypothesis.** He postulated that a world with a large financial sector and an excessive emphasis on the production of investment goods creates instability both in terms of output and prices.
...
Our present situation can give rise to two scenarios - or some combination of the two. The first is that central banks start exiting at some point in 2010, triggering another fall in the prices of risky assets. In the UK, for example, any return to a normal monetary policy will almost inevitably imply another fall in the housing market, which is currently propped up by ultra-cheap mortgages.

Alternatively, central banks might prioritise financial stability over price stability and keep the monetary floodgates open for as long as possible. This, I believe, would cause the mother of all financial market crises - a bond market crash - to be followed by depression and deflation.



"Ne te courbe que pour aimer..." René Char
by Melanchthon on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 08:25:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wondering how to calculate the Feigenbaum number for the US dollar preying on US stocks.

:-)

(At least one person will get the joke.)

Madness takes its toll. Have exact change ready

by ATinNM on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 02:13:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How is that different from Elliot waves and golden ratios?

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 03:46:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The golden ratio is the current market price of gold divided by the current market price of silver.  Roughly 62.35 at the present.

A picture is worth a thousand words to describe Elliot Waves:

ET.  "Giving math to the millions!"

Madness takes its toll. Have exact change ready

by ATinNM on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 11:15:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
ET - preparing for the aftermath

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 11:23:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's why I come here and recommend ET to others.

I love the smell of roast chicken in the morning!
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 01:22:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Time for the ECB to get serious about the overvalued

The euro has become a currency on steroids.  Its relentless nominal and real appreciation since the end of 2000 was briefly interrupted in the second half of 2008, but resumed with a vengeance during 2009.  The strength of the currency is hurting the exporting and import-competing sectors of the Euro Area.  Unemployment and excess capacity continue to rise.  The euro's excessive strength is also contributing to a significant and persistent undershooting of the rate of inflation the ECB deems to be consistent with price stability in the medium term: headline HICP inflation in December 2008 was 1.60 percent in December 2008, hit zero in May 2009 and has been negative since then.
....
What accounts for the strength of this über-currency? The profession's inability to understand, let alone predict, things monetary is amplified when it comes to explaining or predicting the relative price of (at least) two currencies. Nevertheless, any disinterested observer would be hard-pushed to avoid the conclusion that the Eurozone is paying the price for the ECB's excessively tight monetary policy.

The ECB's monetary policy is excessively tight in relation to the ECB's self-imposed quantitative expression of its Treaty-based price stability mandate.  In the ECB's own words: "The primary objective of the ECB's monetary policy is to maintain price stability. The ECB aims at inflation rates of below, but close to, 2% over the medium term."

There is no doubt in my view that the ECB has an asymmetric interpretation of its price stability mandate. Excessive inflation is to be avoided at all cost.  However, excessive deflation can be tolerated and rationalized.



If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer at eurotrib.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 09:08:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But a little deflation makes those euros more valuable, no?

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer at eurotrib.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 09:13:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This was Willem Buiter's blog in the FT. It seems the Euro still can't do anything that doesn't spell doom in London...

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 01:33:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Kinda depends on whose ox is being gored.

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer at eurotrib.com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 09:26:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Tavakoli: "We Should Impose a 95% Excess Profits Tax--Or Windfall Profits Tax--On Certain Financial Institutions... Enriching Themselves" at Our Expense

The following is an advanced copy of an essay by Janet Tavakoli to be released tomorrow. Reprinted with permission of Tavakoli Structured Finance. (On Washington's Blog)

In a January 2009 interview with NBC's Tom Brokaw, Warren Buffett criticized leveraging "to the sky," and creating "phony instruments [RMBSs, CDOs, et al.] that fool other people so you stick money in your pocket." In 2002, he claimed over-the-counter derivatives are "financial weapons of mass destruction"1 and participants who account for them have "enormous incentives to cheat." 2

Warren Buffett, the blogosphere's "Oracle of Omaha," often chastises the financial community. If you cost him money, he's liable to write an expose. He posts annual shareholder letters on a low-tech website and seems to labor under the assumption that rational people eagerly read his blog. Congress and regulators are dismissive of Buffett's hyperbolic rhetoric; it is fit only for a banana republic.
....
Hank Paulson, Ben Bernanke, and Tim Geithner10 ignored the historic ravings of the most successful living investor, and fueled some of the bombers piloted by Wall Street before finance's Pearl Harbor. After they used taxpayer money to save the system and enriched the culpable with no strings attached, Buffett said "it could have turned out a lot differently," and called each of them a four-letter word. The label was undeserved.  (The word was "hero."  ARG)

Four-letter words aside, Warren Buffett raised a good point. It could have--and should have--turned out a lot differently. But it's not too late. Buffett called the crisis an economic Pearl Harbor and said that "Wall Street owes the American people one at this point."8 During World War II, we imposed an excess profits tax. We should impose a 95% excess profits tax--or windfall profits tax--on certain financial institutions (including Goldman Sachs) enriching themselves with ongoing low-cost Fed funding and debt guarantees.We should impose a 95% excess profits tax--or windfall profits tax--on certain financial institutions (including Goldman Sachs) enriching themselves with ongoing low-cost Fed funding and debt guarantees. (My bold)


The article has numerous footnotes and hyperlinks not copied in the above text.

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer at eurotrib.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 09:55:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How The Federal Reserve Bailed Out The World

When the financial system almost imploded in the fall of 2008, one of the primary responses by the Federal Reserve was the issuance of an unprecedented amount of FX liquidity lines in the form of swaps to foreign Central Banks. The number went from practically zero to a peak of $582 billion on December 10, 2008. The number of swaps outstanding was almost directly inversely correlated with the value of the dollar (much more on that shortly). A graphic representation of this can be seen below:

The topic of skyrocketing liquidity swaps was in fact the headline feature of one of the numerous grillings of the Chairman by the inimitable Alan Grayson...(You have probably seen Grayson mocking and laughing at Bernanke in a public hearing.)

And while Bernanke was not very interested in getting caught up in providing actual explanations, the Bank of International Settlements just released a major paper titled "The US dollar shortage in global banking and the international policy response" which goes on to demonstrate just how it happened that Fed chief Ben Bernanke in essence bailed out the entire developed world, which was facing an unprecedented dollar shortage crisis due to the sudden implosion of FX swap lines and other mechanisms which until that point were critical in maintaining the dollar funding shortfall for virtually every foreign Central Bank.

The BIS provides the following big picture perspective:

   The funding difficulties which arose during the crisis are directly linked to the remarkable expansion in banks' global balance sheets over the past decade. Reflecting in part the rapid pace of financial innovation, banks' (particularly European banks') foreign positions have surged since 2000, even when scaled by measures of underlying economic activity. As banks' balance sheets grew, so did their appetite for foreign currency assets, notably US dollar-denominated claims on non-bank entities. These assets include retail and corporate lending, loans to hedge funds, and holdings of structured finance products based on US mortgages and other underlying assets. During the build-up, the low perceived risk (high ratings) of these instruments appeared to offer attractive return opportunities; during the crisis they became the main source of mark to market losses.

How exactly did this improper perception of funding risk manifest itself?

   The accumulation of US dollar assets saddled banks with significant funding requirements, which they scrambled to meet during the crisis, particularly in the weeks following the Lehman bankruptcy. To better understand these financing needs, we break down banks' assets and liabilities by currency to examine cross-currency funding, or the extent to which banks fund in one currency and invest in another. We find that, since 2000, the Japanese and the major European banking systems took on increasingly large net (assets minus liabilities) on-balance sheet positions in foreign currencies, particularly in US dollars. While the associated currency exposures were presumably hedged off-balance sheet, the build-up of net foreign currency positions exposed these banks to foreign currency funding risk, or the risk that their funding positions (FX swaps) could not be rolled over.

Once again, the specter of everyone (and in this case it really means everyone) doing the same trade: sound familiar? This is eerily similar to what happened to basis traders in late 2008 (nothing pretty) when the balance of the trade was so skewed to one side, that there was nobody willing or able to take the opposing side, leading to massive wipe outs for everyone who participated. It is also comparable to the situation prevalent in equity markets currently.

What is now unquestionable, and what will be made clear shortly, is that the dollar trade is precisely what the basis trade, or any other trade, would have ended up being for any and every Central Bank that had a funding mismatch in dollars after the Lehman bankruptcy (all of them), had the Federal Reserve not stepped in and become the lender of last resort to the entire world.



If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer at eurotrib.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 10:35:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Durden't post, (link above), is lengthy and meaty far beyond what is excerpted above.  In essence, European Banks, among others, wanted to get into the US market as it was seen as lucrative.  To do so they had to buy available portfolios of US securities.  US banks had gotten the real estate bubble expanding with cheap Fed money.  The fees were great for the banks

Cheap Fed money financed US real estate loans.  Wall Street repackaged these and, obligingly, sold them to European banks wanting in on US profit opportunities. First there were mortgage backed securities and matching credit default swaps.  

The banks needed US dollars to play, but if they just went and got them, they would be exposed to exchange rate risk on their balance sheets. Tres gauche!  A more elegant solution seemed to be to just enter into currency, or FX, swaps and pair the swaps with matching futures options as hedges. This way the bank only needs actual foreign currency when the obligation comes due---normally. And of course AIG was a highly rated supplier of credit default swaps.

Proceeding in this manner, the banking sector in numerous countries could accumulate dollar obligations that were greater than the GDP of the country in which they operated.

The fly in this ointment was the small possibility that everyone would need dollars at the same time, as dollar obligations greatly exceeded available dollars.  This, of course, is exactly what happened. But not to worry! Helicopter Ben is here! He will sent in the helicopters with cash.  And so he did, to the tune of half a trillion US$. Then some Europeans thought: "Poor US taxpayer! This is not good for their currency" Then they thought: Hey, that is our international reserve currency.

The demand for dollars was most acute in Nov and Dec. '08, and the value of the dollar soared. Then Paulson threw a dollar banquet, called the TARP, for the TBTF banks, and people started looking at all the money the Fed was creating, in conjunction with Treasury, and the US $ began its slide towards its present value. But this is only the background.

Alas alack!  I grow too soon old and too late wise! I should have bought precious metals and euros for Christmas '08.

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer at eurotrib.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 11:34:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
George Washington examines the question of what will happen the next time there is a crisis in the light of Durden's analysis above and a well known argument that next time it will be different.  The fire next time?  We've had the flood.  

Is David Bloom Wrong About the Dollar?

As I have previously noted, HSBC currency chief David Bloom doesn't think that the dollar will rally when the stock market next tanks:

    The dollar rallied last year because we had a global liquidity crisis, but we think the rules have changed and that it will be very different this time [if there is another market sell-off].

Is he right?

I have argued that the new dollar carry trade could very well unwind during the next crash, which could create an enormous need for dollars.
I've also pointed out that many top economists say that the problem with America's banking system was not really a liquidity crisis, but an insolvency crisis.

Now, Tyler Durden has written a must-read summary of a new report by BIS which shows that the real liquidity crisis last year was among European banks, which were hugely overexposed to the dollar (in amounts many times greater than their GDPs, in some cases), and so they were desperate to raise dollars last year when the market crashed.



If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer at eurotrib.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 11:47:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Study: California should focus training on 'middle-skill' jobs  LA Times

About 12.2% of Californians are out of work, according to the state's latest calculations, and some economists are predicting that the state won't start creating jobs until late 2010. So what can the state's 2 million unemployed do in the meantime to better qualify themselves to get one of those jobs? Higher education may not be the answer, according to a study released today.

About 2.7 million "middle-skill" jobs will be created in the state by 2016, according to the study by the Workforce Alliance, Skills2Compete and the California EDGE Campaign. Middle-skill jobs refer to those that require more than a high school diploma but less than a four-year college degree. They include jobs in construction, healthcare, law enforcement and many other fields.

"Federal funds from the stimulus bill are expected to create new jobs and many of these will be middle-skill, especially in green jobs, construction, manufacturing and transportation," the report says. "Matching the skills of our workforce to meet this demand will help our economy recover more quickly and prepare us for better times ahead."

The report calculates that about half of all jobs in California fell into the middle-skill category in 2008, and predicts that about 43% of all job openings in the next seven years will be middle-skill. Low-skill jobs will account for a quarter of all job openings over the same time period, and high-skill jobs will make up 32% of openings.

The problem: A shortage of middle-skill workers could develop because the state has cut back on the training of those skills. State budget cuts have drastically reduced funding to community colleges and adult education centers, for example.



If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer at eurotrib.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 11:56:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why is it a problem to be "overqualified" if you really want the job?

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 03:45:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Because HR will deem you more likely to leave if a better opportunity presents itself. Because many managers feel uncomfortable supervising people who are obviously a lot smarter than they are. Because it is more difficult than one might think to play dumb for a long time.  Just ask the ladies.

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer at eurotrib.com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 09:21:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Was watching Democracy Now recently.  Apparently in Honduras, with all of the coup turmoil, the wealthy are hiring mercenaries from Columbia to protect their property.  That's an area I'm recommending to many of my students.  It's obvious we're heading for a permanent haves/have nothing societal split.  No sense preying on people who have as little as you do, unless you're harvesting their organs.  So step #1 in your future career: Identify and locate the super-rich. Step #2: Depends upon your personality.  Do you want to play offense or defense (in football terms)?  As most of you well know, I'm an offensive SOB. :)

I love the smell of roast chicken in the morning!
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 01:43:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
AFP: Opel's Spanish unions reject Magna offer

Unions at Spain's Opel plant Monday rejected a plan on its future by its Canadian auto parts manufacturer Magna International and called for a vote on strike action, a union member said.

Canadian auto parts manufacturer Magna International wants to cut around 1,300 of the 7,000 staff at the Opel factory in the northern town of Figueruelas and move some production to Germany.

"The last proposal from Magna has been rejected," said Julio Vela, a member of the works committee and of the UGT union.



En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 04:31:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
 WORLD 

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 11:38:47 AM EST
NY Times (op-ed by Bono): Rebranding America
A FEW years ago, I accepted a Golden Globe award by barking out an expletive.

One imagines President Obama did the same when he heard about his Nobel, and not out of excitement.

When Mr. Obama takes the stage at Oslo City Hall this December, he won't be the first sitting president to receive the peace prize, but he might be the most controversial. There's a sense in some quarters of these not-so-United States that Norway, Europe and the World haven't a clue about the real President Obama; instead, they fixate on a fantasy version of the president, a projection of what they hope and wish he is, and what they wish America to be.

Well, I happen to be European, and I can project with the best of them. So here's why I think the virtual Obama is the real Obama, and why I think the man might deserve the hype. It starts with a quotation from a speech he gave at the United Nations last month:

"We will support the Millennium Development Goals, and approach next year's summit with a global plan to make them a reality. And we will set our sights on the eradication of extreme poverty in our time."

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 12:16:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Dream on Bono.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 04:33:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The St. Petersburg Times has a handy page for reference. Unfortunately, they don't include all the promises Obama made since he entered office. A separate page may be called for.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 05:11:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
SPIEGEL: The Sad State of Turkish-Israeli Relations
Turkey has recently sought to secure a new role as Middle East mediator. But fallout from postponed military exercises has seen it move further from Israel and closer to Syria. Israelis are concerned, Syrians are celebrating and the Turks are guardedly diplomatic.

It was a good week for Syria's Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem. Last Tuesday, he was part of a group of Syrian and Turkish politicians that met at Oncupinar, a border crossing between Syria and Turkey, to mark the removal of entry visa requirements between the two countries.

It was a big step. As recently as the late 1990s, the two neighbors were on the verge of conflict due to Syrian support for Kurdish resistance fighters in Turkey. Parts of the Turkish-Syrian border are still mined. Times, though, have changed: These days, the two countries cooperate on joint military maneuvers and have created a High Level Strategic Cooperation Council.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 12:20:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But why?

Ankara's New Foreign Policy: The Sad State of Turkish-Israeli Relations - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

Later, though, it was rumored that the Turks were angry with the Israelis because of the late delivery of unmanned Heron surveillance planes. And then Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan joined the fray, indicating that the exclusion of the Israelis was indeed politically motivated -- a response to Israeli air strikes in the Gaza Strip. Turkey, Erdogan said in an interview on the television channel al-Arabiya, was merely acting "in accordance with his people's conscience." His people, Erdogan assured viewers, "were rejecting Israel's participation." Additionally Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu noted that Turkey cannot afford to be seen as Israel's military partner at a time when there are no efforts being made for peace.


En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 12:38:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
NY Times: A Variety of Sources Feed Into Taliban's War Chest
The Taliban in Afghanistan are running a sophisticated financial network to pay for their insurgent operations, raising hundreds of millions of dollars from the illicit drug trade, kidnappings, extortion and foreign donations that American officials say they are struggling to cut off.

In Afghanistan, the Taliban have imposed an elaborate system to tax the cultivation, processing and shipment of opium, as well as other crops like wheat grown in the territory they control, American and Afghan officials say. In the Middle East, Taliban leaders have sent fund-raisers to Arab countries to keep the insurgency's coffers brimming with cash.

Estimates of the Taliban's annual revenue vary widely. Proceeds from the illicit drug trade alone range from $70 million to $400 million a year, according to Pentagon and United Nations officials. By diversifying their revenue stream beyond opium, the Taliban are frustrating American and NATO efforts to weaken the insurgency by cutting off its economic lifelines, the officials say.


Rather than eliminate the market, the most effective move to push off players is to structure it. Capabilities already exist aplenty in the Afghan 'government' and, I'm fairly sure, in the US forces present in the area.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 12:27:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Financial Times: Karzai vote `fell short of victory'
Fraud investigators ordered Afghan election officials on Monday to deny Hamid Karzai, Afghanistan's president, an outright victory in the country's flawed presidential poll, raising the chances that a prolonged election crisis may result in a run-off.

The findings of the United Nations-backed watchdog will fuel an escalating confrontation between Mr Karzai, who is adamant that he won the August 20 vote, and western powers embarrassed by evidence of massive rigging in their ally's favour.

The US and its Nato partners are deferring a decision on whether to send more troops to confront the growing Taliban insurgency until the two-month-old dispute is resolved, fearing that the government that emerges will lack legitimacy.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 12:48:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Financial Times: Barclays chief warns on regulation
The chairman of Barclays has warned that Britain's banks will be damaged if regulators are too rigorous in their implementation of a global crackdown on bonuses and capital requirements while other nations, such as the US, are lax.

"There is the real risk of regulatory arbitrage," Marcus Agius said in a video interview as part of the Financial Times's new series The Future of Finance.

"The same principles will apply in different ways in different capital markets with different outcomes. This is a global financial system. It is fungible. So I am very concerned there should be a level playing field."

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 12:59:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Increasingly the world is discovering that it might just be better off if people like him vanished from the pages of time.

I think he should shut up lest too much noise remind us of this necessity.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 04:37:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Time: The Prize for Best African Leader Goes to ... No One
When Sudanese-born billionaire Mo Ibrahim announced an annual $5 million prize to reward Africa's best leaders, he warned that there would be years when "we wouldn't award the prize." Just three years on, and despite considering "some credible candidates," the prize committee said on Monday that no prize would be awarded in 2009. In announcing the decision, committee member and former Botswana President Ketumile Masire said the panel "noted the progress made with governance in some African countries, while noticing with concern recent setbacks in other countries."

The non-award is, of course, a powerful indictment of Africa's still patchy governance and the continent's most recently retired leaders. The Ibrahim Prize for Achievement in African Leadership considers democratically elected former heads of state or government who have left office in the last three years. The prize is worth $5 million over 10 years and $200,000 a year for life thereafter. By making the reward so big -- it is the largest annually awarded prize in the world -- Ibrahim has said he wanted to create something to encourage African leaders to do good while in power, in part because they might be rewarded in retirement.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 01:06:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
HONDURAS:
The de facto regime of Roberto Micheletti Bain, and its friends, have spent slightly more than $590,307.69 in lobbying the United States goverment since June 28, 2009. That's a lot of persuasion.

$20,000 - The Honduran Association of Maquiladores hired The Cormac Group on 6/19 to lobby over US-Honduran relations. Partner John Slade and Mark Vogel worked on their behalf. On the registration form they indicate a payment of $8,000. They indicated on the termination report, filed 9/9, that they had been paid $20,000 to lobby the US House and Senate on US-Honduran relations.



"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 06:52:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
More on Honduras here.

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 06:54:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC NEWS | Asia-Pacific | China to move 15,000 from smelter

Officials in central China plan to relocate 15,000 residents after more than 1,000 children tested positive for lead poisoning, state media say.

Zhao Suping, mayor of Jiyuan city in Henan province, said the relocation would cost 1bn yuan ($146m), the official Xinhua news agency reported.

The residents live in about 10 villages around China's biggest lead smelter in Jiyuan.



En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 04:28:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Everything You Know About China Is Wrong | Print Article | Newsweek.com
The conventional wisdom is that China is steaming through the global financial crisis by building on the momentum generated by its 30-year boom. Indeed, ever since it sailed through the last big global crisis--the Asian contagion 10 years ago--Beijing has been feted for uniquely steady helmsmanship in financial storms. So perhaps it's natural for forecasters to assume that the Chinese supertanker of state is not turning sharply now, particularly since it continues to grow rapidly even as other economies sink in the recession.

Yet this crisis is different--bigger and more damaging than any seen in generations--and it is exposing limits and forcing change in just about every key piece of the China model: the supremacy of the one-party state, the smart economic management, the export-driven growth, the emerging consumer class, the burgeoning private sector, the headlong focus on growth at any environmental cost, and the drive to build world-class companies. What follows is a look at why these common assumptions about China are increasingly inaccurate or just plain wrong.



Modern conservatives engage in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy: the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.Galbraith
by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 04:38:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Their ideological bias is pretty obvious
The pro-market faction worries that the liberalization of financial markets and the privatization of strategic sectors (which include most of the richest industries such as banking, telecoms, and construction) are being forgotten in favor of "bridge to nowhere"-style projects. Even government officials now admit that 60 percent or more of the stimulus money has ended up in stock and real-estate markets, fueling worries about dangerous new asset bubbles.
With liberalization of financial markets, this could never happen of course. Wouldn't even "bridge to nowhere" projects be better? But read on
China bulls would argue that China, where 40 percent of villages still have no paved roads to the nearest market, has a huge demand for more paving projects. Yet bears would ask how much China gains from connecting poor villagers (China's per capita GDP is still only $2,000, and much less in rural areas) to the market. "Take a drive on one of those new rural highways; you won't see many cars," says Ming Huang, a finance professor at Beijing's Cheung Kong business school and Cornell University.
As opposed to Alaska, which they are obviously referring to, "nowhere" is where billions of Chinese live...
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 04:57:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
 LIVING OFF THE PLANET 
 Environment, Energy, Agriculture, Food 

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 11:39:40 AM EST
EUobserver: Former communist states improve in green energy
Despite a wide-spread belief that former communist states are not keen on adopting green initiatives, some of the EU's member states in the east are forging ahead with renewable energy policies, according to a representative from energy giant General Electric.

Romania, Hungary and the Czech Republic are particularly active in the field of renewable energy although Poland is lagging behind, says Rod Christie, General Electric president for central and eastern Europe, Russia and the CIS countries.

"There is more wind generation in Romania, who only started two years ago, than there is in Poland who started 4-5 years ago."

"Romania has implemented legislation, has a very good wind resource and we've seen what's now the largest onshore wind farm outside of the US being constructed there," he told this website.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 12:07:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Romania, Hungary and the Czech Republic are particularly active in the field of renewable energy

Huh!? Dream on. In Hungary, two years ago wind was nearly stopped by capping the feed-in law (at last one major wind farm is in construction this year). The feed-in rate for PV was woefully insufficient. Energy policy is firmly in the hands of dinosaurs whose view of renewables is at the level of nineties anti propaganda.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 05:50:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
SPIEGEL: German Company Sent Nuclear Material for Open-Air Storage in Siberia
The Western media reported last week on how the German company Urenco shipped nuclear material to Siberia, where the highly toxic waste was stored in containers in the open air. The company has stopped deliveries and will store the material with higher standards in Germany in the future.

The radiation warning sign was so small that few passers-by took note in the commuter rail station in Kapitolovo, Russia. Fifty-six steel canisters were sitting there on a summer day three years ago. Just a stone's throw away, people were waiting for trains to take them to downtown St. Petersburg.

One passenger was Dmitri Artamonov, the head of the Greenpeace chapter in St. Petersburg. A short time later, he returned to the train station with radiation detection equipment. At the time, he recalls, the radioactivity levels were already above the level that would have triggered an evacuation in Russia. "Besides, the train was unguarded," he says, "a gift for terrorists."

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 12:09:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC News: EU boosts aid for dairy farmers
Dairy farmers in the European Union are to receive 280m euros (£255m) in aid, says the EU's farm commissioner.

The decision follows weeks of protests by thousands of farmers over the low price of milk, including the spraying of milk onto fields.

Most of the EU's member states - including France and Germany - had been pressing for aid after the global economic downturn reduced demand.

Dairy farmers say milk costs more to produce than they can sell it for.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 12:11:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bloomberg: China May Stumble in Race With Rivals for African Oil
China's plans to buy into oil fields in Africa may suffer a third setback in as many months if Exxon Mobil Corp. succeeds in snapping up drilling rights in Ghana, one of the continent's newest oil nations.

Closely held Kosmos Energy LLC said last week it agreed to sell its stake in Ghana's Jubilee oil field to Exxon Mobil, which may thwart ambitions in the same area by Cnooc Ltd., the listed arm of China National Offshore Oil Corp. While Ghanaian government officials say the Exxon deal, worth about $4 billion according to a person familiar with the transaction, has not been officially approved, Chinese explorers have hit hurdles since July on other oil deals in Angola and Libya.

At stake is China's ability to secure fuel for its economy, which expanded 7.9 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier. China's oil companies in Africa are diversifying from construction projects as a means to gain access to mineral resources, and turning to strategies that include Western deal structures and local banks. In the process, they are competing with some of the world's biggest oil companies in the U.S. and Europe also seeking resources in the region.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 01:08:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They may not win them all, but they are certainly making life interesting.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 04:38:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Guardian: Copenhagen climate change talks are last chance, says Gordon Brown
Gordon Brown today warned that the world is on the brink of a "catastrophic" future of killer heatwaves, floods and droughts unless governments speed up negotiations on climate change before vital talks in Copenhagen in December.

This applies to the US as much as anyone, he said, adding that "there is no plan B", and that agreement cannot be deferred beyond the UN-sponsored Copenhagen conference.

There are fears that Barack Obama does not have the political capital to reach a deal in Copenhagen and will instead use a visit to China next month to reach a bilateral deal that circumvents the UN.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 01:45:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yea, yea. sorry gordon, we've heard it all from you before. All hat and no cattle. You make a speech full of vague promises and vacuous committments and believe that that is the fulfillment of your duty.

Action will convince. The time for words is done. You can push this at EU level if not globally. But you won't do anything because you don't believe in doing anything. Worse than Harry reid.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 04:41:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
FT.com / Global Economy - Concession raises hopes for climate deal
Developed countries are preparing to relent on their demand that developing countries agree to long-term cuts in greenhouse gas emissions in a concession that could form the basis of a global deal on climate change.

The demand was one of five key elements rich countries wanted for a deal at the international climate change summit in Copenhagen in December. But major emerging economies, led by China and India, refused to sign up to it, worrying it could be used to force large and so far unquantified emission cuts on them in the future.

Governments on both sides of the Atlantic are now softening their call for a global target of halving emissions by 2050, in an attempt to build a consensus around a less ambitious deal in Copenhagen.



"Ne te courbe que pour aimer..." René Char
by Melanchthon on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 08:28:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Melanchthon:
softening their call for a global target of halving emissions by 2050, in an attempt to build a consensus
Right, so there will be an agreement good for zilch.

Apart from the usual criticism about large targets far in the future. I'd be happier with a commitment to 0.5% emission reductions year-on-year for the next 40 years.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 04:08:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If that's so, stock up on suicide pills - it's not going so hot.
by Nomad on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 04:02:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
California and Texas - Renewable Energy's Odd Couple - NYTimes.com

Texas cares little for environmental niceties. Its governor, Rick Perry, bashes the Environmental Protection Agency at every opportunity, and recently branded the climate bill that passed the House of Representatives a "legislative monstrosity."

Yet the oil-and-gas state has nonetheless emerged as the nation's top producer of a commodity prized by environmentalists: wind power. Eager developers are covering its desolate western mesas with giant turbines. The world's largest wind farm began operations in Texas this month, and the state now has close to three times as much wind capacity as Iowa, the second-ranked state.

This achievement puts Mr. Perry's state in odd company. The race for clean-energy leadership is on -- and big red Texas is going head-to-head with the gung-ho greens of California. That state has thrown itself into solar power and now leads the nation by a huge margin; it has also aggressively pursued energy efficiency.

In the absence of sustained federal action to support clean energy and fight climate change, Texas and California are serving as important policy laboratories. Now, as the United States Senate considers the best ways to accelerate the use of renewable technologies -- with the full support of the Obama administration -- lawmakers might do well to look at those states.



Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.
by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 07:35:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Arctic offshore drilling plan cleared for Beaufort Sea
 LA Times


BP Northstar Island

The march of offshore oil development into the Arctic has been given a boost by the federal Minerals Management Service, which approved Shell Offshore Inc.'s plan to drill exploratory wells in the Beaufort Sea off the coast of Alaska.

Conservationists have been fighting in the courts to delay further offshore oil development until  studies of the Arctic's fragile and interconnected ecosystem can be done. But the minerals agency said it will work with the company to make sure the development can be conducted "in a safe and environmentally responsible manner."

The company has agreed to take a mid-season break in its drilling program, scheduled to begin in July 2010, to accommodate the fall hunting season on bowhead whales undertaken by Native Alaskan villagers, who had feared that noisy drilling activities could injure or scare off the whales.

"We sincerely believe this exploration plan reflects concerns we have heard in the North Slope communities which have resulted in the programs being adjusted accordingly," Pete Slaiby, Shell Alaska's vice president, said in a statement.

The Beaufort Sea contains an estimated 8.22 billion barrels of oil and 27.65 million cubic feet of natural gas. Oil operations on the North Slope at Prudhoe Bay have already begun to move into the near-coastal waters, but Shell's drilling plan would take place in two leases located 16 and 23 miles offshore.

I designed the communications and low voltage systems for the personnel quarters in a BP facility to be built on an artificial island in the Beauford Sea back in '95, on contract with Parsons-Daniels.  I had hoped to do on site commissioning.  Wonder if this is it.  

Hey! It is money!  And I was only the engineer.  :-)

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer at eurotrib.com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 12:13:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Electric bikes are all green (colors vary)


Pedego---- Comfy, low-slung, relatively low-priced 6-speed cruiser designed for hill-averse, non-athletic baby boomers. It has big balloon tires, a rear hub engine, a rack battery and a rear-hub engine controlled by a hand throttle that does not require pedaling. (Pedego Electric Bikes)

"Ride up steep hills without huffing and puffing!" "Hammer at 20 mph without breaking a sweat!" At the recent Interbike trade show in Las Vegas, an explosion of companies touted the Lance Armstrong-like powers of the electric bike -- a pedal-powered bike with an electric motor for extra speed when you need it. Although E-bikes haven't caught on in the United States as they have in Europe and Japan, makers say high gas prices, the obesity crisis, better lithium-ion rechargeable batteries and a wave of green consciousness make them right for the times.

This review includes two styles of electric bikes: "pedal-assist," in which the rider must keep pedaling to actuate the engine, and "throttle," in which the motor can work independently.




If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer at eurotrib.com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 12:25:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
 LIVING ON THE PLANET 
 Society, Culture, History, Information 

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 11:40:15 AM EST
Independent: Queen Nefertiti rules again in Berlin's reborn museum
For sixty-six years, much of the historic Neues Museum, Berlin's equivalent to the Louvre, was a bombed-out ruin in the heart of the city. Today it will reopen for visitors with a bust of the Egyptian queen Nefertiti taking pride of place, after a €212m (£193m) restoration masterminded by leading British architect David Chipperfield.

The museum was officially reinaugurated yesterday by Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel, who lives opposite the cultural complex in the city's revamped centre. The renaissance of the museum, which contains 9,000 exhibits and artefacts ranging from a 700,000-year-old Stone Age shaped flint to a piece of barbed wire taken from the Berlin Wall, marks the return of one of Germany's most important cultural landmarks to the reunited city.


(Equivalent of the Louvre is a gross exaggeration - the Museumsinsel as a whole would be the equivalent. With the Neues, all museums are now open on the Insel)
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 01:24:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
NY Times: Egypt Demands Return of Nefertiti Statue
Culture lovers, visitors and the city authorities of Berlin were reveling in the reopening Friday of the Neues Museum in the heart of the German capital by Chancellor Angela Merkel, the culmination of decades of efforts to renovate a special site destroyed during World War II.

But the celebrations have been marred by a growing dispute between the German and Egyptian governments about the star of the show: the 3,300-year-old limestone and stucco bust of Queen Nefertiti, a wife of Pharaoh Akhenaten.

The Nefertiti sculpture has been in Germany since 1913. But it is only now that Egypt is demanding that this fragile and haunting object, perched alone in a domed room that overlooks the length of the museum, be returned.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 01:29:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
UCLA press release: UCLA study finds that searching the Internet increases brain function (By Rachel Champeau October 14, 2008)
UCLA scientists have found that for computer-savvy middle-aged and older adults, searching the Internet triggers key centers in the brain that control decision-making and complex reasoning. The findings demonstrate that Web search activity may help stimulate and possibly improve brain function.

The study, the first of its kind to assess the impact of Internet searching on brain performance, is currently in press at the American Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry and will appear in an upcoming issue.

...

Small noted that pursuing activities that keep the mind engaged may help preserve brain health and cognitive ability. Traditionally, these include games such as crossword puzzles, but with the advent of technology, scientists are beginning to assess the influence of computer use -- including the Internet.

Remember, Google is your friend...

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 03:31:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Song Decoders at Pandora - NYTimes.com
On first listen, some things grab you for their off-kilter novelty. Like the story of a company that has hired a bunch of "musicologists," who sit at computers and listen to songs, one at a time, rating them element by element, separating out what sometimes comes to hundreds of data points for a three-minute tune. The company, an Internet radio service called Pandora, is convinced that by pouring this information through a computer into an algorithm, it can guide you, the listener, to music that you like. The premise is that your favorite songs can be stripped to parts and reverse-engineered.

Some elements that these musicologists (who, really, are musicians with day jobs) codify are technical, like beats per minute, or the presence of parallel octaves or block chords. Someone taking apart Gnarls Barkley's "Crazy" documents the prevalence of harmony, chordal patterning, swung 16ths and the like. But their analysis goes beyond such objectively observable metrics. To what extent, on a scale of 1 to 5, does melody dominate the composition of "Hey Jude"? How "joyful" are the lyrics? How much does the music reflect a gospel influence? And how "busy" is Stan Getz's solo in his recording of "These Foolish Things"? How emotional? How "motion-inducing"? On the continuum of accessible to avant-garde, where does this particular Getz recording fall?

There are more questions for every voice, every instrument, every intrinsic element of the music. And there are always answers, specific numerical ones. It can take 20 minutes to amass the data for a single tune. This has been done for more than 700,000 songs, by 80,000 artists. "The Music Genome Project," as this undertaking is called, is the back end of Pandora.



Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.
by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 07:46:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Childbirth at the Global Crossroads | The American Prospect

Women in the developing world who are paid to bear other people's children test the emotional limits of the international service economy.

In his 2007 book, Supercapitalism, Robert B. Reich argues that while industrial and clerical jobs could be outsourced to cheaper labor pools abroad, service jobs would stay in America. But Reich didn't count on First World clients flying to the global South to find low-cost retirement care or reproductive services. The Akanksha clinic is just one point on an ever-widening two-lane global highway that connects poor nations in the Southern Hemisphere to rich nations in the Northern Hemisphere, and poorer countries of Eastern Europe to richer ones in the West. A Filipina nanny heads north to care for an American child. A Sri Lankan maid cleans a house in Singapore. A Ukrainian nurse's aide carries lunch trays in a Swedish hospital. Marx's iconic male, stationary industrial worker has been replaced by a new icon: the female, mobile service worker.

We have grown used to the idea of a migrant worker caring for our children and even to the idea of hopping an overseas flight for surgery. As global service work grows increasingly personal, surrogacy is the latest expression of this trend. Nowadays, a wealthy person can purchase it all -- the egg, the sperm, and time in the womb. "A childless couple gains a child. A poor woman earns money. What could be the problem?" asks Dr. Nayna Patel, Akanksha's founder and director.

But despite Patel's view of commercial surrogacy as a straightforward equation, it's far more complicated for both the surrogates and the genetic parents. Like nannies or nurses, surrogates perform "emotional labor" to suppress feelings that could interfere with doing their job. Parents must decide how close they are willing (or able) to get to the woman who will give birth to their child.

As science and global capitalism gallop forward, they kick up difficult questions about emotional attachment. What, if anything, is too sacred to sell?



Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.
by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 07:50:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The emotional limits?

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 03:41:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Best to try not to think about it.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 05:32:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Crypto-Gram: October 15, 2009
Printing police handcuff keys using a 3D printer:
http://blackbag.nl/?p=940


Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell. Frank Borman
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 07:12:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC NEWS | Politics | Alleged BNP member list is leaked

A document apparently listing thousands of British National Party members has been posted on the internet.

They include former senior members of the military, doctors and academics, according to the spreadsheet posted on the WikiLeaks website.

The names, addresses, home and mobile telephone numbers of apparent party members are listed in the document.

It follows the leaking of a BNP membership list containing 10,000 names and addresses in November 2008.

A former party member was fined £200 by Nottingham magistrates in September after admitting publishing that document



Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell. Frank Borman
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 08:06:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
 PEOPLE AND KLATSCH 

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 11:41:07 AM EST
SPIEGEL: Jan Ullrich Was Treated 24 Times by Doping Doctor Fuentes
Germany's Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) has found out that former cycling champion Jan Ullrich made 24 trips to Madrid to use the doping services of Spanish doctor Eufemiano Fuentes.

Between February 2005 and May 2006, Ullrich made eight secret trips to Madrid. The flights were organized by Rudy Pevenage, an Ullrich confidante who used to be his adviser at Team T-Mobile, his former sponsor. Pevenage himself flew to Madrid 15 times for short stays between December 2003 and April 2006 to meet the Spanish doping network, according to the investigators.

BKA experts found evidence of the trips on a computer they confiscated in a raid on Pevenage's home. Technicians reconstructed data that had been deleted from the computer's hard drive, according to files held by the Bonn public prosecutor's office. Authorities had investigated Ullrich since July 2006 for alleged fraud and closed the case in March 2008 after Ullrich paid a €250,000 fine ($373,000).

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 12:30:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
December 2003, that's when he returned to Telekom.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 05:44:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Newsbiscuit: Dyson launches radically smoother new Prime Minister

In what observers are calling his finest moment yet inventor James Dyson has unveiled a radically redesigned Prime Minister which will operate with much less bluster and at a fraction of the cost of existing models. `What you get with what's available on the market now is not a smooth delivery, it just feels like you're being buffeted the whole time.'



You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 07:58:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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