IEA Wants More Coal

by Nomad
Thu Oct 15th, 2009 at 09:24:25 AM EST

The countdown to Copenhagen is ticking. Between 7 and 18 December this year, the United Nations Climate Change Conference will take place in Copenhagen, and should result in a successor for the Kyoto protocol, outlining a new framework for mitigating climate change and reducing emissions from green house gasses.

In the meantime, all sorts of people are appearing out of the woodwork to contribute to the discussion their vested interest / hobby horse / scare story / preferred solutions / and so forth. The wrangling continues, and it might be worthwhile to keep track of some, map them out in advance and see how far this sort of public lobbying gets them ahead.

We already know a bit about James Lovelock’s position. Now International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Nobuo Tanaka pitched in, via Reuters:

The world needs to build 100 major projects for capturing and burying greenhouse gases by 2020 and thousands more by 2050 to help combat climate change, International Energy Agency chief Nobuo Tanaka said Tuesday.

Energy ministers meeting in London said the world must start building by next year at least 20 commercial-scale pilot projects to test a technology which U.S. energy secretary Steven Chu said could solve "20 percent of the problem" to curb carbon.

The drive, mostly to capture emissions from coal-fired power stations, would cost $56 billion by 2020 alone, said Tanaka. Carbon capture funding could be a key part of a new U.N. climate treaty due to be agreed in Copenhagen in December.

"We will need 100 large scale projects by 2020, 850 by 2030 and 3,400 in 2050," Tanaka told the ministers at a carbon capture and storage (CCS) conference, adding that the rich world must take the lead but most projects must be in non-OECD countries by 2050.


A few industrial-scale projects are in operation, including in Norway, Canada and Algeria, but none tests all parts of the capture process. Heat-trapping carbon dioxide can be taken from the exhausts of a coal-fired power plant, for instance, then piped underground into porous rocks.

The IEA estimates that after the $56 billion investment in CCS globally from 2010-2020, a further $646 billion will be needed from 2021 to 2030, Tanaka told the Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum.

U.N. studies have indicated that CCS could do more to limit greenhouse gas emissions this century than a shift to renewable energies such as wind or solar power. CCS has been limited by high costs.

That final point, the potential effectiveness of CCS in reducing CO2 emissions, has recently been underlined in a diary by nanne and it's well worth repeating:

In terms of climate change, the upside of CCS is that the technology can remove up to 80-90 percent of carbon dioxide emissions at what could be a lower cost than replacing fossil fuel plants with renewables, with the main downside being uncertainty related to sequestration. However, coal has a variety of negative effects aside of causing climate change, like emissions of heavy metals and the destruction of nature and landscape that accompanies its extraction.

What really makes CCS a misdirected research strategy, though, is that it will cause efficiency losses of at least 10% for capture, and a few more for transport and sequestration. The European Commission estimates a 35% net efficiency for a demonstration project to be launched in 2015, as opposed to a 45-47% current net efficiency for new coal plants without CCS. So, we will need a lot more coal to feed CCS plants. While coal is not yet on the brink of running out, there is less cheap coal available for extraction than has been assumed

And nanne's final point may be the elephant in the room Tanaka doesn't really (want to) notice: Peak Coal anyone?

World coal URR value has been estimated at between 700 and 1243 Gt of coal. The model projects that worldwide coal production will peak between 2010 and 2048 on a tonnage basis, and between 2011 and 2047 on an energy basis. The notion that coal is widely abundant therefore appears to be unjustified. Further work is needed to better determine the URR range of coal.

Bold mine. So by 2050, these envisioned 3400 plants of Tanaka will be run on... what? Ponies, I guess.

An additional side note, I don't think I've yet come across an analysis that actually incorporates such things as supplementary environmental damage or a honest estimate of human deaths due to silicosis, exploding methane pockets or increased risk of lung cancer due to (increased) coal mining. One wonders if it exists.

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An additional side note, I don't think I've yet come across an analysis that actually incorporates such things as supplementary environmental damage or a honest estimate of human deaths due to silicosis, exploding methane pockets or increased risk of lung cancer due to (increased) coal mining. One wonders if it exists.

NNadir posted something along those lines on Kos a few years back. Don't remember how rigorously sourced it was, though.

- Jake

Economist (n): A physicist who assumes away friction to make it easier to explain the motion of a wheel.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Oct 15th, 2009 at 09:50:59 AM EST
And so does Zapatero

Zapatero compromete una solución definitiva para el carbón en eneroZapatero committed to a definitive solution for [Spanish] Coal in January
"Trabajamos ya para que en enero haya una solución definitiva", afirmó el presidente, quien aseguró a los representantes sindicales de Soma-FIA-UGT presentes ayer en la XXX Fiesta Minera Astur-leonesa, que bajo la próxima presidencia de la Unión Europea "vamos a afrontar el reglamento y me comprometo hacerlo en defensa del carbón autóctono"."We're already working so that in January there will be a definitive solution", asserted the [Spanish] Prime Minister, who reassured the representatives from the union Soma-FIA-UGT present at the 30th Asturias-León mining fair that, under the next European Union [Council] Presidency "we're going to take on the regulations and I am committed to do it in defence of locally mined coal".

Spain will hold the rotating presidency of the EU Council in the first half of 2010. I'm seriously ashamed that the issue Zapatero has chosen to make the lynchpin of Spain's presidency is a defence of coal mining subsidies. See this recent discussion.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Oct 15th, 2009 at 10:05:14 AM EST
* hangs head*
by Nomad on Thu Oct 15th, 2009 at 10:26:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There has to be something that can be done about this. I'm seriously considering getting in touch with Spanish MEP David Hammerstein.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Oct 15th, 2009 at 10:29:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Do it!  If I correctly understood what Hammerstein was saying, he seems to be on the same page, but my Spanish is half guess work.

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer at eurotrib.com) on Thu Oct 15th, 2009 at 12:46:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The drive, mostly to capture emissions from coal-fired power stations, would cost $56 billion by 2020 alone

There is no way in Hell one can make predictions this accurate! This is an untested technology, so how do they know it won't cost 56 billion, or 58, or 68 for that matter? Do they know nothing about significant numbers? At best they could say, "about half of 100 billion".

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Thu Oct 15th, 2009 at 10:20:37 AM EST
Ridiculous, aint't it. But then, everyone does it.
  • For nuclear, there is the EPR in Finland with its 70% cost overrun (or more if construction quality problems and safety system deficiencies aren't solved soon).
  • For wind, there are (or aren't) the German off-shore wind farms (the first is just now in construction -- a delay of 8 years vs. the earliest plans; part of the reason is too low feed-in rates which were tailored accordsing to the optimistic price predictions).
  • For solar thermal, the jury is out about the current crop of serious developers, but "commericial prices in 5 years" have been promised by some makers from the nineties.

One could even add 'classic' coal in Europe, because extra measures resulting from court- or environmental authority-ordered design upgrades can drastically increase costs (again see Where is my coal renaissance?).

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Fri Oct 16th, 2009 at 12:58:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So by 2050, these envisioned 3400 plants of Tanaka will be run on... what? Ponies, I guess.

Especially as an ever growing fraction of all plastics, fertilizer etc will be made from coal instead of hydrocarbons in the future, as they already are in China.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Thu Oct 15th, 2009 at 10:23:26 AM EST
What's not to like?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Thu Oct 15th, 2009 at 10:24:32 AM EST
... that are then run on biocoal as a firming back up to sustainable renewable power would be CO2 negative plants - capturing CO2 from the atmosphere and the sequestering it.

And of course in years that not all of the firming capacity is required, it can just be buried directly, sequestering it with less muss and fuss.


Utsukushikereba sore de ii

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Oct 15th, 2009 at 03:49:16 PM EST
BruceMcF:
biocoal
You mean charcoal from wood? The kind whose
massive production ... (at its height employing hundreds of thousands, mainly in Alpine and neighbouring forests) was a major cause of deforestation, especially in Central Europe. In England, many woods were managed as coppices, which were cut and regrew cyclically, so that a steady supply of charcoal would be available (in principle) forever; complaints (as early as the Stuart period) about shortages may relate to the results of temporary over-exploitation or the impossibility of increasing production to match growing demand. The increasing scarcity of easily harvested wood was a major factor for the switch to the fossil fuel equivalents, mainly coal and brown coal for industrial use.


En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Oct 16th, 2009 at 01:02:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
[nanne's]
The European Commission estimates a 35% net efficiency for a demonstration project to be launched in 2015, as opposed to a 45-47% current net efficiency for new coal plants without CCS. So, we will need a lot more coal to feed CCS plants.

And to name another elephant in the room; reduced efficiency for a more expensive technology also means reduced profits; so it should not be a surprise that the bulk of new coal power plant projects in Europe do NOT foresee CCS -- and some are even actively fighting calls on them to include it. (At which point I am pitching my Where is my coal renaissance? diary.)

supplementary environmental damage or a honest estimate of human deaths due to silicosis, exploding methane pockets or increased risk of lung cancer due to (increased) coal mining

In all of these, there are strong differences between first world and third world [here including China & India]. (Just as as for nuclear.) Which adds some weight to the argument about "if we have coal plantsa, at least run them with domestically mined coal" (see Zapatero below).

At any rate, the IEA is channelling traditional energy companies.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Fri Oct 16th, 2009 at 12:47:48 PM EST


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