Climate science: inaccurate press threatening accurate policies

by Nomad
Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 04:37:07 AM EST

Past weekend, the Times featured the following article:

Environmental lobbyists, politicians, researchers and journalists who distort climate science to support an agenda erode public understanding and play into the hands of sceptics, according to experts including a former government chief scientist.

Excessive statements about the decline of Arctic sea ice, severe weather events and the probability of extreme warming in the next century detract from the credibility of robust findings about climate change, they said.

Such claims can easily be rebutted by critics of global warming science to cast doubt on the whole field. They also confuse the public about what has been established as fact, and what is conjecture.

Is this an article worthy for a [Murdoch Alert]?



The experts all believe that global warming is a real phenomenon with serious consequences, and that action to curb emissions is urgently needed.

They fear, however, that the contribution of natural climate variations towards events such as storms, melting ice and heatwaves is too often overlooked, and that possible scenarios about future warming are misleadingly presented as fact.

“I worry a lot that NGOs [non=governmental organisations] are very much in the habit of doing exactly that,” said Professor Sir David King, director of the Smith School for Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford, and a former government chief scientific adviser.

“When people overstate happenings that aren’t necessarily climate change-related, or set up as almost certainties things that are difficult to establish scientifically, it distracts from the science we do understand. The danger is they can be accused of scaremongering. Also, we can all become described as kind of left-wing greens.”

And:

Vicky Pope, head of climate change advice at the Met Office, said: “It isn’t helpful to anybody to exaggerate the situation. It’s scary enough as it is.”

She was particularly critical of claims made by scientists and environmental groups two years ago, when observations showed that Arctic sea ice had declined to the lowest extent on record, 39 per cent below the average between 1979 and 2001. This led Mark Serreze, of the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre, to say that Arctic ice was “in a downward spiral and may have passed the point of no return”.

Emphasis mine. When it comes to talking heads, these are not small fry. And this is the same Sir David King who, in 2004, was quoted by the BBC as:

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Global warming 'biggest threat'

Climate change is a far greater threat to the world than international terrorism, the UK Government's chief scientific adviser has said.

Sir David King said the US had failed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

And without immediate action flooding, drought, hunger and debilitating diseases such as malaria would hit millions of people around the world.

And so, in 5 years time, the accent when discussing climate change has shifted from “biggest threat” to “it isn’t helpful to exaggerate the situation”.

Can this justify the question: has the Overton Window overshot its purpose? I was thinking the same thing when Jon Stewart hints at a “secular religion” when discussing climate change. The thought does escape that something has gone oddly wrong in presenting the science debate to the public.

I, for one, would not complain about a turnaround as discussed above. Then again, I’ve been arguing in favour for a similar stance since at least 2006, when I quoted Mike Hulme (professor of Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia, and Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research) who then wrote:

European Tribune - Climate Catastrophe: Overrated

To state that climate change will be "catastrophic" hides a cascade of value-laden assumptions which do not emerge from empirical or theoretical science.

Is any amount of climate change catastrophic? Catastrophic for whom, for where, and by when? What index is being used to measure the catastrophe?

The language of fear and terror operates as an ever-weakening vehicle for effective communication or inducement for behavioural change.

What scientists, NGO, and press could do is simply to focus on the gravity of the present and the actual trend lines. To let scientists make sensible predictions that won’t be undercut by natural variability and therefore turned into fodder for your opponents. To not make the high-end extreme scenario the key figure for your press release, and outsourcing that sort of stuff to Hollywood.

But it sure is nice to get some support for your point of view, even if it takes a while: European Tribune - get the news 3 years in advance…

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by Nomad on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 04:40:59 AM EST
Don't you know that exaggeration, bullshit and outright lies are ok when it's the "good guys" doing it? Sheesh.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 04:44:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why? how much are you overstating things?

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 04:58:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The thought does escape that something has gone oddly wrong in presenting the science debate to the public.

May be, but let not leave it unmentioned that a denialist campaign was at full swing in the same timeframe...

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 07:29:49 AM EST
It's not the point of this story.

I'd talk about that when the subject is on motivations why the more exaggerated narratives were favoured.

by Nomad on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 08:17:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I appreciate what you want to say, but it does seem to me that using the word "policy" in the title leaves the door open for the kind of discussion DoDo is venturing into.

After all, climate change denial is (among other things) (but, in my opinion foremost) an attempt to influence emerging policies by staking out and making credible an extreme position. Just like climate change exaggeration.

The proponents of the one boot science to the curb. The proponents of the other want science to stand on the sidelines looking pretty.

This is not a climate in which accurate information can be effectively disseminated.

Jesus died for somebody's sins but not mine - Patti Smith

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 08:55:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If my story opens the door to this kind of discussion, I'm not one who'd want it closed, but the story I posted is not incomplete without it.

This is not a climate in which accurate information can be effectively disseminated

I don't think it (= effectively disseminating accurate information) has been sufficiently tried to really know that.

by Nomad on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 09:50:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is easy to get wrong. When the denialists are getting off by blatant distortion of science, that doesn't mean you should reciprocitate with blatant distortions of science in the other direction.

Or, as I wrote before:


There are downsides to overton window politics which are being ignored in the discourse on the left. Mainly, that it is easy for opponents to start painting your movement as irrational extremists. As we have by now successfully started doing to conservative Republicans in the United States. To avoid this trap, one should at least try to avoid bullshit. And, in the context of policy, one should put a focus on offering concrete alternatives to avoid being seen as merely critical.

Now, that's my perception, born mainly out of an elitist preference for truthfulness, nuance and realism, as well as observing how environmentalism has been sidelined and declared 'dead' in the mainstream during the past 9 years. To the extent that 'environmentalist' is now seen as a pejorative by otherwise reasonable people like Nate Silver. It might be, though, that we are on the brink of a more progressive age and I merely lack the audacity of hope.


And reformulated:
Many of the objections of environmentalists to European climate change policy can be understood in the context of the 'Overton window'. Their criticism is harsher than would seem reasonable, but this is a design to shift the political centre towards their position.  The centre, in that context, is a social construction mainly formulated through the mainstream media. For more, read this post by Jamais Cascio.

As a perpetual concern troll, I worry whether this approach is overrated. The least that needs to be digested is that the original formulation of the Overton window is about advocating more extreme policies than you wish to see implemented in order to widen the spectrum of imagined solutions. Not just about kicking up noise.

IMHO many of the greens that get into the media get it wrong. Of course the media overplays these people the same as it overplays anyone who will say anything 'different' on the other side. As David Roberts recently noted on Grist:

Helpfully, when you offer facile dismissals of science and policy to which people have devoted their lives--"We could end this debate and be done with it," sighs Dubner, "and move on to problems that are harder to solve."--they get angry, and they express that anger. Then you get to be the Brave, Persecuted Freethinker battling the Quasi-Religious Orthodoxy, and the press loves you all the more.  Why else would anyone know Roger Pielke Jr.`s name? Lomborg rode that train, along with Shellenberger/Nordhaus and Dyson. In a smaller, grubbier way, even a flack like Patrick Moore ("co-founder of Greenpeace"!) has made it work for him. It's no wonder Levitt/Dubner thought they could do the same thing, and you can sense their hesitation now that it's not working so well. [...]

On the other hand, simply repeat the broad global consensus-- climate change is an urgent problem that warrants coordinated action to reduce GHG emissions--and you get nowhere. Boooring. (I can't tell you how many back-and-forths I've had with media outlets where I try to explain that the thing most people think is right actually is right, and they say, maybe so, but that's not going to titillate our readers.)

I could start doing this crap tomorrow: Have a revelation that greens are emotional, irrational, in the grips of a cultish faith (a "secular religion"!). Realize that they're doing everything wrong, from their message to their recommended policies. Discover that the real solution is ... I don't know, thorium reactors, and everything else is needless hype and meddling. I could be denounced by greens and wear their opprobrium as a badge to gain entry into cable news and op-ed pages.


If the public keeps reading things from greens about imminent catastrophies and the need for population reduction (and yes, that's not the majority but these people are prominent) it's little wonder many see environmentalism as a secular religion. It's partially a media-created image. It's partially a result of people not being able to process too much reality at a time. But I sometimes do feel like doing a good Realo style purge.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 10:25:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
nanne:
When the denialists are getting off by blatant distortion of science, that doesn't mean you should reciprocitate with blatant distortions of science in the other direction.

I don't disagree. I was merely making an observation.

And expressing my skepticism about the "process" of public discourse on a hot-button issue.

So for me the paradox becomes: how can we obtain rational (or "responsible") public climate policy when an objective discussion of facts and data is not possible.

Jesus died for somebody's sins but not mine - Patti Smith

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 11:29:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How often do denialists attack environmentalists employing Overton Window politics? It seems to me they are much more preoccupied attacking scientists and mainstream politicians listening to them.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 12:22:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Attacking environmentalists as evil ideologues is part of the standard denialist playbook. See here.

Otherwise, I don't understand what your question refers to.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 12:49:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Attacking environmentalists as evil ideologues is part of the standard denialist playbook.

Yep. Part of it. And they don't need the extremist fringe for their attacks. On the FP of the blog you link to, there is

  1. an attack on Gore and NYT,
  2. an unsourced context-free quote of a call for "halving electricity consumption" attributed to "greens",
  3. photos of his campaign against Exelon's cap-and-trade supporting CEO,
  4. a story on a company trying a scam on the back of a light bulb replacement programme,
  5. a two-pronged conflict of interest attack on a WaPo journalist,
  6. an attack on an argument for Obama's smart grid initiative,
  7. an attack on Levi's green PR.

So, I repeat: the bulk of the attacks by denialists focus on the mainstream, whom they spin as extremists, they don't much need the wacko wing of fundi Greens.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 01:18:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Fair enough. The public perception of environmentalists may however still be negatively affected by the occassional whacky statement being overplayed in the press.

I think we can come to a synthesis if you read nomad's piece mainly as media criticism. Some of the same tendencies in the news media that exaggerate scepticism will also bring out exaggerated claims.* The upshot it a reduced trust of the public in science, whereas the proper target would be the science desks of various news operations.

* Some, because of course certain elements of the media also have their fair share of cranks and corporate hacks

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 02:30:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The public perception of environmentalists may however still be negatively affected by the occassional whacky statement being overplayed in the press.
I think we can come to a synthesis if you read nomad's piece mainly as media criticism.

I have a tendency to only comment on what I disagree with or miss :-)

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 01:41:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Very good comment, but I think DoDo's right that the denialists demonize plain centre moderate expression of ideas, not those who may already be categorized as "extreme". Holocaust deniers, Creationists, Swiftboaters, (same style as climate change deniers) take standard CW for their target. They don't need extreme views to work on.

Two lessons: being more extreme à la Greenpeace doesn't actually move the Overton Window (it's the others that are smarter at doing that). And we have no particular interests to serve in attacking the denialist extreme either. We should inform mainstream CW as best we can.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 03:38:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I wasn't thinking of the policy effect. Merely the reasons why even Jon Stewart is talking of "secular religion".

Given that denialists have bombarded public opinion with attacks defaming human-induced global warming as a secular religion for a decade, and did so using by far not only the rhetorical overshoots of loose cannon environmentalist activists and boastful scientists, I don't think you can give most of the blame to these loose cannons for present trends in American public opinion.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 12:19:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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