Tuesday Open Thread

by Migeru
Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 10:52:32 AM EST

ET: giving people thread to hang themselves since 2005.


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Apparently events are moving quickly in London after Klaus signed the Lisbon treaty.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 10:57:49 AM EST
Jeez, the Lisbon treaty is only a few hours old, and it's already starting to get dark earlier here in the EU.

Skennah Kowa
by Crazy Horse on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 11:05:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
[Nosemonkey's Crystal Ball of Doom™ Technology]

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 11:08:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Are all the posts on that page by nosemonkey? what do the @blabla mean?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 01:08:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]


En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 01:14:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The @blabla is a specific reply to another user (called blabla in that case), and yes thats all posts by Nosemonkey.

Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell. Frank Borman
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 01:16:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the address convention for orphaned reply --@(UID, date, time)-- dates to BBS but is typical at any forum and "blog" platform that doesn't generate "nested" (parent-child hierarchical) display of user inputs. The orphaned reply has no parent --or antecedent-- but the top-level UID object ("followed").

UID(n) <-- top-level UID object --> UID (n)

Twitter vomits user input, limiting display ouput to chunks, so to speak, of 140 char strings.

The undifferentiated FP live aggregate stream was the silliest so-called communication thingey I've ever seen.

ok. Maybe I'm exaggerating.

Numerous policiticians and family relations seldom cease to amaze.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 02:47:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Numerous policiticians and family relations seldom cease to amaze.

Ain't that the truth?

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 03:40:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Can someone explain how twitter works?

And follow it by explaining what it is all about? By now I think can understand Facebook, but the purpose of Twitter goes above my head.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 01:23:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well Twitter is just the stripped down news feed of facebook, you get to follow who you like, so for instance,I follow a pile of news stations,  amongst others, so am getting a pile of Live news as it happens. So see it as a combined RSS feed/24 hour news channel/comment source.

I may be biassed though as I won a book from it this afternoon so may be feeling unduly positive about the service.

Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell. Frank Borman

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 01:50:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Y'know all the short pithy statements on Facebook that people make in between posting pictures and videos and sorting their friends making event pages an' stuff. Well, twitter is just all that junk, only that junk.

think of a dKos comment thread. With really stupid people.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 01:50:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
think of a dKos comment thread. With really stupid people.

Clearly carried out by the Department of Redundancy Department. :)

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 01:58:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now now. they may have a higher signal to noise ratio than here but their hearts are mostly in the right place.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 02:00:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...and naturally demonstrating my contribution to the noise end of the debate, that'd be a lower signal to noise ratio...

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 02:01:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Awwwwww. (No one believes you.)

Nosemonkey's Twittering is funny, though. A creative use of the medium.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 03:05:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, no.

DKos comments don't fit in the 160 characters of a text message. If only...

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 03:38:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, it now seems that the tories are going to accept that the sky is blue and apples fall downwards and will now be accepting that the lisbon treaty cannot be undone. There will be no referendum.

I still can't work out whether the tories were banking on this or are disappointed. However it's certain that the backwoods europhobes will wail and gnash their teeth for a bit. Whether they have the capability to make trouble for Jellytot Dave is aonther thing we will see over the next couple of months.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 01:57:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Dave from Marketing is reluctantly - oh, so reluctantly - admitting that it's a fait accompli.

Tragically, he's going to have to renege on his heartfelt promise to hold a referendum, now that it's out of his hands.

The faithful will be duly tranquilised - or at least pacified - for now.

I suppose this means that unless someone (note how I don't mention Hannan here) sticks a Westminster knife in his back, the UK won't be leaving the EU just yet, even if the ToryTubbies win the next round of celebrity expenses.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 03:45:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
L'ethnologue Claude Lévi-Strauss est mort  The anthropologist Claude Lévi-Strauss died
L'ethnologue est mort dans la nuit de samedi à dimanche à l'âge de 100 ans, selon un porte-parole de l'Ecole des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS) contacté par LeMonde.fr.The anthropologist died during the night from Saturday to Sunday in the age 100 years, according to a spokesman from the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) contacted by LeMonde.fr.


"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char
by Melanchthon on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 11:26:45 AM EST
A giant has died.

Madness takes its toll. Have exact change ready
by ATinNM on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 11:35:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A great thinker and an ET figure, thanks to kcurie.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 03:00:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Associated Press via Google: European court: No crucifixes in Italian schools

Europe's court of human rights ruled Tuesday the display of crucifixes in Italian public schools violates religious and education freedoms under the continent's rights convention.

The ruling, which could force a Europe-wide review of the use of religious symbols in government-run schools, rejected arguments by Italy's government that the crucifix was a national symbol of culture, history and identity, tolerance and secularism.

A seven-judge panel sided with a complaint filed by Soile Lautsi, a parent of two children, who claimed public schools in her northern Italian town eight years ago refused to remove the Roman Catholic symbols from classrooms.



En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 11:49:06 AM EST
I wonder if they are going to ban all European flags which have crosses on them (Britain, Finland, Denmark, Sweden etc).

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 12:03:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now that's a provocative question of which one, such as myself, could easily make light by differentiating cruciform and crucifix.

I'm pretty sure the standard of those nations doesn't depict either Jesus or his bloody beating heart.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 12:16:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
LOL, so everything is okay if those pesky Italians become protestants? ;)

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 11:26:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
For that matter, what about something much less symbolic: state churches in Scandinavia and Britain.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 12:24:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Or in Germany... Just because there are two doesn't mean they are not state churches (as the collection of Church Taxes proves). Come to think of it, Spain also collects Church Tax.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 12:29:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As does Italy. While you can redirect it elsewhere, you don't have the option (as in Germany) of simply not paying it.
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 12:32:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So, is Church Tax next in line at the Strasbourg Court?

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 12:35:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not according to this article (in German) - which gives an interesting comparison of the specific relationships between european states and religious communities and an outlook how the German Church is considering taking the relationship forward, also in relationship to the EU - following the Lisbon Treaty.

The authors general assumption is that while each state has its own unique relationship due to historical circumstances, there will be a greater harmonisation in the long run.

See also Lisbon Treaty
Consolidated version of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union:

Article 17

  1. The Union respects and does not prejudice the status under national law of churches and religious associations or communities in the Member States.
  2. The Union equally respects the status under national law of philosophical and non-confessional organisations.
  3. Recognising their identity and their specific contribution, the Union shall maintain an open, transparent and regular dialogue with these churches and organisations.
by PeWi on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 07:39:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We're dealing with confusion here, though. The ECHR rules on the Convention on Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms and is not an EU organ. The Convention supersedes EU law.

(Although the honourable judges in the ECJ might yet disagree with me on that, or at least presume that they are the ones to give the ultimate interpretation of the Convention rather than the ECHR)

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 08:22:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not sure, if there was confusion - I said that it is unlikely that the Church taxes will have a similar fate to the crucifix, however if, they would have to be dealt on a country by country basis - like the crucifix judgement, as each church has its unique and historically formed relationship with the country within they operate.

Secondly - and maybe I had not made a clear enough distinction - the overall legislation regarding this relationship of Church and the countries is not going to change fundamentally - and gave the example of the text from the Lisbon treaty.

Therefore there is no planned greater harmonisation of European- State- church -Relationship, and the Crucifix (or Church Tax) regulation will continue to be dealt with on a member-state basis.

by PeWi on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 10:49:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, but as a precondition for membership, Turkey will have to start using Denmark's flag.

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde
by NordicStorm (michael<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 12:34:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
OMG! ;-)

This may have consequences in Bavaria -- and the CSU's Euroscepticism will get a boost.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 12:10:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Should we start a European People's Party Hissy Fit Watch?

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 12:13:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Done and done:

Kruzifix-Beschluss - WikipediaCrucifix ruling
Kruzifix-Beschluss (umgangssprachlich auch Kruzifix-Urteil) wird die Entscheidung des Bundesverfassungsgerichts genannt, mit der Teile der Bayerischen Volksschulordnung von 1983 für verfassungswidrig und nichtig erklärt wurden, nach denen in jedem Klassenzimmer der Volksschulen in Bayern ein Kruzifix oder zumindest ein Kreuz anzubringen war.[1] Der Kruzifix-Beschluss ist eine bedeutsame Entscheidung zum Verhältnis von Religion und Staat in Deutschland.The crucifix ruling (originally also called the crucifix verdict) decision of the German Federal Constitutional Court overturning parts of the Bavarian School Statute of 1983 that required a crucifix or at least a cross to be mounted in all classrooms in Bavaria. The crucifix decision is a major decision on the relationship between church and state in Germany.


There's no such thing as original sin - Elvis Costello
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 12:36:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
However, it is a ruling not executed unless a parent requests it; for example teachers can't request it. On the other hand, I guess I should read the details of the ruling on the Italian case to see if that trick would be possible there, or not (in which case there WILL be a Bavarian consequence).

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 12:40:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
arguments by Italy's government that the crucifix was a national symbol of ... secularism

What?

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 12:14:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"We're all Post Modernists now."

Madness takes its toll. Have exact change ready
by ATinNM on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 01:09:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Spoken as a true Anchovak...

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 03:21:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BTW I was at a very twittery ITC conference today - well more of matchmaking than a conference, but one of the keynotes came from a top Nokia guy:

Anssi Vanjoki is Executive Vice President and General Manager of the Markets unit, a position he has held since January 2008. In the role, Anssi is responsible for consumer insights, sales, marketing, manufacturing and logistics across all Nokia products and services. He has been a member of the Nokia Group Executive Board since 1998.

In it he said that MS, Google and Apple were Stalinist dictatorships, whereas Nokia was bottom-up. He must have snuck into one of my early seminars. Nowadays I'd say it was a 3D company.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 03:29:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
in my experience, all big companies are equally bad, except some of them are worse.
by rootless2 (redacted) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 03:53:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There's that too ;-)

But for a Don Quixote, they are just bigger windmills. For a Don Quijote, it's more about being "to be quick with inventiveness", and part 2 is the more important section of Cervantes' book, about deception.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 04:28:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ECHR:

Principal facts

The applicant, Ms Soile Lautsi, is an Italian national who lives in Abano Terme (Italy). In 2001-2002 her children, Dataico and Sami Albertin, aged 11 and 13 respectively, attended the State school "Istituto comprensivo statale Vittorino da Feltre" in Abano Terme. All of the classrooms had a crucifix on the wall, including those in which Ms Lautsi's children had lessons. She considered that this was contrary to the principle of secularism by which she wished to bring up her children. She informed the school of her position, referring to a Court of Cassation judgment of 2000, which had found the presence of crucifixes in polling stations to be contrary to the principle of the secularism of the State. In May 2002 the school's governing body decided to leave the crucifixes in the classrooms. A directive recommending such an approach was subsequently sent to all head teachers by the Ministry of State Education.

On 23 July 2002 the applicant complained to the Veneto Regional Administrative Court about the decision by the school's governing body, on the ground that it infringed the constitutional principles of secularism and of impartiality on the part of the public authorities. The Ministry of State Education, which joined the proceedings as a party, emphasised that the impugned situation was provided for by royal decrees of 1924 and 1928. On 14 January 2004 the administrative court granted the applicant's request that the case be submitted to the Constitutional Court for an examination of the constitutionality of the presence of a crucifix in classrooms. Before the Constitutional Court, the Government argued that such a display was natural, as the crucifix was not only a religious symbol but also, as the "flag" of the only Church named in the Constitution (the Catholic Church), a symbol of the Italian State. On 15 December 2004 the Constitutional Court held that it did not have jurisdiction, on the ground that the disputed provisions were statutory rather than legislative. The proceedings before the administrative court were resumed, and on 17 March 2005 that court dismissed the applicant's complaint. It held that the crucifix was both the symbol of Italian history and culture, and consequently of Italian identity, and the symbol of the principles of equality, liberty and tolerance, as well as of the State's secularism. By a judgment of 13 February 2006, the Consiglio di Stato dismissed the applicant's appeal, on the ground that the cross had become one of the secular values of the Italian Constitution and represented the values of civil life.

Complaints, procedure and composition of the Court

The applicant alleged, in her own name and on behalf of her children, that the display of the crucifix in the State school attended by the latter was contrary to her right to ensure their education and teaching in conformity with her religious and philosophical convictions, within the meaning of Article 2 of Protocol No. 1. The display of the cross had also breached her freedom of conviction and religion, as protected by Article 9 of the Convention.  

Decision of the Court

The presence of the crucifix - which it was impossible not to notice in the classrooms - could easily be interpreted by pupils of all ages as a religious sign and they would feel that they were being educated in a school environment bearing the stamp of a given religion. This could be encouraging for religious pupils, but also disturbing for pupils who practised other religions or were atheists, particularly if they belonged to religious minorities. The freedom not to believe in any religion (inherent in the freedom of religion guaranteed by the Convention) was not limited to the absence of religious services or religious education: it extended to practices and symbols which expressed a belief, a religion or atheism. This freedom deserved particular protection if it was the State which expressed a belief and the individual was placed in a situation which he or she could not avoid, or could do so only through a disproportionate effort and sacrifice.

The State was to refrain from imposing beliefs in premises where individuals were dependent on it. In particular, it was required to observe confessional neutrality in the context of public education, where attending classes was compulsory irrespective of religion, and where the aim should be to foster critical thinking in pupils.

The Court was unable to grasp how the display, in classrooms in State schools, of a symbol that could reasonably be associated with Catholicism (the majority religion in Italy) could serve the educational pluralism that was essential to the preservation of a "democratic society" as that was conceived by the Convention, a pluralism that was recognised by the Italian Constitutional Court.

The compulsory display of a symbol of a given confession in premises used by the public  authorities, and especially in classrooms, thus restricted the right of parents to educate their children in conformity with their convictions, and the right of children to believe or not to believe. The Court concluded, unanimously, that there had been a violation of Article 2 of Protocol No. 1 taken jointly with Article 9 of the Convention.

This is the court so-called "Eurosceptics" throw their vomit on.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 02:40:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The full court ruling in French with essential parts translated into Italian is available to our multilinguistic community here. (Italian before French- scroll down.)
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 04:40:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I ate at a new Turkish restaurant. The Hungarian server and her headscarved Turkish colleague where chattering exitedly -- in German. While the Hungarian one's German was rather broken groundschool-level, the Turkish one's was native level. How and why did she get to this austere place, I wondered. On leaving, I ventured to tell her 'Thank you - Danke schön" -- she lit up with a smile to the ears.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 12:49:18 PM EST
If it hadn't been for Hitler we'd all be speaking German already.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 12:56:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
wouldn't be a military-industrial state either.
by Magnifico on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 01:21:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And if it hadn't been for Roosevelt we'd all be speaking Russian...

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 11:28:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Been doing my standard morning internetting here, there, and The Orange Place.  All I've got to say is:

Who passed-out the crazy pills?

Madness takes its toll. Have exact change ready

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 01:14:26 PM EST
to finish our dscussion of last night, I agree that your scenario of the libs + dems moving the democrat party so far to the "left" that they chase the blue dogs into some centrist GOP is a reasonable possiblity. However, it's such a comfortable resolution of the wingnut situation that I cannot help but think something somewhere will screw it up.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 01:46:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
libs + dems moving the democrat party so far to the "left" that they chase the blue dogs into some centrist GOP is a reasonable possiblity

Hahaha... no.

While the blue dogs may leave the Democratic Party, it won't be because the party heads left. There is no signs of that happening. The left of the Democratic Party isn't about to chase away blue dogs out of ideological purity.

In the U.S. two party system, there is a right wing party (Republicans) and a centrist party (Democrats). Since there is no left wing gravitational force, I think the American politics always is pulled rightwards.

When the blue dogs leave, it will be because the pull right to the right is electorally safe again; meaning the Republican Party becomes less social issue bent and more corporate and moneyed interests bent.

Of course this all assumes the U.S. will survive as a nation long enough.

by Magnifico on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 02:03:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Magnifico:
less social issue bent and more corporate and moneyed interests bent.

Is this even possible, without putting everyone in uniform?

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 03:48:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, it's merely a temporary step to prevent Islamobamafascism

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 04:02:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This reminds me, what are the guys at NoQuarterUSA up to these days?

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 04:05:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Larry Johnson is probably busy working on a land grab with Sudanese warlords in south Sudan:

SudanTribune article : Jarch appoints Larry C. Johnson as Vice-President, J. Peter Pham as Senior Adviser

I am pleased to announce that Mr. Larry C. Johnson will serve as Vice President of Jarch. Mr. Johnson is in charge of intelligence and security for the Company.

FT.com / Africa - US investor buys Sudanese warlord's land

A US businessman backed by former CIA and state department officials says he has secured a vast tract of fertile land in south Sudan from the family of a notorious warlord, in post-colonial Africa's biggest private land deal.

Philippe Heilberg, a former Wall Street banker and chairman of New York-based Jarch Capital, told the Financial Times he had gained leasehold rights to 400,000 hectares of land - an area the size of Dubai - by taking a majority stake in a company controlled by the son of Paulino Matip [former commander of the SPLA].



"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char
by Melanchthon on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 04:24:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
!

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 04:25:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Jarch vice-chairman is Joseph Wilson, former US ambassador...

Oh, and they have hired Blackwater to train their militias...

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 05:04:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
According to both original and arcane Vedantas...

once a spook, always a spook.

(even if your wife is blond and sold a story to Hollyweird.)

Skennah Kowa

by Crazy Horse on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 05:07:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Jesus, this is, like, Spook LLC.

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 06:52:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, but Clinton spooks...

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char
by Melanchthon on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 07:16:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Dick Armey, Leader, Organizer, and Spokesperson for the Peculiar People announced today:

"I would say it's [NY-23] the tip of the spear," said Dick Armey, the former GOP House majority leader who now serves as chairman of FreedomWorks, an organization that has been closely aligned with the tea party movement. "We are the biggest source of energy in American politics today."

So the PP seem set on their course, sailing off to La-La Land.  

I go back to my original assessment: the Tea Baggers are driving this.  The party leadership and elected officials in both the GOP and DP are playing catch-up in a political (and economic and social and so on) environment that has completely shifted under their feet in the last five years.  Assuming the Baggers follow through, as they seem to be doing, the GOP targets of the Baggers are going to have to make a decision before the next filing deadline:

Do I run to the Right, risking the votes I NEED to win from the Center?  Do I run to the Left forgetting the GOP base and almost certainly lose the primary?  Do I use my incumbency and all the benefits of incumbency and do A Liberman?

I note Liberman was able to make his decision to run as an Independent due to Connecticut's election laws.  Some states have a Sore Loser Law and that option isn't available once the primary has decided the parties nominee.

I submit my "comfortable resolution" is, as of today, the likely resolution.  I just can't accept the Tea Baggers have enough demographic clout to win state-wide elections outside the South.  The polling isn't there for them.  

Last, I want to point out the "comfortable resolution" isn't what I would like to see.  In my projected re-alignment there's no room for a true Left party to emerge.  :-(

Madness takes its toll. Have exact change ready

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 02:24:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
there's no room for a true Left party to emerge

Agreed.

by Magnifico on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 02:31:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
For a left option to emerge I would say that the a large portion of the current non-voters need to start voting in a concerted manner. This requires organization, which is generally provided by large labor unions. No signs of anything emerging?

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!
by A swedish kind of death on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 02:50:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Labor Union movement in the US is a mess.  There are people trying to fix it but there's some serious problems both within and without.

Right now there's no There, there viz a viz a Left Party.


Madness takes its toll. Have exact change ready

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 02:56:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some of them are going to get kicked out in 2010. Or primaried. If you cut them by a fourth you'll halve their influence.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 03:44:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't understand the interest in exiling the left from power. The present configuration in the US means that the left cannot govern alone, it can only govern in an alliance. Similarly for the right. The idea that by polarizing from the mushy middle and corporatist reformers, the US left can do anything but condemn itself to watching haplessly as the far right continues to build a fascist state is one that seems to have no evidentiary basis.
by rootless2 (redacted) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 04:00:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the answer to that really depends on what definition of "left" it is you're using. Poll after poll shows that on a whole load of subjects the US public is actually generally left of the nominal centre of the Democratic  party, let alone the Beltway village "centre".

not just Kucinich left, more Bernie Sanders left. That seems to be the centre of the US population when they're asked about a lot of issues. But by the time the media get their teeth into public opinion, a whole load of turkeys are voting for christmas.

So, frankly, the left we're normally discussing, which is Netroots left isn't anything I want abandoned cos it ain't even halfway to the American heartland.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 04:30:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But Kucinich didn't break 10% in the Democratic primaries.
by rootless2 (redacted) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 11:45:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Helen:
not just Kucinich left, more Bernie Sanders left. That seems to be the centre of the US population when they're asked about a lot of issues. But by the time the media get their teeth into public opinion, a whole load of turkeys are voting for christmas.
Of his gubernatorial bids, [Upton] Sinclair remarked in 1951: "The American People will take Socialism, but they won't take the label. I certainly proved it in the case of EPIC. Running on the Socialist ticket I got 60,000 votes, and running on the slogan to 'End Poverty in California' I got 879,000. I think we simply have to recognize the fact that our enemies have succeeded in spreading the Big Lie. There is no use attacking it by a front attack, it is much better to out-flank them."


En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 04:01:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't see room in national politics for a Left Party.  I would be eager to be proven wrong!  

I do see a potential for a Left Party gaining Congressional representation in Congressional districts and state wide offices -- good ol' Senator Bernie is a case in point here.  

Problems: the Left isn't organized enough to have the money raising structures in place; the Left doesn't have the communication/media structures in place; there's nobody, that I know of, with the required drive, persistence, and determination to put the 10 to 15 years of work in that needs to be done to pull a Sanders - if you DO know of someone, please tell me.  

Madness takes its toll. Have exact change ready

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 05:32:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is Delaware in the Caribbean?
The US state of Delaware beats all other international financial centres, including the Cayman Islands, in a contest for the most secretive financial jurisdiction, a tax justice rights group said on Saturday.  The United States, led by the eastern seaboard state, took in $2.6 trillion in deposits from non-resident corporations and individuals in 2007, according to a survey of financial jurisdictions analysed by the Tax Justice Network.

Banana deal:

An end is in sight to the world's longest-running trade dispute, involving bananas, and a deal could be in place by the end of the year, senior European and Latin American trade negotiators said on Monday.  Settling the banana dispute would be a fillip for the World Trade Organisation, whose long-running Doha round to free up global commerce, like other trade negotiations, has at times been held hostage by the decades-old row.

A family affair:

Cuba's state-run media on Monday condemned a just-published book in which Fidel Castro's sister admits she spied for the Central Intelligence Agency.  The country's media added that the expose proves that the former Cuban leader was a "victim" of decades of US targeting.


"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 01:29:04 PM EST
Delaware, well-known banana state...

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 03:09:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Full of Banans republicans?

Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell. Frank Borman
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 06:35:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks for these updates maracatu; it's great to regularly hear a voice from the Caribbean with news and insights!
by Nomad on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 03:53:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I've not looked for employment for more than a decade. Over the past 10 years, I've often been on the hiring side, but not on the applying side. I'm trying to resist taking the easy path and staying with the status quo. I had forgotten that job hunting is challenging and a bit overwhelming. Complicating the picture is my desire to leave the U.S. Now is the time to do so.
by Magnifico on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 01:52:24 PM EST
find a good one for me while you're at it.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 01:58:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Let me know if you see anything posted for British Columbia...

And the world will live as one
by Montereyan (robert at calitics dot com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 02:50:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Putin tells EU: You may have to pay to keep gas flowing

EUROPE should "open its wallet" if it wants to avoid a gas crisis this winter, Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin said yesterday, after warning that supplies to the West could be hit if transit country Ukraine could not pay its energy bills.

"If there are problems, we are asking our European colleagues to get involved and lend Ukraine the necessary money. Give them a least a billion. Why be greedy? They (the EU] have the money, so why don't they fork it out?" Mr Putin said.

(...)

A political crisis in Ukraine has also complicated matters.

With president Viktor Yushchenko and prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko at each others' throats in a bitter struggle ahead of presidential elections in January, energy has become a political football.

Hryhory Nemyrya, the deputy prime minister, has already accused Mr Yushchenko of undermining Naftogaz's ability to pay by campaigning against spending cuts.

Mr Putin has also entered the fray by accusing the Ukrainian president, a long-time opponent to Moscow, of risking disruption by allegedly interfering in Ukraine's central bank.

Energy experts point to conflicts between powerful groups in both Ukraine and Russia as another source of friction that threatens supply. "The heart of the matter is a dispute between oligarchs that are trying to capture a very lucrative market," Jerome Guillet, an energy expert concentrating on Eastern Europe, told The Scotsman.

"It is very hard to know what is going on, and the fact that you have a highly unstable situation in Ukraine, with maybe three clans fighting it out, and in Russia you have at least two clans in the Kremlin, makes for a very unstable situation."



In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 02:16:41 PM EST
They make you sound like some think-tank tool...

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 02:27:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Should they make him look like some dick who hasn't got an idea?

For once they're quoting an "expert" who's giving them the right facts and frame.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 02:55:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A busy remainder of the week for me.  Off to Greensboro first thing tomorrow morning to visit the wife's friend and her UMP-loving Parisian husband (but he's a good guy so I don't give him too much crap for it), so we can meet their new baby and help them around the house a bit.

Then to Atlanta Thursday for our other friend's wedding to her right-wing redneck fiance, so I get to spend three days in my favorite city and have it totally wrecked by wingnuts.

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 02:34:48 PM EST
Would like to get the "Sense of the Community."

I'm completely transfixed, today, on the NY-23 election but there's no reason for the ET community, as such, to give one flying fart.

Therefore should I:

  1.  Go Elsewhere

  2.  Localize interest in an ET diary

  3.  Clog-up the Open Thread

I'm comfortable doing any of the three.  I would like to know what the community thinks is best for ET.

(Voting closes in a hour.  :-)

Madness takes its toll. Have exact change ready

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 02:36:22 PM EST
It's not like we're overrun with diaries, so feel free... but the OT is fine as well, if you feel lazy.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 02:45:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No one sez nuffink and I'm a full ten minutes over the limit.

As a so-called editor of this so-called belog, I don't know the answer.

Do a live-blogging shit-kicking diary for those who know WTF it's all about and anyone else who may want to learn?

Some people might end up understanding American political institutions which are awesome but, like, weird? ;)

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 02:50:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, I should have refreshed the page :)

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 02:51:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Write a diary an explain what the election is about. We have enough election geeks here that has no European election to keep track of right now.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!
by A swedish kind of death on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 02:53:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here is a reasonably equanimous ("balanced") outline of partisans' meta-agitprop.

NJ, VA Vote as Palin Stumps in NY | Bloomberg | 3 Nov 2009

Scozzafava, a state Assemblywoman chosen by local Republican leaders to compete in the special election, also was targeted because of her support for same-sex marriage and President Barack Obama's stimulus plan.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich endorsed her, saying the party needed to be more inclusive. Palin and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty lined up behind Hoffman [Conservative Party].

David Carney, a former political director for President George H.W. Bush, said Scozzafava was pressured out by voters, not party leaders.

`Political Elite'

"The political elite missed the point," he said. "It's the voters having a say."

"Elite" inexplicably including innerboobz klatschers who never had the pleasure of either living in NY or venturing beyond Manhattan -- much less NY-23. What's the last TPM story you ever read that profiled NY-23 demos, industry, county tinpots?

I'd forget Palin starring in the catastrophic GOP telenovela cast by MSM. For "the point" being that NY state is populated by a socially and fiscally conservative electorate in the tradition of 18th cen. federalists. Srsly. Pragmatic constituents.

Scozzafava failed, right, before Palin or Pawlenty "succeeded".

On the other hand, the millions with pension and IRAs have been fleeing NYC for climes of lower costs and charms since Dubya came to town. This element's turnout could produce a win for Owens to save status quo.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 04:43:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Everything you need to know about upper New York state can be found in this clip.

by asdf on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 09:31:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If you know anything about it, how about covering CA-10 instead? I think we've all heard plenty on NY-23, and nothing much on the other, despite the fact that CA-10 seems to be a fairly conservative district and John Garamendi looks like a much more useful person to have in Congress than Owen. I guess the media wants to make it looks as though the elections are a setback for Obama, and ignoring CA-10 helps push through that message.
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 03:24:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
4 races! Then the best would be to lose the two Governors and win the House seats.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 03:35:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually, CA-10 may not be that conservative a district, and the likely 50-40 for the Democrat may be closer than it should have been, but it was Republican for quite a while. Or so it seems - you can tell that I just found out about the race today...
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 03:39:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, you know I'm up for it, but being 5 hours ahead of you I'll be in bed and uninterested long before polls close.

The best thing is that, irrespective of whichever candidate wins the poll, you score one for the good guys.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 03:25:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Only one hour! Thanks be that there is an East Coast on the US. Well, this race looks like fun. But if the conservatives sweep the three races this evening I don't think it'll be very good news. Best result would be a close dem win in NY-23 to keep the teabaggers motivated, plus a win in either NJ or VA. I gather VA is unlikely and for some reasons I'd hope for a NJ loss. Good if you can point to toxicity of Goldman Sachs.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 03:29:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't give a flying fart about NY23, but I am curious about your commentary on it.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 03:33:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The votes are in, the die is cast, and the diary is up.

Madness takes its toll. Have exact change ready
by ATinNM on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 04:28:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Transfixed?

Last I checked, that wasn't looking even close, save one poll from (I think) Sienna.

Best case scenario: NY-23 is a sign of things to come, and that is all-out civil war in the GOP.

Deeds -- oi, Deeds -- is gonna get creamed.

Only race of serious interest is Corzine.

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 06:56:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Jermey Grantham's Just Deserts and Markets Being Silly Again

(you'll have to register to read in full)


I can imagine the company representatives on the Titanic II design committee repeatedly pointing out that the Titanic I tragedy was a black swan event: utterly unpredictable and completely, emphatically, not caused by any failures of the ship's construction, of the company's policy, or of the captain's competence. "No one could have seen this coming," would have been their constant refrain. Their response would have been to spend their time pushing for more and improved lifeboats. In itself this is a good idea, and that is the trap: by working to mitigate the pain of the next catastrophe, we allow ourselves to downplay the real causes of the disaster and thereby invite another one. And so it is today with our efforts to redesign the financial system in order to reduce the number and severity of future crises.

After a crisis, if you don't want to waste time on palliatives, you must begin with an open and frank admission of failure. The Titanic, for example, was just too big and therefore too complicated for the affordable technology of its day. Given White Star Line's unwillingness to spend, she was under-designed. The ship also suffered from agency problems: the passengers bore the risk of unnecessary speed and overconfidence in "too big to sink!" while the captain stood to be rewarded for breaking the speed record. No captain is ever rewarded for merely delivering his passengers alive. Greenspan, nearly 100 years later in his short-lived "irrational exuberance" phase, did not enjoy being metaphysically slapped by the Senate Subcommittee for threatening the then speedy progress of the economy. What is needed in this typical type of agency problem is for the agent on those rare occasions when it really matters, whether a ship's captain or a Fed boss, to stop boot licking and say, "No, this is wrong. It is just too risky. I won't go along."

He quotes Minsky, berates proprietary trading and too-big-too-fail, and focuses on complexity above all.

In a separate text in the same link, he also notes that resource constraints are likely to be one of the causes of the end of the current rally, and he notes how discussions of these have completely disappeared from the debate...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 03:18:43 PM EST
The Chinese send their warmest regards:
At a  former al-Qaida stronghold southeast of the Afghan capital, a state-owned Chinese company is at work on a $3 billion mine project to tap one of the world's largest unexploited copper reserves, a potential financial boon for an impoverished country mired in war.


"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 03:23:57 PM EST
NYT: Berkshire Bets on U.S. With Purchase of Railroad

Berkshire Hathaway, the investment vehicle of Warren E. Buffett, said on Tuesday that it planned to buy the 77.4 percent of Burlington Northern Santa Fe it did not already own for $26 billion in cash and stock, in the largest deal in Berkshire history.

The deal, which including Berkshire's previous investment and the assumption of $10 billion in Burlington Northern debt brings the total value to $44 billion, represents what Mr. Buffett said was a big bet on the United States. He told CNBC in an interview that railroad operators cannot do well unless American businesses were producing goods and customers were buying them.

"It's an all-in wager on the economic future of the United States," he said in a written statement. "I love these bets."

To me this means Buffett is betting that America will still burning western state coal, rather than American manufacturing.

Buffett said that the deal came together quickly. He made a proposal to Matthew K. Rose, Burlington Northern's chairman and chief executive. Mr. Rose took the proposal to his board -- and got an answer in about 15 minutes...

Shares in Burlington Northern, which closed Monday at $76.07, jumped nearly 30 percent in premarket trading on Tuesday to $98.15. Class A shares in Berkshire were up slightly in premarket trading at $98,971.57...

Burlington Northern was advised by Goldman Sachs, Evercore Partners and the law firm Cravath Swaine & Moore. Berkshire was advised by the law firm Munger, Tolles & Olson.

Funny how Buffett's Goldman Sachs advised BNSF to agree.

by Magnifico on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 03:26:01 PM EST
Hidden on the money comment of the month (to date, and likely both last and next months as well)...

Funny how Buffett's Goldman Sachs advised BNSF to agree.

I don't know why we allow these Goldman trolls to post on the site.  What's "Good for Goldman is Good for the United States."

......

Aside --  All the best on job search.

Skennah Kowa

by Crazy Horse on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 03:55:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
betting that America will still burning western state coal

For fairness, coal is not even the majority of BNSF's income:

On the other hand, much of the industrial products transported aren't Made in America, but imports unloaded at Pacific ports transported inland...

Funny how Buffett's Goldman Sachs advised BNSF to agree.

Hm? According to Wikipedia, he has only a 10% share.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 02:16:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]


En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 04:40:35 PM EST


En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 04:57:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Could you explain why both graphs seem to show an accelerated number of bank failures after 2008?

Skennah Kowa
by Crazy Horse on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 05:04:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's called the crisis in pictures :P

There was a long period (30 months) of quiescence. Before that there was the effect of the dot-com crash. After that there is the effect of the subprime crisis.

The subprime crisis is a large cascading failure, which the earlier crisis wasn't. So you can see it accelerate - the more banks have failed, the more are at risk of failing. Note that early 2008 is the first time more than one bank was closed over the same weekend.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 05:12:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
wondered about that too.

After all:

Growth in an industry is good.
Therefore: growth in bank failures is good.

(I'm bucking for a spot on Fox.)

:-)

Madness takes its toll. Have exact change ready

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 05:37:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Before 2004, the economy was not in a self-organised critical state. After 2007 it was.

The long period of quiescence (coinciding with the credit expansion phase of the subprime bubble) set the conditions for cascading failure.

Somehow, the dot-com bubble was of a different character.

It would be interesting to align these charts with the money supply...

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 05:41:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
See my diary on the money supply.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 05:45:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Because Obama was elected?
by asdf on Tue Nov 3rd, 2009 at 09:32:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The label "2008" marks January 1st, so maybe it was because Obama won in Iowa?

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 03:53:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Spot the hockey stick...
by Nomad on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 03:53:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But there was no sample selection involved...

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 03:56:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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