European Tribune - Community, Politics & Progress.

Mark Steyn’s World Meets Reality

by Nomad
Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 06:48:42 AM EST

Little wonder Mark Steyn and his demagogue on “Eurabia” haven’t been able to make much noise these days. Beside the fact that Steyn's recent epistles drone on about local (Canadian) affairs, demographic numbers Steyn has been relying on for his worldview are undercutting his own arguments.

In those European countries where personal religion is still being registered and monitored (cough) the available trends effectively stack up the evidence against Steyn’s posturing that:

The future belongs to Islam | Macleans.ca - Canada - Features

On the Continent and elsewhere in the West, native populations are aging and fading and being supplanted remorselessly by a young Muslim demographic.

[Europe.Is.Doomed™ Alert]!

Not so long ago here, numbers from Germany (in a diary by PeWi) documented how integration of Muslim immigrants (first and second generation) is working just fine.

The CBS (Statistics Netherlands) in the Netherlands, is a treasure trove for data on trends in demographics in the Netherlands. The figure below represents the percentage of frequent attendance (once a month) to religious services by people who have claimed to belong to a certain faith. Legend: Katholieken = Catholics, Protestanten = Protestant, Islamieten = Muslims, Overige gezindten = Other. The light blue bar represents the 1998-1999 period; the dark blue bar represents 2004-2008. And what do we see?

Over this 2004-2008 period, Muslims show the largest drop in attending a religious service, even more than the decrease for the Catholics. In fact, Muslims are now less reliable than protestant people to frequently attend a religious service. The Muslim demographic Steyn fears so much is becoming less Muslim and suggests that secularization of Islam is in full swing in the Netherlands. Just as it is for those “traditional” western faiths.

Source: CBS.

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Mark Steyn’s World Meets Reality | 92 comments (92 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

One more graph (4.00 / 5)

for the collection.

This data was already available since past summer - so while it's not exactly breaking news, I found it relevant enough for some wider exposure.

by Nomad on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 06:50:57 AM EST

Re: Mark Steyn's World Meets Reality (none / 1)

Can I point out that even if Mark Steyn was right statistically he'd be dead wrong?

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 08:00:01 AM EST

As a reminder (none / 1)

there are no "Muslims" in France.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 08:30:03 AM EST

Re: As a reminder (none / 0)

If you ask someone in France whether they're a Muslim you'll never get a "yes" for an answer?

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 08:54:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As a reminder (4.00 / 2)

What's the value of a "Yes"? Most people in France will self-identify as Catholics. That covers a vast range of possibilities including almost total non-practice, agnosticism, even atheism. What's to be gained by marshalling such self-definition into religious group statistics? What kind of ideologues are most eager to use such stats?

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 09:09:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As a reminder (none / 0)

afew:

Most people in France will self-identify as Catholics.

Would Jérôme say that "There are no 'Christians' in France", too?

I guess the point is that "There are no 'Muslims' in France" depending on the meaning of "There are" and "Muslim".

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 09:11:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As a reminder (none / 0)

What seems to be at issue is whether Jérôme shouldn't phrase his remarks less provocatively?

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 09:25:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As a reminder (none / 0)

What seems to be an issue is whether self-identification is meaningful in France.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 09:40:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As a reminder (none / 0)

Why in France? I think its value is very relative anywhere.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 09:48:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As a reminder (none / 0)

Jérôme didn't say "there are no Muslims anywhere". Specifically, he didn't say "there are no Muslims in the Netherlands" in reaction to the Dutch statistics in the diary.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 09:50:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As a reminder (none / 0)

So we're back to Jérôme being provocative.

I still think religious self-identification is extremely relative.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 10:00:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As a reminder (none / 0)

Whereas state-assigned/sanctioned identifications are absolute.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 10:03:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As a reminder (none / 0)

I'm a bit tired of not being able to discuss this kind of thing with you and Nomad without being taken for an official representative of French attitudes that you find ridiculous.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 10:11:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm not provocative (none / 0)

but I'm surprised that you don't see the double standard.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 10:25:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm not provocative (none / 0)

Agreed, you're an ideologue.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 10:39:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I'll be as silly as you: (none / 0)

No, you are.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 11:11:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

If I understand (none / 0)

Jerome's drift correctly, he'd say that too...

Took me awhile to get it.

I still think that as a consequence of France's secularism it is silly, but that's just my own value judgement.

by Nomad on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 09:35:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Of course there are Muslims in France (none / 1)

it's just not their predominant characteristic, not their defining one, and it is incorrect to label them as such.

There are tennis players in France, but it's not a label that's often used to define groups and assign violent political meaning to.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 11:14:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Of course there are Muslims in France (none / 0)

That would be an interesting empirical question: how many French people would answer in the affirmative to "do you define yourself as a Muslim/Christian/Tennis Player"?

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 11:31:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

That´s the choice (none / 1)

France has made: that someone´s religion is neither the predominant characteristic nor the defining one.
Yet it now strikes me that an effect of such choice is that, say, the rate of actual secularisation no longer can be tracked in France. (Because the state is secular, everyone is by definition?)

So I think the question I´m left with is: are there ways to track secularisation in France at all? afew suggests sampling attendance rates of religious gatherings.

Or is even trying to track secularisation considered incorrect in itself - because it would automatically turn into mapping religious groupings?

by Nomad on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 12:01:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That´s the choice (none / 1)

the rate of actual secularisation no longer can be tracked in France

At the level of confessions, can it be tracked well anywhere? For the Dutch statistics, too, it is a question who is a "Muslim" or "Catholic". It may well be that people with the exact same beliefs are counted in the "atheist/agnostic/non-religious" bin when they were born of Protestant parents, but still counted as "Muslim" when they were born to, say, Tunisian parents.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 02:41:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well (none / 0)

It's all well and good to question the methodology behind the Dutch numbers.

The point is that, as far as I understand things right now, we couldn't even compare the Dutch example with a French one.

by Nomad on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 04:03:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well (none / 0)

It's all well and good to question the methodology behind the Dutch numbers.

Should I start a separate discussion on that with the same question in a top-level comment? It is certainly topical to the diary.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 04:09:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well (4.00 / 5)

There is one thing you could do in France, though, and that would be to look at the Civil Registry and tally the names of newborns and their parents. Though that wouldn't strictly tell you anything about religiosity it would tell you about assimilation.

This tehnique of looking at how given names change within a community has been used by historians to study the process of conversion to/from Islam over the centuries of Muslim presence in Spain from the 8th to the 16th century. Apparently the process of conversion of Christian Roman/Visigothic population to Islam took 200 years and as the Christian Kingdoms expanded southwards conversion of Muslims to Christianity took 200 years as well after Christian conquest. (Source: Richard Fletcher's Moorish Spain, briefly mentioned here).

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 04:14:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well (none / 0)

Any methodological information in the Dutch source?

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 04:16:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well (none / 1)

The graph comes from this pdf with 15 chapters (in Dutch) but methodology is absent.

The English webpage of CBS on methodologies is here but is not worth much. The Dutch one looks very extensive.

Not my cup of tea, though.

by Nomad on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 05:25:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well (none / 0)

Thanks. I'm trying to find relevant parts. So far I only found out that the numbers come from polls of 5000 people (not from census numbers).

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 04:59:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well (4.00 / 3)

I find chapter 4, sections 1-4 are just about the issue of counting Muslims. They describe the earlier Dutch method of counting based on census, which was indeed based on ethnicity of immigrants and their descendants -- albeit a bit more sophisticated, by including an assumed secularisation rate. They argue it had to be abandoned because the assumption that the ratio of religions among immigrants from one country is the same as for the whole population of the home country was totally off.

Recent estimates are based on those 5000-man polls, and seem to be self-reported. Thus the diagram in your diary is consistent (coming from the same polls). The pdf mentions that the poll method, too, has been criticised: differential willingness to answer pollsters' question could be a factor. They argue that these criticisms are countered by some studies on second-generation immigrants, and that weighting can compensate the effect; however, I am not sure I understood their argument.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 05:45:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well (none / 1)

DoDo:

The pdf mentions that the poll method, too, has been criticised: differential willingness to answer pollsters' question could be a factor.

That is a common methodological problem with all surveys, of course.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 05:58:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well (none / 1)

Yep, and it is heightened when one sub-sample is small (e.g. here Muslim immigrants from a certain country).

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 06:03:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well (4.00 / 2)

They argue that these criticisms are countered by some studies on second-generation immigrants, and that weighting can compensate the effect; however, I am not sure I understood their argument.

To be more explicit: the article seems to imply thst unwillingness or inability (due to language) to answer polls is a problem chiefly among first-generation immigrants. I don't get how studies on the secularisation of second-generation immigrants enables to control that in any way by weighting. But, I only read via Google trnalate -- Nomad, could you read that section (chapter 4, section 3, page 36-37) more thoroughly and 'report' if you 'got' more out of it?

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 06:09:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well (none / 1)

And with how many other available statistics in other countries?

I don't understand this assumption that there are easily-available, reliable, and comparable statistics for everywhere but France, where it's supposedly forbidden to study religion in society.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 04:23:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well (none / 0)

There is the Eurobarometer 66 (2006) which includes the items:

THE PLACE OF RELIGION IN SOCIETY
ATTITUDES TOWARDS HOMOSEXUALITY
THE CONTRIBUTION OF IMMIGRANTS TO SOCIETY

and the Eurobarometer 42 (1995) which includes a section on religious beliefs.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 04:48:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well (none / 1)

I never wrote that, nor assumed it.

The question I posed: can secularisation be tracked in a country where religious groups are not registered, and if so, how could it?

It's an interesting puzzle, and I hoped to learn more about France through it. I don't have the feeling I'm getting anything out of this, though.

by Nomad on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 05:26:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well (4.00 / 3)

The question I posed: can secularisation be tracked in a country where religious groups are not registered, and if so, how could it?

Sure. The NZ Census for example asks "what religion do you identify as" and provides a checklist (including "no religion" and "object to state"). And from that simple question, asked over decades, the trend of secularisation in New Zealand is very clear.

Of course, that requires the government to ask about religion, which e.g. the French would object to. But if they won't, there's nothing stopping a private entity, such as a university social science department, from asking a similar question, or one including a question on whether someone attended a service in the last week. They'd need a few thousand respondents to get good subsample sizes, but that's not beyond them. And I'd be surprised if someone isn't doing it...

by IdiotSavant on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 09:57:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well (none / 0)

Well, in France, non-state affiliated social sciences lab in private universities are very few and far between...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 02:27:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That´s the choice (4.00 / 2)

Nomad:

afew suggests sampling attendance rates of religious gatherings.

I didn't suggest it, I noted that that was what your statistics were about.

I also said I think (haven't got any hard evidence) that religious groups in France track attendance (though they may be tempted to overstate, so as to influence the government by claiming a greater following than they have), also that opinion pollsters may study the same question. It's not forbidden.

What I said for sure is that real attendance figures can take the hot air out of the supposed importance of religion in our societies. Which has been imposed on us since American hawks, neocons, Likudniks, and culture warriors, decided that splitting the world into conflicting religious groups was the new new Cold War.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 03:30:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Erm (none / 0)

Would Jérôme say that "There are no 'Christians' in France", too?

Yes.

And funnily enough, the English media agrees, as they never ever refer to "Christians" when they talk about French people.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 10:03:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Erm (none / 0)

Somebody forgot to inform these people: http://www.la-communaute-des-chretiens.org/

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 10:07:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As a reminder (4.00 / 2)

What's to be gained by marshalling such self-definition into religious group statistics?

To show that Mark Steyn is full of BS?

What kind of ideologues are most eager to use such stats?

I don't know what kind of ideologist I am. I'm still using them. What kind of ideologist am I?

And just to note: CBS is a quango.

by Nomad on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 09:29:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As a reminder (none / 0)

The eager ideologue is Mark Steyn, wishing to build sharply-defined religious groups to justify his BS.

Also, the stats you're using are on "regular attendance" at a place of worship, which is likely to produce more homogenous groups than plain self-identification on "what religion are you?" lines.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 09:45:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As a reminder (none / 0)

Are there no "regular mosque attendees" in France, either?

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 09:47:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As a reminder (none / 0)

Migeru:

If you ask someone in France whether they're a Muslim you'll never get a "yes" for an answer?

was your question above.

As for regular attendance figures, they are probably kept by the authorities of different religions (and opinion pollsters). The numbers should no doubt deflate the apparent importance of religion in society and contradict those who seek to sow hysteria in dividing us into conflicting religious groups (as Nomad shows above).

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 09:56:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As a reminder (none / 0)

That was my rhetorical question in response to Jérôme's outlandish(*) claim that "there are no Muslims in France".

(*) Being patently false on its face unless "In France, there are" is forced to adopt a nonstandard meaning.

We've been through this before several times. Who are we enacting this ridiculous kabuki for? Casual visitors to the website who haven't encountered our earlier debates on Jacobinism?

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 10:02:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As a reminder (none / 1)

What kabuki? I think we disagree, that's all.

BTW, though I don't agree with Jérôme's provocative style, he put scare quotes round "Muslims" to mean, I suppose, that there is no such official category.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 10:08:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As a reminder (none / 0)

Sorry, I forgot the word Muslim requires "scare" quotes in France.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 10:10:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As a reminder (none / 0)

How about reading what I say?

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 10:13:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As a reminder (none / 1)

Now you are aggressively misinterpreting the meaning of those scare quotes.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 02:45:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As a reminder (4.00 / 2)

re: Who are we enacting this ridiculous kabuki for?

Vive la Lily!

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 10:10:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As a reminder (none / 0)

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 10:11:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As a reminder (none / 0)

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 12:58:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

My position is no more outlandish (none / 0)

than what we hear all the time fro mthe other side.

Call it pulling back the Overton window away from the bigots and clasj-of-civilizationers.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 10:13:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My position is no more outlandish (none / 0)

Gah.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 10:22:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Err? (none / 0)

What's the correct policy which is being distorted by the press in this case, in your view?

That France should abandon its secular model in favor of the oh-so-successful US-style hyphenated-communatarianism?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 10:28:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Err? (none / 1)

No rational discussion can take place around immigration/integration policy as long as people are busy moving the overton window with outlandish claims in either direction. You, for one, refuse the mere possibility of actually using data of any description on religious demographics. And you're happy to admit your position is outlandish because it is no more outlandish that Mark Steyn's (like saying "at least we're better than Bush" or "Bush was better than Saddam", which you don't think it a tenable position).

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 10:38:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Isn't that nice (none / 0)

whenever you're out of arguments, you say "there can be no rational discusion on this topic, etc..."

The fact is that more Americans (as a percentage of the relevant population) say they are Christians first and Americans second than French people say they are Muslim first, and French second.

So when "Christians" is the widely accepted word to describe white Americans, I'll stop complaining about the word "Muslim" being used to describe France's Arab and African communities.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 11:10:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Bah, humbug (none / 0)

I'll stop complaining about the word "Muslim" being used to describe France's Arab and African communities

You reacted to a report on Dutch quasi-official (quango) statistics with "there are no muslims in France", which is a non-sequitur.

If you claim "these statistics are meaningless in my worldview" there's no retional debate possible around the statistics. We just run around in circles chasing worldviews and there is no common starting point for you and I to talk about integration or integration policy, in part because it is not possible for you to state or answer the question "are Muslims integrated in France" since "are Muslims in France" is meaningless.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 11:26:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bah, humbug (4.00 / 2)

Yet again, you forgot the scare quotes.

I don't think Jérôme has anything against sociology studies using a more differentiated categorisation than "Muslim". And I think it is a legitimate question about the Dutch study, too, how they identified someone as "Muslim" or "Catholic" -- there might be differences there which make the interconfessionary comparison of church attendance meaningless.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 02:49:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

My point is (none / 0)

that the relevant question is "are Arabs integrating in France," not "are Muslims integrating in France.

Racism and other integration obstacles are linked to their being Arab, not to their being Muslim. The label "Muslim" is one that's only been used since 9/11 and is part of the vocabulary of the War on Terra.

Thus, we should not help promote that narrative.

But feel free to reinforce the stereotype immgrant = Muslim = terrorist. You're just playing into the hands of the scaremongering hard right.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 04:31:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My point is (none / 0)

Jerome a Paris:

But feel free to reinforce the stereotype immgrant = Muslim = terrorist. You're just playing into the hands of the scaremongering hard right.

I challenge you to quote me on that.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 05:07:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Let's (4.00 / 4)

stress that the focus of this diary was primarily on Dutch secularization as evidence against Steyn's scaremongering. Or at least I hoped it would be.

It was not on integration - these are not the same 2 things, unless secularization is counted as a part of integration. (Considering how fast the Netherlands are secularising, it could perhaps be considered as such but no matter.) PeWi's diary I linked to was more on integration.

Lastly, records of the use of the label Muslim was already widely in use in the Netherlands prior to 2001 - see for instance the use in a selection of pre-2001 books. So I don't see your point, unless you're strictly speaking for France, and I for the Netherlands.

If you'd argue that the label has been perverted since 9/11, I'm with you. But I disagree that we should abandon it because of that.

I'm sure there are studies of integration in the Netherlands divided up by cultural origin or original home country - which I think is the correct way how integration should be looked at. And if I'd come across it I could post it here - unless I keep having the impression it will turn into another bitch fest about definitions between countries / worldviews...

by Nomad on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 05:56:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Let's (4.00 / 2)

If secularisation is a trait of a society, then the secularisation of immigrnts is a marker of integration, and you directed thinking that way by thematising Mark Steyn's Eurabia fear.

I'm sure there are studies of integration in the Netherlands divided up by cultural origin or original home country

The pdf you lifted the church attendance diagram from does refer to such on multiple occasions.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 06:01:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Let's (4.00 / 2)

But if the home country of the immigrants is also undergoing secularization, then what?
"Le rendez-vous des civilisations" by E.TODD and Y.COURBAGE-World Religion Watch

Youssef Courbage, who is Lebanese, is a researcher at the French national institute of demographic studies. He served for a long time as an expert with the United Nations and has fulfilled many foreign missions in the Middle East and North Africa.
Now, with his colleague Emmanuel Todd, he predicts the modernisation of the Islamic world and the birth, after Islamism, of a "de-Islamicised Muslim world" -following the patterns of the Christian West and the Buddhist Far East.
...
Demographic factors also reveal that Muslim societies are in the course of a demographic transition with the rates of illiteracy and birth decreasing to levels similar to those of Western societies. Moreover, these elements are leading to rising individualism in the Muslim world. Demographic analysis thus enables them to reject the theory claiming that there are substantive differences between formerly Christian societies and Muslim societies.
...
Emmanuel Todd predicts a period after Islamism: a de-Islamicised Muslim world, while Y.Courbage focuses more on secularization, not without a certain ambivalence, because this in fact means a form of secularization simultaneous with a resurgence in religiosity. These societies are in transition religiously.

See also here.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 06:10:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Let's (none / 1)

Well, I think unless the level (not rate) of the two secularisations is synchronised, that's irrelevant, e.g. won't change the status of immigrant secularisation as an indicator of integration. And even if they are synchronised, it is a question whether one is influenced more by developments in the society you left or the one you live in. (Not to mention developments in the local community you live in, ghettoised or not.)

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 06:23:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Let's (none / 1)

I'd like to see a model of that. Too many variables to claim irrelevance of one of the correlations among them.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 06:29:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Let's (none / 1)

The "irrelevance" pertains to the question of whether or not the level of immigrant secularisation [relative to the general population] is a marker of integration (which your reply countered), not to the level of immigrant secularisation itself.

To sum up: if home country and host country levels of secularisation differ, the level of immigrant secularisation is a marker of integration, whatever the change in the level of secularisation in both societies.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 01:32:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No (4.00 / 2)

I'll quote Mark Steyn again:

On the Continent and elsewhere in the West, native populations are aging and fading and being supplanted remorselessly by a young Muslim demographic.

Bold mine. The Muslim part is the only point the diary factually addresses.

The ensuing debate has conflated integration with secularisation.

This does not say anything about me directing thinking. Perhaps it does say something about sensitised issues and / or hobby horses of respondents in this discussion.

I'm however irritated enough by now that I am going to direct my energy elsewhere for the time being.

by Nomad on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 07:38:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No (4.00 / 6)

Eh, this blowup happens every time (this must be the 5th time I'm watching it) and is the result of incommensurable political frames of French unitarism and Spanish regionalism. There are a lot of interesting elements and facts in this discussion, the only problem is that the players are irritated with what they view as incomprehension and start to assume bad faith.

I will note a few things:

The Dutch have been talking about Muslims pretty much through the latter half of the ninetees. And maybe before, but before I wasn't paying attention. For us, talking about Muslims is not new. Nor is it new for the US press to talk about problems with Muslims in Europe, including France.
The unitary idea/myth of France and the fiction of equality, combined with the thorough meritocracy of France, have better effects for integration of minorities than the policies of other countries. The problems of French minorities are poverty problems and are as much due to poor urban planning as to racism, with religion hardly figuring in.
This does not mean, however, that the French system can be transplanted to wildly different political cultures. And that means that steps in the direction of the French system may well have negative effects on integration in countries like Spain, the UK and the Netherlands. Integration is a complex problem with a long history.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 08:07:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No (none / 0)

I see that you already made the point about the Dutch discourse above.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 08:32:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No (4.00 / 5)

That's a fair summary of things. I'd just would like to note that I'm certainly not trying to push the French model on anyone else, just pushing back against people who say the model doesn't work or is bad.

Then there is the partly separate point that by accepting to talk about immigrants in Europe exclusively through the lens of religion, we fall in the cals of civilisations narrative. That's what my "there are no Muslims in France" quip is trying to convey, ie that the very real issues surrounding these bits of the population are usually not predominantly driven by their religion, but by other factors. The religious factor exists, and of course there are people of the Muslim faith in France, but talking about them, and describing them exclusively as Muslims is, in my view, a political mistake.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 08:58:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No (none / 1)

It hardly surprises me that the statement "there are no Muslims in France" was perceived to be off-putting, confounding and/or dismissive, as well as factually untrue, except in certain specific idealized frames. Given the history of this issue on ET, of which this is at least the second example I have seen, it is hardly surprising that it seemed to exacerbate the discussion. In these situations "quips" can be detonators.

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer at eurotrib.com) on Sat Nov 7th, 2009 at 12:41:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No (none / 1)

On the Continent and elsewhere in the West, native populations are aging and fading and being supplanted remorselessly by a young Muslim demographic.
Bold mine. The Muslim part is the only point the diary factually addresses.

Nomad, just in that quote, Mark Steyn is defining immigrants [and their descendants] as "Muslim", the very practice Jérôme rails against.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 01:36:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

And so what? (none / 0)

I am seriously pissed off with you now.

One more time:

The Muslim part is the only point the diary factually addresses.

What is your point? That there is a suggestion I'm thinking the same way like Steyn does on immigrants?

I write what I write. You think what you think - and that has nothing to do with me. I would much prefer it if you could refrain from making allegations that I am "directing thinking".

I am sick to the teeth with this diary and your commentary.

by Nomad on Sat Nov 7th, 2009 at 07:22:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And so what? (none / 0)

What is your point? That there is a suggestion I'm thinking the same way like Steyn does on immigrants?

No. But if I can't get my point across repeatedly, I better desist.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Sat Nov 7th, 2009 at 12:32:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Isn't that nice (none / 0)

Jerome a Paris:

The fact is that more Americans (as a percentage of the relevant population) say they are Christians first and Americans second than French people say they are Muslim first, and French second.

By definition, since nobody ever asks French people whether they are Muslim, according to you.

Do you have statistics about the number of people who claim to be Christian first and American second?

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 11:36:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

US Data (none / 1)

Poll: For Christians' identity, it's faith first, U.S. second - CNN.com

The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll found that of the 750 Christians in the survey, 59 percent identify themselves first by their faith, then as Americans, while 36 percent described themselves in the reverse.
CNN's findings are not that different from those in a recent Pew Research Center poll on Muslim-American attitudes. In that poll, 47 percent of Muslims in America say they are Muslim first, American second. Younger Muslims were especially likely to feel that way: 60 percent of them responded they were Muslim first.
CNN's research also found that Americans are now less likely to see the possibility for peace between Islam and Christianity. Of the total 1,029 adult Americans polled, 53 percent say conflict is inevitable between the two religions, up from 45 percent in 2003.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 11:42:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Data (none / 0)

Report from 2007. Kudos to Migeru for the post.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 03:35:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The numbers have been posted on ET (none / 0)

I just can't dig them up, and it's not by lack of trying. It was a Pew center or equivalent multi-country poll. I'll find it eventually.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 04:28:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The numbers have been posted on ET (none / 0)

One million American Muslims are Muslims first, Americans second - Jihad Watch

Today I intend, as much as time permits, to highlight a few of the findings from the Pew Research Center poll of American Muslims. Here is the first: 47% of what Pew says are 2.35 million Muslims in America, or a little more than one million Muslims, consider themselves to be Muslims first, Americans second. The other bars in the graph above show that to be a much lower percentage than in Britain, Germany, and Spain: 81% of Muslims in Britain consider themselves to be Muslims first; 66% in Germany, and 69% in Spain. In France, as under fire as it is for not assimilating its Muslim immigrants (although they have resisted assimilation at every step), it's 46%.

The link is to the Pew study (PDF) - excuse the jihadwatch sourcing but that's what google spits out.

Interesting that a report called "American Muslims: Middle Class and Mostly Mainstream" is spun by some people as showing that American Muslims are scary.

But the really interesting thing is the CNN poll showing that American Christians are more likely than Muslims to identify with their religious community first.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 04:56:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The numbers have been posted on ET (none / 0)

How well are French Muslims integrated? Pretty well by Jerome a Paris on August 25th, 2006

Apparently "French Muslims" do exist.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 05:06:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

"French Muslims" do exist (none / 0)

Since you keep on ignoring my point I'll just shut up.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 07:29:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Data (none / 1)

France IS different on the topic of religion

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 05:26:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Data (none / 0)

You still have that 1 in 5 "French Muslims" and 6/11 of all French think French Muslims "want to be distinct". In fact, you're in a 5:6 minority among Frenchmen in thinking "French Muslims" "don't want to be distinct".

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 05:37:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

True (none / 0)

but the relevant question is whether they "should" integrate common values, and what's included in these common values.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 04:33:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: True (none / 0)

That's not an empirical question and, on it, I'm actually agnostic.

Since I dislike being told what my values should be, I am not in the business of prescribing values for other people.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 05:16:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As a reminder (none / 0)

The same goes in the US. For most, actual religious practice is barely on the radar - working / consuming is the focus.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 10:40:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Heh (none / 0)

So whatever Steyn says about hordes of breeding Muslims, it will never apply to France anyway.

Cheeky. :)

by Nomad on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 08:54:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mark Steyn's World Meets Reality (none / 1)

One thing I was amazed to learn from the pdf Nomad linked was that in 2008, by self-reported belonging to a religious confession, Catholics waaay outnumber Protestants (being exactly half of all belonging to a confession). Was there no Catholic Scare in the Dutch Bible Belt, something paralleling the Muslim Scare?

On the other hand, another thing about the diagram in the diary is that even ten years ago, Catholics had the lowest attendance record. Which is funny, given that for Catholics, weekly church attendance is supposed to be a duty, unlike for Protestants. But, I suspect this only reflects a selection effect: in the process of secularisation, Catholics moving away from religion are less likely to cut formal ties with the Church. Hence, my question: do Catholics have some form of church tax or another form of dependence binding people to a centralised bureaucracy?

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 06:16:41 AM EST

Re: Mark Steyn's World Meets Reality (4.00 / 3)

There's no state-run tax similar to the one in Germany as far as I know. The Catholic attendence number is less surprising given that the Dutch Catholic Church doesn't really listen to Rome and the mainstream of Dutch Protestantism was on the other hand quite strict.

There was a Catholic scare periodically until the late 1960s, after that, broad secularisation set in and people stopped caring.

I have no idea how the Dutch bible belt feels. Presumably they're happy inside their own little bubble. Or, perhaps, many are miserable, but the leaders are happy.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 06:34:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Demographics of French Muslims & Catholics (4.00 / 3)

And religious practices.

http://www.ifop.com/media/pressdocument/48-1-document_file.pdf

by vladimir on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 11:57:55 AM EST

Re: Demographics of French Muslims (none / 1)

Thanks. This appears to mirror of the Dutch study presentzed by Nomad rather well: it was conducted by the statistical office, compares longer-term trends, and is based on a poll [albeit only of 950 people].

Can we finally put the French vs. other statistics debate to a rest?

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 01:42:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Demographics of French Muslims Catholics (none / 1)

This comparison between Catholics and Muslims (including secular children of religious families) is interesting:

That is, while the ratio between practising and non-practising believers is different, the percentage of non-believers is almost the same.

There is age, too, for example on the example of daily prayer:

On the other hand, the trend is different from the Dutch one: big drop in 1993, then slow rise since in most statistics of religious practice among French Muslims.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 02:02:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Mark Steyn’s World Meets Reality | 92 comments (92 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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