European Tribune - Community, Politics & Progress.

Tory nuts crawling out of the woodwork

by nanne
Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 09:43:53 AM EST

Nicolas Sarkozy was watching out for Dave when he said "it's stupid, you're giving yourself headaches", over the move to the European Conservatives and Reformists group in the European Parliament. Dave surely got his share of headaches with Hannan and Kaminsky. And plenty of trouble with the eurosceptic wing in his party.

It's certainly tempting to out-concern-troll Sarkozy and say that Dave will have to deal with the eurosceptics before the general elections. But who are these people, how many are they, and what influence do they have?

Today, David Davis, who stood against Dave in the Tory leadership contest and now acts as shadow home secretary, came out with completely outlandish demands for a UK referendum on a 'negotiating mandate' that a Tory government would 'take to the European Union':

The sort of things we might include are: recovering control over our criminal justice, asylum and immigration policies; a robust opt-out of the European Charter of Fundamental Rights; serious exemptions to the seemingly endless flood of European regulations which cost the UK economy billions of pounds each year; a recovery of our rights to negotiate on trade; exemption from European interference into trade in services and foreign direct investment rules; and an exemption from any restrictions on our foreign policy.

He's being joined by (who else) Daniel Hannan in the Telegraph, and, according to BBC News, eurosceptic MP Bill Cash. William Hague, however, is keeping his eyes on the ball and his message in line with the party. The Sun and the Times (Murdoch) also have Dave's back.

So I doubt that the eurosceptic revolt is going very far. But, meanwhile, UKIP leader Nigel Farage is saying:

Mr Hague says it is 'no longer possible' to have a referendum. Well, to me and millions of others it is apparent that it is no longer possible to trust the Tory party or David Cameron when they make promises about Europe.

Could the Tories once again lose a general election over the EU, either by internal division or due to a UKIP spoiler campaign?

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Tory nuts crawling out of the woodwork | 28 comments (28 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Worries, worries (4.00 / 3)

Also see Nosemonkey on Hannan and democracy.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 09:50:46 AM EST

Re: Tory nuts crawling out of the woodwork (4.00 / 3)

Given the UK's medieval "first past the post" electoral system, it is quite conceivable that the Tories could yet lose the next General election if the UKIP and the BNP could siphon off c. 20% of the vote that might otherwise go t the Tories. Thus Davis' proposal is deeply dangerous for Dave - it is little short of a demand for a complete re-negotiation of UK EU membership - and a referendum to secure a mandate for same. Given popular (largely media induced) hostility to the EU, the absence of some kind of EU related referendum from the Tory Manifesto would make this a real danger.

But what happens if the EU responds with a flat NO - which I deeply hope it would do? What then? A referendum on withdrawal? Does Dave really want to go there? The Lisbon Treaty, for the first time, makes explicit provision for a member leaving. The Tories could simply be shown the door. And then Scotland might vote for independence to remain inside. And N. Ireland deeply destabilise. A truly "appalling vista" beckons in the context of impending Sterling and financial collapse.

The Boy Cameron is going to have to grow up. The UK can't survive a Blair II.

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 11:06:20 AM EST

Re: Tory nuts crawling out of the woodwork (4.00 / 4)

Northern Ireland might decide that it is better off joining Ireland (or Scotland) in some kind of settlement that will continue the devolved powers they have. And N. Ireland and Scotland might adopt the euro.

Also see the discussion in the salon, where ceebs states that a 5% shift (a more likely number) of Tory voters towards the UKIP could bring a hung parliament.

So we have every reason to egg on real eurosceptics to vote UKIP. It's a low-risk, high reward strategy.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 01:21:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tory nuts crawling out of the woodwork (4.00 / 2)

But what about the Unionists and their paramilitary BFF?

No one could have predicted

by ATinNM on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 01:52:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tory nuts crawling out of the woodwork (4.00 / 2)

That is what I meant by de-stabilise - the Peace Process could quickly unravel and the paramilitaries take centre stage. We really don't want to go there.

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 01:58:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tory nuts crawling out of the woodwork (4.00 / 2)

I imagine you don't. In theory, of course, all the lads on all - what ... 27? ... 32? - sides in the Troubles have turned in their guns. In practice, hardy-har-har; I'm sure there are still "dumps" scattered around.

No one could have predicted

by ATinNM on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 02:15:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tory nuts crawling out of the woodwork (4.00 / 2)

They're probably rusting away - or being used by drug gangs. But it is oh so easy to get new ones.

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 02:19:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tory nuts crawling out of the woodwork (none / 0)

Its about an 8% swing between tories and ukip to neutralise the paramilitaries. So theres a critical 3% where theyre effetive.

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 06:54:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tory nuts crawling out of the woodwork (4.00 / 3)

"Given the UK's medieval "first past the post" electoral system"

Hear hear.

But then, we also know that our malevolent dictator (for those who don't know, I am French) has an electoral reform going on that will get France back to the middle ages.

"Few can believe that suffering, especially by others, is in vain. - Galbraith"

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 01:25:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tory nuts crawling out of the woodwork (4.00 / 2)

Cameron promises future referendums on European treaties

British Conservative Party leader David Cameron promised today to change UK law so that no further powers could be transferred to Brussels without the approval of the British people in a referendum.

by det on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 12:23:36 PM EST

Re: Tory nuts crawling out of the woodwork (4.00 / 5)

Or without, at least, changing this new law....

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 12:40:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tory nuts crawling out of the woodwork (4.00 / 2)

I suppose countries which fail to approve the treaties negotated by their governments at the European Council will be politely asked by same to invoke Article 50...

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 12:45:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tory nuts crawling out of the woodwork (none / 1)

Cameron has promised a referendum on pretty much any 'transfer of power' but then claims that this will apply to 'not just treaty changes but also taking Britain into the euro'. I wonder whether he plans to apply this to all passerelle clauses or just to treaty changes and decisions on monetary union. In any case, a Tory government would probably veto most moves to utilise a passerelle clause and any successor government could decide not to be bound by this law.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 01:13:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tory nuts crawling out of the woodwork (4.00 / 3)

I see Brit Conservatives are as vapidly ambiguous as their US confreres. Anything, if you squint just right, is a "transfer of power." Thus, the phrase is Semantically Null.

No one could have predicted

by ATinNM on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 01:24:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tory nuts crawling out of the woodwork (4.00 / 4)

I seem to remember one T. Blair promising a referendum on Euro membership.

Call Me Dave is electioneering. He'll say whatever he has to keep the crazies on board the bus.

But the good thing about referendum politics in the UK is that so often there seems to be something more interesting happening, and it's so very hard to find the time to organise one.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 01:44:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tory nuts crawling out of the woodwork (4.00 / 2)

Given that we won't see another treaty that deals with powers for the next 10 years, this is weak, weak tea.

The next treaties that the UK is going to have to ratify are all accession treaties (Balkans, Iceland and perhaps Turkey). In each case, it can try to make a stand (against longstanding UK policy that all enlargement is good) to get concessions on withdrawing from this or that policy, or do a referendum. It might even work. But Cameron isn't promising that. He's just saying he'll try to get a few powers back with regard to justice and employment, not what he'll do to get the other states to agree.

The Beeb got another backbencher:

But some Tory MPs are likely to continue demanding the public have a say on Europe.
Backbencher Douglas Carswell told the BBC News Channel: "I think we need a referendum on our relationship with Europe."

So I've now tallied all of 3 MPs and 1 MEP who are being restless.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 12:46:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tory nuts crawling out of the woodwork (4.00 / 2)

Surprisingly, perhaps, I agree with their demand "the public have a say on Europe." The British intransigence on the EU Program - such as I understand it - cannot continue over the long haul. Either the UK is going to get with it or get out.

US political history is a stern warning to the EU. Our Civil War forced the south back into our Union and they've been little but a PITA ever since. From a political POV - but not from either a moral or humanitarian POV - the Union should have let the south go.

No one could have predicted

by ATinNM on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 01:20:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tory nuts crawling out of the woodwork (4.00 / 3)

Public opinion on the EU is created as a tool by the country's elites (both in media and politics) to be able to act as a braking force on integration. Being part of the EU is a way of ensuring continuity of British foreign policy, pretty much as shown in this scene (h/t to Melanchton):

Britain is not the South. The South is stupid. Britain, as we all know, is perfidious ;-)

Although it might be tempting to want to isolate (and potentially split up) Britain by letting it step out of the EU, this would not go without a lot of unpleasant ripples -- unless the British elites make a big mistake.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 01:49:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tory nuts crawling out of the woodwork (4.00 / 4)

Britain, as we all know, is perfidious

Britian? I thought the Albions, from Albionania, were perfidious. I'm so confused. :-)

My (admittedly semi-ignorant) take is the British elites want to remain in the EU for economic reasons - CAP being one! - and remain outside on everything else. British policy has been Balance of Power for donkey's years. Seems to me they are trying this out using the US to balance the EU on the macro-scale and good old fashioned "Fog in Channel, EU cut-off" internally.

The problem with the Balance of Power strategy is, sometimes, you have to make a choice or the choice is thrust upon you. I don't see the British elites leaving the EU; I do see scenarios where they are asked to leave by raising the frustration and exasperation levels high enough. There's always a 'tipping point.'

No one could have predicted

by ATinNM on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 02:05:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tory nuts crawling out of the woodwork (4.00 / 3)

Is Britain going to be the EU's Texas Republic?

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 03:57:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I have this really sophisticated theory (4.00 / 2)

that the southernmost province of any state is always going to be somewhat semi-detached and thinking that it is (or should be) really running the show. Thus in the USA we have Texas; In the UK we have the "Home Counties"; in Ireland we have Cork (the "real" capital); in Germany we have Bavaria; in SA, Capetown; in Brazil, Rio; in Australia, Sydney etc.

Of course the Spaniards, as usual, have things the wrong way around...

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 04:36:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I have this really sophisticated theory (none / 1)

As do the Italians...

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 04:46:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I have this really sophisticated theory (none / 1)

My theory is obviously too sophisticated for them too...

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 04:53:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I have this really sophisticated theory (none / 1)

Not really. Italy is semi-detached from Europe.

Though not entirely by choice, of course...

- Jake

"Terraforming your own planet to make it uninhabitable hardly counts as epic win." - ThatBritGuy

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 05:39:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I have this really sophisticated theory (none / 0)

And in France it's French Polynesia?

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 04:59:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

no, Elba (none / 0)

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 05:19:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I have this really sophisticated theory (none / 1)

Well, without counting the DOM/TOMs Corsica is semi-detached, and sometimes want to run everything.

And on the mainland, many in Provence feel they are in a different country, hate Paris and probably want to run the show.

Having said that, I don't really believe in that theory ;-)

"Few can believe that suffering, especially by others, is in vain. - Galbraith"

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 02:15:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tory nuts crawling out of the woodwork (4.00 / 2)

Guardian: France: 'Autistic Tories have castrated UK in Europe'

Speaking to the Guardian, Pierre Lellouche, France's Europe minister, described as "pathetic" the Tories' EU plans announced today, warning they would not succeed "for a minute". [...]
He said: "They have one line and they just repeat one line. It is a very bizarre sense of autism."
[...]
Abandoning all diplomatic niceties, Lellouche said: "It's pathetic. It's just very sad to see Britain, so important in Europe, just cutting itself out from the rest and disappearing from the radar map .... This is a culture of opposition ... It is the result of a long period of opposition. I know they will come back, but I hope the trip will be short." He said Cameron's approach was in line with the Tories' decision to abandon the main centre-right EPP grouping in the European parliament, of which Sarkozy's UMP party is a member.
"They are doing what they have done in the European parliament. They have essentially castrated your UK influence in the European parliament," he said.

More good stuff in there.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 03:49:22 AM EST

Tory nuts crawling out of the woodwork | 28 comments (28 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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