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Sunday after Christmas Open Thread

by dvx
Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 01:36:47 PM EST

Open tread!

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Sunday after Christmas Open Thread | 39 comments (39 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (none / 1)

I'm sitting here doing my Sundaily blogging chores with a drop of something tasty and these guys on the box. (I'm old enough that I still own a stereo).

What are you guys up to?

Jesus died for somebody's sins but not mine - Patti Smith

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 01:43:00 PM EST

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (none / 0)

Trance-like laid back groove, dynamic solists tones. sweet.

Skennah Kowa

by Crazy Horse on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 01:59:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (none / 0)

WOMAD regulars, they fun.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 02:09:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (none / 1)

The rain here has finally stopped so I can get to the grocery store without getting soaked. Hate running out of milk ... don't like my coffee black.

On the positive side ... I got nothin'. We're screwed.

I love the smell of roast chicken in the morning!

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 01:43:34 PM EST

Question for you financial sorts (none / 1)

There seems to be agreement that the US needs manufacturing jobs but these have been shipped overseas to cheaper labor markets. At the same time you see "bond issues" in the papers ... wealthy folks trying to get funds to do stupid things like build bigger, gaudier sports arenas. So ...

Where are the bond issues to construct new factories/refurbish existing factories so that we put people back to work making things we can sell to the world, and EVEN ... get this ... the workers have a chance to OWN those factories.

Step right up and tell me I'm full of it.

I love the smell of roast chicken in the morning!

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 01:59:50 PM EST

Re: Question for you financial sorts (4.00 / 2)

Look into co-operatives. In the long run it's the best way for workers to retain local control of their jobs.

There are lots of ways of doing that.

however, hoping that American casino capitalism can somehow be controlled to protect jobs in the long term is to completely misunderstand that the system exists to subtract wealth, to create it.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 02:13:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Question for you financial sorts (none / 0)

Bond issues for sports arenas... for me that's pretty much the gold standard for municipal stupidity.

Now if they floated bonds for, say, wind turbines, they might be able to service the debt and have something left over for boring stuff like essential services.

Jesus died for somebody's sins but not mine - Patti Smith

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 02:44:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (none / 1)

Voice of America: Josipovic, Bandic Likely to Vie for Croatian Presidency in Run-off

An exit poll released shortly after voting ended Sunday showed Social Democrat Josipovic with nearly 33 percent of the vote. If the results stand, he would most likely face a runoff with the mayor of Croatia's capital Zagreb, Milan Bandic, who received 14 percent of votes in the exit poll.
...
Twelve candidates were vying to succeed President Stipe Mesic, who served the maximum two terms.
...
Early reports indicated low voter turnout. Three hours before polls were to close, only about 34 percent of the population had voted. This is about seven percent lower than at the same time in Croatia's last presidential election.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 02:26:56 PM EST

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (4.00 / 3)

I've been shopping.

I had no intention of going shopping, but I needed something from the pharmacist for my daughter.

It was horrible out there. Apart from what I went for, I bought absolutely nothing. There was nothing I wanted enough to join the payment queues. Actually, there was nothing I wanted...

by Sassafras on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 02:47:48 PM EST

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (none / 1)

you've been very brave. Award yourself a vat of wine.

I venture out to Cambridge tomorrow, but will be checking the taverns are still okay.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 02:54:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (4.00 / 2)

Award yourself a vat of wine.

I will do that. I am fit to be tied. Still.

Last night the Militant Electrician returned from a shopping excursion with her rich uncle. They were supposed to exchange undergarments of small size for garments of larger size.

She pranced across the threshhold in a WHITE Helly-Hansen Spyder Thinsulate® shell. WHITE. WHITE. did I say, WHITE? all over. "Rigorously tested by top athletes across the world, Spyder embodies a passion for performance --the same passion driving you to your next adrenaline rush," says the garment tag.

very stylish. tailored to a T. as in three more months of useful wear.

And four more of the wrong size long underwear.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 04:13:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (4.00 / 3)

Following your failure to spend money frivolously, if the British economy collapses followed by a downturn in the EU causing meltdown in the US rippling through and starting a global financial meltdown initiating regional resources wars escalating to nuclear bomb exchanges between Pakistan, India, and China ....

WE'LL KNOW WHO TO BLAME!

:-)

No one could have predicted

by ATinNM on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 03:12:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (none / 0)

Probably better blame me then too. Ive been sat inside avoiding the shops too.

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 03:36:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (none / 0)

Fair enough.

When it comes time for the Lay the Blame Trials you can be a co-defendant with Sassafras.

No one could have predicted

by ATinNM on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 03:46:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (none / 1)

I bought a tank full of petrol today. Does that count as a significant economic contribution, do you think?

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 04:16:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (none / 1)

Well if its a significant economic contribution, then its a significant environmental crime. ;)

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 05:01:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (none / 1)

One measly tank of ... petrol? (That's gas, right? :-)

Nope. Sorry. Doesn't hack it on the face of it.

Now if you're going to use that fuel to motor needlessly to the Outer Hebrides to grab a pack of cigarettes THAT would count!

No one could have predicted

by ATinNM on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 05:58:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (4.00 / 3)

And now, with Xmas and New Year soon to be over and done with the runners and riders for the UK General election will be off.

Right now Andrew Rawnsley, writing in the Observer, had the first reasonable run down.

his conclusions were principally that the electorate is so pissed off with the meltdown in British politics, their dancing around a bonfire of excessive remuneration while doing nothing about the state of the general economy, that there will be a low turnout. And low turnouts make predictions difficult.

He also suggested that third parties will also benefit from the malaise. Meanwhile both major parties will reduce their message to "you'd hate it if you woke up after election day and the other lot had won".

This election could be a real barrel of laughs, if it weren't so serious.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 02:53:40 PM EST

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (4.00 / 2)

Ah yes. The old choice between being burned at the stake or dipped into a vat of boiling oil.

Such fun.

No one could have predicted

by ATinNM on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 03:02:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (none / 1)

Yea, that's the size of it. However, it seems that the tories have to have a historic swing to actually gain an outright majority and polling at the moment suggests they're not really over the line with confidence. People hate labour, but they don't warm to the idea of conservatives.

We could actually have a hung parliament (no party has absolute majority). Our system doesn't really know how to do this so they tend to be short lived. I imagine we are heading for even greater paralysis than brown's indecision has given us.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 03:07:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (none / 0)

You think? With a FPTP system little differences (percentage wise) in the precincts - or whatever you call 'em o'er there - end up causing huge differences in Parliament.

No one could have predicted

by ATinNM on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 03:18:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (none / 0)

Yes, that's one of the problems with it is that alternative views, however popular, get squeezed out.

You can dominate parliament with 40+% of the vote and go nowhere with 25%.

I think it remains possible that the Lib Dems could get 35 - 50 seats, which means that any majority of 17 - 25 over the second place becomes conditional on other support.

Invariably the conservatives turn to the Ulster Protestant parties (the major parties do not stand in Ulster) while Labour look to the Lib dems

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 03:38:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (none / 0)

LibDems polling high enough that they could end-up with 98 to 113 MPs? They've got 63, IIRC, now.

Or do you mean they'll end up with 35 - 50 after the next election?

With 319 needed to govern, people not enthralled with Brown ...

This could get interesting.

No one could have predicted

by ATinNM on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 03:57:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (none / 0)

If the LibDems get 98 - 113 seats, we are in a completely new world. However, if I may be so bold as to give a hostage to fortune, there is a snowball's chance in hell of that happening.

I felt that the 63 seats at the last election was a high water mark.

To push on from that they really needed a new leader who was dynamic and able to command the media. But sadly they decided that would be too exciting and so chose Menzies Campbell; who promptly crumbled into inconsequence and the party more or less vanished from view for about 18 months. Realizing this was a bad thing, they replaced him with Nick Clegg, seemingly on the basis that, if the electorate cannot tell him and David Cameron apart, they might get some tory votes by mistake.

Most would conclude that the Lib Dems are gonna struggle to make 50 seats and that 35 would be a good result given their anonimity.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 04:05:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (4.00 / 4)

I wouldn't be completely surprised to see a lib-con pact - albeit an informal one. The lib-dems are more likely to try to distance themselves from the sinking tanker that is NuLab than to offer themselves up as a flotation device, and it might give Cameron an excuse for relative moderation at the expense of some his far-right headbangers.

That's probably the best possible outcome, considering.

But I wouldn't write off an historic Tory landslide. The headbanger shock troops are so very, very angry they're much more motivated than the normal people, and turning out in their tens or hundreds may be enough to swing the key marginals, especially if they can take Mr & Ms Protest Vote with them.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 04:26:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (none / 0)

True dat. I don't think there's anybody betting against the tories being the largest party. A landslide is possible in the circumstances you describe but I don't yet see the signs of the stars aligning for such an event. It may yet happen, but hung or low majority is my guess

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 04:37:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (none / 1)

The Lib Dems at the last election had worked up to a fairly hard limit on their progress, with the switch between tory and labour vote, the lib dem vote would nead to increase by about 2% just to tread water, when you look at the number of close tory/libdem seats.

I still think that the important vote with a small electoral turnout will be the UKIP vote. that has a possibility to throw a spanner in the Tory works.

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 05:18:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (none / 0)

True enough. Seems that the Tory voters are more hungry than anybody else.

Have to find where those headbangers are. If they are all concentrated in Tory-anyway seats it don't mean much.
Winning seats by 8% is a waste; need to truck some of those voters to other districts. ;-)

This is, in fact, exactly where national polls fall down for predictive purposes.

No one could have predicted

by ATinNM on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 06:06:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (none / 0)

Still think Labour is going to get slaughtered.

Question is, and I make no pretense of knowing the answer, how many of those seats the Tories will grab.

No one could have predicted

by ATinNM on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 03:58:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (none / 0)

Well, I think it's fair to say that Labour will lose a lot of seats but, as you can see below, they can lose an awful lot of seats and still be the largest party.

Conservative (193)
Democratic Unionist (9)
Independent (5)
Independent Conservative (1)
Independent Labour (1)
Labour (350)
Liberal Democrat (63)
Plaid Cymru (3)
Respect (1)
Scottish National (7)
Sinn Fein (5)
Social Democratic & Labour Party (3)
Ulster Unionist (1)
Speaker and Deputies (4)

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 04:10:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (none / 0)

Need to go through the Labour seats and arrange them by winning percentage. National polls are indicative but the seats are won locally.

Data from here

88 Labour Seats are at or under 5% swing. With Brown's popularity and the disgust with Labour have to figure these seats are in danger and will, most likely, be lost. Of these 18 lean LibDem, the rest to the Tories. That gives the Tories a 263 to 262 or a one seat lead.

There will be a shocker or two, there always is, but these numbers give us a basis for 'winging it' one step further.

Looking at the LibDems, they have 33 seats at 5% or under with 12 right at, or under, 2.05% - roughly 20% of their Parliamentary representative. Ouch. Give 7 to the Tories - because they are hungry - and it's

L - 262
T - 270
L/D - 74

Which seems too high for the L/Ds 'cuz they're fuck-ups. So have them lose the Tory-inclined seats in the 2.05% to 3%, another 7 seats and ...

L - 262
T - 277
L/D - 67

Now this is where it's guess time.

Can the Tories hold seats they won by 2% or less? That's 33 seats. With a 9% national lead one has to figure they effectively will either by direct holds or net/net holds by picking up another to balance a loss. I'm assuming the Tories are hungry for power and will be disciplined voters.
Can the Lib/Dems overcome their suckitude and actually hold onto their seats? One thing going for them are Labour voters who can't stand NuLabour™ and don't want to vote Tory. "Vote Lib/Dem! The lesser of three evils!" shall be their battle cry. How many? No idea. Add some more votes from Tories who will tactically vote for them. How many? No idea. Add these two groups and I'm going to say the Lib/Dems will do better than expected.

No one could have predicted

by ATinNM on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 05:51:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (none / 0)

So it's post-xmas and I'm cruising youtube.

Just the right time of year for vintage trivia-laden britpop.

Jesus died for somebody's sins but not mine - Patti Smith

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 04:07:48 PM EST

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (none / 1)

cilla !! Get thee behind me Santa

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 04:11:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (none / 0)

I'm still waiting for one of the BritBrigade^TM to cry, "Naff!"

:-))

Jesus died for somebody's sins but not mine - Patti Smith

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 04:16:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (none / 1)

Cilla dreams of being raised to the status of being merely "Naff".

God, in her infinite wisdom, could not raise Cilla to the uttermost depths of degradation. She is condemned to wander the Hades of society's regard, endlessly clutching at herself in a ghastly parody of Munch's scream. Always and forever asking "why ? why did I do it ? Could nobody have prevented me from presenting Blind Date and earning the everlasting hatred of the British public ?"

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 04:23:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (none / 0)

PS: I was thinking of posting "Anyone Who Had a Heart", but I didn't want to be responsible for the consequences.

Jesus died for somebody's sins but not mine - Patti Smith

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 04:18:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (none / 1)

whihc would be ironic really, given how she is one of the undead.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 04:23:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (none / 0)

Cilla's entire contribution to culture is in that song....

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 05:03:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday after Christmas Open Thread (4.00 / 3)

Peter Preston addresses the truth of the special Relationship

So 53 years ago (..after Suez.), strapped for cash, short of too many troops fighting a US war in Korea, we let Ike ring down the curtain on empire. (Good job? But that's not the point). So Britain's bomb became America's bomb, lease-lent by default and impossible of independent operation. So MI5 and 6 became mere needy adjuncts of the CIA. So we couldn't fight a war of our own - see the Falklands - without US help, and permission. So our self-esteem and diplomatic status came to rest on a bit-part role as America's best friend over the water, the Oval Office's bridge to the heart of Europe.
[....]
Remember that we are impaled on a relationship none of our leaders - past or immediately present - will change, specially constrained by a truth that cannot be boldly told. For what would happen if they did? Then - no counter-factual needed - the emperor would run desperately short of clothes.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 04:33:43 PM EST

Sunday after Christmas Open Thread | 39 comments (39 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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