Uk Met Office scientists annoyed by extreme climate claims.

by Colman
Wed Feb 11th, 2009 at 09:18:18 AM EST

Dr Vicky Pope, head of climate change advice at the UK Met Office is grumpy in the Guardian
Recent headlines have proclaimed that Arctic summer sea ice has decreased so much in the past few years that it has reached a tipping point and will disappear very quickly. The truth is that there is little evidence to support this. Indeed, the record-breaking losses in the past couple of years could easily be due to natural fluctuations in the weather, with summer sea ice increasing again over the next few years. This diverts attention from the real, longer-term issues. For example, recent results from the Met Office do show that there is a detectable human impact in the long-term decline in sea ice over the past 30 years, and all the evidence points to a complete loss of summer sea ice much later this century. This is just one example where scientific evidence has been selectively chosen to support a cause. In the 1990s, global temperatures increased more quickly than in earlier decades, leading to claims that global warming had accelerated. In the past 10 years the temperature rise has slowed, leading to opposing claims. Again, neither claim is true, since natural variations always occur on this timescale. For example, 1998 was a record-breaking warm year as long-term man-made warming combined with a naturally occurring strong El Niño. In contrast, 2008 was slightly cooler than previous years partly because of a La Niña. Despite this, it was still the 10th warmest on record.

[...]

For climate scientists, having to continually rein in extraordinary claims that the latest extreme is all due to climate change is, at best, hugely frustrating and, at worst, enormously distracting. Overplaying natural variations in the weather as climate change is just as much a distortion of the science as underplaying them to claim that climate change has stopped or is not happening. Both undermine the basic facts that the implications of climate change are profound and will be severe if greenhouse gas emissions are not cut drastically and swiftly over the coming decades.
It doesn't matter on which side you're misrepresenting the facts: you're distorting the debate and probably damaging the chances of getting something done about the problems in the medium term.


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Take a look at the comments to the Guardian article, where the "skeptics" come out in force--as usual--to "prove" that this all means that the entire realm of global warming science is wrong.

What do you do? Since people refuse to read even the most accessible primary sources like www.aaas.org, and prefer to get their information from politicians and editorialists, there is simply no way to make progress. It's particularly frustrating because even in popular sources like www.slashdot.org or www.wired.com where you would think that there is at least a modicum of information, every single climate article turns into the same stupid, ill-informed, fact-free religious argument.

Conclusion: We are doomed.

by asdf on Wed Feb 11th, 2009 at 09:59:59 AM EST
[asdf's Crystal Ball of Doom™ Technology]

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 11th, 2009 at 10:03:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
like nuclear energy, or Israel/Palestine, where it is increasingly difficult to have a fruitful, good faith conversation.

And where it becoems hard to find unbiased information, as each side is accused of prejudice.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Feb 11th, 2009 at 10:43:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
or the death penalty, or abortion...

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 11th, 2009 at 12:56:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That used to be my shtick...

*cough *

European Tribune - Climate Catastrophe: Overrated

The language of fear and terror operates as an ever-weakening vehicle for effective communication or inducement for behavioural change.

Over 2 years old and still good to go...

by Nomad on Wed Feb 11th, 2009 at 10:22:01 AM EST
It would be far better if the crisis were moving more slowly, is my conclusion.

Yes, that makes it difficult to get people to change the damaging behaviours -- "OK so far," said the man as he fell past the 13th floor -- but the opportunities presented by extreme, imminent crisis for authoritarianism, embezzlement, violence and bad craziness are almost as alarming as the climate destab itself.

The Emergency Response mindset is used to legitimise all kinds of dysfunctional "solutions" and sell a lot of dull axes that would be better gathering rust imho... (pace Jerome and Starvid, but I do not see nuclear power as a viable solution, yet the nuke industry was quick as you please to jump on the climate bandwagon and claim to be not only greener-than-thou, but Our Only Hope)  I think perhaps we should come up with a name for this strategy -- the Obi-Wan Gambit?  it's been tried now by, let's see...

the Militarists:  climate change will imminently lead to a tidal wave of hungry brown people invading the citadels of whitefella civilisation, so we need to (gee why are we not surprised) beef up our militaries, throw more billions into barrier walls, border security, satellite surveillance and (just to make sure) lots of WMD so we can exterminate them if they can't be kept out.  and of course we'll continue to need the services of a small army of strategists and thinktankers to war-game the menacing scenarios, and since civil unrest is definitely on the table we think that measures should be taken to monitor and control our internal population as well -- Right Now.  hey, this is an Emergency, don't question us, just give us the money and shut up.

the Ringworld Engineers:  climate change will imminently lead to complete planetary doom so we should stop all this silly cavilling about risk (we are Doomed anyway if we fail) and start nuking volcanoes to induce partial nuclear winter via an umbrella of ash particles, or seeding the oceans with huge amounts of various chemicals to reduce their albedo, or (fill in your own Larry Niven plotline here, but remember that he was instrumental in selling the SDI boondoggle to the US elite).  we've seen a few too many Indiana Jones movies and we are dead certain that a spectacular, heroic Engineering Intervention by serious whitefellas in lab coats is your Only Hope. side effects?  unintended consequences?  who cares about side effects, this is an emergency, we have nothing to lose!  oh, and by the way, a few billion in tax revenues is nothing to sneeze at when the crisis is so imminent, so fast-track that allocation if you don't mind.  we wouldn't want the delay and confusion of any kind of peer review or public process to seal our doom, now would we?

the Millenarians:  imminent crisis means imminent Rapture, which is a Good Thing and means we are about to be freed from this earthly sphere to rejoin [fill in your favourite version of God here] in Heaven.  so we can neglect, all we want, our earthly duties of democratic participate, stewardship of the web of life, etc.  you need to get right with God, right now, and as we are the one true church we are your Only Hope.

the Sales Droids:  imminent crisis means you really need to buy, buy, buy a bunch of stuff to ensure the survival of your precious self and your family.  there's nothing useful you can do (like riding your bike or eating locally) so ignore any promptings of responsibility or social change and prepare, instead, for a sudden violent dislocation for which you should really gear up, intensely, right now (Matt Savinar comes to mind) -- we got MREs, we got water, we got guns, we got survival manuals... we accept Paypal and Visa.  and survivalism is your only hope.

and so on.

taking the long view -- the civilisational/anthro critique of folks like Wright, Ponting, Diamond, Tainter, Heinberg, Georgescu-Roegen, the biotic-system view of energy flows and consumption/carrying-capacity/growth -- leads us, I think inevitably, to the conclusion that there is a fundamental disconnect between the ideology of capitalism (just a new and more obfuscated face of the ideology of imperialism imho -- growth growth growth), the practise of industrialism (even if it calls itself Communist), and biotic reality.  

to avoid the eventual brick wall of population/consumption/carrying-capacity, a retooling of ideology, culture, and behaviour would be required -- towards an ideology (a cultural consciousness, if you will) of limits and biotic responsibility -- that cannot be accomplished in a decade or two.  so it would be far better if the crisis were not quite so imminent, because time really is needed -- a generation or two would be nice.

the counterargument to all this is that the public of the affluent nations, bribed into a trance of compliance as never before by the largesse doled out by their masters (the industrial barons and financiers), (a) don't want anything to change, and (b) can only be motivated to give up their wallowing materialism by big doses of Fear!  Fear!  Fear!

but Fear, Fear, Fear seems to lead to fatalism, despair, and even sullen, resentful partying (hey, if I'm doomed, I'm gonna live it up while I can!).  end-of-world cults traditionally don't demonstrate the most responsible social behaviours, as they have no sense of preserving anything for their kids (if any), no expectation of cultural continuity, and hence no need for an ethical code or social strictures.  excessive fatalism could contribute enormously to the unravelling of our social fabric, already much weakened by the endless individualist moth-nibbling of neoliberalism, capitalism, etc.

where does that leave us?  if we want to encourage, like patient gardeners, the tiny sprouts of social change leading in a more survivable direction, how do we steer a course between Fear!Fear!Fear! and comfortable complacency?

meanwhile, the "leadership" cadres of North America, rotten to the core, continue to push as hard as they can in the wrong direction -- widen more freeways, sell more cars, build more airports, funnel more money into elite salaries, bail out the financiers, wage more wars!  all they have is a hammer and everything looks nail-shaped.  what are we going to do about these people?  if we really only had ten years, we might go all Obi-Wan and shoot them -- it's our only hope! -- but if we have 50 or 100 years, surely there's something less violent we can do to get them in better touch with reality?

The difference between theory and practise in practise ...

by DeAnander (de_at_daclarke_dot_org) on Wed Feb 11th, 2009 at 12:47:33 PM EST
...did I get to welcome you back?

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 11th, 2009 at 12:55:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
she's BACK!

in spiffing form, to boot.

glad to see you readopting the liberation of CAPS from the traditional formalisation, allowing them their rightful places as emphases.

a sheer joy to read, de.

many blessings

"Two wrongs don't make a right, but three lefts do." Jim Hightower

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Wed Feb 11th, 2009 at 01:22:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And not unrelated:
It is OK to go to work regularly on an egg, health experts said today as they attempted to dispel "the ingrained misconception" among consumers and some health professionals that people should eat no more than three a week because of the "myth" surrounding the food's link to cholesterol in the blood.

They said the public had not caught up with changing health advice that no longer limited consumption as part of a balanced diet, except for the one in 500 people who had a genetic propensity to high cholesterol.
(Guardian)

Basing advice on crappy science leads to science falling into disrepute.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Feb 11th, 2009 at 04:07:43 PM EST
Basing advice on crappy science leads to science falling into disrepute.
 

Well, who could have seen THAT one coming?  ;)  

The Fates are kind.

by Gaianne on Tue Feb 17th, 2009 at 01:01:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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