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by afew
FT.com / Columnists / Martin Wolf - Why Davos Man is waiting for Obama to save him
In his weekly FT column, Martin Wolf paints an almost entirely gloomy - the word is hardly adequate - picture of the state of the global economy.
Interesting. Toxic sludge gets more toxic as its poison spreads through the system.
Losses are also spreading to many other asset classes and economies as the slump worsens. Anyway, see this:
Faced with this, who's doing the right thing? According to Martin Wolf, no one. While the US is far from adopting policies of the necessary scope and vigour,
...the European Central Bank is allowing the eurozone to collapse into deep recession; Japan is in meltdown; China has at least announced a big stimulus package, but it lacks a credible plan for needed structural reforms; and most other emerging countries can only try to stay afloat in these storm-tossed seas. What should be done? Well, America to the rescue. Because:
...it remains the hyperpower; the economic system is one it promoted; and the crisis had much to do with mistakes its policymakers and private institutions made, even if aided and abetted by mistakes elsewhere. Whoa there! Is there a change here in Martin Wolf's previously-held view that the crisis was the mechanical result of global macro-economic imbalance, aka the savings glut? Here we have a hyperpower promoting an economic system (with the clout "hyperpower" supposes?), and we have failure of its leaders both public and private. And it would seem that these are considerations that take precedence over "mistakes elsewhere". Encore un effort, Martin, we'll get to the Anglo Disease yet!
Wolf sets out six guidelines for Obama:
FT.com / Columnists / Martin Wolf - Why Davos Man is waiting for Obama to save him
Let's simplify: acting in concert and avoiding protectionism would seem to necessarily hang together. And number two appears to be a recommendation on the manner of applying number one. So we should act in concert with force to reverse the collapse in demand. Obama's not doing it, says Wolf.
Instead of an overwhelming fiscal stimulus, what is emerging is too small, too wasteful and too ill-focused. Instead of decisive action to recapitalise banks, which must mean temporary public control of insolvent banks, the US may be returning to the immoral and ineffective policy of bailing out those who now hold the “toxic assets”. Instead of acting as a global leader, there is resort to protectionism and a “blame game”. So - reading positive from negative - what's needed is an overwhelming fiscal stimulus, nationalisation of insolvent banks, and global cooperation. That doesn't sound wrong to me, if we can get it. Just a couple of points puzzle me, all the same. We are in a globalised economy where there is a long-standing imbalance, according to Martin Wolf, between "saver and spenders". Meaning, where goods are supplied by emerging countries to developed economies that consume above their means thanks to credit based on the savings that the emerging countries set aside out of the price of the goods they supply. Which cannot go on for ever, and, finally, the chickens come home to roost. Well, so now what? America is, says Wolf:
a country that must export its way out of its slump which seems logical after so long an imbalance. Meanwhile
the European Central Bank is allowing the eurozone to collapse into deep recession I take this to mean the ECB should be letting the euro slide in order to facilitate exports (presumably, Britain is doing that with sterling..?). So the two powerhouse economic blocs should be seeking their salvation in exports - while pushing domestic demand by massive fiscal stimulus. Which is all the same more than likely to increase imports... While it's uncertain who in the world will be able to buy our exports. Catastrophe is the key word in this column. Little by little, perhaps we shall get round to understanding why we are here. |
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The Cusp Of History | 32 comments (32 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
The Cusp Of History | 32 comments (32 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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