LQD: Bull Trap!

by ceebs
Wed Mar 11th, 2009 at 07:57:23 AM EST

UK house prices will plummet: look at this scary chart - MoneyWeek

I am detecting a certain amount of bullishness in the housing market of late. A number of people with cash are talking about "buying later this year", or "taking advantage of these low rates".

A gent I met at a drinks party at the weekend was very keen on a property in Kensington because it was down from £3 million to one and a half. Foreigners, we are told, are taking advantage of the falling pound to buy prime Central London property. Viewing activity at my neighbour's unsellable (or overpriced) house is increasing. At the recent Savills auctions, London properties in decent areas were still fetching surprisingly good prices.

UK house prices will plummet: look at this scary chart - MoneyWeek

House prices remain out of kilter with what people earn. No matter what the government does, they will head lower until they reach a level which people can afford, which history has shown to be about three times earnings. And they will probably overshoot this to the downside because of the scale of the preceding boom and the oncoming bust. There is nothing anyone, not tycoon nor politician, can do to stop this inevitable course. All they can do is delay it.

Article Withe plentifull Graphyness!


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London properties in decent areas are disconnected from what real people earn anyway.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Mar 11th, 2009 at 08:01:27 AM EST
Looking at the graphs for the rest of the country, things aren't that much better. (But it does look like scale is adjusted on the graphs to make it fit the bubble graph to London)

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Mar 11th, 2009 at 08:05:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
i was at an english client's the other day, and she had one of those tweedy english mags like 'country living' or somesuch lying around.

on the cover was 'LIFTOFF!' and the subtext was that viewings are going up on country houses.

that koolaide is strong!

"Two wrongs don't make a right, but three lefts do." Jim Hightower

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Thu Mar 12th, 2009 at 06:32:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The issue that isn't going away is the chronic shortage of houses. There will never be truly affordable housing whilst that remains true.

The housing industry had little incentive to improve the avialbility of houses during good times and certainly has none now. And whilst govt remains paralysed by the thatcherite injunction against building social housing nothing will change.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Mar 12th, 2009 at 12:19:01 PM EST


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