Silly Money

by ceebs
Sat Mar 7th, 2009 at 03:46:05 PM EST

I keep seeing the numbers for the financial failure that surrounds us, Billions, Trillions and for the average person it makes no sense, You just have nothing reasonable to compare it to. So how do you explain the sheer size of the problem in numbers that the everyday person can understand?

Now the traditional units of measurement employed by UK newspapers are "The size of Belgium" "The distance to the moon" "The size of the Great Pyramid" and "the size of a double decker bus" so follow me inside to see how the crisis matches up. or if you can suggest some better units.

It may not be the most sane way of describing the problem, but then again some of the medias attempts have been no better

Heel size predicts Credit Crunch effect as stiletto-mania kicks in

Economists may have found a new way of predicting the full extent of the economic downturn. According to a report in The Sun, economic forecasts are out, and "heel size analysis" is in!

Skyscraper heels have not been in vogue since the last Great Depression of the 1930s, and 2009 is set to be the Year of the Stiletto.


Thickness of a Dollar Bill
The size of a dollar bill is 6.6294 cm wide, by 15.5956 cm long, and 0.010922 cm in thickness.

Lets start with Belgium

Belgium Area - Geography

Area: total: 30,528 sq km

now the size of notes gives us 96,720,000 per square kilometer

or 2,952,668,160,000 dollars to cover the whole of Belgium

now this is just too much President Obama thinks it will be smaller (but then again everyone else has seemed wildly optimistic so why not in this case)

Obama thinks bank losses will cost $2 trillion - Times Online

President Obama is preparing to spend a further $2 trillion bailing out Wall Street as part of an ambitious plan to force America's financial institutions to resume lending.

Mr Obama, Tim Geithner, the Treasury Secretary, Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, and Sheila Bair, the head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC), discussed plans at a meeting on Wednesday to increase the size of the Troubled Asset Relief Programme (Tarp) and buy or underwrite up to $2 trillion (£1.4 trillion) of bad Wall Street debts.

so things need to get a bit worse for the crisis to be measured in Belgiums

So how about the distance to the moon?

Distance to the Moon

The average distance from the center of the Earth to the center of the Moon is 384,403 km (238,857 miles).

so that makes it a pile of $3,519,529,390,221 from Earth to moon  So bank debt only gets us halfway.

the Great Pyramid?

Great Pyramid of Giza - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

the Great Pyramid was 280 Egyptian royal cubits tall, 146.6 meters, (480.97 feet) but with erosion and the loss of its pyramidion, its current height is 138.8 m (455 feet). Each base side was 440 royal cubits, with each royal cubit measuring 0.524 meters.[5] The total mass of the pyramid is estimated at 5.9 million tonnes. The volume, including an internal hillock, is believed to be roughly 2,500,000 cubic meters.[6]

at roughly 1 million dollars per cubic meter, that gives bank debt climbing up towards the peak of the great pyramid, but still a bit short

So how about routemaster busses?

internal passenger volume comes to about 70m3 so for the current bank bailout, you'd have to fill over a thousand buses with dollar bills  to deliver the money to the banks.

Now all these measurements are ok, but they don't quite fit. Can anyone come up with a suitable unit of measurement of financial catastrophe?

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London produces enough rubbish to fill 2 Olympic-size swimming pool every hour.

The 2 trillion US debt, if it were in stacked gold bars, would also fill 2 olympic size pools.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sat Mar 7th, 2009 at 04:52:35 PM EST
... Olympics, US$2T will only be enough gold to fill one olympic sized swimming pool, freeing up one to be used for the Olympics without the injury risk of filling the pool with gold.


Utsukushikereba sore de ii
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sat Mar 7th, 2009 at 05:21:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I bow to your improved calculations, because I just realized I used the € kilo price for gold. I'm a naughty naughty boy.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sat Mar 7th, 2009 at 05:36:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The GDP of California was $1.7 trillion in 2006 according to wikipedia. The GDP of Italy in 2007 was 2.1 trillion.

2 trillion is about $300 for each human being alive, or nearly one dollar per person per day for a year.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Mar 7th, 2009 at 05:00:34 PM EST
... would be a 50% or more increase in daily income for half the world's population.


Utsukushikereba sore de ii
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sat Mar 7th, 2009 at 05:23:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A sobering statistic...

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Mar 7th, 2009 at 05:24:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the average person has a skin area of roughly 1.5m2 so you could cover them in two layers thick of dollar bills.

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Mar 7th, 2009 at 06:24:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Isn't it traditional to mention football pitches around about now?

I suppose you could have a golden football pitch with teams running around covered in dollar bills.

And that still wouldn't be as silly as the US banking industry.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Mar 7th, 2009 at 07:03:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
gold 19.3g per cubic centimetre, football pitch max size 90x120m

$939.7 per troy ounce  $30.2 per gram

so that works out as a solid gold football pitch 30cm thick

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Mar 7th, 2009 at 07:20:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Somehow this kind of stuff made a lot more sense back when I smoked pot.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sat Mar 7th, 2009 at 08:46:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Did you inhale?

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 06:01:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The British atmy had 20,000 men killed on the first day of the battle of the Somme
said to be the worst casualties ever in battle by an army.

In the last month, the US economy has lost in excess of that number of jobs every day.

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Mar 7th, 2009 at 05:07:48 PM EST
2 trillion HIV viruses laid end to end would reach from New York to Washington.

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Mar 7th, 2009 at 08:43:34 PM EST
$2,000,000,000,000 shared between a population of 306,000,000 is $3267.97 in extra taxes or reduced services or common wealth infrastructure each.
by Sassafras on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 06:03:24 AM EST
(Or almost enough for a Canon EOS 5D Mark II and kit lens.)
by Sassafras on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 06:11:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Sassafras on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 06:35:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
would pay the average US household electricity bill for ten years.

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 07:14:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As units go, how about measuring the funny-money in the number of months it could supply Washington DC with combined electricity and district heating if it were printed in $1 bills and used as fuel in a modern power plant?

That's something that people can relate too, and may shortly have the added value of illustrating how central heating uses the fuel more efficiently than the kitchen stove.

- Jake

"Terraforming your own planet to make it uninhabitable hardly counts as epic win." - ThatBritGuy

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 08:01:34 AM EST
Well a dollar bill weighs roughly 1 gramme, so 2billion kilos of paper.

Energy | Burning waste paper pellets | Plant Services

Each 1.5 tons of pelletized paper has the energy equivalent of one ton of coal.

Fossil-fuel power plant - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

A large coal train called a "unit train" may be two kilometers (over a mile) long, containing 100 cars with 100 tons of coal in each one, for a total load of 10,000 tons. A large plant under full load requires at least one coal delivery this size every day.

peak usage was 33,000 Mw last summer so you'd need 17 large power plants to run New York

so that's about 78 days electricity if you burned the money in power stations, running constantly at their peak output.

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 08:39:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Since we're not about to paper Belgium with dollar bills, all I want to know is where the %$#@ is all that money going to end up?  I mean it's OK to say something will cost this much, but that usually implies you receive something of comparable value in return.  What do the tax payers get for their money and future lives.  Will their savings, retirement accounts and property values be restored?  I doubt it.  These often took a lifetime to accumulate, and they disappeared/were stolen overnight.  

I can swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell. _ Blood Sweat & Tears
by Gringo (stargazing camel at aoldotcom) on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 01:02:40 PM EST
You're introducing seriousness into a discussion about paving the earth with dollar bills and Euros???
by asdf on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 01:09:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry - the discussion was somehow depressing.  I can take the straight talk easier.  I think the examples used to measuring a trillion dollars did it.

I can swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell. _ Blood Sweat & Tears
by Gringo (stargazing camel at aoldotcom) on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 09:16:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I started it Because a trillion dollars had just become a bundle of words, something i just couldn't understand, and wanted to get my head round.

I was just trying to drop a pebble down the well to get an idea how deep it actually was

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 09:42:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now we know. Pretty #$@ deep!

I can swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell. _ Blood Sweat & Tears
by Gringo (stargazing camel at aoldotcom) on Mon Mar 9th, 2009 at 01:00:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I havent heard the splash from the bottom yet.

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Mar 9th, 2009 at 08:56:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
and they disappeared/were stolen overnight.

No, they'd been stolen over the previous 30 years. It's like one of those times when a pop star finds his accountant has been living the high life syphoning off their earnings for the whole of their career. The fact that we've got to look at the books now and found there's money missing  dosn't mean it all went missing today. (Unless it's Scrodingers bank account)

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 01:50:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I know of several cases like this. It is just too easy when you have a client who doesn't have a clue. Especially when, from the accountant's point of view, so much of the income they are dealing with is 'frittered away'. "Why not fritter it away on me,?" they think.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 02:10:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Power corrupts - accountancy corrupts absolutely.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Mar 23rd, 2009 at 04:09:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well im sure they just think they don't have to account for their actions.

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Mar 30th, 2009 at 05:52:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Galbraith argues in The Great Crash that embezzlement actually creates money: The embezzler has money, and the victim thinks that he has money. And if you think that you have money, then you actually have got money... just as long as you don't try to use that money. He calls this duplicated money (that the embezzler has but the victim doesn't yet realise that he's lost) "the Bezzle."

He also notes that the bezzle is inherently pro-cyclical: In good times, people don't actually need their money, so they don't check as often that they still have their money, so it becomes easier to embezzle them, and the bezzle grows. As soon as trouble starts, people begin to take a hard look at their balance sheets... and the bezzle evaporates.

I think much of the money being destroyed right now is the bezzle getting smaller. So it was stolen over the last thirty years. But it's disappearing overnight.

- Jake

"Terraforming your own planet to make it uninhabitable hardly counts as epic win." - ThatBritGuy

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 05:16:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
JakeS:
I think much of the money being destroyed right now is the bezzle getting smaller. So it was stolen over the last thirty years. But it's disappearing overnight.
Especially over the past 10 years, with securitisation, banks have created money (by loaning it out) well in excess of the amounts consistent with Central Banks' monetary policies. I call this counterfeit money but you can call it the Bezzle. As we know, in 2006 the Fed discontinued the "M3 money supply" statistical series, presumably to hide the size of the bezzle.

The Bezzle was spread around the economy and now, when it disappears, everyone takes a hit, not only the money forgers.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Mar 9th, 2009 at 04:31:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Stolen-or never existed.

In theory, I've "lost" tens of thousands of pounds in the last year on the value of my home. But that "money" was the unearned result of the property bubble.

It would have been useful if I'd wanted to secure debt against it, I suppose.  But did it ever exist in any really meaningful way? If I'd wanted to move home, I would have needed every scrap of my unearned equity to buy the next house, because they'd all gone up by the same crazy amount.  There was no way my "wealth" was going to translate into spending money, short of going to live in a tent.

by Sassafras on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 05:35:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, you could have rented instead. That would have been the way to realise the bubble windfall. And push the overvalued asset on some other sucker, of course...

- Jake

"Terraforming your own planet to make it uninhabitable hardly counts as epic win." - ThatBritGuy

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 05:59:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In a perfect market, possibly, if I'd guessed the exact moment to get out and get back in again.

In fact, however, I'd have to pay tax on the income from the released and reinvested capital, while paying my rent out of after tax income, which would be a year-on-year loss for the period I was out of the housing market.

And that assumes a "normal" rate of return on my investment.  With interest rates of 0.5% I would be out-of-pocket by most of the rent each month.

And I might even have invested the capital in equities.  Gulp.

by Sassafras on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 06:18:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I guess it depends on how much you think your house is overvalued. If you would have a € 1000/month rent on the rental market, and you think your house is overvalued by € 100000, then it would make sense as long as the housing market would correct itself in less than eight years, even if you just took the money and put it in the Bank of Serta. Three years if you were paying 60 % income tax on the realised gain. Assuming, of course, that you were right about the true value of the house, and neglecting the costs of moving, and all the other simplifications. So call it two years, to be on the safe side - if you could predict the crash to within one year (plus/minus one gives two years), you could have cashed out.

Assuming, of course, that you want to treat your home as an object of speculation. Me, personally, I wouldn't want to do that, but then again, I don't particularly want to own a house in the first place...

But in any event, equity in your house isn't money - it only becomes money when you use it to collateralise a loan.

- Jake

"Terraforming your own planet to make it uninhabitable hardly counts as epic win." - ThatBritGuy

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 06:30:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But in any event, equity in your house isn't money - it only becomes money when you use it to collateralise a loan.

I think that was my point in the first place  :)

However, I'd been predicting the housing crash for at least four years, so I think we could agree that my punditry skills aren't quite tight enough to speculate with the roof over my children's heads.  ;)

by Sassafras on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 06:55:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
if you'd have promised them ice cream, im sure they would have adjusted to sleeping under a hedge for a year. ;)

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 07:04:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Are you kidding?  You should have seen my daughter's face when I admitted I couldn't be sure her mobile phone would work on holiday this summer...

Well, maybe a hedge with a charging point and wifi.  Or double chocolate ice cream.

by Sassafras on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 07:28:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I've a friend who lives on the side of a hill in a broken down bus, running everything from solar panels. so it can be done.

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 07:55:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Kids today are spoiled rotten.

When I was a kid we had to walk across the house to answer the telephone.  

Barefoot.

In the snow.

Uphill, both ways.

No one could have predicted

by ATinNM on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 10:11:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
True.

Well, presumably it would have been monetised by selling it, because the other dude would have had to take out a mortgage on the full value (unless he had some cash stashed aside for some reason) :-P

- Jake

"Terraforming your own planet to make it uninhabitable hardly counts as epic win." - ThatBritGuy

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 08:17:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Over the last 12 months gold dropped off its peak by around 25% and is now almost up to the level it was at a year ago - and it seems to be climbing.

Obviously that's not as profitable as a building society account, especially one of the higher paying ones, but it's more secure than equities.

It's probably one of the ironies of the situation that over the last year a basic ISA will have been the most profitable of all possible investment vehicles.

Some hedge funds will have done better, as usual, but others will have done worse.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 06:37:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, one of my neighbors was a realtor/estate agent.  She sold her house at the top of the market and made a killing, so to speak.  Her profit was real unless she turned around and bought another ridiculously expensive house. If she were smart she would have rented her next house or used the money to pay cash for a place where prices were more reasonable.

I can swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell. _ Blood Sweat & Tears
by Gringo (stargazing camel at aoldotcom) on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 09:29:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Gringo:
Will their savings, retirement accounts and property values be restored?
The value of your primary home is not equity, it's your primary home. If you remortgage your home or make "home equity withdrawals" it's like gambling your shirt.

401(k) retirement accounts have been a great scam. The "public pension solvency crisis" is a bogus argument to convince both the government and the people to put the money that should be going into social security into the stock market instead. It should never have happened.

"Savings" in savings accounts are covered by the FDIC up to 100k per person per bank.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Mar 9th, 2009 at 04:35:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
An astronomical unit is 149,597,870,691m.

So if a dollar is 0.15956m in length, then it would cost $1.875 trillion to lay a trail of dollar bills end-to-end to the sun and back.

Leaving pocket change of $125 billion to be spent on one of those social programmes the US can't afford.

Bargain!

by Sassafras on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 01:04:08 PM EST
$125 billion to be spent on one of those social programmes

What are you a communist? ;)

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 01:46:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But the dollar bills will burn up when you get anywhere near the sun, Paddy!

No theyz won't, O'Brain - we'z going at night!

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 02:12:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, talking of buses as metaphor...

Hold your noses: some big assumptions coming up!

If I can even glorify with the title of assumption my vague impression that the cereal aisle at Sainsbury's probably contains about 20% own brands, and that shelf space is proportional to sales, then Sainsbury's customers buy 750 x 5 = 3750 tonnes of cardboard cereal boxes each year.

Sainsbury's has 15.9% of the market, which I'll assume holds for the cereal market as well.  So, the UK consumption of cardboard for cereal boxes would be 23585 tonnes.

If a banknote weighs 1g, then a million dollars in $1 bills would weigh 1 tonne.

So $2 trillion in $1 bills would weigh about 85 times as much as all the breakfast cereal packets sold in the UK in one year.

by Sassafras on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 04:47:32 PM EST
but would it taste as good?

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 05:04:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Tastes like a cereal packet, oddly enough...  :)
by Sassafras on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 05:10:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the metal flake must be like dental floss too. a meal and a clean in one.

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 07:18:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why won't we measure the bailout/stimulus money in terms of "average" daily costs of the Iraq war?
by das monde on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 11:08:19 PM EST
The numbers in that measure:

The Obama stimulus package = 6 years 3 months in Iraq.

The total of bailout measures = about 72 years in Iraq.

And they say WWII revived the economy... The US bailouts cost twice as much (inflation adjusted) as that involvement.

by das monde on Mon Mar 9th, 2009 at 04:00:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Blimey, how has this come back from the dead?

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Mar 23rd, 2009 at 11:12:05 AM EST
It's a vampire diary.....

..do vampires live in a stakeholder economy?

Modern conservatives engage in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy: the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.Galbraith

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Mon Mar 23rd, 2009 at 11:50:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
when they're not suffering from coffin fits.

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Mar 23rd, 2009 at 11:52:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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