Meanwhile, in Bosnia...

by Migeru
Sun Apr 5th, 2009 at 05:51:29 PM EST

I caught the following when roaming the internet aimlessly the other day...

Javno.hr: Croatia's PM: Bosnian Croats Must Have All Rights (March 31, 2009)

Croatian Prime Minister Ivo Sanader said ahead of his trip to Bosnia's Mostar that he is taking a message there that Croats living in Bosnia-Herzegovina have to be secured complete equality with the other two constitutive peoples, as well as that it is high time for solutions for the country's future to be found.

- This is a turning point and permanent solutions for Bosnia-Herzegovina should be made. One should keep in mind that it is also the homeland of the Croat people and that Croat people must be sovereign, equal and constitutive with the other two peoples in Bosnia-Herzegovina - Bosniaks and Serbs - Sanader told the Bosnian issue of the Vecernji list daily on Tuesday.

He said that Croatia, as a signatory to the Dayton peace treaty, wants Bosnia to remain integral and sustainable and is giving it all the necessary support on its way towards Euro-Atlantic associations.

I find talk of Bosnia Croats' sovereignty by the Prime Minister of Croatia hair-raising, especially in this context...


Deutsche Welle: Political Tensions Threaten Bosnia's Fragile Peace (01.03.2009)
"We suggest that Bosnia be transformed into a federation in which the federal units shall have the right to self-determination," Bosnian Serb Prime Minister Milorad Dodik said.

"Why shouldn't we go the way of Czechoslovakia, and meet up in the European Union," he said Saturday in an interview with a Croatian daily, after several days of stern statements on the failure of Bosnia.

In what became known as the "Velvet Divorce," Czechoslovakia dismembered in 1993 to form the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The two new states joined the EU nine years later.

It seems that the proposed Constitutional reform of Bosnia and Herzegovina is perceived as giving the Bosnian Muslims more influence in government, among other things by abolishing the rotating presidency established by the Dayton Accords. The move towards a more centralised administration in Bosnia is having the effect of increasing secessionist sentiments in the Bosnian Serb Republika Srpska. Talk of "sovereignty" for the Bosnian Croats doesn't seem to me to be conducive to calming down the situation, especially because it would seem to contemplate partition of the existing Federation of Bosnia and Hercegovina (the subnational entity including both Bosnian Muslims and Croats which is the counterpart to the Republika Srpska).

This can only end in tears.

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That dosn't look good at all.

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Apr 5th, 2009 at 07:48:52 PM EST
Is Sanader planning on issuing Croatian passports to Bosnian Croats to justify a later invasion? Is he planning on arming them? Is Sanader as big a creep as I'm beginning to learn Franjo Tuđman was?

"It Can't Be Just About Us"
--Frank Schnittger, ETian Extraordinaire
by papicek (papi_cek_at_hotmail_dot_com) on Sun Apr 5th, 2009 at 10:08:05 PM EST
Most of them already have Croatian passports.
They also vote in Croat elections.
They're already armed.
Most politicians in the area are creeps.
by vladimir on Mon Apr 6th, 2009 at 02:13:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I doubt Sanader is planning on arming the Bosnian Croats. If he were, he woudn't have just sold the USA 19 thousand old Kalashnikovs (which were already 2nd hand when Croatia procured them from Hungary in the 1990s) to arm the Afghans...

Javno.com: KALASHNIKOVS TO AFGHANISTAN: Croatia Selling 19,000 AK-47 Rifles to USA

American reasons for this weapons deal are lower price due to friendly relations and the current state of equipment of Afghan troops.

Croatia will send to the ISAF Mission in Afghanistan armoured vehicles purchased from the Finnish company Patria to better protect Croatian soldiers there, but this should come about only in a year or two.
Note that Croatia (like Albania) just joined NATO, by the way.

Croatia can probably really use the €2bn from this sale to defend the exchange rate of the kuna and help with the current budget tightness. Its economy has structural problems that the crisis is not making any better.

Now, Sanader may be angling for the vote of Bosnian Croats in Croatia. I originally found the following story a bit criptic.

BalkanInsight.com: Leading Bosnian Croat Parties Eye Reunification (02 April 2009)

[Note: this does not mean reunification of Croatia and the Bosnian Croats, but it does sound weird, doesn't it? It does mean the reunification of two largest Bosnian Croat parties which split off from the sister party to Sanader's (and Tudjman's) HDZ. Sanader is brokering the negotiations.]

The strongest Bosnian Croat parties, the Croat Democratic Union, HDZ, and the renegade HDZ1990, inch towards reunification, with HDZ 1990leadership expected to start discussing this issue on Thursday.

...

[HDZ1990 president] Ljubic made his comments after the process for reunification of the two Bosnian HDZ parties was officially initiated and strongly supported by the Croatian Premier Ivo Sanader, two days ago.

Eventual reunification of HDZ and HDZ1990 would reinforce Bosnian Croat negotiating positions. This process, and Sanader's role in it, also shows a renewed strengthening of Croatian involvement in the Bosnian Croat political scene.

I don't know if this is ominous, but it does make me uncomfortable.

DoDo has written about similar irresponsible political use of the Hungarian minority in Romania by the Hungarian right-wing party Fidesz.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 6th, 2009 at 04:20:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In this case, the situation may even be reversed. During the war, on the back of arms smuggling, a wholesale mafia developed within the Bosnian Croat forces, which was again connected to far-right forces in both Croatia proper and Hercegovina (similar to the development of the KLA in Kosovo). In the final years and immediately after the death of Tuđman, these groups were considered to have an inordinate influence on HDZ and Croatia's domestic politics (using money, connections, and even guns & bombs). Though Sanader defeated challengers from the extremist party wing connected to the Herceg-Bosnian 'mafia' while he rose to power, I don't recall him outright dumping the guys.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 6th, 2009 at 10:26:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Croatia practically took away the entire coast of Bosnia as some sort of tacit accord during the war. What else do they want?
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 6th, 2009 at 01:39:25 AM EST
No. Actually, Tito (a Croat... some insiders say a native Russian who poached the real Tito's identity during the Spanish civil war... but that's another story) gave the coast line to Croatia in 1943 during the 2nd AVNOJ Council in Jajce, Bosnia.

Here's a map of the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes - which existed from 1918 to 1941.

Below is a map of post WWII Yugoslavia after Tito's pen ran out of control... Lucky Croats.

by vladimir on Mon Apr 6th, 2009 at 02:36:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The first map is a map of the Yugoslav Banovine
From 1929, the Kingdom was subdivided into nine new provinces called banovinas or banates. Their borders were intentionally drawn so that they would not correspond either to boundaries between ethnic groups, or to pre-World War I imperial borders. They were named after various geographic features, mostly rivers. Slight changes to their borders were made in 1931 with the new Yugoslav Constitution. The banovinas were as follows:
  • Danube Banovina (Dunavska banovina), with its capital in Novi Sad
  • Drava Banovina (Dravska banovina), with its capital in Ljubljana
  • Drina Banovina (Drinska banovina), with its capital in Sarajevo
  • Littoral Banovina (Primorska banovina), with its capital in Split
  • Morava Banovina (Moravska banovina), with its capital in Niš
  • Sava Banovina (Savska banovina), with its capital in Zagreb
  • Vardar Banovina (Vardarska banovina), with its capital in Skopje
  • Vrbas Banovina (Vrbaska banovina), with its capital in Banja Luka
  • Zeta Banovina (Zetska banovina), with its capital in Cetinje
The City of Belgrade, together with Zemun and Pančevo was also an administrative unit independent of the banovinas.

Banovina of Croatia: 1939-1941

As an accommodation to Yugoslav Croats in the Cvetković-Maček Agreement, the Banovina of Croatia (Banovina Hrvatska) was formed in 1939 from a merger of the Maritime and Sava Banovinas, with some additional territory from the Drina, Dunav, Vrbas and Zeta Banovinas. Like Sava, its capital was Zagreb.

Here's a map of the Banovina of Croatia which
In 1941, the World War II Axis Powers occupied the Banovina of Croatia and the province was abolished. Some of the coastal areas from Split to Zadar and near the Gulf of Kotor were annexed by Fascist Italy but the remainder became a part of the Independent State of Croatia. Following World War II, the region was divided between new states of Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia (autonomous Vojvodina province) within a federal Socialist Yugoslavia.
So it wasn't Tito's pen run amok.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 6th, 2009 at 03:57:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Cvetković-Maček Agreement was about as ill conceived as the transfer of Crimea from Russian to Ukrainian control in 1954 by Nikita Khrouchtchev.
by vladimir on Mon Apr 6th, 2009 at 04:08:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You may be right.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 6th, 2009 at 04:18:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Serb delegation which negotiated the deal was led by Prince Paul and Cvetković and didn't include any Serbian political representatives in parliament. The Serbian King's main motivation in signing this deal was to shore up his increasingly weak position in Belgrade... by gaining Croat support. It was vehemently opposed by various Serb political groups because it subordinated very large areas of the kingdom to the Croat regional government.
by vladimir on Mon Apr 6th, 2009 at 04:46:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From the Banovina of Croatia article:
The banovinas of Yugoslavia, established in 1929, deliberately avoided following ethnic or religious boundaries which resulted in the country's ethnic Croats, like other ethnic groups, being divided among several banovinas. Following a struggle within the unitary Kingdom of Yugoslavia, Croat leaders won autonomy for a new ethnic-based banovina with the Cvetković-Maček Agreement.


Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 6th, 2009 at 04:19:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Tito (a Croat... some insiders say a native Russian who poached the real Tito's identity during the Spanish civil war... but that's another story)
Some insiders? Which insiders?


Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 6th, 2009 at 06:06:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The primary source of that information was Tito's Chief of Staff and Protocol - the late Mirko Milutinovic.

Tito had a slight but distinguishable Russian accent which he never managed to get rid of. Speculation has it that the real Tito died during the Spanish Civil War and was replaced by an NKVD agent - the new Tito. These theories were popular in Yugoslavia from 1945 up until the break with Stalin in 1948. Evidence cited pointed to Yugoslav policy which seemed to be dictated from Moscow.

Here's an extract from a CIA report from 1945:

In foreign affairs, as in internal affairs, Russia is the lodestone governing Tito's policies. In every international issue, whether it is the direct concern of Yugoslavia or not, Tito and his press assiduously follow Moscow's lead. In fact, Tito and his followers exhibit a servility toward the Kremlin which contrasts strangely with their otherwise dynamic individuality. It is enough for Moscow to express a view and the Belgrade press reprints it in toto, adding a few biting words of its own. Under these circumstances it is no small wonder that in Belgrade one finds no evidence of a corps of Russian agents directing the activities of individual ministries or agencies. Should the necessity arise for specific guidance, no doubt a brief message from Stalin to Tito would suffice.

Following the break with Stalin in 1948, Tito embarked on a policy of rapprochement with NATO which culminated in discussions about whether to admit Yugoslavia into the organization or not. Milutinovic maintained that Tito was ready to enter the organization but that the Americans were weary of accepting a potential Trojan horse into their back yard.

That said... I have no idea where the truth really stands.

by vladimir on Mon Apr 6th, 2009 at 07:09:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Another theory is that Tito was recruited by British intelligence operator (spy) Fitzroy MacLean - converted to Communism by Soviet mole James Klugmann. This explains why Churchill backed Tito as opposed to Draza Mihajlovic who would have been the 'natural' candidate for Western support during WWII. It also explains the defense pact signed between Greece, Turkey and Yugoslavia in 1953 which in effect brought Yugoslavia into NATO.
by vladimir on Fri Apr 10th, 2009 at 02:55:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A book published by Dr. Matunovic and Josip Kopinic - "Enigma Broz - ko ste vi druze predsednice" (The Broz Question - Who Are You Mr. President?) is also an excellent source of information.

The theory that Tito was in fact not Croatian is also put forward by these insiders. They mention, for example, that nobody in Kumrovac - Tito's alleged place of birth - actually recognised or knew Tito. Other circumstantial evidence is that after WWII, President Tito never met his mother, who was still alive.

by vladimir on Fri Apr 10th, 2009 at 03:52:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Dr Matunovic was Tito's personal doctor.
by vladimir on Fri Apr 10th, 2009 at 03:53:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The book you mention is most interesting. I happen to have heard of it before, and remember someone from Macedonia telling me some years ago that this Tito's doctor was intrigued by his patient's personal history. Like, for example, how did someone with a supposedly poor background could play (well?) the piano and speak 7(?) languages... This same person said to me that Tito was thought of being a friend of Churchill and a Freemason and that the real Tito had died in some war and the one we know as such was a Pole aristocrat that stole his identity with the purpose of making "a Socialist experiment called Yugoslavia"(!). I don't know what of this is fact, what is what I call "thesis" or what part of this is mere theory. I only remember him mentioning this book and some local TV shows made about Tito. But, since then, I have been most curious to know more about this book, but I can't read the language in which it was written. Which is it, by the way? Serbo-Croatian? Could you please briefly describe me the content of this book, so that I can possibly present it to someone who's willing to do some research about it? Are there any other good sources concerning this same subject that Tito's personal background might not correspond with the official story?
by portuguese citizen on Fri May 1st, 2009 at 11:53:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
gave the coast line to Croatia in 1943 during the 2nd AVNOJ Council in Jajce, Bosnia.

Migeru dug up what the preceding situations were back to your first map (1929, 1939 administrative changes). But your choice of the 1929 situation is arbitrary, we can go further back. In 1921-1929, there were no large regional units that could even be mistaken for national units like the 1929 version, just small oblasts. Before that, there was more or less a continuity of the territorial units of Austria-Hungary. Within that, Croatia was more or less as today along the Dalmatian Coast (while it extended further down to Belgrade along the Danube but missed Istria).

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 6th, 2009 at 10:16:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Certainly.

You could go back even further and show that Serbia was once established on the territory of Bosnia and had control of 50% of the Dalmatian coast.

The point is that the national borders that we see today emerging from ex-Yugoslavia are those that Tito drew up in 1943.

by vladimir on Mon Apr 6th, 2009 at 10:25:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Your point was to make the 1943 borders look unjustified, by comparing them to preceding non-national divisions.

(I note that my own view is that Tito shouldn't have re-instated national borders, and should have taken over the pre-1939 centralisation policy while stripping it of the Serb-first element, and adding more cultural autonomy.)

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 6th, 2009 at 10:29:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From 1918 to 1929, there were 33 Oblasts in the Kingdom. They were administrative.

The map of the Banovinas that I posted represents the boundaries set up in 1929 which were effective up until 1939.

The borders established by the Cvetković-Maček Agreement were only effective as of 1939 for 2 years, up until the creation of Nazi puppet state NDH. NDH occupied what is today's Croatian plus Bosnian territories. IMHO, there is no basis to say that these frontiers (as opposed to others) should be used to compare the situations pre and post WWII.

In fact, all of these borders were of administrative nature and have no relation with the ethnic composition of the territories. If national self-determination is the goal, then maps based on ethnic composition of the population are most appropriate.

by vladimir on Tue Apr 7th, 2009 at 03:07:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Serbia was once established on the territory of Bosnia and had control of 50% of the Dalmatian coast

Which Serbia and era?

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 6th, 2009 at 10:31:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Couple of hundred years before the Turks invited themselves to the Balkans... ate all the mutton & left the pork to the local folks. That's why suckling pig is still such a hit today.


by vladimir on Mon Apr 6th, 2009 at 10:39:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by vladimir on Mon Apr 6th, 2009 at 10:45:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Tito (a Croat... some insiders say a native Russian who poached the real Tito's identity during the Spanish civil war... but that's another story)

There is no mention of Tito being in the Spanish Civil War in the English Wikipedia article...

In 1934 the Zagreb Provincial Committee sent Tito to Vienna where the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Yugoslavia had sought refuge. He was appointed to the Committee and started to appoint allies to him, among them Edvard Kardelj, Milovan Djilas, Aleksander Rankovic, and Boris Kidric. In 1935, Tito traveled to the Soviet Union, working for a year in the Balkan section of Comintern. He was a member of the Soviet Communist Party and the Soviet secret police (NKVD). In 1936, the Comintern sent "Comrade Walter" (i.e. Tito) back to Yugoslavia to purge the Communist Party there. In 1937, Stalin had the Secretary-General of the CPY, Milan Gorkić, murdered in Moscow. Subsequently Tito was appointed Secretary-General of the still-outlawed CPY.


Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Apr 8th, 2009 at 05:27:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Uncovered: Tito was a veteran of the Spanish Civil War!
Pero Simić, 24.08.2008

Tito's personal files, which were considered Russian state secret for over 70 years and held in Stalin's archives (currently the Presidential Archives of the Kremlin) have recently been made public. According to these documents, which detail a large part of the Komintern's activities, Tito is said to have participated in the Spanish Civil War. This is something that Tito consistently omitted from his numerous biographies. The mistery was all the greater considering that all the other veterans of the Spanish Civil War proudly promoted theur roles in this endeavour, considered to be a great achievement.

Tito, on the other hand, consistently avoided the subject like the plague. He had only two public phrases to share with the world about the Spanish Civil War. Namely, in a biography for Life Magazine - 5 May 1959, he is reported as saying : "Although there are rumours to the contrary, I am not a veteran of the Spanish Civil War, even though I would have liked to be. I was in Spain only on one occasion, briefly, when I spent a day in Madrid". A year later, Tito instructed the author of his biography, Vladimir Dedijer, who had helped him prepare the article for Life Magazine, to make no mention whatsoever of these two sentences in a book published in Yugoslavia in 1953.

Indeed, all journalists were prohibited from engaging in public speculations about his role in the Spanish Civil War. The Moscow Presidential Archives, which are off limites to foreigners, recently transferred a number of documents concerning Tito to the Rissian National Archive of Socio-Political History. Tito's political heritage can as of now be found in a single place, accessible to both Russian and foreign researchers.

We can at last come to grips with one of Tito's most closely kept secrets. A reporter from « Novosti » informs us that his research has uncovered a document which clearly confirms that "... Josip Broz Tito participated in the Spanish Civil War from 1936 to 1939.". And so we uncover another of the Grate Magician's secrets, which has been a source of conjecture for many decades throughout the world and in Yugoslavia.

Speculation was increasingly public near the end of Tito's life when in a book about him entitled "Great Achievements" was published containing a letter he wrote in late 1937 to Moscow in which he suggested that Moscow accept a Croat Communist - Ivan Krajačića, for "specialised political instruction" claiming that Krajačića had proven his valour during the Spanish Civil War. Tito made another recommendation on the same grounds for Slovenian Communist Josip Kopinič.

Another document was found in which Tito's closest associate, Edvard Kardelj claimed that he remembers how the Leader of the Yugoslav Communists spoke well of the Slovenian Communist Franc Rozman, whom he remembered as a good man from the Spanish Civil War.

Tito's participation in the Spanish Civil War was also confirmed by the Chief of the Spanish Communists Dolores Ibaruri. Nevertheless, Toto consistently negated his presence in Spain.

Now that the truth has finally been uncovered in the Russian archives, the natural question that arises is why Tito so vehemently negated his participation in a War that all others openly bragged about. The most logical answer is that Tito wanted to cover up his real role in this war, which wasn't one of combat but of "special actions" which would have polluted his otherwise rich biography.

by vladimir on Wed Apr 8th, 2009 at 09:52:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Metapedia article you link to also doesn't mention any participation in the Spanish Civil War.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Apr 8th, 2009 at 11:54:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Some sources in Spanish...
AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1 (based on http://www.semanarioserbio.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=1954) claims there is some evidence.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Apr 8th, 2009 at 12:04:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
http://nemacenzure.7.forumer.com/viewtopic.php?t=551

Marshal Tito, who by his real Jewish name is called Josif Walter Weiss, was born in Poland. He was agent of the Soviet secret service in Kabul, Teheran and Ankara up to 1935. The true Brozovich Tito, in origin a Croat, died during the Spanish civil war in Barcelona.

http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/2WWtito.htm

On the outbreak of the Spanish Civil War the Comintern established the Dimitrov Battalion. Named after Georgi Dimitrov the battalion comprised of Greeks and people from the Balkans. Tito eventually became one of the battalion's senior commanders.

There's a photo of (what the author says is) Tito in the Brigades.

by vladimir on Wed Apr 8th, 2009 at 02:05:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by vladimir on Wed Apr 8th, 2009 at 10:03:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
http://en.metapedia.org/wiki/Josua_Ambroz_Tito

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Apr 8th, 2009 at 11:51:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What war are you talking about? WWII?

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 6th, 2009 at 04:22:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I would argue that once the process of self determination starts, it should be allowed to play out to the end.

If the Croats want to live in a Croat state... they should be allowed to do so. There is absolutely no valid political or economic reason which should deny the Croats the right to choose their national orientations, while at the same time allowing the Albanians in Kosovo the right to choose theirs.

By maintaining the status quo, Bosnia is likely to remain on life support for a very long time to come. I don't believe that's in the long-term interests of either the local populations or Europe. The local populations (in particular the Muslims) need to get to grips with real politik and understand that they will never dominate Bosnia without another bloody war - which could end up harming their populations more than the Croats or Serbs.

US policy will be instrumental in shaping the region's future. If the current administration encourages the Muslims to seek a 'united Bosnia' we're likely to see antagonism, tensions and even war. On the other hand, if US policy follows the line of ethnic self-determination, we're likely to see some short-term tension but long-term peace.

by vladimir on Mon Apr 6th, 2009 at 09:47:28 AM EST
Considering Bosnia has been an EU protectorate for nearly 15 years and will remain one for the time being, I don't see why you think US policy is what matters.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 6th, 2009 at 10:02:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Because it's enough for Washington to promise military assistance (intervention) to any one side for the antagonism to reach its pinnacle. Ain't nothin' Europe can do about that. Look at the Vance Owen plan. Supported by Europe. Torpedoed by Washington precisely using the mechanism cited above.
by vladimir on Mon Apr 6th, 2009 at 10:09:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How can the Serbs argue possession of Kosovo while simultaneously thinking of secession from Bosnia?

Are we talking about a total and complete rewriting of borders across ALL of the former Yugo?

Bosnia, Kosovo, Macedonia, even some parts of Serbia?

Would that satisfy everyone? Or just create more trouble?

Nevermind the fact that 100,000 died in vain.

by Upstate NY on Mon Apr 6th, 2009 at 11:19:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How can the Serbs argue possession of Kosovo while simultaneously thinking of secession from Bosnia?

The same way that the West can argue independence for Kosovo while insisting on a unitary Bosnia. My understanding is that Serbs have made offers to negotiate a global solution.

Are we talking about a total and complete rewriting of borders across ALL of the former Yugo?

Redrawing the maps of Slovenia & Croatia are out of the question - I presume. What IS on the table is the rest. Here are some ideas of possible solutions:

Bosnia - split into 3, with a big problem for the Muslims who would end up with 2 separate states with no land link. Although this seems unworkable at first glance, I would argue that once each ethnic group establishes full sovereignty over its area, the power base of the ultra nationalists will wane and an environment of reconciliation might take root. The whole deal could be made conditional on each side accepting the free movement of people, goods & services between the different entities - and why not between the ex-Yugoslav republics?

Serbia - the areas where there are conflicting claims are Presevo and Bujanovac which are majority Albanian and Sandzak - which is Serbian Muslim (Bosniak if you prefer or Turckicised Slavs - now THAT doesn't exist in any dictionary). Sandzak has no viability as an independent state and can't be attached to other Muslim areas in Bosnia, plus there isn't any repression of Muslims in Sandzak - so I would leave it as part of Serbia. Regarding Presevo and Bujanovac, I would argue that it should remain in Serbia to compensate for all the lost Serb enclaves in Kosovo (see below)

Kosovo - The northern tip is easy to manage - the large majority being Serb. It could, however, create an psychological problem for the Albanians because the Trepca mine is located in the North (worth about 5B€) as are some large freshwater lakes which are source of most of Pristina's water. No easy solution in sight with regards to the Serb enclaves within Kosovo, nor the many hundreds of cultural and religious sites in what Serbs consider their Jerusalem... only viable solution is to hand that over to the Albanians with some sort of UNESCO protection.

Macedonia - split in two: Western Albanian and Eastern Slav Macedonian.

Would that satisfy everyone? Or just create more trouble?

Certainly wouldn't satisfy everyone, but I think that it would satisfy more people than the current situation which doesn't satisfy anyone either.

Nevermind the fact that 100,000 died in vain.

Those people died in van no matter what ultimate solution is implemented.

by vladimir on Mon Apr 6th, 2009 at 12:54:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, you're not unreasonable but, I'm not convinced by answers to #4 (would this cause more trouble?).

I'd say you're probably better off waiting for the EU as currently comprised.

by Upstate NY on Mon Apr 6th, 2009 at 02:26:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't believe the EU is going there. Not now. Not in 10 years. After that is another life and who knows where the power will be. There might be Chinese aircraft carriers floating off Dubrovnik.

But even if the EU prospect materialises, I unfortunately think that every national minority is just going to be waiting for their day to reclaim. Sort that out now & you'll eliminate potential sources of future cancers.

by vladimir on Mon Apr 6th, 2009 at 02:40:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am more or less expecting Bosnia to be EUs Puerto Rico for some time. Good place as any to develop the structures of neo-colonialism for the new state. I do not consider this to be a good thing, though I consider it likely.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!
by A swedish kind of death on Wed Apr 8th, 2009 at 04:57:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why would you like it to be "European protectorate" any longer? Why WOULDN'T YOU TRY TO COME WITH SOLUTION?
Do you really believe that there is possibility of Bosnia where Muslims will rule and Serbs and Croats would agree with it?Don't you understand that there is no money or political promise to make it work?
Do you understand that what happened on Kosovo was only possible because there is no enough Serbs there.And after bombardment of Serbia by nothing less then NATO even that story hasn't finished yet.
You can occupy country ( Serbia was occupied for 500 years by Ottomans and it didn't make Serbian orthodoxs change in to the Islam in significant numbers to make it Turkish state) you can do what ever you want but you can hardly make LASTING state if citizens are not willing to live together.And in Bosnia they are NOT.The fact that (rotten) politicians use this fact for their own purpose will not change anything.No one except Muslims want unifying Bosnia.There would be no war if this was not a case.
by vbo on Mon Apr 6th, 2009 at 11:06:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It seems quite clear that there are very few people in that area who have any interest in a solution. Your comments make that clearer and clearer ...
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Apr 6th, 2009 at 11:15:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You know, if an EU protectorate will prevent or delay another round of mass murder, I'm all for it.

What I am no so sure of is that the EU diplomats actually understand Bosnia. EU15 diplomats seem to have precious little clue about the rest of the EU, let alone the bits outside it, even 5 years after the expansion to 25.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 6th, 2009 at 12:14:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What I am no so sure of is that the EU diplomats actually understand Bosnia.
----------
Not really...and they are also not interested to...
And even those of you much better informed and willing to understand are not really able to understand that mentality and history that lay behind events of today...
by vbo on Tue Apr 7th, 2009 at 09:59:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know why you think the US has a stake in this. Other than stability in the region, I don't think the US cares much one way or the other. Unless it gets out that Europe is botching the job, and I don't see that at all.

There are a few caveats. The US cares about its credibiltiy. If we're somehow a stakeholder (I don't believe we are much) we will often extend our pursuit of a policy. Even a flawed policy. Then there's the whole regional stability issue. If we see, say, strong Russian backing for Serb militancy in getting its way without regard to other nationalities, then it becomes a great power game. At that point, we cannot remain neutral. If tanks start rolling across frontiers, I think we'd offer aid, but not troops, and I am certain we'd have words with Moscow about that beforehand. Our standing in the Muslim world is also another consideration (though I believe this a deeply flawed analysis). It has been pointed out that our supposed help (I seem to remember an arms embargo) of the Muslim community in the FRY can be used to counter the theme in the Middle East that America hates Islam.

As long as Serbs, Kosovars, Bosniaks, Croats, etc., intend to work out their own issues without too much violence, I think the US would be content to stay out of it.

I also believe we'd be more than happy at this point to let the Europeans field this one with our support, but without our direction.

It'd take some real nastiness for the US to take its eyes of itself, which usually is where they like to focus anyways. Remember, democrats still have political momentum (a little), and that means the policy focus will be mostly domestic (jobs, education, healthcare, the economy, restoring trust in banking and business, etc.). Blame 9/11 for making Americans feel as if security is a major domestic issue. That's what has Obama on the news from Europe, the Middle East, etc. Otherwise, that would be buried on page 9 or something.

In the US, nobody is talking about the Balkans. They're talking about Afghanistan.

"It Can't Be Just About Us"
--Frank Schnittger, ETian Extraordinaire

by papicek (papi_cek_at_hotmail_dot_com) on Wed Apr 8th, 2009 at 01:06:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
then did the Americans build their largest European base in Kosovo?

by vladimir on Wed Apr 8th, 2009 at 11:27:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, it is obvious what the US game in Kosovo is. Failed states make great beachheads.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Apr 8th, 2009 at 11:42:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Other than stability in the region, I don't think the US cares much one way or the other.

I see the US more as a destabilizing factor in most regions it's been involved in since the 1990s.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Apr 8th, 2009 at 11:43:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Spot on Migeru.
by vladimir on Wed Apr 8th, 2009 at 12:52:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Looks like there could be more destabilisation ahead.

Bosnian Serb leader against appointing U.S. special envoy  

BELGRADE, April 8 (Xinhua) -- Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodikon Wednesday warned the United States to refrain from appointing a special envoy for the troubled Balkan country, Bosnia's news web portal Pincom reported.

"Solutions should be sought within the boundaries of local institutions and that should be possible unless requests for general changes are irrational and unrealistic," Dodik told a news conference in the Bosnian city of Banja Luka.

"I count on the U.S. administration being sensible, but if it decides (to appoint a special envoy), those who make such a decision will also be responsible for its success or failure," said Dodik, prime minister of the Bosnian Serb entity of Republika Srpska.

He said that announcements about the appointment of a U.S. special envoy for the Balkans were the result of lobbying by those who wanted radical changes in Bosnia-Herzegovina.

According to diplomatic sources, the idea of the new U.S. administration appointing a new envoy for the Balkans has been increasingly getting broader local and international support, and the U.S. State Department continues to contemplate this possibility.

...

by vladimir on Thu Apr 9th, 2009 at 02:50:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the idea of the new U.S. administration appointing a new envoy for the Balkans has been increasingly getting broader local and international support

Everyone is in thrall to Obama and they want a piece of his magic in Bosnia, too.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Apr 9th, 2009 at 03:05:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/main/news/18039/

The situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina is complex, with strong distrust among leaders of the three constituent peoples which triggers tensions and hampers advancement of the country," Kouchner said in an interview published by Banja Luka daily Nezavisne Novine on Thursday.

We are a bit scared about the developments in the last years where Bosnia and Herzegovina is lagging behind in its development behind the neighboring states," Schwarzenberg told a press conference on Wednesday night, after the three ministers met Bosnia's tripartite presidency.

Now I don't remember the EU being scared when Kosovo wanted to secede - and insisting that the Serbs and Albanians make compromises for the country "... to advance".

by vladimir on Fri Apr 10th, 2009 at 10:14:41 AM EST


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