LQD: Cameron's answer to crisis - copy California's disaster

by Ted Welch
Wed May 27th, 2009 at 06:49:54 AM EST



"I believe there is only one way out of this national crisis we face," said Mr Cameron.

"We need a massive, sweeping, radical redistribution of power. From the state to citizens; from the Government to parliament; from Whitehall to communities. From Brussels to Britain; from judges to the people; from bureaucracy to democracy. Through decentralisation, transparency and accountability we must take power away from the political elite and hand it to the man and woman in the street."

...
He expounded on his theme of the "redistribution of power", and suggested ... The right to initiate local and national referendums.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5390171/MPs-expenses-David-Cameron-pledges-t o-give-more-power-to-public-under-reforms.html

Hasn't Cameron heard of California? We've seen that such politics by "initiative" leads to disaster:


Bill Maher:

It's not Arnold's fault that California has a worse credit rating than Louisiana, a state that's half underwater and half in the bag.

You see, our state is designed to be ungovernable because we govern by ballot initiative, and we only write two kinds of them: "Spend money on things I like" and "Don't raise my taxes." More money for teachers and firefighters? Check "yes"! High-speed rail? "Cooool!" Drug treatment for former child actors? "Sure, why not?" But don't even think of taxing me for any of it.
...

This is why our founders wanted a representative democracy, because they knew that if you give the average guy the chance, he'll vote for a fantasy world with no taxes and free beer.
...
But before you laugh at us, remember: This desire to have everything and give up nothing is a national condition, not just a California thing. Like everything else, we just take what's real, exaggerate it, add some explosions and give it a giant pair of fake breasts.

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-maher21-2009may21,0,7944770.story


Like other states, California is suffering from a collapse in tax revenues brought on by the recession. Unlike other states, it suffers from severely dysfunctional politics, including gridlock-inducing budget procedures and a deeply anti-tax strain that plays itself out in endless voter referenda, dating back to the Proposition 13 property tax cap from the 1970s. As a result, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger declared recently that more tax increases are politically impossible. Yet, his proposed spending cuts are also unappealing, if not impossible, including slashing education and health care funds and releasing prison inmates early.

What the Obama administration should make clear is that a bias for spending cuts -- and against tax increases -- is the wrong approach for California and other states. Both spending cuts and tax increases are harmful in a downturn, because they reduce already weak consumer demand. But most states are required by law to balance their budgets, so when deficits emerge, they are forced to do one or the other, or both.

Contrary to conventional wisdom, raising taxes may be better than spending cuts because tax increases, especially if they are focused on wealthy taxpayers, have less of a negative impact on consumption. Spending cuts hit consumption hard, depriving the economy of money that would otherwise be spent quickly. They also have the disadvantage -- so evident in the cuts proposed by Mr. Schwarzenegger -- of falling heavily on the needy.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/24/opinion/24sun1.html


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See also Sven's diary of 19 May The Devil's Voter.
by Sassafras on Wed May 27th, 2009 at 07:01:38 AM EST
I have an extremely uncomfortable level of cognitive dissonance on this issue, insofar as I don't feel able to say that most of my fellow subjects aren't prepared for direct democracy, but I still suspect I really wouldn't like the country likely to emerge if they were granted it.

In a way, though, it's not all that surprising that people who have always been treated like children act that way when given some real responsibility for the first time. I know enough people who ran amok with their first credit card, for instance, who then had to learn the facts of economic life the hard way.

I would say that the California experiment isn't finished, because the consequences of those decisions still have to be lived.  What happens if the state becomes bankrupt?  Will the dire consequences convince people to vote in a more realistic way in future?  It's far more morally complex than a credit card bill, of course, because the choices of each voter don't just affect them personally. Maybe it's the gap between responsibility and accountability that's the problem?  At least politicians responsible for such a mess would face electoral consequences.

by Sassafras on Wed May 27th, 2009 at 07:57:34 AM EST

I have an extremely uncomfortable level of cognitive dissonance on this issue, insofar as I don't feel able to say that most of my fellow subjects aren't prepared for direct democracy, but I still suspect I really wouldn't like the country likely to emerge if they were granted it.

I don't have any cognitive dissonance about it. To be for democracy in principle doesn't mean agreeing to any version of it - such as referenda on "initiatives" - as in Calif. Representaive democracy means that in principle there is a group of people voted in to give more detailed consideration to the very complex issues involved in running a large, developed society.

Apart from the average citizen's lack of time or inclination - given the pressures of work, family life, etc., there is the problem of a capitalist system with an inadequate education system, news media geared to making profits rather than spreading enlightenment. So there is a big difference between the potential of one's fellow citzens and the reality of the state of their knowledge and understanding. Cf Chomsky on the issue of potential in relation to sport:

In fact, I have the habit when I'm driving of turning on these radio call-in programs, and it's striking when you hear the ones about sports. They have these groups of sports reporters, or some kind of experts on a panel, and people call in and have discussions with them. First of all, the audience obviously is devoting an enormous amount of time to it all. But the more striking fact is, the callers have a tremendous amount of expertise, they have detailed knowledge of all kinds of things, they carry on these extremely complex discussions...
...

Well, in our society we have things that you might use your intelligence on, like politics, but people really can't get involved in them in a very serious way -- so what they do is put their minds to other things, such as sports. You're trained to be obedient; you don't have an interesting job; there's no work around for you that's creative; in the cultural environment you're a passive observer of usually pretty tawdry stuff...So what's left?

Noam Chomsky; Understanding Power, p. 99-100

In relation to serious complex issues like crime, the majority are relatively uninformed and influenced by media exaggerations:

There is a widespread perception that the public are very draconian on law and order: hang `em, flog `em, lock `em up and throw away the key. In one sense they certainly are. Asked in this month's ICM poll if sentences passed by the courts are too soft, too harsh or about right people overwhelmingly think the courts are not handing down harsh enough sentences. 77% think too soft, 18% about right and only 2% too harsh.

...

It would appear people don't really think prison works, but at the same time wouldn't want any alternative that would be seen as an easy option. They want harsher alternatives to prisoners, not nicer ones!
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The first question though can also be interpreted though by looking at whether people actually have an accurate perception of what sort of sentences are currently handed down. Unless people work in, or find themselves the subject of the criminal justice system, the only contact they'll really have with sentencing is newspaper outrage about whatever short sentence has been handed down for the latest heinous crime, and that doesn't necessarily give a very balanced view.
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The overall picture though isn't one of the public being wildly more draconian than the actual legal system though - the public would give longer sentences to muggers, thieves and people in possession of child porn and larger fines across the board, but across the board there really isn't a major contrast here between what sentences the public hand down and what sentences judges hand down.

So is the perception that being tough on crime is a vote winner wrong? Not necessarily - people who consider the issue of crime to be important and whose vote may be heavily influenced by crime policy may well be more right wing on the issue than people who really don't care much about crime. Equally, just because demands for harsher sentences may be based upon misconceptions about how tough sentencing currently is, it doesn't make that feeling any less of a driver of opinion.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1022



Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice. Blog - Nice Experience
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Wed May 27th, 2009 at 11:05:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Netherlands to close prisons for lack of criminals

The Dutch justice ministry has announced it will close eight prisons and cut 1,200 jobs in the prison system. A decline in crime has left many cells empty.

During the 1990s the Netherlands faced a shortage of prison cells, but a decline in crime has since led to overcapacity in the prison system. The country now has capacity for 14,000 prisoners but only 12,000 detainees.


by das monde on Thu May 28th, 2009 at 03:04:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem is not referenda or public initiative it is the framework for those referenda. If you want disaster, copy California. If you want it to work, copy Switzerland. I believe they hold referendums like "should tax X be raised by Y centimes to fund Z?" (Fran might want to correct me).

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!
by A swedish kind of death on Wed May 27th, 2009 at 09:01:06 AM EST

Although some advocates of direct democracy would have the referendum become the dominant institution of government, in practice and in principle, in almost all cases, the referendum exists solely as a complement to the system of representative democracy, in which most major decisions are made by an elected legislature. An often cited exception is the Swiss canton of Glarus, in which meetings are held on the village lawn to decide on matters of public concern. In most jurisdictions that practice them, referendums are relatively rare occurrences and are restricted to important issues.
...
Critics of the referendum argue that voters in a referendum are more likely driven by transient whims than careful deliberation, or that they are not sufficiently informed to make decisions on complicated or technical issues. Voters might furthermore be swayed by strong personalities, or the adverse influence of propaganda or expensive advertising campaigns. James Madison argued that direct democracy is the "tyranny of the majority."

Some opposition to the referendum has arisen from its use by dictators such as Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini who, it is argued, used the plebiscite to disguise oppressive policies in a veneer of populism. Hitler's use of the plebiscite is argued as reason why, since World War II, there has been no provision in Germany for the holding of referendums at the federal level.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendum



Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice. Blog - Nice Experience
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Wed May 27th, 2009 at 11:17:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course he wants to copy our mess. What California has become is a state populated by progressive voters (61% voted for Obama in November with a 75% turnout rate) but governed by a right-wing constitution. That model would be perfect in Britain, from a Tory point of view.

The initiative, referendum, and recall process has been thoroughly gamed by the right-wing. They are able to bring their money and their hardcore base to show up to vote on these things, where complex issues are reduced to simplistic, passionate soundbites.

This strikes me as a rearguard action to stave off calls for proportional representation. Instead, using the California model, a well-funded right-wing party can dominate politics even when the mass of voters do not share their views.

The Westminster system has its flaws, but nothing quite as bad as the Sacramento system. A relatively minor row over expenses is no reason to go running to embrace a system that increasingly resembles Weimar Germany or Poland-Lithuania under the liberum veto.

And the world will live as one

by Montereyan (robert at calitics dot com) on Wed May 27th, 2009 at 02:26:58 PM EST


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