European Tribune - Community, Politics & Progress.

Business As Usual, Story As Usual

by afew
Wed Jan 6th, 2010 at 04:39:14 AM EST

The top economics spot, at 7.25 am, on France's main public radio, France Inter, was for long held by ultra-liberal pundit Jean-Marc Sylvestre. He was replaced not long ago by a journalist at business daily Les Echos, Dominique Seux. Here's the kind of editorial you can expect to hear in France at that peak-audience moment in the morning. Seux's:

France Inter > Les chroniques > L'édito éco		France Inter > Columnists > Economics leader
seul voeu pour 2010, c'est que l'Europe se ressaisisse, qu'elle se réveille si elle ne veut pas être marginalisée comme un continent sympathique mais sur le déclin. Cette inquiétude se nourrit de l'actualité la plus récente.		only wish for 2010, is that Europe gets its act together and wakes up if it doesn't want to be marginalized like a nice, friendly continent that's in decline. This concern is fed by the most recent news.

The worrying news items are that Volvo has been taken over by Geely; that S Korea got the Abou Dhabi nuclear contract instead of the French consortium; that Europe was sidelined in Copenhagen when the US and China decided they would go ahead at the pace that suited them, ignoring Europe's climate-change "leadership". Concludes Seux: la roue tourne, et pas dans le sens européen (the wheel turns, and not in Europe's favour).

An irrelevant, marginalized, declining Europe that no one takes any notice of. Where have we heard that before? Probably from Charles Grant's "Indian official" who wouldn't have time to meet anyone from the EU unless it was the traffic-stopping Tony Blair. Or from five hundred other neoliberal concern trolls.

Seux goes on to read the tea leaves that matter:

la grande question est de savoir quelle place l'Europe va conserver, dans quels secteurs elle va garder son avance. Si on regarde les données économiques globales et les dernières prévisions, on voit que les Etats-Unis devraient redémarrer cette année autour de + 2,5%, que la Chine cavale à près de 10%, et que l'Europe tournera autour de 1% après avoir chuté de 4% l'an dernier.		the main question is what place Europe is going to hold on to, in what sectors it will stay ahead. Looking at global economic data and the latest forecasts, we see that the US should start up again this year at around 2.5%, that China is galloping at almost 10%, and that Europe will be running at around 1% after losing 4% last year.
C'est vrai, ces scénarios sont flottants, il y a par exemple un risque de rechute aux Etats-Unis et le modèle social de l'Europe continentale a mieux tenu. Mais on voit bien que l'Europe ne peut pas être seulement un modèle social, elle doit avoir un modèle économique qui n'est pas clairement identifié aujourd'hui, sur l'innovation, la recherche, les technologies. Voilà donc, plus qu'un voeu, une proposition : celle d'un débat sur l'identité économique européenne !		True, these are not hard and fast scenarios, there is for example a risk of relapse in the States, and Europe's social model held out better. But it's clear to see that Europe can't only be a social model, it needs an economic model that isn't well identified today, around innovation, research, and technology. So more than a wish, here's a proposal: a debate on the European economic identity!

"Global economic data", huh? With the crisis miraculously fixed by Ben Bernanke, sorry, the crisis that may still be ongoing, well, in any case, with the crisis, we'd be expecting an economics expert to be alive to new and finer metrics - in which case, we'd be wrong, because, unless I'm mistaken, these are GDP growth figures Seux is throwing at us, comparing apples with oranges with wild abandon (two-digit growth in a developing economy compared with single-digit in developed ones), and therefore essentially comparing a 2.5% number he admits is shaky with a forecast for Europe (and about which the truth is he knows sweet FA also).

But there's at least a "social model". There are things they're all having to admit (after all, the global economy nearly did go pop, and it's far from out of trouble yet), but it's only the better to return to the good old need for reform. What's the economic model we're talking about here?

Peut-il être mené à Bruxelles ?

Ce n'est pas sûr, cette époque est peut-être terminée, la crise a montré que l'intergouvernemental fonctionne mieux que le niveau européen. Il y a dix ans, en 2000, l'Europe avait adopté la stratégie de Lisbonne pour se mettre au niveau en terme de compétitivité. Cette année, elle va renouveler l'exercice. Mais juste une remarque : on attend encore les premières déclarations du nouveau président de l'Europe, Hermann Von (sic) Rompuy.

Can it be held in Brussels?
That's not sure, that era is perhaps over, the crisis has shown that the intergovernmental works better than the European level. Ten years ago, in 2000, Europe adopted the Lisbon strategy to raise its competitiveness game. This year, it will go through the same paces. But just one remark: we are still waiting for the first words from the new president of Europe, Hermann Von (sic) Rompuy.

Ah, the Lisbon Strategy, that talked about innovation in the service of competitiveness (out comes the big word). And let's have some Euroscepticism Lite: the supranational level doesn't work, intergovernmental is better (never mind that at Copenhagen, billed above as a failure for Europe, the intergovernmental shows of Brown, Sarkozy, Merkel, and the Swedish presidency, were all out there trying and failing to be the big hitters). Let's suggest that the president of the European Council should be doing stuff his job doesn't require (that a "big" president would be doing in spades, just imagine Tony).

It's the same old tired song. With just a mandatory hint of hedging with crisis concerns.

The crisis which, as we all know, came out of the blue.

From Dominique Seux's editorial, Monday, 4 January, France Inter.

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Business As Usual, Story As Usual | 12 comments (12 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Business As Usual, Story As Usual (4.00 / 10)

What I find striking is that this "economic analysis" is almost entirely devoid of any economic analysis - even bad or abhorrent analysis. The author adopts the conclusions of a flawed economic system as precepts for a critique of social policy and public institutions.

Sadly, the level of discourse in other countries seems to be equally thin.

Jesus died for somebody's sins but not mine - Patti Smith

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Jan 6th, 2010 at 03:46:27 AM EST

Re: Business As Usual, Story As Usual (4.00 / 6)

Yes, there's nothing special about this that distinguishes it from standard orthodox punditry anywhere else. It's just another sign of the return to business as usual. For the moment, there are a few necessary concessions to the fact of the crisis, but they, I predict, will soon disappear.

And we'll be getting the same old narrative as before.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Jan 6th, 2010 at 05:04:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Business As Usual, Story As Usual (4.00 / 9)

Here I quoted SPIEGEL doing it for New Year's Day. To quote it again:

Outlook for 2010: German Economy on Brink of Radical Restructuring - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

The German economy coped astonishingly well with the global crisis in 2009. But in 2010 it will need to lay the foundations for a radical restructuring if it wants to cope with chronic overcapacity in its aging industries and fend off powerful new competitors from China and India. Does the country need a new business model? SPIEGEL provides an outlook for 2010.

The contradictory start is pretty standard for neolib propaganda in Germany for two decades (in fact one of the first discrepancies with reality that caught my eye and got my ire against neoliberalism a decade ago): they first acknowledge the failure of previous predictions of doom and gloom, but rather than attempt to explain it, they go on to predict that now is really the time for doom and gloom...

...and they start with some greenwashing: the title is followed by a photo of an off-shore wind farm.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Wed Jan 6th, 2010 at 07:46:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Business As Usual, Story As Usual (4.00 / 8)

I wonder why they keep comparing GDP growth of the USA and EU without noting that there is a 1% differential in population growth rate - meaningless as GDP growth can be, 2% growth in the EU and 3% growth in the US mean the same economic growth...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Wed Jan 6th, 2010 at 04:17:19 AM EST

Re: Business As Usual, Story As Usual (4.00 / 4)

Possibly because they're too stupid to notice, or too craven to care.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Jan 6th, 2010 at 05:46:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Business As Usual, Story As Usual (4.00 / 6)

It always amazes me how few people connect the dots there. I think it's because, from what I can gather, nobody really teaches growth theory properly anymore. At least not beyond showing a couple models and moving on without actually explaining them.

Even people -- a few of my coworkers suffer this, even though they're plenty smart enough to get it once it's explained -- who should know better don't have the proper background to connect the dots and say, "Oh, well, what are the differences in population and productivity growth?"

There are plenty of people who well know what it means who are just looking to prey on people's ignorance. I suspect the pundits are probably 95% tools, though.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sat Jan 9th, 2010 at 09:31:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Business As Usual, Story As Usual (4.00 / 5)

For the people GDP/capita is more relevant then GDP, but who cares about the people?

The important thing appears to be to have maximum growth over-all so that there is more wealth to capture.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Jan 6th, 2010 at 05:46:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Business As Usual, Story As Usual (4.00 / 8)

I don't think there's any meaning at all to these figures as used by the punditry. They're like the familiar bits in the Latin mass, they give the ignorant faithful the feeling the priest is saying the right words properly.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Jan 6th, 2010 at 05:56:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Standard Noise (4.00 / 5)

nice catch. seems to be another example of how the neo-lib (and/or) right wing noise machine is becoming more and more global. Sad to see on such a key radio slot.

Can't comment more, as i must finish examining the lower breast curve of the naked woman below the fold on Pg 1 of my trusted Bild Zeitung, and then on to the analysis of how Michael Schumacher's return to F1 will likely lead to enhanced economic activity for the people who can afford to go to races. Isn't Gran Prix more important that GDP anyway? Isn't GDP for people who read graphs and shit?

Skennah Kowa

by Crazy Horse on Wed Jan 6th, 2010 at 05:59:35 AM EST

In a somewhat similar vein (4.00 / 4)

Les dangers potentiels du "retour de l'Etat"
La crise a légitimé le retour de l'État pour corriger les excès du marché. La persistance de fragilités, comme l'ont montrée les difficultés de Dubaï ou de la Grèce, laisse présager la poursuite des interventions publiques en 2010. En même temps, les économistes se concentrent déjà sur les stratégies de « sortie de crise », c'est-à-dire les moyens de réduire cette extension du champ politique, qui n'est pas sans danger.
(...)
Les excès de pouvoir économique d'État sont dangereux pour la compétitivité des pays concernés car, en dehors des situations d'urgence, rien ne permet de penser que la crise a modifié les règles du jeu, à savoir que la croissance est plus forte dans un système régi par la concurrence, la contestation possible des positions acquises par de nouveaux entrants, et la destruction créatrice à la Schumpeter plutôt que l'allocation des positions économiques par décret. Le « capitalisme autoritaire » à la manière russe est une mauvaise stratégie de croissance, après la crise comme avant.

From Nicolas Véron, whose articles I used to crosspost here on ET to give a view of what parts of the self-described French centrist left thinks.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Jan 6th, 2010 at 08:52:12 AM EST

Re: In a somewhat similar vein (4.00 / 6)

Whoa! The alternative to a competition-led system with Schumpeterian creative destruction is Russian-style "authoritarian capitalism"? Wasn't there a fair amount of Russian-style competitive/creative destruction in the decade before the authoritarianism? How well did that work out?

And why do we need a competition-led system with Schumpeterian creative destruction? Because growth is stronger that way (nothing apparently permits one to think otherwise). No consideration here of whether stronger growth is useful or necessary, it's axiomatic that it is the goal to be pursued.

And it's no less than: "the rules of the game".

So says Nicolas Véron, who knows how to argue from authority like all the best authoritarians.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Jan 6th, 2010 at 09:34:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I think this is GREAT! (4.00 / 2)

I'm not being sarcastic; I'm being serious.

If the EU's success, current or future, was not a recognized threat to the neocons YOU WOULD BE IGNORED!

The fact that they pay attention to your existence signifies that they FEAR YOU!!

Well Done! Keep it up!

I love the smell of roast chicken in the morning!

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Wed Jan 6th, 2010 at 08:55:51 AM EST

Business As Usual, Story As Usual | 12 comments (12 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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