for the skinny.)
Senate is too weird to predict. Rubio (GOP) is leading in the polls, Christie - the former GOP Gov. - is running as a Third Party Candidate, and Meeks (Dem) is aptly named. Rubio needs to win for the GOP to take the Senate; with Christie and Meeks splitting the anti-Tea Bagger vote it's likely he'll do it. IF Christie wins ... that's a good sign for a Dem Hold of the Senate.
FL-25 is an open House seat. It's expected to go GOP. If the Dem (Yarmouth) wins it's a VERY bad sign for the GOP as it is an indication they won't win the House.
FL-24 swings the other way. If the Dems don't hold this one it's hard to imagine they will hold the House by the end of the night.
FL-2, FL-08, FL-22 - If the GOP wins all of these it will be a very long night for the Dems. If the Dems win all or two out of the three they should remain in control of the House.
Georgia: Senate, GA-02, GA-08
I wouldn't bother with the Senate race except there are Good-News vibes coming out of the Georgia Democratic Party. If the Dems win this one the GOP won't take the Senate.
GA-02 should be a Dem hold. If they lose this one ...
GA-08 a "who knows" race. If the Dems get this one the chances of a GOP House get real slim.
New Hampshire Senate, NH-02
Senate - if the Dems lose this one the GOP will control the Senate. Hodes is leading by double digits and nobody expects a loss.
NH-02 is interesting as a solid Progressive, Ann Kuster, won the primary battle. Hodes vacated this seat to run for Senate. If she doesn't hold this seat the knives will be out for the Progressive Wing of the Democratic Party.
South Carolina Senate, SC-02, SC-05
Senate - GOP needs to hold this seat to take the Senate. It's likely that they will but there's a chance of a Dem squeaker. IF the Dems take this seat it could be an early indication of a VERY bad night for the GOP.
SC-02 and SC-05 - seats the GOP should win if they are going to take control of the House.
Virginia VA-02, VA-05, VA-9, VA-11
Again, these are seats the GOP needs to take control of the House. Every seat they don't get makes it that much tougher to win the House.
Ohio Governor, Senate, OH-01, OH-10, OH-13, OH-15, OH-16, OH-18
Ohio is a state the GOP HAS to have to win the 2012 presidential election. If they lose the Governorship it's going to be tough for them to do that in 2012. Dems got it. They need to hang on to it.
Senate - it's an open, formerly GOP, seat but the Dem has run a crappy campaign as state-wide Dems usually do in Ohio. The GOP has to hold this one to take the Senate and every indication says they will. If they don't --- look out.
OH-01, OH-10, OH-13, OH-15, OH-16, OH-18 - all of these seats are in play and the more the GOP picks-up the greater the chances of them winning the House.
West Virginia Senate, WV-01, WV-03.
Senate - The Dems need to hold this seat.
WV-01, WV-03 - Yet More seats the GOP needs to control the House.
By this time we should have a pretty good indication how the election is going to go.