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Oil plateaus

by Jerome a Paris Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 06:26:50 AM EST

The annual World Energy Outlook has just been published by the International Energy Agency (see the Executive Summary (pdf) and the presentation slides (pdf)). And it includes some interesting notes:



Will peak oil be a guest or the spectre at the feast?

The oil price needed to balance oil markets is set to rise, reflecting the growing insensitivity of both demand and supply to price. The growing concentration of oil use in transport and a shift of demand towards subsidised markets are limiting the scope for higher prices to choke off demand through switching to alternative fuels. And constraints on investment mean that higher prices lead to only modest increases in production.

 (...)

Crude oil output reaches an undulating plateau of around 68‐69 mb/d by 2020, but never regains its all‐time peak of 70 mb/d reached in 2006, while production of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and unconventional oil grows strongly.

They repeat some concepts that have been popularised by the Serious People: that of an "undulating plateau" rather than an outright peak, and that of a reduction in production caused by a reduction in demand rather than in available supply, but the message is clear: the debate on oil production peaking or not is over, and the peakers have won.

Their note that both demand and supply are becoming less sensitive to price is spot on, even if they gloss over the inevitable consequence that oil prices are going to become even more volatile.

Their scenarios finally include a noticeable presence for renewable energy in the mix, with renewables moving from one fifth (mostly hydro) to one third of power generation, and most of the increase coming from wind power. As in previous reports, they probably still understate these trends.


Display:
I like how the not found oil exactly replaces the oil we know will decline. Almost like it was fixed so :)

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 09:01:15 AM EST
They should tell us what part is "to be developed" and what part is "to be found". The distinction is serious enough that conflating the two categories is really not justified, especially if the aggregate happens to be a "fudge factor to keep conventional crude oil production constant".

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 09:40:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, they say Saudi Arabia and Iraq will supply the major increase in crude oil production - with SA at >5 mb/d between 2009 and 2035... and Iraq rising to 4.5 mb/d. (What was that war about again?)

Also coming to a pump near you: some wonderful Caspian (Kazakh) crude action.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 11:49:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Saudi Arabian production increasing? What are these guys smoking?

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 02:14:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Same old light crude BS.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 02:53:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
according to this graph, in 2015, around 10 mb/d (or more) will have to come from "to be developed" or "to be found". But, as far as I know, there is no way an oil field not known today could be in full production within 5 years. That means these 10 mb/d will have to come from oil fields which are already known and have "to be developed". How realistic is that?

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char
by Melanchthon on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 01:06:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
From the executive summary:
Iraq accounts for a  large share of the increase in OPEC output, commensurate with its large resource base, its crude oil output catching up with Iran's by around 2015 and its total output reaching 7 mb/d by 2035.
I'll let you judge how realistic this is.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 01:11:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Even if Iraq's capacity reached that level, why on earth would they pump oil in sufficient quantity to depress the price?

Producers have every interest in restricting supply at the level necessary to maximise their resource rent, and moreover, while dollars yield zero per cent, they have no reason to exchange valuable oil in the ground for dollars other than for necessary expenditure.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 01:18:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Would 50,000 US troops have anything to do with the answer?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 05:31:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ummhhh ... well, no, it wouldn't. The troops are going to help defend the oil fields just as fiercely if the price is going up as if the price is stable.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 11:57:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But the response was to the question of the rate at which the Iraqi government might choose to pump, or be able to pump the oil and, therefore, the price which they would receive for it, as well as to whom they might sell the oil. Call me a cynic, but I suspect that the continued presence of the US troops has something to do with those questions as well.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 09:05:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have no doubt that there are plenty of interests who would like the presence of US troops to influence the decision of how fast to pump, but there doesn't seem to be much of a credible threat that the US could make regarding any negative consequences to the Iraqi government if they do not pump as fast as the US would like.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 03:37:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But who in the US Government will admit that? Surely no one who wants to be SeriousTT, at least not for several more years.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 05:14:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... of ability and willingness to lie to the American public in the service of oil industry interests?

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 05:54:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
US troops actually slow investment, because as long as they are there there will be uncertainty as to the legitimacy of the legal framework for oil investments, and oil companies are unlikely to invest real money unless they are reasonably sure that the legal framework can last a couple dozen years - and that won't happen prior to the departure of the US troops as no government under them is legitimate.

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 06:41:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Which is another reason the "to be developed" portion of the graph is fantasy. Even if the US accelerates its draw-down of overseas troops, Iraq will be towards the end UNLESS the oil if flowing at an increasing rate and the Iraqis seem happy -- failing a serious collapse of US power or the even more remote possibility of a significant change in US politics. My guess is that we will leave Iraq only when the actual reserves, along with production, are seriously in decline or the US can no longer manage to pay for the occupation.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 10:11:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A swedish kind of death:
Almost like it was fixed so

Intelligent Design is proved true!

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 10:09:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Only if the intelligent designer intended population to remain constant, so that demand didn't go up...
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 10:15:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
However...



"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 11:02:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
this is overall demand. They are saying that there will be plenty of natgas coming online, and even a bit of renewables.

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 11:10:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So let's have this one:

Hydro included, the ROW is going to be doing a lot of renewables.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 11:34:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oil demand is still growing:



"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 11:59:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That too is overly optimistic, since we are now seeing in the US a coordinated effort on the right to resist demand destruction and to instead shackle all of us even more tightly to our vehicles. This proposal in Washington State is particularly insane, but also not surprising, since we are now in the opening stages of a war between those determined to preserve the forms and values of 20th century life against the effort to build a sustainable, stable 21st century prosperity.

Demand destruction will still happen, but it will take the form of more and more people being priced out of the ability to drive and given no alternatives, as we see a hardening of a two-tier society here in the US.

And the world will live as one

by Montereyan (robert at calitics dot com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 04:22:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So can we combine the two graphs? see if there's an energy gap looming or if production has just adjusted to  fit perceived demand?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 08:47:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
J, the plural of plateau is plateaux

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 09:21:27 AM EST
You know the French, they don't have a word for entrepreneur.

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 09:26:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is not the plural, this is the third person of the singular, as used by IEA :)

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 11:09:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Who can look at that chart and not see that they're cooking the numbers or playing with the ambiguity in the grammatical structure "to be found"? Namely, "this needs to be found" or "this is going to be found".

Are they forecasting or crying for help?

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 09:30:15 AM EST
Magic sparkly unicorn economics - we can't see it, we don't know where it is, but god the markets will provide it when we need it.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 10:09:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think it's vampires that are the magic sparkly things these days.  
by MarekNYC on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 10:15:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Especially squid-shaped ones.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 10:45:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Reminds me of that joke where a long physics equation is interrupted by the step, "then a miracle occurs".

The comment being "you might have to explain that step in greater detail"

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 10:51:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I have that cartoon on the walls of my cubicle. I also have a Wile E. Coyote...

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 07:41:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It is somewhat suspicious that those amounts to be developed or found just happen to provide a flat line graph of constant supply.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 07:59:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...is that they don't even try to pretend that existing fields plus those in magic pony land add up to increased production. Which they would do if the data gave them the feeblest leg to stand on. They are probably showing the most favourable 97.5%-ile of the estimated distribution of outcomes.

I'd love to be a fly on their wall.

by PIGL (stevec@boreal.gmail@com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 11:24:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You can call it an honest mistake in that they didn't try to hide their tracks. Though maybe it's just a feeling of impunity.

Had they put the "to be developed or found" on the top of the other quantities it would have been difficult to realise that the amount was just so that the total amount of crude oil is a constant.

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 04:05:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Getting the prices right, by phasing-out fossil-fuel subsidies, is the single most effective measure to cut energy demand

My bold.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 11:56:32 AM EST
Which, it should be noted, is IMF-speak for "poor people don't need to cook their food."

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 02:20:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
let them eat sushi.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 02:22:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Fossil-fuel subsidies are of course a wonderful way of indirectly helping the poor...
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 02:11:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, it's a shit way of helping the poor. But if you live in some third-world backwater, it may be the only way of helping the poor that your infrastructure and institutional system is able to actually make work.

If they mean phasing out subsidies for highway and airport construction, reinstating taxes on airline fuel, actually making oil companies liable for the full damages when their criminal negligence causes catastrophes and so on and so forth and etcetera, then I'd be cheering them on... But I somehow don't think that's what they mean. It rarely is when it's in a G20 memo.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 07:56:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
JakeS:
if you live in some third-world backwater

Do you have an actual concrete example of such a backwater where the government is subsidising fossil fuels in order to "help the poor"?

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 08:15:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Reasons can always be debated, as can definition of backwater, but if general subsidies of fuel is enough, I give you Sri Lanka:

Zimbabwe asked to stop money printing by IMF as Sri Lanka trail 1600:20 - LANKA BUSINESS ONLINE

In 2004 Sri Lanka jettisoned an IMF backed growth plan that brought 12-month inflation below 2 percent and exchange rate appreciation for the first time in decades, to return to money printing, fuel subsidies, power subsidies, heavy public sector recruitment and state intervention in agricultural markets including fertilizer subsidies.

I think there are many more examples of poor countries subsidising fuel as wella as other basic goods.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 08:43:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Indonesia in 1998 is the archetypal example of an IMF riot caused by a cessation of fuel subsidies. But there's also Ecuador in 2001. And that's just five seconds of Google; if I flipped through Globalization and its Discontents, I'd be able to recite a whole laundry list.

Of course, they aren't subsidising fuel for the poor any more...

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 01:14:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And here is the IMF 2 months ago approving of similar steps in Iran. Any riots will of course be described by the international press in approving terms, as they will be against Ahmaninajad.

Incidentally, the IMF article also gives a perfect justification for their work on nuclear energy, without actually saying so.

IMF Survey online: If Iran sold more oil and gas on international markets, would that generate a lot more revenue than if they sold it domestically?

Zytek: Yes. At such low prices, domestic demand for energy in Iran has grown very rapidly, and it is increasingly difficult to have energy resources available for export. With the price reform, you will dampen domestic demand, which means more efficient energy use domestically, more energy available for profitable exports, and higher revenues for the country.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 01:51:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
OK, I'm wrong, though I doubt the sincerity of the motivation - ie, it's fear of instability, not a desire to help the poor.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 03:47:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course. That's almost always the motivation for handouts to the poor. But that doesn't mean that taking them away is good policy, unless one belongs to a school of thought that believes in motivating the poor to either revolution or docile slavery by making their lives as miserable as humanly possible.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 03:52:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
JakeS:
a school of thought that believes in motivating the poor to either revolution or docile slavery by making their lives as miserable as humanly possible
You mean like neoliberals who advocate paying people less so thay will work more?

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 04:45:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
JakeS:
that doesn't mean that taking them away is good policy

Neither is leaving them in place. Good policy would be to replace them with something better (less poverty? other energy sources?).

And what share of global fossil fuel subsidies are we talking about here?

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 10:05:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Electrification for heat and cooking, mass transit for transport. Which also has lots of other good consequences.

But I guess the need to play games on the copper market will make that go even slower.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 12:04:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Russian natgas subsidies...

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 06:41:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
let's not forget how Gazprom saved millions of Russians from freezing by its efficient and ultra cheap provision of heat (and electricity) to everybody.

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 06:39:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Russia has so far to go until it is a true capitalist nation....

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 10:16:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Notice this fossil subsidy phase-out is exactly what's being handed to the G-20 leaders by the Green Jobs group.  Which G-20 member might have a hard time agreeing to such 5-year fade-out?

(Hint: it's the country which produced the forefather of Oil E. Coyote.)

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 02:51:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The rest of the world can do the right thing anyway.

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 04:08:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Essence of lousy Model Building.

Notice that:

  1.  A global financial crash is not factored in

  2.  Global Climate Change is not factored in

  3.  "Peak Water" is not factored in

  4.  The impact of #2 and #3 on food production is not factored in

  5.  The assumption of a jejune Supply/Demand model that ignores the ability to buy the stuff - see #1


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 12:12:06 PM EST
All of that is OF COURSE factored in, though not for public consumption. The actual discussions of the IEA and its funders are not available to


"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 02:58:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wow, your comment was cut just so you couldn't reveal publicly who the IEA's real discussions are not availa
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 03:18:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
i just   Bilder,     eye of pyramid,   try
out  theycant' ExxoShellaton  frackingas hurts

Please move along, CH is now doing fine, and will soon be posting the publicly available subsidy numbers as soon as his re-imprinting is finished.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 03:53:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]


"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char
by Melanchthon on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 12:27:59 PM EST
can I steal this? Please please please?
by PIGL (stevec@boreal.gmail@com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 11:25:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sure, provided you quote the author...

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char
by Melanchthon on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 03:55:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Jesus, that's just cartoon gold.

Why don't you submit it to some paper or other?

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 03:55:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe it can be redone with transparency so the yellow and purple lines extend to the right behind Oil E. Coyote?

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 04:21:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, I did it quick and dirty. I don't have the tools (or don't know how) to remove the white background on Wile E. Coyote's picture. I would welcome help for that.

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char
by Melanchthon on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 04:53:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In photoshop, use the magic wand tool to select white - with a tolerance of 1. Once selected the white area can be deleted.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 05:23:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I sent you a photoshop file with the white background removed ;-)


You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 05:30:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't have photoshop on my gear - can you output a png with the white replaced by transparent? I've got at least one tool that respects PNG transparent.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 12:01:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You might take a look at the GIMP.
by njh on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 05:11:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sent..

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 03:03:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It would be useful to retain the labels on the graph, otherwise it's not clear what the joke is about, and the serious point of the cartoon is lost.

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 06:06:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Available from me in a slightly higher res format on request. I'm limited by the resolution of Oily E, and can't find a higher res on de toobz.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 06:59:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Brilliant!

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 07:07:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks!

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char
by Melanchthon on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 07:11:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]


You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 07:24:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think it would have even more impact were the "to be developed or found" category were a much paler shade of blue -- like the northern sky at midday in an Arizona summer.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 10:19:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The garish top two bands are precisely in Coyote colour territory. The blues need changing to reds or browns. The 'to be found' area could also be a gradiented process yellow (darker at the bottom)

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 10:24:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Can we remove the thick blue line?

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 10:29:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We can, but it represent total oil.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 10:38:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I know, but it makes it look like a solid platform that Oil E. Coyote is running on, not thin air.

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 10:55:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Good point

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 01:45:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
However, there is not enough resolution in the original picture to pull out the line. The graph could be totally reconstructed as a vector file, but it would take a  little bit of time - that I don't have at the moment. But remind me over the weekend.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 01:59:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You might take a look at inkscape (and trace bitmap action). :)
by njh on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 11:49:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Can you just change the line colour to match the Natural gas liquids band?

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 12th, 2010 at 04:21:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If I can't isolate the line, then I can't change it.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sat Nov 13th, 2010 at 06:55:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't you have a colour fill opinion? As far as I can see, that black line is separate from other blacks (and even if it isn't, you could separate it by drawing a small separator line manually).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Nov 14th, 2010 at 02:41:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Or reduce the line weight to the thinnest available.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 12:05:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]


You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 10:37:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Loverly. Now just change the total crude oil line to sky blue to match the blue sky dreaming fantasy, and its perfect.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Nov 12th, 2010 at 08:55:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hi, CH here.  Most everything's ok now.  Renewables cost too much, even mature onshore wind. Had to get that off my chest.

Also, there's charts and shit in the IEA report about fossil subsidies, here's a wind energy take on it.

Windpower Monthly

Matter-of-factly bitching about fossil subsidies being 5x renewables (well, that's for 2009, so not really current), which include hydro and geothermal.

And of course, i'd like you to meet my elephant, Xternality. He likes quiet rooms and arguments with serious experts, but does get crashy when daylight enters the room.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 04:06:43 PM EST
And they only count direct subsidies, not indirect ones like road construction or military budgets.

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 04:49:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Genau.  and gopod forbid we even begin to include health cost effects.

Some analysts (tips the cap to afew) even go so far as "wondering" if there aren't positive, ahem, National Security Implications, to the further development of renewable energies.

And the founder of this site has even been known to claim that another advantage of renewables is long-term cost certainty, which in other financial analyses, is actually a valuable add-on.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 05:29:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Isn't there another advantage, that windfarms are incrementally scaleable? More turbines can be added in the future if financing is tight now.

Nuclear is only scaleable in very large steps, hydro the same, gas also (I presume the burning/generating plants are hard to add capacity to?). However, wavepower is probably incrementally scaleable.

I have not seen this argument before, but it seems to be a reasonable one. Or I may be way off the technology: perhaps offshore wind farms are limited by geology? Perhaps preparing the site infrastructure for future increments is too expensive?

You experts will know...

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 07:13:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You're right for nuclear, hydro and I think, coal. But adding another gas turbine to an existing power plant is probably not a lot costlier than adding a wind turbine to a wind farm.

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char
by Melanchthon on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 09:05:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
J, Did you cross-post this diary in the US?  I'm interested in seeing the orange reaction.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 02:28:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Add in a few of the comments from here and  I'm sure there'd be the odd aneurysm

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 07:41:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Then remembered I still had this diary open to read and I think it fits.

Oil will run out 90 years before alternatives are widely available, UC Davis study says | Technology | Los Angeles Times

The global oil supply is set to run dry 90 years before replacements such as renewable energy are ready to satisfy the same amount of demand, according to UC Davis researchers.

Current policies that set targets for batteries, hydrogen, biofuel and other alternative energy sources  won't be enough, a study published Monday says.

Deb Niemeir, a professor of civil and environmental engineering, and postdoctoral researcher Nataliya Malyshkina examined existing public companies dealing in non-oil fuels such as BlueFire Ethanol Inc. of Irvine and Enova Systems Inc. of Torrance.

The technologies in the market "may not be able to occupy a sufficient enough niche in the market by the time we need them to," Niemeir said in an e-mail. 



Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 08:02:14 PM EST
Another doom prediction ignoring the glowing mutant elephant in the room.

If the lights start going dim, what will happen is not the collapse of industrial society, but the collapse of the legal, economic and political barriers currently blocking great big dams and nuke plants. because while a quick-and-dirty nuke plant might not be as safe as could be desired, it will be a lot less fatal than trying to do without juice. The mortality rates of nations correlate very well with the reliability and potency of their electric grids, and that is not an accident

by Thomas on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 02:10:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How much additional hydro can be built?

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 02:36:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Mostly in "developing" nations.
Brazil is going gangbusters, but is running into limitations due to climate change (dams are less full than predicted), which makes them more difficult to build profitably.

India has huge potential that they are just getting round to planning for. Various backwaters in Africa, Southeast Asia and South America have a lot of potential in medium-sized projects.

I've no idea how much it all adds up to, perhaps I could do some research...

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 03:47:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's cute.

But "when the lights start going out," it's about ten years too late to start doing something about it.

Our civilisation is not so stable that it will be able to manage ten back-to-back years with non-existent to intermittent electricity without major disruption. And our construction technology is not so advanced that we can build a nuke plant overnight. Oh, and you won't have fuel for all those nuke plants, even if you can get them built.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 03:10:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
eh.. the thing is, the original, very primitive nuke plants got built in months, not years, and very cheaply per mwh.  Emergency solutions do not look anything like the EPR or the ap1000.

if the alternative is "freezing to death", lead cooled fast breeder designs ripped of soviet sub reactor  designs could be mass produced in factories, and "containment domes" could be redefined to "put it in the cellar". This would not be very sensible, of course, but the laws of physics do actually prevent it. And societies that are in trouble have a very long history of doing things that are not sensible and fixing the problems later.

by Thomas on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 04:14:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
to clarify: I am not advocating this - it is what I think will happen if we fuck up our long term energy supply planning. What I would actually like is an orderly transition to safe and reliable energy sources (EPRs, ap1000s, what hydro we can. desert solar if the price is right) with a long term plan that is more conservative of natural resources than light water reactors (ELSY, Astrid, IFR or whichever design turns out to be most economical)
by Thomas on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 04:24:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You have now joined the mainstream of American physicists, who never really thought there was another alternative...
by asdf on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 08:47:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
See, for example:

It appears that the future will bring large economic forces to start new orders for nuclear plants.

from "The nuclear power industry in the united states: Status and projections (1988)"

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B75KG-4K9JFYT-5&_user=10&_cover Date=01/31/1988&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=browse&_origin=browse&_sort=d&view=c &_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=5b91015ea319b1ce754da0 921e72d09e

by asdf on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 08:58:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
.. overprojecting, very badly! I am going to just flat out state that the odds of an automobile manufactured in 2025 being a gasoline burner are approximately nil.

If we are considering the use of oil on time horizons greater than a decade, the primary determinants will be the development of electrict automotion and other alternatives to the combustion engine, and the extent of demand for oil from the manufacturing and chemical industry.

The very basic facts of electric driving is that electricity costs a very small faction of what gasoline does per mile driven and that electric drive trains are in all ways superior to combution engines - less costly to manufacture, more reliable, and better preformance at varied RPM. - the edges combustion engines currently enjoy are the energy density of gasoline, and the speed with which a gas tank can be refilled. Both of which will most likely be eliminated by advances in electricity storage technology - and approximately two days after the invention of the gasoline-equivalent battery, all manufacturers of combustion engines will be bankrupt, and oil demand will freefall to the level comsumed by industry for plastics and such.  

This, is, in fact a good reason for oil producers to maintain high production levels in the present- current demand levels are an accident of the technology we use for personal mobility, and when that technology changes - and it will, the only question is the exact date- the demand will vanish, and the worth of the oil still in the ground after that date will decline very sharply.

by Thomas on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 04:22:14 AM EST
I am going to just flat out state that the odds of an automobile manufactured in 2025 being a gasoline burner are approximately nil.

Petrol to hydrogen to electricity

Volvo is taking its C30 DRIVe Electric concept to the next level and adding a hydrogen fuel cell to extend the EV's 94-mile range, creating a hybrid hydrogen-electric plug-in. The fuel cell will add another 155 miles of range, but what's really interesting is the way Volvo plans on sourcing the hydrogen: from gasoline.

Rather than relying on the promised hydrogen highway to be built, Volvo is exploring the use of an on-board reformer to process gasoline into hydrogen gas. The fuel cell will use the hydrogen gas to power the electric motor when the C30's 24kwh battery has been depleted, more than doubling the vehicle's range without increasing battery size.

Creating hydrogen from gasoline may sound a little like robbing Peter to pay Paul, but the conversion process is about 85 percent efficient

A rather convoluted techno-fix that adds up to doubling the mileage you get from the gas... but it's hard to get around the fact that petrol (or more precisely, diesel) is, and will remain for a while, the transport fuel of choice because it's so energy-dense and easy to handle (I don't expect to see widespread hydrogen infrastructure in my lifetime)

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 04:05:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't expect widespread hydrogen infrastructure ever, ammonia is just a much simpler way to transport and store hydrogen than H2.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Nov 12th, 2010 at 09:01:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
ammonia reformers? And how much do they cost?

It makes sense to me that there are a number of coherent ways of fuelling fuel cells, and that none of them involve tankers or pipelines of H2. I suppose the mindset comes from the fact that Big Energy needs Big Infrastructure; because how the heck can you make a dishonest buck with an anarchic decentralised heavily networked uncontrollable fuelling infrastructure?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Fri Nov 12th, 2010 at 03:51:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... Ammonia fuel network is direct ammonia fuel cells, of various designs.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sat Nov 13th, 2010 at 12:07:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
but it certainly looks like there are major physico-chemical barriers...

for the moment we are waiting for the then a miracle happens moment.

(Setting aside conspiracy theories... OK, the Lithium-Ion patent capture scam is a powerful narrative, but Lithium-Ion is too heavy and expensive to be the required breakthrough anyway)

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 04:09:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How about Dimethyl Ether liquid fuel from renewable electricity?

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 04:35:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Even if you make that near 100 %, you still lose about two thirds of what's left simply by putting it into a combustion engine.

And even besides that, a fleet of personal vehicles has horrid energy efficiency under every conceivable fuel infrastructure. Personal vehicles are useful for certain specialised transportation tasks, but they are atrociously inefficient for anything resembling bulk transportation of anything (commuters, cargo, anything).

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 08:44:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Unless you can use renewable-sourced Dimethyl Ether to produce hydrogen for fuel cells. Provided hte whole process is energy efficient.

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char
by Melanchthon on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 08:55:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, lugging around a half to a full ton of junk along with your freight (loading or self-loading) is a waste of energy no matter which energy regime you're operating in.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 09:02:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't understand your remark. If liquid Dimethyl Ether can be used instead of gasoline or diesel to produce hydrogen on an as-needed basis, as in the Volvo project you just have to carry liquid Dimethyl Ether.

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char
by Melanchthon on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 09:29:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think JakeS point is that trams, trains and buses are always more efficient then cars for mass transport, because they actually utilize that it is mass transport. Nothing in particular to do with the engine, it is the vehicle weight/passenger.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 09:44:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I was addressing the first part of his comment, where he discusses Migeru's suggestion about Dimethyl Ether, which can be used in mass transports, too.

I certainly agree about (electric) buses, trams and trains being the rational solution. I think a society based on individual ownership of a car is definitely unsustainable. Actually, I chose not to own a car and I use public transports instead.

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 10:24:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Can't always have large-scale centralised modes of transportation. You need small-scale decentralised ones as well. The latter route actually makes far more sense from a transportation perspective than from a power generation perspective.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 06:45:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course you'll always need small-scale decentralised transportation options. But only for small-scale, decentralised tasks.

Off the top of my head, I can think of three good reasons to regularly drive a personal vehicle:

  1. You are a cripple, crone or infant who is physically unable to walk or ride a bicycle to the nearest bus stop.

  2. You have to transport goods that are too bulky and/or heavy to fit comfortably in a wheelbarrow or a bicycle trailer. This is most commonly the case for craftsmen and people who are moving furniture - very few everyday non-work related tasks qualify.

  3. You live in an area of insufficient population density to support a viable mass transit system.

The vast majority of trips are simply not efficiently done with cars. Not even if those cars ran on magic pony piss, since they'd still be noisy, they'd still take up space and they'd still kill people.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 07:08:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And part of these needs can be met by shared cars/vans/trucks systems like AUTOLIB'.

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char
by Melanchthon on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 08:17:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Probably, yes. But right now I'm gunning for the low hanging fruit. The argument that cars are overused does not hinge on whether carpooling is a fruitful endeavour or not.

After all, it is not impossible to imagine that the reason carpooling works at the moment is that our present automobile fleet provides ridiculously excessive capacity. If the only people who had cars were the ones who actually needed them, there might not be enough slack in terms of cargo capacity and passenger space to enable carpooling, unless you deliberately designed your city planning and business practises around it. Which may or may not be worth the bother.

Now, I do think that carpooling will be worthwhile, even in a low-car infrastructure. But unlike cornucopians, like Julian "copper can be made from other metals" Simon, I like to accompany my policy recommendations with some back-of-the-envelope arithmetic showing that I'm at least in the right ballpark. And I just don't have the information to do that on carpooling.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 09:51:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... place during the transition, vehicles to support that existing carpooling will be among the "essential needs" for private transport vehicles.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Nov 12th, 2010 at 09:04:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes. But the whole thing is heavily path-dependent. If we start applying the full power of modern industrial society towards building rail, then we could easily transition to a low-car infrastructure in a short enough time frame that self-organised carpools won't have time to show up.

Of course, we could make it a matter of policy to organise and incentivise carpooling during the transition. Which is an excellent idea, but not required for the transition to work.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Nov 12th, 2010 at 10:40:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... it was a short-hand for organized systems backed up by cellphone/internet front ends, as opposed to self-organized carpools.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Nov 12th, 2010 at 04:38:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, thanks to eurogreen, I've got an answer to my question:

Volvo Plans Hydrogen Generators for Boats Kiss Diesel and Gas | FuelCellsWorks

Powercell has developed a Fuel Processor, protected by patents, which converts, ethanol, biogas, DME, methanol, propane standard grade diesel or gasoline into hydrogen used to fuel the fuel cell system.
...
The generator from Powercell is superior to existing automotive and marine APU (auxiliary power unit) based generators with respect to emission, noise, cycle efficiency, size and weight. Main characteristics are: - Emission levels - generates electricity with zero emissions of CO, NOx and particulates. - High fuel efficiency and reliability, with a lighter and smaller system. - Fuel flexibility - diesel, ethanol, biogas, DME, methanol, propane, gasoline and others - Increased customer comfort level - reduced noise, smell and emission levels.


"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char
by Melanchthon on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 02:43:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... the fuel cells. Since existing battery electric is already workable for the vast majority of ranges of actual private transport vehicle needs, which are local in character ...

... and the majority of transport tasks where it is not suited are not efficiently done by private transport vehicles anyway ...

... would the most effective private transport vehicle be a local range battery electric, with range augmentation in the form of a hydrogen, ammonia or direct carbon fuel cell?

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Nov 12th, 2010 at 09:09:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thomas:
approximately two days after the invention of the gasoline-equivalent battery, all manufacturers of combustion engines will be bankrupt, and oil demand will freefall to the level comsumed by industry for plastics and such.

Yeah, because the battery / electric car manufacturing capacity will be built overnight worldwide, as well as the electricity distribution infrastructure for charging these batteries . And all the world's car owners will buy a brand new electric car within a week, too...

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 07:31:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Recently in Sweden, there was i article in Ny Teknik - which is a weakly engineering newspaper - about enthusiasts who had bought used Citroën electric cars. Apparently you can buy the car, but the battery is on lease, and as in some cases the previous owners had violated the terms of the lease agreement by not servicing their cars regularly, the batteries were demanded back.

Somehow, I do not think this is the only problem there will be in a transition to electric cars.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 08:16:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And these delays will preserve the solvency of the combustion engine manufacturers, how, exactly?
Once an industry has obviously joined the ranks of the buggy whip manufacturers, capital crowds the exits and the remaining players end up running down under court administration to discharge as much as possible of their debts. Of course, a lot of these firms are subsidiaries of automakers that will be enjoying the sales boom of the century as people replace their gas gusslers with electron ditto*, so the wind down should be somewhat more graceful than usual.

*and then sales will completely crash and burn 5 years later when the world catches on that electric engines last more or less forever

by Thomas on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 12:08:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
However, the key to the future of the car as anything other than a privilege of the rich (much like horse-drawn carriages were), has to be a drastic shedding of weight.

As Jake points out, lugging around a ton of scrap metal everywhere you go is completely nuts, we can not afford the energy for that. Get it down to 300kg for a small family car, and we're perhaps back in business.

Over recent decades, cars have only got bigger and heavier. Safety regulations are a major factor, and need to be rethunk. I suspect that the major car manufacturers may be unable to make the transition, and will crash and burn, to be replaced by new players.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 04:28:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
eh, this is actually not nessesarily true - Ligher cars would very strongly reduce the minium quality of batteries needed to give good preformance, but the supply of electricity is not a limit on how big cars we could use under an all-electric paradigm, because the total size of our electricity infrastructure will be at a minimum big enough to service average daytime comsumption, and there are no current zero-carbon solutions to that problem that do not end up also producing quite ridiculusly large surpluses of electricity at night. If your grid is all-nuclear, the marginal cost of running the reactors at full throttle at night as well as during the day is near zero, and a wind, wave, geothermal grid would by nessesity be overbuilt to a degree that would invariably result in very large amounts of spare electricity at night. which means that if you have a battery that can keep a 3 tonne limo going from dawn till dusk, everyone could drive one with a clean concience as far as fuel consumption goes (less so as far as embodied energy goes.. but then again, if the electricity supply is clean, aluminum bodywork suddenly has fuck-all enviormental footprint.)
by Thomas on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 05:58:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wake me up when we're there, Thomas.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 06:40:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
doesnt have to be free, just cheaper than gas. and gas costs a tonne.
by Thomas on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 06:56:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe you could waste all that lovely electricity by lugging around scrap metal encasing self-loading bulk freight. But you'll want to use that night time energy to synthesise phosphates, thus displacing non-renewable sources of phosphates that are currently being depleted at a rate that would have them gone completely within the forecastable future.

Personalised transportation is optional. Synthetic fertiliser is not.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 06:57:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thomas:
if the electricity supply is clean, aluminum bodywork suddenly has fuck-all enviormental footprint.)

wasn't that red toxic mud catastrophe in hungary the other day the waste from alumimium production?

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 07:09:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thomas:
everyone could drive one with a clean conscience

It would still be a stupid waste of energy, raw materials and work compared to mass transportation. And there would be even more traffic jams in big cities, wasting time and space and creating stress.

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 08:26:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is now a good time to bring up my mass produced 900 kg all-aluminum car, with its 3.2 l/100 km demonstrated real-world fuel economy? Or the idea of short range battery-electric cars with traction power (like trolley buses) once you're out of your neighborhood? Or, bicycle paths in tunnels so they're not so miserable in the rain and snow?

There are lots of ways to skin the transportation cat.

by asdf on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 09:05:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That cute little notch leading to gentle uplands.  Starting from when? Well now, natch!

I never thought graphs could be comical in themselves.

by Pope Epopt on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 08:24:35 AM EST
Looking for a picture for someone tonight, I came across some old graphs that I'd knocked together for a diary on here made from an earlier version of the same data,taking out one of the lines that had been drawn however I only have to altered ones not the original, direct from IEA ones and was wondering how the old graphs compare to the current ones. (but for that of course we'd need the originals



Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 08:13:59 PM EST
So if anyone can remember what diary it was , would be handy

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 08:16:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Comparing the two graphs makes the manipulation even more blatant.

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 04:43:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The difference between the two graphs is the "yet to be found" resources, which would have to amount to around 20 mb/d in 2030...

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char
by Melanchthon on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 07:23:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I know the full graphs were originally in the guardian. But im not sure when and i dont know what slice i extracted to produce the version i posted. It might be that that slice was the yet to be discovered bit. They would be at least a year ago and they may well have been expexting us to forget theyd already produced this graph.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 09:19:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What more can you remember about the diary? Did you write it? If not, do you remember who did?

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 09:46:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well the guardian article from last year was this one

Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblower | Environment | The Guardian

The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.

The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.



Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 10:17:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
and the related diary was this one

European Tribune - The Peak Oil Whistle

This morning I woke up, went shaving and then jumped for a quick shower as usual; at 7 o'clock I tunned the radio from Radio France to the local news radio in time for the first morning program. One of the opening news-bits seemed to have been edited by one of my colleagues at TheOilDrum.


Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 10:21:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So this was the original:

Migeru:

This is the IEA's own projections:

(Really a comment that fits under the comment were ceebs found the diary, but pictures best goes as pretty high level in order not disrupt the layout for those showing threaded comments.)

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 12:26:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I've not split out just the pink slice, but looking at it, doesn't it show an accelerating rate of oil discoveries?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 12:44:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I already said back then:
I'd say "fields yet to be found" looks completely massaged to me.


Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 12:54:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes it does. We'll need to find more, so we will. Isn't that basic economics?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 01:01:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
no, an accelerating rate of oil discoveries would produce a curve or "trumphet" in the graph- the widening is the compounding of production from new discoveries from year to year. (assume one new well per year - year four will have four times the production from "new" wells. that doesnt mean four wells were discovered in year four.
by Thomas on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 03:25:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I thought that a slightly curved shape in the old graph was what I was seeing

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 05:00:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Okay, so I have only a rudimentary understanding of economics, but I was under the impression that if you have a supply curve and a demand curve at a given point in time, you can combine them to find the market price. But in this case, I see something different: a supply curve (of a different sort, with time as the independent variable) and a demand curve (ditto), with no mention of price.

These apparently are the result of a calculation or model where the underlying supply versus price and demand versus cost curves have been overlaid to find the market price, repeated over multiple years. Then, the market price was applied to the demand curve and to the supply curve for that year to find the actual demand and supply as shown on these graphs of supply vs. time and demand vs. time.

Right?

If so, where is that price curve?

by asdf on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 10:01:39 AM EST
You're asking inconvenient questions. See my Socratic Economics V: Supply and Demand
In that little diagram, the "equilibrium" or crossing point is observed, namely a (price, volume) point. The rest of the diagram is counterfactual. I suspect people are using consumption as a proxy for demand and production as a proxy for supply. The difference between consumption and production is the change in inventory. But ignoring that difference for a minute, consumption is just the demand at the "equilibrium" point. Nobody is counting all the times someone goes and says "gee, I want to buy some more of this but it's too expensive" or "gee, I wanted to buy some more of this but the shelves were empty" and so the demand curve is unobserved (unobservable?). Similarly with the supply curve.

Does one have to look at the order book at a commodities exchange (or the open interests in futures) to get supply and demand curves for oil?

And, of course, if the supply and demand curves are counterfactual it is going to be rather hard to measure their slopes (the "price elasticity" of supply and demand).

Not that I claim that diary or the comments has an answer - all I'm suggesting is that the concepts are nonsense. the IEA is representing production, not a supply curve as a function of time. And they're, of course, assuming a particular level of satisfied demand.

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 10:53:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, I see your previous post--and my clever comment! My point, regardless of whether the curves of supply/production or demand/consumption are theoretically  or practically correct, is that there is an assumed price for oil in, say, 2020, that is not exposed in Jerome's chart.

Who cares if there is plenty of oil to be burned if it costs $1000 per barrel? Who cares if I am forced to turn off my furnace and never travel? I'm sure that the millionaires in China will be driving around in their Buicks.

General Motors says it has become the first global automaker to sell 2 million vehicles in China in a single year.But the bigger news is GM is on track to sell more cars in China than in the U.S. this year.

Through October, GM has sold 1.8 million vehicles in the U.S.October sales of Shanghai GM's Buick brand jumped 35.7% on an annual basis to 54,490 units. Demand for both the new LaCrosse sedan, seen in that photo above, and the smaller Excelle, known as the Regal in the U.S., rose more than 40% year on year.

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/driveon/post/2010/11/gm-general-motors-china-buick-lacrosse- regal/1

by asdf on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 01:22:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
in that graph. It relates to the "discovered, but yet to be developed" component. This stuff (most of it) would never be developed if the price were not high enough, because it's too expensive to extract, or was until recently.

That's another significant element of the equation. If oil is $100 a barrel, then it's worthwhile spending $80 to extract the difficult stuff. But it's not a fundamentally very productive endeavour. In fact, it's a matter of pouring more and more resources (skills, machinery, energy etc) into a vanishing resource. Not a very smart strategy.

This is what they mean when they say that the market will provide if the price is right. Though I think that they are materially wrong on that. Canada has the world's second biggest hydrocarbon reserves. But they just can't seem to ramp up production the way the economists predicted. It's just too hard.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 05:31:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Light blue is the color justifying full scale arctic oil exploitation. This is indeed good news, especially for the owners of all those recently built super ice class exploration/seimsic ships. Plus no one lives up there so no need to worry about the environment.
by Jace on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 11:34:16 AM EST
some of my best friends are plankton.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 03:22:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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