Now, detailed analysis of an opinion poll published during the week, and seen by the Sunday Independent, has highlighted the distinct possibility that Labour and Sinn Fein could form a new government with the support of a majority -- but not necessarily all -- of up to 15 independent TDs.

According to the Red C poll in the Irish Sun, Labour (24 per cent), Sinn Fein (16 per cent), and independents (11 per cent), were on a combined total of 51 per cent.

An analysis by the Political Studies Association of Ireland (PSAI) translates those percentages into Dail seats as follows: Labour 48, Sinn Fein 24, independents 15.

Its analysis points out that the independent TDs are likely to include prominent left-wing candidates, such as Joe Higgins of the Socialist Party and Richard Boyd Barrett of People Before Profit, as well as several others on the hard left.

If all of the independents were to back a Labour-Sinn Fein coalition, then a clear majority of up to 87 seats would be in place, comfortably more than the 83 required to form a government..

Firstly, the analysis was not by the PSAI, but by Adrian Kavanagh, a poster (not an editor) on their website which explicitly states that the views of their contributors are their own and should not be attributed to the PSAI. Since when are mere bloggers worthy of front page attention?

Secondly, it was anything but a detailed analysis, but simply applied the average national party vote swing percentages in the Red C poll to the actual vote patterns in the 2007 election in each of the 43 constituencies which actually elect TDs (member's of the Irish Parliament.

As I pointed out at considerable length in Ruling Party Melt-down and the End of the EU project in Ireland, this ignores all sorts of regional variations, local factors, and the intricacies of the Irish multi-seat single transferable vote system of election.  It is simply not possible to add up the aggregate votes received by Labour, Sinn Fein, and a wide assortment of Independents at a National level (24+16+11=51%) and conclude form this that they must win an overall majority of seats.  

Ireland does not operate a list system, voters vote for candidates, not parties, and their lower preference votes (not measured by this opinion poll) generally determine the destination of at least the last seat in a constituency.

I went into such considerable detail in my last story precisely to pre-empt people from coming to such a simplistic conclusion. Perhaps the Sunday Independent political correspondent, Jody Corcoran, should have read my piece first.  

On the other hand, perhaps, not.  He knows those intricacies well enough but chose to ignore them because he has other fish to fry...  So what is his, and the Independent's agenda? Some more rope please...

SF swing can make Gilmore Taoiseach - National News, Frontpage - Independent.ie

Labour leader Eamon Gilmore has ruled out coalition with Sinn Fein, but the party's finance spokeswoman Joan Burton has been somewhat more equivocal.

However, the prospect of Mr Gilmore as Taoiseach may prove a huge incentive for Labour to enter government with Sinn Fein.

It is now clear that the arrival of the EU-IMF last month -- and the perceived dilution of national sovereignty resulting from that -- is fuelling a radical rethink among the electorate.

Labour and Sinn Fein have been most strident in their opposition to the terms of the €85bn 'bailout' arrangement negotiated by representatives of the Government.

In the Dail last week, Mr Gilmore declared that his party would not be bound by the EU-IMF deal and would seek to renegotiate it.

Labour opposes the entire premise of the agreement that there must be €6bn in cuts and savings next year.

Sinn Fein, meanwhile, has been even more critical and has said that it would default on part or all of the debt.

This stance is supported by the hard left.

Let us ignore, for the moment, that many people do not regard the Labour Party as being particularly leftist (unless you are on the hard core right of Fine Gael...) Let us also ignore, for the moment, that very few Independents, apart from Joe Higgins of the Socialist Party and Richard Boyd Barrett, could be regarded as even approaching left, never mind hard left, and thus unlikely to support the Sinn Fein proposal.

What Jody Corcoran is worried about, is that such "leftist" policies may actually be gaining popular support:  More rope please...

The view of several policymakers and economic commentators that the EU-IMF deal has placed an unsustainable debt burden on Irish citizens seems to be persuading voters to look again at an alternative left-wing government, including Sinn Fein.

According to a Sunday Independent/Quantum Res-earch poll today, 61 per cent majority believe the EU-IMF deal is not a good one for the country; that 71 per cent believe the Dail should be given an opportunity to vote on it and that 54 per cent do not believe the next Government should be bound by it.

It has also found that a 58 per cent majority believe the Government should default on all or part of the debt.

So Fine Gael is in huge danger of being outflanked not just on the left but by mainstream public sentiment.  This shift in mainstream sentiment is being fuelled by all sorts of abuses by the elite which are not going unnoticed by the great unwashed...

Reports last week that the Minister for Justice Dermot Ahern, 55, was to receive a 'golden handshake' of €325,000 and an annual pension of more than €100,000 have added to an already huge sense of anger and frustration among the public.

Furthermore, reports that Allied Irish Bank paid out almost €60m on bonuses over the past two years, including €3.4m to key staff this year, are deepening a general sense of injustice.

In a populist move, Mr Gilmore has promised in Labour's pre-budget submission to cap the salary of the Taoiseach at €190,000 and to reduce ministerial salaries by 17 per cent.

However, there are major differences between the pre-budget submissions of Fine Gael and Labour.

Fine Gael has accepted the need for the €6bn adjustment, as agreed with the EU and the IMF, with €15bn to be found mostly in reduced spending over four years.

By contrast, Labour wants an adjustment of just €4.5bn, with the savings made up equally between cuts and taxes.

It has pledged to renegotiate the terms of the EU-IMF rescue package.

Since the 1940's, Fine Gael has almost always been able to rely on Labour to prop up Fine Gael Governments which have never been able to achieve majorities on their own.  Now, for the first time, it looks like a credible alternative for Labour may be emerging: no longer must Labour act as the junior partner in a Fine Gael led Coalition, it actually has some prospect of ruling as the lead party in coalition with Sinn Fein and Independents.

So why highlight this possibility when it is exactly what you don't want to see happen? I suspect the Independent Editorial Strategy is to scare the electorate into going back into the familiar arms of Fine Gael by raising the spectre of a Labour alliance with Sinn fein - for so long the bogey men of Irish - and particularly Fine Gael - mainstream politics.

Nothing will bring the Fine Gael vote out more than the prospect of defeating Fianna Fail, and even more so the prospect of heading off the possibility of a Labour/Sinn Fein alliance.  Labour has to be brought to heal, and fast.  Already there are dangerous divergences between Fine Gael and Labour budgetary strategies which could make cooperation during the campaign and negotiation of a coalition agreement difficult.

The Independent (Fine Gael) tactic appears to be:

1. To raise the "red scare" amongst the electorate, and particularly amongst conservative or centrist voters who might still have been shy about turning out for Fine Gael

2. Drive a wedge between Labour and Sinn Fein, to make it impossible for them to agree a common programme.

3. Alert the electorate to the dangers of voting Independent - even if many of the independents are local activists with not much of a national agenda or ideological bent.

However what the Independent appears to have realised is that there is now a sea change in public attitudes, which means that the tweedle dum and tweedle dee conservative policies of rival Fianna Fail and Fine Gael led Governments may no longer satisfy public anger and demands for change.

A Labour led Government is their greatest nightmare which must be headed off at all costs.  Fine Gael has no prospect of forming a Government without Labour as a Junior partner. (Fine Gael has nowhere near enough votes to form a Government on its own, and Fianna Fail is simply too toxic for anyone to coalesce with right now).  Thus if a Labour led Government comes to be seen as a credible possibility, a vote for Fine Gael becomes somewhat redundant.

Take a bow, Adrian Kavanagh. Your back of an envelope first cut mechanical analysis of the likely impact of current voting intentions on seat numbers - which never pretended to be anything else - has just been elevated to the status of Authoritative Prediction by an academic body on the front page of the Independent. It's time to scare the horses. Now I wonder if you wrote a follow up piece taking local and lower preference voting factors into account would your story receive similar prominence?