The Public Credit

by ChrisCook
Tue Feb 2nd, 2010 at 07:41:43 PM EST

Cross Posted from Labour List Cameron's removal of the transfusion of public credit could kill the patient

A recent article in 'Asia Times' by Henry Liu China in Treasuries Cul de Sac crystallised the almighty misconception at the heart of the conventional monetarist economics which has driven Western economies generally, and the US and UK economies in particular, onto the rocks.

As Liu points out, there is a fundamental difference between credit and debt - the one being essentially the mirror image of the other.


In the language of finance economics, credit and debt are opposites but not identical. In fact, credit and debt operate in reverse relations.

Credit requires a positive net worth and debt does not. One can have good credit and no debt. High debt lowers credit rating.

When one understands credit, one understands the main force behind the modern finance economy, which is driven by credit and stalled by debt.

So a creditworthy business may take on debt - say from a bank - or be given time to pay for goods and services supplied on credit terms by a trade seller. He essentially does both by issuing his IOU - based upon his credit - in exchange for value received.

If a trade seller is in turn able to take a buyer's IOU and have it accepted by another seller in exchange for value, then an embryonic monetary system is in place, and such credit clearing is exemplified by the Swiss business-to-business WIR credit clearing union which has been in operation since 1934.

Sovereign Credit
The sovereign credit of UK Plc is backed by tax income and denominated in sterling: but what IS one pound sterling? Time was when it was a note redeemable in a specified amount of gold when presented in payment to the Bank of England. Now all you get when you present a ten pound note to the BoE is...errr...another ten pound note. As Liu puts it....

Monetary economists view government-issued money as a sovereign debt instrument with zero maturity, historically derived from the bill of exchange in free banking. This view is valid only for specie money, which is a debt certificate that can claim on demand a prescribed amount of gold or other specie of intrinsic value. But fiat money issued by a sovereign government is not a sovereign debt but a sovereign credit instrument.

So the general perception that when a government creates undated interest-free credit in the form of   notes and coin it is getting into debt is not actually true. A moment's thought concerning bank-notes confirms this - when the Bank of England consigns a few million in grubby bank-notes to be shredded and burnt at Debden this does not affect UK Plc's real financial position in the slightest.

Moreover - and to debunk a canard of the accepted strain of Voodoo monetary economics - merely printing money is not inflationary in the slightest if that undated credit sits in a bank vault as paper IOUs or in an accounting ledger as a virtual IOU. In order to be inflationary, money has to be spent, or lent, and this is as true of book entry credits as it is to paper credits.

QE or not QE?
The Bank of England programme of Quantitative Easing (QE) consists of the creation of the virtual equivalent of bank-notes. The BoE has created some £200bn of undated sovereign credit - NOT debt, as Liu points out - and has used this new money to acquire dated Treasury debt (gilts) from investors.

As a result some £200bn of new deposits are created which banks hold as excess reserves with the Bank of England and in respect of which they receive 0.5% pa. To all intents and purposes this is analogous to the banks generally being paid 0.5% as a storage fee for holding £200bn in notes and coin - the effect is exactly the same.

Now, the investors who sold £200bn of gilts to the BoE did not rush out and spend the proceeds in the shops, potentially causing inflation. They typically used the proceeds to buy some other financial asset thereby creating the current bubble in shares, commodities and much else.

The effect of QE has been to artificially raise the price of gilts (and lower the yield), and if and when these gilts are sold by the BoE, the price will collapse and a huge loss - estimated at over £10bn at the moment - will be made.  

In order for that loss to be crystallised, of course, £200bn in existing money will disappear out of the system when the gilts are purchased, and the QE credit entry is cancelled. That credit could only be replaced by £200bn of new private bank credit: therefore it will not be happening any time soon, if ever.

In the meantime, the BoE has received £4.4bn in income from the Treasury in respect of the gilts it bought and holds. The net effect of QE for the Treasury - because it chooses to pay 0.5% on reserve balances - is therefore of a £200bn 0.5% overdraft from the banks, received via the BoE as agent.

Public Credit
The myth propagated by Voodoo economists - because of their misunderstanding of the nature of  money as credit - is that 'printing' money QE style is inflationary of retail prices. This would only be the case if - in a Bernanke-style 'helicopter drop' - hundreds of billions of pounds were distributed to the population, and even then only to the extent that the recipients chose not to repay their mortgages and other debts, or save their windfall by investing it.

Another myth - and I have seen a letter from a Treasury minister stating this as fact - is that the creation of public credit is inherently inflationary: whereas the  creation by banks of the same amount of private credit with the additional cost of a profit to shareholders is not inflationary. This is of course complete nonsense: it is the quantity, not the provenance, of credit/money which may potentially be inflationary if money is created and spent into the economy.

As Liu goes on to say, it is in fact one of a government's principal roles to create the credit necessary for the circulation of goods and services and the creation of productive assets in private or public ownership. This is even more the case if, as now, banks are unwilling or unable to do so, because of a systemic shortage of capital.

Within the conventional system the solution to our current problems would be for massive public and private spending to create new productive assets - such as affordable housing; renewable energy and energy savings, and public infrastructure - to be funded by the creation of interest-free, but not cost-free, public credit.

The creation of such productive assets would directly and indirectly create new tax flows and use value backing the credit created to produce them. The process may be managed by banks as service providers, not as intermediaries, on a cost plus performance fee basis.

As anyone who has read my previous posts  may appreciate, I believe that credit creation by intermediaries - whether of undated interest-free public credit by Central Banks or Treasuries, or dated interest-bearing private credit by banks - is actually unnecessary in a world of direct instantaneous 'Peer to Peer' connections, but that is another story.

In the meantime, the Treasury has inadvertently stumbled upon a temporary solution to the credit crunch, and for as long as this QE transfusion continues the patient will survive. The removal of this transfusion of public credit - and the application of leeches prescribed by Doctor Cameron - will in all likelihood kill the patient.

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Another important quotation by Liu:
Government levies taxes not to finance its operations, but to give value to its fiat money as sovereign credit instruments. If it chooses to, government can finance its operation entirely through user fees, as some fiscal conservatives suggest. A government does not need to be indebted to the public. It creates a government debt component to provide a benchmark interest rate to anchor the private debt market, not because it needs money. Technically, a sovereign government need never borrow. It can issue tax credit in the form of fiat money to meet all its liabilities. And only a sovereign government can issue fiat money as sovereign credit.

If fiat money is not sovereign debt, then the entire conceptual structure of finance capitalism is subject to reordering, just as physics was subject to reordering when man's worldview changed with the realization that the earth is not stationary nor is it the center of the universe. The need for capital formation to finance socially useful development will be exposed as a cruel hoax, as sovereign credit can finance all socially useful development without problem. Private savings are not necessary to finance public socio-economic development, since private savings are not required for the supply of sovereign credit. Thus the relationship between the national private savings rate and public finance is at best indirect.

Sovereign credit can finance an economy in which unemployment is unknown, with wages constantly rising to provide consumer buying power to prevent production overcapacity. A vibrant economy is one in which there is persistent labor shortages that push up wages to reduce overcapacity. Private savings are needed only for private investment that has no intrinsic social purpose or value. Savings without full employment are deflationary, as savings reduces current consumption to provide investment to increase future supply, which is not needed in an economy with overcapacity created by lack of demand, which in turn has been created by low wages and unemployment.

More importantly, with a hat tip to Hyman Minsky, sovereign credit can be used to fund a job guarantee programme so that nobody has to be involuntarily unemployed - if someone wants a job at the minimum wage they go to a government employment office and they get that job, paid for by fiat money. If the jobs the government funds in this way are productive, this fiat money is not inflationary. But any job is less inflationary than an unemployment subsidy. (I'm leaving disability, and old age pensions, child benefits, and so on out of this "subsidy" category).

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 3rd, 2010 at 08:09:00 AM EST
Migeru:
Sovereign credit can finance an economy in which unemployment is unknown, with wages constantly rising to provide consumer buying power to prevent production overcapacity.

With forever increasing production on our unlimited planet...

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Feb 3rd, 2010 at 06:12:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Increasing production of renewables might not be a bad thing.

Modern conservatives engage in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy: the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.Galbraith
by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Wed Feb 3rd, 2010 at 07:10:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... production of renewables is evidently a bad thing. Constantly, incessantly increasing production of any thing, and any thing-consuming service, is evidently a bad thing.

Its perhaps a bit of a shell game to respond to someone pointing out that the picture in "with wages constantly rising to provide consumer buying power to prevent production overcapacity" is physically infeasible by pointing to what is a need to increase the share of renewables in production.

Utsukushikereba sore de ii

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Feb 4th, 2010 at 12:47:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well-spotted. There are some incoherences in what Liu writes because he's an empty-world economist still married to the post-WWII productivist/consumerist model, and to GDP.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 4th, 2010 at 02:21:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Absolutely.

Liu sees the monolithic corporate State as part of the solution, rather than as a twin of the monolithic Corporates operating for shareholder profit, and both suffering from the curse of managerialism

But then he's not unique in seeing the State in that light.

Modern conservatives engage in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy: the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.Galbraith

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Thu Feb 4th, 2010 at 07:11:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
With forever increasing production on our unlimited planet...

Not necessary. With equal income distribution, when people earn more, they work less and produce less..

by kjr63 on Thu Feb 4th, 2010 at 07:16:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
More insight from Liu
When a sovereign state issues money as legal tender, it issues a monetary instrument backed by its sovereign rights, which includes taxation. A sovereign state never owes domestic debts except by design voluntarily. When a sovereign state borrows in order to avoid levying or raising taxes, it is a political expedience, not a financial necessity. When a sovereign state borrows, through the selling of sovereign bonds denominated in its own currency, it is withdrawing previously issued sovereign credit from the financial system. When a sovereign state borrows foreign currency, it forfeits its sovereign credit privilege and reduces itself to an ordinary debtor because no sovereign state can issue foreign currency.

Dollar hegemony prevents all states beside the US from financing their domestic development with sovereign credit.

Government bonds act as absorbers of sovereign credit from the private sector. US government bonds, through dollar hegemony, enjoy the highest credit rating, topping a credit risk pyramid in international sovereign and institutional debt markets. Dollar hegemony is a geopolitical phenomenon in which the US dollar, a fiat currency, assumes the status of primary reserve currency in the international finance architecture.

(My emphasis)

This explains how the US$ can go up on bad US economic data - skittish investors get their money out of whatever and put it into US treasuries. If this includes divesting from non-US$-denominated assets, the US$ goes up.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 5th, 2010 at 10:14:27 AM EST
Inflation is due primarily to oligopolistic control of the means of production. It, of course, is more potent when government is captured by the oligopolists.

Other than that, the Liu article is one of the most insightful pieces to be found outside of some blogs. Unfortunately for us, large segments of elite-college graduates are aware of both these facts and the means of manipulating them.

paul spencer

by paul spencer (spencerinthegorge AT yahoo DOT com) on Fri Feb 5th, 2010 at 02:52:35 PM EST
Unfortunately for us, large segments of elite-college graduates are aware of both these facts and the means of manipulating them.

For some reason I hold on to the delusion that miseducation in an incorrect theory (in this case economics) cannot possibly be an advantage...

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 5th, 2010 at 02:54:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
you are correct. To define my "term" - I'm thinking "long-term" in the current situation means less than 10 years.

Meantime, they have been proven to be capable of severe damage to most of us - more than once, I might add.

paul spencer

by paul spencer (spencerinthegorge AT yahoo DOT com) on Fri Feb 5th, 2010 at 03:48:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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