French Regional Elections

by Sassafras
Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 02:10:11 PM EST

France24: Voting begins in regional elections

France voted Sunday in regional polls forecast to punish Nicolas Sarkozy's ruling party, the last ballot-box test of his popularity ahead of the 2012 presidential election. Voters struggling from the global economic slowdown are expected to give the governing UMP party a drubbing at the polls during the two-round vote on Sunday and March 21.


The Socialists currently control 20 of France's 22 regions on the mainland plus Corsica, along with the four councils in overseas territories. Polls suggest the Socialists could even score what their leader Martine Aubry has called "a grand slam" -- taking all 26 regions. Pollsters predicted a record low turnout, reflecting a loss of faith in French politicians' ability to ease the lingering pain of the 2008-2009 crisis. The interior ministry said that overall turnout was just over 16 percent at around midday.
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Twitter #regionales: exit poll reports UMP and PS neck and neck with 29% each of the vote.
by Sassafras on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 02:08:07 PM EST
Participation is not high, apparently. Perhaps the PS victory has been so often stated that it's brought out the UMP vote and encouraged PS voters to stay home.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 02:23:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
is estimated to be at a record low, with 48% only voting, vs 61% in the first ound of the same elections in 2004.

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 02:36:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Checking the more recent polls, that would not be a surprising result, if confirmed.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 02:34:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One should remember there are two rounds of voting. Only lists having scored at least 10% in the first round may line up for the second (and they may make deals with bigger lists before that). So Round Two sees a decider between the big lists.

This is where the left has overall more resources than the right. Europe Ecologie is expected to poll in the low to mid-teens and so be present in Round Two. The Front de Gauche or the Trotskysts are not expected to make the 10% line, but there's a fair-sized "réservoir" of votes there. Meanwhile Sarkozy has doen all he can to consolidate the rightwing electorate by bringing over Le Pen's electorate to the UMP, and has no significant reserves for the second round.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 02:33:31 PM EST
Is there any advantage to a party of gaining more than 10% in the first round, or is it simply a ticket in?

In other words, could the supporters of the main parties stay at home to watch the rugby without risk??

by Sassafras on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 02:50:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The main thing is the pressure the >10% groups can bring. If you're PS or UMP, you still need to get out the vote (didn't work too well today...) so your rivals but finally partners (coalition partners for running a region) don't get too much of a relative advantage over you.

From this point of view, Europe Ecologie's settling in as Number Two on the left is one important point: the PS can less and less refuse to make deals with them. As for the Front Nazional, it seems Sarko and friends haven't fully succeeded in absorbing them, in spite of their non-stop messages to them.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 03:21:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...also lists that got over 10% in the first round can merge with another one for round #2; and the political horse trading is mostly based on the votes received during the first round.

Many French regions today, including Paris, are run by a PS-Green coalition. It's important for the Greens to score high so that they can claim a higher proportion of seats (and chairmanships) in the merged list for next Sunday. Conversely, the PS needs to remain strong to keep the pesky environmentalist at bay...

The newly merged lists must be checked in by Tuesday, 18:00 sharp (and no stop at the café: this is no Italy :)


Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.

by Bernard on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 04:08:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In amurka it's so much simpler, and more democratic.  One being (corporation) spends a million, gets a million votes.  We don't need no stinking lists, an d we don't even know how to speel coal á lishun.

Skennah Kowa
by Crazy Horse on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 04:13:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... of the willing? Sorry, couldn't resist :)

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
by Bernard on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 04:18:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I thought it was a blend of Caol Ila - of the stilling!

notes from no w here
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 04:27:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Willing, Little Feat in Greater Downtown Germany



Skennah Kowa

by Crazy Horse on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 04:33:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sweet.

Lowell left us too soon.

Jesus died for somebody's sins but not mine - Patti Smith

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 05:06:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Further reply see the OT.

Jesus died for somebody's sins but not mine - Patti Smith
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 05:12:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A million? It's a cheap as that?
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 04:27:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ferchrissake, whaddya you want for a million?  Want more votes, costs you more.  Free market.  Entry level for control of course costs more.

Skennah Kowa
by Crazy Horse on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 04:37:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They believed Sarko on jobs and pouvoir d'achat and got shafted. And the older, working class retirees people aren't so keen on, shall we say, social mores he keeps so it's not surprising to me the FN is back and hitting their stride a bit here.

It does no good whatsoever for the UMP in any case, all these regions with the FN passing the bar.  

Mais c'est un scandâââle!!

by redstar on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 06:08:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is the electoral system proportional or first past the post?

Jesus died for somebody's sins but not mine - Patti Smith
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 03:44:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
FPTP, with run-offs.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 04:00:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Huh. So that's why France doesn't do coalition governments?

Jesus died for somebody's sins but not mine - Patti Smith
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 04:02:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is a regional election. The rules are not the same as national elections.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 04:06:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As for governments, there may be two or more parties involved in forming one. The left in government, for example, generally includes, with the PS as principal group, les Verts, the PC, the Radicaux de Gauche. The right, for most of the 5th Republic, has composed governments out of the Gaullists and the "centre" right (typified by Giscard). Only recently has Sarkozy attempted to create one hegemonic party on the right, the UMP.

Mostly, these coalitions arise before or during elections (between the two rounds). This is, it's true, unlike coalitions in Germany.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 04:20:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
See my comment below.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 04:05:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What do you mean by run-offs?
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 04:07:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The top two candidates in the first round advance to a run-off in the second round?

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 04:08:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But you already answered this in your top-level comment:
One should remember there are two rounds of voting. Only lists having scored at least 10% in the first round may line up for the second (and they may make deals with bigger lists before that). So Round Two sees a decider between the big lists.
Sorry for coming into the thread in medias res.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 04:09:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I wondered if you were giving the term some other meaning than a second round.

Otherwise, it's not first past the post.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 04:13:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I didn't realise up to 9 parties could progress to the second round.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 04:20:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's quite possible (depending on local deals struck) that there'll be four lists on the run-off this time (as per the estimates I posted below.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 04:26:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A bit of one, a bit of the other. The list that gets an absolute majority (whether in the first or second round) gets one quarter of the seats on the regional council as a "base". The remaining three-quarters are distributed proportionally, with a threshold of 5% for getting a seat. So it's proportional with a big advantage to the winning list (intended to produce a clear majority in the council and avoid a "hung" council or constantly shifting coalitions).
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 04:04:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The rules can be found in the French wikipedia.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 04:24:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yup.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 04:29:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The real reason behind the majority bonus is that in 1998 the regional barons proved they couldn't refrain themselves from allying with the FN when faced with the prospect of losing their chauffeur driven cars - in many regions the PS had a plurality but UMP + FN had a majority. The bonus was instituted to prevent that situation - and hide the reality of the position of many right wing apparatchik when it came to alliances with the far right.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 11:05:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm at a polling station to help count the votes. I'll report...

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 02:56:18 PM EST
I did that back in 1993, I think. Interesting experience.
I've also been asked today at my polling station, but I declined: we are just back from attending friends' daughter engagement party near Aix en Provence (who says high-speed rail is a costly toy for businessmen), plus a nasty virus making me cough for over a week now; in short: I'm beat.

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
by Bernard on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 04:13:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
who says high-speed rail is a costly toy for businessmen

Bah. Is that the friend or the daughter?

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Mon Mar 15th, 2010 at 02:50:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's how we traveled to Aix en Provence and back: 3 hours, 50 EUR, each way.

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
by Bernard on Mon Mar 15th, 2010 at 07:50:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, I get it now.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Mar 15th, 2010 at 07:58:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I bumped into my neighbor, and another friend, so I was not alone.

We're regrouped by 4, to count votes by packs of 100. First we count the envelopes to ensure that we have 100. Then they are opened: one picks up the bulletins, one opens them and announces the content, and the other two separately note the count on prepared lists.

All bulletins are of the same size, and follow a given format, so they are easy to distinguish.

We ended up counting 2 series of 100 (there were two other tables like ours; the voting booth has about 1,200 voters, with roughly 50% voting, there were less than 600 envelopes to count.

This is heavy rightwing territory, but the UMP barely reached 50%, and the socialists and greens came secnd and third (usually, the National Front, sovereignist and centrist right wing lists take the top 4 slots, so this is in line with the national trend where the right is getting whupped.

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 04:47:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The estimates now on TV news are that the PS gets 30%, the UMP between 26 and 27, Europe Ecologie between 13 and 14, the FN between 11 and 12.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 03:15:26 PM EST
Tidbits from the regions (still estimates):

  • Languedoc-Roussillon (Montpellier with two "l", Nimes, Perpignan...): Georges Frèche who was recently expelled from the PS for his racists slurs, is the only left-wing list remaining for the second round with 35-37%. The official PS list got less than 10%.

  • Poitou-Charentes (La Rochelle, Poitier, Cognac...): Segolène Royal trounced her UMP opponent Dominique Bussereau (Minister of Transportation in F.Fillon's Cabinet) with 40% vs 29.

  • Île-de-France (Paris and surrounding cities): UMP 29%, PS 25% and the Greens 16.5%.


Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
by Bernard on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 04:27:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is Île-de-France governed by PS/Vert?

Skennah Kowa
by Crazy Horse on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 04:39:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
and it will most likely again - what matters now is the negotiation for the order people are put in the joint list, and the roles they agree to share if they win.

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 04:49:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Merci.

Skennah Kowa
by Crazy Horse on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 04:55:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Georges Frèche who was recently expelled from the PS for his racists slurs, is the only left-wing list remaining for the second round

Sigh. Whats behind this? Did he spin the expulsion in terms of nasty Parisien party elite trouncing local hero?

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Mon Mar 15th, 2010 at 02:55:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes. But his local base is so strong Aubry was no doubt ill-advised in going after him.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Mar 15th, 2010 at 05:35:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
an ideological party, it is a faux-populist party which maintains power via clientelism.

This is particularly the same in Frêche's part of France, and more particulalry in Frêche's case, and why roughly 1 in 2 left voters nationally don't vote PS in the first round.

Mais c'est un scandâââle!!

by redstar on Mon Mar 15th, 2010 at 07:25:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
France24 - Socialists triumph over Sarkozy's party in regional elections

Final official results gave the opposition Socialists 29.48 percent of votes, with the UMP candidates tallying 26.18 percent. European Greens gathered 12.47 percent, ahead of the right-wing National Front's 11.74 percent.

France's Ministry of the Interior put the abstention rate at 53.65 percent, a record low for a regional election.

A coalition of the far left, the Left Front, won up to 5.7 percent of votes, bettering the centrist MoDem party, historically France's third best vote-getter, which struggled to reach 4.24 percent on Sunday.



*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Mar 15th, 2010 at 02:57:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Did MoDem reach 10% in any region?

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Mar 15th, 2010 at 03:14:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In Aquitaine, Bayrou's home turf: 10.43%

That probably pulled some votes from Europe Ecologie, which narrowly missed at 9.75%.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Mar 15th, 2010 at 05:27:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Calling the Front de Gauche "far left" is pretty obvious spin. It's composed mainly of malcontents from the left of the PS, and a recentred Communist Party.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Mar 15th, 2010 at 05:34:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We've seen that with Die Linke in Germany.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Mar 15th, 2010 at 06:32:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
far left (NPA and LO), which both of them did rather poorly, NPA in particular in Ile-de-France, where Besancenot led the list and got really nowhere near the 5% bar.

Looks like he will be delivering mail still in Neuilly, though given the very hefty salary of his partner, it's not like he has to...life is difficult when you are leading the rabble to the barricades...

Mais c'est un scandâââle!!

by redstar on Mon Mar 15th, 2010 at 07:31:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh, all you europhiles are over here :-)  It's looking encouraging. I was thinking of moving to Montpellier a few years ago - Freche certainly put it on the map.

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice. Blog - Nice Experience

by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 06:08:44 PM EST
What are the platforms and messages being used by the parties in these elections? Is it just that PS and les Verts are benefiting from public annoyance at Sarkozy and the defection of some of his voters to FN, or have they actually offered voters something affirmative?

And the world will live as one
by Montereyan (robert at calitics dot com) on Sun Mar 14th, 2010 at 09:32:03 PM EST
French regions, first of all, are not particularly powerful structures; nothing to compare with the German länder, for example. The areas where they most influence policy are education, economic development, and infrastructure (particularly important for regional train services, which SNCF would have allowed to crumble and disappear without regional intervention).

They are almost all run by the Socialist Party. So, predictably, that party tends to defend its record, while the UMP attacks it. As far as positive measures are concerned, the UMP will as usual stress lowering taxes and encouraging private enterprise, while the PS will offer more concrete public projects.

Europe Ecologie (not just les Verts, this is a broader coalition in which, fortunately, les Verts are opening out instead of concentrating on their internal battles) offer a fairly full platform including increase in regional powers, in favour of public services and public transport, renewable energy, "green jobs", "green" farming, localisation, management of territorial problems like urban sprawl. They have by far the fullest bill of proposals (I'm looking at the tracts put out in my region, Midi-Pyrénées).

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Mar 15th, 2010 at 06:22:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
...and because the regions are mostly (20 out of 22) held by the PS, the UMP-led state government has been waging a war on the regional governments.

The most often used trick is to transfer social policies and other expensive burden, like highway maintenance, from the state to the regions, but not the tax receipt income that allows to finance all of this.

In France, regions cannot levy income taxes, it's a privilege of the central government: only a handful of taxes are for the local governments, like property taxes, or the soon to be defunct "professional tax" that was levied on businesses [Sarko decided to suppress this tax, to relieve his business friends and to spite the regions' executives].

Transferring expense burden from the state to the (mostly Socialist) regions allowed our president to implement his tax cuts policies, banskter relief plans, neo-colonial adventures in Afghanistan, etc...

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.

by Bernard on Mon Mar 15th, 2010 at 08:02:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
regional train services, which SNCF would have allowed to crumble and disappear without regional intervention

Hm... which the French state would have allowed to crumble without regionalisation. As it depends on subsidies, the question is who is willing and able to fork it out.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Mon Mar 15th, 2010 at 08:04:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I say SNCF advisedly. SNCF has no wish to maintain regional services, (I would even say is obstructive), even when the regions provide considerable subsidies (buying new rolling stock, for instance).
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Mar 15th, 2010 at 09:09:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Those subsidies could have been provided by the French state earlier, but weren't (to this extent).

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Mar 15th, 2010 at 09:15:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You're not wrong about the state. In any case, the state should be dictating SNCF policy, since it's wholly public sector. But SNCF has an outdated corporate culture that is still dominated by postwar notions that rail was destined to disappear from the scene (except for HSR, and then, for SNCF, only the more profitable lines).
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Mar 15th, 2010 at 09:20:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
All managements want to bother only with what's profitable -- and branchlines rarely are, even if new vehicles and station renewals get funding and result in boosted passenger numbers. So, on one hand, the corporate culture is a consequence and function of the level of political commitment to subsidizing public transport. On the other hand, this line-by-line view is short-sighted -- and especially SNCF (with the two decades long bad record of its far-from-city-centre TGV stations) should have realised the role of feeders in the profitability of its mainlines. Then again, this over-reductionist line-by-line view is again dictated by politics, for 4-5 decades now.

SNCF is definitely behind its European peers in what's possible with the new vehicles even on mainlines, what with the slow spread of regular interval timeplans, and the policy of limited stop services.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Tue Mar 16th, 2010 at 06:26:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks for this quick primer. Very useful!

And the world will live as one
by Montereyan (robert at calitics dot com) on Mon Mar 15th, 2010 at 01:25:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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