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by afew
I first said this a week ago about the rumour around the French president's marriage to Carla Bruni. The first-round regional election results on Sunday now leave a political situation in which Sarkozy's capacity to persuade people he is leading the country in a coherent manner is plainly revealed as nil, and in which his majority-building strategy, based on a single pro-presidential party on the right, is crumbling.
So was the first round of an "exclusively regional" election an epiphany? It looks like it. First, by the extremely low turnout, less than 50%. Next, by the defeat for the right: the left of the political spectrum comes out solidly ahead. Then, by the destruction, willed by Sarkozy and his advisors, of the centrist right: there is now no identifiable party capable of drawing centre-right voters, while François Bayrou's would-be independent centrist party, the MoDem, is a fast-sinking ship. Finally, by the resurrection as a player of the Front National, with between 11% and 12% of the vote, and able to contest the second round of the election in twelve regions (out of 22). Add to this, that Sarkozy's personal inconsistency and lack of vision have entered the field of mass perception as he has lost control of the media cycle. Even with help from media-owning friends, non-stop communication, photo ops, declarations and promises backed by the appearance of action, end by wearying the electorate. Once belief, or the suspension of disbelief, is lost, the presidential image can go very quickly downhill. So, the phrase has been going the rounds, of the "Kleenex president", the one you use and throw away: and the meme has not come from the opposition, but from Sarko's own side.
The UMP strategy, the one hegemonic party that would include the former Gaullists, the former centre-right, extend to the far right to siphon off Le Pen's electorate, and cross the lines into the soft belly of the left, has also taken a big hit.
It depended, on one side, on "opening up" towards Socialists who could be tempted away with job offers. In itself, that works depressingly well, given the number of takers and wannabes lining up to "work for the good of the country", but, at the same time, it offers the disadvantage of frustrating and blunting the motivation of the conservative base. Sarko has held out so many lollipops to the kids on the "centre left", that the kids in his own gang are feeling deprived and jealous. The failure on the other side, the far right, is more momentous. There's been plenty of comment on ET about Sarkozism's deliberate playing to the rightwing gallery on immigration and security, and I've written before on the recuperation of the symbols of the Résistance at the same time as power has communicated strongly on Vichy-replica concepts like "national identity": the muddying of the waters, the attempted rewriting of the popular perception of history. It's important to note that the appeal to Le Pen's electorate is what allowed Sarkozy to win in 2007. The appeal doesn't seem to be working any more: what a certain portion of the working class, suffering from the crisis, wants is not communication on symbols, but defence of its interests by means of throwing immigrants out of the country. The FN is back in the game with a mighty wish for revenge on Sarko. The remaining two years or so of Sarko's five-year mandate look bleak (for him). This is likely to have an effect on the continuing subjacent programme of neoliberal "reform" that is Sarkozism's real work. Sarko announced in the middle-class conservative Fig-Mag last week that there would be a lull in "reform" in the second part of next year (just before the elections in 2012). The "lull" is likely to begin sooner. |
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Sarko On The Skids | 10 comments (10 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
Sarko On The Skids | 10 comments (10 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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