The Spectacle of Modern Investment Markets...

by Migeru
Wed May 5th, 2010 at 05:59:51 AM EST

... has sometimes moved me towards the conclusion that to make the purchase of an investment permanent and indissoluble, like marriage, except by reason of death or other grave cause, might be a useful remedy for our contemporary evils. For this would force the investor to direct his mind to the long-term prospects and to those only.
So wrote John Maynard Keynes in his General Theory. (The full quotation --- about 2/3 of a chapter of the book, where Keynes lays down his analysis of the workings of financial markets --- can be found here, with my transcription typos...)

I was reminded of Keynes' words when I read this (h/t Metatone): Bond traders ready gilt sell-off for hung vote (This Is Money [UK], 4 May 2010)


Bond markets will open at an unprecedented 1am on Friday - three hours after the polls close - because traders want to be able to sell UK gilts and effectively offload their shares in the Government.

In a stark warning about the economic consequences if no one party wins a working majority, the futures market Liffe has been forced to open its doors after coming under pressure from investors.

This gives traders and investors the chance to dump gilts - Government bonds - in the event of a hung Parliament or to load up should there be a shock result to their liking, as happened in 1992 when the Conservatives won.

Let's see: bond traders don't know whether they'll want to sell off all their gilts or stock up on them, but whatever it is they want in on the action as soon as possible and so have pressured the casino to open its doors 7 hours early, in the wee hours of the morning, so they can have a market panic. In the event of a close vote count (the traders are betting we'll know whether the Tories have a majority within three hours of polls closing) we can look forward to a very volatile early morning trading, with each new vote count report being followed by a stampede in one direction or the other.

(Earlier commentary here)

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The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 5th, 2010 at 06:00:52 AM EST
The Guardian: Poll jitters will mean a sleepless night for Britain's bond traders: Bond traders are preparing to work through the night once the polls have closed on Thursday
For the first time in British election history they will not have to wait until the morning to stampede out of bad positions. The futures market in bonds and sterling will be open overnight and most banks will be making sure their trading desks are well staffed.

Traders taking positions on Thursday will have the luxury of knowing that from 1am on Friday they can be back at their desks reacting to exit polls. In the past they could trade sterling in overseas markets and cash British government bonds - or gilts - if they could find a counterparty, but trading in the more liquid futures market would not restart until 8am.

...

"The gilt market usually opens at 8am but you could know the result some time before that and so that would make it more of a casino not less of a casino."

As usual, Keynes had the punchline ready 75 years ago:
When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done.


The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 5th, 2010 at 06:11:44 AM EST
Silly me. I thought SOP was to close exchanges if there was the danger of a panic.

The US even did so after 9/11.

"The gilt market usually opens at 8am but you could know the result some time before that and so that would make it more of a casino not less of a casino."

In that case, the exchange could be shut down until Monday...

Jesus died for somebody's sins but not mine - Patti Smith

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed May 5th, 2010 at 08:06:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by das monde on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 01:29:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bonds are an especially powerful meme for the right wing, because any complaints about the bond market for country borrowing raise the response:

"Well if you don't like how the market works, run a balanced budget..."

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed May 5th, 2010 at 06:16:32 AM EST
"un a balanced budget"

Which the right wing is known to do of course. For example, see under Bush, George.

"Few can believe that suffering, especially by others, is in vain. - Galbraith"

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 02:03:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
When they're in power, "deficits don't matter".

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 02:20:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course not.

They like how the bond markets work.

- Jake

"Terraforming your own planet to make it uninhabitable hardly counts as epic win." - ThatBritGuy

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:45:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It occurs to me that very few voters actually understand how this works.

I think they might be quite a bit angrier if they did.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:48:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They may be starting to figure it out. We may know in a few days.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer at eurotrib.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 04:13:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed May 5th, 2010 at 06:44:57 AM EST
Connecting up Debord with my incoherent comments both in this diary and others - there's a big element of "morality play" in a lot of the "bond vigilante" stuff...

Ritual punishment of transgressions... in public... enforcing the religion...

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed May 5th, 2010 at 07:20:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Heh. Here I was about to make my comment on "the markets'" demand to be front and centre stage, symbolising their importance and precedence over political personnel. Grand Guignol politique.

No longer shadowy transactions running the world. The markets are bidding to run the world before our eyes, putting on a show that will institutionalise their power. Over governments, of course, we know that now - and aren't we being told here that governments are no more than companies in which the markets are shareholders? And that the real business this week in Britain is how much the markets will bet on the result of an election in a democracy?

We're going to need the guillotine and the tumbrils again. Now that was le Spectacle.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed May 5th, 2010 at 08:58:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The markets are bidding to run the world before our eyes, putting on a show that will institutionalise their power. Over governments, of course, we know that now - and aren't we being told here that governments are no more than companies in which the markets are shareholders?
What does it take for the governments to say basta?

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 5th, 2010 at 09:01:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Greece may be about to find out.

It's going to be interesting to see where we are a year from now.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed May 5th, 2010 at 09:03:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
AP via google: 3 dead during Greek riots
Greek fire officials say three people have died in a blaze that broke out at an Athens bank during rioting over government austerity measures.

...

Protesters were hurling Molotov cocktails at police and buildings. At least two buildings were on fire, while hundreds of people were involved in the clashes.

The government agreed to drastic budget cuts to win bailout loans from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.



The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 5th, 2010 at 09:08:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think your sig line needs updating: "The brainless should not be in banking. Neither should the spineless. And certainly not the brainless and spineless." Were that injunction heeded it should generate lots of openings in banking.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer at eurotrib.com) on Wed May 5th, 2010 at 09:19:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I keep telling you people we should start our own bank.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Wed May 5th, 2010 at 06:18:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm game.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 5th, 2010 at 06:20:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I believe it's been discussed, informally, on a number of occasions.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:50:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Now we just have to decide what kind of a bank it should be. ;)

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 11:53:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How could this be done practically? Wouldn't we need massive capital to start with?

"Few can believe that suffering, especially by others, is in vain. - Galbraith"
by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 12:12:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, you need investors to provide the cash, and a management team with a track record - or at least a name or two - to run it.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 12:35:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the biggest barrier to entry is not capital but regulatory compliance.

Basically, I think you would have to run a business for a few years which would not be a "bank" and after accumulating a number of operational records for maybe 5 years you could become a "bank".

The easiest way to start a new bank is to buy a failing one, possbly.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat May 8th, 2010 at 05:28:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
On a related point we really should increase ESA's budget. Finding out how this all turns out from a hollow asteroid somewhere near Jupiter has a certain charm to it.

Wait this is important. Someone is wrong on the Internet.
by generic on Wed May 5th, 2010 at 09:33:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What does it take for the governments to say basta?

A spine? Statesmanship?

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer at eurotrib.com) on Wed May 5th, 2010 at 09:15:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Statesmanship and backbone are in short supply, for sure. But "the markets'" advantage is that they are global. Only major international decisions could face them down. Hence the neolib insistence on member states' sovereignty (ha, choke laughing on that word, sovereignty of the markets, yes...) within the EU, hence its absence of economic and fiscal governance.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed May 5th, 2010 at 09:51:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The markets are global only by government fiat.

They could be made un-global in a heartbeat.

- Jake

"Terraforming your own planet to make it uninhabitable hardly counts as epic win." - ThatBritGuy

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed May 5th, 2010 at 03:17:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One government's heartbeat?
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed May 5th, 2010 at 03:52:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If it has a balanced or surplus foreign trade and is populated by white people who speak English, yes.

If it has a foreign trade deficit it will be subjected to economic hit men, and if it is populated by brown people or Russians, it will be subjected to the more old-fashioned kind of hit men.

- Jake

"Terraforming your own planet to make it uninhabitable hardly counts as epic win." - ThatBritGuy

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed May 5th, 2010 at 09:39:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
JakeS:
If it has a balanced or surplus foreign trade and is populated by white people who speak English, yes

The Germans are going to have to work hard on projecting themselves as Angles and Saxons, then.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 02:41:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Europe English

The European Commission has just announced an agreement whereby English will be the official language of the EU rather than German which was the other possibility.

As part of the negotiations, Her Majesty's Government conceded that English spelling had some room for improvement and has accepted a five year phase-in plan that would be known as "Euro-English".

In the first year, "s" will replace the soft "c". Sertainly, this will make the sivil servants jump with joy. The hard "c" will be dropped in favour of the "k". This should klear up konfusion and keyboards kan have 1 less letter.

There will be growing publik enthusiasm in the sekond year, when the troublesome "ph" will be replaced with "f". This will make words like "fotograf" 20% shorter.

In the 3rd year, publik akseptanse of the new spelling kan be ekspekted to reach the stage where more komplikated changes are possible. Governments will enkorage the removal of double letters, which have always ben a deterent to akurate speling. Also, al wil agre that the horible mes of the silent "e"s in the language is disgraseful, and they should go away.

By the fourth year, peopl wil be reseptiv to steps such as replasing "th" with "z" and "w" with "v". During ze fifz year, ze unesesary "o" kan be dropd from vords kontaining "ou" and similar changes vud of kors be aplid to ozer kombinations of leters.

After zis fifz yer, ve vil hav a reli sensibl riten styl. Zer vil be no mor trubl or difikultis and evrivun vil find it ezi to understand ech ozer. Ze drem vil finali kum tru! And zen world!



The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 02:48:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
finerly sumwun kun spel rite.

next: grama and sintaks. 2 masta langwidj iz tu masta de mynd!

"Two wrongs don't make a right, but three lefts do." Jim Hightower

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 05:40:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You know, that's not such a bad idea.
by Zwackus on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 07:09:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I love it.  It will also help with texting.

"I said, 'Wait a minute, Chester, You know I'm a peaceful man...'" Robbie Robertson
by NearlyNormal on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 05:48:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Practically, it will take majorities of electorates in key countries or collections of countries enforcing their will on governments so as to wrest control of policy making away from self-interested financial elites and re-directing it in the interests of the whole population and maximizing the survivability of that population. The sign that this is actually occurring will be that large numbers of very rich people go to jail and have much of their ill-gotten wealth confiscated as restitution for the damage they have inflicted on society. Needless to say, accomplishing the above will be an extremely daunting task, but any thing less will be "just kicking the can down the road".

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer at eurotrib.com) on Wed May 5th, 2010 at 04:01:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ARGeezer:
large numbers of very rich people

Along the Paris streets, the death-carts rumble, hollow and harsh. Six tumbrils carry the day's wine to La Guillotine.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed May 5th, 2010 at 04:36:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Or a wall and a machine gun, a la Tsar Nicolai and family. But I hope we can do something effective while stopping short of that. The dynamics that were involved in The Terror and The Bolshevik Revolution both degenerated into wretched excess, the sort you or I or people in our extended families, who had little, if anything to do with creating the problem.

But yes, I have imagined scenarios where gatherings of the ultra rich are targets of opportunity. The tip of Manhattan at 10:00 AM on a triple witching could be one such, for those so inclined. Far better that people are brought to their senses via the law, but.....

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer at eurotrib.com) on Wed May 5th, 2010 at 07:08:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The dynamics that were involved in The Terror and The Bolshevik Revolution both degenerated into wretched excess, the sort you or I or people in our extended families, who had little, if anything to do with creating the problem.

Your convoluted period is missing a verb, I fear.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 5th, 2010 at 07:12:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is an oracular pronouncement and therefore does not have to be a complete sentence.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer at eurotrib.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 04:18:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And, you know, people who have known me for a long while will tell you that when I am the voice of restraint, things are getting pretty bad.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer at eurotrib.com) on Wed May 5th, 2010 at 07:12:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Like when Keith Richard tells you we've had enough.

"I said, 'Wait a minute, Chester, You know I'm a peaceful man...'" Robbie Robertson
by NearlyNormal on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 05:50:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Another book to add to my "therapy through reading" pile.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Wed May 5th, 2010 at 01:40:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Buy some out-of-money Puts and Calls and sell on the swings?  If there is enough volatility should be able to profit both ways.

But it's all silly.  At some point, don't know when, some Grown Ups are going to have to stop this adolescent nonsense.

No one could have predicted

by ATinNM on Wed May 5th, 2010 at 01:39:13 PM EST
Grownups - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com

I'll probably have more to say about all this, but let me focus for the moment on one particular line -- the one where Glassman says,

Now that the financial reform debate is in the final innings, it's time for the grownups to step in.

Atrios writes about this often, the persistent perception that conservative authority figures are the grownups, the people who know what really works, while the critics are pie-in-the-sky nuts. Yet for the past decade at least, the "grownups" have again and again proved utterly clueless



Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
by Bernard on Wed May 5th, 2010 at 05:00:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
we can look forward to a very volatile early morning trading
So, who cares? Let the traders stay up all night and stampede back and forth for all they're worth.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Wed May 5th, 2010 at 06:16:55 PM EST
So, who cares?

Those who are trying to use the financial markets for what they have been touted as doing: pension funds for starters.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer at eurotrib.com) on Wed May 5th, 2010 at 07:15:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But 1) that was a lie. 2) If you bought a 30-year gilt as part of a pension, the cash flows you'll be getting are independent of the price of the bond in the secondary market.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 02:17:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Pension funds don't care, or shouldn't care, about daily bond market fluctuations. If they don't feel comfortable about owning gilts(!) overnight(!!!!!), they shouldn't own them at all.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 07:50:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
An issue I've not seen addressed in this thread is the one suggested in the opening Keynes quote - what would the consequences of making bond ownership permanent be?  What advantages or disadvantages would accrue from such a situation?
by Zwackus on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 07:12:37 AM EST
I prefer to think of the consequences of making all bonds undated - a generic approach to Consols. which would approach a debt/equity swap.

Modern conservatives engage in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy: the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.Galbraith
by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 08:14:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The continuation of the Keynes quote is his famous liquidity dilemma:
... For this would force the investor to direct his mind to the long-term prospects and to those only. But a little consideration of this expedient brings us up against a dilemma, and shows us how the liquidity of investment markets often facilitates, though it sometimes impedes, the course of new investment. For the fact that each individual investor flatters himself that his commitment is 'liquid' (though this cannot be true of all investors collectively) calms his nerves  and makes him much more willing to run a risk. If individual purchases of investments were rendered illiquid, this might seriously impede new investment, so long as alternative ways in which to hold his savings are availale to the individual. This is the dilemma. So long as it is open to the individual to employ his wealth in hoarding or lending money, the alternative of purchasing actual capital assets cannot be rendered sufficiently attractive (especially to the man who does not manage the capital assets and know very little about them), except by organising markets wherein these assets can be easily realised for money.


The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:33:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Does that not primarily refer to people who buy bonds from their originator?  What small part of the speculative casino is that, anyway?

Then again, it's hard to see how one could restrict rights to re-sale without inherently devaluing the asset price for that re-sale.

by Zwackus on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 05:40:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
[Torygraph Alert] : General Election 2010: Pound, Gilts and FTSE react: As the election looks set to deliver the first hung Parliament since 1974, join us in following the reaction across financial markets.
03:55 Steve Reid, co-head of gilts trading at Citigroup, is on an all-nighter and he tells me the view on the Canary Wharf trading floor is similar to Fiona's at the Beeb. "Increasingly it looks like a hung parliament but there's no clarity on what form that will take. Every time we get a Tory seat we rally, then if it's Labour we head the other way." Reid says the trading desks are quiet with most people prefering a good night's sleep and opting to get going when things are clearer in the morning. "It will take the market a while to digest what's going on and work out what's happening."


The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 03:59:54 AM EST


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