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UK Election Results Thread 2

by ThatBritGuy Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:11:59 PM EST

Spillover...


Display:
That's my boy.

Looking like a hung parliament I think.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:07:09 PM EST
Agreed for now.  Tories are only pulling a swing of about 3-4% so far.  Looks like they're coming up a bit short on the swing in England but totally missing it everywhere else.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:09:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think there will be some damage in the whiter parts of the Midlands. So it's not a sure thing yet.

But it's looking better than I was expecting a couple of hours ago.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:15:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Could be.  Certainly Gedling was an encouraging result, though.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:16:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Damn My religious Loony got back in on a huge swing to tories

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:20:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry to hear that ceebs.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:23:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
23,247 holds Kettering. Second place Labour Phil Sawford on 14,153 votes.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:24:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In Scotland and Wales you can pretty much forget the Tories.

But I'm 290 seats bid 310 seats offered for the Tories, I think....

The key point to me is if Labour and Lib Dem between them reach a majority (326) of seats and also a majority of the popular vote.

If they get both, then I reckon Brown might just cut a deal with Clegg.

Moreover, he'll do it quickly - maybe even tonight and tomorrow - before the Tories can parachute in and do what Salmond did in Scotland by trumpeting the 'win' all over the Press.

He could even square the SNP and Plaid Cymru if necessary by giving them the Scottish and Welsh Secretary jobs....

Interesting times.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:20:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ChrisCook:
In Scotland and Wales you can pretty much forget the Tories.

I'm afraid not for Wales.  We didn't have any Conservative MPs and now 3 are in at least.

by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:34:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He could even square the SNP and Plaid Cymru if necessary by giving them the Scottish and Welsh Secretary jobs....

Really, you think that the SNP will be bought off that easy?  I'm thinking at this point that the push to have a referendum on Scottish independence is going to be strong....

For the Lib Dems to partner with anyone, the question is going to be one of proportional representation.

This should be fun.

How many ways can you cut Britain up?

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:15:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have never seen Brown look as happy or relaxed as he is now.

I reckon he cut a deal with the Lib Dems very recently - before Monday - and if they jointly get a plurality of votes and seats he'll resign as party leader and hand over as PM to Clegg, with a guarantee for PR.

It's an offer Clegg can't refuse, and it's an offer his Labour troops can't refuse either.  

If it happens, it'll happen quick, before the Tories can mobilise.

Time for a Change, indeed.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:24:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So Lib Dems get the least votes, and take home the PM position.  Oh the irony given the lines we were told but a week back.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:30:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That would be hilarious.

But I'm not convinced that NuLab could make it stick for long.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:37:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course if PR is forced through as the price of keeping Labor in government, a new election would only benefit the Lib Dems......

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:45:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I've seen it happen a few time sin other countries.
by Upstate NY on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:44:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That might be just funny enough to get me to buy Chris's theory.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:57:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's certainly an offer Clegg can't turn down.  

Is Brown that street-smart?

Would the various Labour Powers-That-Be go for it?


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:37:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... then it matters which seats have been called - that's the appeal of the uniform swing, since each seat just adds to a simple average. If a proportional swing is more accurate, each seat would have to be weighted based on its prior majority to get an average swing.

It'll be interesting to see which works better.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:32:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Labour takes back Glasgow East.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:10:47 PM EST
oof, big swing in Aberconwy from lab to cons. One of the cons target seats.
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:17:12 PM EST
and lost the Vale of Glamorgan to obnoxious Tory Alan Cairns who was scribbling his acceptance speech notes as the results were being read out.
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:20:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Damn it.

The Lib/Dems don't seem to be breaking through in their Tory marginals.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:19:25 PM EST
I think the Lib-Dems are in for some real disappointment tonight.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:25:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Breaking into the two party stranglehold on voting appears to be as tough in this parliamentary system as it is in the US.

I never quite appreciated this before. Of course, voters are nervous.

80 - LAB
77 - CON
9 - Lib Dem
22 - Other

According to the BBC.

"It Can't Be Just About Us"
--Frank Schnittger, ETian Extraordinaire

by papicek (papi_cek_at_hotmail_dot_com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:06:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It does appear that Labour loyalty is strong and Tory-hate is even stronger.  Clegg may have bungled it flirting with the Conservatives last week.  Maybe he and Brown cut a deal two weeks ago?
by paving on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:51:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Lib-Dems lose one to Tories (Montgomeryshire?).

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:23:58 PM EST
Lib Dem's Lembit Opik loses Montgomeryshire to former Tory AM Glyn Davies

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:25:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm actually surprised.  I thought his cheeky celebrityness might keep him in.
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:27:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
National press doesn't mean doodoo if his constituent service was lousy.  If he didn't work for the people in his district.  In short, if he was more concerned about grabbing headlines than doing his damn job.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:32:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh No, that edge of Wales  is wound up about the Welsh aseembly even being there. Now theyve started doing things its brought all the Tories out of the woodwork

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:32:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ive always assumed he was actually secretly Gay, and the celebrities were cover, but thats my cynical reading of celebrity culture rather than anything concrete

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:34:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I assumed the same. (shrug)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:37:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
OMG no.  I've met him a number of times. He is a perv. My large chested friend wasn't looked at in the eye once.
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:44:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A conservative perv?

"Nobody could've...." ;)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:45:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thought we were discussing Lembit? He's a Lib Dem.
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:48:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I thought we were talking about fat-boat-party guy?

Ignore me.  I'm usually in bed two hours earlier than now, so if I go crazy in the next couple hours, you've all been warned.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:54:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, I see, my bad.  Following wrong threads.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:56:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If the fat Boat party guy is the one I think you're refering too then by co-incidence both him and lembit are part of long running private eye photo jokes

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:03:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He has just been interviewed, you can see he's been crying.  It's obviously unexpected for him.
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:46:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
LOL

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:52:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In the opinion of some people who aren't necessarily here tonight, Opik might be charitably described as a bit of a nutter.

But what happened to the LD vote? Where is it?

No one believed the exit poll, but it's looking more and more like it was spot on again.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:28:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't see any way to describe this other than as a disaster for the Lib-Dems.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:34:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's a disaster for everyone - almost no danger of PR at all.

But a win for Murdoch and the gutter press, as usual.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:36:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One thing, a month ago the Cons were considered a shoo-in.  Whatever happens, it isn't going to be that.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:40:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The fact that Cameron is at all doubtful to get a majority is pretty pathetic for the Tories.

Ironically, the only guy who seems to be getting above expectations in this election is Gordon Brown.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:43:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But Tories fail to take Bolton NE from labour - only 2 per cent swing

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:31:43 PM EST
Oh god.  It's the git-on-the-boat again.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:35:09 PM EST
Bonds and the pound are up, proving that a hung parliament is a given catastrophe.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:41:27 PM EST
The gits' rationalisation is that Cameron will still have a total he can work with, even if it's not an absolute win.

Nice to see all the usual serious talking points being laid out about deficits and cuts.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:45:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And wage-freezes.  Don't forget wage-freezes.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:46:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:52:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...adding: I know it shouldn't, but it really baffles me that here we are having many of the same fights that were had 80 years ago.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:47:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So I'm relaxing on the couch listening to Dimbleby, et al, while blogging on my iPad.  Wife walks up, takes iPad, "Thaaaaank you!"

Walks towards the bedroom, turns to stick her tongue out at me, goes in, and closes the door.

I mean...just, what the fuck?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:49:14 PM EST
Tories take Broxtowe, 2.6% swing.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:56:46 PM EST
My home MP (Alun Michael) kept his seat but the Tories have made gains - unsurprising, though I had expected the lib dems to pick up a bit more.
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:59:02 PM EST
So will we see a change of leaders in both two main parties after tonight?


Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:05:39 PM EST
Sorry, all three?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:06:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, considering Cameron will probably be burned in front of Parliament if this vote doesn't pull up for them....

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:15:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Did you see that Oxbridge twit raving about how Cameron was his best pupil evah and is a model of noble and enduring statesmanly calmness and poise?

Why doesn't the BBC get Satan for its next election special - it couldn't possibly make the coverage any more obviously biased.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:18:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, yes, graduated with an outstanding degree.  Such a smart boy.

I do get the sense that the talking heads sense all is not well for the Torytubbies.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:21:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is there someone I can pay to see this live?
by paving on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:52:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think Brown is gone.  One way or the other he will either go or be pushed.

Cameron will hang around if only because he's their only hope of forming a government.  Afterwards, I don't think much of his chances.  The bottom line is they had a massive lead only 2 months ago and now they're scrambling to cobble a minority or coalition governing majority.  

While I admit total ignorance about the internals of the Lib/Dems it must be observed Clegg did them proud during the debate.  It's not his fault they couldn't seal the deal.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:16:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
@Charonqc I've just been talking to a mate of mine... Hugh Bris.... he thinks there could be three leaders resigning tomorrow.... true story!


Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:40:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No idea how to evaluate that.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:46:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Easy to sack Brown, he "lost" a massive number of seats bequeathed to him by his good mate Blair ... indeed, if the LD are in a position to go into coalition with Labor, it could only be at the cost of Brown stepping down as leader.

Impossible to sack Cameron, he just picked up a massive number of seats.

I'd think the LD's 'd be unlikely to sack Clegg, he's only lost big relative to hopes that were raised after his first few weeks of campaigning.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 11:57:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not sacking Cameron is fine - he's mediocre enough to repeat this performance if there's a rematch.

The question for Labour is who takes Gordo's place.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 12:00:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And my old constituency has seen a 10.5 % swing to the Lib Dems From Plaid Its a LD hold, but I wasn't expecting that

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:20:01 PM EST
Paxman says that Labour and the Lib-Dems have apparently already entered into talks.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:22:38 PM EST
As I said up-thread, I reckon they already have a deal in principle, probably at the week-end.

Brown looked 10 years younger at the count. He's outta here.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:26:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now that you mention it, yeah;  he looked like someone coming back from a 4 week vacation.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:32:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Steve Bell on the results of the general election | Cartoon | Comment is free | The Guardian
Steve Bell on the results of the general election


Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:29:48 PM EST
Swing is steadying at around 4.8%.  May well go up, but the Tories are underperforming the exit poll so far.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:39:50 PM EST
If you look at the BBC's regional view the swing is very patchy - strong in the North, Midlands and London, barely visible elsewhere.

Doesn't look like it's happening for Lord Photoshop. A consistent swing would have done it, but when it's patchy like this - pffft.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:47:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:52:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Dr Evan Harris the Science Lib Dem in a recount against a "Christians are being repressed" Tory candidate

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:42:15 PM EST
Oxford West and Abingdon (sp)?

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:53:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
think so, just heard they're on a second recount as after the first the Tories were 100 votes closer.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 11:15:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And rumour has it that its gone Tory.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 11:17:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Tories win Carlisle.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:42:48 PM EST
Looks likely to see a recount for Cardiff North due to being neck and neck between labour and Cons.
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:50:09 PM EST
and we've lost Carmarthen West to the fox hunting Tory I was campaigning against with Brian May
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:56:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How badly?


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 11:01:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC News | Election 2010 | Constituency | Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South
Simon Hart Conservative 16,649 41.1% +9.8
Nick Ainger Labour 13,226 32.7% -4.0
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 11:13:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Rochdale, constituency of that bigoted woman, a Lab Hold

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:52:56 PM EST
Yes, clearly the women of Rochdale decided to rise up against mean ol' Gordo.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:55:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC saying Nick Griffin will come 3rd in Barking

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 11:06:54 PM EST
Aw, what am shame....

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 11:08:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Alright, time for bed for me.  Should be an exciting day tomorrow!

'Night, guys.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 11:20:10 PM EST
Seeing rumours that Jaqui Smith has gone

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 11:22:28 PM EST
Wow she looks shellshocked

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 11:36:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not unexpected though.

Her replacement looks like a nasty piece of work.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 11:40:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One begins to wonder how long the Conservatives will hold these seats they're winning tonight.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 11:41:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe this election will remind MPs they don't get to fiddle their expense accounts without repercussions.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 11:40:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well it should, but Unless independent  voices bring that out in the analysis, I think the political class had already edited it out of their collective memory as something they didnt need to worry about.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 11:44:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Lib Dems take Redcar from Labour on massive 21% swing. Solicitor-General Vera Baird out.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 11:23:42 PM EST
That's what we in the US call an Old Fashioned Ass-kicking.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 11:35:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ed Balls survives. Lot of tories were thinking that he would be their Portillo moment.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 11:51:32 PM EST
Charles Clarke ex home sec gone fallen to Lib Dem

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 11:55:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So Charles Clarke and Jaqui Smith both go, both Major supporters as home secretary of ID cards

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 12:02:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is it possible to say NuLabour has run its course?

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 12:06:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In any sane world, however as we all know they failed because theyd gone too far towards the left....

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 12:11:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Unless the Lib/Dems start getting some seats a Labour & Lib/Dem government won't have a majority.

Looking like a minority Conservative government.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 11:55:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hazel Blears? how did she win?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 12:11:07 AM EST
Ha!

Labour held Hammersmith.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 12:28:14 AM EST
Hmm looks like Tory voters wont vote for ethnic minority candidates..

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 12:32:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Looking at the UKIP and BNP numbers will be instructive.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 12:43:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Total fail on all counts. No seats, and in most places they only picked up the crank vote.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 01:11:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I meant specifically in Hammersmith.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 01:19:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
2.1% combined for UKIP and BNP.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 09:18:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC projecting:

Conservatives: 306 seats
Labour: 262
Lib/Dem: 55
Misc: 27

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 12:41:40 AM EST
Right bedtime. results will start to really slow up now hopefully all will be clear when I wake.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 12:44:10 AM EST
The Conservative spinmeisters are whinging about "Moral Authority."  Wonder what the "Moral Authority" of having tens of millions pumped into your campaign coffers by an off-shore tax dodger is.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 12:45:50 AM EST
Tories whining about moral anything is always fun to watch.

Fun spots:

Cameron parachuted in some black and/or female and/or working class Tory candidates, very likely for show. They lost.

Cameron couldn't win a majority against one of the least popular PMs in recent history, after the expenses scandal, bigotgate, massive spending on marginals, support from Murdoch and the gutter MSM, and last year's econo-meltdown and banking crisis.

The markets expected a clear Tory win. They were wrong.

But... Clegg could still put the knife in by siding with Cameron. I wouldn't be completely surprised if he did that.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 01:10:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think Brown hates the UK and I think he'll do what he has to in order to see to it that a LibDem/Labour coalition happens, especially if they have an actual majority of seats together.  Frankly I think the deal has already been discussed.

Gordon Brown has had a few weeks to get used to losing and a year before that to get used to the idea of fucking Cameron in charge.  I'm sure it makes his skin crawl as much as it does everyone else's.  There is joy in being a kingmaker and surprisingly he has this one last shot at it.

by paving on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 01:22:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Labour plus the Lib/Dems are - if the BBC predictions hold - 13 seats short of 326.  

The Tories all by themselves: 14 short.  

Brown has first shot at forming a government and then it's up to Cameron -- if I understand the process correctly.

Tory + Lib/Dem is a solid majority.  

Tory + a miscellaneous gaggle is on sufferance.

shrug

Clegg's price should be the Tories passing PR?

But I'm no British Parliament tactician.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 01:33:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Damn.

Tories are 18 short.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 01:34:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Anybody else Brown can throw on the bone pile to get a majority?  LibDems are cheap, how about the regionals?
by paving on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 01:37:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Brown is a boat anchor.  He is the most unpopular PM since ... well, I don't know when.  In my ignorant opinion Clegg would be a damn fool to go anywhere near him.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 01:39:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think Cameron is a much more dangerous coalition partner.  The next PM has a shit job anyway, Brown would be smart to give it to Clegg, let him be the front man for the "austerity" that the Labour cabinet actually engineers.  

If the LibDems learn anything from tonight's results it is that Labour is not as weak as everyone though three weeks ago. There is loyalty within the ranks and they are still viewed as the legitimate opposition to the Tories.  LibDems didn't show any sign of taking their place in that equation tonight.  

Brown is ruined and so are some of the other faces of NewLab that won't be missed.  The UK voted for part of the Labour platform.  A coalition needs to determine which parts of that platform can move forward and which ones cannot.  Does anybody seriously believe that Cameron will negotiate anything?  Any coalition partner will either be run over or shown to have made an egregious error three months later when they have to collapse the coalition.

Labour won enough votes tonight to avoid the appearance of illegitimacy provided that Gordon Brown is no longer PM.

And a large majority of the UK, in the popular vote, chose to vote for someone other than the Tories.  This argument depends on support for PR, which Labour is already going public with.

by paving on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 01:47:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
However you slice it, you get fail.

Clegg + Brown - old and smelly.
Clegg + Cameron - Clegg loses around half his supporters and not a few of his MPs overnight.
Cameron + Brown - just no.
A.N.Other + Clegg + PR - Clegg might go for this as a caretaker government while another election with PR is set up. It would give ANOther a change to establish themselves.

Brown is Labour's biggest liability, so a fresh face might swing things in an interesting direction.

But I still worry about Clegg + Cameron, and some pious self-serving nonsense about a government of stability in these difficult times, etc.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 01:47:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
OK, that's where I was leaning but hesitated to say.

The only thing the Tories can offer the Lib/Dems is PR.  Which would, most likely, split the Tories.

Clegg can offer to 'help' the Tories but not formally enter into some kind of informal pact/alliance/whatever which is the smart move?  He can do all kinds of "In these difficult times & etc. etc. blah-blah" while working to get PR through the Commons.  Actually becoming part of the government would be, I think, a mistake.  

Which implies a Tory minority government and another election in a year or so.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 01:57:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What are the odds of the SNP joining with Labour and LibDem?  
by paving on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 02:48:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think that's a possibility, and wily old Salmond would probably do it if an SNP MP became Scottish Secretary.

But if I were Brown I'd impose a proviso that they would be replaced by someone from whichever party leads the Scottish government so if in 2011 Scotland reverts to Labour, then Labour would take back the Cabinet post.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 05:01:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Cameron couldn't win a majority against one of the least popular PMs in recent history, after the expenses scandal, bigotgate, massive spending on marginals, support from Murdoch and the gutter MSM, and last year's econo-meltdown and banking crisis.

That's the elephant in the room few people seem to be talking about.

Cameron blew it.  No escaping the fact.  He's shy of 326 seats - predicted, god knows how it will all end - and without the Lib/Dems it's hard (for me) to see how he forms a stable government.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 01:47:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In terms of the "expectations game" the clear winner tonight is actually Labour.  Tories needed a majority and LibDems needed to beat Labour.  All Labour needed to do was not get completely blown out of the frame.

They succeeded in that and now have the kingmaker role.  The UK has a situation where the current government has been partially defeated yet no other suitable victor has been established.  This means that the defeated party in power will draw up the terms of the armistice.  

Portions of the Labour platform won tonight.  I believe PR has also won.  What have the Tories won, exactly?  Their racist wing didn't get them over the top and everybody else is loathe to work with them.  Plus, the popular vote totals do not reflect a great desire for a Tory government.

by paving on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 02:19:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ideologically the Center-Left won but that's not the government the UK is going to get.

No way Conservatives and Labour form a 'National Unity' government, thus Labour can't play kingmaker.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 02:31:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the only option for Labour and the Lib Dems is to get together with regionals, for a majority and put someone other than Brown in charge.

With all of them in together they are a clear popular majority.

This will be the first real coalition government you've seen in the UK, with everybody having to work together (except the Tories, who of course would never do such a thing) to get anything done.

Will Labour give in to PR?  Maybe.

Something to consider about the LibDems is their constituency.  After introduction of PR what distinguishes them?  I suspect they are like a bee that will quickly die after using their stinger.  In a PR scenario, Labour is not necessarily condemned to a minority future.  Unless you think most of the LibDem voters will somehow go Tory.  If they were to do such a thing they would have all done it tonight.

by paving on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 02:45:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well stayed up for the Green party MP

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 12:51:14 AM EST

From the BBC:

Man, what a Tory sweep in South East England minus London.

Tory	36% 272 (+86)
Labour	29% 227 (-79)
Lib Dem  23% 48 (-7)
SNP	      6 (-)
Plaid	      3 (+1)
Other	     18 (-1)

Swing: 5.2% Lab to Con.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 02:17:52 AM EST
The LD just picked one seat from each of the other two parties.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 02:18:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Talking heads at BBC made the point if it was only England to consider the Conservatives would have won handily.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 02:26:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Tory talking heads should be careful, for they might break the UK.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 02:28:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
For the last 4 hours they've been jumping up and down screaming they have the moral right to form a government and Brown "after this <insert your favorite superlative> defeat" shouldn't be allowed to form a government and the expected blah-blah & spin.

From this side of the Atlantic it's all been quite amusing.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 02:38:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Pirrhic?

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 02:42:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How many marginal conservative victories did we have in the last decade, which were followed by their radical mandate utilization, with the "left" opposition not even willing to actually oppose?
by das monde on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 03:51:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Mostly the rural vote, though:



The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 02:30:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It looks like LibDems are getting 1% more votes, but loosing 6 seats. With 22.8% of votes, they are getting just 8.5% of seats?!

Joys of the electoral system and strategic voting...

by das monde on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 02:38:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
To have a chance of winning a seat with 23% of the vote you need either a 4-way race or a 3-seat constituency.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 04:23:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
                                        Thousand votes per seat
UK    Con    10,168,583    298    34.12
          Lab    8,236,191    248    33.21
         LD    6,435,621    51    126.19

England    Con    9,383,859    282    33.28
                Lab    6,679,336    181    36.90
                  LD    5,689,278    38    149.72


Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 05:58:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The first point is, Libdems are getting less with more votes. Their "performance" now might be quite an extreme example. It will be interesting to see the distribution (including variation) of winning percentages for each party. Labour is getting 29%, but almost 3 times more seats.
by das monde on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 06:01:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC: UK set for hung Parliament with Tories largest party
The BBC projection suggests David Cameron's Conservatives will have 306 seats. If there are 10 Unionists elected in Northern Ireland then Mr Cameron might be able to command 316 - probably still slightly too few for him to be sure of winning a Queen's Speech.

But Labour and the Lib Dems together would have 317 seats, according to the BBC figures, which even with three SDLP MPs would still leave them at 320 - again probably just a few votes short.

...

With most results in, the Lib Dem vote is up 0.9% on 2005, Labour down 6.5% and the Conservatives up 4%.



The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 02:40:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From the BBC:
UK	  CON 36.1% LAB  29.2% LD 22.9% Others 11.8% 
England   CON 39.7% LAB  28.2% LD 24.1% UKIP 3.4%
London	  CON 36.0% LAB  35.7% LD 22.0% UKIP 1.9%  
Wales	  CON 26.1% LAB  36.2% LD 20.1% PC 11.3%
Scotland  CON 16.6% LAB  42.4% LD 18.6% SNP 19.9%
N Ireland DUP 26.8% SDLP 17.1%		SF 24.0% UCU 16.3% 


The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 04:44:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm off to get my head down.

Night all.  


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 02:46:04 AM EST
Paddy Ashdown (former Lib Dem leader) on the radio.

Because Labour has lost, doesn't mean Cons have won.  No rash decisions. Being pressed very hard to declare what Lib Dems will do, but not giving way.

Tories don't have the right to assume a majority and "ram through" their manifesto.

by Sassafras on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 02:51:37 AM EST
Former Labour leader Neil Kinnock calling for PR.
by Sassafras on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 02:55:18 AM EST
I'm having trouble getting to BBC Online, seems like a morning spurt of news viewing...
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 03:29:58 AM EST
Wales has held onto 26 Labour seats, with Cons only taking 8.  I really hope that the Tories don't attempt to lead a Government, because it would spell complete disaster for Wales.
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 04:21:18 AM EST
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 04:40:21 AM EST
The need for reason
A new Conservative Government's antennae need to be on alert from day one for the 'evidence based' and 'what works' justifications for Brown's bloated state and overreaching policies.   For these cliches are symptoms of 'scientism':  the belief that science, and science alone, can deal with every aspect of human existence, described by Melanie Phillips this week. Evidence is over-rated, experience and reason underrated. These are the clues to the poisoned chalice of secular, morally unimpeachable thought that the Conservatives must avoid drinking from if they are to make real change.


Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 07:24:52 AM EST
... Jesus saves from the bloated government that comes from making decisions based on "facts" and "thinking about what is the responsible thing to do".


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 09:22:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Since when did Melanie Phillips even pretend to care about facts anyway.  I don't know anything about it but I'm right would pretty much sum up her entire argument on any issue.
by Sassafras on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 11:38:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, she doesn't sound crazy at all....

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 03:38:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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