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World Cup Predictions

by Helen Sun Jun 6th, 2010 at 03:52:11 PM EST

Okay, seems it's time to create a mothership blog to contain our ravings and predictions.

Everything kicks off with the hosts, south Africa playing Mexico on Friday June 11th and the hysteria continues until July 10th.

So usual procedure. Your predictions of who wins the groups and who makes semis and final. FIFA rankings in brackets


Group A
South Africa(83), Mexico(17), Uruguay(16), France(9)

Group B
South Korea(47), Greece(13), Argentina(7), Nigeria(21)

Group C
England(8), United States(14), Algeria(30), Slovenia(25)

Group D
Serbia(15), Ghana(32), Germany(6), Australia(20)

Group E
Holland(4), Denmark(36), Japan(45), Cameroon(19)

Group F
Italy(5), Paraguay(31), New Zealand(78), Slovakia(38)

Group G
Ivory coast(27), Portugal3), Brazil(1), North Korea(105)

Group H
Honduras(38), Chile(18), Spain(2), Switzerland(24)

then in last 16
a)  A1 vs B2
b) C1 vs D2
c) E1 vs F2
d) G1 vs H2
e) B1 vs A2
f) C2 vs D1
g) F1 vs E2
h) H1 vs G2

quarters are

  1. a vs b
  2. c vs d
  3. e vs f
  4. g vs h

Semis
1 vs 2
3 vs 4

Final predictions so far;-

Migeru : Spain vs Netherlands
Montereyan : Spain vs Brazil
Jerome a Paris :Netherlands vs S. Africa
Helen : Spain vs Portugal
Stormy Present : Argentina vs Brazil
ceebs : Spain vs England
paving : Spain vs France
Zwackus : Cameroon vs Mexico

Anyone beginning to see a trend in our predictions ?

Display:
Frankly I have no idea who's gonna win. Argentina might have won, except their manager is clueless. USA could have gone far but their manager seems to be memory challenged. Germany have lost their captain, Italy's team is too old and Brazil seem to have lost their way. The only likely team in my view is Spain.

As for England, we've just lost too many influential players. Hargreaves, Beckham and Ferdinand are out, Barry is walking wounded and may not be fit for the first game and is certainly short of match fitness. We don't have a goalkeeper who can be trusted. so we're not gonna trouble the late stages, quarter finals is the best we can hope for.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jun 6th, 2010 at 03:56:52 PM EST
This will probably be one of those World Cups where the USA should do well, but instead turns in a terrible performance. There's been a lot of controversy over some of the coach's player selections, which LA fans cruelly exploited last night. Landon Donovan and his team, the same LA Galaxy, have been on fire this season, so he will be playing with confidence going into the World Cup, which helps.

The first match, against England, will set the tone. I know what I'm doing at 10:30 Saturday morning.

And the world will live as one

by Montereyan (robert at calitics dot com) on Sun Jun 6th, 2010 at 04:42:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
to be honest, a lot of people here are very iffy about that game. We expect to qualify but we'd rather have played you lot 3rd rather than first.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jun 6th, 2010 at 05:00:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Slovenia is the team to watch in Group C
by paving on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 03:47:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Groups
A - France Mexico
B - Argentina Nigeria
C - England USA
D - Germany Serbia
E - Holland Cameroon
F - Italy Paraguay
G - Portugal Brazil
I - Spain chile

Last 16
France vs Nigeria
England vs Serbia (genuine toss up imo)
Holland vs Paraguay
Portugal vs Chile
Argentina vs Mexico
Germany vs USA
Italy vs Cameroon
Spain vs Brazil

Quarter finals
France vs England
Holland vs Portugal
Argentina vs USA
Italy vs Spain

Semi-Finals
France vs Portugal
USA vs Spain

Final
Portugal vs Spain

I know that's very predictable, mostly going with form. however my only real doubt is England vs Serbia where I reckon Serbia have a reasonable chance. Any other results would be upsets imo

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 05:23:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know much, but I think Mexico will win its group and then win again. They've at last got everything working right, or am I fooled by recent friendlies, including the 2-1 vs Italy? Even Cuauhtemoc seemed ready to contribute a little.

fairleft
by fairleft (fairleftatyahoodotcom) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 03:28:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Never base your hopes,dreams or fears on friendlies. they are for experiments and trying things out. England are shockingly bad in them, but okay in competition. I pay them no attention. Neither should you.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 03:32:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The second goal, nice pass. Okay, Italy has this 'shaking off the rust', slow-starter rep so I need to factor that in.

fairleft

by fairleft (fairleftatyahoodotcom) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 04:14:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ack, I hate those commentators who compete with each other to say gooooooal for the longest. The Brazilian guy who started it is dead, it should have stopped with him.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 04:25:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You're high if you think USA can beat Germany.
by paving on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 03:49:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
they've lost Balack who drives the team. and the USa are a tasty side.

Plus I gave all the group winners the win, so thought I should have one wild card choice.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 03:56:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Think the whole thing would be more interesting if  the Mayan Rule was adopted:

The losing team is sacrificed to the gods and the winning team gets their stuff.

That's the losing team's stuff.  Not the god's stuff.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Jun 6th, 2010 at 04:07:53 PM EST
It's happened in Columbia

Joking apart, nothing's worth that.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jun 6th, 2010 at 04:12:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You realize I was joking?

(I hope.)


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 12:49:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh yea. But his murder was pretty shocking and it's stayed with me so that, even when you make an obviously flippant and amusing comment, it reminds me.

sorry to make a downer of it.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 12:52:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I thought it was the winners that were sacrificed, and that everybody strove for a tie as a way of symbolizing the harmony of the universe, or something.
by Zwackus on Tue Jun 8th, 2010 at 02:05:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Group A: Uruguay, South Africa.
Group B: Nigeria, Argentina.
Group C: United States, England
Group D: Germany, Serbia
Group E: Netherlands (heh), Cameroon
Group F: Italy, Slovakia
Group G: Brazil, Portugal
Group H: Spain, Switzerland

Eighth-finals:
Uruguay vs. Argentina
USA vs. Serbia
Netherlands vs. Slovakia
Brazil vs. Switzerland
Nigeria vs. South Africa
Germany vs. England
Italy vs. Cameroon
Spain vs. Portugal

Quarter-finals:
Argentina vs. Serbia
Netherlands vs. Brazil
South Africa vs. England
Cameroon vs. Spain

Semi-finals:
Serbia vs. Netherlands
South Africa vs. Spain

Final:
Netherlands vs. Spain

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 6th, 2010 at 05:04:05 PM EST
Your group A prediction is "brave". But that's a good call on Serbia.

And England don't beat Germany (except in '66). As Gary Linker once said "Soccer is a game for 22 people that run around, play the ball, and one referee who makes a slew of mistakes, and in the end Germany always wins". I think that's burnt into our psyche now, if we play Germany, we've lost before we walk on the pitch.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jun 6th, 2010 at 05:12:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
South Africa is the host and can be safely bet on to reach the knock-out stage.

France didn't impress on their qualification, to say the least, and Uruguay can be carried past the group stage by Forlán.

I don't know much about Mexico. No news is bad news...

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 6th, 2010 at 05:22:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
England don't beat Germany except (since the 1990 game that prompted Lineker to say that)
  • 2-1 in the last friendly in 2008
  • 5-1 in Munich in a 2002 World Cup qualifying game
  • 1-0 in Charleroi in the Euro 2000


By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 6th, 2010 at 06:46:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Friendlies don't count.

The 5-1 is a legend that will live until the end of time, but was played against their Z-team, probably the worst 11 that have ever played for Germany.

I'd forgotten Charleroi, but exceptions prove the rule

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 04:58:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Which is to say, I don't think it is possible to describe the trauma of the two great losses to Germany which haunt us to this day.

Mexico 1970, 2-0 up with 10 minutes to go and cruising. Germany scored twice to take it to extra time and then we lost to a Gerd Muller goal 3-2. The 70s were a barren decade for England, I don't think we qualified for anything.

Italia 1990. Losing on penalties to Germany, having drawn 2-2 after extra time.

Believe me. Every England fan has those images seared on their soul. The thought of playing Germany gives up the yips now.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 05:06:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You do realise 1990 was 20 years ago - there will be players on the pitch who were not even born then, and many who were not old enough to watch football...

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 05:20:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is a country that still celebrates 1966 as if it was yesterday, clings to it as a lost Golden Age of Heroes. That was hubris and Germany is always Nemesis.

Football culture is as much breathed in as experienced. The young fear the inevitability of German victory because their parents and grand-parents do.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 05:28:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, true, that's a country that still considers WWII as the only historical fact worth knowing about for eight-year-olds.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 05:41:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hence the defiant if ludicrous terrace chant "two world wars and one world cup".

Everybody knows the way history is taught in schools here is ignorant, stupid and reactionary, but no politician will risk the wrath of the Daily Mail to change it.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 05:58:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's England you're talking about. My recollection of school in Scotland is that the only historical fact worth knowing about was the massacre at Culloden.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 06:17:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh the one fact that every Welsh schoolchild comes out with is at best Wrong, That Wales was invaded by the English (Having sat through far too many history teachers rants about the curriculum)

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 03:27:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
huh ? I thought it was as well.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 03:30:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No its the Normans who Invade before they've completed the conquest of the north of England apparently.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 03:41:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, it's a moot point about when the Normans became English. Probably not till the Lancasters in 1400s. That's long past Longshanks stomping Scotland

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 03:53:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, WWII was only won last week wasn't it? By Britain alone? With the US and Russia watching from the sidelines?


-----
sapere aude
by Number 6 on Tue Jun 8th, 2010 at 07:45:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Spain is currently a counterexample, by the way...

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 06:02:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nothing as dramatic as Sevilla '82 though...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 05:26:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What ? Schumacker's assault on Battiston ? That wasn't a foul, that was an arrestable offense. I don't think there's a person in the world outside Germany who didn't think he deserved to be sent off

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 05:38:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That, and the game itself, leading 3-1 in overtime...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 05:59:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
last 16
a)  France vs Greece
b) England vs Serbia
c) Netherlands vs Paraguay
d) Brazil vs Switzerland
e) Argentina vs South Africa
f) Algeria vs Germany
g) Italy vs Denmark
h) Spain vs Portugal

quarters are
France vs Serbia
Netherlands vs Brazil
South Africa vs Germany
Denmark vs Spain

Semis
France vs Netherlands
South Africa vs Spain

Final
Netherlands vs South Arica

Winner: Netherlands

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 6th, 2010 at 05:23:30 PM EST
You seem to subscribe to the "this thing is rigged" perspective.  South Africa is, um, not good.
by paving on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 04:16:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Mine:

Group A: Mexico, South Africa.
Group B: Argentina, Nigeria
Group C: England, USA
Group D: Germany, Serbia
Group E: Netherlands, Cameroon
Group F: Italy, Paraguay
Group G: Brazil, Portugal
Group H: Spain, Chile

Eighth-finals:
Mexico vs. Nigeria
England vs. Serbia
Netherlands vs. Paraguay
Brazil vs. Chile
Argentina vs. South Africa
Germany vs. USA
Italy vs. Cameroon
Spain vs. Portugal

Quarter-finals:
Nigeria vs. England
Netherlands vs. Brazil
Argentina vs. Germany
Cameroon vs. Spain

Semi-finals:
England vs. Brazil
Germany vs. Spain

Final:
Brazil vs. Spain

And the world will live as one

by Montereyan (robert at calitics dot com) on Sun Jun 6th, 2010 at 06:08:32 PM EST
U! S! A!
U! S! A!

We will leave you all in the dust.

by asdf on Sun Jun 6th, 2010 at 06:37:25 PM EST
And, by that, we mean we'll be kicking dust at you all in frustration when we go out in the first group.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 04:46:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
could win the World Cup and football soccer would still be a 3rd tier sport in the States.
by Magnifico on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 04:18:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If USA won the World Cup then the media would proceed to tell everyone that Soccer is the greatest sports, etc.  Enough media attention and things will turn.  

That said, USA should be happy to get out of group stage.  Do I need to remind people that a hungover-Italy spotted them a goal last time around, the only goal USA managed besides one against Ghana.

by paving on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 04:29:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'll give predictions a shot later after I have a look at the teams.  We'll see if my World Cup picks can be any worse than my NCAA Basketball picks. :)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 04:47:15 AM EST
Beer and football both fail to inspire any passion in me. Sorry.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 05:15:03 AM EST
that's fine. but you're wrong ;-))

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 05:39:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I know, I know. But I'll stick to wine and backgammon thank you ;-)

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 05:46:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
My predictions are:

  1. Alberto Contador

  2. Andy Schleck

  3. Bradly Wiggins

This year Andy will be closer to Conta on the mountains, but the Spaniard shall kill all opposition against the clock.

Bradley will be better this year on time-trials, which should give him a more comfortable strategy in the mountains defending himself.

I don't count on corruptors making anything visible this time.

Vive le Tour!

You might find me At The Edge Of Time.

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]a[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]gmail[dot]com) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 05:55:44 AM EST
Have to agree, Contador looks strong - can't see anyone managing to break him in the mountains.

I hope Wiggins does well, but I'm still concerned about a big crack on one of the mountain stages...

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 06:44:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bradley is not someone who cracks in the mountains, there may just be some climbs that are to steep for his weight. In the Pyrenees he'll likely loose some time to smaller men, but should get back on the time-trial.

You might find me At The Edge Of Time.
by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]a[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]gmail[dot]com) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 10:10:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't have time to flesh out right now...

My gut says Argentina may come good... but I don't think they'll win it all.

Spain should make the final, depending on the draw.

But every time I've seen Brazil play over the last year, they've looked like the team that will win.

England have potential - Capello's organisation could get them further than usual, but one more injury and they could collapse really badly..

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 06:43:28 AM EST
Brazil's path depends on whether they or Portugal come first in their group, cos the second place team will play Spain. Unless Spain have a catastrophic collapse they should beat either of them and then face the other in the final

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 06:56:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Mine:

A: Mexico, France
B: Greece, Argentina
C: England, United States
D: Serbia, Germany
E: Holland, Cameroon
F: Italy, Paraguay
G: Portugal, Brazil
H: Chile, Spain

last 16
a)  France v Greece
b) England v Serbia
c) Cameroon v Paraguay
d) Brazil v Chile
e) Argentina v Mexico
f) USA v Germany
g) Italy v Holland
h) Spain v Portugal

quarters

   1. France v England
   2. Cameroon v Brazil
   3. Argentina v USA (sorry guys)
   4. Italy v Spain

Semis
France v Brazil
Argentina v Spain

Final: Argentina v Brazil

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 03:25:03 PM EST
Hmmm, I didn't put the group results in order.  I knew I'd screw something up.
by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 03:27:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Groups
A - France South Africa
B - Argentina Nigeria
C - England USA
D - Germany Serbia
E - Holland Cameroon
F - Italy Paraguay
G - Portugal Brazil
I - Spain chile

Last 16
France vs Nigeria
England vs Serbia (genuine toss up imo)
Holland vs Paraguay
Portugal vs Chile
Argentina vs South Africa
Germany vs USA
Italy vs Cameroon
Spain vs Brazil

Quarter finals
England vs France
Holland vs Portugal
Argentina vs USA
Spain vs Italy

Semi-Finals
England vs Holland
Spain vs Argentina

Final
Spain vs England ( just to wind the national psyche till it snaps England lose on Penalties)

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 03:38:16 PM EST
Group A: France, Uruguay
Group B: Argentina, Nigeria
Group C: England, Slovenia
Group D: Serbia, Germany
Group E: Netherlands, Cameroon
Group F: Italy, Slovakia
Group G: Brazil, Portugal
Group H: Spain, Chile

a) France over Nigeria
b) Germany over England
c) Netherlands over Slovakia
d) Brazil over Chile
e) Uruguay over Argentina
f) Slovenia over Serbia
g) Cameroon over Italy
h) Spain over Portugal

  1. France over Germany
  2. Brazil over Netherlands
  3. Slovenia over Uruguay
  4. Spain over Cameroon

Semi) France over Brazil

Semi) Spain over Slovenia

Final: Spain over France

by paving on Mon Jun 7th, 2010 at 03:58:47 PM EST
may go further than people expect this time around. with any luck, they might even meet each other in the quarterfinals.
by wu ming on Tue Jun 8th, 2010 at 12:37:00 AM EST
I know nothing about . . . erm, football?  Not soccer, right?

I've not even watched a single game start to finish.  However, a set of brackets was once put in front of me, and I started making picks according to not much at all.

I can't remember most of them, but I have Cameroon versus Mexico in the finals.  It was not a good season for developed countries, with France and Germany going out in the first round.

by Zwackus on Tue Jun 8th, 2010 at 02:09:20 AM EST
Would you be interested in the World Cup analyzes of the financial giants Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, UBS? Those quant boys apparently have nothing better to do than to model the championship.

You can find links to the PDF files of their analyzes via this article.

by das monde on Thu Jun 10th, 2010 at 11:25:26 AM EST
das monde:
Those quant boys apparently have nothing better to do than to model the championship.
For two reasons: one, since you can bet on the outcome and they're in the business of punting...; two, a lot of these quants were hired to invent complex derivatives. Since 2007 there has been, among other effects, a flight to simplicity so there isn't as much work to do selling or even inventing new complex derivatives...

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 10th, 2010 at 11:27:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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