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Swedish election - result thread

by A swedish kind of death Mon Sep 20th, 2010 at 01:16:57 AM EST

I wrote the basic intro earlier and Starvid wrote about scenarios after the election.

Last SIFO (big poller, calls many and calls them fast) conducted 15th and 16th gives 49.9% for the Alliance and 45.3% for the RedGreens, and Sverigedemokraterna just outside parliament. This is a big increase for the RedGreens over a few days, if the trend continued during 17-19th of September we have an interesting night tonight.

next-day front-paged by afew


Contrary to earlier elections the campaign has continued even today, which might have interesting consequences. Or not.

The polls close at eight, and public service television will release their exit polls soon after. Election results will be posted at the site of valmyndigheten as poll stations finish their (preliminary) counting. By midnight everything is usually settled, though some polling stations might still be counting.

The final count starts tomorrow when all ballots are recounted, preference votes on candidates are counted, votes are counted for parties that are not assumed to get enough to influence the result (for example the Pirate party), handwritten votes are interpreted etc. That count has to be done by wednesday, but is generally released during Tuesday.

Display:
There is some extra Finnish interest this time round, in that Maria Wetterstrand's husband is Ville Niinistö, who is a Green MP (and vice-chair of the party) and member of Åbo city council.

He is also the nephew of Sauli Niinistö, current speaker of Finnish Eduskunta, former Minister of Finance and a shoo-in for President (though he has repeatedly excluded himself). In the fairly clean political world of Finland (if there is any money sloshing around it's chump change), Sauli Niinistö is squeaky clean and highly competent. While Ville is green and Sauli is blue, I'd be interested to know how much influence the uncle has had.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 09:50:29 AM EST
votes are counted for parties that are not assumed to get enough to influence the result (for example the Pirate party)

Huh!? On first count, those are just laid to the side or what?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 10:36:36 AM EST
Kind of, they are counted as "others", the total number of which is reported.

This is to facilitate faster counting in light of Swedish election law that allows for parties to run a pure write-in campaign on blank ballots (the theoretical limit of number of parties is the same as number of voters). So the line is kind of arbitrarily drawn based on poll numbers. Of course as a member of the Pirate Party I think it is sad not to get our numbers tonight, but I see the practical need for it to be a line.

It does not affect the actual result. Note that tonights count is only preliminary and all ballots are recounted.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 11:00:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The pre-voting laws also allow for votes that were sent before the election day, which means that all parties receive more votes after the preliminary count. This rarely changes much, though I remember in 1994 when the Christian democrats had 3.9% on election night and it was somewhat interesting to see if they would make it (they did, but there was a clear victory for the left anyway).

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 11:07:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
To see an example, last years EP-election eleven parties were counted on election night. If you follow this link Röster - Val 2009 and scroll down to:
Röster på partier som ej beställt valsedlar

You find the list of all "parties" that received at least one vote. Libertas with 97 votes is among the bigger. Note that Libertas Sverige also gets 32 votes and LIBERTAS another 13. Liberitas is further down with 4 votes. If they had at least managed to register a party name they would have gotten a whopping 146 votes, since if there is a registered party with a similar name, the counters interpret the handwritten vote. Toknazism hela dagen (Crazy Nazism all day) got as usual one vote.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 11:20:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is nothing compared with what may happen in Alaska in November. Lisa Murkowski has just announced that she will run as a write-in. It's hard to know what impact she will have, as there aren't exactly many precedents for an incumbent running as a write-in, but imagine the fun counting lots of write-in votes for a candidate with a name nobody can spell...
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 12:46:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Got to spell it correctly, after all.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue Sep 21st, 2010 at 06:19:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A clear majority for the government parties? Or not?

Looks like we might be back to the six scearii...

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 02:21:27 PM EST
Sverigedemokraterna doing much better than 2006, doubled their vote (so far) to 6%.

Socialdemokraterna is running 6% behind 2006 and almost 10% behind 2002.  They are still the largest party but no longer the commanding party.  

Miljöpartiet de gröna is doing a modicum (1.7%) better than 2006 but aren't making-up the ground lost by the Social Democrats.

The big winner is Moderata Samlingspartiet gaining 7%.  But with the losses to the Center and Christian Democrat parties the Alliance is only a little over 2% their 2006 total.

So far, the 2010 turnout is 6.9% below 2006  (74.1% versus 81.1%.)  Which is ... interesting; in the US the lower the turn-out the better the Right does so they have gotten rather good at depressing the vote.  Wonder if Alliance has 'taken a lesson' from the GOP.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 02:52:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: 2010 turn-out is now up over 2006 so ... My Bad.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 02:55:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
and do the Grand Coalition thing. Suicidal, but historically apt.

And they might just be clueless enough to to it.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 02:56:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If the bigot SD vote stays around 7% I don't think Alliance can form a government without them.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 02:58:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Holy shit.

SD vote just jumped to 7.3%!

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 02:53:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Only 249 (4%) of 5668 electoral districts have been counted.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 03:02:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At this stage, the exit polls are going to be a better predictor than the early returns, which are always biased due to the nature of districts that can be counted quickly.

where are you getting the raw results?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 03:18:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
From a swedish kind of death's link to Valnatt.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 03:23:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
849 of 5668 election districts have reported which is only 15% and we need to wait for another 400, or so, to get an idea of how this thing is going.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 03:17:48 PM EST
The Local | Alliance miss majority as far-right voted in: poll

Swedish voters narrowly re-elected the governing centre-right Alliance coalition, but stopped short of giving it another majority, while the far-right Sweden Democrats were voted into parliament for the first time.

Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt's coalition government won 49.1 percent of the vote, while the left-wing opposition won 45.1 percent of the vote, with the Sweden Democrats garnered 4.6 percent, enough to enter parliament, exit polls by Swedish public television company SVT showed.

If the poll accurately reflects the final result, the Greens would be the third-largest party in parliament with 9 percent of support, up 3.8 percent, followed by the Liberal Party (7.2 percent), Centre Party (7.1 percent), both of whom lost support by less than a percentage point, and the Left Party at 6.1 percent. Support for the Christian Democrats also slipped to 5.7 percent.




She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 03:21:31 PM EST
I can see your library will be moving to Sweden ;-)

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 03:36:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The fact Sweden doesn't require mandatory saunas every other day was a big factor in the decision.

;-)


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 03:39:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As if I had ever proposed such a thing! The Karolinska Institute will welcome you with open arms. But when you want to have fun, we are just an overnight floating gambling palace away ;-)

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 03:53:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, get your BFF at VTT to offer us a contact.  

I'm open to Sweden or Finland.  My partner is pushing for Denmark ... but who wants to live with a bunch of co-operating pork packers?  

:-)

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 04:01:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
M - 28.6%
C - 7.6%
FP - 6.5%
KD - 5.8%
S -  3.21%
V - 5.3%
MP -6.5%
SD - 6.5%


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 03:32:42 PM EST
Alliance = 48.6%
Left Block = 43.7%


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 03:35:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
oh bother

s/b S = 32.1%

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 03:37:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
and percentages stay roughly the same.

I'm wondering where the Greens are going to pick-up that 3% exit polling gave 'em.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 03:43:20 PM EST
Looks like this will be the worst election return for the Social Democrats since the 1920s.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 03:48:09 PM EST
Claes Bergström, Social Democratic spokesperson for equality issues, says "An unbelievably huge disappointment."

The entire upper echelon of the Social Democrats needs to be taken quietly by the hand and tossed in a dustbin.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 04:20:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Arguably, it's the entire Social Democratic Party that needs to be taken quietly by the hand and tossed in a dustbin.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 04:41:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As of today it is the worst election for the Social Democrats since 1914.  

Still counting votes and this may change ... but most likely not.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Sep 21st, 2010 at 01:06:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
M - 29.4%
C - 7.1%
FP - 6.8%
KD - 5.7%
S -  31.3%
V - 5.4%
MP -6.9%
SD - 6.1%

Alliance = 49%
Left Block = 43.6%

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 03:51:52 PM EST
From The Local:

SVT's Exit Poll:

Moderates: 29.1 percent
Liberals: 7.2
Centre Party: 7.1
Christian Democrats: 5.7
Social Democrats: 30.0
Left Party: 6.1
Greens: 9.0
Sweden Democrats: 4.6
Others: 1.2

TV4's Exit Poll:

Moderates: 27.2 percent
Liberals: 6.9
Centre Party: 7.0
Christian Democrats: 7.1
Social Democrats: 32.7
Left Party: 5.9
Greens: 7.8
Sweden Democrats: 4.1
Others: 1.3

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 03:55:07 PM EST
every five minutes or so.

Saw the Greens overtake the Swedish Xenocraps in real time (now 7.1 to 5.9 and pulling away), and they have now overtaken the Centrists and the Folkies too, to be officially number 3.

This tells us something about the sociology/distribution of the Green vote. I guess it's the big cities that report first; their vote rises as the smaller towns and country districts are counted... does that sound right?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 04:03:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know.  

Looking at the regional numbers it appears all areas of the country are coming in at about the same rate.  The laggard at 79% is Gotenborg, but I've got no clue what that implies/means.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 04:10:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Malmo is now behind in the count.  I'm thinking that is a Swedish Democrat "stronghold" and, because of the immigrant population there, could boost the Social Democrats as well.

?

But I really can't say, for sure.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 04:23:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So far Malmo is going

M - 33%
S - 28%

but the SD are doing better than nationwide with 8.1% and so are the Greens with 8.7%, 161 out of 176 reporting.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 04:33:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This tells us something about the sociology/distribution of the Green vote. I guess it's the big cities that report first; their vote rises as the smaller towns and country districts are counted... does that sound right?

It's the other way around. Rural districts are generally smaller (in terms of votes) in Sweden, and so tend to report first. What this seems to indicate is that the Greens are an urban party, which is entirely unsurprising.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 04:44:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Alliance has 49.3%
Left Block 43.4

Swedish Democrats holding the balance for the Alliance with 5.9%.  

This is going to be tight.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 04:06:42 PM EST
SVT seat projection:

155 Red-Greens
174 Alliance
20 Sweden Democrats

Meaning the Alliance is 1 seat short of a majority.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 04:15:40 PM EST
Damn this thing is close.

Less than a point swing in the few remaining districts could tilt the election giving Alliance a one seat majority.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 05:02:50 PM EST
Victory to the centre-right, but no absolute majority. The government stays, but will face very serious challenges on certain issues. For example, this election result probably means the end of the Swedish intervention in Afghanistan.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 05:03:06 PM EST
The Swedish Democrats came in on the high side of the estimate, we talked about a week ago, gaining 2.8% over 2006.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 05:55:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Unless something bizzaro happens in the few remaining districts:

Alliance:

Lost 6 seats:

Moderata Samlingspartiet + 10 for 107
Centerpartiet -7 for 22
Kristdemokraterna -5 for 19
Folkpartiet liberalerna - 4 for 24

Left Block:

Lost 14 seats:

Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna -17 for 113
Vänsterpartiet  - 3 for 19
Miljöpartiet de gröna + 6 for 25 and became the 3rd largest party in the Riksdag

The big winner was the Sverigedemokraterna who went from no seats to 20 and increased their vote from 2.9% to 5.7%.  They also, I'm guessing, effectively blocked Alliance from maintaining their majority as they went from 178 to 172.

From the Usual Suspect:

Moderate Party leader and prime minister Fredrik Reinfeldt said he plans to approach the Green Party for support in forming a government and he "hopes they are responsive" to his overtures.

Although earlier this evening:

Green Party co-spokesman Peter Eriksson reiterated that his party will not work with the Alliance to form a majority government, but left the door open for possible cooperation with the Liberal and Centre Parties, calling them "natural" partners.

"It is not realistic," Eriksson told The Local after he and co-spokeswoman Maria Wetterstrand addressed the rapturous crowd at the party's election headquarters on Sunday. "We have very good politics with the Red-Green parties. There is a very big difference with the Alliance."

The Liberal, Center, and Greens have a total of 71 seats so they provide the majority for either the Moderate or Social Democrats to form a government.  

Meanwhile, the Moderate Party is screwed as long as the Greens refuse to join the coalition.  Alliance doesn't have the seats unless they rope in the Swedish Democrats AND keep the Center AND Liberals in the coalition.  From what I'm reading: Lot's o' Luck.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 06:23:55 PM EST
Have to say the post-analysis will have me ROTFLMAO if it turns-out a blogger was the cause for the downfall of the Alliance.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 06:42:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One thing that can happen is for the Alliance to form a minority government and get votes from the Swedish Democrats for a budget and so on.

Just about the best scenario for the Swed-Dems as they can claim credit for whatever good happens and always fall back on, "WE weren't in the government!"  

From an outsider's perspective, the Liberal and Center party leaders would have to be out of their minds to go this route.  They would get beaten-up for whatever bad things happened AND they would be seen as allying with the Swed-Dems, simultaneously pushing both their Right and Left wings away from the party.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 07:15:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Alliance will stay on, no matter if they can convince the Greens to join them or not. They might not be able to push all the laws they want through parliament, but unless Sverigedemokraterna votes for the joint Red-green budget, or joins them in a vote to fire the government, the Alliance will reign on.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Mon Sep 20th, 2010 at 05:04:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
With the extra-government support of the Sweden Democrats they can form a Minority government.  They've got a major hole since Center Party is a pro-immigrant party and the SDs main attraction is being an anti-immigrant party; the Alliance needs both to govern.

How long will the SDs be willing to support a government they don't get anything out of and continues a policy it is their whole purpose to change?    

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Sep 20th, 2010 at 11:56:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
My prediction is that the Center Party will be told to sit down and shut up in order to get the racists on board. And they'll probably comply.

They won't survive that in the polls, of course, but if they had any inclination to value partisan survival above the interests of their bloc, they wouldn't have let themselves become so firmly installed in the Moderates' back pocket. Being kingmakers is the raison d'etre for parties like the Center Party. Aligning, or being forced to align, with one bloc or the other ahead of time suffocates them in the same way trying to out-Thatcher the Tories suffocates a Social Democratic party.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Sep 20th, 2010 at 01:42:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Center party is not more pro-immigration than any of the other centre-right parties.

On Wednesday the final count will be completed. Until then we'll see posturing, but nothing else. Then the real bargaining will start. This might last about two weeks, until parliament opens.

Right now there are only two options: either the Greens join the Alliance in government, or the Alliance will go it alone and damn the torpedoes. They probably feel pretty comfortable with that, even if they won't be able to win all the sessions in parliament.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Mon Sep 20th, 2010 at 03:34:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm sure the Moderate Party is happy to follow that strategy.

X-ref: JakeS' comment, above, I don't quite see why the Center or Liberal Parties have to go along if they can cut a better deal.  Either with the Social Democrats -- who are, after all, still the largest party -- or the Moderates since the Greens, Center, and Liberal parties, together, control the next government.  The last two may have wedded themselves so firmly, tactically or ideologically, to the Moderate controlled Alliance that they can't wiggle out, I don't know the answer to either question.  

The Center and Liberals have an "out" since they can always claim they are not going to be in a government that relies on the Swedish Democrats.  How far & well can that Play?  shrug Don't know.

In fact the entirety of my ignorance is stunning.

:-)

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Sep 20th, 2010 at 06:53:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't quite see why the Center or Liberal Parties have to go along if they can cut a better deal.
Partly because of bloc solidarity, partly because it would screw up the 2014 elections, partly because the leadership of both parties really dislike the Soc-dems, and partly because they would never cooperate with the former communist party, whom they consider to be about as nice as the Sweden Democrats.

Another thing to remember is that the Center party is the greatest opponent of the Greens joining the centre-right, as they would occupy basically the same niche. And as the Center party kinda lacks ideology, does its best to alienate its core voters and generally just is an organisation with $300 million fortune who wants to secure jobs for its leading party members... well.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Mon Sep 20th, 2010 at 07:02:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If the Swedish Democrats abstain in a vote, does 172 to 157 count as a majority, or is it still a plurality?

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 21st, 2010 at 07:16:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
When voting for the budget, it's enough. When it comes to other laws, I think it's enough. Some decades ago we had a minority government with only 39 mandates, and they got their laws through because of the soc dems voted neither yes nor no. If I recall correctly.

Anyway, I think the basic principle in the Swedish parliament is that you don't need the support of a majority of the votes, you just need to make sure you have more votes than your opponent.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Tue Sep 21st, 2010 at 09:02:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Then I don't see how it can be argued that an Alliance government would support itself on the Swedish Democrats...

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 21st, 2010 at 09:11:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The centre-left can block any Alliance policy if they join with the Sweden Democrats. Hence, they can threaten to bring the government down over things like Afghanistan and the budget, or if a motion of no confidence is launched.

SD might extract a political price from the Alliance for the promise not to do any of these things. But all this requires that SD forms a united front with the left on these issues.

On the other hand, if SD in any way pull the government down, they're taking a huge risk. On one hand they might well get more mandates after a new election, as they would get access to media in an entirely new way (censorship and discrimination against them has been widespread during this election).

On the downside, they might be seen as the people who caused the crisis and be punished by the voters for this. They might even be voted out of parliament, which would be an absolute disaster, as parliament is their ticket to the media, and to huge sums of government money the will recieve as party entitlements.

So it's a game of chicken.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Tue Sep 21st, 2010 at 09:31:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
is that they are hostages to the far right.

For example : they vote against the Alliance government's budget. Normal. That's what an opposition does. And if the SD vote against the budget too... ? (something the left have no control over). Then the left have united with the SD to bring the government down!


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Sep 21st, 2010 at 10:15:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No. In that scenario, it's the SD who bring the government down. The opposition votes against the budget because there is a realistic chance of toppling the government by doing so: That's what opposition parties do. SD, on the other hand, have a choice in the matter, because they are only halfway in opposition.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Sep 21st, 2010 at 02:57:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Currently we don't know if they're in opposition or not. But if they won't get anything from the Alliance, which they're unlikely to get, at least initially, they'll be just as much in opposition as the Red-greens. Indeed, they might be considered to be more in opposition than the Red-greens, if the other parties band together to marginalize them completely in parliament.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Wed Sep 22nd, 2010 at 04:09:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They're a right-wing party. There's a right-wing government. Unless they actively help bring down that government, they are not in opposition. And any troubles the right-wing government gets out of it will be ascribed to their unwillingness to contain the inherently racist elements in their base (in the left-wing narrative), right-wing infighting (in the centrist narrative) or the Swedish Democrats [sic] being a spoiler party that creates a lame duck government (in the right-wing narrative, see the US Democrats' attitude towards Nader for Cliff's Notes).

You are essentially proposing that a cordon sanitaire narrative is going to be turned into a grand coalition narrative. The only people to really benefit from that would be the Swedish Democrats [sic]: It would be disastrous for the Left bloc - all the pain of being in a grand coalition without even the limited and temporary gains. And it would be an embarrassment for the right-wing bloc, since going from being in government to being in a grand coalition is something you do after you lose an election (see Germany for precedent). So that is no not going to be easy, though no doubt the racist party and their prostituted journalists will try their worst.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Sep 22nd, 2010 at 06:33:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Your argument rests on the Sweden Democrats being a right-wing party. They aren't. They're right-wing on values issues, and left-wing on economic issues. The blessing of being a populist...

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Thu Sep 23rd, 2010 at 05:51:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We'll see.

Ugly parties like to promise ponies for everyone on the economic front. But when the wheel hits the rail and they actually have to cast votes, they tend to toe the right-wing line. Because they normally care more about not liking brown people than about economic policy, so the latter is where they sell out.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Sep 23rd, 2010 at 06:33:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Because they normally care more about not liking brown people than about economic policy, ...

Let's see. Promote a policy that creates wealth or a policy that screws the darkies? Yeah, choice two.

Beautiful.

They tried to assimilate me. They failed.

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Thu Sep 23rd, 2010 at 06:38:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Indeed Hitler's party was called National Socialist German Workers' Party with the express intent to pull the working class away from the communists and social democrats, but most people won't dispute its classification on the right (not so crazy libertarians).

But, there is more to this than campaign vs. policies. This modern Western sense of what constitutes economic rigt and economic left is too narrow. Most right-wing governments around the world in the last two centuries were rather illiberal on the economy, and policies included, not without opposition from liberals of the day, semi-Keynesian state spending programmes (say, railways or city renewals) and state paternalism (say, the origins of the welfare state under Bismarck) which are now commonly attributed to the economic left.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Sep 24th, 2010 at 02:55:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The result for the Pirate Party is, well, crappy. Parliament results look similar to 2006 - about 0.6-0.7% (from exit polls).

Does not look like we will pick up any local seat either. Around 1% in strong cities (ie university towns) and about 2-3% is needed for a seat. Crap crap.

And those damn racists got into parliament, meaning that we will get stuff like burka-bans suggested by the other parties in futile attempts to steal their votes. Crap crap crap.

Gotta sleep now.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Sun Sep 19th, 2010 at 06:29:52 PM EST
Perhaps being a liberal in a sea of right-wing nut cakes is the reason I find politics (no matter what country it seems) so unsettling these days. I would have thought the Pirate Party would have been the big winner here, based on their principle of preserving privacy protections for people, and I'm both surprised and disappointed that this wasn't the case. I was really hoping to see a forward-thinking Green-Pirate government in place. Guess I just live on the wrong planet for the time.
by sgr2 on Wed Sep 22nd, 2010 at 09:15:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Still a bunch of votes to count.

... election officials don't know exactly how many advance Riksdag ballots have been cast, but there were around 100,000 in the last election in 2006.

Currently, the Alliance coalition needs 7,100 more votes to attain an overall majority of votes cast. If the centre-right would receive, say, 60,000 of around 100,000 outstanding uncounted ballots, then they would have an overall majority in the number of votes.



She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Sep 21st, 2010 at 12:20:55 PM EST
Looks like Alliance has picked-up another seat from the mail-in and overseas vote making them two short of an absolute majority.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Sep 22nd, 2010 at 12:35:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And there seems to have been certain errors in the province of Värmland. People are talking about new elections in Värmland. The winds of Florida 2000 are ablowin'...

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Thu Sep 23rd, 2010 at 05:54:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If so, the obvious question is which side is your Supreme Court on?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Sep 23rd, 2010 at 06:00:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Supreme Court has no role in this. In Sweden the executive branch overrules the courts. Probably because of monarchy.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Thu Sep 23rd, 2010 at 06:14:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Värmland went 50.2% Left Block, 43.9% Alliance.

I'm reading it is an individual who filed the protest.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 23rd, 2010 at 01:22:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is possible - though not likely - that Värmland alone will have a re-election for their 12 seats. Has not happened since the 50ies.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Fri Sep 24th, 2010 at 07:33:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm reading it is an individual who filed the protest.

Hold the Election!

Now the Liberals have jumped on the bandwagon.

The Liberal Party (Folkpartiet), which lost two seats in the Riksdag by a razor thin margin, is looking to appeal the results of Sweden's 2010 elections.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri Sep 24th, 2010 at 11:26:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
to be learned from coalition politics in New Zealand. I'm not suggesting that there's anything to emulate but...

NZ's 120 seat parliament is elected in a system somewhat similar to Sweden's (PR with a 5% cut-off)

There hasn't been a one-party majority for a while. There have been colourful and entertaining negotiations, generally involving centrist parties changing camps. The last election was close, and the current government is a strikingly odd coalition : the main right-wing party with a small far-right coalition partner, and a confidence-and-supply agreement with the Maori Party. They had been part of the left bloc, and sold out in exchange for some specific policy areas. (the Greens had half-heartedly considered some sort of arrangement, but it was never going to fly)

Just saying...

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Sep 21st, 2010 at 12:34:58 PM EST
Oddly, the Australian result, with a Full Preference Single Member Constituency governing house, ended up with similar. 76 for confidence, the Labor party with 72, the Liberal / National Coalition with 72 (the Liberals and Nationals merged in some states, ran in coalition in others, ran out of coalition in Western Austalia), an Independent National and a Green cancelling each other out to 73:73, and four independents deciding the government, one an independent from a Labor leaning Tassie seat elected from third position with Liberal preferences, one the largest Queensland seat in tropical North Queensland, and two Northern NSW Country independents.

Three independents decided to vote confidence and supply for Labor, so they formed government, but the votes to pass anything have to be patched together from Greens, the various union-supported Labor factions, two socially liberal, fiscally conservative independents, one each from notionally Labor and Coalition constituencies, and a fairly socially and fiscally conservative pragmatist who thinks the country will get better broadband internet service from the Labor party.

Its quite a sieve to get policy through.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue Sep 21st, 2010 at 08:15:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue Sep 21st, 2010 at 09:10:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ran across an article in href="http://www.fokus.se/">Fokus En tid som flytt by Anna Ritter.  Her main thesis is there has been a shift in emphasis between two fundamental values in Sweden (apologies for the Google Swedlish):

Deras slutsats är att svenskarna inte gillar kollektivism. Tvärtom, säger de, har Sverige och socialdemokratins politiska projekt byggt på att man tillåtit individer att vara starka och solitära, men hänvisat till dessa fria bönders känsla för jämlikhet och rättvisa och på det sättet legitimerat den starka staten.Their conclusion is that the Swedes do not like collectivism. On the contrary, they say, Sweden and the social democratic political project built on that allowed individuals to be strong and solitary, but refers to the free farmers' sense of equality and justice and thus legitimated the strong State.
Handlade det här valet - och socialdemokraternas misslyckande - inte allra mest om arbetsmoral?

Den där etiken som de skötsamma arbetarna i arbetarrörelsen vurmade. Svenskarna tror ju, enligt flera opinionsundersökningar, att grannen bidragsfuskar. Dessutom avskyr de det. Mer stöd från staten - i form av åtgärder från arbetsförmedlingen eller rena bidrag - tvivlar de på.
Det arbetsmoraliska draget har kanske blivit större än den solidariska jämlikhetstanken?

Was this election - and the Social Democrats' failure - not most of the work ethic?

That ethic has pushed the same workers in the labor movement passion. The Swedes think of course, according to several polls, the nearest neighbor contribution is cheating. In addition, they abhor it. More support from the state - in the form of action by the employment office or pure premium - they have doubts on.
The Rules of moral move may have been greater than the solidarity idea of equality?

If this is true the Left Block is screwed in a couple of different ways, along several different axises.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Sep 22nd, 2010 at 12:31:18 PM EST


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