Much of this is gesticulation. Sarkozy already knows he is up against the Council of Europe, the European Commission, the European Parliament, and France's own Conseil Constitutionnel, that will in all likelihood pronounce aspects of the anti-burka law or of any legislation tending to create a second-class category of French citizens as contrary to the constitution; and above the French constitution come EU community treaties and the European Convention on Human Rights. It's equally clear that nothing (legal) can prevent Romanians or Bulgarians who have been "returned" to their countries from heading straight back to France, which is their right under EU treaties.

But, from a communications point of view, lines have been crossed. France's universalist pretensions have been dragged in Vichy-style mud by the proposal from the highest guarantor of the Constitution that French citizenship for foreign-born people should be a separate and inferior category. Words have become acts in the dismantling of gypsy camps and the flights to Romania. A show is being acted out to prove to the French that Sarko really is a tough guy with a Kärcher.

Why, is obvious. The economy and employment are not going to improve, belt-tightening lies ahead, and Sarkozy wants to use the situation for TINA "reforms". He is deeply impopular and polls show him a likely loser in 2012, if he stands for reelection. So he is turning back to the base that won him the 2007 election: the over-65s who want scary brown people imprisoned and/or thrown out of the country.

The strategy is one of polarisation: strongly divide the electorate on cultural issues. Sarkozy's favourite verb for this policy is cliver, to cleave, to split (as in "wedge" issue). Apparently he has recently repeated to his advisors and supporters that from now on it would be cleave, cleave, cleave – and the more the left screams about it the better. The machine to call the left "soft on crime" is of course already running: the identity of foreign with criminal is its fundamental plank, so any defence of foreigners or citizens of foreign extraction is equivalent to defending criminals.

Is it working? Hard to say. Polls differ. The two main monthly popularity barometers differ on the up or down tendency for Sarko, though where they agree is that he is still only supported by less than one out of three respondents. The strategy might work, but it looks like a desperate gamble. What is even more likely to happen, as one major minister (Woerth-it) bites the dust and Sarko proceeds with a government reshuffle that may well see a change of Prime Minister, is that Sarkozia will decline into the nasty little set of conflicting egos it's made up of. And belt-tightening ahead...

So the left wins in 2012? Quite possibly, even probably. But whose nest is Sarkozy feathering right now? As he trivialises the supposed connection between foreigners and crime, as he flatters the insecurity angst of the fearful and the law-and-order lust of the authoritarian, for whom is he preparing a solid electoral base of 25%? For Le Pen. No, not Jean-Marie, his daughter Marine, whom J-M will soon seat on the throne of a family-dynasty Front National. So, whether or not Sarkozy himself gains a political advantage from his crossing of the lines, he is doing permanent damage to France and to Europe.

Are we back in the '20s and '30s? Sarkozy and his people certainly don't think so, they simply know they can transgress by the regular echoes of Vichy policies, and transgression, crossing the lines, is the way to gain attention and sharpen up the options before the standard voter. Also note that Sarkozy wants the left to jump up and down with its hair on fire. Yelling "Nazi" at him is just great for cleaving the electorate. So, even if we're tempted to think it, it's not the greatest in terms of communication. And frankly, we are not in the situation of post-Versailles Germany. History does not repeat itself. Annette Wieviorka is a respected specialist of the history of that period, and here's what she said in a recent interview: