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French Socialist primary : Round Two

by eurogreen Thu Oct 13th, 2011 at 07:50:15 AM EST

Tonight, Wednesday 12th October, we have the TV debate between second-round candidates Martine Aubry and François Hollande. The vote is on Sunday, and is impossible to call for the moment. This may well be the decisive moment...

I will attempt to live-blog it, giving a bit of background, and my subjective impressions.

The debate can be followed live here, and it will certainly be available here after the event.

frontpaged - Nomad - bumped by afew


So, what is this French primary?

The original intention was an Italian-style affair, open to everyone on the left.

This is a little bit weird given that France already has a two-round presidential election. But never mind. The idea was quickly abandoned by the Socialist Party, when they worked out that there was no guarantee that a charismatic leftist candidate from outside the PS (cough renegade Mélenchon cough), or from the Greens, would not beat out their rather boring and not-very-motivational candidates.

So, what we get was billed as a way for Socialist voters to choose their candidate. But voting is open to any elector willing to pay 1 euro and sign a pledge of allegiance to "values of the left".

Personally, I was only very mildly interested in the whole affair, until as recently as a couple of weeks ago. After all, I will certainly not vote for the PS candidate in the first round of the presidential election; and I am resigned to voting for them in the second. But then it struck me - and I am not alone, visibly : as a second-round voter, I have the right, and the opportunity, to influence the selection of that candidate : let's go for it!

This phenomenon explains the big surprise of the first round : the unexpected 17% of Arnaud Montebourg. Clearly to the left of the five other candidates, making the right noises about bringing the banksters to heel, relocalising the economy, reforming the republic, and ecology, he pulled in a lot of people who, like me, probably hadn't expected to vote.

He has sent a letter to the second-round candidates, asking them to position themselves with respect to his themes during tonight's debate, after which he will announce his support for one or the other... or neither.

[UPDATE 1]

Montebourg's letter

Here's a quick résumé of his letter :

  1. How do you intend to take back political control of the financial system, which currently submits governments and taxpayers to undue demands? No taxpayers' money to bail them out from their stupidities. Government and consumer representatives on bank boards. Separation of retail banking from the rest. etc.
  2. European social and ecological protectionism : fair trade.
  3. Sixth Republic. Reform of the institutions. Power to the Parliament, real independance of justice, referendum to revoke any elected official, open data.

[UPDATE 2]

The debate

  • Aubry is asked what she meant by "gauche molle" (flabby left), [she was clearly talking about Hollande at the time, on Sunday]. She says she was just positioning herself as "gauche forte" (strong left). She gets in a few licks about bringing the banks to heel, etc. Hollande replies that he's not "gauche molle" but he's not "gauche dure" (hard left), either... doesn't want to make unrealistic promises.

  • Hollande talks about reducing deficits, but says no constitutional change is necessary. Aubry accuses him of wanting to write the "règle d'or" [teutonic deficit elimination] into the budget.

    [UPDATE 3]

  • Industrial policy : nothing much, no great distinction between the two (no mention of Europrotectionism).

  • Fiscal policy : they are singing from the same hymn book, Party policy was set before candidate selection, which is a good plan. And their tax reforms seem good, largely inspired by the excellent Révolution Fiscale people. Restore progressivity of income tax, eliminate the dodges that mean the rich pay less tax, proportionally, than the middle class.

  • Aubry talks of separating retail and merchant banks, claims to have invented it. Take control of banks if necessary, but not without compensation at market price. Hollande talks of imminent partial default of Greece, and of banks, notably French, who have gambled and lost, will need funds and won't find them on the market. Government representatives on bank boards with veto rights. Separation of retail banks and speculation. He's coming on hard here.

    [UPDATE 4]

  • Retirement, civil service : no differences between them.
  • Education : they're trying to have a fight on this.
  • Montebourg! Journalist asks if they agree with his "anti-mondialisation" theme. Aubry says she's been working with the socialist parties of Europe (for 3 years) on fair trade. Gives examples : if China won't let our companies invest in China, we will restrict their investments here. If their environmental standards aren't good enough, we'll tax their goods at import. Aubry claims to have conciliated the "yes" and "no" sides of the Maastricht debate on the left, by this sort of position. Hollande is for an open economy, but he is for reciprocity.

    [UPDATE 5]

  • What to do about Greece? Aubry says : Europe has done too little, too late. And has been too severe : even Lagarde now thinks so! 12% growth lost. The taxpayers will not pay, despite what Sarko says : the banks must pay. Hollande : We must admit that Greece can't pay, partial default, recapitalise banks. Europe must invent a mechanism. Majority decisions. Eurobonds, to invest in the future.
  • Are you ready for federal Europe? Relinquish fiscal, economic sovereignty? Aubry talks of her dad's vision, confederal Europe. She's for closer integration of the inner circle : two-speed europe. Hollande : the model of European construction is finished. Repeats the inner circle thing. Will discuss with Merkel : if France must have greater fiscal discipline, Germany must relaunch consumption!
  • Turkey : Hollande : to be honest, they aren't coming into Europe any time soon. Still hung up about Cyprus, still aren't treating their minorities right.
  • Why do you want to be president? Hollande wants to be the president of justice : too much injustice. Aubry talks of her experience in government (Hollande has none). She talks of how disunited the PS was when she took it over from Hollande (they were consecutively First Secretaries). She's clear, she's constant, she doesn't change positions all the time.

    [UPDATE 6]

  • Right to vote for immigrants in local elections : both are for. But Aubry was for it first (25 years ago).
  • Does the President have too much power? Aubry : the post has been misused. She wants a 30% pay cut. Change the constitution : more power to parliament. Independence of justice : cut the umbilical cord. Protect the liberties of the media. Decentralisation. Hollande : president must be exemplary. End of penal impunity. Reform of electoral mode : more diversity in parliament. More power to the unions.
  • Aubry : we've got to restore the idea that progress is possible, after five hopeless years. Her first measure : equality of salaries between men and women. Last-minute pitch! Women, vote on Sunday.
  • Hollande : I need a big majority on Sunday.
There. The debate is over. I'm not very objective, but here's my impression : on the issues, it's pretty much stalemate. However, Aubry landed some good punches about her vast experience, and her consistency, clarity and firmness (portrait en creux of the qualities Hollande lacks). I think she's the winner, but what do I know?

[Footnote : this evening, Ségolène Royal gave her support to Hollande. I don't think that endorsement is worth a hill of beans.]

Display:
Sounds a bit inconclusive.
by IM on Wed Oct 12th, 2011 at 04:17:48 PM EST
Well. I can't see why anyone would be motivated by Hollande's performance. On the other hand, some people might be intimidated by Aubry's. Men, in particular.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed Oct 12th, 2011 at 04:48:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Good to have someone live-blogging this. It also strikes me that the new approach provides some more visibility/early introduction to the PS presidential candidate for the bigger public.

As to Ségolène Royal giving her support to Hollande - is that the kiss of death or her final goodbye?

by Nomad on Wed Oct 12th, 2011 at 05:40:57 PM EST
One imagines their children might have been a bit pissed off if she hadn't.

Less trivially : he claims he hasn't asked for endorsement, hasn't made any deals. She, on the other hand, points to the fact that her pet subject of punishing profitable companies which lay off workers has found its way into his program...

That's the thing : he's prepared to make deals with anyone. There's no evidence that he has any ideals or ideas of his own.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Wed Oct 12th, 2011 at 06:33:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
he looks/sounds pretty flabby to me. more milquetoast left ain't what europe needs.

aubry comes across a bit butch, but her policies and presence are the most authentic.

thanks Eurogreen! as long as sarko gets his rump kicked, any will do...

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Wed Oct 12th, 2011 at 10:49:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Mélenchon wrote an equally good letter (published in y'day's Huma, also on his blog) you might enjoy, commenting on the side that Montebourg would make a good PM in a Mélenchon administration.

Perhaps there is a third candidate on the left who might garner Arnaud's endorsement?

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Thu Oct 13th, 2011 at 03:25:26 AM EST
is Eva Joly. Anti-corruption, reform of institutions, control of the banks, what else you got?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Thu Oct 13th, 2011 at 03:34:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Eva Joly wants to run for. Is it Modem, or is it Europe Ecology?


The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
by r------ on Thu Oct 13th, 2011 at 06:23:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
that she had centrist appeal. You think so? It would be a definite plus. There is a sea of people who are completely clueless about politics, but have a strong sense of the values of bourgeois democracy, and are horrified at what Sarko has done to the Republic. They were Bayrou fodder last time, and are complete orphans this time, up for grabs.

I don't consider this a cynical attitude, by the way. They are citizens too, their voices deserve to be heard. Through identification with a candidate, they may come to think about the issues a bit more deeply.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Oct 13th, 2011 at 06:58:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
appeal, but rather, to the fact she made a personal appeal to Modem's leader, a certain Bayrou, not so long ago, to run for his party.

In my opinion, now is not the time to entrust fundamental reform, especially structural political and economic reform, to someone without solid ideological bearings.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Thu Oct 13th, 2011 at 07:28:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But didn't Joly win the Europe-Ecologie primary for the 2012 Presidential election?

Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Oct 13th, 2011 at 08:50:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes she did.

Eva Joly - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In 2011, Joly was competing in the primaries of Europe Écologie - Les Verts against Nicolas Hulot, Stephane L'Hommme and Henri Stoll to represent the merged parties at the president of France in the election of 2012. She was elected in the second round of voting against Hulot, with 58% of votes [6].


Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Thu Oct 13th, 2011 at 08:53:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Then what is redstar talking about?

Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Oct 13th, 2011 at 08:54:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
is in the center, it is not a Red/Green party as in northern parts of Europe, but more heteroclit, with a strong economic liberal tendancy.

I wouldn't trust economic reforms to Europe Ecologie any more than I would to the Nouveau Centre or other centrist groupings.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Fri Oct 14th, 2011 at 07:17:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry, can't let that pass. Partisan sniping is fun, but that's counterfactual. Check out Pascal Canfin, check out Alain Lipietz, Pierre Larrouturou

... are these the people with the strong economic liberal tendency? Or do you have some other people in mind?

They are post-Marxists, is this the problem perhaps?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Fri Oct 14th, 2011 at 08:25:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
She is the primary winner for the Greens, running for President as a Green.

And yes, she did approach Bayrou to run MoDem before deciding she was a Green. That was only three year ago, and no, I  Bayrou is certainly not  wouldn't trust Bayrou on market and banking reforms either.

I said the Greens were heteroclit, you can state all the counterexamples you like but the fact is, the standard-bearer for the French Greens is economically speaking of doubtful ideological footing. I'm sorry, but I won't be surprised if she does poorly, the moment next Spring will be for clarity and forcefulness in the face of what will be a deepening crisis. IFOP's got her at 5% at this point, I suspect that is is ceiling on  her popularity, but we'll see.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Fri Oct 14th, 2011 at 08:58:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the fact is, the standard-bearer for the French Greens is economically speaking of doubtful ideological footing

Because whe did such a poor job on the Icelanding banks...

Economics is politics by other means

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Oct 14th, 2011 at 09:01:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, so Eva Joly is the centre of gravity of the Greens. I thought she was the star personality we selected to raise our profile in the presidential elections! It's just as well we didn't select Monsieur Hulot, the sudden change of the centre of gravity of the party would have been quite a lurch...

Would you care to give us the benefit of your research as to the writings or pronouncements on economics of Joly which are in contradiction with the vast body of Green economic writing, or of the Party program itself, which are all quite homogeneous? Or is it like a venereal disease, transmitted by contact?

To be clear :

  1. I doubt that you will be able to demonstrate that she is heterodox on economic thinking
  2. even if she were, she would not represent the "centre of gravity" of Green economic thinking, which is well-established and very different indeed from right-wing or centrist economics.


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Fri Oct 14th, 2011 at 09:13:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
On which, see this comment and its diary.

Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Oct 14th, 2011 at 09:20:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
To conflate what Bayrou would do about finance (given his right-centrist record) and what Joly would do (given her long record as a fighting financial judge) is plain wrong.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Oct 14th, 2011 at 09:14:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I simply point out that she in fact had flirted with Bayrou, and that Bayrou is not on the left.

And then I further stated a personal preference for a candidate with ideological bona fides of the left persuasion when dealing with what is in fact a financial crisis which we will witness deepening between now and election time.

Nothing against Ms Joly, she certainly has established anti-corruption credentials, and I wish her and the Greens well. I just am stating a personal preference for more ideological rigor in confronting the present financial system. This is because while it is important to fight illegal and corrupt actions under the present rules and the current system, it is even more important to combat the corruption which is inherent in, and even defined by, those same rules and that same system.

This is why Montebourg was so successful, there is clearly a properly grounded strain of this in the PS, and clearly also in the PC and Front de Gauche.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Fri Oct 14th, 2011 at 11:19:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
redstar:
there is clearly a properly grounded strain of this in the PS, and clearly also in the PC and Front de Gauche.

And it's mainstream in EELV, as I have demonstrated. Where are Eva Joly's "centrist" economic principles? An incongruous transitive slur won't do.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Fri Oct 14th, 2011 at 11:48:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's not my intention to proselytise or to argue whose candidate is better, I speak only personally, and do not believe I began the explicit advocacy of any particular candidate.

This being said, talking about rolling back the bouclier fiscale and auditing the banks, along with some pretty weak language about sovereign debt mutualisation, this seems to me to be weak tea, certainly not a specific economic programme which distinguishes the greens. We need more than this.

Sorry, I'm unconvinced, and suspect the votes will be garnered for other reasons, specifically the commitment to sustainable industries as an economic engine, which is the platform and has been for some time.

 

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Fri Oct 14th, 2011 at 12:10:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If its centre of gravity is in the centre, I suppose you mean half of EE-LV is on the right.

Cheap shot.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Oct 14th, 2011 at 09:05:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Centre-right, but right nonetheless.

Also, centre of gravity can simply mean the power center or the cadres, generally-speaking, not the average member, as you are suggesting was my meaning.

No matter, I'll stop commenting on this thread if it is thought I am being offensive.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Fri Oct 14th, 2011 at 09:10:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Now Bayrou is part of Europe Écologie? I thought we were discussing the position of EE-LV?

Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Oct 14th, 2011 at 09:12:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
and I won't insist on an apology. One mustn't take these things personally.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Fri Oct 14th, 2011 at 09:15:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
but Redstar is referring to an earlier episode, in 2007(?), when she was looking for a political vehicle, and had discussions with Bayrou about the possibility of leading his party's ticket for the European elections. This came to nothing, because it was around this stage that Dany Cohn-Bendit and others launched the "Europe Ecologie" ticket, bringing together José Bové, Eva Joly and various others, along with Les Verts.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Thu Oct 13th, 2011 at 08:59:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You know, of course, that there's wide speculation that Montebourg will leave the PS to join Mélenchon sometime soon.

(Beauty and the Beast, lol...)

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Oct 13th, 2011 at 03:44:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Only one of the remaining two PS candidates was potentially inclined to adopt his points, though she didn't make very strong case last night.

Montebourg would make a very good PM.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Thu Oct 13th, 2011 at 06:16:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
if he did that. The primary result is very flattering to him, in terms of his actual base within the PS, but does a lot of good for the image of the PS too, and he has a ministerial career in front of him. And I don't really think Mélenchon's vehicle can function with two drivers.

Mélenchon saw an opportunity to revive, or at least exploit, the Communist Party vote, given that the PC had no charismatic leaders on offer, and a heavy handicap what with not being very sexy in historical terms. He's good at that. He doesn't need Montebourg's help.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Oct 13th, 2011 at 09:06:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I certainly think Montebourg's 17% will incline him to stay with the PS.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Oct 13th, 2011 at 09:46:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks for the summary, I only saw part of the debate.

What bothers me is the positioning (if not posturing). Yes, we hear some welcome sounds in this debate: but the aim of the debaters is to persuade a leftwing electorate to vote for them in a primary. What policies would either candidate suggest later in the campaign, when addressing the electorate as a whole? How "centrist" would they then try to appear?

Aubry has always come across as more solidly on the left, and less given to compromise, than Hollande. This is not just an image she cultivates. Yet, here again, it's to her advantage in this primary to appear so, feeling as all the candidates have certainly felt, a groundswell from leftwing voters sending a message to the upper echelons of the PS (witness Montebourg's 17%). So it's her game to be "not soft left".

So a debate that positions itself leftwards to speak to a leftwing audience, and two candidates who adopt respective positions within that debate to appeal to a broad grouping within that electorate (harder or softer left). Shadow boxing?

Two more or less minor items have recently worked their way into my impressions on this. Here's one, from Mathieu Sapin, who recently began a sketchpad reporting blog for Libé on the presidential campaign:

Bottom left: "A bloke on Martine Aubry's barge HQ, the night of the PS primary first round"

Speech balloons, clockwise: "Nah, this is working out fine. With a ten-point gap, that means everything. It's a quasi-defeat, if not more..."
"Nah, in a TV debate, she can eat him alive... Yeah..."
"No, but it'll have to be a dirty campaign. Kind of: a woman president and blablabla..."
"... she's unbeatable at getting people to swallow stuff she doesn't believe in, the 35 hours etc..."
"Listen she was almost beautiful this evening..."

(Note to Aubry: if this really is the kind of "communicator" you've got around you, you're twenty years late. Get rid of them pronto.)

The other is an impassioned missive sent to me by a friend, a Frenchwoman in her late 30s, (neither a member of the PS nor involved in Aubry's campaign), in which she pleads Aubry's cause, clearly believing what she writes (among others, the fairly often-stated view that Libération is campaigning for Hollande...).

...je sais que Martine Aubry, si elle était elue présidente,n'aurait pas pour ambition de se cantonner a distribuer des béquilles sociales dans un monde en proie aux tempêtes financières et vautours de toutes espèces qui s'abattent, entre autres , sur les citoyens, classes moyennes et populaires confondues, de l'Europe.
(Elle)... a pour projet de tourner la page de l'ultra libéralisme et de reconstruire l'Europe sur de nouvelles bases. Elle veut réguler la finance,s'attaquer la ou ça fait mal, réindustrialiser la France...

...I know that Martine Aubry's ambition, if elected president, would not be limited to handing out social crutches in a world which is prey to financial storms and vultures of all kinds that batten on, among others, the citizens of Europe, middle and working classes together.
(She)... aims at turning the ultra-liberal page and reconstructing Europe on new foundations. She wants to regulate finance, hit where it hurts, reindustrialise France...

I don't know how she "knows" these things. Projection, some? But her passionate plea moves me until... I remember how Aubry left the Jospin government and never publicly fought (because work-sharing is a greenish DFH notion?) for the 35-hour working week reform she had introduced as Labour Minister, and which has been dragged in the mud and chopped up piecemeal by the right since then...

Conclusion, we need other politicians than these. And we haven't got them. So, if I were voting in the primary (I can't), I'd vote for Aubry. There's at least a chance she may be more than the transparent Hollande.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Oct 13th, 2011 at 03:42:56 AM EST
but if I try to be objective : this was a "get out the vote" exercise. So how did they do?

Hollande : as "uniter of the socialists" he's doing OK on paper, because of his endless capacity to adopt other viewpoints. This has always worked well for him in interfactional wheeler-dealer, but in the cold light of day (or under the hot television lights) I don't think it plays very well :


  • The Montebourg voters may be pleasantly surprised by his relatively sudden embrace of a certain number of positions; more likely they are merely amused.

  • Centrist outreach : they may be alarmed to hear him embracing a bunch of leftist positions. On the other hand, they really ought to be reassured, as to his capacity to endlessly adapt and compromise : the essential centrist characteristic (or doctrine).


Aubry :
  • Has she motivated the non-PS Montebourg voters?
  • Has she reached out even further, to people who didn't vote in the first round?
Here I'm inclined to trust my own instincts, because I'm in the target audience. And it works for me. Yeah, I know who she is, I know what she's done, I have no illusions about her. And yet, she is the best there is on offer, by a wide margin, and has been since at least 2007 (she was wise not to run then, Sarkozy was unstoppable).

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Thu Oct 13th, 2011 at 06:11:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why do you want to be president? Hollande wants to be the president of justice : too much injustice. Aubry talks of her experience in government (Hollande has none). She talks of how disunited the PS was when she took it over from Hollande (they were consecutively First Secretaries). She's clear, she's constant, she doesn't change positions all the time.
That's Aubry saying why she should be president, not why she wants to be president...

Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Oct 13th, 2011 at 04:38:07 AM EST
She 'wants to be' president because she 'should be' president.Suppressing her ego for the common good.

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!
by LEP on Thu Oct 13th, 2011 at 04:53:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, that's the ominous interpretation...

Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Oct 13th, 2011 at 04:58:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
She doesn't really want to be president; she's doing it out of a sense of duty. Sin of pride, perhaps; but in this, as in so many things, she is the polar opposite of Sarkozy, and that's a terrific platform to run on.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Thu Oct 13th, 2011 at 06:15:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Dans l'attente d'une décision de Montebourg, son camp est divisé - LeMonde.fr Pending a decision from Montebourg, his team is divided - LeMonde.fr
A l'en croire, il n'a pas encore tranché. "Ma décision n'est pas prise", assurait Arnaud Montebourg au Monde, à l'issue d'un débat télévisé, mercredi 12 octobre, qu'il a regardé chez lui, et qui semble ne pas l'avoir éclairé. "Je ne suis pas une agence de notation des candidats", évacue-t-il.According to him, he has not yet decided. "My decision has not been taken" , Arnaud Montebourg assured the World , after a televised debate, Wednesday, October 12, that he watched at home, and that seems not to have illuminated him. "I'm not a rating agency of the candidates' , he evacuates.
Le troisième homme de la primaire socialiste, qui a vu François Hollande lundi et devait rencontrer Martine Aubry jeudi matin, puis réunir ses amis politiques dans un café parisien, attend encore la réponse du député de Corrèze à sa lettre ouverte. The third man in the Socialist primary, which saw Francois Hollande would meet Monday and Martine Aubry Thursday morning, then meet his political friends in a Parisian cafe, still awaiting the response to his open letter from Hollande.
"Quand j'aurai eu tous les éléments pour me prononcer, je le ferai vendredi. C'est une décision personnelle. Personne d'autre que moi ne sait, y compris mes très proches. Je n'ai pas l'intention de me laisser voler ce choix, qui aura un sens politique pour toute la suite de la campagne", explique M. Montebourg. "When I have all the elements to decide me, I'll do Friday. This is a personal decision. No one but me knows, including my very close. I do not have the I intend to let anyone steal my choice, which will have a political meaning for the whole course of the campaign " says Montebourg.
Un de ses amis politiques résume : "Il est un peu perdu, Arnaud. Il est perturbé. Il hésite..." Cruel dilemme. Comment ne pas dilapider le capital électoral thésaurisé à l'issue du premier tour de la primaire socialiste? "Ce sont des problèmes de riches, de gens qui ont fait 17 %. Ce n'est pas le problème de Manuel Valls", désamorce Aquilino Morelle, directeur de campagne de M.Montebourg. Mais le nouveau riche entend bien conserver ses nouvelles parts de marché.
A summary from one of his political friends: "He is a little lost, Arnaud. He is disturbed. He hesitates... cruel dilemma. How not to squander the electoral capital hoarded in the first round of the socialist primary ? "These are problems of rich people who have made 17%. This is not the problem of Manuel Valls" , defuses Aquilino Morelle, campaign manager for Mr. Montebourg. But the new rich intends to maintain his market share.
"Tout le monde a conscience qu'il ne faut pas faire de fausse manoeuvre, qui le couperait d'une partie des gens qui l'ont soutenu", indique Géraud Guibert, membre de l'équipe. Car sur la suite des opérations, les troupes sont partagées. "Mes cadres départementaux sont tous pour Aubry, mes cadres nationaux sont plutôt Hollande et ma base est coupée en deux", explique le député de Saône-et-Loire. D'où un sérieux casse-tête politique. "Everyone recognizes that we must not make a false move, which would cut off a portion of the people who supported" , said Geraud Guibert, team member . For the remaining operations, the troops are divided. "My departmental managers are for Aubry, my national managers tend Holland and my base is cut in two" , says deputy of Saone-et-Loire. Whence a serious political headache.
"EVITER LES CACOPHONIES" "AVOID cacophony"
"On est dans une période de grosses turbulences, très compliquée pour nous", concède la députée de Guyane, Christiane Taubira, proche d'Arnaud Montebourg. "On s'est éloigné des deux finalistes pendant la campagne. Et depuis trois jours, on est obligés de s'en rapprocher. C'est très compliqué dans nos têtes." La consigne de ces derniers jours a été formelle : silence radio dans les rangs. "Pour éviter les cacophonies", indique un membre de l'équipe. "We are in a period of great turbulence, very complicated for us," concedes the member for Guyana, Christiane Taubira , near Arnaud Montebourg. "We walked away from both finalists during the campaign. And for three days, one is forced to move back. It's very complicated in our heads." The instruction of recent days was formal: silence in the ranks. "To avoid cacophony" , said a team member.
Arnaud Montebourg devrait à l'arrivée s'abstenir de donner une directive formelle. "C'est archaïque, les consignes de vote, estime Christiane Taubira. D'autant plus pour l'électorat d'Arnaud, qui est un électorat très libre. Il ne se considère pas comme le chef de ses électeurs. Mais il ne peut pas rester silencieux."Arnaud Montebourg is expected in the end to refrain from giving a formal directive. "It's archaic, voting instructions , said Christiane Taubira. Especially for the electorate of Arnaud, who is a very free electorate. He does not consider itself as the leader of his constituents. But he can not stay silent. "
Le partisan de la démondialisation s'oriente donc vers une position titre personnel". Sans doute pas pour Martine Aubry, qui "s'y prend super mal", selon un membre de son équipe.
The proponent of de-globalization is thus taking the direction of a "personal position". Probably not for Martine Aubry, who "is going about it terribly badly" , according to a team member.
"Nous, nous sommes au-delà des apparences, précise Aquilino Morelle. A partir du moment où on a été clair avec nos électeurs, si le choix de Montebourg se portait sur Hollande, je ne crois pas qu'on les perdrait. L'électorat, ce qu'il veut, c'est gagner, et donc avec un candidat désigné clairement. Je ne crois pas qu'il en ferait toute une histoire." Même le héraut de la "nouvelle France" peut se montrer sensible à l'argument du vote utile, celui pour François Hollande. "We, we are beyond the appearances , said Aquilino Morelle . A from the moment it was clear to our constituents, if the choice of Montebourg goes to Holland, I do not believe that we would lose them. What the electorate wants is to win , and thus with a clear nominee. I do not think it would make a fuss. " Even the herald of the "New France" can show sensitivity to the argument of strategic voting, for Francois Hollande.
L'idéalisme, dans cette primaire, n'est pas incompatible avec un certain pragmatisme. "Certains, dans l'équipe, espèrent déjà négocier des places avec Hollande", se désole un membre du collectif de M.Montebourg. Ceux-là, le député de Saône-et-Loire, lors d'une réunion lundi matin, les avait pourtant prévenus: "Je ne me suis pas battu pour être ministre. Je m'en fous !"Idealism, in this primary, is not incompatible with a certain pragmatism. "Some in the team are already hoping to negotiate places with Holland" , laments one member of the group of Mr. Montebourg. These were warned by the deputy of Saone-et-Loire, in a meeting Monday morning: "I did not fight to be minister. I do not care!"

and is surrounded by ambitious operators.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Oct 13th, 2011 at 09:32:17 AM EST
Decoded:

Hollande is likely to win.

The choice for PM will be between Aubry and Montebourg.

(Fill in the blanks.)

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Oct 13th, 2011 at 09:59:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
of Arnaud's soul-searching. Hollande must have made him a substantial offer. Aubry isn't playing the game he claims he doesn't want to play ("elle s'y prend super mal"), but it may all turn out differently after their summit meeting today...

but seriously, I think people are big enough to make up their own minds. He has played his cards well up until now, but he risks making a twit of himself.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Oct 13th, 2011 at 10:33:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep. They're not going to make me believe their base is evenly split between Hollande and Aubry.

It's not a perfect indication, but last night on Libé's live coverage of the debate, they ran an online straw poll of those who had voted Montebourg in the first round, as to for whom they would now vote in the second. It went 53% Aubry, 21% Hollande.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Oct 13th, 2011 at 10:40:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
«Mon cher Arnaud, je réponds à ta lettre avec grand plaisir» - Libération "Dear Arnaud, I am responding to your letter with great pleasure" - Release
Tu connais mon engagement à reprendre la main sur la finance. C'est un préalable au nouveau modèle que nous devons bâtir : l'efficacité dans la justice ! Les mesures que j'appelle de mes voeux n'ont pas changé tout au long de cette campagne : recapitaliser les banques en faisant entrer l'Etat à leur conseil d'administration et en leur imposant en contrepartie d'une part une stricte limitation des bonus bancaires, d'autre part des obligations précises de financement des entreprises et des ménages ; séparer les banques de dépôts et les banques d'investissement, c'est essentiel pour protéger l'épargner des Français ; interdire certaines pratiques spéculatives comme les ventes à découvert ; plafonner les frais bancaires et mieux encadrer le crédit revolving qui plonge dans le surendettement de nombreux ménages ; créer à l'échelle européenne une taxe sur les transactions financières pour casser la spéculation, faire porter le poids du remboursement de la dette au système bancaire et non aux contribuables nationaux, mais aussi pour lancer des programmes d'investissement ; mettre en oeuvre une agence de notation publique européenne ; interdire les relations des établissements financiers et bancaires avec les paradis fiscaux et bancaires qui sont le trou noir de la finance mondiale, ainsi qu'agir pour la suppression des paradis fiscaux à l'échelle européenne et du G20.You know my commitment to take control of finance. This is a prerequisite for the new model that we must build: efficiency with justice! The measures that I call for have not changed throughout the campaign: recapitalize banks while bringing the State to their boards and imposing, in return, a strict limitation of bank bonuses, also specific obligations in financing of businesses and households; separate the commercial banks and investment banks, it is essential to protect the savings of the French to prohibit certain practices such as speculative short sales, cap bank charges and pose limits on revolving credit facilities which throw many households into debt, creating a Europe-wide tax on financial transactions to smash speculation, to put the burden of debt repayment on the banking system and not the taxpayers, but also to launch investment programs; found a European rating agency; prohibit financial institutions and banks having relations with tax and banking havens that are the black hole of global finance, and working for the abolition of tax havens at the European level and G20.
En parallèle, nous devrons créer une Banque Publique Européenne, à partir du Fonds de Stabilisation Financière, pour empêcher la spéculation contre les dettes souveraines, et en France même, créer une Banque publique d'investissement sous forme de fonds régionaux. La finance doit être mise au service de l'économie et non l'inverse, et l'économie au service de l'humain.In parallel, we will create a European Public Bank, from the Fiscal Stabilization Fund to prevent speculation against sovereign debt, and in France itself, create a public investment bank in the form of regional funds. Finance should be made to serve the economy and not the reverse, and the economy at the service of humanity.
Concernant le commerce international, tu sais le travail que j'ai mené au sein de notre parti pour dépasser une forme de libre échangisme dogmatique qui a trop longtemps prévalu dans nos orientations générales. Tu sais aussi que j'ai tenu à convaincre nos partenaires européens de militer à nos côtés pour une Europe qui protège son économie, ses industries et ses travailleurs. Le PSE et le SPD ont repris à leur compte nos propositions pour réguler les échanges et les rendre plus justes. C'est une avancée décisive, car, à l'évidence, nous ne pourrons pas pratiquer cette politique tout seuls. Nous avons besoin de le faire avec nos partenaires, à l'échelle de l'Europe. Aujourd'hui, une nouvelle politique commerciale européenne fondée sur une réciprocité exigeante est possible. C'est à l'Europe de la pratiquer sans attendre : nos intérêts en seront renforcés dans la compétition mondiale et nos exigences mieux prises en compte dans les négociations internationales. Europe ouverte, oui ; Europe offerte, non.On international trade, you know the work I have conducted in our party than a form of free trade dogma that has too long prevailed in our general guidelines. You know that I wanted to convince our European partners to advocate with us for a Europe that protects its economy, its industries and its workers. PSE and the SPD have adopted our proposals to regulate trade and make it more fair. This is a breakthrough because, obviously, we can not practice this policy alone. We need to do with our partners across Europe. Today, a new EU trade policy based on reciprocity is possible. It is up to Europe to put it into practice without delay: our interests will be strengthened in global competition and our requirements better taken into account in international negotiations. Open Europe, yes, Europe given away, no.
Je suis pour l'égalité dans les échanges commerciaux. L'Europe devra augmenter les droits de douane au niveau européen sur les produits ne respectant pas les normes internationales en matière sociale, sanitaire ou environnementale. Comment être de gauche sans être intransigeants sur le social et l'environnement ? Elue présidente de la République, je proposerai à nos partenaires européens de renforcer les clauses de sauvegarde et de réciprocité visant à garantir la loyauté des échanges. Il n'est pas acceptable, par exemple, que la Chine impose aux entreprises étrangères de produire localement pour alimenter son marché alors que l'Europe ne se donne pas les moyens d'obtenir la réciprocité : je ne me résigne pas à la fatalité des délocalisations de nos industries hors d'Europe. Je n'accepte pas davantage que nos marchés publics soient ouverts à des entreprises non européennes quand ceux de la nationalité de ces entreprises ne le sont pas. L'Europe doit être active, pas naïve. C'est tout le sens du combat pour la réindustrialisation que je n'ai cessé de mener depuis que je suis à la tête du Parti socialiste.I am for equality in trade. Europe will increase tariffs at EU level on products not complying with international standards on social, health or environmental. Can we be on the left without being intransigent on the social and the environment? Elected President of the Republic, I will propose to our European partners to strengthen safeguards and reciprocity to ensure fair trading. It is not acceptable, for example, that China requires foreign companies to produce locally to feed the market while Europe does not give itself the means to obtain reciprocity: I am not resigned to the inevitability of relocation of our industries outside Europe. I do not accept more than our public markets are open to non-EU companies when those of the nationality of these companies are not. Europe must be active, not naive. This is the meaning of the struggle for the re-industrialization that I have been conducting since I was at the head of the Socialist Party.
Parmi les mesures que tu évoques, je suis favorable à un contrôle national et européen de toute acquisition étrangère d'entreprises dont les technologies mettent en cause notre souveraineté. Les Etats-Unis le font. Pourquoi pas nous ? En matière de délocalisation, le principe qui doit prévaloir est simple : celui du délocaliseur payeur. Il s'agira, pour une entreprise qui réalise des bénéfices et qui ferme un site rentable, de rembourser les aides publiques, dépolluer le site et reclasser les salariés.Among the measures that you mention, I favor a national and European control of any foreign acquisition of companies whose technologies involve sovereignty. The United States do. Why not us? In terms of relocation, the principle that should prevail is simple: that of délocaliseur payer. It will, for a company that makes money and which closes a site profitable to repay state aid, clean up the site and reclassify employees.
Quant aux entreprises qui déménagent l'outil de travail ou les brevets, elles pourront être mises sous tutelle sur décision de la justice saisie par les salariés. Je tiens aussi à préciser que la réindustrialisation de la France réclame davantage qu'une politique strictement défensive. Nos emplois industriels réclament une vraie stratégie de compétitivité-qualité: je souhaite augmenter progressivement nos dépenses de R&D ; je souhaite relancer l'investissement public national et européen dans les secteurs d'avenir ; je souhaite que les PME et leurs capacités d'innovation soient réellement soutenues par les grands groupes et naturellement par les banques ; j'entends réorienter la fiscalité et l'épargne vers l'outil productif plutôt que vers la finance et la rente.As for companies that move the work tool or patents, they can be placed under guardianship decision of the court if employees demand it. I also want to clarify that the re-industrialization of France needs more than a strictly defensive policy. Our manufacturing jobs require a real quality-competitive strategy: I want to gradually increase our R & D, I want to revive the national and European public investment in areas of future I want the SMEs and their ability to innovation are actually supported by the major banks and naturally, I mean taxes and redirect savings into productive tool rather than to finance and rent.
A mes yeux, la vraie performance passe beaucoup par une sécurisation des parcours professionnels pour réduire la précarité dans l'emploi, par la présence des représentants des salariés dans les instances de décision des grandes entreprises, ainsi que par la prévention des maladies professionnelles et l'amélioration des conditions de travail Tu le vois, je plaide pour une stratégie offensive et protectrice pour la France et pour l'Europe. En cela, mon projet est porteur d'une vraie alternative qui lui permet aujourd'hui de rassembler beaucoup de celles et ceux que le débat sur l'Europe en 2005 avait divisés.To me, real performance requires career security to reduce precariousness in employment, by the presence of representatives of employees in decision-making bodies of large companies, as well as the prevention of occupational diseases and improvement of working conditions You see, I plead for an offensive strategy and protective for France and for Europe. In this, my project will have a real alternative, enabling it to gather a lot of those that the debate on Europe in 2005 was divided.
Concernant la transformation de notre économie, je suis fière d'avoir affirmé au coeur de notre projet le besoin d'un nouveau modèle. Notre volonté n'est pas seulement d'aménager ou d'humaniser le marché, mais bien de transformer le modèle de production libéral capitaliste. Plutôt que la financiarisation et la recherche du profit maximal à court terme, enrichissons notre base productive par les valeurs et les méthodes des entreprises du secteur mutualiste et coopératif. Nous les soutenons dans les Régions et les Départements que la gauche dirige, mais l'actuel Gouvernement, hélas, les ignore souvent quand il ne les méprise pas carrément.Concerning the transformation of our economy, I am proud to have put the need for a new model at the heart of our project . Our desire is not only to improve or to humanize the market, but to transform the liberal capitalist model of production. Instead of financialisation and the pursuit of maximum profit in the short term, expanding our productive base by the values ??and practices of companies in the mutual and cooperative sector. We support them in the regions and departments that the left leads, but the current Government, unfortunately, often ignored when it does not despise them altogether.
J'ai eu aussi l'occasion, durant cette campagne, d'exprimer ma volonté de développer et de soutenir l'économie sociale et solidaire, dont j'ai rencontré de très nombreux acteurs. Il faudra leur faciliter l'accès à la commande publique. De même, je me suis engagée à favoriser, en matière agricole, les circuits locaux de l'agriculture paysanne et le renforcement des droits des producteurs face à la grande distribution et ses marges abusives : les paysans ne sont pas seulement des jardiniers du territoire, ils doivent pouvoir vivre de leur travail et subvenir aux besoins de leurs familles. Cette transformation sera d'abord sociale et écologique. Elle conduira la société française à produire, à consommer, à se déplacer autrement. J'ai pris des engagements très fermes sur la manière de conduire cette transition, à la fois en matière énergétique, pour le logement et pour les transports.I also had the opportunity during this campaign, to express my desire to develop and support the social economy, of which I met very many players. It will facilitate access to public procurement. Similarly, I am committed to promote, in agriculture, local circuits of peasant agriculture and strengthening the rights of producers facing the retail margins and abusive: the peasants are not only the gardeners of the territory, they must live for their work and provide for their families. This transformation will first social and ecological. It will lead the French company to produce, consume, move differently. I have taken very firm commitments about how to lead this transition, both in terms of energy, housing and transport.


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Thu Oct 13th, 2011 at 11:49:52 AM EST
«Mon cher Arnaud, je réponds à ta lettre avec grand plaisir» - Libération "Dear Arnaud, I am responding to your letter with great pleasure" - Release
Concernant la démocratie, tu sais les engagements clairs que j'ai pris sur le non-cumul des mandats et des fonctions. J'ai souhaité, avec l'immense majorité des militants socialistes, que ces règles soient applicables dès maintenant et pour 2012 et sans attendre la loi qui doit venir ensuite. Je n'ignore pas les résistances qui s'expriment encore aujourd'hui, mais sache bien que je serai intransigeante sur ce point.About democracy, you know the clear commitments that I took on the non-overlapping mandates and functions. I wished, with the vast majority of socialist activists, that these rules are applicable now and not wait for 2012 and the law that should come next. I know the resistance that still speak, but know that I will be uncompromising on this point.
Au-delà, l'essentiel pour moi est de changer profondément la République. Mon engagement est clair : je veux une nouvelle République qui mette fin à la monarchie présidentielle anachronique de la Ve République. L'échec de l'hyper-présidence Sarkozy nous montre, s'il en était besoin, la voie à ne pas suivre.In addition, most for me is to change profoundly the Republic. My commitment is clear: I want a new Republic to put an end to the monarchy presidential anachronism of the Fifth Republic. The failure of the hyper-President Sarkozy shows, if proof were needed, not the way to go.
Dans cette République, la mobilisation des citoyens sera l'une des conditions des changements que nous voulons. Je sais comment l'action publique peut être revivifiée par les budgets participatifs, les débats publics, les référendum d'initiative populaire, mais aussi en associant loyalement, effectivement, les réseaux associatifs, les mouvements de consommateurs, et en ouvrant largement à tous les données publiques.In this republic, citizen engagement will be a condition of the changes we want. I know how public policy can be revived by participatory budgeting, public debates, the popular initiative referendum, but also by combining fairly, effectively, community networks, the consumer movement, and opening widely to all public data.
J'ajoute - car c'est pour moi un combat constant depuis vingt ans - que le droit de vote aux élections locales sera étendu aux étrangers en situation régulière sur le territoire national. Je veux une République exemplaire qui combattra sans compromis ni compromissions les conflits d'intérêt - renforcement des incompatibilités de fonctions, amélioration des contrôles, surveillance accrue du lobbying - et qui sera sans merci contre la corruption ici et ailleurs. Je défendrai le principe d'inéligibilité pour les élus condamnés par la justice pour des faits de corruption. Et je réduirai de 30 % la rémunération du chef de l'Etat comme celle des ministres.I add - because it is a constant struggle for me for twenty years - the right to vote in local elections will be extended to foreigners lawfully in the country. I want an exemplary Republic which will fight without compromise against conflicts of interest : extending incompatible functions, improved controls, enhanced surveillance of lobbying - and will be merciless against corruption here and abroad. I will defend the principle of ineligibility for elected officials who have been sentenced for corruption. And I will make a 30% reduction on the salaries of the head of state and that of ministers.
Je veux une République équilibrée, avec un Président qui préside, un Gouvernement qui gouverne et un Parlement capable de jouer pleinement son rôle de contrôle. Le Conseil constitutionnel deviendra une véritable Cour constitutionnelle, dont le mode de nomination sera revu. La nouvelle République, c'est une justice pleinement indépendante. Beaucoup de magistrats m'ont confortée dans ce choix.I want a balanced Republic with a President who presides over a government that governs and Parliament can play its oversight role. The Constitutional Council will become a real Constitutional Court, whose mode of appointment will be reviewed. The New Republic is a fully independent justice. Many judges have convinced me that choice.
Je ne transigerai pas avec l'indépendance du parquet que je réaliserai en rendant la nomination des procureurs et le déroulement de leurs carrières indépendants du pouvoir politique ; je mettrai fin par la loi aux instructions individuelles qui ont été réintroduites par J. Chirac puis N. Sarkozy depuis 2002. De même, le statut pénal du chef de l'Etat et des ministres sera révisé afin qu'ils répondent de leurs actes devant des juridictions de droit commun, comme tout citoyen. J'abrogerai les dispositions choquantes du code pénal que sont les peines planchers et la rétention de sûreté, et j'engagerai une profonde réforme du code de procédure pénale. Je maintiendrai la spécificité de la justice des mineurs. Je rendrai la justice et la défense accessibles à tous, notamment par une revalorisation de l'aide juridictionnelle.I will not compromise on the independence of the prosecution that I will establish, by making the appointment of prosecutors and the course of their careers independent of political power; I will end by law the practice of individual instructions [to prosecutors] that have been reintroduced by J. Chirac and N. Sarkozy since 2002. Similarly, the criminal status of head of state and ministers will be revised so that they answer for their actions before courts of law, like any citizen. I will abolish offensive provisions of the Criminal Code that are the minimum sentences and preventive detention, and I urge a radical reform of the Code of Criminal Procedure. I will maintain the specificity of the juvenile justice system. I will make justice and the defense available to all, including a revaluation of legal aid.
La nouvelle République, c'est aussi le pluralisme des médias. Il faut en finir avec cette spécificité française qui voit les principaux médias écrits et audiovisuels appartenir à des groupes de l'armement ou des travaux publics qui vivent de la commande publique. J'imposerai par la loi des règles anti-concentration pour consacrer l'indépendance des rédactions. Ces engagements exigeront des modifications législatives et constitutionnelles profondes que je soumettrai aux Français par référendum. Nous procéderons à la révision la plus importante de notre loi fondamentale depuis son établissement par le Général de Gaulle et Michel Debré. Nous ferons entrer notre République dans le XXIe siècle.The new republic is also about pluralistic media. We must end this French specificity that sees the major print and broadcast media belong to groups of weapons or public works which live by public procurement. I will impose by law anti-concentration rules to enable editorial independence. These commitments will require legislative and constitutional amendments profound that I will submit to the French referendum. We will review the most important of our fundamental law since it was established by General de Gaulle and Michel Debré. We will get our Republic into the 21st century.


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Thu Oct 13th, 2011 at 11:58:40 AM EST
Le Figaro - Flash Actu : Primaire PS : Hollande 53%, Aubry 47% (sondage Opinion Way-Le Figaro)
François Hollande est toujours favori pour le second tour de la primaire socialiste : avec 53% chez les sympathisants de gauche, le député de Corrèze l'emporterait sur Martine Aubry (47%) selon un sondage OpinionWay Fiducial pour le Figaro et LCI. En revanche, le débat de mercredi semble avoir été légèrement favorable à Martine Aubry.

However, Opinionway's first round polling was disastrously bad, they had Hollande 49, Aubry 24.

One of the elements which skew the results : the people who respond to the poll receive gifts. The pollster only polls people who claim to be certain to vote...

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Oct 13th, 2011 at 12:44:41 PM EST
I won't quote it, there's nothing to quote.

He'll give careful consideration to Montebourg's themes, because he is favourable to many of them... etc.

Oddly, none of the media I have read have pointed out that it is far less accomodating than Aubry's reply. Libération, in particular, makes no attempt at any sort of comparison. Which is, um, interesting.

Arnaud has painted himself into a corner here. If he pronounces even a qualified personal preference for Hollande, he will be crucified, surely. Hollande hasn't left him any wiggle room at all (unless he reasons that he can ride it out with the complicity of the media?)

He met Aubry yesterday, and has said he will make some sort of declaration today... no sign of anything so far.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Fri Oct 14th, 2011 at 04:22:13 AM EST
The only think he can do now is say he leaves it open to his supporters to vote their own preference.

Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Oct 14th, 2011 at 04:49:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Arnaud Montebourg : "Je voterai pour Hollande" - LeMonde.fr Arnaud Montebourg: "I will vote for Holland" - LeMonde.fr
J'ai un premier devoir : respecter la liberté de choix des Françaises et des Français qui m'ont fait confiance. J'ai voulu pleinement les éclairer par les échanges de lettres publiques que j'ai eus avec Martine Aubry et François Hollande. Les citoyens peuvent désormais faire leur choix en leur âme et conscience, et je me refuse à donner une consigne de vote. Car dans le mot consigne, il y a l'image de la caserne et de l'enfermement qui est incompatible avec l'esprit de la primaire et de la VIe République. Chacun se déterminera au vu des choix exprimés par les candidats.I have a first obligation: to respect freedom of choice of French men and women who trusted me. I wanted to fully inform them by the public exchange of letters I had with Martine Aubry and Francois Hollande. Citizens can now their choice to their conscience, and I refuse to give an instruction to vote. For in the word instruction, there is the image of the barracks and confinement that is inconsistent with the spirit of the primary and VI e Republic. Each will be determined on the basis of preferences expressed by the candidates.
Quel bulletin glisserez-vous dans l'urne dimanche ?What name will you slip into the ballot box on Sunday?
Pierre Mendès France disait : "Gouverner, c'est choisir." Même lorsque cela est difficile. Il me paraît de l'ordre des qualités demandées à un dirigeant politique de ne pas se dérober. C'est mon second devoir. Dans ce choix, il y a d'abord l'obligation de faire gagner la gauche en 2012. Les propositions des deux candidats étant pour moi équivalentes, je ne peux me déterminer en fonction de ma seule éthique de conviction. C'est pourquoi mon choix relèvera avant tout de l'éthique de responsabilité : je veux faire gagner la gauche et battre Nicolas Sarkozy. A titre exclusivement personnel, je voterai donc pour François Hollande, arrivé en tête du premier tour, à mes yeux meilleur rassembleur. Il a su dans sa lettre jeter un pont entre nos deux rives, et je lui en sais gré.Pierre Mendes-France said "To govern is to choose ." Even when this is difficult. It seems the order of the qualities required of a political leader not to cop out. This is my second duty . In this choice, there is first an obligation to make win left in 2012. The proposals of both candidates is equivalent to me, I can not determine according to my own ethical belief. That's why my choice is first and foremost the ethics of responsibility: I want to make the left win and beat Nicolas Sarkozy. On an exclusively personal basis, I will vote for Francis Holland, topped the first round, in my view best brings people together. In his letter he managed to build a bridge between our two sides, and I am grateful to him.


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Fri Oct 14th, 2011 at 05:30:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Will the 17% vote for Mélanchon, then?

Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Oct 14th, 2011 at 05:56:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bear in mind that they are in large part extra-PS voters.

This opinion poll (pdf) breaks out the perception of the TV debate, by political orientation. PS supporters found Hollande more convincing (43%, against 38% for Aubry).
Green supporters found Aubry better (43% to 23%)
and "radical left" supporters even more so (46% to 15%)

The danger for Hollande, if he wins the nomination, is that many to the left of the PS might stay at home in the second round of the Presidential election.

Come to think of it, another big danger for Hollande is that Mélenchon and Joly draw enough votes in the first round, that he is eliminated by Le Pen.


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Fri Oct 14th, 2011 at 06:37:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Aubry «conseille à chacun de voter avec ses convictions» au second tour - LibérationMélenchon's reaction
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, candidat du Front de gauche à la présidentielle, lors d'un déplacement à Florange (Moselle) à la rencontre des syndicats de l'usine d'ArcelorMittal: «Ce matin, (Arnaud Montebourg) a choisi la couleur de sa cravate, qu'est-ce que vous voulez que ça me fasse... Moi j'ai choisi la mienne: elle est rouge!». «Un socialiste qui vote pour un socialiste, c'est d'une banalité confondante», a-t-il poursuivi. Mardi à Brive-la-Gaillarde, Mélenchon avait félicité Montebourg pour ses 17% au 1er tour de la primaire en soulignant que «ceux qui ont aimé Montebourg dans la primaire vont adorer Mélenchon dans la présidentielle». Mélenchon Jean-Luc, Left Front candidate for president, during a trip to Florange (Moselle) to meet the unions in the ArcelorMittal plant : "This morning, (Arnaud Montebourg) chose the color of his tie, what do you want me to do ... I chose mine: it is red! " . "A socialist voting for a socialist is a confounded banality" , he said. Tuesday in Brive-la-Gaillarde, Mélenchon had congratulated Montebourg for his 17% in the first round of the primary stressing that "those who loved Montebourg in the primary will love Mélenchon in the presidential" .


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Fri Oct 14th, 2011 at 10:56:44 AM EST
Aubry «conseille à chacun de voter avec ses convictions» au second tour - Libération Aubry "advises everyone to vote with his belief" in the second round - Release
Daniel Cohn-Bendit, député européen d'Europe Ecologie-Les Verts, a ironisé vendredi au micro de RTL en disant qu'il est «pour un clonage de Martine Aubry et de François Hollande» et qu'après le résultat de dimanche de la primaire PS, «il faudra faire avec». Interrogé sur la polémique Aubry-Hollande de ces derniers jours, Daniel Cohn-Bendit a répondu: «ces petits noms d'oiseaux ne répondent à rien, ni une "Gauche molle", ni une "Gauche sectaire". Il y a un volontarisme de gauche chez Martine Aubry; il y a une tentative d'ouverture chez François Hollande». Et d'ajouter: «Le tout est de savoir comment gagner (...) et nous, on veut gagner avec celui ou celle qui gagnera (....) Il faudra faire avec, de toute façon». Daniel Cohn-Bendit, MEP for Europe Ecologie, The Greens, joked Friday to RTL mic saying he is "for cloning of Martine Aubry and Francois Hollande" and after the result Sunday of the primary PS, "we'll deal with it" . Asked about the controversy Aubry Holland these days, Daniel Cohn-Bendit said: "the little insults are a waste of time a" soft Left "nor a" Left-sectarian ". There is a proactive left with Martine Aubry, there is an attempt to open with Francis Holland. " added, "The trick is knowing how to win and we want to win with the person who wins (....) we'll make do with the result, anyway."

DISCLAIMER : DCB is clearly to the right of EELV's centre of gravity. (but we still love him, we can't help it.)

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Fri Oct 14th, 2011 at 11:00:45 AM EST


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