by geezer in Paris
Wed Oct 12th, 2011 at 05:04:11 AM EST
We are once again being set up- fed a line of bullshit to justify another war.
Here's the main story line, thanks to the Washington Note, and John Aravosis. 100-150 casualties expected from foiled Iranian plot
It has all the necessary characters for a cheap TV thriller- the beleaguered envoy, adviser to the king of a valued ally, dashing about the world plugging holes in the dike, the evildoers, swarthy and wrapped, and a plot so filled with mayhem, so irrational that it could become the next big video game.
Viewed from a place outside the theater, it looks to me a lot more like a multi-levelled political bomb, designed to turn events in a way that is ultimately to the advantage of the neocon component of the Empire.
At whatever level in the Iranian government where policy is made, where real decision authority rests, a proposal is made for a covert operation to take out the Saudi ambassador to the US, by committing a bloody, shocking act of war against the nation with the most powerful military force in the world, creating 100 to 150 civilian casualties. This at a time when tension is relatively low, and in it's most important city, done in a way in which responsibility for the act will inevitably be placed on those very same decision-makers and all their countrymen.
Whoa. Can we pass this up?
Perhaps the plot was fomented by deranged underlings of the dingbat president. (I use here the contemptuous terms that emerge from public media- I have little real reason to believe their characterizations.) If that is so, they must have gotten some strong drugs with the script.
Five years ago I wrote The Quiet Coup> one of the first pieces I wrote exclusively for ET. It was a good piece, drawing on a lot of personal experience and with good documentation available. The reaction was not bad- there was some real discussion, rather than just thread-pulling. The piece was accurate, as far as it went. But time has added some more pieces to the puzzle.
When Obama arrived at the white House, I thought that one of his first tasks would need to be to get a grip on those same Parallel Structures- the most aggressively antagonistic elements in the government he inherited from Cheney-Rumsfeld-Fieth et al. He failed miserably to do this. In essence, he allowed them to run. Why was that? After reading his books and watching his repudiation of almost everything we thought he believed, I thought perhaps he was waiting to see who won.
After watching from a safe distance for a while, I think it more likely that he was truly unaware of the threat when he entered the white house. But a panoply of his own actions has shown us that his first priority is to be a member of the club. He now has his card, and so now sees his policy and strategic options through the eyes of the club.
It turns out it's a sack of angry cats at the top, and his lack of personal beliefs leaves him deeply vulnerable, with divided loyalties (if one can use that word in relationship to Obama). But this new piece of war theater is very much to his disadvantage.
These are facts it seems he cannot remain unaware of now.
- If the President moves against Iran militarily, the neocons win the holy grail of their theology- war with Iran. Obama will also lose those progressive supporters still able to reason (quite a few), and therefore likely the election.
- If he equivocates, as he does so often, he gives the GOP a huge array of clubs to beat him with- National Pride, Sovereignty, Security (Fear, Fear, Fear!) etc., and his weakness will be even more easy to demonstrate.
- Does it draw attention away from the OWS event? Sure. A plus for all elements in the power structure, true. But there are easier ways to do this, ways that would not empower the GOP/neocon elements so drastically.
Note that the national good does not even enter into my analysis. That is because I see no one following that thread in the entire catfight.
Except the Occupiers.