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If you really insist Finnish election dairy (sic)

by Sven Triloqvist Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 04:42:55 AM EST

originally posted 17 April

I'm milking it again. But any road, voting closes in a few minutes and we'll get the advance voting results soon after. The first 50% of today's votes will be counted in around 9, and they'll mostly be rural and north- so expect a bias toward the Centre party, with odd pockets of rampant red-blooded socialism, and, in small Swedish-speaking towns like the harboured Inkoo, the RKP candidate will have a majority worthy of Kim Il Jung.

the thread now discusses results and consequences - afew


The metropolitan votes come in later, and then the whole balance tilts in the other direction.

The advance voting results that come in soon after polling stations close, may well represent a view of the final outcome - I understand that advance voters are fairly evenly spread.

Anyway, here goes. The booths are closed, pencils dangle forlornly and we're off.....

Display:
Advance voting (over 35% - wow)

True Finns level with National Coalition, then SDP, then Center. Looks like Centre has lost votes. But the night is Henny Youngman.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 01:08:14 PM EST
I would not dream of insisting.

YLE's last poll had:



She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 01:19:43 PM EST
This poll should be re-posted every now and again.

So we can laugh at it.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 03:36:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This Finnish election is important because Finland, uniquely in the EU (as I recall), has to parliamentarily ratify any EU loans to Portugal etc. Since all EU states have to agree unanimously, then if Finland has an anti-loan government, it might not go through, and the loan doesn't go through.

But I don't think that is a real danger.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 01:21:59 PM EST
Helsinki is 40% counted and the True Finns are, as predicted, in 4th place.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 01:24:23 PM EST
My town has only 25% counted - but True Finns have made the biggest gain over 2007 showing.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 01:29:21 PM EST
SUNDAY EVENING : ELECTION SPECIAL - ADVANCE VOTES INDICATE BIG GAINS FOR TRUE FINNS AND A BAD NIGHT IN PROSPECT FOR CENTRE PARTY

The polls closed at 20:00, and the first results of advance voting - in which some 31.2% of the electorate took part - have just come in.
      They suggest a very strong showing by the True Finns, and that the Centre Party of Prime Minister Mari Kiviniemi has taken a battering. The Centre are only in fourth place behind the National Coalition Party and the opposition Social Democrats and True Finns. The Social Democrats have thus far claimed second place, as the count continues.



You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 01:36:56 PM EST
isn't a 15-20% result for a populist right-wing party  quite normal in scandinavian countries nowadays?#
by IM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 01:41:39 PM EST
Finland's talent for voting in idiots in no less than in any other European country.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 01:48:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
doubt the ability of finns to be idiots on a european standard. That said, as far as I understand, there hasn't been a strong extremist party in Finland since quite some time now.
by IM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 02:03:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is true. Many multiparty coalitions have kept ideology in check.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 02:11:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
With this result, it is becoming the new normal (assuming you mean Nordic, as Finland is not properly Scandinavian).

Norway has had Fremskrittspartiet on that level for some time now (decades?) and Denmark has Danske Folkeparti.

Iceland has none, afaik.

Sweden has Sverigedemokraterna that reached a top result of 6% and entered parliametn last year.

So with Finland, thrre out of five Nordic countries now has a populist right-wing party in the 15-20% range.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 03:54:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is almost a bit iffy for an outsider to declare: Hey, technically speaking finland is not scandinavian!
And if you just look at the language, estonia is not a baltic state either..
by IM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 04:46:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Scandinavia is a linuguistic/cultural/historic/geographical entity. Which makes it rather ill-defined. Iceland is not in either, it was not an independent state in the 18th century and it is geograpically remote from the mountain range.  I don't think finlanders mind, but I don't know for sure.

The Nordic countries has a political definition - membership in the Nordic Council - which makes it much more well-defined. So nordic is the safe word. So if Estonia becomes a member (I think they have talked about applying), Estonia will become a nordic country.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 05:11:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, we don't like to be called "scandinavians" (except politically) but finns. That is like be called as a swede :).
But that is not completely true. The swedish-speakers in Osthrobotnia are more scandinavians than swedes themselves!
by kjr63 on Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 06:41:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And this is the thanks we get for preventing you from having a border with the Soviet Union! You would have been in NATO long ago.

Let's face it - you owned us, hired the Hakkapeliitta to do all your dirty work around Europe, sucked up to some retarded Frenchie who Napoleon wanted to get out of court and made him King (and look where that got you), and then lost us to the Russians when your imperial ambitions came to naught. You left behind an elite that is linguistically, culturally, and historically Scandinavian.

No, we don't want to be Scandinavian, especially if it means prancing around in clothing that is half circus clown and half international golfer ;-)

</peruss>

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 06:57:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Bernadotte ploy worked quite well for Sweden.

Do you know this:

http://satwcomic.com/

Scandinavia and the world?

The scandinavian countries personified. Finland appears but...

is silent. A commentary on the linguistic division?

by IM on Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 09:22:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I like that one.

Linguistic barrier, and cultural stereotype I think.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 09:34:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't see Finland there...

Finnish taciturnity is based the concept of only speaking when matters of high importance need to be discussed: such as "Are we here to drink or talk?"

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 09:52:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Here and on topic:

http://satwcomic.com/how-the-north-works

Finland is depicted as silent, drinking and always carrying a knife.

And this mentions the estonian situation:

http://satwcomic.com/party-crasher

by IM on Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 11:00:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Finland's there, but does not appear as often as Sweden, Denmark and Norway.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 11:26:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This one was spot on.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Apr 19th, 2011 at 06:02:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's early of course, but if the Center continues to lose as many seats to the True Finns as so far, then we are in for a complex coalition.

One thing to look forward to is a very tired but adrenalin-fuddled Mr Potatohead, leader of the True Finns, making a scandalous malapropic statement in front of the world's press around 22.00. T'will be a fart heard round the world.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 01:46:26 PM EST
Early Vote from here:

National Coalition Party 19.0%
Finnish Social Democratic Party 18.9%
True Finns 18.7%
Finnish Centre Party 18.6%
Left Alliance 8.2%
The Green League 5.9%

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 02:02:37 PM EST
It's neck and neck with the 4 front runners as they hit the four furlong mark. Mr Potatohead has come up the field to take on the mare Red Rum, but has he got the stay for a gelding? Old McDonald is starting to lose the frontrunners. Blue Velvet looks relaxed in this soft going and can turn on the speed as they go into the last furlong.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 02:08:02 PM EST
Blue Velvet and Mr Potatohead lead into the last two furlongs as they come round the unusual right hand turn.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 02:46:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
With 51.4% in:

True Finns 19.0%
Finnish Social Democratic Party
Finnish Centre Party 18.9%
National Coalition Party 18.5%
Left Alliance 8.1%
The Green League 5.8% -
Finnish Swedish People's Party 4.4%
Finnish Christian Democrats (KD) of 4.3%

To quote Sven "Mr Potatohead":

has already said:

Timo Soini ... has pledged to work to block the Portuguese bail-out, sparking alarm in Brussels and across other EU capitals.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 02:17:38 PM EST
I see the truth of the nic-name! With brown face paint, there you go.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 12:41:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
58.7% in:

True Finns 19.3%
Finnish Social Democratic Party 19.0%
Finnish Centre Party 19.0%
National Coalition Party 18.4%
Left Alliance 8.1%
The Green League 5.7%
Finnish Christian Democrats (KD) of 4.3%
Finnish Swedish People's Party 4.2%

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 02:29:28 PM EST
Has every Right Wing party has lost part of their Right Wing to the True Finns?

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 02:32:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why vote for the ersatz Right when you can vote for the True Right?

Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 02:46:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Looks like the True Finns are gaining support across the board.  The biggest loser is the Center Party:

Finnish Social Democratic Party of -2.2
National Coalition -3.6
Centre Party of Finland -5.3
Left Alliance -2
The Green League -2.3

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 03:08:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
61.7% in:

True Finns 19.4%
Finnish Social Democratic Party 19.0%
Finnish Centre Party 18.9%
National Coalition Party 18.4%
Left Alliance 8.1%
The Green League 5.7%
Finnish Christian Democrats (KD) of 4.3%
Finnish Swedish People's Party 4.1%

If this doesn't turn-around real quick ...

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 02:35:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
67% in:

True Finns 19.4%
Finnish Social Democratic Party 19.1%
Finnish Centre Party 18.7%
National Coalition Party 18.4%
Left Alliance 8.1%
The Green League 5.8%
Finnish Christian Democrats (KD) of 4.3%
Finnish Swedish People's Party 4.1%

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 02:47:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
75% in:

True Finns 19.5%
Finnish Social Democratic Party 19.2%
National Coalition Party 18.6%
Finnish Centre Party 18.0%
Left Alliance 8.1%
The Green League 6.1%
Finnish Christian Democrats (KD) of 4.3%
Finnish Swedish People's Party 4.2%

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 03:00:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But the Conservatives have still the most seats according to the projection. What is the reason? Over-represantation of rural regions?
by IM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 03:04:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know why the True Finn seat projection isn't reflecting their vote percentage.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 03:10:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The south - Uusimaa and Helsinki are majority NatCo. The True Finns are doing well, but not at all as well as in the early counted regions. Uusimaa is only 60% counted, Helsinki now 70%.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 03:19:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Would a True Finn + National Coalition Party + Centre Party coalition "work"?

A quick tot-up sums to 55.7%.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 03:25:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Helsinki only 50% counted yet.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 03:08:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At 86%:

True Finns 19.4%
Finnish Social Democratic Party 19.2%
National Coalition Party 19.1%
Finnish Centre Party 17.2%
Left Alliance 8.2%
The Green League 6.5%
Finnish Christian Democrats (KD) of 4.2%
Finnish Swedish People's Party 4.1

Starting to see a sharp drop in Centre Party vote.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 03:22:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
True Finns won't be the biggest party.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 03:25:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As you predicted, the NCP is starting to surge, now.  

How about an NCP + TF + Centre coalition?

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 03:27:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
89.4%:

National Coalition Party takes the lead by a nose:

National Coalition Party 19.4%
True Finns 19.3%
Finnish Social Democratic Party 19.2%
Finnish Centre Party 16.8%
Left Alliance 8.2%
The Green League 6.7%
Finnish Christian Democrats (KD) of 4.2%
Finnish Swedish People's Party 4.1%

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 03:30:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
92.4:

National Coalition Party 19.6%
Finnish Social Democratic Party 19.2%
True Finns 19.2%
Finnish Centre Party 16.5%
Left Alliance 8.2%
The Green League 6.9%
Finnish Swedish People's Party 4.2%
Finnish Christian Democrats (KD) 4.1%


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 03:39:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
95% in and the True Finns drop to third (barely):

National Coalition Party 19.8%
Finnish Social Democratic Party 19.2%
True Finns 19.1%
Finnish Centre Party 16.2%
Left Alliance 8.2%
The Green League 7.0%
Finnish Swedish People's Party 4.3%
Finnish Christian Democrats (KD) 4.1%

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 03:48:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And now the conservatives are in the lead.
Whatever that means, in practical terms.
by IM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 03:30:47 PM EST
Conservatives = Austerity

True Finns = No money at all

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 03:35:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Waht I meant is that at ca. 20%, fosrt and second place seeem to be a bit cosmetic. What matters is the ability to form a  a coalition and here the conservative or centre or the socialdemocrats should be in a much better position then the True Finns.
by IM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 03:47:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry, misunderstood.

Don't know enough to even take a wild-assed guess.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 03:50:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The seating arrangements are now looking final:

NatCo  43
True Finns 39
SDP 42
Centre 35
Left Alliance 15
Green 9
RKP 9
Christian Dems 6

and 2 others

Pro EU = 78 + possible 9 + 6 + 9 = 102
Anti EU = 96.

It aint' over till the potato is peeled.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 03:37:54 PM EST
No Sven. Only True Finns are anti-EU.
by kjr63 on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 05:16:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You're right. Sorry - I should have written anti-bailout, not anti-EU. I was trying to follow the live media conference at the time.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 02:12:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And the social democrats edge in second place.
by IM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 03:39:29 PM EST
That is going to be important.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 03:41:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A Grand Coalition is only going to give the True Finns more populist ammunition about democratic deficits and more votes next time.

Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 03:48:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Another thing to put in the grinder:

The SDP is against the austerity plan of the NCP.  

How that affects government formation is beyond my pay grade.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 03:53:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As predicted, the Center Party got hit hard, losing 16 seats.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 03:45:40 PM EST
Election officials in Oulu, up in True Finn country, announced they were going to be late counting ballots.  

How ... convenient

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 03:56:24 PM EST
YLE  |  Soini: Government Formation May Be Hard.

True Finns Party leader Timo Soini told YLE that he expects post-election government formation talks to be "very interesting". And, while he was still awaiting final results, Soini added, "They may be difficult, too". He did say, however, that the True Finns will be aiming at a place in government.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 04:00:35 PM EST
Well Mr P ain't gonna be PM and not Foreign Min either. But Katainen's potential coalition partners are a tricky choice. RKP is a cert. There'll be riots if the Potatoheads are suppressed in opposition, but for them to drop opposition to EU they'll want a couple of powerful ministries.

I guess it might be a week or three before we get any sign of a functioning government.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 04:11:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Can they drop opposition to the EU?  

From what I can gather that would be a complete 180 from their election promises as well as why they are now the 3rd largest party in the Eduskunta.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 04:32:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Mr P is pretty much a one-man band - capable of anything. I don't think he'll ever give up on the immigration issue, but if they show him a few ppts he might understand why the EU issues should be on the coat for for him to turn. The True Finns could even split if Soini does concede. But I'm probably fantasising.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 04:44:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
YLE |  NCP Biggest Party, True Finns Make Huge Gains

Government formation is expected to be difficult, with True Finns' leader Timo Soini driving a hard bargain on support for Eurozone economies. Social Democrat chair Jutta Urpilainen, nevertheless, said that the populist True Finns deserved a place in government after their strong showing in the ballot.

YLE pundit Risto Uimonen agreed, stating that there was no way the True Finns could now be left out of the negotiations on forming a new government. He warned, though, that the negotiations would be harder than at any time since the 1970s.

So EU economic policy will be going nowhere until Finland has a government and meanwhile Greece is down the tubes, Portugal is teetering on the edge, and Spain awaits its cue.

How ducky wonderful.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 05:30:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Seeing as European economic policy at the moment consists of Morgenthau Plan'ing the Mediterranean, I'm not sure that's such a bad thing.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 08:37:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
YLE | Right Rises in Finnish Election:

The populist True Finns saw their vote rise by 15 percentage points compared with the last election in 2007 to become the biggest party with 75 percent of the vote counted in Finland's parliamentary election. Turnout was high as Finns delivered what will be seen as a large protest vote against the established parties and the bailout of eurozone economies.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 04:04:41 PM EST
Piraattipuolue scored 0,5%, no seats, but biggest outside of parliament beating two minor communist parties, a senior citizen party and a fistful of other minor parties.

First election, so it is an ok result.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 04:13:42 PM EST
Uusimaa and Helsinki still to finish counting.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 04:23:28 PM EST
Have to finish my commentary here. I still want to watch Whoops Apocalypse (the movie) tonight. The first 10 minutes are fantastic, especially the funeral arrangements of the former circus clown and now dead US President. Michael Richards (Cosmo in Seinfeld) also does a funny appearance is the master of disguise terrorist, Lacrobat.

The real story begins here - how to put together a coalition. This story has legs.

Night-night.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 04:51:15 PM EST
National Coalition Party 20.4%
Finnish Social Democratic Party 19.1%
True Finns 19.0%
Finnish Centre Party 15.8%
Left Alliance 8.1%
The Green League 7.2%

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 05:13:10 PM EST
My earlier seat prediction changes only in that NatCO picked up one more seat. They have 44.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 05:14:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Remember that with PR, straight percentages can be misleading.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 05:15:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Finding a government coalition will be extremely difficult. Also The bank bailout will now be extremely difficult. Kokoomus (NCP) will have get their government partner to betray their election promises. Old coalition is now all too small. Also very difficult is to keep the populist party out.
by kjr63 on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 05:25:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
See the YLE link, up thread, and my attached comment.

No way to keep Perussuomalaiset out of the next government.  Meaning you've got a hell of a crisis looming o'er the pond, me ducks.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 05:39:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, a bit scary. But if you mean that only PS will block the bank bailout, that's not so. SDP will have extremely difficult to accept that. Their campaign was based on Portugal debt restructuring and they were most likely serious. It will be very disappointing if they give up to NCP.
by kjr63 on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 05:47:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm aware of that.

Out of the three big parties:

NCP: For bail-out, Pro-Austerity

SDP: For bail-out, Anti-Austerity

TF:  Against bail out,  Pro/Anti-Austerity doesn't matter

How you can form a consensus governing EU economic policy out of this escapes me.  Somebody has to give.

I think the most likely is the SDP will be in opposition to a NCP/TF/Center Party government, with an 18 seat majority. The TF agrees to the bail-out but only on condition of cranking the Austerity to eleven.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 07:02:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Forgot to add: the NCP will do a little kabuki media dance by announcing they are negotiating with the SDP.  The negotiations will fail and the NCP will be "forced" to form a government with the TF and CP.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 07:05:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
SDP: For bail-out, Anti-Austerity

Yes, debt restructuring. No increased tax-payer guarantees without bank/investor haircut.

How you can form a consensus governing EU economic policy out of this escapes me.

You can't. "Pro bailout, pro-austerity - party" is in a minority. And it is difficult to see anybody giving up.

I think the most likely is the SDP will be in opposition to a NCP/TF/Center Party government, with an 18 seat majority. The TF agrees to the bail-out but only on condition of cranking the Austerity to eleven.

I agree with this. But, i doubt Center Party is excited about this scenario.

by kjr63 on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 07:19:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
On the contrary, they will be very happy. They will get to bail out their bankster friends, impose crippling conditionalities, and blame all the misery caused by their neo-Hooverian policies on the True Finns. Meanwhile, the True Finns get to be more Serious than the Social Democrats, because they're part of the deal and the SocDems are not. And the deal will be so bad that they can tell their base that Portugal is being properly punished for its sinful behaviour.

What's not to like?

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 08:43:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That is my question too. Government makes senses for the True Finns and the National Coalition, but shouldn't the center party shun government after their heavy losses?

Maybe they think after this election that the social democrats in opposition are not to be feared.

by IM on Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 03:39:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From what I understand about Finnish politics, NCP will as biggest party likely form a coalition with a NCP PM.

The Center Party will go into opposition. Loosing a great percentage means opposition, unless you are still the biggest.

Traditionally, this has meant that two of the big three forms a coalition - NCP+SDP, NCP+CP, SDP+CP - with a scattering of minor parties to reach about 110 seats (101 is a majority, but you have to be able to harbour mavericks without bringing the party down).

The fact that there are four big ones now will bring a rewrite of the rules, one way or the other. I think NCP+SDP+TF is pretty likely.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 05:24:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
YLE | Three Largest Parties To Start Negotiations

Both True Finns' leader Timo Soini and National Coalition party (NCP) chair Jyrki Katainen believe that a government composed of the three largest parties following Sunday's parliamentary vote is likely.

also:

The Centre Party's party secretary Timo Laaninen did not want to give an opinion on the likely composition of the next government. He seconded party chair Mari Kiviniemi's view that as the biggest losers in the election, the Centre party should now move into opposition.

Props to A swedish kind of death.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Apr 19th, 2011 at 11:11:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We still haven't talked about electing Finnish dairies.

A meijeri cos has a sad

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 17th, 2011 at 05:21:02 PM EST
The mire gets deeper and more gnarly.
by Pope Epopt on Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 03:34:14 AM EST
The bail-out might be accepted before a new government is formed. That way National Coalition would get the bail-out accepted before forming an anti-bail-out government with True Finns.
by Jute on Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 05:15:09 AM EST
Not possible.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 05:39:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why not? Finland would have a parliament soon even if it won't have new government. If National Coalition, Center, and Swedish party vote for bailout they have 88 votes. If Social Democrats abstain, which they may be more than willing to do because they are pro-european, True Finns and all other parties have less votes.
by Jute on Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 06:55:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A formula for rioting on the streets...

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 06:58:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Who's going to riot? Only one in ten Finns voted for TF, and they did it for multitude of reasons, like obligatory Swedish in school, Vuotos reservoir, insecurity due multiculturalism...
I think their parliamentary group is so multicultural in itself it won't stay together to the next elections.

And nice to take to part in this interesting forum, everybody!

by Opinicus on Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 08:37:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Welcome to ET, Opinicus!
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 08:45:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Even if it is legally possible to introduce items before voting on the new government (which I do not know) I think it would go to much against accepted ways, that it would be perceived as a coup.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 09:02:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That is impossible. There is no government. No one has the mandate to make even a proposition to vote. And if that could happen, no one would participate.
by kjr63 on Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 04:33:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I didn't know there were that many swarthy types in Finland.

Or, is this just a ruse by your ex-wife to have you deported? ;)

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!

by LEP on Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 07:08:22 AM EST
I do spend a great deal of my time with Swedish speakers, so I guess when the perkele tumbrel rolls out I may be picked. OTOH I sat at the Finnish table at last Saturday's Jazz Dinner.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 08:14:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
LEP:
I didn't know there were that many swarthy types in Finland.

There isn't, Finlands immigration policies (except for Nordic neighbours and recently EU citizens) are extremely strict. If anything this result shows that there is no correlation with the anti-foreigner sentiment and the presence of actual foreigners.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 08:57:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If anything this result shows that there is no correlation with the anti-foreigner sentiment and the presence of actual foreigners.

Well, isn't that interesting!

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!

by LEP on Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 10:05:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There are about half-a-dozen Jews in Ireland. Doesn't stop the older generation (at least) being casually racist towards Jews.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 19th, 2011 at 05:56:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There isn't, Finlands immigration policies (except for Nordic neighbours and recently EU citizens) are extremely strict.

I don't know about that. This isn't 1980's anymore.

If anything this result shows that there is no correlation with the anti-foreigner sentiment and the presence of actual foreigners.

I agree with this. Similar sentiments happened in 1990. Households are in debt, government pushes wages down, working age up, services down and privatises public domain. Neoliberal austerity and all parties are the same. So, people reject church, blame immigrants and vote "alternative."

by kjr63 on Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 05:26:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If anything this result shows that there is no correlation with the anti-foreigner sentiment and the presence of actual foreigners.

I can confirm this. For twenty years, I lived in a tiny rural locality in France where the Front National regularly got 15 to 20% of the couple of hundred voters. For most of that time, I was their only foreigner. I may be wrong, but I don't think they were voting against me personally.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Apr 19th, 2011 at 05:51:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
EDITORIAL: Timo Soini rewrote the electoral history books

As the election's biggest winner, the True Finns would undoubtedly have every right to a seat in government, but their path in this direction may end in the government programme discussions, at least if Katainen and Soini remain firmly entrenched in their opposing positions on the bailout of Portugal.
      To be fair, both party leaders were noticeably conciliatory in their initial comments on election night as the result became clear.
      Then again, the two parties are divided by a good deal more than simply their attitudes towards the European Union.

In fact one might say after this election that the True Finns have both a right and a duty to participate in the next government.
      For all that, the True Finns' government road may be a rather bumpy one, not least because the other parties with whom they might share a coalition do not necessarily trust that the True Finns' parliamentary group will remain in one piece for the full duration of the electoral term.
      The result of this election was so unusual that even the coining of a suitable nickname to describe the possible new government has proved problematic. So far the best effort has been "True Blue and Red".



You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 08:06:49 AM EST
YLE | Soini Promises "New Suggestions" on EU Bailouts

As Finland's eurosceptic-in-chief sees it, the EU's entire approach to the financial crisis has been wrong since day one. He argues that German and French banks should have been forced to recapitalise and Greece allowed to default.

"I think that's the way it will go anyway," he says. "It's time for a new plan. Everybody wants to get rid of the turmoil in the economies and money markets. But the answer is not a federal state policy. It must be a policy that pays attention to the real hard facts of economics."



She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 11:10:12 PM EST
You know things are bad when foaming-at-the-mouth nationalists are offering more sensible policy prescriptions than Bruxelles.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Apr 18th, 2011 at 11:27:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And why is that not a federal state policy?...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Apr 19th, 2011 at 05:34:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The 4th largest political party in Finland is largely hidden from public view, and yet the voters themselves supposedly own the party.

The 'party' is S-Group -  a 'cooperative' of cooperatives in retail and services with 1600 outlets around Finland (with a smaller presence in the Baltics and St Petersburg). The roots of the company are in the late 19th century.

S-Group claims that its members are 'client-owners'. Membership involves more than a loyalty card, but much less than a real cooperative.

The influence of the 'party' comes from the 36 members of the current parliament that sit on S-Group boards at regional and national level. These 'representatives' come from many different political parties including the Left Alliance. Another hidden 'retail cooperative' party is the Tradeka group - with 18 MPs - mostly from the Left.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Apr 19th, 2011 at 02:40:47 AM EST
The employment of politicians on boards for nuanced lobbying is nothing new. S-Group though has also taken it down to street level (where they operate) by co-opting and supporting local politicians and civil servants. This is where a lot of the detailed decisions that affect their business are made.

Is it lobbying? Is it healthy? Is it any different from the manner in which religions as businesses (at least) are represented in parliaments?

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Apr 19th, 2011 at 09:26:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Differences Bubble Under Within True Finns' Ranks

Differences of opinion could be bubbling under within the ranks of the True Finns party's parliamentary group. According to answers posted on YLE's election machine, the group does not, for example, adhere to a common stance on the construction of additional nuclear energy.

Eleven True Finns parliamentarians favour the granting of a licence to construct a new nuclear plant, while 24 oppose it, the election machine survey shows. Two parliamentarians were undecided.



You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Apr 19th, 2011 at 04:01:28 AM EST
Eurointelligence Daily Briefing: True Fins at 19% - what now? (Google link)
EFSF/ESM critical parties registered large gains in Finnish elections; hard to predict impact on the Finnish position on the EFSF loan to Portugal as weeks of coalition talks lie ahead; Juri Katainen, Finland's most probable next PM, says he wants to lead a pro-European government; S&P warns that Portuguese banks may not be able to refinance themselves this year; troika descends on Lisbon for talks on rescue package with mid-May deadline; IMF wants lower interest for Portugal; confusion reigns [on] Greek debt sustainability: IMF reportedly said Greek debt not sustainable; German finance ministry denies working on a Brady bond plan; head of Bundestag insists on full co-decision rights with government on EFSF/ESM; 12 FDP MPs want to vote against the ESM, insisting on a forced eurozone exit clause instead; Wolfgang Münchau, meanwhile, predicts that the EU will kick the can down the road, until we reach the moment of the toxic mega bailout.


Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 19th, 2011 at 08:47:25 AM EST
the toxic mega bailout

Would that be a bailout of German banks upon an actual (Greek, Irish or Portuguese) sovereign default, a bailout of Spain or both? And, to whom, besides export surplus countries, would it be toxic?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Apr 19th, 2011 at 10:23:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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