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Clearly, we have a public debt crisis

by Jerome a Paris Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 04:27:56 PM EST

FT - German 10-year yields dipped below the domestic rate of inflation briefly on Tuesday, for the first time since at least 1960. Britain’s benchmark borrowing costs, as measured by 10-year gilt yields, fell to lows not seen since 1946. US 10-year yields hit new year-lows of 2.65 per cent.
Clearly the markets are telling governments they won't lend to them anymore, and they want austerity and less government spending. Right? Otherwise they wouldn't be selling bonds and pushing interest rates to record high levels... Oh wait.

(Imagine the cost of wind kWh if the investment were discounted at a 2.65% rate... We'd be entering 'too cheap to meter' territory...)


Display:
Macroeconomic Folly - Paul Krugman - NYTimes.com

All of a sudden, people seem to have noticed that policy is moving in exactly the wrong direction. We're getting headlines like this: Debt Deal Puts U.S. on Austerity Path as Economy Falters.

I'll need to write up my thoughts here at greater length, but let's just say for now that what we've witnessed pretty much throughout the western world is a kind of inverse miracle of intellectual failure. Given a crisis that should have been relatively easy to solve -- and, more than that, a crisis that anyone who knew macroeconomics 101 should have been well-prepared to deal with -- what we actually got was an obsession with problems we didn't have. We've obsessed over the deficit in the face of near-record low interest rates, obsessed over inflation in the face of stagnant wages, and counted on the confidence fairy to make job-destroying policies somehow job-creating.



Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
by Bernard on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 04:34:45 PM EST
Gingrich: Obama's W.H. a `Krugman presidency' - On Media - POLITICO.com
Newt Gingrich may not be reading New York Times columnist Paul Krugman's columns very carefully.

On Monday, Gingrich appeared on Bill O'Reilly's Fox News show and said that President Barack Obama's tenure in the White House "is a Paul Krugman presidency."

"He believes that stuff. He actually believes in left-wing economic idea. The only problem with them is it doesn't work," said Gingrich. "All the advisers he has and ideas he has are wrong."


Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 05:02:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The RW isn't about Reality.  It's about Money and Power.   And they will do and say anything to grab as much of both as they can.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 05:35:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And apparently both Republicans and Democrats constitute the right wing. If there's a left wing it's not flapping very hard. Just two right wings and they're going into a tail spin.
by Andhakari on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 07:28:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And this is Krugman's reaction (short version: ROTFLMAO):

Bwahahahaha, Newt Edition Paul Krugman - NYTimes.com

Yes, I'm secretly giving Barack marching orders, and only pretending to be deeply frustrated by his actions and rhetoric.

Incidentally, those "left-wing economic ideas" are Economics 101; and try stacking up my economic predictions over the past few years against any of Gingrich's favorites.

Speaking of which, the interest rate on US 10-year bonds is currently 2.62%. Crowding out!



Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
by Bernard on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 04:31:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Chinese agency cuts U.S. debt rating again. Move unlikely to move markets, even in Hong Kong

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Chinese credit-rating agency Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. on Wednesday again downgraded U.S. sovereign debt and warned of further such moves, the state-run Xinhua news agency reported, though the action was unlikely to affect markets.

Dagong cut U.S. Treasurys to A from A+, with a negative outlook, saying growth in U.S. debt is still outpacing revenue growth.

The latest move followed a Dangong downgrade of U.S. debt from AA to A+ in November, citing the launch of the Federal Reserve's second round of quantitative easing.

"The agency said the approval to raise the debt ceiling indicated that there will not be any positive changes in factors that will influence the country's debt-paying ability in the long run," Xinhua reported.



As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 10:58:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
30-Year Treasuries are yielding about 3.9%.  10-Years are at 2.6%.  People will literally hand the governments money just to park it somewhere safe now.

We're watching a slow-motion panic.

[Drew's WHEEEEE™ Technology]

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 05:19:11 PM EST
On the good side we should be seeing the Dow rise as foreign holders start dumping Treasuries for claims on Real Assets.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 05:34:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not gonna happen.  At the end of the day, people will park their money with the big dawgs (US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc).

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 05:36:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Until them dawgs don't hunt.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 05:45:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, yeah, but I'm not comfortable imagining that scenario yet.  I'll stick my fingers in my ears and shout "LALALALALALA" for a while first, thank you. ;)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 05:47:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
DAMN!

When were you appointed to President Obama's economic advisory team?

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 05:54:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That would be a pretty hilarious interview.

Obama: "Well, look.  So, DREW!  What do...um...you THINK...WE SHOULD DO?"

Me: "Have NASA build a time machine and go back and make Krugman Dictator of the World?"

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 05:58:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That would be DARPA, not NASA. ;)

   

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 07:57:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Better go with Steve Keen. He has a much better tool box.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 08:06:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
While we're dreaming, can we have Buiter as head of the IMF, and that Spanish banker who said never to buy anything he didn't understand for head of the ECB?

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Aug 4th, 2011 at 01:45:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You mean this guy?

And this other guy?



Economics is politics by other means

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Aug 6th, 2011 at 04:55:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah. Both of them are more understandable than Trichet. Though perhaps mostly because Trichet is deliberately obfuscatory.

I want them for heads of central banks, not as television hosts.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Aug 6th, 2011 at 05:27:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Let's give Buiter Dutch nationality and make him ECB president instead.

Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Aug 6th, 2011 at 04:56:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually, at current inflation targets, 2.6 % - let alone 3.9 % - is the government handing people free money for stuffing cash into their pillow.

The precise economic benefit of encouraging people to use such expensive pillow-stuffing escapes me. But perhaps that is because I am crass and shrill.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Aug 4th, 2011 at 01:41:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We have a serious euro-ECB crisis. Spain and Italy will be force to austeristan.... 10-year bonds above 6%. Crazy stuff.

Or eurobonds are created soon, or the euro will disappear (together with all the deficit-countries). Next in line, France.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 05:27:34 PM EST
Bund yields are low, so everything is going swimmingly with the Euro. Get with the programme.

Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 05:29:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Jesus, the Italy-Germany spread on 10-Years is headed north of 4 points.  Pretty huge spike today.

Give it another Friedman and we may not recognize the world.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 05:35:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A week or two ago we were being told that if spreads over Bunds remain above 4% for a substantial length of time, Spain and Italy would be insolvent and would have to tap the EFSF. Spain's spread broke 4% today for the first time.

Perhaps not coincidentally, today ZP had begun his brief summer vacation after announcing elections in November.

Italy has threatened to withdraw its guarantee of 18% of the EFSF's bond issues if its funding costs exceed Greece's. As we know, the European Summit two weeks ago insisted on pretending the only topic of interest was Greece and ignore that the crisis had already spread to Italy.

Meanwhile, any news on France's AAA rating?

Economics is politics by other means

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 05:42:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The France-Germany spread hit 75 basis points today, too.

If France goes, then fuck it.  I'm moving to the Northwest Territories or something and checking out.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 05:43:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The market crash this autumn is going to be epic.

Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 05:44:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
[Drew's Crystal Ball of GAAAAAHHHHH™ Technology]

Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 05:45:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You mean my inverse SP500 is finally going to go positive?

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 08:08:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Autumn? What autumn? What's the tipping point here in terms of bond spreads? The dynamic is unmanageable it seems.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 09:04:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm moving to the Northwest Territories or something...

Perhaps Alberta? The climate will be moderating over your lifetime. I am getting FS&T of days with a 110F heat index myself. (I thought it would take longer for the Arctic to melt when I moved to the Ozarks :-) ). Just be sure to get enough land for a large garden and chickens, at a minimum. But the winters will still be a bitch for decades.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 08:25:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's what I thought with the move to Bavaria, but don't have a garden and chickens yet. Looking for house to rent with yard for garden, fruit trees, fireplace or wood-burning stove and storage cellar.

'tis strange I should be old and neither wise nor valiant. From "The Maid's Tragedy" by Beaumont & Fletcher
by Wife of Bath (kareninaustin at g mail dot com) on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 03:47:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sure looks like an improvement on Austin just now.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 07:13:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, yeah.  It's not just San Antonio comprising part of the New Texas Desert.  My daughter and grandkids still live there, and we still own a house there that's rented out. Branches are cracking and falling from the trees for lack of water.

'tis strange I should be old and neither wise nor valiant. From "The Maid's Tragedy" by Beaumont & Fletcher
by Wife of Bath (kareninaustin at g mail dot com) on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 11:31:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What's interesting to watch has been that French yields have remained very stable at 3.35% (with movement of only a few basis points each way) and the spread has gone up only because the Bunds' yield has gone down - suggesting that the German paper is behaving as a safe haven, with money coming for "shelter" when running away from other eurozone country markets.

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 02:11:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
More broadly some of the dosh that is sloshing around is coming out of stocks and fleeing to safety, ie the 10-years of the nations widely considered least likely to be speculatively attacked.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 02:56:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Germany is now attacking a 51 billion euro customer in Italy having savaged a 31.3 billion euro customer in Spain.  (2009 figures)

Seems kinda silly.  But I'm not an economist.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 05:41:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So basically German politicians are letting all their neighbors economies burn rather than tell heir own millionaires to man up and pay the cost of their own stupidity?

So we need german politicians that are honest and don't buy into the "We're Northern Europeans so we're hard working and all the money  we get is what we rightfully deserve, while all the Southerners are lazy feckless fools and they only get money through ripping us off" meme.

I think we're all in big big trouble folks.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 06:23:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So basically German politicians are letting all their neighbors economies burn rather than tell heir own millionaires to man up and pay the cost of their own stupidity?

yup.  T'wat it 'tis.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 06:34:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Im sure that Exceptionalism in national myths is the problem. (and is almost universally lunacy)

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 06:49:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's a human thing.  Everybody thinks the sun shines out of their arses and when it dont:  it's THEM!  The dreaded THEM wot done it.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 07:06:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Somebody talked yesterday about Edward Bernay's "Propaganda".

I would like to believe that we have been highly conditioned to be a bunch of hedonistic self-centered assholes. I actually do believe that, as social creatures, we are our cultural millieu, and that cultural millieu has been highly tweaked in favour of a very despicable thing. Indeed, reading about (pre-war) mutualistic forms of organization in the labour movement can be a source of hope.

We can do different (both better and worse).

by cagatacos on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 06:07:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
cagatacos:
I would like to believe that we have been highly conditioned to be a bunch of hedonistic self-centered assholes.

self flagellation as traditional european hobby.

miserable sinners, doomed to hell...

i happen to agree with you, but find it more compassionate to diagnose collective PTSD, whole post-industrial generations, dotted with tragically few examples of sanity, mental balance, sense of proportion, or perspective.

our greatest minds, from wells, huxley, poe, milton, dante, goethe, orwell, koestler, hesse, laing et al all perceived the fault lines in our moral grounding and warned us not to trust them as foundations.

imagine trying to navigate this mess without their counsel and foresight! <shudder>...

It's a fine line between homage, parody, and consumer opportunism. Jess Walter

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 03:41:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
on this issue? are there any german parties dissenting from this madness?
by wu ming on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 04:21:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sure. Note the typical condescending and ignorant dismissal.

Regierungsschelte: Gysi warnt vor Versailles-Politik gegenüber Griechenland - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Politik government scolding: Gysi warns of Versailles policy towards Greece - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International
Berlin - Der Vergleich hinkt gewaltig: Linken-Fraktionschef Gregor Gysi hat der Bundesregierung eine "Versailles-Politik" gegenüber Griechenland vorgeworfen - und damit vermutlich eine Parallele zu den Beschlüssen im gleichnamigen Friedensvertrag nach dem Ersten Weltkrieg gezogen. Mit Blick auf die Forderungen der schwarz-gelben Koalition an die Regierung in Athen sagte Gysi: "Mit den ganzen Auflagen ruinieren wir Griechenland."Berlin - Misleading comparison: the Left party leader Gregor Gysi, accused the federal government of a "Versailles" policy toward Greece - and thus probably drew a parallel with the decisions in the peace treaty of the same name after World War I. With regard to the demands of the black-yellow coalition to the government in Athens Gysi said: "With all the constraints we ruin Greece."
Der Linken-Politiker sprach sich dafür klar gegen einen Austritt Griechenlands aus der Euro-Zone aus. In so einem Fall "würden die Griechen ihre Währung so abwerten, dass wir dort nichts mehr verkaufen könnten", gab Gysi zu bedenken. Man müsse ehrlicherweise sagen, dass der Euro am meisten Deutschland nütze, sagte er.The Left Party politicians spoke out clearly against an exit of Greece from the euro zone. In such a case, "the Greeks would devalue their currency so that we couldn't sell anything there anymore," Gysi offered for consideration. One must honestly say that Germany profits most from the € he said.


Von überall könnte das Volk, Urbrut alles Undemokratischen, Zelle des Terrors, über die gewählten Hüter von Wachstum und Wohlstand® kommen. - flatter
by generic on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 04:50:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Left Party politicians spoke out clearly against an exit of Greece from the euro zone. In such a case, "the Greeks would devalue their currency so that we couldn't sell anything there anymore,

Grrrr that's the problem!

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 07:23:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What about Finland ? Won't they tank as soon as Nokia tanks ? And boy, do they tank!

7 years to go !
by pi (etrib@opsec.eu) on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 07:46:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, alliances with Microsoft tends to do that.

But Finland is more then Nokia's telephones (and Nokia's tires etc).

CIA - The World Factbook - Finland - Exports

electrical and optical equipment, machinery, transport equipment, paper and pulp, chemicals, basic metals; timber

Finland also has a whopping 7% current account surplus. So I doubt they will be first to go. Of course once their customers dry up, exporting countries are hit hard. Which is part of what makes the current course appear so mad. Northern Europe is helping the markets kill of their customers.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 01:46:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What do you think of Wetterberg's Nordic Federation?

From everything I can gather -- basis on my invincible ignorance?  :-) -- it makes a whole bunch of sense economically.  

I don't know enough to say if it (1) makes sense or (2) is even possible, politically.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 01:52:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It would make a whole lot of sense, and I doubt there would be much public resistance - even our nationalists cooperate over the borders. But it has right now no movement or critical reason - like a common threath. Which makes it a political non-starter.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!
by A swedish kind of death on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 02:54:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Austerity is not going away for the PIIGS. That's just impossible politically. But this means demand is gonna crash. So what can actually be done about this big bloody mess? I've previously argued for defaults and against eurobonds. Well, I think we're gonna need both defaults/massive haircuts and eurobonds by now, and we also need some kind of vehicle, like the European Investment Bank on steroids and fueled by eurobonds, to launch and or finance (bonds/equity/hybrid capital of some kind/whatever) massive infrastructure programs throughout the whole damn periphery.

All those French and German banks better start thinking about topping up their equity, and fast. With government-backed rights issues if needed. Time to bite the bullet.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 08:06:12 PM EST
All those French and German banks better start thinking about topping up their equity

I think it is three or four years too late for that. And the German banks have long operated on >2% reserves. I don't remember the rationalization. If the sovereign debt defaults don't get them the private defaults will. The only thing that will set the stage for a recovery is to stop extending and pretending, write down debt to reasonable levels, euthanize the existing banking sector and set up new or pump up existing good banks. The problem is that the world is awash in bad debt, plagued by criminal banks and bankers and largely devoid of effective regulation and law enforcement in the financial sector.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 08:17:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't remember the rationalization.

"Government debt is triple-A, and called risk-free interest rate according to my texbook by Mankiw, so what could possibly go wrong?"

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 08:24:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That means only political insanity could lead to a default. Makes me sleep better tonight.

Von überall könnte das Volk, Urbrut alles Undemokratischen, Zelle des Terrors, über die gewählten Hüter von Wachstum und Wohlstand® kommen. - flatter
by generic on Tue Aug 2nd, 2011 at 08:48:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Irrespective of reasons, I suppose there is some reasonable agreement around here that the direction that is being followed will lead to a kind of "reset". Most probably when Italy or Spain hit the fan (too big to fail, too big to save, or whatever).

Therefore I propose that the most useful discussions are:

  1. What will happen when TSHTF? Nothing special? Cascading defaults? If cascading defaults, how serious will it be? Not much? War? Euro break-up?

  2. What can we do to mitigate things (assuming that they are serious, which they might NOT be)? How to prepare individually? And in our neighbourhood? And as nations? And as (gulp) Europeans?

While I understand the point of showing that we could have done better, I think it is time to start discussing and preparing potential "big dislocations" (making 2008 seeming like a walk-in-the-park).
by cagatacos on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 06:15:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think a lot of people are asking this.

Short term, I suppose the entire financial system falls apart. Worst case at street level is that it's no longer possible to pay for anything, either because the bank has lost your money, or because it no longer wants to give it to you, or because it's worthless anyway.

At that point you get rioting and possibly rationing and martial law.

Longer term, I don't think anyone knows. Worst case is total end-of-Roman-empire collapse and/or global war. Some countries (I'm thinking of South America) may be better placed to ride this out than the West.

Best case is probably a lost decade with 25-30% unemployment, massive homelessness, and other cheerful things.

Either way, a reset seems inevitable. It's a question of when, how severe, and how intelligently controlled. (That last one is the real worry.)

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 07:08:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Mormon advice to the faithful to have months worth of food stored safely away in case of natural disaster, loss of employment or economic dislocation seems particularly cogent just now. And, after all, food is not getting cheaper, nor is it likely to. When you're right you're right.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 07:23:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In case of default, you'll get lots of bankrupt banks, and the government will finally be forced to do what they actively avoided to do last time round: take over the systematically important bits of the system by nationalising the banks, providing the liquidity and instructions to keep the payments system running, and forcing the creditors of the banks (other banks to a good extent) to take a bath.

That would de facto create the debt jubilee we've long said was necessary.

The shock doctrine version of that is that governments only take over the liabilities of the banking system (à la Ireland) and all become bankrupt in turn, forcing savage cuts in all public spending. But that would result in such savage dislocation that I don't think enough of the Serious People will go for it.

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 08:39:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well - that's optimistic.

But considering that so many of the Serious People are functionally insane, I can't quite share your optimism at this point.

Would the Koch Brothers really care if the US burned? Or would they hole up in a bunker somewhere with a small private army, and enjoy the video feeds?

Seriously - this is now a combination of Russian Roulette and Poker. And it's really not obvious to me how far down into the world of crazy some of the players will be willing to go.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 11:48:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Just to add - and don't forget some of them actually want to kill governments. So national bankruptcies and an ability to make good on basic social obligations would be a very good thing for them, rather than a very bad one.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 11:50:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And some, like the Koch Bros. have deliberately positioned themselves so that their wealth is in energy, food and the transportation for the same. And they have heavily funded the Tea Party. Many elected representatives claiming Tea Party affiliation have publicly discounted the risks of default and done every thing in their power to provoke a default. For them it is win-win. Blow up finance and their asset based wealth becomes relatively more valuable or extract concession after concession from the rest of Congress and Obama that have the effect of blowing up the government -- the only institution that could conceivably stand against them. Unless the voters wisen up in sufficient numbers they will eventually accomplish both goals. It is time we took them and those like them as the threat they are.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 12:17:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I find this incredible even in the face of credible evidence that the Kochs are pursuing such a policy simply because a total breakdown of public order of the kind that would result would render all their vaunted assets nugatory: a universal economic system is the matrix that holds their assets together. Without that they and their minions are just another isolated pack of crackpot survivalists.

Would a modern Hannah Arndt be writing today about the "cluelessness of evil"?

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 04:00:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They may not care if there is a default, as they have positioned themselves optimally for a collapse. If they want a collapse the well may figure that order will eventually be restored and they will be in a much much stronger position when that occurs, possibly in charge. Comparative advantage.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 10:04:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It depends on the extent of the collapse of course. But if it's so complete that money is worthless and ownership of assets beyond, say, one day's ground travel cannot be asserted, I think they might find themselves at a comparative disadvantage.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Thu Aug 4th, 2011 at 02:42:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But then our Schadenfreude will be worthless too...

Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Aug 4th, 2011 at 02:50:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Time to post Bob The Angry Flower.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Aug 4th, 2011 at 11:55:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Things don't always turn out as planned. And they likely have beliefs that rationalize/justify their actions as necessary and virtuous. But I suggest you look at Mark Ames and Yasha Levine's articles in The EXILEd (free no more). I doubt that it is an accident that they are positioned as they are and are simultaneously advocating policies and funding agit-prop via the Tea Party as they are.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Aug 4th, 2011 at 07:52:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
a total breakdown of public order of the kind that would result would render all their vaunted assets nugatory: a universal economic system is the matrix that holds their assets together.

My abiding fear is that they neither understand nor believe this.

We are talking about people who profess to regard private property as a divine right, and argue publicly that they should be free to buy anything - including private militias - on the open market. While one should not discount the possibility that they are simply lying for public consumption, I do not think it wholly prudent to not at least ask the question: "What if they really are insane?"

Remember, this is inherited wealth. They have never in their entire lives been forced to look beyond their far-right cult.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Aug 4th, 2011 at 02:23:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
JakeS:
My abiding fear is that they neither understand nor believe this.

Yes I know, present evidence points in this direction. And I'm an abiding believer in the default assumption of stupidity and/or error as the most rational explanation.

Still, that they could so little understand that which defines them makes them when all is said and done - boggles the mind.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Fri Aug 5th, 2011 at 04:15:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Considering the in-bred cretins routinely produced by Eton and Oxbridge, I find it wholly unsurprising.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Aug 5th, 2011 at 04:26:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As there are plenty of insane (or just cynical?) ideas left out there. The following pretends to be some kind of moderate centrism, but it is what I'd call icy-cold class politics.

Excerpts:

I agree that budget deficits were appropriate during the great recession and, for that reason, the kind of balanced-budget rule currently proposed by some Republicans should be avoided. However, since government spending is warranted only if it passes the usual hurdles of social rates of return, the fiscal deficit should have concentrated on tax reductions, especially those that emphasised falls in marginal tax rates, which encourage investment and growth.

Despite relief at the debt-ceiling agreement, America's fiscal situation remains deeply problematic. Any attempt to head off a crisis of government competence must begin with serious long-term reform. Reductions in the long-term path of entitlement outlays have to be put on the table, with increases in ages of eligibility a part of any solution.

We also need sharp reductions in spending programmes initiated or expanded by Mr Obama and his extravagant predecessor, George W. Bush. Given the inevitable growth of the main entitlement programmes, especially healthcare, increases in long-term federal revenue must be part of an overall reform.

So what, specifically, can be done? An effective future tax package would begin by setting US corporate and estate tax rates permanently to zero, given these taxes are inefficient and generate little revenue. Next, it would gradually phase out major "tax-expenditure" items, such as tax preferences for home-mortgage interest, state and local income taxes, and employee fringe benefits.

The structure of marginal income-tax rates should then be lowered. Marginal rates should particularly not increase where they are already high, such as at upper incomes. The bulk of any extra revenue needed to make up the difference should then be raised via a broad-based, flat-rate expenditure tax, such as a value added tax.



Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Thu Aug 4th, 2011 at 08:16:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Jerome a Paris:
That would de facto create the debt jubilee we've long said was necessary.

Yes, that would be the right thing to do.

Jerome a Paris:

The shock doctrine version of that is that governments only take over the liabilities of the banking system (à la Ireland) and all become bankrupt in turn, forcing savage cuts in all public spending.

That, however, is the most likely to happen.

Jerome a Paris:

But that would result in such savage dislocation that I don't think enough of the Serious People will go for it.

Surely, you noticed what is happening to Greece?


Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.

by Bernard on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 03:49:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Surely, you noticed what is happening to Greece?

But it can never happen to "us".

Economics is politics by other means

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 05:58:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In case of default, you'll get lots of bankrupt banks, and the government will finally be forced to do what they actively avoided to do last time round: take over the systematically important bits of the system by nationalising the banks, providing the liquidity and instructions to keep the payments system running, and forcing the creditors of the banks (other banks to a good extent) to take a bath.

This is what will have to happen, in some form or another. Because the alternatives are too horrible to contemplate.

Unfortunately, there is a vast, yawning chasm between "will have to happen" and "will actually happen."

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Aug 4th, 2011 at 02:23:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Spent some time looking at the probable course of events over the next ten years.  Keep coming back to the same barrier: cannot predict how the politicians are going to respond.  So far they've been doing all the wrong things, for all the wrong reasons; throwing their lot in with the banksters¹ against their citizens or subjects.  If that continues, and there's no evidence they won't, things are going to get grim.  How grim depends on how long and strong the politicians support the banksters.  

Isn't that a nice little feedback loop?

Anyway, we're in a global recession and with the recent debt ceiling debacle in the US another 2 or 3 percent has been whacked off global GNP.  Mathematically this means an input into the positive feedback loop in the negative direction has been given a sharp boost.  When that happens the chances of causing an iterated functional system cascade failure sharply increases.  The mathematical question is: which type of cascade failure is likely to result?  Exponential?  Power Law?  Chaotic?  Topos contraction?  I don't know and without knowing might as well put all possible future states on a wall and throw a dart at them to get a prediction.  Which means it's impossible to construct a Model with any accuracy.

If you can't construct a Model analysis can only be based on human Decision Making and human Decision Making during a cascade failure, tipping point, instantiation of Emergent Phenomena, etc., is known to be wrong 'bout 88% of the time in the best of times and up to 98% in the worst.

Oddly, predicting the course of future events does NOT mean one cannot predict a high-value strategy to prepare for the course of those events.  We have enough evidence of successful past actions during Depressions to be able to strategize about how to prepare for a Depression.

  1.  Get out of debt.  Cannot emphasis this enough. Going into a Depression with debt is a sure way to be hosed.  A collapsing economy means a shrinking work force meaning a drop of income meaning debt service (interest payments) consumes an ever-larger percentage of personal income.  

  2.  Co-operate along any axis you can think of: housing, food, energy, & so on. Build those structures now. The fact is a group of people are more economically secure at ANY time and even more-so during a Depression.  

  3.  Localize.  Local production, again, of anything you can think of is more secure.  The danger here is the politicians could decide to "requisition," i.e., steal, your local production of, say, food to prevent unrest, riots, revolution, by major urban populations.  

  4.  Network.  The more extensive your network the better.  People like to deal with people they know (the "us" syndrome) and if it comes down to a choice between doing whatever with a known person and an unknown person ... known wins.

  5.  Real economic activity is better than Unreal.  Being a plumber (Polish or otherwise) is better than being a Financial Planner. My father-in-law had a college degree (in French!); he made it through the Depression by being a house and commercial painter as nobody was interested in parleying de francasey but enough people wanted paint slobbered on their walls for him to Make Good.  My grandfather (farfar) was a precision tool and die engineer/maker with his own shop; he benefited from a double-whammy: as people's ability to buy new collapsed they got REAL interested in repairing and making good with what they already had and companies were more interested in one-off contracts rather than hiring in-house.

  6.  Back to the Land.  Don't.  My grandfather (morfar) had a farm and they barely made it.  They found themselves in the position where they had to buy inputs at higher prices than the output could support.  

  7.  Repair, not Replace.  Here's a bright spot.  Planned obsolescence means a lot of people are going to have their stuff break down and they won't have the money to replace it.  Not only does that mean the old Repair Man will come back (job opportunity! job opportunity!) and people will be insistent the stuff they do buy is of high quality and repairable (business opportunity.)  This also means anything you buy, starting today, should be high quality, in the US that means "commercial" goods not "consumer" goods.

You'll notice I didn't say anything about Location.  The reason is simple: Your Mileage Will Vary.  It will vary too much to say anything worth saying.  

¹  Jerome excepted cuz he's Our Guy  ;-)

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 01:17:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ATinNM:
My grandfather (farfar)

Swedish ancestry?

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 02:32:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
On that side of the family my immediate ancestors (farfar and farmor) were first and (far) second generation Swedish.  

(Does that mean I have Right of Return?:-)    


Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 05:42:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Basically anyone can immigrate to Sweden.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 08:05:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Observe the little smiley-face emoticon thingie.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 09:19:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now available as a diary.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 04:54:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And it carries a 0% risk weighting according to Basel Capital Adequacy rules.

Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 05:53:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In other words, the Modest Proposal.

Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 05:52:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 05:08:02 AM EST
German 10-year yields dipped below the domestic rate of inflation briefly on Tuesday, for the first time since at least 1960

Clearly the markets are telling the ECB to slam on the brakes since German inflation is too high.

Economics is politics by other means

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 06:38:24 PM EST
Trichet today
With regard to price developments, euro area annual HICP inflation was 2.5% in July 2011, following 2.7% in June. The relatively high inflation rates seen over the past few months largely reflect higher energy and other commodity prices. Looking ahead, inflation rates are likely to stay clearly above 2% over the coming months. Upward pressure on inflation, mainly from energy and other commodity prices, is also still discernible in the earlier stages of the production process. It remains of paramount importance that the rise in HICP inflation does not translate into second-round effects in price and wage-setting behaviour and lead to broad-based inflationary pressures. Inflation expectations must remain firmly anchored in line with the Governing Council's aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.

Risks to the medium-term outlook for price developments remain on the upside. They relate, in particular, to higher than assumed increases in energy prices. Furthermore, there is a risk of increases in indirect taxes and administered prices that may be greater than currently assumed, owing to the need for fiscal consolidation in the coming years. Finally, upside risks may stem from stronger than expected domestic price pressures in the euro area.

Is it just me, or is he saying that fiscal consolidation will require higher taxes and that higher indirect taxes will cause inflation and that therefore the ECB may feel forced to raise interest rates in response to austerity policies?

Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Aug 4th, 2011 at 12:09:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, that's not just you. He's saying that plain as day.

What worries me more is that (a) he thinks it's appropriate to treat imported inflation (the €-zone is a net importer of raw materials) with interest rate hikes. It never is. And (b) that he believes (or pretends to believe) that there will be "second round effects" of this imported inflation. That's banksterspeak for "higher wages to keep abreast of inflation." To believe that a concerted push for across-the-board wage increases is possible - nevermind plausible - in the context of ten per cent un- and underemployment betrays such a staggering and fundamental failure to understand basic, basic human behaviour as to beggar belief.

Winter is coming.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Aug 4th, 2011 at 02:38:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
a staggering and fundamental failure to understand basic, basic human behaviour...

...seems to be a requirement for appointment to any central bank organization.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Aug 4th, 2011 at 06:06:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think he believes that a concerted push for across-the-board wage increases is possible in Germany.

He doesn't mind much about high inflation in, say, Greece and he knows that no wage increases seem possible there.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Fri Aug 5th, 2011 at 05:29:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah. So he is not an idiot. He is just opposed to solving the problem.

Well, that should not come as a major surprise to anybody who has been paying attention.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Aug 5th, 2011 at 04:27:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I would agree with "opposed to solving the problem" if I could grasp what problem he would like to solve. I think I and he, have a different evaluation of what constitutes a problem here... I mean, does he really give two damns if, say, youth unemployment remains at around 30% for the foreseeable future, around where I live, and the life expectancy drops?

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Fri Aug 5th, 2011 at 06:12:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry, my bad. That should have been problems, plural.

Of course he doesn't give two shits about Greek unemployment, or life expectancy for that matter. But the problem I was thinking about was the trade imbalance issue inherent to a Bancor-less fixed exchange rate regime.

Perhaps it would be more accurate to say that he doesn't want to solve any real problems at all, only the pseudo-problem of keeping German consumer goods inflation below some wholly arbitrary target value.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Aug 5th, 2011 at 06:30:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He just has other priorities. Do you have any idea with what kind of monster he wrestles on a regular basis?

Von überall könnte das Volk, Urbrut alles Undemokratischen, Zelle des Terrors, über die gewählten Hüter von Wachstum und Wohlstand® kommen. - flatter
by generic on Fri Aug 5th, 2011 at 10:24:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Economist interprets this as "The ECB realises inflation may not be Europe's biggest worry just now" and concludes:

European markets continue to drop, and bond yields continue to edge upward. It will take massive government intervention to stem the crisis, and even if euro-zone governments succeed there is a risk the euro-zone economy will follow its peripheral members into recession. If the euro zone does fall apart, a fitting epitaph might read, "The ECB feared 3% inflation".

That's the Economist, mind you...

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Fri Aug 5th, 2011 at 08:17:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Damn, they might actually interrupt their 150 year streak of being dead wrong about every important economic policy issue since the Irish Famine. Never thought I'd live to see that day.

If the euro zone does fall apart, a fitting epitaph might read, "The ECB feared 3% inflation".

European Tribune: Get your epitaphs two and a half months early.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Aug 5th, 2011 at 04:37:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Just looking at the front page of ElPais.com online...
[Spain's Finance Minister] Elena Salgado predicts that the market attack on the debt "may last for days"

The PM meets at La Moncloa with Salgado, Blanco [government spokesman] and Jauregui [Chief of Staff {?}]. The finance minister says "the situation is tense" but does not call it "very serious".

The King asks politicians to "close ranks"

The markets keep up the pressure on Spain's risk premium.

The spread over German Bunds settles at 389 basis points after peaking at 407. The Madrid and Milan stock exchanges clore in the red, like the main exchanges, after a rebound

Strong fall at Wall Street for fear of recession.

Brussels gets in motion because of the "unjustified" attack by the markets

Commission President Durão Barroso criticises the attacks on Spain and Italy - Zapatero and Van Rompuy advocate getting the aid to Greece started as soon as possible

Zapatero calls a meeting to follow the markets

Only the ECB can stop the speculative wave

Is it time for bwahahahahah, or <sob>?


Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 3rd, 2011 at 06:51:51 PM EST
EU Observer: Barroso raises alarm about severity of euro crisis
The top official in a letter sent to EU leaders on Wednesday (3 August) and made public by the commission on Thursday said new bailout measures agreed by the 17 eurozone countries in July "are not having their intended effect on the markets", after the cost of borrowing for Italy and Spain spiraled this week.

He added: "Whatever the factors behind the lack of success, it is clear that we are no longer managing a crisis just in the euro-area periphery. Euro-area financial stability must be safeguarded."

Barroso blamed in part "the undisciplined communication and the complexity and incompleteness of the 21st July package" for the escalation of the crisis.



Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Aug 4th, 2011 at 08:39:55 AM EST
European Commission: Statement by President Barroso on the euro area sovereign bond markets

"Developments in the sovereign bond markets of Italy and Spain are a cause of deep concern. These developments are clearly unwarranted on the basis of economic and budgetary fundamentals in these two Member States and the steps that they are taking to reinforce those fundamentals. In fact, the tensions in bond markets reflect a growing concern among investors about the systemic capacity of the euro area to respond to the evolving crisis.

The systemic nature of the sovereign debt crisis was recognised by the Heads of State and Government of the euro area at their meeting of 21 July. At that meeting, a unique solution for the crisis in Greece was found involving a partnership between the official and private creditors, but it was agreed that private sector involvement would not be a standard feature of the euro area's crisis management. Agreement was also reached on ground-breaking measures that will reinforce the euro area's systemic response to the crisis by enhancing the effectiveness of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), by reforming euro area governance structures and by adapting our working methods to the needs of crisis management with each institution playing its part. It is essential, therefore, that we move forward rapidly with the implementation of all of that has been agreed by the Heads of State and Government and send an unambiguous signal of the euro area's resolve to address the sovereign debt crisis with the means commensurate with the gravity of the situation.

The necessary technical work to implement the measures agreed on 21 July is already underway and will be completed as a matter of urgency. The Commission services are actively supporting the Member States in this technical work. Implementation of some of these measures will also require actions by national parliaments and today I am writing to the Heads of State and Government urging them to ensure that these actions are taken without delay."



Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Aug 4th, 2011 at 08:44:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is what Google ads is giving me at the top of my email inbox:
How to Play the EU debt - MoneyMorning.com/Euro_Defaults - The Euro is about to implode but that doesn't mean you can't profit.


Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Aug 4th, 2011 at 08:56:32 AM EST
El Pais headline WIN: The ECB lets Spain and Italy suffer
Trichet confirms that the program to alleviate the situation of countries in trouble in the debt markets is still active and buys Irish and Portuguese bonds, but not Spanish or Italian. The institution restores six-month unlimited liquidity.


Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Aug 4th, 2011 at 10:36:47 AM EST
Yanis Varoufakis: Why Italy? Why Spain? And why the EFSF's size does not matter:

In its attempt to preserve the PSD principle (the idea that all eurozone debts must be separable and attributable to a single member-state) Europe has conjured up a toxic monster by which to resolve an existentialist Crisis. The monster is of course no other than the EFSF and the Crisis is the negative dynamic that threatens credibly to deconstruct the eurozone. Why is the EFSF a monster that is more likely to destroy the eurozone than save it? Because it is an institution that, remarkably, manages, in the middle of a debt crisis, to boost the ratio of the debts that the solvent member-states must guarantee over their aggregate GDP increases even if the eurozone's aggregate debt and aggregate GDP remain the same (indeed, even if the eurozone's aggregate debt-to-GDP ratio is constant or falling!).


The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Fri Aug 5th, 2011 at 10:27:54 AM EST
of maybe $1 trillion by exploiting the very low 30 year rates. Could that be done, I mean, issuing $1 trillion of 30 year bonds without screwing up that part of the bond market (ie radically increasing rates)? Is the outstanding amount of 30 year US gubmint debt large enough to absorb such an increase in supply without going haywire (or having the Fed buy all the bonds)?

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Sat Aug 6th, 2011 at 01:46:58 PM EST
There are two unrelated questions here: The first is whether the US federal government can fund a US$ 1 tn expenditure given current bond rates. The answer to that question is yes: The US federal government can always fund any US$ expenditure, because the federal government prints US$.

The second question is whether the market for US Treasury 30 year bonds could absorb a 30 tn issue. The answer to that is "who cares?" The market for US treasuries serves no economic function, so you can simply fix the interest subsidy rate you want to pay to lazy money for hiding cash in their pillows, and then see how much lazy money gets put in bonds and how much stays in the mattresses. The real economy won't care one way or the other.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Aug 6th, 2011 at 02:09:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What would be wrong with having the Fed buy all the bonds?

Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Aug 6th, 2011 at 04:46:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It would spread CommieSocialist cooties all over the US and destroy our Precious Bodily Fluids.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Sat Aug 6th, 2011 at 05:15:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Indeed. For the sake of the argument, let's pretend the Fed won't be monetizing the debt. Would it work, or would it overwhelm the demand for 30 year debt entirely?

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Sat Aug 6th, 2011 at 06:42:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know.  It could go either way with the odds at 6/5 and pick 'em.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Sun Aug 7th, 2011 at 02:20:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Let's say you wanted to finance a stimulus (none / 0)
of maybe $1 trillion by exploiting the very low 30 year rates. Could that be done, I mean, issuing $1 trillion of 30 year bonds without screwing up that part of the bond market (ie radically increasing rates)?

The outcome of such a bond issue would depend strongly on how the money was spent. Use it to finance wind power, transmission lines, facilities co-located with wind farm that can turn peak wind energy into ammonia for fuel and fertilizer, etc. and it would be a bonanza. Use it to speculate in the existing commodities market and you may well lose half or more of the principal sum and tank the economy in the process.

Even better would be for the Treasury to simply finance renewable energy projects by simply crediting the accounts of the contractors on an ongoing basis. The only real "danger" would be driving up the cost of labor, which is not going to happen until there is close to full employment amongst those who can do such work. Even then that would be a benefit, not a problem, as the average wage for labor has been stagnant or declining for decades.

But that may be too much spent on a given sector. It might be better to spend that money over a few years and also spend on education, health care, and other needed investments. IIRCC, Robert Reich and others noted back in Jan '09 that the $700 billion stimulus was too little. I believe they indicated that about $2 trillion was needed. We spent far more, but all but the stimulus was directed to the financial sector.

If some bloggers are to be believed, this is being used by favored TBTFs to drive up the prices of stocks and commodities and, in particular, to prevent the markets from going down, (the Plunge Protection Team), and keep precious metals from going up, (Blythe Masters at JPM and other organizations).  The stock market going up gives the impression of a good economy, but not the substance. Many people would take the price of precious metals going up as an indication of devaluation of the US$.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Aug 7th, 2011 at 03:08:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree entirely on how to spend the money on stimulus, but the question is if you can borrow this much money on a 30 year basis.

If you have the Fed borrow the money you are essentially paying interest to your self, and hence might as well just cancel out the debt. That would essentially be the same thing as printing money to finance deficits. That has historically not been an entire good idea, being related to invasions of Poland and suchlike. Now, this might work a bit differently when you're under liquidity trap conditions, but still.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Sun Aug 7th, 2011 at 04:19:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think what matters is whether you get a return on the money invested. If you do the investment should not be inflationary, as the value it generates increases the size of the economy, whereas if the money is squandered or looted the money is just added to the total in circulation without providing an increase in the total wealth of the economy. Just as NCE doesn't take into account the role of debt in the economy, neither does it take into account the impact of the productive or unproductive use of that debt. It thus provides no larger justification for good underwriting, only seeing that the lender will be harmed if the loan is not repaid. But the overall economy is also harmed, especially when this is done on a large scale, as with the recent real estate bubble in the USA.

To Greenspan and Bernanke, debt was just transactions between various elements in the economy and made no overall difference. That is the basis on which Bernanke dismissed Irving Fisher's Theory of Debt Deflation as the cause of Great Depressions. Likewise, Greenspan denied the ability to spot bubbles until they burst. This is useful to the sociopaths running the banking system and is Exhibit A in the indictment of NCE as a faux economic theory whose real purpose is to disguise and obfuscate the predatory activity of billionaires feeding on all below them in the wealth pyramid.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Aug 7th, 2011 at 07:45:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Under an interest rate targeting central bank it makes no difference to inflation whether you print money or you print bonds (the sort of bonds you print or don't print might influence the yield curve, though).

If the state of the political economy is such that it can accommodate a US$ 1 tn expenditure on whatever, then it can accommodate said expenditure whether you associate it with bondholder subsidies or not.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Aug 8th, 2011 at 09:29:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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