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What happens when....?

by Sven Triloqvist Sun Aug 21st, 2011 at 02:11:20 PM EST

What happens when moviemaking can be decentralized?


I'd guess max. 5 years before photo- and psycho-realistic renderings of actors can be digitally simulated - whether from actor motion capture files or the usual model manipulation tools. And these files, along with, say, recorded dialogue files, can be distributed for processing. The use of almost 300 degree green studios, using various methods to line up with computer-generated environments, means those environments can also be shared as files - as they are now.

Many other post-production movie processes are already decentralized.

So if the actors can be created, the only bit left (you don't need the money people anymore) is the script, screenplay, storyboard, and direction.

Could these work without a hierarchy? Probably not movies as we know them now. But these possibilities are sure to create types of moving images that we've not experienced before.

All I can say is that if, in 1968, someone would have described moviemaking processes, channels and audiences of the 3rd millennium to me, I'd have asked him what he was smoking. I thought the 16 mm Coutant Eclair was a revolution.

Infrastructure always creeps up on you.

Display:
actors speach with emotion I think is still the tricky bit, unless you have come across something different

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Aug 21st, 2011 at 05:00:53 PM EST
That ends up as a plot device in The Diamond Age.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Mon Aug 22nd, 2011 at 02:05:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I've heard impressive Finnish text to speech, that has methods of marking inflections. But there is still a way to go before convincing speech in a wide rangeof 'personalities' is possible.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Aug 23rd, 2011 at 01:08:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It took a combination of the talent and craft of Andrew Serkis and the animators at Weta Digital to make Gollum convincing, to have the audience emotionally invest in the character.  I remain skeptical that level of engagement can be achieved 100% digitally.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Aug 23rd, 2011 at 01:39:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
More movies with stories that a dedicated enough group wants to see.

Like Browncoats: Redemption | A Firefly Fan Film for Charity

Q: What is "Browncoats: Redemption"?

A: "Browncoats: Redemption" is a fan-made film set in the Firefly/Serenity universe three months after Miranda.  To find out more, please see our synopsis and Mission Statement.

Q:  Your Mission Statement mentions that this project was crowdsourced.  What does that mean?
A: We outsourced tasks to over 100 Browncoat (Firefly fan) volunteers in the community (i.e., a "crowd") from the United States, Canada, and England through an open call for help using social media.

Now they were all nice and asked for permissions, but if the decentralisation reaches a level where the average slash-fic writer can add the scenes missing to an existing film... well, I do not they will ask for permission.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Sun Aug 21st, 2011 at 05:17:37 PM EST
What happens is you get MySpace for movies - plenty of talented people getting too little exposure, while a few cute novelty acts with teen appeal get all the (occasionally somewhat managed) viral attention.

I don't think music and movies matter any more. The current cultural heavy hitters are sportspeople, celebs of various kinds, traders and other billionaires, and 4chan.

Oh - and Nyan Cat:

You know you're living in meta land when sites about memes go viral themselves.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Aug 21st, 2011 at 07:40:05 PM EST
Should I assume that you have all seen this pair of videos?


I have tried the Songify app, and it's obvious that there has been a considerable amount of post-production work involved in making the above video...

by asdf on Sun Aug 21st, 2011 at 09:09:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think I re-broke a rib.

'tis strange I should be old and neither wise nor valiant. From "The Maid's Tragedy" by Beaumont & Fletcher
by Wife of Bath (kareninaustin at g mail dot com) on Mon Aug 22nd, 2011 at 04:19:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm really bothered by people breaking ribs over the next generation of MBA grads.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Ana´s Nin
by Crazy Horse on Mon Aug 22nd, 2011 at 04:48:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, she's not actually an MBA grad though...the whole thing is a hoax--or at least a budding actress trying (successfully) to get attention. Millions of hits on Youtube...

Funny as hell, though!

by asdf on Mon Aug 22nd, 2011 at 07:33:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The industry has been moving in that direction for a long time. What is needed now is a computer language to describe a scene. I thought about whether ballet notation could be adapted for this, but it's a lot more complicated that than.

Business opportunity!

by asdf on Sun Aug 21st, 2011 at 09:12:27 PM EST
I'm travelling - I'll reply when I can get online again.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Mon Aug 22nd, 2011 at 01:40:27 AM EST
Some interesting stuff about future here:

http://futurepredictions.com/2011/04/10/future-predictions-the-world-in-2030/

Seems incredible but...
------------------------
"The World in 2030: How Science will Affect Computers, Medicine, Jobs, Our Lifestyles and the Wealth of our Nations"
Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Dr. Michio Kaku is a theoretical physicist and the Henry Semat Professor at the City College of New York and the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, where he has taught for more than 30 years. He is a graduate of Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and earned his doctorate from the University of California at Berkeley.
----------------------

Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind...Albert Einstein

by vbo on Mon Aug 22nd, 2011 at 09:20:30 AM EST
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9. By 2030, most film actors will be out of work due to competition from cheap computer animated actors.

Computer Generated Imagery (CGI) technology will enable us to create movies with animated characters so lifelike that they become indistinguishable from humans, rendering actors (in film anyway) obsolete.
------------------

Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind...Albert Einstein

by vbo on Mon Aug 22nd, 2011 at 09:22:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know if I actually buy that idea. Currently, there's a script that provides a moderately detailed indication of what is to happen on the screen. Then they hire an actor, who brings a LOT of his own personality, style, movement patterns, etc. to the filming. Different actors give completely different results for the same script.

So if you could do this all with animation, somebody would still have to provide all that variability. Who?

by asdf on Mon Aug 22nd, 2011 at 02:43:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Writers.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Ana´s Nin
by Crazy Horse on Mon Aug 22nd, 2011 at 04:49:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I suspect they'll write the software, based on succesful actors. Probably based on successful DEAD actors, then they can pick up the cultural patrimony for free. You train the software with every film Marilyn Monroe made, and you've got Virtual Marilyn, who everyone will pay to see.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Aug 22nd, 2011 at 05:43:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
See S1m0ne
a 2002 science fiction drama film written, produced and directed by Andrew Niccol. It stars Al Pacino, Catherine Keener, Rachel Roberts, Winona Ryder and Rebecca Romijn.


Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 22nd, 2011 at 05:52:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
when he was a lad... I wonder why he lies about his age? unless he was actually about 15 when he was working in advertising and going out with my little sister...

She has told me that he used to tell her about a sort of paranoid obsession he had : that everyone around him were actors, and he was the only true human being... yep... Truman show.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Aug 22nd, 2011 at 06:02:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A piece of software that can do that might credibly demand to be accorded human rights.

It would certainly display greater consciousness than the majority of our elected officials.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Aug 23rd, 2011 at 07:05:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nah, I do not believe that. By the same logic, lousy Hollywood actors would long since have been replaced by better and cheaper actors.

The cinema is not that different from the circus:

- Come in, come in, see the amazing famous people you read about in magazines performing scenes we will tell you is great! Willfully ignore that the stories has been told so many times that you know the ending unless you activly block it! Deposit your energy markers at the door and hope that today it will be worth it!

For it to work you need to market the freaks, not replace the freaks with pictures of freaks. So I think that without the fame and glamour that is currently carried by the actors, Hollywood is done for. However, the contract terms might get worse the more disposable the actors get, as in if you do not perform you will be replaced by a CGI-character, the company owns the rights to your look anyway.

The interesting things will happen outside of were there are professional actors. If people can, they will make own movies with fake superstars, and if the companies can, they will hunt these pirates who steal the companies imaginary property with every law money can buy.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Tue Aug 23rd, 2011 at 06:11:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Leading edge Motion Capture:




She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Aug 22nd, 2011 at 06:25:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Writers.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Ana´s Nin
by Crazy Horse on Mon Aug 22nd, 2011 at 08:24:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Start with writers.  Writers are essential through-out the process.  

It also takes cinematographers, make-up artists, art direction, a director, producers, location manager, grips, electricians, carpenters, actors, continuity manager, script supervisor ...

Film is a team.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Aug 23rd, 2011 at 11:27:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I wrote a script with a lead character having snakes in his hair and seven crooks in his back. I wasn't thinking Harryhausen.

I'm thankful for the new technology. And nothing has changed, it's still about the story.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Ana´s Nin

by Crazy Horse on Tue Aug 23rd, 2011 at 05:02:38 PM EST
It is about story of course but it is also how the story has been "told". That's why we have A and B production etc. at any point in time.
Personally I see digital production as animation no matter how it looks and I would like to still have live actors performance. It's not only about "perfect acting", it is about inspiration and improvisation...
In Japan they have robots talking in a human voice to (old and lonely) people. Robot is also answering and asking questions. If you ask me (and probably these lonely people) I would rather talk to a person...


Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind...Albert Einstein
by vbo on Tue Aug 23rd, 2011 at 06:33:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And yes I do think that this experiment will fail and will be animation only. Also do not underestimate "celebrity culture". It is so bad at the moment that they have to create celebrities out of thin air. Kardashians and that stuff...For Christ sake people...masses are numbed in this era of rising stupidity...they need them to be numbed...

Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind...Albert Einstein
by vbo on Tue Aug 23rd, 2011 at 06:43:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The key to really decentralizing movie making will be cracking the problem of getting paid for distribution over the Internet.  My guess it will come from people in the computer industry who have "solved" digital piracy, mostly by getting their income stream in some other way.

What, exactly, "some other way" is remains a bit of a puzzlement.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Aug 24th, 2011 at 01:31:15 AM EST
If you can collect 42 495 dollars and 67 cents over a few months with nothing but a vague promise of being able to put more time into comics production, a decent team of moviemakers should be able to get money from those who want the film made. Didn't Ringo put up the money to get one of the Monty Python movies made, simply because he wanted to see it? Multiply that by thousands and you get the future.

With that in mind I think we will see more of serialised story-telling as that is a great way of keeping people's interest up.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Aug 24th, 2011 at 03:16:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Doesn't work for music. Won't work for movies.

You can get cash from crowd funding if you already have a brand or a completely new kind of project. But when world+dog are competing with you and you're trying to do something new and world+dog have YouTube-sized three minute attention spans, chances of getting a feature funded, finished and distributed are close to zero.

All of the successful feature-length fan projects that I know of use existing IP (Star Trek, etc) which is recognisable and pre-marketed.

This won't stop Wired etc confusing a handful of atypical tiny peak successes with a generally viable business model, and reporting the exceptions as The Hot New Thing.

But viable models are only viable when they can employ, rather than simply entertain and distract, a good few tens or hundreds of thousands of people.

I don't see virtual Hollywood doing that any time soon - if ever.

It's more likely the technology will be used in other more interactive ways.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Aug 24th, 2011 at 03:40:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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