European Tribune - Community, Politics & Progress.

What passes for good news these days

by Colman
Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 05:51:02 AM EST

It looks as if, in Ireland at least, the debt reduction rules in the proposed fiscal treaty are likely to be set in legislation rather than in the constitution. The "Fiscal Advisory Council", set-up to bolt the door once the horse has bolted, is advising that the rules aren't flexible enough so putting them in the constitution would be unwise.

I can't see the government enduring a referendum they're going to lose in the face of this, and the treaty has been written to accommodate them. This is good news, since it means that a later parliament can easily amend or delete the rules - overnight if necessary. Putting them in the constitution would require a referendum to amend them when it becomes clear even to the EPP that they're destroying the economy.

How's this going to play out elsewhere?

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What passes for good news these days | 6 comments (6 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: What passes for good news these days (4.00 / 2)

Daniel Cohn-Bendit two days ago:

Cohn-Bendit : «L'Europe négocie un traité dont elle n'a pas besoin» - Libération		Cohn-Bendit: 'Europe is negotiating a treaty which it does not need "- Libération interview
Ce traité créant une «union budgétaire» entre les Etats de la zone euro est-il nécessaire ?		Is the treaty creating a "fiscal union" between states in the euro area needed?
Pour le Parlement, absolument pas. Tout existe déjà dans les textes que nous avons adoptés l'an dernier, en particulier dans la réforme du Pacte de stabilité et le renforcement de la coordination des politiques économiques et budgétaires. Pour le surplus, il suffirait de modifier la législation existante. La seule chose qui nécessiterait un nouveau traité, c'est la constitutionnalisation, dans les législations nationales, du «frein à l'endettement» ou «règle d'or» [qui impose un retour à l'équilibre budgétaire, ndlr]. Mais ce traité ne réglera pas la question, car il y a d'une part des Etats qui ne le ratifieront pas et, d'autre part, des Etats qui ne pourront retranscrire cette règle d'or dans leur droit interne. Par exemple, en Finlande, il faut une majorité des quatre cinquièmes pour modifier la Constitution... Même chose aux Pays-Bas ou en Grèce. En France, il n'y a tout simplement pas de majorité politique pour une telle règle. On est dans le pur affichage politique : on négocie un traité dont on n'a pas besoin.		D C-B: For Parliament, absolutely not. Everything is already in the texts that we adopted last year, especially in the reform of the Stability Pact and the strengthening of the coordination of economic and fiscal policies. For the rest, it would suffice to amend existing legislation. The only thing that would require a new treaty is the entrenchment in national legislation, of the "debt brake" or "golden rule" [which requires a return to balanced budgets, note]. But this treaty will not solve the issue, because there are member states which will not ratify it, on the one hand, and on the other hand, states that can not enshrine this golden rule into their domestic law. For example, in Finland, you need a four-fifths majority to amend the constitution. Same thing in the Netherlands and Greece. In France, there is simply no political majority for such a rule. We are in the field of pure political display: we are negotiating a treaty we don't need.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 06:02:56 AM EST

Re: What passes for good news these days (4.00 / 3)

Paraphrasing Galbraith: there is the treaty which is negotiated not because there is a need to be met, but because it is necessary to create the impression that something is being done. Such treaties are more than a substitute for action. They are widely regarded as action.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 06:36:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Swedish treaty round-up (4.00 / 2)

Government (in minority) pushes that if Sweden gets an opt-out from actually following the rules in it we should join.

Leaderless Swedish Soc-dems appears to continue to reject the pact even if Sweden gets an opt-out. Maybe it is like Belgium, you need a leader to make stupid bargains.

The left party is and always have been opposed to EMU and points out time and again that it was they, not the right wing, who were right about it not working.

The greens I think are still opposed to EMU (even though they have dropped their demand that Sweden exits the EU).

The ugly party would be shooting a big hole in their foot if they supported something pushed by southerners who wants to buy all our holiday houses - Germans and such.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 06:32:22 AM EST

Re: Swedish treaty round-up (none / 0)

Things change quickly.

Soc-dems has a new leader as of today (for all practical purposes, coronation comes later). And they have made a deal with the government: If Sweden is not bound by any rules and if Sweden gets to attend all eurozone meetings, then Sweden will sign.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 06:23:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Swedish treaty round-up (none / 0)

Sweden wants to be like Germany, I see. That's smart.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 06:52:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What passes for good news these days (none / 1)

Spain alredy jumped on its own sword last September.

We're going to be the only idiots left (Germany doesn't count, they did it to themselves voluntarily and two years earlier) with a constitutional amendment.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 06:38:16 AM EST

What passes for good news these days | 6 comments (6 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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