Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 01:00:06 PM EST
To keep the GOP Iowa Caucus discussion in one place.
The GOP Iowa Caucuses is somewhat of a misnomer. It's better considered a primary with restricted voting hours.
If I could I'd lay out the rules as I did last time for the Dems but the GOP has ruled each caucus can make its own rules and I'm not THAT much of a hard-core election addict, willing to plow through and post how 1,774 caucuses have structured themselves.
And if I did, I doubt anybody would read it.
Polling has been volatile, especially over the last three months:
The Des Moines Register poll put the standings of the top three as of Dec 31:
Santorum has been an 'also-ran' in Iowa until the last week. His support has surged:
What makes Santorum's growth spurt particularly striking is his last-second rise: He averaged 10 points after the first two nights of polling, but doubled that during the second two nights. Looking just at the final day of polling, he was just one point down from Romney's 23 percent on Friday.
As the rest of the Clown Parade collapsed and the large Undecided bloc started to decide for him.
Of the top three Santorum leads with 76% of his supporters saying they are definitely going to vote, Romney is next with 58%, and Paul - surprisingly, given the CW about his supporters - in third with 56%.
Given all that, and the fact Romney has continued to remain stuck at 24% since forever, I predict Santorum will pull an upset.