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Iowa Caucus Attractor

by ATinNM Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 01:00:06 PM EST

To keep the GOP Iowa Caucus discussion in one place.


The GOP Iowa Caucuses is somewhat of a misnomer.  It's better considered a primary with restricted voting hours.  

If I could I'd lay out the rules as I did last time for the Dems but the GOP has ruled each caucus can make its own rules and I'm not THAT much of a hard-core election addict, willing to plow through and post how 1,774 caucuses have structured themselves.

And if I did, I doubt anybody would read it.  

Polling has been volatile, especially over the last three months:  

The Des Moines Register poll put the standings of the top three as of Dec 31:

Romney 24%
Paul 22%
Santorum 15%

Santorum has been an 'also-ran' in Iowa until the last week.  His support has surged:

What makes Santorum's growth spurt particularly striking is his last-second rise: He averaged 10 points after the first two nights of polling, but doubled that during the second two nights. Looking just at the final day of polling, he was just one point down from Romney's 23 percent on Friday.

As the rest of the Clown Parade collapsed and the large Undecided bloc started to decide for him.

Of the top three Santorum leads with 76% of his supporters saying they are definitely going to vote, Romney is next with 58%, and Paul - surprisingly, given the CW about his supporters - in third with 56%.  

Given all that, and the fact Romney has continued to remain stuck at 24% since forever, I predict Santorum will pull an upset.

Display:
Romney ignored Iowa until the last month and is trying to "buy" the caucuses by running attack ads.  


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 01:02:33 PM EST
I voted for Santorum in my own prediction poll as well, but it really is an extraordinarily volatile election.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 02:26:17 PM EST
The last time I looked at the National numbers the majority candidate (at 37%) was "Somebody Else" and "Could Change My Mind" was running fourth at 23%.

Put another way: "None of the Buggers" runs away with 60% support.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 03:02:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Twitter / @fivethirtyeight: Ron Paul gets as much Goog ...
Ron Paul gets as much Google search traffic in Iowa as the other GOP candidates combined. bit.ly/sb1Kf6

Twitter / @fivethirtyeight: This is one case where I'd ...

This is one case where I'd bet against my own model. I REALLY like Santorum's odds tonight, especially vs his price at Intrade.


Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 02:42:42 PM EST
Nate Silver predicts (Vote percentage - Chance to Win):

Romney: 21.8%  -  42%
Paul:    21%     -     34%
Santorum: 19.3% - 20%

I don't know how the media are going to spin the results, but these numbers are horrible for the GOP going into a presidential election.  The majority reaction among the base is for all of the candidates is, "eh?"

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 02:56:19 PM EST
Let's be honest: this is a bizarro electorate in a bizarro state using a plainly stupid method to choose between some of the maddest contestants in the history of bad choices

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 03:56:41 PM EST
You say that like it's a bad thing.

Party politics in every country is a mish-mash of self-seeking political hacks, whacked-out looney-tunes, financial interests, good people, and bizarre decisions lying at the end of a historic stream of previous self-seeking political hacks, whacked-out looney-tunes, financial interests, good people, and bizarre decisions.

I mean, I don't see the Labour Party doing an outstanding job of selecting candidates either, m'dear.

OR the Swedish Social Democrat Party.

OR the German Greens.

OR the True Finns, for that matter.

I take my stand on a rest-assured Truth:

Whoever the candidate is, no matter how that candidate is selected, it is highly likely to be someone you don't want to have in the office although, occasionally, the system fucks-up or through mere chance a good person DOES manage to break-through the crap.

And it's the latter that keeps me going.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 04:20:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
occasionally, the system fucks-up or through mere chance a good person DOES manage to break-through the crap.

And, in half of these instances, that successful candidate who eventually becomes president is then roundly criticized by all and generally repudiated later by his party. With our collective psychological debilities it is amazing we have managed to create societies as complex and long live as we have.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 10:14:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's putting it mildly...


You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 04:20:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's Up-Market Helen™...

;)

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 04:23:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
May I humbly suggest hitting yourself in the head with a brick three or four times.  It is only then a full, and deep, grasp of the US political system may be achieved.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 04:27:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No brain, no pain?

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 04:38:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
More a case that, as your skull reverberates with the third thwack about the head, the buzzing oblivion that envelopes you will allow you the merest glimpse of the state of mind of the average Fox viewer

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 04:54:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
as well as having no teeth (in that inimitable ATinNM phrase).

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 05:20:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
:-)

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 05:35:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The suggested procedure will allow you to "Achieve Oneness" with the Critical Thinking and other cognitive skills of the average US voter.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 04:55:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This outburst will probably have no effect, but it's interesting in the context of Krugman's piece on Romney running a "post-truth campaign".

Iowa caucus 2012: GOP presidential candidates make their final push - live | World news | guardian.co.uk

2pm: Finally, after suffering a million-dollar blitz of negative ads from a Mitt Romney-supporting political action committee [Pac], Newt Gingrich drops the L-word on Romney.

Speaking to Norah O'Donnell on CBS's Early Show this morning, Gingrich went nuclear. Let's roll the tape:

Norah O'Donnell: You scolded Mitt Romney, his friends who are running this super Pac that has funded [the attack ads]. And you said of Mitt Romney, "Somebody who will lie to you to get to be president will lie to you when they are president."

I have to ask you: Are you calling Mitt Romney a liar?

Newt Gingrich: Yes.

O'Donnell: You're calling Mitt Romney a liar?

Gingrich: Well, you seem shocked by it. Yes. I mean, what else could you say?

O'Donnell: Why are you saying he's a liar?

Gingrich: This is a man whose staff created the Pac. His millionaire friends fund the Pac. He pretends he has nothing to do with the Pac. It's baloney. He's not telling the American people the truth. It's just like his pretense that he's a conservative.

Here's a Massachusetts moderate who has tax-paid abortions in Romneycare; puts Planned Parenthood in Romneycare; raises hundreds of millions of dollars of taxes on businesses; appoints liberal judges to appease Democrats; and wants the rest of us to believe somehow he's magically a conservative.

I just think he ought to be honest with the American people and try to win as the real Mitt Romney, not try to invent a poll-driven consultant-guided version that goes around with talking points.

So tell us what you really think Mr Gingrich?

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 04:39:13 PM EST
That's interesting.

Gingrich is, I think, hitting Romney exactly where he is most vulnerable wrt the average mouth-breathing, Fundie, crackpot, "Most Likely," GOP primary voter.

It's not only interesting, it's potentially VERY bad news for the GOP, up and down the ticket.  If Gingrich starts getting traction with this the chances of the GOP exploding into a faction-fight increases dramatically.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 05:01:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's a Hobson's choice which reminds me of the old joke:

Man goes to Hell and is given a choice of three torture rooms in which to spend eternity. If he rejects a room he can't go back.

The first room has hundreds of people standing on their heads on a concrete floor, screaming in pain. He rejects it.

The second room has hundreds of people standing on their heads, but using a cushion. Thinking softness he rejects it and goes for the last room.

He is relieved to be shown into a huge room filled with about a foot of sewage, with people sitting at tables drinking tea. The smell is gagging, but all in all he's happy that it's the best choice.

"Alright lads, teabreak's over - back on your heads"

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 05:30:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He will either win outright or get with Santorum and Paul two very weak competitors. Paul is only appealing to one sub-culture of republicans an Santorum has no money, no organization and is fixated in old culture war battles in year where the economy will be preeminent.

Bachmann will be outright finished after today. Gringrich, Perry and Huntsman will stagger on until New Hampshire.

by IM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 07:06:28 PM EST
So he did win.
by IM on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 02:46:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]



She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 08:12:32 PM EST
This is just so quaint!   Green post-its and a yellow legal pad!  

http://www.c-span.org/Live-Video/C-SPAN/

by ElaineinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 08:45:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And here's the 2012 GOP Presidential Nominating Campaign Official® Theme™ Song©:



She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 08:15:11 PM EST
Ron Paul    9    42.9%   
Rick Perry    4    19%   
Mitt Romney    3    14.3%   
Rick Santorum    3    14.3%   
Newt Gingrich    2    9.5%

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 08:43:25 PM EST
Oh, and:

Buddy Roemer 0% (Who?)

Herman Cain 0%  (Why are they bothering?)

Jon Huntsman 0%  (HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!)

Michele Bachmann  0%  (Crazy Lady)


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 08:46:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Rick Santorum    463    26.2%   
Ron Paul    406    22.9%   
Mitt Romney    318    18%   
Newt Gingrich    286    16.2%   
Rick Perry    169    9.5%

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 08:48:24 PM EST
Rick Santorum    1,229    24.2%   
Ron Paul    1,204    23.7%   
Mitt Romney    1,132    22.3%   
Newt Gingrich    690    13.6%   
Rick Perry    460    9%

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 08:58:12 PM EST
Ron Paul    3,821    24.1%   
Mitt Romney    3,650    23%   
Rick Santorum    3,636    22.9%   
Newt Gingrich    2,058    13%   
Rick Perry    1,571    9.9%

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 09:13:15 PM EST
Ron Paul    4,440    24%   
Rick Santorum    4,292    23.2%   
Mitt Romney    4,183    22.6%   
Newt Gingrich    2,460    13.3%   
Rick Perry    1,817    9.8%

I'm wondering what caucuses are in.  If Des Moines - the state capitol - has reported then Romney is in trouble.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 09:26:56 PM EST
Rick Santorum    6,067    23.2%   
Mitt Romney    6,060    23.2%   
Ron Paul    6,018    23%   
Newt Gingrich    3,502    13.4%   
Rick Perry    2,733    10.4%

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 09:32:37 PM EST
 30% reporting
Mitt Romney  7,425 23.1%
 Ron Paul 7,375 23.0%
 Rick Santorum 7,358 22.9%
Newt Gingrich 4,248 13.2%
by ElaineinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 09:40:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Mitt Romney
7,844 23.4%

Rick Santorum 23.0%

Ron Paul 22.8%

Newt Gingrich 13.2%

Rick Perry 10.2%

Michele Bachmann 5.8%

Looks as if Michele and Rick Perry are fading away.  
Polk county, which is Des Moines has Paul ahead, but with 27% reporting, and and Iowa City, (U of Iowa), has Paul with 36 to Romney's 29 with 28% reporting.  

by ElaineinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 09:52:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Mitt Romney    7,844    23.4%   
Rick Santorum    7,726    23%   
Ron Paul    7,655    22.8%   
Newt Gingrich    4,440    13.2%   
Rick Perry    3,433    10.2%

Romney has a 118 vote lead.  

Santorum has, almost exactly, a gain equal with Gingrich's loss wrt pre-election polling.

Jesus, this is tight.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 09:46:33 PM EST
Romney is lucky the GOP Conservative, Fundie, and Evangelical vote is split.  Otherwise he'd be losing by 28.8%.  This really doesn't bode well for him going into South Carolina and Florida.  I bet Bachmann will drop out and, maybe, Perry.  

As the candidates drop out, and the base vote consolidates, Romney is facing a rough time.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 10:00:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Rick Santorum 24.1%
Mitt Romney 23.9%
Ron Paul 21.9%
by ElaineinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 10:08:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Seen a comment that paul isnt taking enough votes in tbe college areas and  the parts of the state expected to be heavily santorum voting have yet to call results.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 10:20:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
48% reporting.  Most of western Iowa (Santorum territory) yet to report and:

Rick Santorum    13,339    24.3%   
Mitt Romney    13,011    23.7%   
Ron Paul    11,972    21.8%   
Newt Gingrich    7,248    13.2%   
Rick Perry    5,544    10.1%

Early Press: "Three-Way Tie in Iowa"

"GOP in Disarray" can't be that far behind.

(hopehopehopehope)

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 10:21:43 PM EST
59% reporting:

Rick Santorum    15,973    24.4%   
Mitt Romney    15,389    23.5%   
Ron Paul    14,180    21.7%   
Newt Gingrich    8,727    13.3%   
Rick Perry    6,867    10.5%

and wholly-she-it

Expect Paul numbers to jump as the University towns: Ames and Iowa City, start to report.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 10:49:17 PM EST
84% reporting:

Rick Santorum    26,443    24.6%   
Mitt Romney    26,398    24.5%   
Ron Paul    22,728    21.1%   
Newt Gingrich    14,244    13.2%   
Rick Perry    11,099    10.3%

Less than 200 votes separates Romney and Santorum.

If it hadn't been for Perry and Bachmann 'Frothy-Man' would be the decisive winner.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 10:53:25 PM EST
Reported that with 88% the gap is down to 35 votes

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 10:55:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
89%:

Mitt Romney    27,101    24.7%   
Rick Santorum    26,976    24.6%   
Ron Paul    23,155    21.1%   
Newt Gingrich    14,576    13.3%   
Rick Perry    11,279    10.3%

Romney by 125 votes.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 11:11:04 PM EST
92% and its down to 13 votes

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 11:18:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In 2008 Mitt Romney got 29,949 votes in Iowa. He's now at 27,101 with 90% of votes counted. What momentum?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 11:22:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Romney spent millions on attack ads and didn't gain nuthin' and that was "neutral territory."  Romney looks to win New Hampshire - big whoop - but then it's South Carolina ... which is unfriendly territory and where he has to convince people to vote for him.

A goal he hasn't achieved in five years of campaigning.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 11:45:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
93% reporting:

Rick Santorum    28,102    24.7%   
Mitt Romney    28,003    24.6%   
Ron Paul    24,199    21.2%   
Newt Gingrich    15,120    13.3%   
Rick Perry    11,724    10.3%

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 11:28:27 PM EST
Santorum Lead 54 with 95% reporting

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 11:42:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
96% reporting:

Rick Santorum    28,958    24.6%   
Mitt Romney    28,879    24.6%   
Ron Paul    25,044    21.3%   
Newt Gingrich    15,580    13.3%   
Rick Perry    12,093    10.3%

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 11:43:38 PM EST
Its being projected that the final result will be romney by less than 85 votes

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 11:56:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Perry -returning to Texas to assess campaign. looks like he's gone.

Bachman staying in though.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 12:09:02 AM EST
And its being reported mccain to endorse romney tomorrow.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 12:12:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
LOL

As if that will do him any good.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 12:49:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
well there was me thinking it was a sign of panic. In theory he's fairly certain to win he next state, so you'd want to play the major figures support after that election to make your nomination seem to be inevitable. McCain is a major figure in the party, so to throw his support in now means they were rather desperate to gain some momentum in todays news cycle, whereas it otherwise would have seemed all Santorum. having such a major figure come out so early to me is a bit of a shock and says they were worried that Romney was going to get utterly blown away.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 09:20:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
LOL

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 6th, 2012 at 06:04:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was sure it would be the other way round.
by IM on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 02:04:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bachman has apparently cancelled her trip to South Carolina and called a press conference for 10 AM. looks like she's calling a day for her campaign

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 08:18:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
99% reporting and here's the results:

Rick Santorum    29,662    24.6%   
Mitt Romney    29,657    24.5%   
Ron Paul    25,926    21.5%   
Newt Gingrich    16,002    13.2%   
Rick Perry    12,442    10.3%   
Michele Bachmann 6,031  5%

Compared to the Des Moines Register Poll:

Romney 24%
Paul 22%
Santorum 15%
Gingrich 12%
Perry 11%
Bachmann 7%

so Gingrich did a little better than expected and Santorum out-preformed.  

Iowa has done its job and winnowed the field.   

Perry has said he is going back to Texas and "consider if there is a path to victory."  Which means he's out.  Bachmann hasn't said anything - yet - but I figure she's going to pack it in as well.  That's 15.3% of the Not-Romney vote freed-up.  Santorum has got zilch outside of Iowa so figure those votes will move to Gingrich.  Ron Paul has hit his high point and while The Coot in the Suit will stay in he will become more irrelevant as time goes by.

Looking at the numbers another way:

Romney: 24.6%
Paul: 21.5%
Not-Romney: 53.1%

Which ain't good for Mittens.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 12:49:12 AM EST
Yes, but isn't Santorum - Paul doesn't counts - a very weak competitor?
by IM on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 02:11:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, so all in all it's  perfect result. Half the GOP have effectively said they don't want Romney, but his only challenger hasn't got the organisation.

Which probably means that the crazy gang will still be kicking and spitting at each other till March at least. A three way PUMA going into November.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 03:41:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
He will pick up the Perry and Bachmann support...

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 03:47:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
100% Reporting:

Rick Santorum    29,908    24.6%   
Mitt Romney    29,874    24.5%   
Ron Paul    26,097    21.4%   
Newt Gingrich    16,161    13.3%   
Rick Perry    12,536    10.3%

Santorum wins by 34 votes.

Given all that, and the fact Romney has continued to remain stuck at 24% since forever, I predict Santorum will pull an upset.

Hurray for me; I done called it.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 01:16:30 AM EST
What do the second preferences of Perry and Palin voters look like? Maybe a 2:1 split for Santorum/Gingrich and zilch for the rest? This would put things at

Santorum 35%
Romney 25%
Paul 20%
Gingrich 20%

And Romney is history unless Santorum crashes out of money. And even then Gingrich might pick up the Santorum vote.

Assuming the GOP establishment goes all out with attack ads on Not Romney, can they prevent them from getting enough delegates before Super Tuesday and causing a brokered convention?

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 08:55:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From the little I can find Santorum has limited funds ($1.2 million or so) and no organization.  Until he gets a lot of both, I don't see him lasting.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 11:05:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Perhaps he will get money quick now, having his 15 minutes. But to build an organisation you need time and I don't think he has the time in the next primaries.
by IM on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 11:17:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Santorum is unelectable.  He wants to ban contraceptives and his other ideas go on to be even weirder.  He's so strange he lost re-election by 20 points in a Pennsylvania Senate race which, for a Republican, is a feat of historic note.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 10:24:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, but that is not the point. Do republican primary voters think he is unelectable too? After all republican primary voters are more right-wing then ever.
by IM on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 04:39:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If one can believe news reports, the majority of GOP voters (in the sixty percentile IIRC) think Romney is the most electable.

Two problems with that:

  1.  Whether the majority of GOP primary voters think that is up in the air since it is very difficult, in these kind of polls, to get to sample only GOP primary voters

  2.  Placing "Romney is the most electable" on a GOP primary voter's Decision Making Hierarchy of Value.  Agreement with the statement is not necessarily predictive of how a person will vote, it's something that has to be proven.
 

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 12:33:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Whoops!

This morning the results are:

Mitt Romney    30,015    24.6%   
Rick Santorum    30,007    24.5%   
Ron Paul    26,219    21.4%   
Newt Gingrich    16,251    13.3%   
Rick Perry    12,604    10.3%

So Romney by 8 votes.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 10:39:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Let's have a recount!

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 10:48:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, no, I'm not going into that Bush with you.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 04:14:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]


tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 02:20:22 PM EST
All UrRope R belong 2 Iowa

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 05:14:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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