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Tuesday Open Thread

by afew Tue Oct 2nd, 2012 at 11:52:24 AM EST

Accept no imitations


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Or the counterfeit police will do their counterfeit job.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Oct 2nd, 2012 at 11:53:26 AM EST

From here

Since reunification, more people born in France than in Germany, and the trend is strengthening .

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Oct 2nd, 2012 at 12:17:16 PM EST
Will not source this right now, but IIRC, France is an odd case among the demographic transitions in Europe. Starting (ie death rates coming down) before the industrial revolution and being very long (ie birth rates going down to very low slower) but with a total smaller populaton multiplier (ie early birth rates coming down faster) compared to neighbouring countries. So numerous generations of smaller growth rather then  massive growth for a few generations. So I am wondering if this still an effect.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!
by A swedish kind of death on Tue Oct 2nd, 2012 at 05:10:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Unification day tomorrow. Bundesland ceremony was here in Bremen last year, don't know which city this year. Drinking numbers are up at Oktoberfest, including unconscious bodies and attempted stolen Mass's. Michael Ballack is retiring. CH has sore legs. Meerwind and Global Tech I remain in construction.

will drink wine with new friends from "don't call it Frisco." that's all for now. Wait, here's a photo of a good friend, publisher of Last Gasp Comix, Ron T. It's his birthday today, i miss all the times we had/have.




"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Tue Oct 2nd, 2012 at 01:09:36 PM EST
Hope you have recovered, or does it still hurt?

Holiday is the word: I'm in Spain, have swum for hours in the Mediterranean today, but Wifi is lousy, so don't expect me too often the next days.

by Katrin on Tue Oct 2nd, 2012 at 03:02:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
yes, still hurts, but no worry.

Sad you must swim in the Yurp sea, when yoiu could be in Hamburg in the wonderful present rain.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Tue Oct 2nd, 2012 at 06:55:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Accept no limitations

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Oct 2nd, 2012 at 01:31:37 PM EST
Booted up Motion today for the first time in ages. It's rather amazing video compositing software - now a standard tool in edit and videographic suites. Another interface with a slow learning curve. It is logical and well laid out. Anyone who has used timeline manipulation will be able to use it more or less right away.

But the more I delve into it, the less I seem to know. Typical.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Oct 2nd, 2012 at 01:44:28 PM EST
The learning curve for these things is probably reverse hockey-shaped. Initial intense sense of control, then the plummet into ignorance followed by a slow plod that is so extremely long that the curvature of the Earth affects the metrics.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Oct 2nd, 2012 at 01:48:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You have captured the difference between Microsoft and Apple. Both spend incomprehensibly huge numbers of hours of programmer time building really complicated systems, but Apple tries to hide as much complexity as possible while Microsoft adds more and more training courses to their library in the hopes that someone out there gives a hoot...
by asdf on Tue Oct 2nd, 2012 at 04:18:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC News - Liquid air 'offers energy storage hope'

The process follows a number of stages:

  1. "Wrong-time electricity" is used to take in air, remove the CO2 and water vapour (these would freeze otherwise)
  2. the remaining air, mostly nitrogen, is chilled to -190C (-310F) and turns to liquid (changing the state of the air from gas to liquid is what stores the energy)
  3. the liquid air is held in a giant vacuum flask until it is needed
  4. when demand for power rises, the liquid is warmed to ambient temperature. As it vaporizes, it drives a turbine to produce electricity - no combustion is involved

IMechE says this process is only 25% efficient but it is massively improved by co-siting the cryo-generator next to an industrial plant or power station producing low-grade heat that is currently vented and being released into the atmosphere.

The heat can be used to boost the thermal expansion of the liquid air.

More energy is saved by taking the waste cool air when the air has finished chilling, and passing it through three tanks containing gravel.

The chilled gravel stores the coolness until it is needed to restart the air-chilling process. Delivering durability

Highview believes that, produced at scale, their kits could be up to 70% efficient, and IMechE agrees this figure is realistic.

"Batteries can get 80% efficiency so this isn't as good in that respect," explains Dr Fox.

"But we do not have a battery industry in the UK and we do have plenty of respected engineers to produce a technology like this.

"What's more, it uses standard industrial components - which reduces commercial risk; it will last for decades and it can be fixed with a spanner."

In the future, it is expected that batteries currently used in electric cars may play a part in household energy storage.

But Richard Smith, head of energy strategy for National Grid, told BBC News that other sorts of storage would be increasingly important in coming decades and should be incentivised to commercial scale by government.

He said: "Storage is one of four tools we have to balance supply and demand, including thermal flexing (switching on and off gas-fired power stations); interconnections, and demand-side management. Ultimately it will be down to economics."

Mr Dearman, who also invented the MicroVent resuscitation device used in ambulances, told BBC News he was delighted at the success of his ideas.

He said he believed his liquid air engine would prevail against other storage technologies because it did not rely on potentially scarce materials for batteries. "I have been working on this off and on for close on 50 years," he told BBC News.

"I started when I was a teenager because I thought there wouldn't be enough raw materials in the world for everyone to have a car. There had to be a different way. Then somehow I came up with the idea of storing energy in cold.

"It's hard to put into words to see what's happening with my ideas today."

the simplest ideas take the longest to gestate... there is a lot about melting salt as a way to store juice, but this is a first for me, this method.

the story itself is absurdly charming.

It's a fine line between homage, parody, and consumer opportunism. Jess Walter

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Oct 2nd, 2012 at 02:34:41 PM EST
Ultimately it will be down to economics.

Given the current state of economics this will mean that the decision will be based on who (with significant political connections) has a low cost (for now and arguably for the next few years) source for batteries in China or elsewhere. Sadly. Better to base the decision on something else, even national security.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Oct 2nd, 2012 at 05:41:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Arrested Man Snags Pics Of Cops Allegedly Searching His iPhone Without Subpoena: Gothamist

Remember the guy who got a ticket for running a red light while his vehicle was in police custody? His story gets weirder. In August, Rashad Lewis got a ticket in the mail for running a red light on a day when he was in jail and his Mercedes-Benz was supposed to be impounded--he alleges that police took his car for a joyride after pulling him over outside Bloomingdales on a routine traffic violation and finding allegedly bogus credit cards. Now Lewis claims the cops also tried to take his iPhone for an illegal joyride, and he says he's got the pics to prove it.

Lewis shared the photos with DNAinfo, and says they were emailed to him through an app called IGotYa, which automatically snaps photos of anyone trying to use the phone without the correct access code and emails them to the phone's owner. Police are required to obtain a subpoena to search someone's phone except in cases of action movie-level emergency, like when "terrorists" seize Nakatomi Plaza or Papa John's has an urgent pizza special. Credit card fraud doesn't typically fall into this category.



It's a fine line between homage, parody, and consumer opportunism. Jess Walter
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Oct 2nd, 2012 at 04:15:37 PM EST
The Iowa Electronic Markets -- which were sort of Intrade before there was Intrade -- have Obama winning the election 54/45.

That would be pretty ugly.

Anybody know what the bookies in the UK and Ireland have it at (if they do margins)?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Oct 2nd, 2012 at 05:00:23 PM EST
well they don't have margins, but they are doing Electoral college votes,

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It's not a question of whether Obama will win but the size of the victory

The big political betting story of the days has been the activity and movement on PaddyPower's electoral colllege vote market in November's White House election.

This morning the firm was offering 5/6 that Obama would win 319.5 electoral college votes or above and 5/6 that he'd get below. Given the way the polls have been going in the battleground states this seemed like a great bet.

Peter the Punter mentioned it in on the thread and shortly afterwards the firm increased the threshold to 329.5. Now it's edged up even further to 334.5.

At that level Obama would need an overall lead over Romney 128 ECVs.

If you look today

Obama's Electoral College Votes - US Politics Betting Odds - Paddy Power

Singles Only. Applies to the total number of electoral college votes out of 538 that the official election night state results show for Barack Obama in the 2012 US presidential election. Over (334.5) 5/6 Under (334.5) 5/6


Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Oct 2nd, 2012 at 06:29:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So they've basically arbitraged away the 15 EVs, I guess?  (No idea how betting works on that kind of thing.)

334.5 sounds like a fair bet.  I think I'd put my money on about 300 if I were a betting type.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Oct 2nd, 2012 at 08:16:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well theyre saying that 334.5 falls in the middle of their spread range

More traditional bookmakers are placing the most likely result as Obama 330-350 on 7/4 and only a Romney scrape in coming in at less than 10/1 the next band of Romeny results (290-309) being seen as less likely at the moment than any other Obama result including him getting 410+

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/college-votes

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Oct 2nd, 2012 at 09:00:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This what PaddyPower tells me:
AVVERTENZA - SITO NON RAGGIUNGIBILE

In applicazione del decreto dell'Amministrazione autonoma dei monopoli di Stato (AAMS) del 2 gennaio 2007, disciplinante la rimozione dei casi di offerta in assenza di autorizzazione, attraverso rete telematica, di giochi, lotterie, scommesse o concorsi pronostici con vincite in denaro, con il quale è stata data attuazione all'art. 1, comma 50, della Legge 27 dicembre 2006, n° 296, il sito richiesto non è raggiungibile poiché sprovvisto delle autorizzazioni necessarie per operare la raccolta di giochi in Italia.

L'elenco degli operatori autorizzati al gioco telematico è disponibile sul sito istituzionale www.aams.gov.it.

At least we don't have GEMA here.
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Wed Oct 3rd, 2012 at 02:35:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Two things. First, an ad on the radio offering a FREE seminar on flipping houses in Sac, "a prime market" "Don't miss out on this great opportunity to make a fortune with minimal risk!" Second, an article in the Sac Bee saying that people are missing out on the wealth boom offered in the stock market and real estate.

So, just in time for next year's Depression, let's see if the few people who were smart enough not to get snagged in the last bullshit will haul their bucks out of their matresses (I'm one) to get nailed this time.

Sorry guys.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wp4O7v5320

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Tue Oct 2nd, 2012 at 05:03:45 PM EST
The Best Political minds 'round here thought Romney should make this:

his Look to appeal to Hispanic voters.

He went ... orange (?):


Romney Before             Romney After

[Note: I have lived in the southwest most of my life and I've NEVER, ever, seen that color on anybody: Anglo, Hispano, Mexican, Costa Rican, Cuban, Honduran, Puerto Rican, etc. etc. etc.]

It didn't work.

Obama has gone from 69% support to 73%.  Mitt has gone from 24% to 21%.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Oct 2nd, 2012 at 07:29:08 PM EST
If Latinos become a hardcore Dem constituency at those kinds of numbers, the GOP is finished as a national party.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Oct 2nd, 2012 at 08:14:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't see how the GOP is going to appeal to their mouth breathing, knuckle dragging, bigoted base and Hispanics.  An ethnic group too far, methinks.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Tue Oct 2nd, 2012 at 08:44:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The west Coast Main Line Franchising has fallen apart tonight, Governemt incompetence will be all over the papers big time tomorrow (after Ed at the labour party conference called them a shower of U-turning idiots)

Virgins contract cannot be extended, as by law only a single extension period can be given, and The government used that up from what I have been reading so that the new franchise wasn't establishing itself in the run up to the Olympics

So come the end of the year, WCML reverts to Direct Government control. its being suggested that re-franchising can't be run till end of inquiry into whats gone wrong, so twelve months from now before new Franchisee in control, and three more franchises run out before the end of next year, which will also be delayed by this.

May endf up with a re-nationalised railway out of this. :)

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Oct 2nd, 2012 at 09:10:18 PM EST
Sadly no chance of re-nationalisation. But it's fun to see that they messed up.

If I were to place a bet on what went wrong, somebody high up in the chain (at the top?) accepted a large amount of money to "fix" the result, but wasn't very subtle about how they did it and the most cursory of examination revealed it.

cos that's how British government works

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Oct 3rd, 2012 at 03:04:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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